Putin's possible successor also ex-KGB

[kheegster]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6740255.stm

Russia's Ivanov steps out of shadows
By Richard Galpin
BBC News, Novosibirsk, Russia


Officially Russia's presidential election campaign is not due to start until December, but in effect it has already begun.

Top business leaders and politicians from many countries met in St Petersburg at the weekend with the question of who will succeed President Vladimir Putin high on their agenda.

Mr Putin, who has been in office since 2000, is required by the constitution to step down after elections due to be held early next year.

Among the high-profile speakers at the St Petersburg Economic Forum were the two men currently seen as the frontrunners in the race to become the next Russian president - the first deputy prime ministers, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev.

In the spotlight

In recent months both Mr Ivanov and Mr Medvedev have travelled across Russia on a series of highly-publicised trips.

It is all being carefully choreographed by the Kremlin.

President Putin seems to be testing out his two favourites, seeing how they perform and how the public reacts to them.

It is widely expected that later this year Mr Putin will nominate one of them - or any other candidate who may emerge before then - as his preferred successor.

And all the experts agree that whoever gets Mr Putin's official seal of approval will win the election because the electorate will follow Mr Putin's lead.

In February Mr Putin moved Sergei Ivanov from his position as defence minister, making him first deputy prime minister.

The promotion has been widely interpreted as indicating that Mr Ivanov is now the frontrunner in the presidential election race.

Kremlin chess game

"He's got a good chance," say Mikhail Fishman of the Russian Newsweek magazine. "The common perception in the elites is that he's already the winner. I would say he is one or two steps ahead of Mr Medvedev. But the game is not over yet."

We were given a rare opportunity to accompany Mr Ivanov on one of his "campaigning" trips to southern Siberia.

With a police escort we swept out of the city of Novosibirsk to attend the 50th anniversary celebrations of the prestigious regional academy of sciences.

The academy is part of what used to be a top secret scientific research complex.

Mr Ivanov as guest of honour was given full celebrity status.

But surprisingly for a senior politician he looked stiff and awkward as he stood centre-stage in the full glare of the spotlights, handing out medals to the academy's most illustrious members. Like President Putin, Mr Ivanov has a frosty, rather grey demeanour.

Secret service career

The two men are remarkably similar. They are the same age, come from St Petersburg and worked for the Russian intelligence agencies before entering politics.

In the late 1990s, when Mr Putin was director of the internal intelligence agency the FSB, Mr Ivanov was appointed as his deputy. They are believed to be close.

Despite Mr Ivanov's lack of panache, some scientists at the academy near Novosibirsk seemed impressed.

"He'll be an excellent president," says Igor Zhimulev, Professor of Genetics. "I could repeat what Henry Kissinger said - that all the best politicians come from intelligence."

Prof Zhimulev also favours Mr Ivanov because as deputy prime minister he has been given special responsibility for science and technology as well as the military-industrial complex. And already he says scientists have seen big increases in their salaries.

But it was Mr Ivanov's intelligence training which was on show later when we tried to pin him down on his presidential ambitions at an impromptu news conference.

He fixed me with a cold, hard stare and demanded I translate my question from English to Russian. "I'm sorry, I have an iron rule," he said in fluent English, "in Russia I only speak in Russian."

He went on (in Russian) to dismiss any talk of running for president, saying he could not think about this now as he had enough to do in his new job as deputy prime minister.

With that he walked off, leaving his aides to chastise us for our impertinence.

Russian politicians have grown accustomed to a deeply compliant media.

Powerful backers

To outside observers the prospect of another Russian president who hails from the secret services is troubling, particularly given the kind of signals coming from Mr Ivanov.

"He's showing essentially who's behind him, who his main contacts are in the ministry of defence and the defence industries," says Rose Gottemoeller, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Moscow.

"These are the tough guys, these are the Russian hawks and they have been since Soviet times. And he's clearly showing he really has that group working behind him."

But while Mr Ivanov may be instinctively hawkish and authoritarian, some analysts believe he is an unknown quantity as a politician because until now he has strictly followed his mentor President Putin.

"The question is, who is Mr Ivanov?" says Mikhail Fishman of Russian Newsweek magazine. "At first (if he's elected president) he would follow the same line as Mr Putin, but then he would change and no one can say what would be next."

Yuri Andropov must be having multiple orgasms within his grave....

[K. A. Pital]

Andropov would have executed both Putin and Ivanov for corruption, then peacefully died whilst writing poetry.

[Vympel]

I don't know about you, but I think the chances that any of the Soviet era leaders weren't corrupt are pretty damn slim.

[K. A. Pital]

Isn't corruption when you abuse your power for personal benefits? The harsher Soviet leaders were not keen on corruption. It was Brezhnew's rule which saw a rampant spread of corruption among the Soviet leaders.

Incidentally, most of the Russian elites by the end of the 90's were closely connected with the Russian Mafia - from governors to presidential apparatus and the Parliament (these ties remain even today).

The KGB is probably the least corrupt of all structures in Russia due to it's harsh internal cleansing. So it's no wonder that Putin or other ex-KGBs enjoy popularity - people look to them as to some sort of "clear shard" from the previous epoch, people who remained loyal to Russian national interests (on the grand scale) when everyone else seemed to forget them for immediate financial gain instead.

So it's hardly news that Ivanov is the possible successor. He's moderately professional, and the government had been trying very hard to eliminate any possible stains on his political record (corruption, murky deals, mafia relations - it's like he doesn't take part in any of that, or at least that's the perception they want to make).

[Admiral Valdemar]

First thing that went through my head...

"Some trust fund prosecutor, got off-message at Yale, thinks he's gonna run this up the flagpole, make a name for himself, maybe get elected some two-bit, congressman from nowhere, with the result that Russia or China can suddenly start having, at our expense, all the advantages we enjoy here. No, I tell you. No, sir. Corruption charges! Corruption? Corruption is government intrusion into market efficiencies in the form of regulations. That's Milton Friedman. He got a goddamn Nobel Prize. We have laws against it precisely so we can get away with it. Corruption is our protection. Corruption keeps us safe and warm. Corruption is why you and I are prancing around in here instead of fighting over scraps of meat out in the streets. Corruption is why we win."
-Danny Dalton, Syriana

[Vympel]

I never got that quote. It sounds incoherent to me.

[Pelranius]

Supposedly, the Dalton character is justifying the payment of bribes by Americans to get what they want (oil), since corruption gives Americans a leg up on the competition when it comes to getting resources. I just want to ask the guy what's to stop the Chinese or Indians from buying off the sellers, though. Corruption is a two way street, after all.

[K. A. Pital]

I just want to ask the guy what's to stop the Chinese or Indians from buying off the sellers, though.

Lots, actually, first and foremost - the lack of financial and administrative resources compared to the US. And it's not as if they don't try it - Chinese and Indians actively seek Middle East oil baron alliances, just as they seek Russia's supplies.

Corruption is a two way street, after all.

Corruption isn't a two-way street. That's why. A corrupt official demands a bribe. Someone who has enough resources for the bribe - most likely a rich man, some tycoon.