Sweden Democrats become Sweden’s largest party

[Sir Sirius]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d144b594-4703 ... 0807b.html

Anti-immigration Sweden Democrats become country’s largest party

Richard Milne, Nordic Correspondent

The surge in support reflects growing worries over immigration and integration in Sweden, which has taken more asylum seekers in recent years than any other European country relative to the size of its population. It also comes after two people were stabbed to death in an Ikea store in Sweden, with the main suspect being an asylum seeker on the verge of being deported.

“This is a historic day . . . It is obvious that it feels a little surreal. We are many who have fought for years to reach this point and now we are here,” a Sweden Democrat spokesman told local media.

The poll is the latest indication of how populist, anti-immigration parties are on the march in the Nordics. The Danish People’s party was the second biggest in June’s elections as were the True Finns in Finland’s April vote.

Both the True Finns and the Progress party in Norway joined coalition governments for the first time in the last election.

But that option has not been open until now to the Sweden Democrats, which because of its roots in the neo-Nazi movement has been ostracised by all the other parties.

Political scientists cite that isolation as one of the biggest explanations for the surge in support for the Sweden Democrats as the party represents, for some, the only credible opposition. It follows a December deal on the budget between six of the eight parties in parliament, including all the main centre-left and centre-right groups.

YouGov’s methods are questioned by other polling companies as its uses self-recruited internet panels. But other polling companies have also vastly underestimated the strength of anti-immigration parties across Europe, including in Sweden’s elections last year. YouGov’s poll for July already showed the Sweden Democrats on 22.1 per cent, within 1 percentage point of being the largest party.

The growing refugee crisis in Europe led Germany on Wednesday to say it expects to receive a record 800,000 asylum seekers this year, more than all of the EU combined received in 2014.

By contrast, Swedish authorities recently cut their forecasts for how many asylum seekers would arrive this year from 90,000 to 74,000. But a number of violent incidents — including shootings and hand grenade attacks, especially in the southern city of Malmö — have led to questions about the segregation and integration of the large number of immigrants already in Sweden.

Sadly I fear that far right party's across Europe will benefit greatly from the current refugee crisis and that we will be seeing similar polling results from other nations in the near future.

[Thanas]

Sadly I fear that far right party's across Europe will benefit greatly from the current refugee crisis and that we will be seeing similar polling results from other nations in the near future.

And on what polls in what nations do you base this on?

[Sir Sirius]

And on what polls in what nations do you base this on?

Are you quite illiterate?

[Eleas]

The YouGov polls have not just been "criticized", they're pretty much demonstrated to be fraudulent. The bold-faced parts are my emphasis.

A myth is currently being promulgated via Metro and Facebook, the myth that the Sweden Democrats enjoy the support of almost eighteen percent of the population. The source is the notoriously unreliable Yougov.

Yougov markets itself as an opinion research institute, which fools many, for instance the biggest free newspaper in Sweden. Today, however, Synapze can reveal that contrary to an opinion poll which tries to get a representative sample of people, Yougov merely depends on people themselves signing in to their web panel. Recruiting others to the panel grants extra points in Yougov's online shop.

This spring, your author had already entered Yougov's web panel, after the time that Feministiskt Initiativ achieved war headlines in Metro due to its huge results specifically in Yougov's panel. I was able to add demographical data after my own head, and Yougov rewarded recruitment of like-minded compatriots. The effect quickly became apparent: I could see my preferred alternative Piratpartiet rise more in Yougov's polls than the general opinion polls. This may, the Pirate Party enjoyed six percent in Yougov's polls, which sadly was overshadowed by Feministiskt Initiativ at 18 percent in the same poll.

Aftonbladet published the result but withdrew it following criticism. Yougov then embroidered the numbers, lowering the Pirate Party by half and Feministiskt Initiativ by three-fourths, increasing the others proportionally. The explanation was that Yougov had "completely mixed up the numbers", which rings false when one looks at the uniform increase of other parties. In light of the simpler explanation that parties would be able to coup the poll, Yougov's explanation merely seems an attempt at dissembling to salvage their operation.

So now when you know this, take responsibility and do not spread Yougov's myths, particularly not the latest one.

Source on http://www.synapze.se

[Sir Sirius]

It is certainly a relief that those numbers are unreliable, Sweden Democrats being the third largest party in the Swedish parliament is bad enough.

[NoXion]

Is this the same YouGov that publishes polls in the UK? Could reflect poorly on results here if so...

[Thanas]

And on what polls in what nations do you base this on?

Are you quite illiterate?

No, just wondering what knowledge of the political climate in other European nations you have.

[cosmicalstorm]

They have been growing like a rocket in the polls, almost ten percent in a year. I don't think even the Social Democrats grew that fast when they were the new boys in town a century ago. They did come to dominate Swedish politics for most of the century.
If the current trend holds true (between 1.5 and 0.89 % growth / month for SD) they will be the largest party in the next election. Even if the next election is held this year it will be a landslide victory and nothing else.
Every other political party will have to combine into some kind of pro-immigration Power Ranger monster if they want to stay in power.

There is a very real sense of panic within the pro-immigration camp here in Sweden. Last week it was shown that anti-immigration news-sites are now shared equally with the state television on social media. Some have suggested that polls be completely stopped since they "show the wrong thing".

The Yougov poll did come very close to showing SD's real election result if memory serves me right, I think that SD will be largest in every polling institute by spring.