Brexit and not very united kingdom politics II

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Hard to say. Latest word is that the leadership contest will last one week. Presumably the last one was too long even for them.

[Crazedwraith]

It's not clear how they will have a leadership contest in one week and consulate the party membership.

[Crazedwraith]

ghetto edit: consult, even.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Further details.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... e-minister

Liz Truss resigns as PM and triggers fresh leadership election
Truss says she will step down after a week-long emergency contest to find successor

Peter Walker, Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot
Thu 20 Oct 2022 15.05 BST

Liz Truss has resigned as prime minister and will step down after a week-long emergency contest to find her successor, she has announced outside Downing Street.

It follows a turbulent 45 days in office during which Truss’s mini-budget crashed the markets, she lost two key ministers and shed the confidence of almost all her own MPs.

Her statement came after she met Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs, at Downing Street, followed by her deputy prime minister, Thérèse Coffey, and the party chair, Jake Berry.

Truss said she had entered office with “a vision for a low-tax, high-growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit”.

She went on: “I recognise that, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative party. I have therefore spoken to His Majesty the King to notify him that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative party.

“This morning I met the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady. We’ve agreed that there will be a leadership election to be completed within the next week. This will ensure that we remain to deliver our fiscal plans and maintain our country’s economic stability and national security. I will remain as prime minister until a successor has been chosen.”

A new leader will be chosen over the course of the next week, Brady told reporters, suggesting the party membership could have a role in the election. The 1922 executive and the Conservative party board will meet at 4pm to decide how the election will proceed – but it could include requiring candidates to meet a high threshold of MP nominations.

Brady said they hoped a new leader would be in place by 28 October, allowing the scheduled fiscal event to take place on 31 October – just three days after the new prime minister is in place.

Both the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, and the former cabinet minister Michael Gove have ruled themselves out of standing for leader. The former chancellor Rishi Sunak is likely to be a candidate, as is Kemi Badenoch, the international trade secretary. Others who could stand include Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps. There is also the possibility of a return for Boris Johnson.

Opposition parties called for an immediate general election, saying the Conservatives had no mandate to govern.

Keir Starmer said: “After 12 years of Tory failure, the British people deserve so much better than this revolving door of chaos. In the last few years, the Tories have set record-high taxation, trashed our institutions and created a cost a living crisis. Now, they have crashed the economy so badly that people are facing £500 a month extra on their mortgages. The damage they have done will take years to fix.”

The Tories must not respond by again “shuffling the people at the top without the consent of the British people”, the Labour leader added.

The SNP’s Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, said: “It was inevitable Liz Truss would have to go after the damage she’s inflicted – but merely swapping leaders of a broken Tory government is not enough. There must now be a general election – people will accept nothing less.”

Carla Denyer, the co-leader of the Greens, said: “The Tory chaos has spiralled beyond any pretence that the country has a viable government.”

Truss made her then chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, take the blame for September’s mini-budget, despite it being widely seen as a joint project. A panicked market reaction to the £45bn of largely unfunded tax cuts caused the pound to slump and the cost of new government debt to soar.

Truss, facing a mutiny by her MPs as mortgage costs rocketed, sacked Kwarteng but was unable to explain why she should stay on when the tax-cutting measures had been strongly advocated by her as well.

Another humiliation came when Hunt announced the scrapping of almost all the tax cuts and the scaling back of Truss’s flagship scheme to cap energy bills, in an attempt to restore stability.

The final straw for many Tory MPs appeared to be the chaotic scenes on Wednesday, when a vote on a Labour motion over fracking led to mayhem in the voting lobbies, with shouting and jostling. Afterwards, a dozen or more Conservative MPs who rebelled did not even know whether they still had the whip.

To recap, the Tories are intending to have a replacement in place by the 28th. That this is the Northern Ireland assembly deadline is unlikely to be a coincidence.

I admit to being amazed by how quickly she fell. I predicted this to drag on for another month or so. As for how they will do a proper leadership election in such a limited time...well, they mean to do so. Conspiracy theorising about Bojo seems entirely forgivable under the circumstances.

[Eternal_Freedom]

One of the tabloids (if memory serves) had a bet over which would last longer - Liz Truss or the shelf-life of a freshly bought lettuce.

The lettuce has won.

[Bedlam]

It's not clear how they will have a leadership contest in one week and consulate the party membership.

The only thing I can think of is if someone officially runs unopposed, if there's only one candidate is a vote needed?

[Crazedwraith]

It's not clear how they will have a leadership contest in one week and consulate the party membership.

The only thing I can think of is if someone officially runs unopposed, if there's only one candidate is a vote needed?

From the bbc live feed

We now know a bit more about how the new Tory leader -- and prime minister -- will be elected.

Tory MPs have until 2pm on Monday to nominate candidates. They'll need at least 100 nominations from fellow Tory MPs to be in the running.

That means really only three candidates can make the cut.

MPs will get a vote and - if there are more than two still in the mix - Tory members will then get an online vote on the final two.

If only one reaches that threshold then in theory a new leader could just be decided by Monday.

But if not, then that result of a members vote would be wrapped up by 28 October.

No word on what they do if no-one makes that cut. Try again the next day?

[Bedlam]

Anyone want to guess the three?

I'd say Boris, Sunik and Hunt are probably the most likely.

[Crazedwraith]

I think Hunt's already counted himself out. So Boris, Sunak and Mordant if anyone.

I'd love it if no-one got the required 100 though.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The people who want Boris back have extremely short memories, they've clearly forgotten why he left in the first place. If Boris got back in it would destroy any credibility the conservative party had left. The news is saying that regardless of who gets in there's going to be a shitload of unpopular decisions about raising tax and cutting public spending. So any popularity he had left would be quickly extinguished.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 07289.html

Tories fear party split if Boris Johnson returns following dramatic Liz Truss resignation

Breakneck leadership race to produce new PM by 28 October

Andrew Woodcock
Political Editor

I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy notice
Conservative MPs have warned that the party could split if Boris Johnson returns as leader following the dramatic resignation of Liz Truss after just 45 days as prime minister.

After six weeks of turmoil culminating in her sacking her chancellor and home secretary within days of one another, Ms Truss conceded that she could not “deliver the mandate” on which she was elected.

She will hand over to a new prime minister by 28 October – next Friday – with her departure brought forward to Monday if Tory MPs are able to unite behind a single candidate for leader and avoid the need for a ballot of party members.

Close allies of former chancellor Rishi Sunak told The Independent that he will be on the ballot paper, after missing out to Ms Truss in a vote of around 170,000 members over the summer.

Others expected to join him include leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt and former home secretary Suella Braverman, with speculation also revolving around possible bids by trade secretary Kemi Badenoch or home secretary Grant Shapps. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, foreign secretary James Cleverly and defence secretary Ben Wallace have indicated they will not stand.

Hopefuls must clear the high bar of 100 MPs’ nominations by Monday, meaning no more than three candidates can enter the race, with Tory MPs whittling the number down to two in a vote that day before the final choice goes to members in an online ballot closing on 28 October.

If MPs unite behind a single candidate there will be a “coronation” on Monday. And crucially, there will be an indicative vote by MPs on the final two contenders, so that members have a clear understanding of which candidate commands the support of the parliamentary party.

Ms Truss will remain prime minister until her successor as Conservative leader is chosen.

It was Mr Johnson’s intentions which dominated conversation in the Westminster tearooms, after allies let it be known he was sounding out friends over a return to the leadership.

The former prime minister – who still faces an inquiry into whether he lied to parliament over the Partygate scandal – wants to “finish the job” he started, a key ally said.

The Telegraph quoted a source close to Mr Johnson as saying: “If the Tories are serious about winning in 2024 and want to stop a general election before then they need to revert to the guy with a mandate who is a seasoned campaigner.”

Mr Johnson is expected to fly back on Friday from a Caribbean break and will meet backers for his campaign – led by Jacob Rees-Mogg – on Saturday, the newspaper said.

The prospect of a second Johnson premiership just two months after he gave up the keys to No 10 was cheered by supporters on the Tory benches.

MP Brendan Clarke-Smith said he was “the only person who can dig us out of this mess”, while former culture secretary Nadine Dorries hailed him as “the one person elected by the British public with a manifesto and a mandate until January ’25”.

In a Twitter message to the former premier Conservative MP James Dudderidge said: “I hope you enjoyed your holiday Boris. Time to come back. Few issues at the office that need addressing.”

But veteran backbencher Sir Roger Gale, the first MP to declare he had submitted a letter of no confidence in Johnson, told The Independent: “While he is under investigation for misleading the House, there is no way he should be considered for any government position, never mind prime minister.

“He would be just as divisive as he previously was – we want a unity candidate, not a division candidate.”

Sir Roger said that “quite a few” MPs could be expected to refuse to take the Tory whip if Johnson returned.

And another backbencher said he knew of at least one colleague who would cross the floor to Labour rather than serve under Johnson.

Meanwhile, former cabinet minister David Davis said that “a lot of people would be worried about the party” if the ex-PM returned.

He told The Independent: “We want credibility in the markets. Is he going to give us that? We want the technical capability to fix the health service. Is he going to give us that? We want to draw on talent from across the party. Having appointed a very narrow cabinet, is he going to give us that?”

The hastily rewritten rules for the breakneck leadership battle seemed designed to make a Johnson candidacy difficult, with the 100-nomination requirement far higher than the threshold of 20 which produced a field of eight in July.

Supporters were confident they could secure 60-70 nominations on the argument that only Mr Johnson can save Tory seats in the general election. But many MPs – including a substantial number in the so-called Red Wall seats of the Midlands and North – fear that the former PM remains toxic to constituents.

One former member of Johnson’s inner circle told The Independent: “My instinct is he will only run if he can get to the final two. If I know Boris, the one thing I can say is he hates losing. I think he knows he can’t do it, so he won’t stand.”

Ms Truss’s resignation will make her the shortest-serving prime minister in UK political history, at no more than 53 days – less than half the previous record of 119 days set by George Canning when he died in office.

She informed King Charles III of her intention to go in a phone call on Thursday morning, 45 days after visiting Queen Elizabeth II at Balmoral to be invited to form a government.

It came after a day of chaos on Wednesday, when she sacked Ms Braverman as home secretary, suspended a key aide for alleged negative briefings and then had to beg Wendy Morton to stay on as chief whip following a botched vote on fracking.

Speaking at a lectern in Downing Street after holding talks with Tory grandees, she said that she had come into office “at a time of great economic and international instability” due to the cost of living and Ukraine war.

With her husband Hugh beside her, she said she had “delivered on energy bills and on cutting national insurance (and) set out a vision for a low tax, high growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit”.

But she added: “I recognise though, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party.”

An instant poll by Savanta ComRes found that 84 per cent of voters thought Ms Truss was right to resign and 47 per cent rated her the worst PM of the last 25 years – ahead of 20 per cent naming Mr Johnson and 9 per cent Tony Blair.

Mr Johnson was the favourite successor among Tory voters, with 41 per cent backing him. But Mr Sunak led among voters as a whole, and more than half of those questioned (51 per cent) said it was right for Johnson to step down in the summer.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer issued a demand for an immediate election once a new Tory leader is in place.

“The Conservative Party has shown it no longer has a mandate to govern.,” he said. “After 12 years of Tory failure, the British people deserve so much better than this revolving door of chaos.”

And Tory MPs – at least 16 of whom had called publicly for Truss’s removal – were quick to push forward the claims of their preferred candidates.

Isle of Wight MP Bob Seely hailed Ms Mordaunt as “somebody with stature, with government experience, who can resonate with people”.

Former Cabinet minister Simon Hart said it was “no time for experiments; no time for frivolity – this means choosing someone serious, tested, competent and kind. For me that’s Rishi Sunak.”

Senior backbencher Robert Halfon warned that it was “the last chance for the government”, adding: “Whoever becomes leader must work to win back the trust of the public.”

I suspect the party would indeed split if Bojo won. He might just win the contest, but I don't fancy his chances with the general public. That's a lot of MPs careers at risk.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

And he would have to make a lot of extremely unpopular decisions resulting in a spectacular about-face for all the people who voted for him. Boris Johnson might just be the Trojan horse that destroys the conservative party.

[Zaune]

And he would have to make a lot of extremely unpopular decisions resulting in a spectacular about-face for all the people who voted for him. Boris Johnson might just be the Trojan horse that destroys the conservative party.

Or at least the man to take the credit for it despite most of the actual work having been done by others.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The opposition are smelling blood and making increasingly loud calls for a general election, and it's win-win for them since the Tories will refuse out of self-preservation.

[Crazedwraith]

Boris supposedly has enough backers.

FFS we're getting him back aren't we?

[Eternal_Freedom]

Boris supposedly has enough backers.

FFS we're getting him back aren't we?

I suspect a lot of the Tory MP's are looking at the Truss shitshow and thinking "Better the devil we know, at least he managed to win an election for us."

[EnterpriseSovereign]

All we know for sure is Sunak has the requisite 100+ MPs backing him.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

EDIT: And of course Priti Patel has crawled out from under whatever stone she was hiding under to endorse BoJo's return.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Really? Didn't Boris fire her?

[Crazedwraith]

May fired her. Boris hired again. She resigned at the end of his (first) premiership

[Eternal_Freedom]

May fired her. Boris hired again. She resigned at the end of his (first) premiership

Ahhh. To be honest I lost track of what the fuckers were doing half the time.

[Gandalf]

May fired her. Boris hired again. She resigned at the end of his (first) premiership

Ahhh. To be honest I lost track of what the fuckers were doing half the time.

That's fair. It's quite the farce at this point.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

According to the Guardian,the scores (of MPs to declare publicly) are as follows;

Sunak: 140
Johnson: 57 (1x 'leaning towards)
Mordaunt: 24

So, as we knew, Sunak is well in the game, with 140 out of 365 MPs; or 38%. Johnson and Mordaunt are still trailing, with less than 24 hours to go; and with 144 MPs or 39% undeclared. Still everything to play for, but it isn't looking good for either of them.

Also, Bojo has called upon Mordaunt to back down. Not only did she refuse, but she stated that if she did drop out, she would back Sunak.

[Crazedwraith]

Johnson is not standing! There are two likely (and not incompatible) explanations to my thinking:
a) There have been backroom deals to allow Sunak to stand unopposed tomorrow so the crazy party members don't get a say.
b) Johnson's took one look at the mess and decided to let someone else do the hard unpopular work of trying to fix it and go the same way Truss did before he gets to swoop in later and take the credit.

eta: Oh jesus, he's talking about being 'well placed' to deliver election victory in 2024. That's looking very like option 2.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Johnson is not standing! There are two likely (and not incompatible) explanations to my thinking:
a) There have been backroom deals to allow Sunak to stand unopposed tomorrow so the crazy party members don't get a say.
b) Johnson's took one look at the mess and decided to let someone else do the hard unpopular work of trying to fix it and go the same way Truss did before he gets to swoop in later and take the credit.

eta: Oh jesus, he's talking about being 'well placed' to deliver election victory in 2024. That's looking very like option 2.

The way Labour collapsed at the last election will be nothing compared to how the Conservatives will implode at the next one regardless of who is in charge.

Regardless, thank FUCK he's not standing.