NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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Ma Deuce
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NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

Post by Ma Deuce »

WSJ wrote:NASA Chief Bolden Seeks 'Plan B' for the Space Agency

By ANDY PASZTOR

NASA chief Charles Bolden has asked senior managers to draw up an alternate plan for the space agency after members of Congress indicated they wanted to reject a White House proposal to hire private companies to ferry U.S. astronauts into orbit and beyond.

In an internal National Aeronautics and Space Administration memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Bolden ordered officials to map out "what a potential compromise might look like" to satisfy critics on Capitol Hill. By calling for an alternative plan, Mr. Bolden threatened to undercut White House efforts to get its proposed NASA budget through Congress.

The White House is seeking to cancel major existing programs intended to build a new generation of government spacecraft and rockets to carry astronauts into space.

Instead the administration wants to outsource some early missions to smaller companies, such as Orbital Sciences Corp. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

Under the White House plan, large and small companies would also compete for NASA funds to devise longer-term "game-changing" leaps in space propulsion and other capabilities.

Congress has reacted coolly to the White House proposal, which could lead to thousands of job losses in places like Florida, Texas and elsewhere. Many of the targeted programs involve large contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corp. and Alliant Techsystems Inc.

The move to draft a compromise highlights behind-the-scenes maneuvering by NASA officials to save big chunks of existing programs now in jeopardy.

A space-agency spokesman said that while the administrator "is open to hearing ideas from any member of the NASA team," Mr. Bolden and the ageny "are fully committed to the President's budget" because it "sets the agency on a reinvigorated path of space exploration."

The NASA memo, dated March 2, came just a few days after Mr. Bolden faced a tough round of questioning in Congress over the White House plan.

The memo suggests the NASA chief and his team were more inclined to try to pacify lawmakers than wage a tough battle to end multibillion-dollar contracts signed under the previous administration. It was written by Michael Coats, director of the Johnson Space Center.

In an email, Mr. Coats told senior managers at other centers and program offices that Mr. Bolden "agreed to let us set up a 'Plan B' team" to come up with alternate budget and program priorities.

NASA's latest budget has been buffeted by stiff bipartisan opposition from House and Senate members, including Rep. Bart Gordon, the Tennessee Democrat who chairs the House Science and Technology Committee. The memo says Mr. Bolden is meeting with Rep. Gordon "in a couple of days and asked for a one pager with talking points before his meeting."

The memo doesn't mention any coordination with senior White House budget aides, or senior policy makers in the President's Office of Science and Technology Policy, who played major roles in devising the administration's position.

The memo says the team will work further to "flesh out" alternative approaches consistent with White House budget caps and report through Douglas Cook, the NASA official overseeing the Constellation program to return to the moon, which the White House wants to kill.

NASA managers recognize the fiscal challenges they face to retain big-ticket items. "Living within the budget is a huge issue," the memo said, "since it's doubtful we'll get more funding" than the White House requested.

On Capitol Hill and in interviews, Mr. Bolden has stressed that he envisions retaining only small portions of the hardware being developed under the Constellation program.

But in the memo, which went to NASA offices that have major roles in supervising parts of Constellation, Mr. Coats suggests any alternate plan to please Congress most likely will entail keeping large chunks of Constellation and its planned Orion capsule, designed to transport astronauts to the international space station and beyond.

The memo lists "a human spacecraft development effort," heavy-lift rocket development and "a launch vehicle test program" as important elements of any alternate NASA plan. All three are core Constellation objectives.

Mr. Coats wrote about quickly assembling a study team and told colleagues: "You can name it anything you want—I don't recommend Constellation or Orion."

On Wednesday, NASA spokesman Bob Jacobs said that "after a long period of underinvestment in new technology and unrealistic budgeting," the President's proposals chart a space exploration path "that is bold, ambitious, and, most importantly, achievable."
Not a surprising development really, since it was abundantly clear that Congress was not going to approve Obama's NASA budget proposal. I'm starting to think this may have been the plan all along, that this proposal was nothing more that political showmanship that was never intended to become reality. It was after all ironic (and amusing) to watch Republicans fighting against privatization.

On the other hand, while I'm relieved that Constellation will apparently live to fight another day, the main problem with the program will remain, that it was never given enough funding to achieve it's goals. Even as a supporter of Constellation I'm not certain I could get behind a big spending increase for NASA (or anything else, for that matter) at the present time. Of course, if current funding were maintained for the time being, there's no reason it couldn't be increased at some point in the future if the budget situation improved, which would avoid the problems of having to start over from scratch.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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Even as a supporter of Constellation I'm not certain I could get behind a big spending increase for NASA (or anything else, for that matter) at the present time.
The way I see, we're already spending hundreds of billions in deficit spending on various things, many with the intention of creating jobs and other economic benefits (including R & D spending). It's not much of a burden to divert some of that towards NASA - you could double NASA's funding for FY2011 and it'd still be only a small percent of the Stimulus Package (never mind the amount of money spent in bailing out the financial sector).

Now, if the US were in the middle of serious austerity measures a la Greece, Ireland, etc, I'd be more worried about the cost, although I think the spending would still be worth it.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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The last thing NASA should do is subcontract out ISS support to smaller companies. This will only continue the corrupt "cost-plus" system. How about some Space Prizes? Let these companies compete for a fixed prize to demonstrate capability to delivery cargo and personnel to the ISS.

A prize of X dollars for ferrying two 3-person crews to the ISS and back and launching 2 cargo tugs carrying 2,500kg of cargo each. Both would have to use at least 51% US made components throughout and should NASA wish to it would be allowed to purchase additional craft for no more than 20% above cost.

This should spurn private industry to work to a fixed budget and free up NASA to explore more of our Solar system.

The other benefit is that if no company can develop a system to accomplish the mission, it costs the taxpayers exactly nothing, and if successful would never cost the taxpayers more than the prize money.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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Eion, may I ask a question:

When was the last time you read The Case for Mars by Robert Zubrin, and how many times have you read it total?
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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:mrgreen: I actually just finished re-reading it after Shep started that last Mars thread.

It's been a few years since I read it last. I don't know, 5, 6 times total.

Am I starting to channel the Zub?

The Prize system worked well enough for Space-Ship-One, Linbergh, and lots of others...
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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Yes, you are channeling the Zub. You see, all your arguments come straight from that book. I recognize them clearly, even though I myself haven't read the book in years.

Now, that doesn't mean your arguments are wrong. But it does suggest that you need to read more books. Such as books that detail what a realistic Moon mission of the same scope and ambition as Mars Direct might look like, and what they might be able to accomplish.

EDIT: And as I believe I said in the other thread, it's important to remember that the real debate isn't "Moon vs. Mars." It's "Moonmars-Marsmoon vs. Inertia." The fact that Zubrin dismisses Moon expeditions on the grounds that they are an unnecessary distraction in order to go to Mars does not mean that you must dismiss Moon expeditions. Mars will still be there even if we go back to the Moon first, after all.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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Any you might recomend? The last book I read that detailed anything like a serious moonbase was Ben Bova's "Welcome to Moonbase" which was interesting, if a little short on details. Pretty sure it was based of some of his fiction.

I relize he's biased, and probably just a little nuts. He thinks one of the great attractions to Mars is that they'll be no government; a libertarian paradise.

I love the moon, I do. But we know we can do that. We've got the plans, the rocks, and the photos to prove it. We don't know if we can do Mars.

Honestly though, I'd just be thrilled if we got out of low earth orbit again. I don't really care where so long as we keep pushing the boundries of humanity and stop hangning out in the Disneyworld parking lot and actually go inside!

We just need to figure out a way to remove the NASA chewtoy from the Congressional toybox so they can stop fighting over it. Privitize them, set up a trust fund, make it a blind budget, do whatever so long as that happens.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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The Prize system worked well enough for Space-Ship-One, Linbergh, and lots of others...
They'd have to be some big prizes to entice people out of LEO, just to make the immense capital costs alone worth it. I like Ben Bova's idea more - give out massive, long-term, extremely low-interest loans. Or you could do it as a tax credit, and let the companies getting it exchange it for investment money with other investors (that's how the Low Income Housing Tax Credit usually works).

That makes me remember a question I had. I'm pretty sure there's a treaty or somewhat that says that you can't just claim land on the Moon as your property. What about asteroids, though? If some individual or corporation lands on and begins mining an asteroid, do they have a claim to it?
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

Post by eion »

The Outer Space Treaty

Applies to all celestial bodies. governments can't claim them, but it makes no mention of corporations. So long as you make no claim of sovereignty, you can mine all you want.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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eion wrote:Any you might recomend? The last book I read that detailed anything like a serious moonbase was Ben Bova's "Welcome to Moonbase" which was interesting, if a little short on details. Pretty sure it was based of some of his fiction.
I'm afraid I don't have any recommendations, but I'll bet you can find the studies.

The plans exist; it's just that there's no equivalent of Robert Zubrin who actually sits down and writes a popular science book advocating them.
I relize he's biased, and probably just a little nuts. He thinks one of the great attractions to Mars is that they'll be no government; a libertarian paradise.
:banghead:
I've never understood why anyone thinks libertarianism would be viable on a space colony, of all places. That's the place where people HAVE to do certain tasks or everyone dies, no matter what else does or does not happen, and no matter whether they want to do them or not. In real life, you can theoretically get around this: you can conceivably grow your own food and dig your own latrine if no one else is willing to maintain farms and sewers for you. But you can't be a lone homesteader on Mars.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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I think he's more interested in a new political experiment on Mars, in the same way America became a new political experiment since it lacked any governing institutions and traditions like Europe. I guess the best word would be meritocracy.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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Simon_Jester wrote:
eion wrote:Any you might recomend? The last book I read that detailed anything like a serious moonbase was Ben Bova's "Welcome to Moonbase" which was interesting, if a little short on details. Pretty sure it was based of some of his fiction.
I'm afraid I don't have any recommendations, but I'll bet you can find the studies.

The plans exist; it's just that there's no equivalent of Robert Zubrin who actually sits down and writes a popular science book advocating them.
The only recent fully-developed plans I've seen are the Constelation plans, which really just look like Apollo 2. Nothing wrong with that, but nothing new; nothing like an integrated plan using all our assets. No using the ISS to stock up fuel using ETs to allow larger cargo loads to the Moon, No Venturstar-like spaceplane to carry cargo to LEO at 1/10th the current space shuttle price, no long term colonization plans using microwave hardened lunar-regolith bricks.

If we're going to go the Moon, it should be to stay. Build a nice base on the far side and set up a nice radio telescope and start mining helium-3.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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eion wrote:I think he's more interested in a new political experiment on Mars, in the same way America became a new political experiment since it lacked any governing institutions and traditions like Europe. I guess the best word would be meritocracy.
If space colonies start experimenting with new social structures, they're not likely to come up with better answers than the ones found in a more stable, less demanding environment. The Americas were different in that respect: they were lower pressure than Europe because there was more room for immigrating Europeans to spread into than they had back home.

Whereas space is higher pressure than Earth simply because of the complexity of the infrastructure you need to survive there.
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Note: even in the Americas, the US lucked out. The only place in the American colonies where a social model dramatically better than what was widely found in Europe emerged was on the North Atlantic coast. The southern English colonies, the Caribbean, and Latin America wound up being controlled by plantation agriculture that was just as bad as serfdom in many ways, if not worse, and a lot of those countries wound up taking longer to achieve stable democracies than Europe did.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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Simon_Jester wrote:Yes, you are channeling the Zub. You see, all your arguments come straight from that book. I recognize them clearly, even though I myself haven't read the book in years.

Now, that doesn't mean your arguments are wrong. But it does suggest that you need to read more books. Such as books that detail what a realistic Moon mission of the same scope and ambition as Mars Direct might look like, and what they might be able to accomplish.

EDIT: And as I believe I said in the other thread, it's important to remember that the real debate isn't "Moon vs. Mars." It's "Moonmars-Marsmoon vs. Inertia." The fact that Zubrin dismisses Moon expeditions on the grounds that they are an unnecessary distraction in order to go to Mars does not mean that you must dismiss Moon expeditions. Mars will still be there even if we go back to the Moon first, after all.
Its been a while since I've read any of Zubrin's books, but as best I can recall, he doesn't actually oppose going to the Moon as you seem to imply. He just considers Mars the more valuable target, and opposes using the Moon as a needless "stepping-stone" to Mars. Which is a perfectly legitimate point.

Maybe you get the wrong impression if you've only read The Case for Mars. Read another of his books, Entering Space (which is far broader and more comprehensive in scope), and you'll find that he deals with the Moon in some detail, unless my recollections are completely off.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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The Romulan Republic wrote: Its been a while since I've read any of Zubrin's books, but as best I can recall, he doesn't actually oppose going to the Moon as you seem to imply. He just considers Mars the more valuable target, and opposes using the Moon as a needless "stepping-stone" to Mars. Which is a perfectly legitimate point.

Maybe you get the wrong impression if you've only read The Case for Mars. Read another of his books, Entering Space (which is far broader and more comprehensive in scope), and you'll find that he deals with the Moon in some detail, unless my recollections are completely off.
I actually had a copy of Entering Space, but it's been misplaced somewhere. I'll have to go pick up another. I think you're absolutely right though. His biggest fear I think is that we'll start another Moon program with the intent of going on to Mars, but we'll cancel it again. Remember that von Braun had plans of getting to Mars by 1980, directly on from Apollo using repurposed Apollo hardware.

Zubrin's major contribution has been in his advocacy for "Lews & Clark" space exploration; Living off the land as much as possible. He's applied that to Mars, the Moon, and the asteroids.

My favorite of his "inventions" though is the magsail because it may well be the key to intersteller travel.
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Re: NASA looks for 'Plan B' 2011 budget

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The Romulan Republic wrote:Its been a while since I've read any of Zubrin's books, but as best I can recall, he doesn't actually oppose going to the Moon as you seem to imply. He just considers Mars the more valuable target, and opposes using the Moon as a needless "stepping-stone" to Mars. Which is a perfectly legitimate point.

Maybe you get the wrong impression if you've only read The Case for Mars. Read another of his books, Entering Space (which is far broader and more comprehensive in scope), and you'll find that he deals with the Moon in some detail, unless my recollections are completely off.
All right; that probably explains it.
eion wrote:I actually had a copy of Entering Space, but it's been misplaced somewhere. I'll have to go pick up another. I think you're absolutely right though. His biggest fear I think is that we'll start another Moon program with the intent of going on to Mars, but we'll cancel it again. Remember that von Braun had plans of getting to Mars by 1980, directly on from Apollo using repurposed Apollo hardware.
True. I think the difference is that von Braun sent a series of "flag and footprints" missions to the Moon that made a satisfactory cutoff point for the program; we could rest on our laurels and still do our "we put a man on the Moon, aren't we awesome?" dance.

Plans to send prolonged scientific expeditions and build an actual base might be a bit less likely to come apart in the planner's hands, since they don't just begin with a convenient breakoff point that leaves the people funding you proud of their "accomplishment" despite having only gone through with a tiny fraction of the program.
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