Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

Post by mr friendly guy »

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-08/s ... ce/5726836
Scottish independence: British government offers sweeteners to stay in UK as poll shows Yes vote growing

The British government is scrambling to court Scottish voters after an opinion poll showed a majority in support of independence for the first time.

A YouGov poll released on Sunday found that 51 per cent of Scots favoured a Yes vote in the September 18 independence referendum, with 49 per cent of respondents saying they would vote No.

The two-point gap is within the poll's margin of error but YouGov president Peter Kellner says recent polls have seen a "big shift" towards independence as undecided voters switch to the Yes camp.

The UK government has been quick to respond to the shift, announcing a plan of action to give the Scots greater devolution, a move which Westminster says would give them "the best of both worlds".

"You will see in the next few days a plan of action to give more powers to Scotland, more tax powers, more spending powers, more plans and powers over the welfare state," chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne said.

"The timetable for delivering that will be put into effect the moment there is a No vote in the referendum, and then Scotland will have the best of both worlds.

"They will both avoid the risks of separation, but have more control over their own destiny, which is where I think many Scots want to be."

Salmond accuses Westminster of 'panicked' bribe

Scotland's first minister Alex Salmond, who is leading the push for independence, said the new efforts were a sign of desperation rather than a real offer.

"No doubt they'll cobble something together, because having failed to scare the Scottish people, obviously the next step is to try and bribe us," he said.

"If this was a significant new offer, as opposed to a panicked measure, because the Westminster elite are losing this campaign, then wouldn't we have heard about it before hundreds of thousands of people in Scotland have already cast their ballots by post?"

Mr Kellner said Mr Salmond had managed to ease undecided voters' fears over independence.

"It's neck and neck. I'm not going to call the outcome on the basis of a two-point gap," he said.

"This is well within the margin of error. It is on a knife edge. But I think what's happened is that Alex Salmond has managed to neutralise the biggest negative, which is the fear factor."

Poll results hit the pound

Scotland already enjoys a large measure of devolution, having had its own parliament since 1999 with the power to legislate in policy areas such as education, health, the environment, housing and justice.

Further devolution, often referred to as "devo max" could see all powers handed over to Scotland except defence and foreign affairs.

Polls have previously shown many Scots would favour this over outright independence, and Mr Salmond had unsuccessfully pushed to have it as an option on the referendum ballot paper.

However the possibility was vetoed by British prime minister David Cameron, who was betting that the stark choice of Yes or No to independence would deliver a clear victory for the status quo as cautious voters turned away from an uncertain future.

A separate poll on Sunday by Panelbase, commissioned by the pro-independence campaign, showed support for a breakaway rising but still short of a majority at 48 per cent, falling to 44 per cent when undecided voters were included.

The late showing by the independence camp has also hit sterling on the foreign exchange markets.

The pound suffered its worst week against the US dollar in more than a year after the results of YouGov's poll.

"Sterling looks to be set for another challenging week," Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said.

"While there will likely be a significant reaction early on in the week... how much further the pressure on sterling ramps up will likely depend on whether polls continue to show the Yes vote improving."

A vote to break away from the United Kingdom would be followed by negotiations with London on what to do about the currency, national debt, North Sea oil and the future of a Royal Navy nuclear submarine base at Faslane, near Glasgow.

If the Yes vote succeeds, independence has been pencilled in for March 24, 2016.

The pro-independence side has said it believes the rest of Britain would agree to a currency union in the event of a Scottish breakaway, allowing the new state to use the pound.

This has been rejected by Britain's three main political parties, and Mr Osborne remained adamant on Sunday.

"No ifs, no buts, we will not share the pound if Scotland separates from the rest of the UK," he said.
I remember it being said Cameron outmanoeuvred Salmon by insisting on a referendum for independence rather than just for further devolution, whereas its speculated Salmon was happy simply for further devolution. Well it might very well come back to bite him in the sense that it looks like London will give Scotland more devolution (which was supposedly what Salmon wanted) or Scotland becomes independent. The high yes vote puts pressure for more devolution if it just falls short of independence.

What I want to discuss are the consequences of either outright independence or "devo max" as the article puts it. What would the Scots do differently if they had more leeway?

------------------------------------------------
On another note, "devo max" sounds like London gets suzerainty over Scotland in practice with sovereignty in name. Oh wait, the British don't recognise that type of "special relationship" anymore. :D
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Wasn't part of the increased devolution that Scotland would be collecting the income tax from its residents instead of those taxes being collected by the UK government?

I'm not sure how that is going to work out. I'm presuming that Scotland would then have to cover certain government services in its territory, but would it have to contribute a certain amount
to the operating of the rest of the UK?
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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The scots are in a huge bind with regards to the pound. They can't keep it, but they'll not be allowed to join the Euro either (Spain will almost certainly block). Meaning the entire banking sector of scotland might very well collapse.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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A small price for freedom from the British crown, is it not? Many paid an even greater price.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Stas Bush wrote:A small price for freedom from the British crown, is it not? Many paid an even greater price.
Sure, if the scots see it that way, then more power for them. But given the many risk for not much gain....I mean, they could get greater devolution if they wanted to. But a nation of five million people, who most likely won't even get to keep the oil benefits, and unlike the other small nations don't have a larger nation backing them? For gods sakes, they are smaller than balkan states.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Finland prospers. Iceland, for all the laughs, is a nationstate. Ireland is a nation and so is Greece. Your attitude is entirely unwarranted.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Stas Bush wrote:Finland prospers. Iceland, for all the laughs, is a nationstate. Ireland is a nation and so is Greece.
Yeah and all those have huge backers. Scotland would have...who again in Europe?
Your attitude is entirely unwarranted.
What attitude? You know damn well I'm no fan of the british government. Doesn't prevent me from calling it as I see it.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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So people are ready to support failures like Latvia which lose 30% of population due to emigration, but there will be no one to support a prosperous independent nation like Norway with oil, industry and high tech? Truly then they are hypocrites.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Stas Bush wrote:So people are ready to support failures like Latvia which lose 30% of population due to emigration, but there will be no one to support a prosperous independent nation like Norway with oil, industry and high tech? Truly then they are hypocrites.
Oil? Where does it say the Brits will let them keep the oil?

Do you think the brits would let them get Farslane as well?

I don't think so in either case.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Thanas wrote:
Stas Bush wrote:So people are ready to support failures like Latvia which lose 30% of population due to emigration, but there will be no one to support a prosperous independent nation like Norway with oil, industry and high tech? Truly then they are hypocrites.
Oil? Where does it say the Brits will let them keep the oil?

Do you think the brits would let them get Farslane as well?

I don't think so in either case.
Infringing on common sense? EEZ is a sovereign right. If they get independence, they get EEZ. And they can enforce it.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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I highly doubt the Royal Navy will just let them walk out with the entire boomer infrastructure.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Thanas wrote:I highly doubt the Royal Navy will just let them walk out with the entire boomer infrastructure.
Naval lease is a working solution.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Thanas wrote:I highly doubt the Royal Navy will just let them walk out with the entire boomer infrastructure.
Well, they can't exactly take the buildings with them.

Seriously, though, the Scots will probably be stuck with a Royal Navy presence at Faslane for however long it takes to set up facilities elsewhere. Maybe longer if the rUK insists on keeping the base in return for other concessions. The same goes for RAF Lossiemouth.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

Post by Edi »

I spent last week over there and the signs for both sides of the issue were prominently visible everywhere. Couldn't turn around without getting your eye figuratively poked out by a huge yes or no banners and Scottish flags. Even in the small villages we saw from the bus window on the way from Balloch to Inverary.

Didn't talk about the referendum with the locals, as it is potentially a touchy subject, but some of them certainly weren't shy about expressing their feelings. I got the impression that for quite a lot of them it is very much an issue decided on emotion.

What it means in real world terms is going to be another barrel of fish altogether.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Stas Bush wrote:A small price for freedom from the British crown, is it not? Many paid an even greater price.
The British 'yoke,' such as it is, doesn't rest that heavily on Scotland.

If they want to be rid of it that's their right, but it would be wise for them to think about the consequences, just as it always is before a major political change.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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My understanding (and I live in Scotland) is that of the No camp wins Scotland will get the capability to set their own rate of income tax and I assume that tax alone will be spent in Scotland.

Personally I'm a No supporter. I certainly don't think that most Scottish People will be better off if we become a separate country and even if we did I don't feel separation is morally justified on the grounds that I might be better off personally if it means more people we be worse off.

However, I have to say that the actual No campaign has been pitiful so far compared to the Yes's who have been far more visible although I do find most of their arguments on very rocky grounds.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Probably a relatively insignificant question especially considering more important issues such as the economy, but would the UK still be called the United Kingdom if Scotland breaks away? Or would Northern Ireland and Wales still count?
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Borgholio wrote:Probably a relatively insignificant question especially considering more important issues such as the economy, but would the UK still be called the United Kingdom if Scotland breaks away? Or would Northern Ireland and Wales still count?
While the term United Kingdom was used informally during the 18th century following the Union of the kingdoms of England and Scotland, it only became the formal name of the state following the Union of the Kingdom of Great Britain and the Kingdom of Ireland, so I would think that it is still the United Kingdom while Northern Ireland is a part of it. Of course, there is the further question of exactly what it would be the United Kingdom of - it would not be Great Britain and Northern Ireland, since it would no longer encompass the entire island of Great Britain. Perhaps 'the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland', which has the advantage of having the same number of syllables as the previous name. An alternative would be 'the United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland'. And that's not even getting into the issues of what changes would have to be made to the Union Flag, or the coat of arms.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

Post by Elheru Aran »

I am unclear; is the referendum for full independence from the UK, as in Scotland becoming entirely its own country, or is it more along the lines of Scotland becoming notionally independent but in practice still largely part of the UK?
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Elheru Aran wrote:I am unclear; is the referendum for full independence from the UK, as in Scotland becoming entirely its own country, or is it more along the lines of Scotland becoming notionally independent but in practice still largely part of the UK?
Total independence. The Scottish Nationalists actually wanted the second option on the referendum, but the Conservatives insisted on a straight Yes/No.

I think they're starting to regret that decision, because the No campaign has consisted largely of scare tactics and veiled threats to be wilfully obstructive to the point of sabotage if they do go; it's probably been a more successful argument for a Yes vote than the actual Yes campaign, which has been not unjustly criticised for giving the impression that the SNP intend to make it up as they go along and hope for the best. (Which isn't necessarily a problem if you ask me; comprehensive, minutely detailed master plans drawn up while the problem was still purely hypothetical have a nasty habit of going awry when reality refuses to cooperate.)
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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The former. Cameron pushed for the most extreme question to try and scare off moderates who just like more devolution but not a full split.

A major camp for yes are Old Labour voters, who see it as a away to stop Cameron further damaging the social state. Ironically, if they do spilt, the Tory majority might take rUK out of Europe.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Stas Bush wrote:
Thanas wrote:I highly doubt the Royal Navy will just let them walk out with the entire boomer infrastructure.
Naval lease is a working solution.
That's what Ukraine said :lol: :lol: :lol:

The most important question is the one about currency. Scotland has most of it's trade with England, so introducing a own currency would mean a lot of transaction costs and risks. If they keep the Sterling unilaterally they will be bound to any decision of the Bank of England without having any influence. Which ironically means that if they become independent they will have less say in one of the most important economic matters. How much that matters can be seen in the Eurozone. There the central bank set the rates with focus on the core nations and first let inflation run high in the periphery and now let it suffer deflation. In the UK Scotland's interest are not the focus, but because they are fiscally integrated the central government will transfer funds to them and guarantee pensions, health care and unemployment insurance. Of course if all transfers are cut by conservatives it doesn't really matter. But even with US level of transfers it makes a difference.
Personally I feel sympathetic to Scottish independence. Hopefully it will weaken the influence of the free market fetishists from the London city. Then again I'm nor sure if it's worth to get rid of the British "yoke" rule if it means you'll lose your job and international multis buy your tiny government. But in the end the Scots must decide.

Here a opinion piece by Paul Krugman, who happens to be an expert on international trade:

Link
Scots, What the Heck?
Next week Scotland will hold a referendum on whether to leave the United Kingdom. And polling suggests that support for independence has surged over the past few months, largely because pro-independence campaigners have managed to reduce the “fear factor” — that is, concern about the economic risks of going it alone. At this point the outcome looks like a tossup.

Well, I have a message for the Scots: Be afraid, be very afraid. The risks of going it alone are huge. You may think that Scotland can become another Canada, but it’s all too likely that it would end up becoming Spain without the sunshine.

Comparing Scotland with Canada seems, at first, pretty reasonable. After all, Canada, like Scotland, is a relatively small economy that does most of its trade with a much larger neighbor. Also like Scotland, it is politically to the left of that giant neighbor. And what the Canadian example shows is that this can work. Canada is prosperous, economically stable (although I worry about high household debt and what looks like a major housing bubble) and has successfully pursued policies well to the left of those south of the border: single-payer health insurance, more generous aid to the poor, higher overall taxation.

Does Canada pay any price for independence? Probably. Labor productivity is only about three-quarters as high as it is in the United States, and some of the gap may reflect the small size of the Canadian market (yes, we have a free-trade agreement, but a lot of evidence shows that borders discourage trade all the same). Still, you can argue that Canada is doing O.K.

But Canada has its own currency, which means that its government can’t run out of money, that it can bail out its own banks if necessary, and more. An independent Scotland wouldn’t. And that makes a huge difference.

Could Scotland have its own currency? Maybe, although Scotland’s economy is even more tightly integrated with that of the rest of Britain than Canada’s is with the United States, so that trying to maintain a separate currency would be hard. It’s a moot point, however: The Scottish independence movement has been very clear that it intends to keep the pound as the national currency. And the combination of political independence with a shared currency is a recipe for disaster. Which is where the cautionary tale of Spain comes in.

If Spain and the other countries that gave up their own currencies to adopt the euro were part of a true federal system, with shared institutions of government, the recent economic history of Spain would have looked a lot like that of Florida. Both economies experienced a huge housing boom between 2000 and 2007. Both saw that boom turn into a spectacular bust. Both suffered a sharp downturn as a result of that bust. In both places the slump meant a plunge in tax receipts and a surge in spending on unemployment benefits and other forms of aid.

Then, however, the paths diverged. In Florida’s case, most of the fiscal burden of the slump fell not on the local government but on Washington, which continued to pay for the state’s Social Security and Medicare benefits, as well as for much of the increased aid to the unemployed. There were large losses on housing loans, and many Florida banks failed, but many of the losses fell on federal lending agencies, while bank depositors were protected by federal insurance. You get the picture. In effect, Florida received large-scale aid in its time of distress.
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Spain, by contrast, bore all the costs of the housing bust on its own. The result was a fiscal crisis, made much worse by fears of a banking crisis that the Spanish government would be unable to manage, because it might literally run out of cash. Spanish borrowing costs soared, and the government was forced into brutal austerity measures. The result was a horrific depression — including youth unemployment above 50 percent — from which Spain has barely begun to recover.

And it wasn’t just Spain, it was all of southern Europe and more. Even euro-area countries with sound finances, like Finland and the Netherlands, have suffered deep and prolonged slumps.

In short, everything that has happened in Europe since 2009 or so has demonstrated that sharing a currency without sharing a government is very dangerous. In economics jargon, fiscal and banking integration are essential elements of an optimum currency area. And an independent Scotland using Britain’s pound would be in even worse shape than euro countries, which at least have some say in how the European Central Bank is run.

I find it mind-boggling that Scotland would consider going down this path after all that has happened in the last few years. If Scottish voters really believe that it’s safe to become a country without a currency, they have been badly misled.
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

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Welf wrote:The most important question is the one about currency. Scotland has most of it's trade with England, so introducing a own currency would mean a lot of transaction costs and risks. If they keep the Sterling unilaterally they will be bound to any decision of the Bank of England without having any influence. Which ironically means that if they become independent they will have less say in one of the most important economic matters. How much that matters can be seen in the Eurozone. There the central bank set the rates with focus on the core nations and first let inflation run high in the periphery and now let it suffer deflation.
On the other hand, Montenegro unilaterally adopted Euro and I didn't hear of any big problems due to that in there. Did I miss them? The other option is adopting Scottish Pound pegged to UK one - similar to 22 countries that peg currencies to Euro. If the Pound later is no longer good for them, they have option of float or transfer to Euro. Would either of these two options be so bad?

Also, not many people know this, but in theory, Scottish Pound is already issued by local banks, not Bank of England, and is technically not a legal tender outside of Scotland, it can be freely refused even in the rest of UK. They are backed mostly by Scottish funds, not by central bank, so you can say they are already separate currency to a degree. In fact, Scotland already has most of instruments of other national banks and the threat to take these away was one of the things that helped independence debate:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland-s ... -1-1172275

UK agreed to let the deal stand for the time being, but the threat City changes its mind and tries money grab on the fund is much larger if Scotland stays, IMHO.
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mr friendly guy
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

Post by mr friendly guy »

Thanas wrote:
Stas Bush wrote:A small price for freedom from the British crown, is it not? Many paid an even greater price.
Sure, if the scots see it that way, then more power for them. But given the many risk for not much gain....I mean, they could get greater devolution if they wanted to. But a nation of five million people, who most likely won't even get to keep the oil benefits, and unlike the other small nations don't have a larger nation backing them? For gods sakes, they are smaller than balkan states.
Uh, Singapore.
Zaune wrote:
Seriously, though, the Scots will probably be stuck with a Royal Navy presence at Faslane for however long it takes to set up facilities elsewhere. Maybe longer if the rUK insists on keeping the base in return for other concessions. The same goes for RAF Lossiemouth.
While the vote is on sept 18, independence won't occur until March 2016 if the YES vote wins. This gives time to set up facilities elsewhere.
Borgholio wrote:Probably a relatively insignificant question especially considering more important issues such as the economy, but would the UK still be called the United Kingdom if Scotland breaks away? Or would Northern Ireland and Wales still count?
Actually another important question is what will the flag look like, since its a combination of English and Scottish flags. What then happens to countries which use the British Union Jack in their flags, like Australia for example?
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Eternal_Freedom
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Re: Lets talk about the Scottish referendum

Post by Eternal_Freedom »

It goes beyond even national flags, Hawai'i has the Union Flag as part of the state flag.
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Centurion: "Sir, I really think you should look at the other Battlestar."
Baltar: "What are you babbling about other...it's impossible!"
Centurion: "No. It is a Battlestar."

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