Coalition wrote:I'd see the Tau as having the defensive advantage, and a little on the firepower as well.
Disregarding the Sidwealls of course (unless the Tau can get their gigaton-range nukes through sidewalls and point defense or they develop laser weaponry. Or can burn out the sidewalls.)
Tau shields can withstand 600 gigatons of firepower before collapsing. That translates to ~1000 Manty missiles per ship, to drop its shields (not counting ECM).
Probably being a bit kind to the Manty side, since as I noted, laser heads tend to use only a small parrt of that actual firepower (and of that part, only some actually hits the opposing ships.) I also suspect the acutal durability among Tau ships will vary according to the ship.
For firepower, the AI guided missiles could use the Triple-ripple style of attacking. Each missile is a 60 gigaton warhead (each volley of missiles is 10 missiles, damage per volley is 600 gigatons). So the first missile comes into range, and detects anti-missile fire. It detonates, blinding the counter missiles. The next one detonates afterwards, repeating, and keeping the Manty ship blind.
The question is, how far away are they going to launch it?
Unfortunately, those missiles can only be fired at one volley per fifteen minutes, there will be a massive first wave, then the Tau will rotate shields in and out of the front line, to keep their shields strong.
Nukes in the honorverse seem to be quite a bit more destructive (as THoTQ and tSVW prove) if they get through the side wall and close enough to the target. The problem is that at the ranges they typically engage at, modern point defense is quite likely to shoot those same missiles down before they get close enough to be a threat. The main advantage of the laser head is its stand-off distance and its greater intensity (it delivers its energy in a more concentrated form than a nuke, even if the actual energy unleashed is not as great.)
The Manties will be able to dodge away from the Tau, most likely, but if the Tau can spot the shipyards, they will simply close and engage them.
Are we talking FTL or sublight? If sublight Manties are pretty sluggish in turning, though depending on what Tau accel is (I haven't heard any numbers yet) they might have better linear accel. They may or may not have a slight advantage in endurance (Honorverse ships can sustain accel for weeks or months - longer if they travel alto more in hyperspace than in realspace.)