Where do the EU and the UK go now?

[SAMAS]

Cameron has said that he's not the chap to do the deals on exiting, leaving it to his successor. That could take three months to get sorted. And then.... a General Election will probably take place to ensure whoever that is has a mandate to negotiate.

It'll all be over by Christmas......

The last time someone in Britain said that, it didn't go so well.

[Crazedwraith]

Cameron has said that he's not the chap to do the deals on exiting, leaving it to his successor. That could take three months to get sorted. And then.... a General Election will probably take place to ensure whoever that is has a mandate to negotiate.

It'll all be over by Christmas......

The last time someone in Britain said that, it didn't go so well.

Yes, Indeed

Merkel's put her foot down today. No talks until we fire Article 50 and no cherry picking the EU.

[Simon_Jester]

I can kind of understand "no talks until Britain activates Article 50." If the government IS going to make a decision about whether to ignore the referendum, it shouldn't be making that decision based on whether it can negotiate an appealing offer from the EU.

[Crazedwraith]

Both points seem eminently reasonable to me.

[Sea Skimmer]

Its going to be awesome when this really does take until 2020 to settle. I rather understand the Euro viewpoint on negotiations, however that tune may change if article 50 still isn't triggered six months from now and Italy is bailing out its banks with illegal billions.

[K. A. Pital]

Its going to be awesome when this really does take until 2020 to settle. I rather understand the Euro viewpoint on negotiations, however that tune may change if article 50 still isn't triggered six months from now and Italy is bailing out its banks with illegal billions.

Why should it change? What would informal talks achieve except making the EU look like a joke?

[Eternal_Freedom]

Its going to be awesome when this really does take until 2020 to settle. I rather understand the Euro viewpoint on negotiations, however that tune may change if article 50 still isn't triggered six months from now and Italy is bailing out its banks with illegal billions.

Could you expand on that last part about Italy? I'm not sure what you're referring to.

[Crown]

Its going to be awesome when this really does take until 2020 to settle. I rather understand the Euro viewpoint on negotiations, however that tune may change if article 50 still isn't triggered six months from now and Italy is bailing out its banks with illegal billions.

Could you expand on that last part about Italy? I'm not sure what you're referring to.

Their banks are insolvent. They need a €40 billion bailout. Their pensioners are about to get fleeced since Eurozone rules technically forbid bailouts that the Italian Government wants to do.

[Dartzap]

Looks like Sturgeon was polity told told 'No' today by France and Spain about getting member status quickly if they did go independent. I genuinely don't think there will much enthusiasm for another indi referendum in such a climate .As long as we keep buying steaks, whiskey and oil, they should be fine for now.

Who'd want the Euro anyway?

[Sea Skimmer]

Why should it change? What would informal talks achieve except making the EU look like a joke?

Well to a lot of people the EU already looks like a joke. So I'm not sure that's too important, certainly the leadership response has not been inspiring. Though I suppose that goes with how poorly the British political leadership was too.

The number one reason for it to change would simply be after enough time, to get the ball rolling and get information flowing to the economy on what to expect. Right now that isn't important, but in the long term it is and were already talking about a minimal 2 year timescale. As it is it looks like it will be October or something before anything useful happens which isn't too bad. I'd hope whoever takes over will invoke it at once, but god only knows.

Anyway should it not? Unprecedented situation, and it violates no law or rule, unlike some of the fiscal behavior Eurozone members constantly engage in, or the special opt out concessions that were offered to the British earlier. The EU already wrote specific national exceptions into its treaties a couple times in its rush to ever closer union, so the sanctity of anything here is not high. I don't know on you, but I for one can remember things that happened before the Maastricht treaty was signed. The EU can go play hardball, but since they already lost on the issues so to speak, I'm not sure more warnings of economic doom from excessively long negotiations are going to accomplish anything.

[cosmicalstorm]

So the schadenfreude expressed by the pro-EU camp revolving around Scotland joining the EU right away was a bit hurried:

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy opposes EU talks with Scotland

'If the UK leaves, Scotland goes too'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 09176.html

Could the UK remain in the EU in most ways if it got an exemption from having to accept many migrants?

Immigration fears caused Brexit vote, David Cameron tells Brussels

By Press Association

Published: 23:04 GMT, 28 June 2016 | Updated: 23:04 GMT, 28 June 2016

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/art ... -vote.html
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Old Junker drunk and slapping other old guys around:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

I've not seen this much confusion in a long time, add another couple of Bataclans, continued Euro-disaster and some more right wing parties winning the elections around Europe and I have to say the EU project looks like a house of cards.

[Thanas]

I've not seen this much confusion in a long time, add another couple of Bataclans, continued Euro-disaster and some more right wing parties winning the elections around Europe and I have to say the EU project looks like a house of cards.

Ah cosmical ali, just when I needed a mentally challenged take on current events you show up.

[Dartzap]

The Greater Toad Daemon, Michael Gove has announced he is running for Tory leader/pm. Me thinks the wheels may be falling off the BoJo express.

[Simon_Jester]

On the subject of "where do things go now, I had a thought."

If there were a British national whose life was really about to be thrown into chaos by having to leave a continental European nation for lack of the permits a non-EU citizen needs, and they tried to apply for refugee status, what do people think would happen?

[I don't know anyone in this position, at least not off the top of my head, I'm just curious]

[Zaune]

Refugee status is a bit extreme; if one had a steady job in that country or was attending university there, it'd be easier to apply for a long-term work visa and/or citizenship through the usual channels. How easy that would be depends on the country.

[K. A. Pital]

Refugee status is a bit extreme; if one had a steady job in that country or was attending university there, it'd be easier to apply for a long-term work visa and/or citizenship through the usual channels. How easy that would be depends on the country.

It would also depend on how long you've been living there. Past 5 years, and you shouldn't have trouble in any EU country as 5 years to permanent residence is a EU-wide rule.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The Greater Toad Daemon, Michael Gove has announced he is running for Tory leader/pm. Me thinks the wheels may be falling off the BoJo express.

Boris Johnson unexpectedly announced he was quitting the race for No. 10. It's the only good thing to happen as a result of the referendum so far.

[Zaune]

Here's a fascinating number: Apparently 66% of Leave voters are prepared to leave the single market if it means less immigration. I can't find the primary source; it appears to be buried in a PDF on Ipsos MORI's website.

At this point it looks like the only group who might yet save the English public from itself are the financial sector, assuming they don't just say "Fuck it" and relocate to Frankfurt or Edinburgh.

[Dartzap]

Considering Deutsch Bank are in trouble, and the Italians are in melt down... London May still seem a safer bet.

[K. A. Pital]

Deutsche is only a private bank and doesn't mean much. The ECB headquarters are in Frankfurt. As will soon be the European Banking Authority.

[Starglider]

At this point it looks like the only group who might yet save the English public from itself are the financial sector, assuming they don't just say "Fuck it" and relocate to Frankfurt or Edinburgh.

The City actually has a backup plan for complete EU exit, which is to give the government two options;
1) Entire banking industy relocates to Paris*.
2) Total deregulation to a point that makes the Cayman Islands look like a paragon of oversight and transparency by comparison.

* Edinburugh, really? Edinburugh doesn't exist outside of golfing vacations and maybe the occasional summit (more than can be said of Birmingham, which only exists in documentaries about deindustrialisation). The only real cities are New York, London, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Zurich, San Francisco and perhaps if you are feeling generous LA and Frankfurt. You might think Dubai counted but that is actually a city-sized theme park.

[Zaune]

The City actually has a backup plan for complete EU exit, which is to give the government two options;
1) Entire banking industy relocates to Paris*.
2) Total deregulation to a point that makes the Cayman Islands look like a paragon of oversight and transparency by comparison.

Bugger.

* Edinburugh, really? Edinburugh doesn't exist outside of golfing vacations and maybe the occasional summit (more than can be said of Birmingham, which only exists in documentaries about deindustrialisation).

This, right here, is why I have given serious thought to forming a Midlands Nationalist Party.

[Simon_Jester]

At this point it looks like the only group who might yet save the English public from itself are the financial sector, assuming they don't just say "Fuck it" and relocate to Frankfurt or Edinburgh.

The City actually has a backup plan for complete EU exit, which is to give the government two options;
1) Entire banking industy relocates to Paris*.
2) Total deregulation to a point that makes the Cayman Islands look like a paragon of oversight and transparency by comparison.

I can imagine (2) backfiring if the EU decides it doesn't want all its banking and finance done in a huge tax haven right off its shores.

I'm not saying this is an inevitable outcome, but it does seem a possible one.

[Starglider]

I can imagine (2) backfiring if the EU decides it doesn't want all its banking and finance done in a huge tax haven right off its shores. I'm not saying this is an inevitable outcome, but it does seem a possible one.

This is assuming the UK has already left the single market. Are you imagining that the EU is going to enact specific sanctions on the UK, that it does not apply to the US, Caymans etc? Remember that the EU already allows a substantial part of its banking to occur in a non-EU country with a different and generally more permissive regulatory regieme: Switzerland.

[K. A. Pital]

Switzerland has (still - but will soon lose) the bilateral agreements.

The UK has no agreements, and needs to renegotiate from scratch.

Big difference.