UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Broomstick]

I am wondering how Russia got it fixed so fast. The repair to the rail line should have taken months, but was back up and running within a couple weeks. Now, a few days after being hit, they're allowing cars to use one lane of the bridge to cross. They couldn't have had time to inspect the support pylon or make repairs on it.

You already know - they don't bother to inspect the support pylons or to repair anything other than the minimum needed.

[LadyTevar]

I am wondering how Russia got it fixed so fast. The repair to the rail line should have taken months, but was back up and running within a couple weeks. Now, a few days after being hit, they're allowing cars to use one lane of the bridge to cross. They couldn't have had time to inspect the support pylon or make repairs on it.

You already know - they don't bother to inspect the support pylons or to repair anything other than the minimum needed.

That's about what I figured.

[LadyTevar]

Thousands evacuated after Crimea ammunition depot bursts into flames

Thousands of civilians have been evacuated after an ammunition depot in Russian-annexed Crimea went up in flames, setting off a series of explosions.

Blasts were still being heard several hours after the fire was reported at the Kirovske military base on Wednesday morning, Russian media reported.

Authorities did not specify the cause of the blaze, but footage showed columns of black smoke billowing into the sky.

The incident came just days after an explosion on the Kerch bridge linking the Black Sea peninsula to mainland Russia, which the Kremlin has blamed on Ukraine.

Local authorities said more than two thousand people were evacuated from villages surrounding the depot. They were reportedly provided with temporary shelter.

Sections of the Tavrida highway, which connects Sevastopol to the Crimean port of Kerch, were closed, with vehicles redirected through regional roads.

Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-backed head of Crimea, said: “In the Kirovske district, it is planned to temporarily evacuate residents of four settlements – this is more than two thousand people.

“An operational headquarters has been deployed, all specialised services are working on the spot.”

Vladimir Konstantinov, head of Crimea’s state council, appeared to suggest Ukraine was behind the attacks.

“The situation is dynamic. For the moment, everything is under control,” Mr Konstantinov said in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

“Kyiv is doing everything to shake up the situation inside Crimea. But they cannot understand that it all works in the opposite direction. Since 2014, we have been withstanding their provocations,” he added.

“Explosions at the training ground are still heard [at 12:45 local time]… In Crimea, there is experience in dealing with such situations.”

Early reports suggested Kylylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, had taken credit for the fire and hailed a “successful operation”.

However, this was later denied by the defence ministry and attributed to a fake post on Telegram.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 in a move not recognised by the international community.

Kyiv has repeatedly said it plans to take back the peninsula as part of its drive to expel Russian troops from its territory.

Separately on Wednesday, Ukraine accused Russia of having intentionally struck grain terminals and infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa for a second consecutive night after Moscow quit a deal that allowed the safe export of Ukrainian grain to global markets.

“Russian terrorists absolutely deliberately targeted the infrastructure of the grain deal,” said Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, following Tuesday’s overnight attacks.

“Every Russian missile – is a strike not only on Ukraine but on everyone in the world who wants a normal and safe life.”

The Black Sea grain deal, agreed in July last year, was intended to combat a global food crisis worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a blockade of Ukrainian ports.

Mr Zelensky has said the agreement could continue without Russian participation, and that Ukraine is working on options to keep its commitments on food supplies.

Russia announced on Monday that it was quitting the deal, complaining that promises to free up its own shipments of food and fertilisers had not been kept.

The "Russian backed Head" of Crimea needs to hurry home to Russia before the bridge out falls completely.

But the real bad story is Russia backing out of the Grain Deal. That's going to hurt several countries that depend on imports of Ukrainian wheat.

[Broomstick]

Russia bombing a port and destroying about 60,000 tons of grain today probably hurt even more.

[bilateralrope]

I am wondering how Russia got it fixed so fast. The repair to the rail line should have taken months, but was back up and running within a couple weeks. Now, a few days after being hit, they're allowing cars to use one lane of the bridge to cross. They couldn't have had time to inspect the support pylon or make repairs on it.

You already know - they don't bother to inspect the support pylons or to repair anything other than the minimum needed.

With how important that bridge is for Russian logistics, getting the bridge reopened quickly might have been the smarter short term move. Hoping that the bridge stays open long enough for them to get enough stuff over it that they can afford to close it for as long as repairs take.

Of course, that means that Ukraine will keep hitting the bridge every time they can. The damage will add up.

[LaCroix]

Rumor has it that this grain was earmarked for China - Poo will be hopping mad with Vlad for that...

[LadyTevar]

And now Russia will be regarding all ships headed towards Ukrainian Ports as Military Targets.

Wheat Prices Soar as Russia threatens ships

[LaCroix]

Aaand it seems that the Chinese consulate in Odessa was damaged by a Russian missile...

Btw, Russia is offering to continue the grain deal, in return for removing all of these pesky sanctions, which do not work, anyway...

[Broomstick]

I do believe cruelty is the point.

[LaCroix]

Ukraine has announced tit for tat - they might start seeing all ships heading towards Russian ports as military targets, too...
That announcment would make sense, since first, Russian bound traffic is a lot more thatn ukraine bound traffic, and second, most of this most likely IS military stuff being imported.

Russia appears shook that someone would use an Uno reverse on them, as always.

[LadyTevar]

Aaand it seems that the Chinese consulate in Odessa was damaged by a Russian missile...

Btw, Russia is offering to continue the grain deal, in return for removing all of these pesky sanctions, which do not work, anyway...

Thankfully no Chinese Nationals were at the consulate since the Invasion began.
I've heard that 60million tons of grain that was blown up in Odessa was for China as well.

I'm thinking Beijing is on the phone with Putin, having a chat about his military's bad aim.

[Ralin]

I'm thinking Beijing is on the phone with Putin, having a chat about his military's bad aim.

Yeah they definitely didn't take it well when the US bombed one of their embassies in the 90s

[Lord Revan]

In regards to attacks on Chinese targets I suspect it could also be an attempt at intimidating China in siding fully with Russia (kind of like what they tried with Finland and Sweden to prevent them from joining NATO and we know how well that worked out).

Yeah I suspect Putin (or who ever answer the phone for him) is hearing a lot colorful Chinese expressions they'll have to look up from dictionary later as I don't see the Chinese government getting intimidated by this, as that would give the impression they're weak and humiliated something even if China was a democracy the Chinese leaders don't want to be seen for cultural reasons (as that would a serious loss of face).

[LadyTevar]

In regards to attacks on Chinese targets I suspect it could also be an attempt at intimidating China in siding fully with Russia (kind of like what they tried with Finland and Sweden to prevent them from joining NATO and we know how well that worked out).

Yeah I suspect Putin (or who ever answer the phone for him) is hearing a lot colorful Chinese expressions they'll have to look up from dictionary later as I don't see the Chinese government getting intimidated by this, as that would give the impression they're weak and humiliated something even if China was a democracy the Chinese leaders don't want to be seen for cultural reasons (as that would a serious loss of face).

Right now, China is not playing by the Sanctions NATO has in place.

Give them a reason to, and they will

[Broomstick]

And now Russia will be regarding all ships headed towards Ukrainian Ports as Military Targets.

Wheat Prices Soar as Russia threatens ships

The darker and less civilized part of me, the part more driven by emotion than reason, wants to call their bluff. Send ships flying US flags to Ukraine to pick up and transport the grain. It's not like it's secret which side we're on.

My more rational side has problems with putting lives needless at risk, potential escalations, and assumes other people will tell me more reasons why that notion is a bad idea.

[LadyTevar]

And now Russia will be regarding all ships headed towards Ukrainian Ports as Military Targets.

Wheat Prices Soar as Russia threatens ships

The darker and less civilized part of me, the part more driven by emotion than reason, wants to call their bluff. Send ships flying US flags to Ukraine to pick up and transport the grain. It's not like it's secret which side we're on.

My more rational side has problems with putting lives needless at risk, potential escalations, and assumes other people will tell me more reasons why that notion is a bad idea.

It is a BAD IDEA. It is a VERY BAD IDEA, whether with US Flags or any other NATO Country.

But... it'd make the Russian ships think twice.

[Batman]

I'm not sure it that bad an idea. It might make Putin realize that he's up against all of NATO, and if he engages, Russia ENDS as national player.

[Lord Revan]

The problem there is what else it might end.

[Batman]

Im, german, okay? I might not be as immediately close to the action as you are, but I AM close enough to be aware that if this goes further south , it's going to seriously suck. What I'm trying to say is that unless we make Putin see it's going to suck for Russia a lot MORE than it does for Western Europe he's not going to stop.

[Ralin]

Im, german, okay? I might not be as immediately close to the action as you are, but I AM close enough to be aware that if this goes further south , it's going to seriously suck. What I'm trying to say is that unless we make Putin see it's going to suck for Russia a lot MORE than it does for Western Europe he's not going to stop.

Yeaaah, and I agree with that, but that runs squarely into the problem of Putin having a distorted understanding of 1) the capabilities and 2) the intentions of everyone involved, including Russia.

Also I think it's been established by now that Putin already thinks he's up against all of NATO and that Ukraine was/is a US client state with no real volition of its own

[madd0c0t0r2]

And now Russia will be regarding all ships headed towards Ukrainian Ports as Military Targets.

Wheat Prices Soar as Russia threatens ships

The darker and less civilized part of me, the part more driven by emotion than reason, wants to call their bluff. Send ships flying US flags to Ukraine to pick up and transport the grain. It's not like it's secret which side we're on.

My more rational side has problems with putting lives needless at risk, potential escalations, and assumes other people will tell me more reasons why that notion is a bad idea.

It's not a bad idea for me. Don't use warships and it's a nice piece of controlled brinkmanship, but one that doesn't weaken Russia militarily, does good for the rest of the world (which is useful in the UN), and does make Putin look weak at home (which is where the brinkmanship comes in)

[LadyTevar]

Also I think it's been established by now that Putin already thinks he's up against all of NATO and that Ukraine was/is a US client state with no real volition of its own

THIS.
THIS is probably the god-damned truth in his mind, and why he's so damned obstinate about going through with the 'special operation'.

It's not a bad idea for me. Don't use warships and it's a nice piece of controlled brinkmanship, but one that doesn't weaken Russia militarily, does good for the rest of the world (which is useful in the UN), and does make Putin look weak at home (which is where the brinkmanship comes in)

IIRC, there is also some Naval Law about what flag a commercial ship is able to fly?
Some of them fly completely different flags from where they're from/owned by/etc , for tax purposes, or something like that? There was something several years back about 'false flag' on commercial ships that my brain half-dug up out of my memory, but won't give me the full info.

[Ralin]

More to the point, the crews and insurance companies would likely object. And just in general the past year or so hasn't born out the belief that it's a good idea to assume the Russian government won't do something because it's stupid or self-destructive.

[fnord]

Tev, are you talking about flags of convenience? - where a ship might have owners in country A, crewed mainly by nationals of country B, and be on the merchant registry of country C?

[Solauren]

Tev, are you talking about flags of convenience? - where a ship might have owners in country A, crewed mainly by nationals of country B, and be on the merchant registry of country C?

I thought most ships were on the merchant registries for the countries they most often visited, and often flew multiple flags to show country of origin, ownership, and current 'out of'.

i.e US Made, so bottom flag, Canadian Ownership, so that's the middle flag, currently sailing out of France, so that's the top flag.