UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Lord Revan]

I wonder if Prigozhin will let himself be captured by Ukraine to avoid falling out a window.

Not sure he wants to hang around Ukrainians either even if Ukrainians do want him to hang.

[Broomstick]

He should have sided with Ukraine - at least his men would have food, ammo, and medical care. Sucks to pick the wrong side.

[wautd]

I still find it weird that assassinating an enemy country's president or other high-level politicians during an actual war is somehow considered an outrage or crossing a line.

It's laughable to call it an assassination attempt to begin with. It's not like Putin lives in the Kremlin or works there in the middle of the night

[wautd]

I wonder if Prigozhin will let himself be captured by Ukraine to avoid falling out a window.

The guy has become a billionaire and runs a global criminal empire. I'm sure he has other escape plans if push comes to shove

[Ralin]

I still find it weird that assassinating an enemy country's president or other high-level politicians during an actual war is somehow considered an outrage or crossing a line.

It's laughable to call it an assassination attempt to begin with. It's not like Putin lives in the Kremlin or works there in the middle of the night

Or was likely to be sleeping on the roof.

[Lord Revan]

I still find it weird that assassinating an enemy country's president or other high-level politicians during an actual war is somehow considered an outrage or crossing a line.

It's laughable to call it an assassination attempt to begin with. It's not like Putin lives in the Kremlin or works there in the middle of the night

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Putin hasn't set foot in the Kremlin since the COVID pandemic started. He's most likely at secure location with all the times he's said to be in the Kremlin faked via studio sets.

[LadyTevar]

Wagner Promised More Ammo, Will Stay in Bahkmut
As of Sunday, Prigozhin's claiming Moscow bowed to his threat and has "Promised more ammo". He's also saying his troops have been given permission to "act as they see fit" in Bakhmut.

In other news, Russia Evacuates Towns Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

Russia has sparked a "mad panic" as it evacuates a town near the contested Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, a Ukrainian official says.

Russia has told people to leave 18 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, including Enerhodar near the plant, ahead of Kyiv's anticipated offensive.

The Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said there were five-hour waits as thousands of cars left.

Rafael Grossi - the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the evacuation of residents near the nuclear plant indicated the possibility of heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces around the plant.
Earlier, the IAEA warned in a statement that situation at the Zaporizhzhia plant was "becoming increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous".

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Ukraine downs Russian hypersonic missile with US Patriot

YIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine's air force claimed Saturday to have downed a Russian hypersonic missile over Kyiv using newly acquired American Patriot defense systems, the first known time the country has been able to intercept one of Moscow's most modern missiles.

Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk said in a Telegram post that the Kinzhal-type ballistic missile had been intercepted in an overnight attack on the Ukrainian capital earlier in the week. It was also the first time Ukraine is known to have used the Patriot defense systems.

“Yes, we shot down the ‘unique’ Kinzhal,” Oleshchuk wrote. “It happened during the night-time attack on May 4 in the skies of the Kyiv region.”

Oleshchuk said the Kh-47 missile was launched by a MiG-31K aircraft from Russian territory and was shot down with a Patriot missile.

The Kinzhal is one of the latest and most advanced Russian weapons. The Russian military says the air-launched ballistic missile has a range of up to 2,000 kilometers (about 1,250 miles) and flies at 10 times the speed of sound, making it hard to intercept.

A combination of hypersonic speed and a heavy warhead allows the Kinzhal to destroy heavily fortified targets, like underground bunkers or mountain tunnels.

The Ukrainian military has previously admitted lacking assets to intercept the Kinzhals.

“They were saying that the Patriot is an outdated American weapon, and Russian weapons are the best in the world," Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said on Ukraine's Channel 24 television. "Well, there is confirmation that it effectively works against even a super-hypersonic missile.” Ihnat said.

He said successfully intercepting the Kinzhal was “a slap in the face for Russia.”

Ukraine took its first delivery of the Patriot missiles in late April. It has not specified how many of the systems it has or where they have been deployed, but they are known to have been provided by the United States, Germany and the Netherlands.

Germany and the U.S. have acknowledged each sending at least one battery and the Netherlands has said it has provided two launchers, although it is not clear how many are currently in operation.

Ukrainian troops have received the extensive training needed to be able to effectively locate a target with the systems, lock on with radar, and fire. Each battery requires up to 90 personnel to operate and maintain.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said he first asked for Patriot systems when visiting the U.S. in August 2021, months before Russia’s full-scale invasion but seven years after Russia illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

He has described possessing the system as “a dream” but said he was told in the U.S. at the time that it was impossible.

The Patriot was first deployed by the U.S. in the 1980s. The system costs approximately $4 million per missile, and the launchers cost about $10 million each, according to analysts.

At such a cost, it was widely thought that Ukraine would only use the Patriots against Russian aircraft or hypersonic missiles.

In a Telegram post on Saturday, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said he had thanked U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for the ongoing American aid to Ukraine.

Zaluzhnyi said he also briefed Milley “about the situation at the front and preparations” for Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia.

Ukraine has not said when it might launch the counteroffensive, but it is widely anticipated this spring.

In an interview this week with Foreign Affairs magazine, Milley said he would not speculate on if or when it might come, but that with NATO assistance to help train and equip nine brigades' worth of combined arms, armor and mechanized infantry, “the Ukrainians right now have the capability to attack.”

He also said that their capability to defend was “significantly enhanced from what they were just a year ago.”

“I don’t want to suggest that they may or may not conduct an offensive operation in the coming weeks,” he said. “That’ll be up to them. They’ve got a significant amount of planning and coordination and all of that to do, if they were to do an offensive operation. But they’re prepared to do offense or defense.”

In other developments, officials in both Russia and Ukraine said they had carried out another of their regular exchanges of prisoners of war.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it brought three military pilots back to Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said 45 fighters who defended the Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol had been returned to Ukraine.

Also on Saturday, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces accused Russia of using phosphorus munitions in its attempt to wrest control of the eastern city of Bakhmut from Ukrainian forces.

Russian troops have been trying to take the city for more than nine months, but Ukrainian forces are still clinging to positions on the western outskirts.

On Saturday, the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper quoted military officials as saying that “the enemy used phosphorus and incendiary ammunition in Bakhmut in an attempt to wipe the city off the face of the earth.”

A photo accompanying the newspaper report showed an urban area lit up with fire in multiple places.

The allegations could not be independently verified.

Russian forces have not commented on the claim but have rejected previous accusations from Ukraine that they had used phosphorus.

International law prohibits the use of white phosphorus or other incendiary weapons — munitions designed to set fire to objects or cause burn injuries — in areas where there could be concentrations of civilians.

White phosphorous can also be used for illumination or to create smoke screens.

[Mr Bean]

The Russian Defense ministry just issued an angry denial that the front line has been broken in several points in Ukraine while the Ukrainian Defense ministry is "not talking about active operations"

Translation, good news from the front

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The Russian Defense ministry just issued an angry denial that the front line has been broken in several points in Ukraine while the Ukrainian Defense ministry is "not talking about active operations"

Translation, good news from the front

There's more.

At the point we're just ignoring whatever bullshit threats Putin issues whenever something happens that he doesn't like

[LadyTevar]

The Russian Defense ministry just issued an angry denial that the front line has been broken in several points in Ukraine while the Ukrainian Defense ministry is "not talking about active operations"

Translation, good news from the front

Very good news
Ukraine claims gains in Bakhmut
Only about 2km, but it's an advance.

[Mange]

The Russian Defense ministry just issued an angry denial that the front line has been broken in several points in Ukraine while the Ukrainian Defense ministry is "not talking about active operations"

Translation, good news from the front

Very good news
Ukraine claims gains in Bakhmut
Only about 2km, but it's an advance.

It's very good news. 2km may not sound much, but it's a reversal of one month of Russian advance in little more than a day.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The Russian Defense ministry just issued an angry denial that the front line has been broken in several points in Ukraine while the Ukrainian Defense ministry is "not talking about active operations"

Translation, good news from the front

Very good news
Ukraine claims gains in Bakhmut
Only about 2km, but it's an advance.

It's very good news. 2km may not sound much, but it's a reversal of one month of Russian advance in little more than a day.

And in the context of a city, 2km is a LOT of real estate

[madd0c0t0r2]

Lots of back and forth over wether the widescale counteroffensive is a matter of hours away: https://manifold.markets/eclair4151/wil ... aunch-a-la

Fairly clear that the UK provided missiles will be hitting the Kerch Strait bridge at inopportune times

[Lord Revan]

If that 2 km is a roughly uniform push back of the front by that amount then it could be a lot estate indeed. That's assuming this isn't a trap set up by the Russian to have Ukrainians overextend then get caught of and destroyed.

[LadyTevar]

Very good news
Ukraine claims gains in Bakhmut
Only about 2km, but it's an advance.

It's very good news. 2km may not sound much, but it's a reversal of one month of Russian advance in little more than a day.

And in the context of a city, 2km is a LOT of real estate

This is a very good point.

I don't think it's a Russian Trap as Lord Revan suggests either. I believe this is a genuine "Wagner can't hold the territory" problem.

[Lord Revan]

Oh I don't think it's trap either but that tactic is as old as time so it's not something you'd want to dismiss either.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It's very good news. 2km may not sound much, but it's a reversal of one month of Russian advance in little more than a day.

And in the context of a city, 2km is a LOT of real estate

This is a very good point.

I don't think it's a Russian Trap as Lord Revan suggests either. I believe this is a genuine "Wagner can't hold the territory" problem.

All the indications are that the Ukrainians know what they're doing, by making any Russians gains come at a great enough cost that they're sufficiently weakened that they become vulnerable to a counterattack, it was only a matter of time.

[Mange]

It's very good news. 2km may not sound much, but it's a reversal of one month of Russian advance in little more than a day.

And in the context of a city, 2km is a LOT of real estate

This is a very good point.

I don't think it's a Russian Trap as Lord Revan suggests either. I believe this is a genuine "Wagner can't hold the territory" problem.

Oh, it's not a trap just like Kharkiv and Kherson weren't. The Russians have transferred shitty units to the Bakhmut front, like the 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade which was formed last autumn and which ran away as soon as the Ukrainian artillery opened fire. The rivalry between Wagner and the Russian MOD doesn't help either and Prigozhin (who you can't trust a word he's saying) claimed in a new video yesterday evening that Wagner has started to shoot retreating regular Russian soldiers.

[Highlord Laan]

The UK has given Ukraine Storm Shadow.

Time to drop the Kerch.

[Crazedwraith]

The UK has given Ukraine Storm Shadow.

Does this mean Russia gets Snake Eyes?

[LadyTevar]

Oh, it's not a trap just like Kharkiv and Kherson weren't. The Russians have transferred shitty units to the Bakhmut front, like the 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade which was formed last autumn and which ran away as soon as the Ukrainian artillery opened fire. The rivalry between Wagner and the Russian MOD doesn't help either and Prigozhin (who you can't trust a word he's saying) claimed in a new video yesterday evening that Wagner has started to shoot retreating regular Russian soldiers.

TBH, I don't think Pigozhin was joking about shooting Russian soldiers. He's videotaped killing deserters from Wagner, what's going to stop him from killing anyone he sees as a Deserter?

[Mange]

Oh, it's not a trap just like Kharkiv and Kherson weren't. The Russians have transferred shitty units to the Bakhmut front, like the 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade which was formed last autumn and which ran away as soon as the Ukrainian artillery opened fire. The rivalry between Wagner and the Russian MOD doesn't help either and Prigozhin (who you can't trust a word he's saying) claimed in a new video yesterday evening that Wagner has started to shoot retreating regular Russian soldiers.

TBH, I don't think Pigozhin was joking about shooting Russian soldiers. He's videotaped killing deserters from Wagner, what's going to stop him from killing anyone he sees as a Deserter?

Oh, I can believe that.

[Highlord Laan]

The UK has given Ukraine Storm Shadow.

Does this mean Russia gets Snake Eyes?

It's a cruise missile, you twit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

[Crazedwraith]

The UK has given Ukraine Storm Shadow.

Does this mean Russia gets Snake Eyes?

It's a cruise missile, you twit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

I know what it is. I was making this thing called "a joke".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joke