Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by Big Orange »

Ok, China is starting to buckle under sustaining a workforce of some of the cheapest wage serfs in the world:
Police stem south China riots amid migrant workers' anger

ZENGCHENG, China (Reuters) - Chinese riot police brought a semblance of calm to the riot-torn southern Chinese city of Zengcheng on Tuesday, but the anger of migrant workers at being discriminated against by the authorities remained palpable in this key export hub.

In the wake of the latest protests, a state think-tank warned that China's tens of millions of workers pouring into cities from the countryside would become a serious threat to stability unless they were treated more fairly.

Riot police poured into Zengcheng after migrant workers went on the rampage over the weekend to protest the abuse of a pregnant street hawker who had become a symbol of simmering grassroots discontent.

The protesters wrecked the government office in the city's Dadun suburb, setting alight at least six vehicles. Parts of iron gates and spiked fence lay twisted and broken.

"We're angry," said a migrant worker from Sichuan, nervous about revealing his name given the massive deployment of riot police in his neighbourhood. "I feel the rule of law here doesn't seem to exist ... the local officials can do what they want."

Zengcheng is around an hour's drive from Guangzhou, the affluent capital of far southern Guangdong province, which produces about a third of the country's exports. About 150 million workers have moved from the countryside to the city in search of a better standard of living.

Wages have improved, but there remains a stark gap between migrant workers and those originally from the city, which has fomented resentment and made many feel like second class citizens.

Other clashes have erupted in southern China in recent weeks, including in Chaozhou, where hundreds of migrant workers demanding payment of wages at a ceramics factory attacked government buildings and set vehicles ablaze.

"We have seen these kinds of disturbance on a regular basis in China for several years now. I think you can possibly say there has been a bit of an upsurge, certainly visible disturbance in the last few weeks," said Geoffrey Crothall of workers' rights group China Labour Bulletin.

"I don't think it will affect the investment environment in China as a whole. I think the impact of these disturbances on the Chinese economy as a whole are still very low level," he added.

TENEMENT BLOCKS

Zengcheng, surrounded by a warren of tenement blocks and small jeans factories, has become a vibrant export hub for garments. More than half of the city's population of 800,000 are migrant workers, many of whom from Sichuan.

Like millions of other migrant workers in the Pearl River Delta, those at Zengcheng say their already grim lives have become worse due to rampant inflation and discrimination.

Many migrant workers in Dadun complained about corrupt officials making random street arrests against hawkers, imposing discretionary "hygeine" charges and security fines on family-run denim factories, further eroding razor-thin earnings as the price of cotton yarn and wholesale denim fabric rise.

"We sometimes only earn several hundred yuan a month because we're paid per garment. There tend to be less orders in the first half of the year," said a middle-aged woman from Sichuan as she stitched a pile of black denim shorts while colleagues used abrasive tools to rip and scar jeans for a modish look.

Pork, a staple for many migrant workers, has increased from around 9 yuan to 13 yuan for half a kg over the past year, said Yu, the elderly migrant worker.

"We have no choice, we just have to make a living," he said in a grimy jeans factory where he was printing labels for a local brand. "We can't go home."

MAJOR DESTABILISING THREAT

The state think-tank report said the majority of migrant workers had no intention of returning to their rural origins, making them a serious threat to China's stability if their needs in the cities they now call home, were not better addressed.

"If they are not absorbed into urban society, and do not enjoy the rights that are their due, many conflicts will accumulate," the report, published on Tuesday, said.

"If mishandled, this will create a major destabilising threat," it said of the festering resentment. Though protests have become relatively common over anything from corruption to abuse of power, the ruling Communist Party is sensitive to any possible threat to its hold on power in the wake of the protests that have swept the Arab world. Despite pervasive censorship and government controls, word of protests, along with often dramatic pictures, spreads fast in China on mobile telephones and the Internet, especially on popular microblogging sites.
Reuters

This leads back to the PRC being a patchwork of smaller countries really, with a sharp divide between the impoverised rural provinces denuded of cheap workers to feed the factories in the wealthier urban regions, and now the out of town workers demand better wages and living standards. As shown in a older thread, problems are stirring in China but so-far it's still a smallish blip, however what about the rapidly increasing factory automation and America no longer wanting to be economically joined to China by the hip? Also I heard that Chinese manufacturers are keeping wages low by relocating factories into the more remote parts of the PRC recently.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by K. A. Pital »

The PRC has seen a lot of factory riots in the recent years. The urban-rural divide is becoming more and more visible, no wonder people get angry about getting pebbles while rich folks in the cities getting lots. It doesn't mean the workers are nationalist (protesting against corruption != nationalism - some of the protesting are Maoists, surely they aren't nationalist), so your "PRC is a patchwork of countries" thing is totally uncalled for.

This is an inevitable consequence of the PRC choosing the market as its mode of development. The blessing made the PRC a "factory of the world" and put the nation into a certain place in the so-called "world division of labour". Not the worst place, sure, but still a place where you don't get much leeway.
Big Orange wrote:however what about the rapidly increasing factory automation and America no longer wanting to be economically joined to China by the hip?
Not sure if America can do anything about it. Laws of the market work, and these laws say that manufacturing in America is expensive. Autarky infeasible. So despite American elite's wishes (or maybe vain electoral bluster), don't expect any changes to the world economic order - even in what concerns the China-America relations.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by ray245 »

Big Orange wrote: Also I heard that Chinese manufacturers are keeping wages low by relocating factories into the more remote parts of the PRC recently.
Which would be a good thing really, given that it would help to the inner provinces to industrialise and hopefully lived more people out of poverty.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by mr friendly guy »

ray245 wrote:
Big Orange wrote: Also I heard that Chinese manufacturers are keeping wages low by relocating factories into the more remote parts of the PRC recently.
Which would be a good thing really, given that it would help to the inner provinces to industrialise and hopefully lived more people out of poverty.
Indeed. China can be thought of as following the model of other Asian nations, starting off with cheap products, eg textiles then moving on to more expensive good, eg high tech goods as just one example. Since its so big it can simply shift the work to its poorer Western provinces and develop there, while its richer Eastern provinces focus on more higher end stuff.

If outsourcing gave China more economic growth, then I don't see whats the problem by "outsourcing" to their poorer regions.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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If their citizens start rioting because of the labor hard they're being expected to perform for hard wages, the conditions they live under, the fact that they're having to work more hours, and that corrupt local officials are abusing their authority, then that is the problem with the outsourcing, Friendly.

And Stas, I think "patchwork of smaller countries" is an economic critique here, not a nationalist one. It's not about there being people in the country who aren't considering themselves truly Chinese. It's that there are at least two different versions of China- the peasant farm population that's being herded into the cities by industrialization (as happened in early 19th century Britain?), and the urban working class which is in so many places working under miserable conditions (likewise). You can probably identify patches of other demographics as well.

Thus, people are moving into the cities, from one part of the patchwork to another, but are still stuck in an economically abusive situation because they're such a replaceable source of labor.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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here is an article discussing Chinese companies shifting to their poorer Western provinces (hint its not just Chinese companies that are thinking it, its multinationals as well).

The article is dated from March this year, but I will just put a few snippets.
A growing number of companies are moving to China's western or central areas because of rapidly rising labor costs elsewhere, according to a report released by Aon Hewitt, a global human capital consulting company.

Average salaries covering all major industries in China rose 8.4 percent in 2010, up 2.6 percentage points from a year earlier, according to the research.

"For this year, we forecast the country's overall salary increase rate will reach 9.1 percent," Peter Zhang, vice-president of Aon Hewitt Greater China, told China Daily.

The industries showing the highest pay rise in 2011 will be pharmaceutics at 9.6 percent, machinery at 9.3 percent and consumer goods at 9.1 percent, Zhang said.

One of the most crucial factors behind increasing labor costs in China is that government policies have increasingly favored workers and their rights, in a bid to redistribute and balance social income, according to the report.

"Rising wages will be a fact of life in the Chinese economy for some time to come because the Chinese government supports it, both as a means of avoiding social conflict but also, and equally importantly, as a means of promoting internal consumption and rebalancing the economy," said Auret van Heerden, president of the Fair Labor Association, in an article entitled 2011 China Labor Outlook. Local governments across China responded by raising minimum wages.

A total of 30 provinces, regions and municipalities raised their local minimum wages in 2010 with an average growth rate of 22.8 percent, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. However, experts warned that wage increases could be a double-edged sword.
Pretty straight forward explanation of the rising cost of employing workers in China.
Zhang at Aon Hewitt pointed out that an increasing number of companies are expanding their manufacturing footprint across the country's western or central areas to offset the rising labor costs.

"One of the biggest trends we have seen in 2010 was the industrial relocation to the country's interior and western provinces where the pay for workers is lower than those in the eastern coastal cities," he said.
For a bit of background, I found the Wiki article on Aon Hewitt, which is the result of Aon company taking over Hewitt associates. Yes its an American company, and yes its gets boring when someone posts an article from China and people accuse me of believing anything the CCP says even though the source doing the research is non Chinese. :roll:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aon_Corporation
But in addition to the lower labor costs in the western or central regions, companies have also noticed that there is huge potential for growth in these areas, Zhang added.

The US computer maker Dell Inc announced in September that it will open its second China operations center with manufacturing, sales and services in Chengdu in 2011, in order to supply the booming demand in West China.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, the world's largest contract maker of electronics products by revenue, is also planning several major investments in China's interior regions, including Chengdu and Zhengzhou in Henan province and Langfang in Hebei province.

Companies could enjoy the benefits of the government's ongoing efforts to promote the development of western China since the "go-west" campaign implemented in 2000.

In recent years, local governments of the western or central regions have put much effort into attracting investment by implementing preferential tax policies, as well as improving traffic flow by building railways and highways to link inland areas with ports in coastal areas.

As more renowned companies arrive in western or central regions, many college graduates are now opting to choose to stay closer to their homes rather than find jobs in sprawling cities such as Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou.
Another renown Chinese company planning to move inland is Lenovo.

Linky (dated last year)
For some multinational corporations that currently outsource largely to manufacturers in China, in addition to moving to China's interior regions, they are looking at other low-cost countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia as alternative sources for global production, according to a recent report from global management consulting company Accenture. However, multinationals considering these locations could face challenges such as less developed infrastructure in ports, roads and facilities, shortages of skilled workers and political instability, said Accenture.
Again pretty straight forward. Companies will look to the cheapest areas to manufacture. Some countries may be cheaper than China, but they have a few disadvantages as well. I remember when I was in uni Time magazine stated some African countries had lower cost of production than China, but China was favoured because it was more politically stable vs those African states.

Of course this slight, but interesting tangent came off from BO statement about China shifting work to its poorer inland regions, and he phrased it in such a way to give the impression that it was a bad thing. Keep in mind that shifting production to China (mainly in the East coast eg Guandong) has helped improve their economy and the standard of living, so I don't see why doing the same to their inland regions won't likewise improve standard of living in those poorer areas. In other words, why does BO think this is a bad thing?
Simon_Jester wrote:If their citizens start rioting because of the labor hard they're being expected to perform for hard wages, the conditions they live under, the fact that they're having to work more hours, and that corrupt local officials are abusing their authority, then that is the problem with the outsourcing, Friendly..
I was mainly referring to BO's point about transferring production to their poorer regions. I don't see a problem if it improves the standard of living there just like how it did in their (now) richer regions.
Simon_Jester wrote: Thus, people are moving into the cities, from one part of the patchwork to another, but are still stuck in an economically abusive situation because they're such a replaceable source of labor.
While I agree that conditions need to be improved, and the corruption of the local government needs to be stamped out, I can point out examples (in the article I linked) and the infamous Foxconn suicides that condition are improving. But I find your claim that "they're such a replaceable source of labor" questionable in this day and age based on economic articles I have come across.

In fact a simple google search on china and labor shortages turns out several articles discussing this phenomena. I suspect this shortage is one of the reasons Chinese workers are now finding themselves in a stronger position with good pay rises (granted their pay is still much less than ours, but 8% pay rise doesn't sound too shabby). Going on I have read articles (IIRC it was from cnn) about Vietnamese citizens sneaking across the border to do work in China which "The Chinese don't want to do" (at those wages). Sounds familiar. :D

Now I suppose if you meant by replaceable source of labour referring to so called non skilled labour and less to China in general, I will have to agree with you there, since that is a problem universally.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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There might be wage increases, but there's also reasonably strong inflation at the moment, which is pretty much cancelling out most of those wage increases.

Personally, I think the CCP should repeg the yuan against the US Dollar in order to ease pricing pressure, though I do understand that a currency reevaluation would affect their export sales.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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Big Orange wrote:This leads back to the PRC being a patchwork of smaller countries really, with a sharp divide between the impoverised rural provinces denuded of cheap workers to feed the factories in the wealthier urban regions, and now the out of town workers demand better wages and living standards. As shown in a older thread, problems are stirring in China but so-far it's still a smallish blip, however what about the rapidly increasing factory automation and America no longer wanting to be economically joined to China by the hip? Also I heard that Chinese manufacturers are keeping wages low by relocating factories into the more remote parts of the PRC recently.
Your first statement is misleading.

The reasons for the social unrest has nothing to do with the PRC being a patchwork of smaller countries but due to China development programme. A hugely simplified way of describing it is that China didn't have the knowhow and resources to develop the whole of china equally in the 80s, it focused on areas which were economically more strategic such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou and etc, areas near the coast which has been traditionally mercantile areas and more importantly, have closer economic links with Hong Kong or ports and etc. It is this unequal shift in economic development which led to the current social unrest.

Saying this is equivalent to the PRC being a patchwork of smaller countries would be equivalent to someone saying that the States is a patchwork of smaller countries because Alabahama is less developed than New York. The States themselves has a history of migration from Iowa and etc, as farming families abandon small farms and migrate to the bigger cities. The sole difference is that in the States at least, education oppurtinities and standards used to be relatively egalatarian, offering poorer families the oppurtinity to climb up the social ladder.
China does not have this. China in fact is suffering from a plethora of university graduates, who are flooding the skilled labour market.


One should note that such unrest isn't relatively new. Its a decades old problem that popped up everytime inflation kicks in. The first major unrest was during Tiananmen itself, when food inflation as well as the first movement towards a capitalist market sent unemployment and prices skyrocketing.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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Yeah. Wages are increasing a bit faster than inflation, but not by much.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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Simon_Jester wrote:If their citizens start rioting because of the labor hard they're being expected to perform for hard wages, the conditions they live under, the fact that they're having to work more hours, and that corrupt local officials are abusing their authority, then that is the problem with the outsourcing, Friendly.

And Stas, I think "patchwork of smaller countries" is an economic critique here, not a nationalist one. It's not about there being people in the country who aren't considering themselves truly Chinese. It's that there are at least two different versions of China- the peasant farm population that's being herded into the cities by industrialization (as happened in early 19th century Britain?), and the urban working class which is in so many places working under miserable conditions (likewise). You can probably identify patches of other demographics as well.

Thus, people are moving into the cities, from one part of the patchwork to another, but are still stuck in an economically abusive situation because they're such a replaceable source of labor.
This critique might have been true during the 90s, but the Chinese government go west programme in the 2000 has jumpstarted economic development in the West. Even with all the pictures of so called empty malls or unused factories(which come primarily from the Western provinces like Chengdu), one can argue that said provinces ARE growing and becoming increasingly intergrated with the country.

That doesn't change the fact that so called migrant workers still exist. For some of these people, we aren't looking at johnny hillbilly who just upped from the farm and decided to work in New York. We're looking at migrants who have literally worked in Guangzhou province and etc for over a decade, and still being treated like second class citizens.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by madd0ct0r »

Take this with a pinch of salt, because I'm not 100% on this myself.

I think part of the migrant workers problems are bureaucratic.

You have to be registered as living somewhere, and that somewhere is your hometown.
This is your point of contact for social services. If you are entitled to a house or to farming land, it will be here. If you are registered with a state hospital, it will be here.

If you are actually several thousand miles away, working in the big city, then that doesn't change where you are registered. It might make it difficult for you to work for a state organization, as you aren't in the right area. It might make it difficult for you to access social services, as either the option is designed for 'locals' or all your paperwork has to travel several thousand kilometers and back. (and trust me, it's still paperwork)

why would it be like this? inertia for one, city departments not wanting the extra processing for two, rural departments needing per capita funds for three and discouraging urban migration for four.

That last is from logistics. The big cities are getting overwhelmed. smaller cities might expect to absorb 10 million people over the next decade. that is a serious amount of infrastructure that has to be put in place. China has a lot of engineers. they look at Indian slums and shudder.

but take all this carefully, because I'm not 100% on the points, nor am I sure how up to date they are.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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You're pretty accurate with your description of the hukou there.

The system also keeps parents away from their children. Since children are registered under the hukou of one of their parents when they are born, they're expected to go to a school wherever their hukou is registered. I believe there are one or two schools in Shanghai which cater to the children of migrant workers, but mostly migrant workers have the option of either keeping their children out of school, or sending them back to live in the country with their grandparents. Some children don't even really know their parents, since migrant workers can't really afford to go back home more than once or twice a year, if that.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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That's a viewpoint I haven't considered. The fact is that Chinese migrant workers aren't just physically seperated from their family, the entire services, schools and etc for their families are registered in entirely different provinces as such..
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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My unintentionally misleading "patchwork of smaller countries" opinion is more about the PRC's fragmented, localised bureaucracy and economic/developmental disparities between provinces than particularily severe cultural/relgious/political/language schisms in most of the PRC:
3. The Central Government is a domestic paper tiger. The West marvels at the seemingly powerful grip of the Communist Party and the central government's functionaries on the nation, but this control is akin to a radioactive substance: it decays very quickly with time and distance from Beijing.

When it comes to social compliance issues such as ordering people to wear masks in public and closing down cities threatened with epidemics, the central government's authority functions well.

But when it comes to actually controlling local government, Beijing's level of control is near-zero. This can only be understood by having sources within local government; talking to Chinese yuppies in fancy hotel bars and Beijing officials will never get you close to the way things actually work in China: the real action is all at the local government level.
And that's an excerpt from this article:

Why The Wheels Are Falling Off China's Boom
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'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid

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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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Big Orange wrote:My unintentionally misleading "patchwork of smaller countries" opinion is more about the PRC's fragmented, localised bureaucracy and economic/developmental disparities between provinces than particularily severe cultural/relgious/political/language schisms in most of the PRC:
3. The Central Government is a domestic paper tiger. The West marvels at the seemingly powerful grip of the Communist Party and the central government's functionaries on the nation, but this control is akin to a radioactive substance: it decays very quickly with time and distance from Beijing.

When it comes to social compliance issues such as ordering people to wear masks in public and closing down cities threatened with epidemics, the central government's authority functions well.

But when it comes to actually controlling local government, Beijing's level of control is near-zero. This can only be understood by having sources within local government; talking to Chinese yuppies in fancy hotel bars and Beijing officials will never get you close to the way things actually work in China: the real action is all at the local government level.
And that's an excerpt from this article:

Why The Wheels Are Falling Off China's Boom
The Gordon Chang's et al of the macroeconomic field would just keep calling wolf until the cows come home, but the CCP isn't standing still on any of the economic issues regardless:

Changing China’s growth path
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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Yes, but you honestly believe that China's current industrial growth will carry on indefinitely? I wouldn't say the People's Republic of China will collapse in accordance to Gordon Chang's wishful thinking, but there's hidden snags cropping up that seem to be ignored by economists, like years of water supply problems that will be remedied by channeling water from Tibet (perhaps upsetting its rival, India).

China's industrialisation has happened and cannot be undone, they'll remain developed, the cake's been made, but the real question is how painful and dangerous will China's future economic development be?
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'Secondly, I don't see why "income inequality" is a bad thing. Poverty is not an injustice. There is no such thing as causes for poverty, only causes for wealth. Poverty is not a wrong, but taking money from those who have it to equalize incomes is basically theft, which is wrong.' - Typical Randroid

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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by K. A. Pital »

Big Orange wrote:Yes, but you honestly believe that China's current industrial growth will carry on indefinitely?
What is the problem of China going the way of Japan and Korea - reaching a plateau of high GDP/capita and remaining there? Considering that China is a typical SEA industrial economy?
Big Orange wrote:China's industrialisation has happened and cannot be undone, they'll remain developed, the cake's been made, but the real question is how painful and dangerous will China's future economic development be?
How painful and dangerous was Japan's economic development in 1970-1990?
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by Simon_Jester »

One risk is ecological- the sheer size of China's population means that the scale of industralization involved could cause a lot of damage to the land if they're not careful.

This has been a problem in other parts of the world too, witness the Aral Sea, or at the opposite extreme of what can go wrong, the Salton Sea (which is, admittedly, not such an unambiguous disaster). And those are just water management; there are other factors in play like soil disruption, chemical pollutants, and so on.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by K. A. Pital »

China's population is 10 times larger than Japan, but their territory is also several times larger, right?
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by mr friendly guy »

Assuming unpredictable things don't throw a spanner in China's works, like resource shortages, conflict over Taiwan etc, they still won't grow at this amazing rates indefinitely. Like various other Asian nations before them, eg Singapore, South Korea, Japan etc, their growth rate will slow once their standard of living increases and approaches that of developed and rich nations. By then if their economy will likely be the largest (if we assume things like similar population and similar GDP / capita).

I don't have my links with me since I am posting at work during my dinner break, but I can google some thing to help the topic of ecological problems in China. The problems besides water, also include energy, food, deforestation etc. I don't have time to go through all of them, but here are some articles on that. Its hardly a done deal that China will succumb to these challenges especially given that they aren't exactly ignoring it and are putting resources into it.

For example
Deforestation and their attempts to counter it.
World bank

Xinhua - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/i ... 478692.htm
Xinhua - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/c ... 464240.htm

Come on we had CNN a few years ago saying "each year china adds x number of kilometres of desert closer to Beijing" and it doesn't take a genius to work out that within a few years Beijing would be a desert. Whats the betting it won't happen?

Energy

nuclear and while they are reviewing their nukes, Western analysts I have read believe they will still pursue it despite the disaster at Fukishima, which has killed exactly how many people again?

Of course they are the number one in terms of wind power and producing lots of solar panels as well. But the nukes are going to make the main difference compared to the green technologies.

Food

For now they are a net exporter of food, although that may change in the future according to the article. So all they will have to do is buy from other countries, like us. :D

Of course there are certain foods they don't produce enough of, so they buy it, but overall they manage to meet the basic nutritional requirements.

However there is always GM food for the win, like their genetically engineered plants which Stas or Shep could tell more about, since they are the ones who mentioned it to me about crops that can grow after irrigated with sea water (sorry, links are on my home computer). Oh I forgot, Europeans have this thing against GM foods even before they are tested :P ).

But there is always Assuming unpredictable things don't throw a spanner in China's works, like resource shortages, conflict over Taiwan etc, they still won't grow at this amazing rates indefinitely. Like various other Asian nations before them, eg Singapore, South Korea, Japan etc, their growth rate will slow once their standard of living increases and approaches that of developed and rich nations. By then if their economy will likely be the largest (if we assume things like similar population and similar GDP / capita).

I don't have my links with me since I am posting at work during my dinner break, but I can google some thing to help the topic of ecological problems in China. The problems besides water, also include energy, food, deforestation etc. I don't have time to go through all of them, but here are some articles on that. Its hardly a done deal that China will succumb to these challenges especially given that they aren't exactly ignoring it and are putting resources into it.

For example
Deforestation and their attempts to counter it.
World bank

Xinhua - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/i ... 478692.htm
Xinhua - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/c ... 464240.htm

Come on we had CNN a few years ago saying "each year china adds x number of kilometres of desert closer to Beijing" and it doesn't take a genius to work out that within a few years Beijing would be a desert. Whats the betting it won't happen?

Energy

nuclear and while they are reviewing their nukes, Western analysts I have read believe they will still pursue it despite the disaster at Fukishima, which has killed exactly how many people again?

Of course they are the number one in terms of wind power and producing lots of solar panels as well. But the nukes are going to make the main difference compared to the green technologies.

Food

For now they are a net exporter of food, although that may change in the future according to the article. So all they will have to do is buy from other countries, like us. :D

Of course there are certain foods they don't produce enough of, so they buy it, but overall they manage to meet the basic nutritional requirements.

There is always GM food for the win (oh I forgot, Europeans have this thing against GM foods even before they are tested :P ). Ask Stas or Shep about it, since they were the ones who first piqued my curiosity when they mentioned it. I don't have links right now as they are on my home computer.

But there is always Green super rice which is bred, so no genetic engineering there.

water

The following article explains a bit about what they are doing. It appears aside from water diversion, they do desalination, although that won't produce that much. Pelranius posted an article a while back about they planned to increase water supply in Xinjiang. I think ultimately they just need to be better managers of water.

Here is the article

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... ter-crisis
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by K. A. Pital »

Hainan Uni's saltwater-irrigated rice is in experimental stages still, but it is clearly one of the most promising technologies in the field.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

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Their territory is larger, but their non-reliance on imports (for whatever reason) means they have less margin of error. They must grow the crops for 1.33 billion people on their territory, and if that is not done prudently, that can damage their land- by contrast, Japan relies heavily on fishing, which allows them to collect their food from a physically larger swathe of ocean. Even then they've inflicted real ecological damage on the ocean, as any whale might tell you, but it at least mitigates the impact.

China, more heavily reliant on land-based farming, doesn't have this safety valve. Trying to grow crops on land which was not productive with pre-industrial technology has risks- again, see the Virgin Lands program and the draining of the Aral Sea. Or the draining of aquifers in the US, for many of the same reasons.

For an example of this, the Chinese can perhaps learn how to grow rice by irrigating with seawater, but to create seawater rice paddies, I would think they have to effectively sow the paddies with salt, making them useless for other purposes and perhaps creating issues with salt deposition and the like.

Moreover, there is the risk from grand-scale engineering projects which may have questionable long term survivability, like the Three Gorges Dam- not a certainty, but a possibility of economic disaster there if something goes wrong and the dam breaks. There is also the problem of pollution in the inner cities harming the health of China's urban population, as is already happening in Beijing and probably in other lower-profile Chinese cities (I would think).

(I may be wrong about this, rice cultivation isn't one of my strong suits)

In any case, my basic point is that ecological limits on the development of China are a significant issue, over and above social issues and so forth.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by K. A. Pital »

Part of the problem is that other nations experienced their own problems with ecology which were often very drastic, but it did not make industrialization fail.

Not many people remember that in the 1970s, Japan's Tokyo was so full of fumes that policemen had to wear oxygen masks (the Tokyo smog a constant source of ridicule from the USSR, who wasn't a stellar ecology keeper either). Japan itself had a horrendous ecology record in the 60s and 70s when it industrialized.

Japanese agriculture is not sustainable if not for giant subsidies and Japan is a net food importer, no longer self-sufficient. Japan and South Korea have extremely low food sufficiency among developed nations - a common trend for new industrializing nations. The USSR also lost food self-sufficiency in the 1960s with imports of cattle fodder grains to boost meat production.

China will follow Japan's path, and of course the toll on ecology would be massive, just like in case with Japan. However, the toll on ecology can't make industrialization fail, stop or subside. Even a major disaster wouldn't stop it.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by Simon_Jester »

There is some threshold past which industrialization can be stopped by an ecological crisis, by default- but I will admit that it hasn't been reached anywhere I know of. The sheer scale of China's development is such that if anyone's going to find out where the precipice is by running over it, it'll be them.

Just... call it one more part of the difficulties the country faces; I wouldn't presume to say more than that.
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Re: Chinese Factory Workers Riot.

Post by mr friendly guy »

Simon's point about China relying mainly on land based food is true, however we shouldn't underestimate their water based resources, either aquaculture or fishing. Taking the wiki article,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquaculture_in_China
China, with one-fifth of the world's population, accounts for two-thirds of the worlds reported aquaculture production.[2][3]

Aquaculture is the farming of fish and other aquatic life in enclosures, such as ponds, lakes and tanks, or cages in rivers and coastal waters. China's 2005 reported harvest was 32.4 million tonnes, more than 10 times that of the second-ranked nation, India, which reported 2.8 million tonnes.[2]

China's 2005 reported catch of wild fish, caught in rivers, lakes, and the sea, was 17.1 million tonnes. This means that aquaculture accounts for nearly two-thirds of China's reported total output.
Right now, they are exporting a lot to other countries, like Japan. If necessary I can't imagine the government NOT cutting exports if they need to feed their own population. Again from the wiki article
Since 2002, China has been the world largest exporter of fish and fish products. In 2005, exports, including aquatic plants, were valued at US$7.7 billion, with Japan, the United States and the Republic of Korea as the main markets. In 2005, China was sixth largest importer of fish and fish products in the world, with imports totalling US$4.0 billion.[2]
more exports to Japan (source Xinhua)
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