Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

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Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-02-27 04:01am

India says they preemptively struck a terrorist camp in Kashmir, and sought to avoid any civilian casualties. Pakistan says their airspace was violated, and that they shot down two Indian planes. Pakistan also claims it has conducted retaliatory strikes against India.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/27/india/in ... index.html
New Delhi, India (CNN)The government of Pakistan said its air force shot down two Indian aircraft inside Pakistani airspace on Wednesday after the Indian Air Force crossed the line of control -- the de facto border between the two countries in disputed Kashmir.
The alleged incident comes a day after Indian jets launched airstrikes in Pakistan territory in the first such incursion since the 1970s, and if confirmed, would mark a major escalation of hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Maj. Gen. Asif Ghafoor, spokesperson for the Pakistan armed forces, said in a tweet Wednesday that one Indian aircraft fell inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir, while another fell within the Indian-administered region of Kashmir. One pilot had been arrested, he said.
A post from the official Twitter account of the Pakistan government confirmed that its air force had shot down the two planes, following strikes conducted by Pakistan.



There has not been official comment from the Indian Air Force or government, and CNN could not independently verify Pakistan's claims.

Meanwhile, a statement from the Pakistan Foreign Ministry said that Islamabad carried out aerial strikes on "nonmilitary targets" across the line of control (LoC) from within Pakistani airspace, while accusing India of "carrying out acts of terror in Pakistan."
Pakistan said its strike was "not a retaliation" to the Indian operation and stressed that "Pakistan has therefore, taken strikes at nonmilitary target, avoiding human loss and collateral damage."
"Sole purpose being to demonstrate our right, will and capability for self defense. We have no intention of escalation, but are fully prepared to do so if forced into that paradigm. That is why we undertook the action with clear warning and in broad daylight," the statement said.
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan had previously promised retaliation "at the time and place of Pakistan's choosing" and directed the country's armed forces to remain prepared for all eventualities in response to the Indian strikes.
Flights to several Indian airports were suspended Wednesday, according to multiple Indian airlines on Twitter.
In separate tweets, Jet Airways, Vistara, Indigo and GoAir airlines announced the suspension of flights to airports at Amritsar, Chandigarh, Srinagar, Jammu & Leh.
'Further escalation'
Earlier on Wednesday, Indian Foreign Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said the country does not want "further escalation" with Pakistan.
Speaking at a foreign ministers meeting between Russia, India, and China in Wuzhen, China, on Wednesday, Swaraj said Tuesday's strike was "not a military operation" but "a preemptive strike against the terrorist infrastructure of Jaish-e-Mohammed."

India blames the militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) for a suicide car bomb attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers on February 14.
India had previously said that Pakistan had a "direct hand" in the attack -- the deadliest on security forces since the beginning of the insurgency in the late 1980s. Pakistan has vehemently denied having a role in the incident.
Swaraj said that Tuesday's pre-dawn operation was launched because of the "continuing refusal of Pakistan to acknowledge and act against terror groups on its territory."
The military action was based on "credible information" that militants were planning other attacks in various parts of the country, Swaraj said.
In its Foreign Ministry statement Wednesday, Pakistan said that "India has been trying to establish what they call 'a new normal' a thinly veiled term for doing acts of aggression at whatever pretext they wish on a given day. If India is striking at so called terrorist backers without a shred of evidence, we also retain reciprocal rights to retaliate against elements that enjoy Indian patronage while carrying out acts of terror in Pakistan."
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke with his counterparts in India and Pakistan and urged both sides to "exercise restraint, and avoid escalation at any cost."
"I also encouraged both ministers to prioritize direct communication and avoid further military activity," he said Wednesday, in the first statement by the US government over the incident.
Reaction amid escalating tensions


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Tensions between the two sides have escalated sharply since India's airstrike Tuesday.
At an election rally a few hours after Tuesday's airstrikes, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not refer to the attack directly, but spoke about protecting India. "I want to assure my countrymen that the country is in safe hands," he said.
President of Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Amit Shah praised the "bravery and valor of our armed forces," in a Twitter post.
"Today's strong action shows the will and resolve of a New India. Our New India will not spare any acts of terror and their perpetrators and patrons," he tweeted.
The Indian government had been weighing up how to respond to February's attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, conducting raids over the past two weeks to weed out militants hiding in the region.
Skirmishes along the LoC have escalated since the Indian airstrikes. On Tuesday, Pakistan troops opened fire at 15 places across the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir, injuring five Indian soldiers, army spokesperson Devender Anand told CNN.


Why being seen as tough on Pakistan helps India's Modi
Harsh V Pant, a professor in international relations at King's College London, told CNN that for the past few decades the Indian government had chosen not to retaliate after terror attacks in Kashmir.
But India is now at a point where it is choosing to escalate the situation, adding that India's military action follows public anger over the attack.
China, which shares a border with both countries, called on Pakistan and India to "exercise restraint" after news of the airstrikes broke.
"Both India and Pakistan are important countries in South Asia," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said during a daily press briefing Tuesday. "We hope that both sides can exercise restraint, and take actions that can contribute to the region's stability and improve their mutual relationship, but not the opposite."
Tumultuous history
Kashmir, a largely mountainous region located between India and Pakistan, has had a tumultuous history.
The region has been bitterly contested by both India and Pakistan following the partition of the two countries in 1947, leading to three wars and numerous other skirmishes.


Kashmir attack: Why the timing could drive tensions in South Asia
The February attack came more than two years after armed militants entered an Indian army base in the garrison town of Uri, about 63 miles (102 kilometers) from Srinagar -- killing 18.
India later said it had used ground troops to strike terrorist targets across the LoC in response to the Uri attack, something which Pakistan denied.

Days after February's attack four Indian army personnel were killed in a gunfight with militants in the Pulwama district of Indian-administered Kashmir.
Separatist violence in the region has killed more than 47,000 people since 1989, although this toll doesn't include people who have disappeared due to the conflict. Some human rights groups and nongovernmental organizations put the death toll at twice that amount.
CNN's Nikhil Kumar and Swati Gupta reported from New Delhi, Sophia Saifi reported from Islamabad, Mukhtar Ahmed reported in Srinagar and Helen Regan wrote from Hong Kong.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by K. A. Pital » 2019-02-27 04:34am

But... but... the theory of „democratic peace“. :lol: But Francis Fukuyama!..

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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-02-27 04:50am

K. A. Pital wrote:
2019-02-27 04:34am
But... but... the theory of „democratic peace“. :lol: But Francis Fukuyama!..

*grim laugh*
The day we will have peace is the day when we have a single world government that guarantees everyone a high standard of living.

Edits: Democracy is a wonderful thing, but it is more useful as a mechanism for ensuring stability and the peaceful transfer of power within states, than of ensuring peace between them, in my opinion. Though I suppose one might ask how functional Pakistan in particular really is as a democracy, as well.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by GrosseAdmiralFox » 2019-02-27 06:13am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-02-27 04:50am
The day we will have peace is the day when we have a single world government that guarantees everyone a high standard of living.

Edits: Democracy is a wonderful thing, but it is more useful as a mechanism for ensuring stability and the peaceful transfer of power within states, than of ensuring peace between them, in my opinion. Though I suppose one might ask how functional Pakistan in particular really is as a democracy, as well.
Pakistan is not really a democracy, it's more of a junta than anything but ISI doing shit like supporting the Taliban and hiding Osama right next to their West Point puts it more as 'a state where the only agreed thing that the two power blocks have is fuck India'...

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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by mr friendly guy » 2019-02-27 06:17am

Tensions are increasing. It looks like its confirmed that Pakistan shot down two Indian jets and captured 2 Indian pilots.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by Broomstick » 2019-02-27 06:32am

And yet... no hint of this on the TV news this morning....

Guess there's not enough blood on the ground for broadcast news. Anyhow, hope this doesn't escalate any further.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-02-27 06:46am

The silence about this on the news is downright eerie.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by mr friendly guy » 2019-02-27 06:57am

Well more escalation. India is claiming it shot down a Pakistan jet while losing one of its own in the exchange.

https://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings. ... ruary_2019
India had informed about Counter Terrorism (CT) action it took yesterday against a training camp of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) in Pakistan based on credible evidence that JeM intended to launch more attacks. Against this Counter Terrorism Action, Pakistan has responded this morning by using its Air Force to target military installations on the Indian side. Due to our high state of readiness and alertness, Pakistan’s attempts were foiled successfully.

The Pakistan Air Force was detected and the Indian Air Force responded instantly. In that aerial engagement, one Pakistan Air Force fighter aircraft was shot down by a MiG 21 Bison of the Indian Air Force. The Pakistani aircraft was seen by ground forces falling from the sky on the Pakistan side. In this engagement, we have unfortunately lost one MiG 21. The pilot is missing in action. Pakistan has claimed that he is in their custody. We are ascertaining the facts.

New Delhi
February 27, 2019
Such an exchange favours India, since they have the larger economy and military. In the "greater scheme" of geopolitics (and I hate putting it like that because greater scheme sounds like its planned, when its not), how would a war affect India's economy and military capabilities. Would it reduce their ability to be a semi counter to China or just a spoiler force?
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-02-27 07:01am

More importantly, what are the chances of this escalating into a) a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, and b) a larger war (involving China, etc.)?
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by Broomstick » 2019-02-27 07:12am

To be fair - I can understand not much of this being in the US news when it broke because it was something like 2-3 am in the morning here. At that hour, many "news" shows are taped repeats of earlier broadcasts. It's not until 5-6 am we start getting new news (unless something truly catastrophic occurs).

I think it's one of those situations were everyone is aware that it could go very badly, but that hasn't happened yet.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by LaCroix » 2019-02-27 08:00am

Also - it's far away and the fallout will only hit Russia and China. You might hear about "rising tensions" and "border skirmishes" soon, though.

Frankly, not knowing (and not having to worry about something you can not change or prevent) is sometimes bliss.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-02-27 08:05am

LaCroix wrote:
2019-02-27 08:00am
Also - it's far away and the fallout will only hit Russia and China. You might hear about "rising tensions" and "border skirmishes" soon, though.

Frankly, not knowing (and not having to worry about something you can not change or prevent) is sometimes bliss.
I don't know. Maybe I'm being overly cynical, but I have a hard time imagining a war between nuclear powers remaining local. If literal fallout hits China, are they going to sit on the sidelines? Or pitch in on Pakistan's side? And how would the rather China-phobic Trump Regime respond to that?

I think there's some dangerous complacency going on here.

And if there is going to be a major clash between nuclear powers, I cannot tell you how much I wish anyone but Trump were at the helm.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by Broomstick » 2019-02-27 08:31am

LaCroix wrote:
2019-02-27 08:00am
Also - it's far away and the fallout will only hit Russia and China. You might hear about "rising tensions" and "border skirmishes" soon, though.
Well, there is the little detail that the current PotUS is in Hanoi, Vietnam this morning meeting with Kim Jong-un (hope I got the current Kim's name right). So potentially there could be some fall-out on the leaders of two other nuclear powers... although the distance is something like 3,000+ km, so it would take a few days to get there. I expect those two would be evacuated out of the path of anything like that rapidly.

Actually, ANY nuclear detonation is going to make the news, regardless of where it is. If used in warfare of any sort that's even more true. Prior to that, though, it's a page 2 or 3 issue over here I think. The Chicago area is (apparently) much more interested in the fact that Chicago's next mayor is going to be black and female, it's just not decided which black woman is going to win the run-off election in April.
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Often true.
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UK appeals for 'restraint' as India-Pakistan row deepens after planes shot down over disputed Kashmir

Post by EnterpriseSovereign » 2019-02-27 03:04pm

As you can imagine, UK news gave it a bit more coverage:
The UK has called on India and Pakistan to show urgent "restraint" as tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals in the Kashmir dispute deepen.

Pakistan’s civil aviation authority said it has shut its airspace to all commercial flights as tensions with India escalate.

The announcement came after the nation’s army said its air force shot down two Indian warplanes and captured two pilots after they crossed the boundary in the disputed territory of Kashmir.

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt issued a video appeal for restraint, echoing a message delivered by Prime Minister Theresa May at the start of PMQs in the House of Commons.
Link.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by Gandalf » 2019-02-27 04:04pm

Yeah, I find it odd that the US news is apparently so silent on the issue. ABC here has been on it since the start.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by MKSheppard » 2019-02-27 04:44pm

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-02-27 06:46am
The silence about this on the news is downright eerie.
Because nobody gives a shit about those two nations.

A North Korean War would bring in CHINA/SOUTH KOREA/ JAPAN all of whom are key to today's modern technodustrial economy.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by Captain Seafort » 2019-02-27 04:49pm

MKSheppard wrote:
2019-02-27 04:44pm
A North Korean War would bring in CHINA/SOUTH KOREA/ JAPAN all of whom are key to today's modern technodustrial economy.
A war between these two stands a non-trivial chance of pulling in China.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by Broomstick » 2019-02-27 08:22pm

Tonight's evening news finally addressed this here in the US. Finally.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-02-27 08:24pm

Cohen stole the show.

You can argue over whether "The President of the United States' former lawyer testifies that he colluded with Russia to gain power and committed multiple felonies while in office" is a bigger news story than "Pakistan and India may fight a (possibly nuclear) war."
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-02-28 07:00am

Looks like Pakistan, at least, is trying to show restraint and step back from the brink-they've decided to release a captured Indian pilot they shot down as a "peace gesture". Modi, however, appears to be saber-rattling, risking nuclear war because he has an election coming. :finger:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... 8cea26f6d9

Trump, meanwhile, says that he has "reasonable attractive news" about the situation. :roll:
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by Jub » 2019-02-28 07:22am

I think people are overestimating the risk that this goes nuclear even if the two do formally declare war on one another the nukes would only come out if one side was at risk of being overrun. It's unlikely that would happen and even less likely that both sides wouldn't be told to sit down and play nice by the rest of the world well before it got to that point.

India is big, but I doubt they'd enjoy being a pariah and that goes double for Pakistan.

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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-03-01 01:15am

One can only hope.

The thing about nukes though, is... we only have to get unlucky once to thoroughly fuck our entire global civilization. When I look at how many times we've stepped back from the brink, it doesn't make me less concerned, so much as it makes me wonder how long it will be until we stop rolling all sixes.
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by Jub » 2019-03-01 02:10am

The Romulan Republic wrote:
2019-03-01 01:15am
One can only hope.

The thing about nukes though, is... we only have to get unlucky once to thoroughly fuck our entire global civilization. When I look at how many times we've stepped back from the brink, it doesn't make me less concerned, so much as it makes me wonder how long it will be until we stop rolling all sixes.
I don't even know if that's true, to be honest. Even if Pakistan was to become overrun, already unlikely, they'd be more likely to nuke the attacking forces than to hit anything within India. Now India needs to weight the value of nuking Pakistan and inviting Pakistan to nuke them back versus taking the massive hit and pressing the attack by other means.

The very fact that any serious success mounted by either side is likely to be nuked means escalation to that level of conflict is unlikely. Both sides would much rather rattle sabers, skirmish along the borders, and sell the PR gained back to their people. It costs less than a full war would and get's 90% of the same effect PR wise.

There's a reason the only real wars we see are fought in the lands of those who cannot effectively fight back. They can only hurt what you send in and even those forces are unlikely to take major losses in the types of conflicts the great powers choose to fight. There's just nothing to gain by warring with a peer level power in the nuclear age.

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The Romulan Republic
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by The Romulan Republic » 2019-03-01 02:13am

Don't get me wrong, of course nobody remotely sane wants it to happen. There are lots of reason for it not to happen. But we only have to fuck up once...
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Re: Odds of Nuclear War rise sharply- India bombs Pakistan in retaliation for terrorist attack.

Post by madd0ct0r » 2019-03-01 02:37am

Didnt we do this dance last decade? India sabre rattling, pakistan noting an invadion would be responded to by nuclear warfare, and the whole thing calmibg down again.

Its unlikely to spread globally trr, since neither india or Pakistan have enough warheads to share
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