The point you should keep in mind, is that while these guys are likely to not be repayed from the initial investment (especially development costs), the infrastructure they put up is likely to make enough money (and be useful enough) to grant its survival one way or another.
I can't think transferring fuel from lunar orbit (correct me if I am wrong) to LEO is going to be very efficient in many cases.
I'd like to know the reasoning behind this. The delta-v needed
is a fucking order of magnitude
less. All other things (like docking and refuelling/pushing) remain equal.
The delta-v is so small that you can do a round trip LEO/GEO-Moon Orbit without staging. From moon surface it would require staging (or two different vehicles, slightly smarter). From Earth is completely ludicrous, but can still make economic sense if you use crappier cheaper rockets from Ex-Soviet Ukraine to lift the fuel.
Also this way moon missions just require you to lift from Earth something like this
since you can refuel it where you need it (LEO and then moon orbit). Which is doable without having to design and build (and pay for) another Saturn V.
Hell, rockets are awesome in Earth orbit and Moon if you have a refuelling facility up there.