Sweden 30 % Muslim by 2050

[cosmicalstorm]

The subject of "Eurabia" is controversial. Here is PEW's projections for European demographic change.

To see how the size of Europe’s Muslim population may change in the coming decades, Pew Research Center has modeled three scenarios that vary depending on future levels of migration. These are not efforts to predict what will happen in the future, but rather a set of projections about what could happen under different circumstances.

The high migration scenario is below:



As an atheist I find this awful.

Full article, also with Zero and Medium migration projections. But since Europe is currently doing High Migration I post that Picture.

http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/euro ... opulation/

[Crossroads Inc.]

Yeah and?
What exactly are you going to do about it? Pull a Trump and ban them?

[Terralthra]

As an atheist, you find it awful that Muslims are moving into a bunch of countries that are majority Christian? That seems pretty suspect.

[mr friendly guy]

Cosmicalstorm's feelings is most probably based on the argument that Christians have been de fanged and aren't like the Christians from a few hundred years ago. Muslims on the other hand are alleged to not be so, having not undergone some form of reformation etc. There is most likely a degree of truth to that, in the sense that they haven't been secularised as much (although that would depend on which part of the Muslim world). The penalty for being an atheist in a predominantly Christian country isn't exactly death.

That being said, if the Muslims are successfully integrated, then it most probably isn't an issue. The billion dollar question is will they. Bugger if I know.

[loomer]

Cool. Considering the bulk of muslims that come to the West integrate and westernize, what's the problem? Don't you like halal sausage?*

Also, it seems silly to use the high migration model - reliant on the current mass displacement to continue for the next 30 years without factoring in displacement from Greenland, Canada, and the US due to climate refugees that would bring an according rise in the proportion of Christian, Atheist and Others in the migration figures - as being somehow the most accurate. The current conflict in the Middle East is winding down from the last few years of extreme intensity, and the Syrian conflict in particular is - for better or worse, considering the victors - coming to a bloody end.

(*As any good barbecue-throwing Aussie knows, snags from a halal butcher are usually top bloody shelf compared to the stuff at the other butchers and supermarkets. Pricey, though.)

[Dragon Angel]

Cosmicalstorm's feelings is most probably based on the argument that Christians have been de fanged and aren't like the Christians from a few hundred years ago.

History can always repeat regarding Christian theocrats. See Russia for an example of what happens when Orthodox Christians gain a great measure of government influence.

(hint: it's not good for the gays)

...Anyway, given cosmicalstorm's previously-demonstrated proclivities, I think the title of this thread shows pretty much exactly what he's thinking. No need to add nuance where none exists.

[AniThyng]

Cool. Considering the bulk of muslims that come to the West integrate and westernize, what's the problem? Don't you like halal sausage?*

Also, it seems silly to use the high migration model - reliant on the current mass displacement to continue for the next 30 years without factoring in displacement from Greenland, Canada, and the US due to climate refugees that would bring an according rise in the proportion of Christian, Atheist and Others in the migration figures - as being somehow the most accurate. The current conflict in the Middle East is winding down from the last few years of extreme intensity, and the Syrian conflict in particular is - for better or worse, considering the victors - coming to a bloody end.

(*As any good barbecue-throwing Aussie knows, snags from a halal butcher are usually top bloody shelf compared to the stuff at the other butchers and supermarkets. Pricey, though.)

I dunno, I prefer pork to beef/chicken for my sausages.

I struggle daily to not let the increasing Islamisation of my home country poison my view but it's not easy.

[loomer]

Cool. Considering the bulk of muslims that come to the West integrate and westernize, what's the problem? Don't you like halal sausage?*

Also, it seems silly to use the high migration model - reliant on the current mass displacement to continue for the next 30 years without factoring in displacement from Greenland, Canada, and the US due to climate refugees that would bring an according rise in the proportion of Christian, Atheist and Others in the migration figures - as being somehow the most accurate. The current conflict in the Middle East is winding down from the last few years of extreme intensity, and the Syrian conflict in particular is - for better or worse, considering the victors - coming to a bloody end.

(*As any good barbecue-throwing Aussie knows, snags from a halal butcher are usually top bloody shelf compared to the stuff at the other butchers and supermarkets. Pricey, though.)

I dunno, I prefer pork to beef/chicken for my sausages.

I struggle daily to not let the increasing Islamisation of my home country poison my view but it's not easy.

Lamb sausage is the superior option and I will literally fist fight you behind any given Caltex to prove it.

[Zaune]

Cozzie, you need to experience the true glory that is the doner kebab. It will change your perspective on this issue drastically.

[wautd]

Cosmicalstorm's feelings is most probably based on the argument that Christians have been de fanged and aren't like the Christians from a few hundred years ago. Muslims on the other hand are alleged to not be so, having not undergone some form of reformation etc. There is most likely a degree of truth to that, in the sense that they haven't been secularised as much (although that would depend on which part of the Muslim world). The penalty for being an atheist in a predominantly Christian country isn't exactly death.

That being said, if the Muslims are successfully integrated, then it most probably isn't an issue. The billion dollar question is will they. Bugger if I know.

Which is a big if looking how lax and naive Sweden appears to be in defending/explaining their secular values (free speech, freedom of religion, equality between sexes) to immigrants from countries/cultures with completely opposite ideas.

[K. A. Pital]

A few notes. Yes, cosmical is our resident racist idiot.

No, it does not mean the idea of high migration levels from the Middle East being maintained is not valid, or does not have at least some valid basis.

First, the reduced intensity of conflict in Syria does not impact immigration from other regions, where intensity of conflict and/or deprivation may be rising (Libya, sub-Saharan Africa, Egypt). Second, climate change will increase migration pressures from the global South, as they're bound to bear the brunt of the impact. The Middle East will suffer a worsening of agricultural conditions, which many stipulated was the background to the mass protests and civil wars of this decade. If the worsening of conditions continues, food crises can become more acute. World hunger has been rising for the last few years, "unexpectedly" for some, but predictably for others.

Second, the idea of integration succeeding requires arguments. It cannot be stated as fact. As an example, honor killings represent now a substantial threat to women in Europe, and one has to be completely oblivious to the resurgence and its connection to immigration levels from societies where honor killings remain a very acute and terrible problem. As honor killings are rising in number and prominence, it seems that there is a vast number of people who only partially integrate or don't integrate at all. As the general immigrant population is rising, so will the share of partially- and non-integrated people.

Third, the ability of fundamentalist Christianity to resume similar actions (honor killings or assault, killing gays etc) is directly related to the erosion of the secular state. Although fundamentalist Christianity and Islam may hate each other as heathens, they will work together to reduce and degrade the secular state. As secularizations relies on strong separation of Church and state and suppression of parallel power structures - most secularization achievements have been achieved through blood, by repressing the Church to curtail its power - the emergence of parallel-power structures like Sharia courts and inter-community dispute settlement among Muslims is nothing but alarming to an extreme degree.

Fourth, the rigidity and resistance of religious fanaticism to secularization cannot, and should not, be underestimated.

[mr friendly guy]

Most Muslims I have met are reasonably integrated, although they were of the educated variety. However there are various worrisome signs and we need to be able to have a discussion. For example over 40% of UK muslims supports aspects of Sharia Law, and before someone nitpicks the aspect, I can point out that more than half of UK muslims think homosexuality should be illegal.

Clearly there are some big problems with integrating muslims as a group to date. Note I am not going to say whose fault it is there are such large number of Muslims who don't integrate.

Some of the more nuance on the Right, eg Douglas Murray would argue this. Now I am no sure if Cosmicalstorm is going to go for this level of nuance, but I think this is certainly an issue that we need to be willing to look at.

[Simon_Jester]

We can talk intelligently about the maximum proportion of immigrants a society can accommodate without being its value system broken up by demographic shift. It is reasonable for us to think countries have a right to protect their value system by only taking this many immigrants.

The problem is when arguments like the above are replaced by random shrieks of fear, or by belligerently obtuse refusal to consider the issue.

[B5B7]

I have heard rubbish like this about how Islam is going to take over Britain and/or Europe before.
It is based on the presumption that being Muslim is a genetic condition.
If this is so, then where do atheists come from?
After all if two Christians have children those children will be Christian, and their children will be Christian also, and so on.
Yet in Britain today over half the population is basically irreligious. The "genes" don't seem to be being passed on.
It is because the children of Christians CAN become unbelievers. Religions are NOT genetic after all.
Similarly, when exposed to a secular society (instead of being raised in a theocratic state, and often even then) the children of Muslims will often become unbelievers too.
Even those who do stay Muslim are not generally radical fanatics but just ordinary people, just like not all Christians are fanatics who blow up federal buildings.

[Broomstick]

Cozzie, you need to experience the true glory that is the doner kebab. It will change your perspective on this issue drastically.

Just don't confuse them with Donner kebabs

[Zaune]

Quite. Even if there are many off-colour jokes told about exactly where the proprietors of downmarket kebab shops get their meat...

Seriously, though, food culture plays a much-underappreciated but very important role in building bridges between newly-arriving immigrants and the majority culture. Case in point: "Shawarma Law, Not Sharia". And in Sweden's case, there's already a good starting point for finding common grounds -pardon the pun- because Scandanavians take their coffee culture at least as seriously as people from the Middle East.

[Elheru Aran]

One also has to wonder how many legit Taliban/crazy hardliner types are emigrating. Sure, maybe they SEEM pretty hardline Islamist compared to Muslims who have lived in the country longer and been more acculturated... but I bet most of the serious burqa-enforcing, Wahhabbist-hating-because-they're-not-conservative-enough types stay right where they are because shitty as their situations are, at least it's not the immoral West (and they're probably part of the local power structure to boot as well).

Yes, I would expect there to be enclaves of radical fundamentalists. I would also expect that over a generation or two, quite possibly less, there's going to be a lot less fundamentalists than moderates who might enjoy a nice drink in the bar down the street with their Western friends and maybe sneak a bit of pork sausage on the sly. A lot does depend on how the current generation of Europeans accept the immigrants.

[Broomstick]

Every time I hear about the Muslim Invasion I think of the two young gentlemen who are frequent customers at the store where I work, who purchase bourbon, beer, and pork chops then show Saudi Arabian passports to prove they're old enough to purchase the alcohol. The people in the lands they immigrate to affect the immigrants - and even just the tourists - as much as the other way around.

That, and I grew up near Detroit, which has some of the highest concentrations of Muslims in the US. The primary effect has been a liking of Middle Eastern food and learning to wish observant Muslims a blessed fast during Ramadan. I'm not afraid of people in headscarves.

[Terralthra]

I teach community college in a part of the SF Bay Area that has large Muslim populations and enclaves, and I have a substantial number of Muslim students. The majority of them are drastically westernized compared even to their parents. It really doesn't take much in the way of media and peer group influence to move people susceptible to such influence (young, in other words) from strongly to weakly religious.

[Dragon Angel]

Sometimes, I have to wonder where these cartoon Muslims cosmicalstorm and his ilk have heart attacks over are. In the sum of my life experiences in NYC (30 years, anecdotal, blah blah) I have only seen one live woman in a burqa. She was part of a family waiting for a train in Penn Station. That family also seemed to have two daughters who were wearing hijabs, but ... a hijab is definitively not a burqa. Which made me consider that her wearing the burqa was from her own personal choice, not really thrust upon her.

I don't exactly like the burqa, but if someone is wearing it of their own will, why should I judge any further?

I've known plenty of Muslims in my life. None of them have been people who strike me as the type to advocate religious oppression like the Right keeps telling me all 1.x billion of them would. Even if half my body was blown up tomorrow by a suicide bomber, I'd still realize Islam is not a monolithic block of those types of people. Because those people have something else going on in their minds, that only uses religion as an excuse for their violence.

Certainly, being in countries that are not war-torn hellscapes would help infinitely more to convince even the most radical Muslims not to follow that path, instead of keeping them trapped in places that will only serve to make them hate the West even further. I welcome the diversity that will come in several generations.

[Zaune]

Sometimes, I have to wonder where these cartoon Muslims cosmicalstorm and his ilk have heart attacks over are.

Exclusively in their fevered imaginations, frankly.

[K. A. Pital]

We can talk intelligently about the maximum proportion of immigrants a society can accommodate without being its value system broken up by demographic shift. It is reasonable for us to think countries have a right to protect their value system by only taking this many immigrants.

Most countries that implemented limits were chastised for it as being unfair to refugees and abandoning their duty, and were portayed - not unfairly - as being led by rightist leaders who pander to local nationalists.

I have heard rubbish like this about how Islam is going to take over Britain and/or Europe before. It is based on the presumption that being Muslim is a genetic condition. If this is so, then where do atheists come from?

It is true that Muslims can deconvert, but it is also true that Muslim countries are a lot more punishing to atheists to live in than non-Muslim countries. I'm not speaking of outliers here where atheists get sent to prison or killed, but even in Turkey life seems hard enough with legal proceedings, cases etc.

Similarly, when exposed to a secular society (instead of being raised in a theocratic state, and often even then) the children of Muslims will often become unbelievers too. Even those who do stay Muslim are not generally radical fanatics but just ordinary people, just like not all Christians are fanatics who blow up federal buildings.

Turkey's government has secularized a huge country, but today fanatics are trying to get to the helm again, with Erdogan and radical islamist sympathizers being involved in the Syrian bloodbath and the repression of secularists and atheists in Turkey proper. Baath countries used to be secular societies, but now they're violent hellholes ruled by ISIS and other madmen. It does seem that secularization in the Middle East, as a whole, was less of a success than elsewhere.

[Elheru Aran]

It does seem that secularization in the Middle East, as a whole, was less of a success than elsewhere.

"There are no atheists in a foxhole"--

It's easier to be secular when you're at peace. Iraq was ruled by Hussein for, what, thirty years almost? Uprisings and the various little wars aside (well, not so little for Hussein etc. I suppose), it didn't have that much conflict going on, and it was easier to promote things like education, public health, and gender equality. In wartime, there's less time for those things, and thus religion fills in the gaps since it's about the only thing that doesn't require a huge time and resource commitment-- the people provide what it needs, believers and leaders.

So I wouldn't say that the Middle East not being secularized particularly has that much to do with Islam, it has more to do with the constant conflict in the area preventing the rise of secular influences on those countries. Iran and Saudi Arabia, while run by religious fundamentalists, are doing fairly well as far as modernization goes, and SA is liberalizing to some degree now that the new heir is effectively in power there.

[Dragon Angel]

I have heard rubbish like this about how Islam is going to take over Britain and/or Europe before. It is based on the presumption that being Muslim is a genetic condition. If this is so, then where do atheists come from?

It is true that Muslims can deconvert, but it is also true that Muslim countries are a lot more punishing to atheists to live in than non-Muslim countries. I'm not speaking of outliers here where atheists get sent to prison or killed, but even in Turkey life seems hard enough with legal proceedings, cases etc.

Except Britain/Europe are not made up of Muslim countries? B5B7 was talking about them, and how living in them tends to secularize Muslims.

[K. A. Pital]

Except Britain/Europe are not made up of Muslim countries? B5B7 was talking about them, and how living in them tends to secularize Muslims.

Living in a foreign country isn't automatically going to secularize people. Otherwise the big number of foreign fighters in the Iraq/Syria civil war, especially from Belgium, can't be explained.

So I wouldn't say that the Middle East not being secularized particularly has that much to do with Islam, it has more to do with the constant conflict in the area preventing the rise of secular influences on those countries. Iran and Saudi Arabia, while run by religious fundamentalists, are doing fairly well as far as modernization goes, and SA is liberalizing to some degree now that the new heir is effectively in power there.

I think it is a misrepresentation to say the region is plagued by constant violence - more on that below, but even relatively well-off nations like Iran and KSA are being run by islamists (and the "KSA is reforming" play has been going on for years - I'm rather inclined to say no, it's not).

What is alarming is that despite relative periods of peace and prosperity (say, end of islamist uprisings in 1980 and the start of unrest in 2011 - that's 30 years, two generations), secularization suffers massive setbacks even under relatively sane, quasi-democratic systems, where islamist parties push watered-down Sharia law legislation.

One shouldn't turn a blind eye to this just because other societies had success in secularization. The causes of failure must be investigated further.