Thanas wrote:Nope. Russia played that game already, it turned out badly for them. They cannot afford it. Massive financial aid is a given and arms shipments have already started. Germany supplied Kiev with night vision and comm equipment already, I have no doubt other states will even exceed that commitment. Russia is very lucky that the West is not as stupid as they are and is unwilling to escalate.
What are you even talking about? Are you posting from a parallel universe?
1. Russia dealt Ukraine a decisive defeat with an utterly minimal amount of force and forced them to accept a peace treaty because Mariupol was (and is) endangered. Not the other way round. In what way has it "turned out badly for them"?
A Catastrophic Defeat
2. There's no indicator of "massive financial aid" from anywhere. Which countries are providing this 'massive financial aid', pray tell? The EU offering financial aid to its own members to see them through their economic difficulties is already massively controversial, you think they're going to give money to Ukraine to arm itself? That's delusional. Ukraine's economy is already in the toilet, getting worse, and subject entirely to IMF loans tied to austerity measures just to pay the bills.
3. "Arms shipments have already started" - they have? What arms? From who? Show me.
4. Night vision and comm equipment? Utterly irrelevant - those aren't arms, that's expressly non-lethal aid, and it avails Ukraine nothing (as evidenced by, you know, Ukraine just getting spanked - those were supplied quite a while ago). Russia is supplying night vision equipment too. Specifically, by the thermal imagers attached to their T-72B3s. See the difference?
5. Yes, Russia is very lucky that the West is unwilling to escalate. It gives them a free hand to do so without facing an equivalent response. On what planet is this bad for Russia?
Nothing you wrote make sense. Its either entirely contrary to reality or wishful thinking. Ukraine's army is a joke, as demonstrated by their getting spanked by rebel formations backed up with a comparative handful of Russian troops without the benefit of a hint of the firepower or organization of a regular Russian army formation (and no air support at all), and you're talking about Ukraine getting massive financial aid and arms shipments to actually try and compete with
Russia. WTF? Do you even understand the disparity?
EDIT:
Wake up
Despite appeals from the Ukrainian armed forces, the United States has so far provided only a modest package of nonlethal assistance to the Kiev government, and much of it has yet to arrive.
The White House, which has relied on economic sanctions and the threat of international isolation to deter Russia from escalating its involvement in Ukraine, has been reluctant to step up military assistance for fear that it will lead to an escalation in the fighting and provoke Moscow.
The $70 million in aid the United States has pledged includes rations, radios, concertina wire, first-aid kits and limited supplies of body armor, but no arms. But much of the assistance is still in the pipeline, including such important items as night-vision goggles. The United States has also promised to train 700 members of Ukraine’s National Guard, but that program is not scheduled to get underway until 2015.
In contrast, Ukrainian separatists have been battling the government’s troops with the help of Russian tanks, artillery, antiaircraft weapons and, NATO says, thousands of Russian troops.
Double edit:
Thanas wrote:Bullshit. Not even Putin is insane and stupid enough to have an invasion and then fight an insurgency for a decade, all the while dealing with the US sponsoring insurgencies in the caucasus.
Wait, is this meant to be a response to my preceding post? If so ...
wtf?. I'm not sure what's worse - the ludicrous idea that Russia would have to fight an insurgency for a decade in
Donetsk and
Lugansk of all places, or the batshit idea that the US would sponsor insurgencies in the Caucasus in response?
This insurgency sponsorship idea combined with wild talk of "massive" amounts of financial aid to Ukraine and arms ...
Literally nothing of what you're talking about is on the table. Or in the room. Or in the same house. In the same suburb.
Thankfully, no one in a position of responsibility anywhere in the West considers it a good idea to massively escalate a contest with Russia beyond all reason over a place where the West has no real stake.
