And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by Count Chocula »

Pablo Sanchez wrote:
Count Chocula wrote: If and when our current economic model fails, the inner cities will be ruled by people who look like your avatar. At that point, the stage will be set for a totalitarian Pied Piper to pick up the pieces and rope in those who will pay any price to stop the fighting, looting and scarcity. I'm hoping it never gets that far, but...it might. I'm still hoping that the adults will get to run the show, instead of the mouth-breathing thieving liars we've been saddled with for decades.
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Honestly, your statement here smacks of historical ignorance. People, especially on the internet, talk a good game about Social Collapse but it's just bullshit. In most countries society is actually pretty rugged and can survive a beating, and this has been demonstrated time and again. It is extraordinarily unlikely, for example, that the current economic problems will get even close to the kind of ugly situation that Britain survived in the postwar era (rationing continued into 1954, for those of you who didn't know). Certainly, in an economic meltdown some countries on less secure footing are going to be in trouble--Mexico is already fraying around the edges, just for one--but America is a pretty tough bird.
I exaggerated by using Humungous for effect. My concern is that the US may wind up where Argentina was in 2002, with looting, rioting, high crime, food shortages, and a currency crash. In that event, I can easily see most urban areas resembling Detroit or Philadelphia, with vacant vandalized buildings, high murder and robbery rates, and an overall shitty way of life.

In my experience, having grown up and lived in both urban and rural areas, Americans would NOT cope well with scarcity, poverty and high crime...especially when most Americans would believe that they had nothing to do with the conditions. Get a few million unemployed, frustrated, angry people riled up or fearful, and you have all the ingredients needed for rioting. Suburban areas might fare better as far as crime goes, but I wouldn't bet on it - and I live in a suburb. Police agencies are already concerned about riots; and not only in the USA:
The Guardian UK wrote:Britain faces summer of rage - police
Middle--class anger at economic crisis could erupt into violence on streets

Police are preparing for a "summer of rage" as victims of the economic downturn take to the streets to demonstrate against financial institutions, the Guardian has learned.

Britain's most senior police officer with responsibility for public order raised the spectre of a return of the riots of the 1980s, with people who have lost their jobs, homes or savings becoming "footsoldiers" in a wave of potentially violent mass protests.

Superintendent David Hartshorn, who heads the Metropolitan police's public order branch, told the Guardian that middle-class individuals who would never have considered joining demonstrations may now seek to vent their anger through protests this year.

He said that banks, particularly those that still pay large bonuses despite receiving billions in taxpayer money, had become "viable targets". So too had the headquarters of multinational companies and other financial institutions in the City which are being blamed for the financial crisis.
Britons are generally far more polite and restrained than Americans. If England is worried about riots, I can easily deduce that Federal, state and local governments are concerned in the US.

Do I think it's "game over" for the US? Hell no; things were worse in 1982:
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I'm concerned, however, that some smooth-talking, promise-filled demagogue will come onto the scene and Americans will be so desperate for improvements they'll follow whoever is most persuasive, not necessarily who is best, and we'll wind up with a kinder, gentler version of Mussolini, along with a new crop of Congressional ripoff artists. The worst thing that could happen to the US in my opinion is a degree of discomfort, possibly suffering, that will make people turn off their critical faculties and follow their emotions.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by Dark Hellion »

Americans will be so desperate for improvements they'll follow whoever is most persuasive, not necessarily who is best
Have you missed the last century of so of American politics? We don't ever have the best people running the country. Meritocracy isn't an end benefit of representative government. We end up with the idiots that reflect us. Most of the problems we are currently facing is exactly because people have turned off their critical facilities as you put it.

Americans may not like suffering. We haven't done so in a long time. But even people of my generation had our grandparents to tell us stories about suffering. And the older generations had their parents. We are not far enough away from World War II to have a community that is completely ignorant to suffering and sacrifice.

The problem in not about what to happen if such suffering starts but what kind of bullshit will people define as the start of suffering (not getting to use their private jet [boo-fucking hoo]) and what kind of wrangling will these kind of people do to avoid it. The costs of avoiding suffering are what is killing us. The pretense that we are going to have our omelette and a fridge full of eggs is worse than some intangible fear of a fascistic demagogue.

And you make it out like the poor rioting against the bankers and financial assholes who have maintained their poverty is some massive injustice and threat to the free world. Are you heartless or brainless? They are the ones being screwed in every orifice and sooner or later they are going to break unless people (cough republicans) stop shielding and making excuses for the people who help exacerbate these circumstances and start enacted programs and policies that help to prevent the creation of these violent poverty culture. But that would require socialistic programs and actual change, which is anathema to the status quoism that keeps the average middle class white in the passive and peaceful little existence of mass media and tabloid outrages.

You want to avoid these riots. Help poor people. Give them what they need. Food, money and education. Get enough money that you can force the education down their throats if necessary. Boom, no more pent up populace of minorities for you to piss on and no more fear that brown people might burn down your city.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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Count Chocula wrote:I exaggerated by using Humungous for effect
I would support you here. It's not a fucking exaggeration; Argentina 2001 or Russia post-1991 are marvellous examples of Mad Max style socities. If someone thinks it's an exaggeration, he needs to read reports on the consequences of those economic crises.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by Edi »

Surlethe wrote:As far as I know, the only person on the board who is really qualified in economics is MoO.
Both Stas Bush and PeZook have formal qualifications in economics as far as I know and they also have a generally better track record with arguments related to the field than MoO has.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by Surlethe »

Edi wrote:
Surlethe wrote:As far as I know, the only person on the board who is really qualified in economics is MoO.
Both Stas Bush and PeZook have formal qualifications in economics as far as I know and they also have a generally better track record with arguments related to the field than MoO has.
I recall PeZook now that you mention him (:oops:), but I did not know Stas had formal qualifications - very cool. MoO is a libertarian, but that's chiefly a values difference; I'd be pretty willing to trust him when it comes to factual matters. (Edit -that is to say, I wouldn't be more skeptical of MoO's factual claims than of any other economist's just because he's libertarian.)

Anyway, on the topic of budget deficits, a report [pdf] from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. See figure three - Economic Assumptions. Although Pres. Obama's budget is more honest when it comes to recording budget shortfalls, apparently they're making rosier economic predictions than private analysts.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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To be honest, I graduated from the faculty of economics, specialty in marketing: in practice, it means I took three years of general economic courses, and then a two-year specialist program in marketing.

More importantly, my current job is such that I don't really follow economic indicators in a way that would make me qualified to make informed judgements about the state of things, which is why I mostly keep my trap shut in threads such as this.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by jegs2 »

Darth Wong wrote:Frankly, the problem is not your leaders. It's your average citizen. Who do you think emboldened Bush to act the way he did? Remember those 90% approval ratings, or the fact that he got re-elected in 2004? People liked his policies until they started suffering blowback for them, then they got pissed off and voted for somebody else. But they never understood that their own attitudes were at fault. It's always somebody else's fault.

They still have the same stupid attitudes about demanding services from the government without wanting to pay for them.
I concur. Individual responsibility took a nose-dive in the US over the past several decades. Not that long ago, it would have been nearly unthinkable for the average US citizen to go into debt just to get things they desired, and banks did not offer loans to those they weren't pretty darned sure could pay for them in the time allotted.

At this point, I don't think any leadership at the national helm will make a difference. Local representatives will continue to campaign and win on local issues, which will involve promises for things that benefit their constituents directly (read: pork). The system appears irrevocably broken now, and it has been tilting that way for decades now.

I said about ten years ago that the US had about fifty years of life left. I may have been too optimistic.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by Darth Wong »

The situation does indeed look grim, jegs. But at the same time, I do still think the American people have the potential to rediscover their willingness to act responsibly and even sacrifice for the greater good, instead of this "gimme gimme gimme" attitude. After all, this is still the same country that got through the Great Depression and won the second world war. The question is whether they can rediscover that character in time.

PS. The other question is whether the entire Baby Boomer generation will have to die off before that can happen, and possibly my own generation as well. It may be that today's children are the ones who will have to right the ship, if it's not too late by then.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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Darth Wong wrote:The situation does indeed look grim, jegs. But at the same time, I do still think the American people have the potential to rediscover their willingness to act responsibly and even sacrifice for the greater good, instead of this "gimme gimme gimme" attitude. After all, this is still the same country that got through the Great Depression and won the second world war. The question is whether they can rediscover that character in time.

PS. The other question is whether the entire Baby Boomer generation will have to die off before that can happen, and possibly my own generation as well. It may be that today's children are the ones who will have to right the ship, if it's not too late by then.
From my experience, relying on our generation to do the right thing may be too optimistic. I have a hard time convincing my peers that the concept of a greater good is valid. Our generation is one of the most pampered generation in history I think.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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ray245 wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:The situation does indeed look grim, jegs. But at the same time, I do still think the American people have the potential to rediscover their willingness to act responsibly and even sacrifice for the greater good, instead of this "gimme gimme gimme" attitude. After all, this is still the same country that got through the Great Depression and won the second world war. The question is whether they can rediscover that character in time.

PS. The other question is whether the entire Baby Boomer generation will have to die off before that can happen, and possibly my own generation as well. It may be that today's children are the ones who will have to right the ship, if it's not too late by then.
From my experience, relying on our generation to do the right thing may be too optimistic. I have a hard time convincing my peers that the concept of a greater good is valid. Our generation is one of the most pampered generation in history I think.
I know. But they might suffer from the economic downturn young enough to affect their thinking. Unfortunately, the old adage is true: suffering builds character. And its opposite is also apparently true: pampering builds weakness.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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ray245 wrote: From my experience, relying on our generation to do the right thing may be too optimistic. I have a hard time convincing my peers that the concept of a greater good is valid.
You just know the wrong people.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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salm wrote:
ray245 wrote:From my experience, relying on our generation to do the right thing may be too optimistic. I have a hard time convincing my peers that the concept of a greater good is valid.
You just know the wrong people.
On the other hand, we've had many threads on this forum where young people claimed that the idea of a school uniform was a form of tyranny and a violation of their human rights. That says "pampered" to me, and quite loudly too.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by salm »

Darth Wong wrote:
salm wrote:
ray245 wrote:From my experience, relying on our generation to do the right thing may be too optimistic. I have a hard time convincing my peers that the concept of a greater good is valid.
You just know the wrong people.
On the other hand, we've had many threads on this forum where young people claimed that the idea of a school uniform was a form of tyranny and a violation of their human rights. That says "pampered" to me, and quite loudly too.
Oh, i agree that many people are pampered. But in my experience many people do believe in "the grater good". Annecdotal, of course, but so is Rays statement.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by Count Chocula »

Jegs2 wrote:I concur. Individual responsibility took a nose-dive in the US over the past several decades. Not that long ago, it would have been nearly unthinkable for the average US citizen to go into debt just to get things they desired, and banks did not offer loans to those they weren't pretty darned sure could pay for them in the time allotted.
Darth Wong wrote:But at the same time, I do still think the American people have the potential to rediscover their willingness to act responsibly and even sacrifice for the greater good, instead of this "gimme gimme gimme" attitude. After all, this is still the same country that got through the Great Depression and won the second world war. The question is whether they can rediscover that character in time.
Both good observations. When my wife and I got our house, we put down 20%, and based our payments on me being the sole breadwinner (we didn't have a child at the time, but it was in the plans). The only mortgage we contemplated was a 30 year fixed, and we bought a house priced $50k under the loan amount I could have taken. One reason we left California 10 years ago was the stupidity in the home prices. There are a lot of Americans like me; after all, 90%-92% of mortgages in America are NOT in default or foreclosure - just the ones that shouldn't have been made in the first place. And those short-sighted motherfuckers (Main Street and Wall Street) are screwing us all over, with the full participation of Congress.

Compare my situation to my mother's. She was an early stage Baby Boomer, born right after WWII. She went the whole liberal route - divorced my father when I was 4 and my sister was 2, moved to DC to work on Capitol Hill, packed us off to the grandparents most summers so she could "be herself," and basically lived like a mayfly. And her friends were no better in that regard. Note that I'm not condemning my mother, just putting things in context. Now she's only a couple of years from retirement, she blew half her smallish IRA on home improvement projects, and now she doesn't have enough to retire. Surprise, surprise! She'll be working until she's no longer able to...just like we probably will.

So on top of the past 20 or more years of stupid legislation, ever-expanding national debt, unfunded commitments (Social Security has been an off-budget item since Johnson's administration, IIRC), and more "gimme-gimme" spending every year, people like me who see ten-year deficit projections equal to Gross Domestic Product get a little...bit...pissed. If you notice angry people around you over Washington's shenanigans, you're probably seeing only the top of the iceberg. My coworkers, friends and neighbors are angry over the irresponsibility we see, and getting angrier almost by the day. My personal observations are part of the reason why I posted that we could turn Argentine if this situation continues.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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On the other hand, we've had many threads on this forum where young people claimed that the idea of a school uniform was a form of tyranny and a violation of their human rights. That says "pampered" to me, and quite loudly too.
I don't think you can readily define national character of a generation on the faulty thinking of youth and tradition. The view point is pampered, but Americans have lived a life in a time that allows for some pampering (we've overdone it to be sure, make no mistake). People like to avoid making hard choices even if they are fully capable. Suffering not only builds character but can reveal it. I have no high hopes for my generation except that we can be better than the baby boomers. Not much to be sure, but better than what many have given us.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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salm wrote:Oh, i agree that many people are pampered. But in my experience many people do believe in "the grater good". Annecdotal, of course, but so is Rays statement.
You fail to account for the cultural differences between his homeland and Europe and the US. He's from Singapore and so are some other SDN members and I know a few others too. So you can take what he says about how it is there largely at face value. He's not the only one from there who has been saying similar things.

My generation in Finland is very pampered compared to the generation of my parents (I was born in 1976, my parents in the 40s) due to the way the aftermath of WW2 went and how things developed after that. My generation still has some spine (the precise amount is debatable), but there's too much sense of entitlement and the generation after me is incredibly spoiled. That is a function of just how tight things were, in some other places, especially in the US, it apparently seems to be ahead of us in this respect somewhat.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by Illuminatus Primus »

Count Chocula wrote:
Jegs2 wrote:I concur. Individual responsibility took a nose-dive in the US over the past several decades. Not that long ago, it would have been nearly unthinkable for the average US citizen to go into debt just to get things they desired, and banks did not offer loans to those they weren't pretty darned sure could pay for them in the time allotted.
Darth Wong wrote:But at the same time, I do still think the American people have the potential to rediscover their willingness to act responsibly and even sacrifice for the greater good, instead of this "gimme gimme gimme" attitude. After all, this is still the same country that got through the Great Depression and won the second world war. The question is whether they can rediscover that character in time.
Both good observations. When my wife and I got our house, we put down 20%, and based our payments on me being the sole breadwinner (we didn't have a child at the time, but it was in the plans). The only mortgage we contemplated was a 30 year fixed, and we bought a house priced $50k under the loan amount I could have taken. One reason we left California 10 years ago was the stupidity in the home prices. There are a lot of Americans like me; after all, 90%-92% of mortgages in America are NOT in default or foreclosure - just the ones that shouldn't have been made in the first place. And those short-sighted motherfuckers (Main Street and Wall Street) are screwing us all over, with the full participation of Congress.

Compare my situation to my mother's. She was an early stage Baby Boomer, born right after WWII. She went the whole liberal route - divorced my father when I was 4 and my sister was 2, moved to DC to work on Capitol Hill, packed us off to the grandparents most summers so she could "be herself," and basically lived like a mayfly. And her friends were no better in that regard. Note that I'm not condemning my mother, just putting things in context. Now she's only a couple of years from retirement, she blew half her smallish IRA on home improvement projects, and now she doesn't have enough to retire. Surprise, surprise! She'll be working until she's no longer able to...just like we probably will.

So on top of the past 20 or more years of stupid legislation, ever-expanding national debt, unfunded commitments (Social Security has been an off-budget item since Johnson's administration, IIRC), and more "gimme-gimme" spending every year, people like me who see ten-year deficit projections equal to Gross Domestic Product get a little...bit...pissed. If you notice angry people around you over Washington's shenanigans, you're probably seeing only the top of the iceberg. My coworkers, friends and neighbors are angry over the irresponsibility we see, and getting angrier almost by the day. My personal observations are part of the reason why I posted that we could turn Argentine if this situation continues.
Yeah, I'm sure this translated into total hate and resentment for the performance of the economy for the last 20, 10, and especially 5 years and with political radicalism on your part totally rejecting the modern neoliberal Reaganomics assertion. You may not like social spending and its commitments but BY FAR the reason why this country has mortgaged its future was to finance the gambling economy based on Wall Street (and the surrounding service economy, by which was meant we would serve the gambling lords Starbucks and steak while they gambled the money they paid us recirculated via sweet heart pension investment plans and sweetheart government regulation). Please. You voted for the most extreme of these economic lunatics, and you know it - and only now do you have buyer's remorse, and you square it away by conflating it with your disdain for social programs.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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She went the whole liberal route - divorced my father when I was 4 and my sister was 2, moved to DC to work on Capitol Hill, packed us off to the grandparents most summers so she could "be herself," and basically lived like a mayfly. And her friends were no better in that regard.
Why is this the "liberal" route? This is what my conservative small town does. The most liberal family I know in town has savings, takes very good care of their kids, is well educated and has a strong respect for social programs and an empathy for the poor.

This is why I find you such a tool Choc. Every post is some whinging mealy mouthed condemnation of how the liberals did something bad. You dance around issues, still demonstrate no working knowledge of social contract theory and generally just whine and look like an ass.

And this isn't some liberal attack on you. I am far more conservative than Wong or Edi. To be sure people like Glocksman are farther right than me, but I still fall central right on the American political scale. That doesn't mean I can't see the shit you are trying to peddle and the blame you are trying so hard to deflect and redirect.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

Post by Count Chocula »

OFF TOPIC WARNING
Illuminatus Primus wrote:You voted for the most extreme of these economic lunatics, and you know it
Umm, no, no I didn't. You probably voted for the Trillion Dollar Man and his Congress; me, nope. And I'm glad you know me so well you can make such definite conclusions about my character. Oh wait, you don't, so shut the fuck up until I say something you can actually point to as an example.

OH and DH, show me where I flattered the Republicans.
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Darth Wong
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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What the fuck makes you think anyone is talking about the 2008 elections? This problem wasn't created one month ago, moron. What we're seeing now is just the wheel coming around.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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Count Chocula wrote:OFF TOPIC WARNING
Illuminatus Primus wrote:You voted for the most extreme of these economic lunatics, and you know it
Umm, no, no I didn't. You probably voted for the Trillion Dollar Man and his Congress; me, nope. And I'm glad you know me so well you can make such definite conclusions about my character. Oh wait, you don't, so shut the fuck up until I say something you can actually point to as an example.

OH and DH, show me where I flattered the Republicans.
So you voted for McCain who gleefully supported the bailout? Financial deregulation? Free market religion? Financiers are the real Americans? The only difference between the Republicans and Democrats is the Democrats feel that a cent or five of every dollar can be thrown to some suffering hard-working Americans - the real people of the United States - with the rest of the dollar going to financiers. The Republicans believe in giving the whole dollar to rich people in the ruling class who built the current system around the parameters which made this crisis inevitable. Recently they've taken to just lying about it or using misdirection (McCain's 2.5 trillion dollar tax cut, anyone?) for those little people in Oklahoma and Tennessee who actually started taking their religion seriously. Furthermore, the real founding prophet of this religion was Ronald Reagan, and somehow I doubt you follow commentators, media, and politicians who consider him a bad guy in any way whatsoever. The simple fact was in the 1980s deregulation was not as good idea as it was sold to be, and turning this country from an admittedly suffering partially-state regulated and state-participating industrial nation into a support mechanism for financial gambling was entirely the creation of his allies in ruling class during his Administration.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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Dark Hellion wrote:
She went the whole liberal route - divorced my father when I was 4 and my sister was 2, moved to DC to work on Capitol Hill, packed us off to the grandparents most summers so she could "be herself," and basically lived like a mayfly. And her friends were no better in that regard.
Why is this the "liberal" route? This is what my conservative small town does. The most liberal family I know in town has savings, takes very good care of their kids, is well educated and has a strong respect for social programs and an empathy for the poor.

This is why I find you such a tool Choc. Every post is some whinging mealy mouthed condemnation of how the liberals did something bad. You dance around issues, still demonstrate no working knowledge of social contract theory and generally just whine and look like an ass.

And this isn't some liberal attack on you. I am far more conservative than Wong or Edi. To be sure people like Glocksman are farther right than me, but I still fall central right on the American political scale. That doesn't mean I can't see the shit you are trying to peddle and the blame you are trying so hard to deflect and redirect.
BINGO. This is what has become so odious about SDN conservatives. They're all chickenshits who cannot stick up for what they really say elsewhere and really believe, and are completely unwilling to challenge the status quo in a really decisive way, just using some mealy-mouthed combination of Clinton-era anti-government militia freak rhetoric and plain-old Reaganism. They've just put a new management sign over the same pile of dogshit, but they're completely unwilling to offer real solutions for the social and economic welfare of modern people. They just snip from the sidelines.
"You know what the problem with Hollywood is. They make shit. Unbelievable. Unremarkable. Shit." - Gabriel Shear, Swordfish

"This statement, in its utterly clueless hubristic stupidity, cannot be improved upon. I merely quote it in admiration of its perfection." - Garibaldi in reply to an incredibly stupid post.

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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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Count Chocula wrote:Umm, no, no I didn't. You probably voted for the Trillion Dollar Man and his Congress; me, nope. And I'm glad you know me so well you can make such definite conclusions about my character. Oh wait, you don't, so shut the fuck up until I say something you can actually point to as an example.
Oh, right, you voted for the procyclical spender's heir apparent. :roll: I can't believe you're pissed off about the behavior of the government and not ready to burn Wall Street to the fucking ground. If you think that simple Keynesian deficit spending in the worst economic contraction since 1929 is irresponsible and unjustified, why aren't you lambasting the free-marketeers who consistently blocked regulation of credit swaps and derivatives? Why aren't you stomping on Reagan's grave, since his blind anti-government ideology has dominated the American political scene over last thirty years? Why don't you direct your hatred toward the bankers and Wall Street managers, who in their blind optimism seized on unstable models and made unrealistic assumptions about the progression of housing prices? What about Alan Greenspan, whose unprecedented monetary expansion drove the housing bubble? Or the baby boomers, whose entitlement, anti-government, spendthrift culture have gotten into this mess in the first goddamned place? You are surrounded by a cesspool of irresponsibility, and you are directing your anger at the people who are acting responsibly and trying to pick up the pieces.
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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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I wouldn't be surprised if Chocula is one of those people who voted for nobody and now smugly says he's better than everyone who voted for anyone.
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"It's not evil for God to do it. Or for someone to do it at God's command."- Jonathan Boyd on baby-killing

"you guys are fascinated with the use of those "rules of logic" to the extent that you don't really want to discussus anything."- GC

"I do not believe Russian Roulette is a stupid act" - Embracer of Darkness

"Viagra commercials appear to save lives" - tharkûn on US health care.

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Re: And you thought Bush's budget deficits were bad...

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Stas Bush wrote:I would support you here. It's not a fucking exaggeration; Argentina 2001 or Russia post-1991 are marvellous examples of Mad Max style socities. If someone thinks it's an exaggeration, he needs to read reports on the consequences of those economic crises.
Right, because the underlying political and social conditions prevailing in those states were so similar to what the United States has right now. I said that some countries would do worse out of the economic crisis than others, and I cited Mexico as one example. There are other examples, but honestly, what Chocula described before hedging his response (America's inner cities ruled by warlords) essentially could not happen.
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