Cyclone Gonu & The Straits Of Hormuz

[Admiral Valdemar]

Not seen anything on this here and hardly anything in the MSM.

The Storm surge shown (10-15 ft) will almost certainly hit the Iran coast - even if the storm weakens to a strong CAT 2 late Tuesday (NY time). The Eastern tip of Oman will likely also experience 10-15 foot surge due to the close proximity of the storm track. Further up the Gulf, before reaching the Straits of Hormuz - storm surge heights of 1-4 feet are expected on the Oman side, and 4-possibly 6 feet on the Iranian side near the entrance to the Straits. Significant wave heights will be 20-30 feet, dropping to 15 feet near the Straits.

This is an unprecedented event. NO CYCLONE has ever entered the Gulf of Oman. And there are no custom 'storm surge' models available for that area. This forecast is based on my experience and subjective analysis of the seabed slope and storm surge interaction with the sea floor. Considering the region has never experienced a hurricane, let alone a strong one it is highly unlikely the loading facilities or platforms were constructed to withstand the forces - both wave action and wind force - that they will experience. Significant, damage will occur. How much long term damage, and the volumes associated with it - can not be determined at this time.

Some observations:

• - This started as a Cat. 5 and stayed that way for a good time. That this is the first storm of any power to do this in well over a decade is remarkable. That it is likely the strongest in living memory is disturbing.
  
  - The MSM and Wall Street analysts dismiss this as a threat is telling. There is no historical precedent with which to gauge how to react here. Many expect the weakened winds to mean this is already a non-event, when the surge is what matters (especially a flat, unprotected and dry state like Oman). Katrina was a Cat. 3 and after it hit everyone thought that was a non-event too, until 48 hours later when the waters flooded in.
  
  - Already LNG and oil ops. are halted, likely for a week. Shipping cannot enter or exit the straits and tankers are already in tight contracts as it is. Extra time waiting, loading and unloading will add to the burden, assuming the seabed isn't buggered enough to make docking even riskier.

We may know within the next few days whether this will hurt the markets. Already bloggers are reporting power outages, water cut-offs and comms. along with housing being battered. Damage is expected to be high if a direct hit at Cat. 3 is sustained on the main industry areas, and that's assuming Western construction standards, something not guaranteed given this is a historical first essentially (but proves the ever more erratic and powerful storm model has backing given Katrina, Wilma and Monica).

[J]

- The MSM and Wall Street analysts dismiss this as a threat is telling. There is no historical precedent with which to gauge how to react here. Many expect the weakened winds to mean this is already a non-event, when the surge is what matters (especially a flat, unprotected and dry state like Oman). Katrina was a Cat. 3 and after it hit everyone thought that was a non-event too, until 48 hours later when the waters flooded in.

Bloomberg had a short piece on it a day or two ago, but yes, it essentially downplayed the threats and implied that the only concern was a disruption to tanker traffic. It's funny since they made a huge deal out of the NHC forecast predictions for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season; hurricanes will do major damage to the Gulf of Mexico facilities and yet here's a major hurricane headed straight for an oil producing area in the Mid East and somehow it's not a big deal. It's as if their brains can't make the connection.

[Enforcer Talen]

Oh, that cant be a good thing.

Godonly knows what the oil prices will become.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Doesn't the US Navy have units in the area? Aircraft carrier and all? Where do they go?

[Admiral Valdemar]

Doesn't the US Navy have units in the area? Aircraft carrier and all? Where do they go?

Yes, two CVBGs at least. They were the ones suggesting shipping hold back from entering the Gulf region given the storm. There are two empty tankers there, the Gracechurch Comet and Copiapo. It won't be fun for them.

[Winston Blake]

Oh, that cant be a good thing.

Godonly knows what the oil prices will become.

Maybe if a natural disaster forces limits on oil consumption, it'll buy us another 5 or 10 years to prepare for the effects of Peak Oil. I can dream, can't I?