"The Chinese miracle will end soon."

[Jadeite]

Link

"The Chinese Miracle Will End Soon"

The world has been dazzled in recent years by the economic strides being made by China. But it has come at a huge cost to the country's environment. Pollution is a serious and costly problem. Pan Yue of the ministry of the environment says these problems will soon overwhelm the country and will create millions of "environmental refugees."

SPIEGEL:

China is dazzling the world with its booming economy, which grew by 9.5 percent. Aren't you pleased with this speed of growth?

Pan: Of course I am pleased with the success of China's economy. But at the same time I am worried. We are using too many raw materials to sustain this growth. To produce goods worth $10,000, for example, we need seven times more resources than Japan, nearly six times more than the United States and, perhaps most embarrassing, nearly three times more than India. Things can't, nor should they be allowed to go on like that.

SPIEGEL: Such a viewpoint is not exactly widespread in your country.

Pan: Many factors are coming together here: Our raw materials are scarce, we don't have enough land, and our population is constantly growing. Currently, there are 1.3 billion people living in China, that's twice as many as 50 years ago. In 2020, there will be 1.5 billion people in China. Cities are growing but desert areas are expanding at the same time; habitable and usable land has been halved over the past 50 years.

SPIEGEL: Still, each year China is strengthening its reputation as an economic Wunderland.

Pan: This miracle will end soon because the environment can no longer keep pace. Acid rain is falling on one third of the Chinese territory, half of the water in our seven largest rivers is completely useless, while one fourth of our citizens does not have access to clean drinking water. One third of the urban population is breathing polluted air, and less than 20 percent of the trash in cities is treated and processed in an environmentally sustainable manner. Finally, five of the ten most polluted cities worldwide are in China.

SPIEGEL: How great are the effects of this environmental degradation on the economy?

Pan: It's massive. Because air and water are polluted, we are losing between 8 and 15 percent of our gross domestic product. And that doesn't include the costs for health. Then there's the human suffering: In Bejing alone, 70 to 80 percent of all deadly cancer cases are related to the environment. Lung cancer has emerged as the No. 1 cause of death.

SPIEGEL: How is the population reacting to these health problems? Are people moving to healthier parts of the country?

Pan: Even now, the western regions of China and the country's ecologically stressed regions can no longer support the people already living there. In the future, we will need to resettle 186 million residents from 22 provinces and cities. However, the other provinces and cities can only absorb some 33 million people. That means China will have more than 150 million ecological migrants, or, if you like, environmental refugees.

SPIEGEL: Hasn't your government tried to get pollution under control?

Pan: Yes it has, and in some cities such as Beijing the air quality has, in fact, improved. Also, the water in some rivers and lakes is now cleaner than it's been in the past. There are more conservation areas now and some model cities that focus specifically on environmental protection. We are replanting forests. We have passed additional laws and regulations that are stricter than in the past and they are being more rigorously enforced.

SPIEGEL: But the economic growth fanatics in Beijing will still likely carry on just as before.

Pan: They're still playing the lead role -- for now. For them, the gross domestic product is the only yardstick by which to gauge the government's performance. But we are also making another mistake: We are convinced that a prospering economy automatically goes hand in hand with political stability. And I think that's a major blunder. The faster the economy grows, the more quickly we will run the risk of a political crisis if the political reforms cannot keep pace. If the gap between the poor and the rich widens, then regions within China and the society as a whole will become unstable. If our democracy and our legal system lag behind the overall economic development, various groups in the population won't be able to protect their own interests. And there's yet another mistake in this thinking.....

SPIEGEL: Which one?

Pan: It's the assumption that the economic growth will give us the financial resources to cope with the crises surrounding the environment, raw materials, and population growth.

SPIEGEL: Why can't that work?

Pan: There won't be enough money, and we are simply running out of time. Developed countries with a per capita gross national product of $8,000 to $10,000 can afford that, but we cannot. Before we reach $4,000 per person, different crises in all shapes and forms will hit us. Economically we won't be strong enough to overcome them.

SPIEGEL: You have advocated the introduction of the so-called "green gross domestic product." What does that entail?

Pan: It is a model that also takes into account the costs of growth, like environmental pollution for example, and is a topic we are discussing with German experts. We want the performance of functionaries to not only be measured in terms of economic growth but also in terms of how they solve environmental problems and social issues.

SPIEGEL: Does your agency even have the ability to clamp down on environmental criminals?

Pan: We recently shut down 30 projects, including several power plants -- one of those at the Three Gorges Dam. The companies involved failed -- as required by law -- to review what effect their new investments would have on the environment.

SPIEGEL: But 26 other projects were allowed to carry on. They only had to pay small fines -- peanuts compared to the billions that were invested.

Pan: Unfortunately, that's true. Which is why our laws and regulations need to be reformed. Even though we have little power, we will close down illegal projects, including economically powerful steel, cement, aluminium, and paper factories. And we will ignore the agendas followed by influential officials and companies.

SPIEGEL: Many environmental offenders have fistfuls of cash or are taking advantage of their political connections....

Pan: My agency has always gone against the grain. In the process, there have always been conflicts with the powerful lobbyist groups and strong local governments. But the people, the media, and science are behind us. In fact, the pressure is a motivator for me. Nobody is going to push me off my current course.

SPIEGEL: China lacks a grassroots, environmental movement. So far, the citizens have very little opportunity to stand up against questionable projects. Courts sometimes don't even accept the suits that the people are filing, and voicing opposition is not allowed.

Pan: Political co-determination should be part of any socialist democracy. I want more discussions with the people affected. However, I am not one to put on a show just to look democratic to the outside. We need a law that enables and guarantees public participation, especially when it comes to environmental projects. If it's safe politically to get involved and help the environment, then all sides will benefit. We must try to convince the central leadership of that.

Interview conducted by Andreas Lorenz

Translated from the German by Patrick Kessler.

We can toss massive environmental problems into the pile alongside enormous gender imbalance, and an inefficient and corrupt banking system.

[Alex Moon]

Not suprising. Back in school, the Chinese "miracle" was always talked about with a little disdain. The thought was that it wasn't going to last, and many of the number were suspect anyways...

[PeZook]

Not suprising. Back in school, the Chinese "miracle" was always talked about with a little disdain. The thought was that it wasn't going to last, and many of the number were suspect anyways...

Too rapid a growth is sometimes as undesirable as none at all. When the economy "overheats", all sorts of bad things start happening - like runaway inflation, rapid increase in company and consumer debt (which threatens a wave of bankrupcies once the bubble bursts), environmental damage, political instability. China's existing problems with the way their government works will only serve to make all these problems worse.

IMHO, they should've undertaken measures to slow down growth years ago, so that they could establish ways of dealing with the unpleasantness that will inevitably follow.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Too rapid a growth is sometimes as undesirable as none at all. When the economy "overheats", all sorts of bad things start happening - like runaway inflation, rapid increase in company and consumer debt (which threatens a wave of bankrupcies once the bubble bursts), environmental damage, political instability. China's existing problems with the way their government works will only serve to make all these problems worse.

IMHO, they should've undertaken measures to slow down growth years ago, so that they could establish ways of dealing with the unpleasantness that will inevitably follow.

The problem apparently lies in the fact that the provinces is rampant with corruption, and don't listen to the central government much. If they really want to do something about it, they have to start imposing their rule on the provinces and get down to root out all the corrupt officials....

Which is easier said than done. Though they have told the provinces not to be overzealous about investments, the provinces aren't.. quite listening.

[Shinova]

And the provinces probably have central government members in their pockets too. I've read a little bit about that in a Time article I think.

[wautd]

I remember a game show where they travelled trough China. At one point they had to go trough an industrial area where the air pollution was so high that by just breathing the air was equal to smoking several packs of cigarettes a day. Their nose snot came out brown

[PeZook]

The problem apparently lies in the fact that the provinces is rampant with corruption, and don't listen to the central government much. If they really want to do something about it, they have to start imposing their rule on the provinces and get down to root out all the corrupt officials....

Which is easier said than done. Though they have told the provinces not to be overzealous about investments, the provinces aren't.. quite listening.

Yeah, well, that's the problem with having a government that tries to control so much of the economy via decree. In most established market economies, the central bank would've simply manipulated the interest and exchange rates, and maybe the obligatory reserve to ease the growth and investment through market mechanisms ; But since the Chinese administration has so much direct say in the economy, they try to rule by decree a lot, and that always backfires in the long run.

We've seen this in former Soviet Bloc states, with things like regulating the price level - food prices were increased a lot, but to counter this, the glorious Party decreased the prices of...railway locomotives! With this glorious edict, the price levels were kept the same!

[LadyTevar]

So how long before their collapse sparks off another Great Depression as per 1929?

The parallels to the pre-1930s are there: massive buildup of industry, little or no government oversight, bad pollution and waste management....

[MKSheppard]

The parallels to the pre-1930s are there: massive buildup of industry, little or no government oversight, bad pollution and waste management....

No, the parallels are for the Nineties.

The 1890s that is.

Go read up your history of the Gilded Age; it's pretty much what china is going through; massively industrializing from an agarian society, that we did in the 1880s-1900s.

[PeZook]

So how long before their collapse sparks off another Great Depression as per 1929?

The parallels to the pre-1930s are there: massive buildup of industry, little or no government oversight, bad pollution and waste management....

Well, no, actually, there's very little in common with the pre-1930s, except maybe for the overenthusiastic investment part. They're definitely setting themselves up for cascade failure, but there are more mechanisms in place for dealing with such an event now.

They key thing here is that industrial production in China has little to do with agricultural production in the US and elsewhere - the Chinese are mostly about light industry and electronics. They will get fucked, but as long as food prices don't plummet in the West, we're good. We can expect electronics, clothes and some common household goods to become quite expensive for a while, though, but production can easily shift to India.

[Vympel]

Good. The world can't afford it, and I'd rather not have China throwing it's modernizing military weight around.

[MKSheppard]

Good. The world can't afford it

So you'd rather have billions of screaming chinamen living in slovenly conditions? Not to mention tons of Africans, too, since that's where China is investing heavily for raw resources.

[Vympel]

So you'd rather have billions of screaming chinamen living in slovenly conditions? Not to mention tons of Africans, too, since that's where China is investing heavily for raw resources.

As an alternative to China wrecking the environment with its massive unfettered industrialization and it pursuing a living standard that is unsustainable compared to its populace? Let them scream. That's all they would be able to do.

[Surlethe]

Just how much impact will a Chinese collapse have on the world economy? I'm not sure how to get a picture of the net effect, because in addition to things like consumer goods prices spiking, there will also be a slump in raw materials prices. Will the overall impact be good or bad for the US? EU? Australia? UK? USS- err, I mean Russia?

[J]

Just how much impact will a Chinese collapse have on the world economy? I'm not sure how to get a picture of the net effect, because in addition to things like consumer goods prices spiking, there will also be a slump in raw materials prices. Will the overall impact be good or bad for the US? EU? Australia? UK? USS- err, I mean Russia?

The US is hit hard in the short term as much of the countries local industry is either gone or mothballed and will have to be built up and restarted. Everything from textiles to toys to electronics, there's going to be shortages of many everyday consumer goods which will lead price spikes, inflation, and possibly quite a bit of panic. In the long run, assuming a somewhat intelligent policy, lower energy & raw materials prices combined with a resurgence of local industry should lead to a better & more stable US economy.

The EU is in a much better position as a lot more of their local industry is intact, they won't see the large price spikes in consumer goods prices though prices will still go up. For the most part they skip over the worst of the effects and move on to the next stage ahead of us.

Australia, I'm afraid I'm not well versed at all on its situation, and I'd say Stas Bush would definitely be the person to talk to on Russia.

[Pollux]

Just how much impact will a Chinese collapse have on the world economy? I'm not sure how to get a picture of the net effect, because in addition to things like consumer goods prices spiking, there will also be a slump in raw materials prices. Will the overall impact be good or bad for the US? EU? Australia? UK? USS- err, I mean Russia?

That break-up was just a figment of your imagination.

[Shroom Man 777]

I'm afraid for the Philippines, if and when that happens.

How 'bout Canada?

[Ma Deuce]

I'm afraid for the Philippines, if and when that happens.

How 'bout Canada?

We're going to be in a similar position as the US, given how closely integrated our economy is with theirs, and the fact that we import much of our cheap everyday consumer goods from China as well. Additionally, since we are a major resource exporter, a slump in resource and energy prices would also put the hurt on our economy.

[Darth Mortis]

I somewhat think the world leader's knew this is what would happen to China (The worlds biggest threat) and forced business to boom in China because of cheap material pricing and cheap labor.

Means to an end imo.

[Illuminatus Primus]

Good. The world can't afford it

So you'd rather have billions of screaming chinamen living in slovenly conditions? Not to mention tons of Africans, too, since that's where China is investing heavily for raw resources.

You act like continuing investment WILL be sustainable if they just keep on with sunshine up the ass. They must control the growth or instead they'll have to deal with millions of dead Chinese.

And there's a kind of sick tone in your "let's help the slanty-eyes with capitalism!" spiels. Somehow calling them "chinamen" - like the railroad slaves for the American railroads of yesteryear - gives doubt to your sincerity and a sinister side to your interest in their economic growth.

[LadyTevar]

I used "pre-1930s" because that was when WV was the worst hit. Between 1900-1930, 99% of WV's woodlands were cut down for timber, leaving only the stand immortalized as Cathedral State Park. Coal companies not only owned the mines, but they owned the houses, the stores, the doctors, and miserly wages were paid in company-minted Scrip, which wasn't even worth the equivalent US Dollar amount. Pollution from the lumber and coal industry buried or poisoned creeks and wells, caused massive erosion, and left countless miners and lumbermen with live-long disabilities, if not outright dead. Officials, even Pinkerton Men, were bribed by the coal companies to keep the peace, murders were committed to stop Unionization, and the Federal Government looked the other way.


Sounds like modern China to me

[TC Pilot]

Overpopulation, scarcity of land, and depletion of resources is a common occurence in Chinese history. I'm interested to see how many millions of Chinese die this time.

[MKSheppard]

You act like continuing investment WILL be sustainable if they just keep on with sunshine up the ass. They must control the growth or instead they'll have to deal with millions of dead Chinese.

And how will these millions of dead people happen? China is already self sufficient in foodstuffs; and much of the industrial growth is working to tame the sadistic bitch that mother nature is in China; Three Gorges just paid itself off by dramatically reducing floods this season, and tons more of dams are being built so that hundreds and thousands of people don't have to die each year from preventable floods.

Plus, those dams will provide cheap hydropower when they're running.

And there's a kind of sick tone in your "let's help the slanty-eyes with capitalism!" spiels.

Because it's what works! Because the Great Leap Forward and Maoism worked so well in raising Chinese living standards!

Somehow calling them "chinamen" - like the railroad slaves for the American railroads of yesteryear - gives doubt to your sincerity and a sinister side to your interest in their economic growth.

That's what me and Ye, the head of the Chinese Tyrannid Hive in Canada; do all the time; he refers to me as an unwashed barbarian, and me vice versa.

In fact, we've speculated about what it would be like if 40 years from now, I'm the senior american leader in a delegation to China, and me and Ye (who is by now a senior commie economist), go on TV, and in a huge gala event; start trading insults.

"Chinaman!"

"Barbarian!"

"Slant eyed Slope!"

"Lao Maozi!"



Anyway, who's the real racist here; someone who uses the word "chinaman" in a semi-humorous format; or someone who believes that Chinese economic growth should be strangled and millions, nay, billions should continue to live at the level of peasants, while said person hogs all the resources?

Off that, I'm interested in how the CHinese government will handle the inevitable economic "correction" aka "downturn" etc. This isn't the old days when the CCP could just send out the Army to arrest everyone. Things have changed just too much between China of the 1960s and China of Today.

[Illuminatus Primus]

And how will these millions of dead people happen? China is already self sufficient in foodstuffs; and much of the industrial growth is working to tame the sadistic bitch that mother nature is in China; Three Gorges just paid itself off by dramatically reducing floods this season, and tons more of dams are being built so that hundreds and thousands of people don't have to die each year from preventable floods.

Plus, those dams will provide cheap hydropower when they're running.

And that does what for the massive environmental damage? You think the land depletion they are talking about fixes itself in human time frames? Millions are already dying by the article's admission from anthropogenic causes, including pollution.

Because it's what works! Because the Great Leap Forward and Maoism worked so well in raising Chinese living standards!

And my point makes me a supporter of Maoism how? There's more to quality of life and living standards than just real GDP per capita. Like being uninsured and pensionless in America, or being a non-citizen in the UAE (highest real GDP growth), etc. Superficial economic indicators are not the whole story, American right wing politics notwithstanding.

Somehow calling them "chinamen" - like the railroad slaves for the American railroads of yesteryear - gives doubt to your sincerity and a sinister side to your interest in their economic growth.

Anyway, who's the real racist here; someone who uses the word "chinaman" in a semi-humorous format; or someone who believes that Chinese economic growth should be strangled and millions, nay, billions should continue to live at the level of peasants, while said person hogs all the resources?

At the expense of global resource depletion? Permanent pollution problems and environmental damage in China? I feel so glad for the unregistered worker of China today that can look back and say "thank God for no feudalism!" while he is beaten by police or the factory managers and breathes toxic air.

Off that, I'm interested in how the CHinese government will handle the inevitable economic "correction" aka "downturn" etc. This isn't the old days when the CCP could just send out the Army to arrest everyone. Things have changed just too much between China of the 1960s and China of Today.

Like Tianamen? And what's the alternative? Chinese civil wars and revolutions have the historical habit of killing the many millions you feel so warmly about.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I'm afraid for the Philippines, if and when that happens.

How 'bout Canada?

If I were you people, I'd rush to take control of the Spratlys if they indulge in another round of the Civil Wars. You buggers seem to excel at screwing yourselves more than anything and really need cold hard cash.