Al Qaeda Has No Sanctuary in Iraq, General Says

[Patrick Degan]

My prediction: despite what Freddy says, this time next year we're going to be here talking about the chaos the country is still in, the inability of Mayor Malaki of Baghdad Green to exert his authority over the rest of the country, the 4000th dead American soldier, and Georgie the Stupider's dire warning that electing a Democrat will undo Surge Phase II and result in an Al-Qaeda victory which will doom America and the world to a new dark age.

[Vendetta]

I'm not gonna give you odds on that.

[xerex]

Only half of the population of Baghdad or roughly there about support al Sadr. Most of Iraq is secure at this point, only certain areas of the country are openly contested. The things are now we cannot gain a clear advantage in these areas but with units from the North giving these forces direct support we be able to clear out the insurgency. Simply speaking in most areas where there is armed struggle we simply don't have enough men to search for caches, conduct MOUT operations, assist the people, search for IEDs, escort convoys, and keep the MSRs and ASRs clear.

Correct me if i'm wrong but isnt the reason most of iraq is secure is becuase the Mahdi Armi has stood down while the USARmy deals with the Sunni insurgents ? I seem to recall the Mahdi army controlling many of the soutern provincial govts.

[Pablo Sanchez]

Correct me if i'm wrong but isnt the reason most of iraq is secure is becuase the Mahdi Armi has stood down while the USARmy deals with the Sunni insurgents ? I seem to recall the Mahdi army controlling many of the soutern provincial govts.

Part of the statistical slight of hand here is saying that areas of Iraq are not "contested" because there's no longer fighting in them. They are under the control of local militias who the US Army is not fighting, because they are theoretically supporters of the Iraqi government. Hence the death squads in government-supplied uniforms. By using the right stock phrases, you can make that sound like a positive.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I actually think that al-Qaeda in Iraq IS being eliminated, but the simple fact of the matter is that there's only been 5 - 6,000 foreign fighters killed in Iraq so far in the conflict whereas there have been probably on the order of 80,000 local insurgents killed. So finishing off al-Qaeda in Iraq is just dealing with a small fraction of the total strength of those resisting us.

[Gigaliel]

Lt. Gen. Odierno attributed the surge's successes to three factors: forces denying sanctuary to insurgents; Iraqi security forces growing in size and capabilities; and a recent wave of tribal leaders agreeing to side with coalition forces to drive al Qaeda and other rogue insurgent groups out.

Haha. I like the clever association here, insurgents are co-operating with Coalition forces to get rid of al-Qaeda. That's it. None of this 'and other extremists' nonsense. This very article point this out.

"The Iraqi people are clearly rejecting the Taliban-like mentality that offers no hope to Iraqis or their families," Lt. Gen. Odierno said.

More than half of Baghdad is now under the control of coalition or Iraqi security forces, he said.
.....
Violence has sharply declined in many regions because of the agreements with local tribes, Lt. Gen. Odierno said. He noted that Ramadi, "once the al Qaeda capital of Iraq," averages less than one attack daily, down from 30 daily only six months ago.

Lt. Gen. Odierno cited similar successes in Abu Ghraib, Taji, and the Baghdad neighborhood of Amiriyah.

This doesn't address any of the fundamental issues of the sectarian conflict. All it proves is that al-Qaeda isn't very popular. Even if we picked up and left they would've been exterminated by the Shi'ites. Whoops, threat to America terminated without any effort! The nationalist Baath regime probably would have if pressured! Way to waste five years, guys.

Perhaps we could then go focus on the delightful Afghanistan front so Pakistan doesn't suffer more internal strife, yes?

Of course, since the U.S. won't be leaving when al-Qaeda is removed the civil war will resume. All those areas 'pacified' will still be pissed off at the current arrangement. Incorrect assessments of the viability and cohesiveness of the country (by this administration) have been abundant. The parts about the Iraq Army actually functioning and turning in turncoats are slightly positive, but I'll wait to see if it's an alliance of convenience to get rid of a bunch of al-Qaeda minded soldiers.

[Patrick Degan]

Even if we picked up and left they would've been exterminated by the Shi'ites.

Actually, it probably more the case that once the Americans leave, there will be nothing to get in the way of both the Shia and Sunnis exterminating al-Qaeda. To the Iraqis, they're just another bunch of damn foreigners shitting in their backyard and they want them OUT and will have them out of their country one way or the other.

[Darth Wong]

I now see what the Bush Administration's vision for success is: the dream of reducing Al-Quaeda's presence in Iraq to what it was under Saddam Hussein.