2018 Midterm Elections Thread.

[Gandalf]

1. Why're all y'all talking about Manchin, when not one of y'all are able to vote for him?

Because it's a discussion board and he's an interesting figure. You may as well ask why non-Americans (or Americans who've had their voting rights suppressed) talk about any of the US' wacky candidates.

[Mr Bean]

Still crossing fingers that Cruz is going down since Florida and Georgia look to be staying Republican.

[FaxModem1]

Still crossing fingers that Cruz is going down since Florida and Georgia look to be staying Republican.

It's been a nail biter. Currently Beto has a two point lead. But there's only 4 percent of the vote tallied. We'll see where it goes as the night goes on.

[The Romulan Republic]

The channel I was watching (PBS I think) called it for Cruz.

They also called the House for the Dems, and the Senate for Republicans. I felt a definite relief at the first result, mostly because it sparred me from feeling obligated to immediately call for mass demonstrations and civil disobedience to overthrow the government at any cost.

Tonight is shaping up to be a very ambivalent result. We'll probably take the House... but maybe not by much. We're actually going to lose considerable ground in the Senate. We needed a knock-out win, and an ambivalent result, after such energy and hopes from Democrats, will be easy to spin as a Trump win. I also fear that it will have a deeply demoralizing effect on many Democrats, especially millennials, who may conclude in 2020 that there is no point in trying to vote. And worst of all, they may be right- because Trump now has everything he needs to spend the next two years appointing a rubber-stamp judiciary that will sanction his destruction of the Constitution by executive fiat. When you consider how much damage has been done in two years, I think it is a very open question whether there will be an election (or at least one in which Democrats are allowed to have any chance at all) in 2020.

I'm also very worried by the message that will be sent by Manchin winning while Heitkamp is losing-namely that the way for Democrats to get ahead is to give Trump what he wants. On the other hand, tonight has reportedly not been a good night for moderates in general (Manchin not withstanding).

The House will give us some leverage though, if that projection is correct (we were still behind in seats called last I checked, so that must be based on how upcoming seats in the West Coast area are expected to go). The power to investigate and subpoena in the House, and most crucially power over the budget. But that is a weapon that needs very aggressive Democrat leadership to wield effectively. If tonight is going to be anything but a small bump in the road toward fascist dictatorship, we need a House leadership that will be willing to shut down the Government every time Trump and the Senate do something fascistic. That... isn't Pelosi. She needs to go, pronto.

I am very pleased by the election of Polis in Colorado as the country's first openly gay governor. I'll also be interested to see how some of the close races (ie Nelson in Florida, Flake's seat, and Gillum* for Florida governor) go. Glad to see Scott Walker behind in Wisconsin, I hope that holds.

Keep in mind that this result does not really reflect the choices of the people. I have no doubt that without the massive voter suppression efforts in, for example, North Dakota and Georgia, this would be a better night for Democrats.


*Gillum is particularly interesting as to my knowledge it is the first test of the viability of a Bernie-style progressive in a state-wide general election, and in a swing state at that.

[The Romulan Republic]

Gillum has conceded in Florida. I'm disappointed, of course, but on the plus side, Florida voters approved a referendum restoring the voting rights of most felons. Also, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar are now the first Muslim women to be elected to Congress.

Another aspect of this that pushes tonight more towards a loss is that the Senate controls approving appointments for Cabinet officials and their subordinates as well as judges- which means that in all likelihood Sessions and Rosenstein, and thus Mueller, are going soon. Its been pretty obvious for a while that Trump was just being urged not to fire them until after the Midterms. Some Republican Senators were willing to protect the Mueller investigation, but that support appears to be waning, and now? Trump may very well have the votes he needs to end the Mueller probe by firing Sessions and Rosenstein and replacing them with a more reliable lackey. We could filibuster... but how long until the Republicans do away with the filibuster, or threaten a shutdown and Schumer caves?

If ever there could be a time Mueller will need to stop being a straight-shooter, its that. Because if Trump shuts down the probe, he's going to try to bury the evidence. Mueller and Rosenstein need to take everything that have straight to the press if that happens. Or, alternately, House Dems could subpoena their findings to keep Trump from burying them.

Or, best case scenario, Mueller will have numerous indictments ready to go as soon as the risk of appearing to be "interfering" in the election is out of the way.

[The Romulan Republic]

Another note of interest, which somewhat compensates for Gillum's loss: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was elected tonight to Congress as a Democratic Socialist. She is also, at age 29, the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.

[DaZergRock54444]

While the Senate remains in GOP hands for a time, the House is in dead heat per the AP, though Fox (yes, I know, it's running in the background because conservative family members) is presently projecting a Democrat win there.

Kobach lost in Kansas, so I'm happy for them.

I'm slightly more leery of how the new admin in Illinois will go, for as a Downstater, I have learned a not insignificant skepticism of the Democrats here, as it feels as though Madigan has every Dem in IL bound by a litany of magical oaths. However, the absolute metric shitton of claws that Trumpism has in every level of the GOP, and a dislike for the blood orange independents available (Libertarian and Conservative) far outweighs the troubles I have with the Chicago Machine.

[aerius]

The comedy writes itself.
https://www.apnews.com/afd73fee87e5442ca72b7179c593089e

Dead brothel owner wins election for Nevada legislative seat
By MICHELLE L. PRICE

LAS VEGAS (AP) — A Nevada brothel owner and reality TV star who died last month after fashioning himself as a Donald Trump-style Republican candidate has won a heavily GOP state legislative district.

Dennis Hof defeated Democratic educator Lesia Romanov on Tuesday in the race for Nevada’s 36th Assembly District, which includes rural communities and large stretches of desert in the southern part of the state. County officials will appoint a Republican to take his place in the seat.

Hof was found dead Oct. 16 after a weekend of parties celebrating his 72nd birthday. Officials are still determining his cause of death, but they don’t suspect foul play.

Hof owned a handful of brothels in Nevada, the only state that allows them to legally operate.

He also starred in the HBO adult reality series “Cathouse” and wrote a book titled “The Art of the Pimp,” akin to Trump’s book “The Art of the Deal.”

Hof was found dead at his Love Ranch brothel about an hour outside Las Vegas. His body was discovered by porn actor Ron Jeremy and a prostitute at the brothel.

Hof had spent the four previous days partying with notables from the sex industry and political world celebrating his 72nd birthday.

The brothel where his body was found is where NBA player Lamar Odom was found unconscious in 2015.

About 20 brothels operate in Nevada, mostly in rural areas. They’re banned in the counties that contain Las Vegas and Reno. The state doesn’t publicize how many are open, and most owners keep a much lower profile than Hof did.

Hof ran for office in 2016 as a Libertarian but lost the race.

This year, he ran as a Republican and earned backing from Trump associate Roger Stone and tax-cut activist Grover Norquist.

He upended Nevada politics this summer when he ousted an incumbent Republican lawmaker in a primary, celebrating at an election night party with “Hollywood Madam” Heidi Fleiss.

He said an anti-brothel push and regulatory problems he faced this year were political retribution.

Nevada’s 36th Assembly District has long been a Republican-held seat.

The sprawling assembly district that touches both California and Utah and includes the Nevada National Security Site where nuclear weapons were once tested.

[The Romulan Republic]

So who's actually going to hold his seat, since he kicked the bucket?

[The Romulan Republic]

Apparently Dickless, in true Orwellian fashion, has already gone out to claim that last night was a "huge victory" for Republicans.

While the Senate remains in GOP hands for a time, the House is in dead heat per the AP, though Fox (yes, I know, it's running in the background because conservative family members) is presently projecting a Democrat win there.

When Fox is projecting a Dem win, I think its safe to call it.

A quick Google search has it 220 to 194 seats in favor of the Dems, with 21 races out of 435 not yet called. In other words, our lead is now sufficient that even if every single outstanding race went Republican, we would still take the House (albeit only by five seats).

Kobach lost in Kansas, so I'm happy for them.

Indeed. Seeing a Dem. win in Kansas, especially against that asshole, is certainly something to appreciate.

State governments don't get as much attention, but they're arguably just as important as Congress. Not just because of the very important functions of government they control and the effect that will have on the day to day lives of citizens, but because they control redistricting (hence are the key to countering Republican gerrymandering), and because they can conduct criminal investigations outside the reach of a Presidential pardon. Also, they can obstruct corrupt Federal policies as a last resort (ie protecting sanctuary cities, as California is doing). And, if the shit ever really hit the fan, they control the state National Guard forces.

Control of state governments would also be key to calling a Constitutional Convention, if that were ever to happen.

In happy news, Democrats picked up seven governorships and state legislatures last night:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 810897002/

I'd say that there's as much cause to celebrate in that as in taking the House. Also: FUCK YES SCOTT WALKER IS GONE!

In Georgia, Abrams is refusing to concede to Kemp, and rightly so. I had expected it to be a wider margin (which it was earlier last night), but right now it is virtually tied, and Kemp's despicable voter suppression campaign means that the rightful winner is almost certainly Abrams. I expect that the Courts will rule in favor of Kemp, but she has every right to fight it out. Abrams has also previously said she will demand a runoff if neither candidate gets over fifty percent.

I'm slightly more leery of how the new admin in Illinois will go, for as a Downstater, I have learned a not insignificant skepticism of the Democrats here, as it feels as though Madigan has every Dem in IL bound by a litany of magical oaths. However, the absolute metric shitton of claws that Trumpism has in every level of the GOP, and a dislike for the blood orange independents available (Libertarian and Conservative) far outweighs the troubles I have with the Chicago Machine.

Indeed. I know a lot of the "anti-establishment" crowd disagrees, but given a choice between "corrupt" and "Nazi", I'll take corrupt every time. At least the Chicago machine doesn't make caging or shooting children a cornerstone of their politics.

Edit: That's not to say that we shouldn't push for reform in the Democratic Party, of course, but the safer time to do that is generally in the primaries.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

So who's actually going to hold his seat, since he kicked the bucket?

County officials will appoint a Republican to take his place in the seat.

Someone fucked up there by not realising a candidate dying might be cause to print updated ballots and/or update voting machines!

[The Romulan Republic]

If it were up to me, having a dead man's name on the ballot would be grounds to invalidate the results. People should know who they're actually voting for.

[bilateralrope]

Why doesn't the US like by-elections ?

Almost every time I can recall an elected official leaving office for whatever reason in my country, there has been a election to choose who replaces them for the rest of their term. The exceptions have been:
- Someone leave close to the end of their term. Then the position goes vacant until the usual election date.
- List MPs. They get replaced by the next person down the party list.

[U.P. Cinnabar]

What you call by elections , we call special elections, and we do hold them. What usually happens is, for example, what happened in the case of US Senator Paul Coverdell from Georgia back in the early 2000s. He died on the operating table, and former Governor Zell Miller was immediately appointed by then-Governor Roy Barnes to take his place, until a special election could be held that November to select someone to serve the balance of Coverdell's term.

Miller won, of course, serving the remainder of Coverdell's term before retiring from a long career in Georgia parlor tricks.

[bilateralrope]

So how long is it likely to take before the special election ?

[houser2112]

Or we do what New York did, and let the seat remain vacant for 8 months, and have concurrent elections for the remainder of Louise Slaughter's term in the 115th Congress and a full term in the 116th Congress.

[The Romulan Republic]

Colbert coverage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqBoCCleMz4

In West Virginia, Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin has defeated Republican Patrick Morrisey. Manchin celebrated his victory by saying "Wait, I'm a Democrat?"

Edit: Also...

And in New Jersey's Senate race, Democrat Bob Menendez, who is indicted... who is indicted for corruption and accused of underage prostitution, has defeated challenger Bob Hugin, proving you cannot keep a good man down, or Bob Menendez. Congratulations to the devil you know.

So that's two Democrats I don't think I could have voted for with a clean conscience, even this year. Better luck next primary.

That said... how hard do you have to fail to lose to a guy accused of child prostitution?

[U.P. Cinnabar]

So how long is it likely to take before the special election ?

In Georgia, special elections are generally held ihe following November..in the example mentioned upthread, there was no primary, and the special election held four months after Coverdrll's death.

[Captain Seafort]

how hard do you have to fail to lose to a guy accused of child prostitution?

In this case, not having a "D" after your name, presumably. Every country's got constituencies where you could pin the appropriately coloured rosette on a donkey and it would win.

[The Romulan Republic]

Hey, I'd have said as much about Alabama until Roy Moore came along.

I'm not sure whether to feel more disgusted that a blue state would vote in a likely child molester when a red state would not, or proud that Democrats were more able to mobilize to beat a likely child molester in an unfavorable state.

[bilateralrope]

That said... how hard do you have to fail to lose to a guy accused of child prostitution?

How well publicised was the child prostitution indictment ?

Because I'm very surprised that I didn't hear about it before today. That the Republicans weren't using it to harm the Democrats by association or as a response to any sexual assault accusations.

[The Romulan Republic]

Another interesting detail from the Colbert clip- apparently a polling place in Georgia was closed because the voting machine's battery ran out.

Yeah, Georgia is in no way a legitimate result.

Edit: Yeah, first I heard of it too. I don't think Colbert (comedian though he is) is someone who usually gets suckered by fake news or makes completely baseless criminal allegations against someone, but its weird.

[Zaune]

Well, according to his Wikipedia page the allegations about the underage prostitution came from the Daily Caller, which claimed that Menendez had hired some underage hookers while on holiday in the Dominican Republic. The local police went on the record stating that all three witnesses admitted to being paid off.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, according to his Wikipedia page the allegations about the underage prostitution came from the Daily Caller, which claimed that Menendez had hired some underage hookers while on holiday in the Dominican Republic. The local police went on the record stating that all three witnesses admitted to being paid off.

So, Alt. Reich smear? Or corrupt police? If the police are telling the truth, it sounds like the former.

Hmm, surprised Colbert would get suckered by that. He doesn't usually air Alt. Reich conspiracy theories.

[Batman]

He might still go with it even knowing it isn't true just to show that even if that were true the Dem would still be the less shitty candidate