Zimbabwe Will Collapse In Six Months

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Admiral Valdemar
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Zimbabwe Will Collapse In Six Months

Post by Admiral Valdemar »

BBC News wrote:Zimbabwe 'collapse in six months'

Zimbabwe will collapse within six months, possibly leading to a state of emergency, says a leaked briefing report for aid workers in the country.


Rampant inflation will mean shops and services can no longer function and people would resort to barter, it said.

"The memorandum is talking about a situation where there is no functioning government or a total breakdown," an unnamed aid worker told the UK Times.

Zimbabwe's inflation is already 3,714% - the highest rate in the world.

Business quotes were now valid for just one day or even one hour, said the report written by consultants and sent to workers at the United Nations and other aid agencies.

Several organisations contacted by the BBC News website denied commissioning the report.

Some firms were already partly paying their workers in food, rather than money, it said.

Shops were doubling their prices twice a month, so they could purchase replacement goods.

If this continues, "doubling the current inflation for each of the seven remaining months of 2007 gives 512,000% thus the economic collapse is expected before the end of 2007," said the report, according to the AP news agency.

The security forces who have remained loyal to President Robert Mugabe were also feeling the effects.

The report said an ordinary police officer earned less than aid workers paid their domestic staff.

It said power and water suppliers were already near collapse. Electricity was last month rationed to just four hours a day to save power for farmers.

Just one adult in five is believed to have a regular job.

Some 4m Zimbabweans - a third of the population - will need food aid this year, according to the UN World Food Programme.

Mr Mugabe denies responsibility for Zimbabwe's economic problems, blaming a western plot to bring down his government because of his policy of seizing white-owned land.
Now this isn't down to, say, overly expensive oil and food, because we all know Mugabe turned a profitable, exporting nation, into a debt ridden hell hole relying on aid. I do find, however, that this one quote from a forum I visit is somewhat telling:
The government runs the country into debt because of corruption and greed. They continue to print money as they watch their currency inflate uncontrollably.

And then oil prices spike.

Are there any other countries that fit this description?
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Post by Mange »

Good show, Mugabe. :finger:
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Post by Duckie »

Is there anyone who expected Mugabe to run a successful Zimbabwe and not collapse? Raise your hands now please.
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Post by Axis Kast »

In 1980? Much of the world, in fact. Robert Mugabe's credentials as a man of the people were impeccable; consider the fact that a man as eminent as Kenneth Kaunda still puts his reputation on the line for him. Not to mention his impressive record in academia. It was one of the reasons that Zimbabwe pulled in as much aid as it did after Ian Smith stepped down.

Today, Mugabe remains in power simply because he is not important enough for the West to take serious action leading to his condemnation and abdication.
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Post by Sean Mulligan »

I thought that most of the inflation was due to the trade sanctions against Zimbabwe which the West instituted in protest of Mugabe's land reform program.
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Re: Zimbabwe Will Collapse In Six Months

Post by Illuminatus Primus »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
The government runs the country into debt because of corruption and greed. They continue to print money as they watch their currency inflate uncontrollably.

And then oil prices spike.

Are there any other countries that fit this description?
U.S. inflation is not historically that high; nor very high compared to other advanced states historically. And printing of excess currency is not the cause of the U.S. inflation. Additionally, the U.S. currency is losing value as confidence in it as the indisputed international reserve currency declines. But simply not being the best at everything does not mean the U.S. will be insolvent. Relatively speaking the U.S. is not that much worse off. And contrary to the feelings of many Americans, the U.S. doesn't have to remain the best at everything.
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Post by Starglider »

Axis Kast wrote:Today, Mugabe remains in power simply because he is not important enough for the West to take serious action leading to his condemnation and abdication.
That and the west is tired of Africa whining about western intervention and is hopeful the continent's leaders will finally learn to clean up their own crap instead of endorsing every tinpot genocidal dictator that comes along.
Sean Mulligan wrote:I thought that most of the inflation was due to the trade sanctions against Zimbabwe which the West instituted in protest of Mugabe's land reform program.
You thought wrong. Mugabe was determined to take the country to hell with or without sanctions. All they did was cut the amount his elite could steal a little and give his 'western powers are sabotaging me!' propaganda a tiny grain of truth. There's an excellent series of articles on Zimbabwe and Mugabe on The Economist website incidentally.
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Post by Tribun »

I see three future outcomes:

1.) Mugabe dies of old age (he is well over 80), while staying in power until the very end.

2.) Mugabe dies hanging from a tree, with a nice, new tie made of rope around his neck.

3.) Mugabe says: "To hell with them", grabs all his money and goes into exile into a land where no one cares from where he got his money.

Regardless which of the outcomes, Zimbabwe is fucked, because no one would risk to put any money into that hell-hole, regardless of the big boss is gone, or not.
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Post by Pelranius »

The Chinese too have gotten fed up with Mugabe and are going the way of the Libyans (read leaving the country). How much will that accelerate the collapse?
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Post by Jadeite »

Link
Zimbabwe: Security Ministers encourage Mugabe to quit

Fri, 15 Jun 2007 03:17:00
Theresa Nkala

ZANU PF bigwigs, among them, information secretary Nathan Shamuyarira and security minister Didymus Mutasa, met with the embattled President Robert Mugabe on Tuesday night, where they, in an unprecedented development, told him to annoint a successor immediately and quit ahead of crucial presidential and parliamentary elections next year.


"Basically, they told him his time was up," said a source who attended the meeting.

The meeting, also attended by defence minister Sydney Sekeramayi, followed hard on the heels of a foiled coup in which Retired-General Solomon Mujuru is fingered as the mastermind of the rebellion.

Mujuru, the husband of Vice President Joice Mujuru, has been angered by the shift of fortunes as Mugabe has, of late, been in favour of leaving the baton to his wife's arch-rival in the succession crux, rural housing and social amenities minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa.

The rebels had almost succeeded in toppling Mugabe, according to highly-placed sources in the dreaded spy agency, the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO).

"They made one fatal error. One of those enlisted for his services was an undercover CIO operative in the army. He relayed every thing to his bosses in the spy agency who nipped the coup in the bud," said a very senior CIO officer privy to the goings-on in the establishment.

He added, "We have the names of all involved. We have rounded them up, save for a few who are on the run."

The suspected coup plotters who have been thoroughly tortured, have twice appeared in camera in court but have denied planning to topple Mugabe.

Reminiscent of the court appearance of MDC and civic leaders who were arrested as they tried to attend a crushed prayer meeting in Highfield early this year, one of the coup plotters was taken into the courtroom on Monday in a wheelchair. It is believed he could not walk as a result of the beatings during interrogations.

The accused are maintaining they wanted to form a political party and contest next year's polls. However, Mugabe has been disturbed by the seniority of the defence officers involved in the plot.

David Matapo, the said leader of the rebellion, is lieutenant colonel in the Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA). Elson Moyo and Major General Engelbert Rugeje, put under house arrest, are the deputy commander of the Air Force of Zimbabwe (AFZ) and a senior officer at the army headquarters in Harare, respectively.

In the Tuesday night meeting, a visibly shaken Mugabe, reportedly sat attentively as his henchmen did most of the talking. "It was not the same Mugabe who usually wants to have the final word," said the source who also attended the meeting.

More shocking to the ageing despot, who has been in power since independence from Britain in 1980, were revelations of massive weapons that had gone missing from army barracks but were found in the hands of the coup plotters.

Conspicuously absent from the meeting was Joice Mujuru, whose husband is said to be seething with anger that his plans failed. He is leading a group of ZANU PF politicians who feel something must be rescued from Zimbabwe "for the sake of our children".

They want Mugabe to go and turn a new leaf in Zimbabwe where opposition parties are embraced and foreign donors courted.

Analysts say recent developments explain why Mugabe was in a conciliatory mood with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) at the launch of the Agricultural Mechanisation Support Programme on Monday.

The scheme, in which the Zimbabwean strongman is said to have literally knocked on MDC officials' doors with offers of tractors and farming machinery, was launched by a jovial Mugabe who called opposition members "Zimbabweans", a sharp contrast to a vitriolic Mugabe, who has seized every opportunity to pour scorn on dissenting voices.

With pressure coming from all quarters, including SA President Thabo Mbeki, who many have accused of dragging his feet on the Zimbabwean crisis, Mugabe could be preparing his exit from power.

Unconfirmed reports say, he used his recent trip to Malawi to look at a farm he has been offered by President Bingu wa Mutharika, whose wife, Ethel, was buried on Saturday last week. Mugabe went there for the burial of Ethel Mutharika, who died of cancer aged 63, two weeks ago.

Sources say, after the burial of Mama Mutharika, Mugabe's motorcade proceeded to Limbe where, for more than an hour, the Zimbabwean leader, his wife Grace, and senior government officials toured the farm. He has also been making sojourns to friendly nations like Malaysia and China, where he is believed to be stashing his loot.

Observers say it will be very difficult for Mugabe to quit and live in Zimbabwe. They say, he fears to be tried for crimes he allegedly committed while in office, especially the Gukurahundi massacre.

The genocide, which saw more than 20 000 people, mainly Ndebele-speaking villagers, being butchered by the notorious Korean-trained Fifth Brigade, was condemned by the entire world and there have been repeated calls for Mugabe to be taken to the International Court of Justice, The Hague.

"He will never feel safe as a former president, living in Zimbabwe," quipped an observer.
There's a thread over on SA where posters are predicting the exact day he steps down/dies/flees the country.
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Post by weemadando »

So, back to Rhodesia eh, for Queen and Country and the restoration of Empire?

What say you Commonwealth dwellers? Should we pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan and occupy Zimbabwe?
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Had it more natural resources, less crazy machete and Africa Express wielders and we were allowed to throw the rule book out the window, maybe.

The place is so run into the ground, I doubt even China would want it.

TIA.
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Post by weemadando »

Indeed. Zimbabwe is one of those shitholes that we can do without... But I think that as soon as Mugabe is gone, the UN will be asking for boots on the ground to prevent a complete collapse.
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Post by brianeyci »

I wouldn't want Canada in Zimbabwe. I almost don't want Canada in Afghanistan.

There are too many shitholes in the world for military forces to intervene in, and some shitholes have less people willing to come out and kill you. So better to pick the shitholes where they'll throw confetti instead of car bombs.

As I understand it, Zimbabwe wouldn't be difficult to occupy. Still, after years of the blame the west rhetoric, I don't see troops welcomed as liberators. It'll likely add fuel to the fire of Mugabe's West ruined us lie, and give people who actually believe in that lie a target on the ground. I'm almost wondering whether this is what Mugabe's hoping for, international intervention so he he has proof the West is invading so he can rally the people around him for one final stand. He can hope the intervention isn't tough enough to topple him, then he'll have all the propaganda he'll need for a lifetime to keep him as President.

Any kind of international intervention would probably have insufficient rules of engagement for the troops to protect property and prosecute for war crimes. The best that could happen is security zones. And what happens when you lose political willpower to maintain those security zones? Your elite Western troops leave. The refugees in those camps, now highly concentrated, are a prime target for the roving bands of thugs, murderers and assassins (and if there's none of these, why intervene?). Loyalist to Mugabe would slaughter them. It's giving poor people false hope, because unless you're willing to feed and protect them for the rest of their lives from murdering thugs, better not to try. The refugees will have expected the soldiers to stay forever, or at least long enough to destroy the threat, and when the soldiers don't they'll be betrayed.

I'm almost convinced that unless a country is willing to extend citizenship to displaced refugees, they have no business intervening at all, morally or practically. Not all the refugees, just a large portion of them. The exception would be genocide, which is a rather loaded term to begin with. The farce that is Iraq is made far worse by the US limiting the number of Iraqi immigrants to their country. If you're willing to create security zones where people can train to be self-sufficient and learn how to defend themselves, or have an off-chance of going to a new country with new hopes and dreams, then sure, go for it. If you're just creating a security zone where refugees take handouts and have no future after international forces leave, forget even trying, because when the dust settles the country is worse off. Like it or not, death is population control.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

I think sometimes, some country must burn to set an example for every other country that exhibits the stupidity of its leaders.
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Post by Axis Kast »

Unlike Darfur or Botswanna, Zimbabwe is an extremely rich country that would be able to reconstitute itself in short order.

Let's not forget: Rhodesia was a major source of American chrome prior to the 1965 embargo, and continued to supply strategic materials after the Byrd Amendment. It is also something of a breadbasket; that it now requires food aid is a bit of an irony.

The problem, really, is one of (1) absentee landlordism by Mugabe's cronies, who came into property as grants; (2) the much more significant fact that what land has been taken is being occupied by people with no experience in mechanized farming, and none of the capital required to actually turn a profit on what they do have. Simple tools are unavailable at this point.
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Post by tim31 »

That's two threads in N&P by Valdemar refering to the collapse of a nation in the title.
weemadando wrote:Indeed. Zimbabwe is one of those shitholes that we can do without... But I think that as soon as Mugabe is gone, the UN will be asking for boots on the ground to prevent a complete collapse.
I'm with you on that one. But would the Government want to lead or be a major player in another peacekeeping force after Timor? All that hard work and it's being undone...
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

tim31 wrote:That's two threads in N&P by Valdemar refering to the collapse of a nation in the title.
A shitty week does that to you, only when I wish the world would end, it actually happens.
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