PMCs take over from armies? Plausable?

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Sidewinder
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Post by Sidewinder »

PainRack wrote:What about individual mercenaries? There isn't any reason why something like the Foreign Legion or Gurkhas can't be created in other countries and hire citizens from around the world.

They're mercs since they aren't really citizens of that specific country and are signing on for cash, but in all other aspects, they're part of your standing military.
My recruiter once mentioned an ex-legionnaire who tried to join the US Army, but couldn't because joining the Foreign Legion gives you permanent French citizenship.

Anyways, I SERIOUSLY doubt the Foreign Legion has enough men and materiels to win against the combined forces of the French military if the legionnaires mutinied en mass.
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
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Post by Adrian Laguna »

SiegeTank wrote:To clarify, you could of course always hire foreign mercenaries if you don't have an army of your own... But then at some point you have to wonder what's going to convince the mercenaries to leave your nation once their contract is up. After all, if they're a full-blown army of themselves, and you have nothing...
What incentive would they have to stay? They make far more money by taking a different contract elsewhere than trying to make the country that just hired them their bitch. Not to mention that occupations are a pain in the ass to run, no matter how well they are trained and how advanced their equipment. See the USA in Iraq. Remember, Mercenaries are in it for the money, there's not much of that to be had in trying to take over a nation when you only have a few thousand men at your disposal.
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Post by Siege »

Adrian Laguna wrote:What incentive would they have to stay? They make far more money by taking a different contract elsewhere than trying to make the country that just hired them their bitch.
What if they turn their former employer's nation into the world's biggest ever protection racket? Pay us sum X yearly or we mess you up. I could see something like that working if said former employer was, say, Ethiopia.

Either that or they take a page from Shep's scenario, set up shop on a diamond mine and phone up their corporate buddies at DeBeers...

Not to mention that occupations are a pain in the ass to run, no matter how well they are trained and how advanced their equipment. See the USA in Iraq.


Well, alright, I see little reason for a mercenary corporation to try and take over a messed-up hole in the ground like current-day Iraq. But then, in such a place, why couldn't they take over the oil fields and leave Baghdad to the fundies? Postulating a world where no-one cares if mercenaries gun down civilians on a daily basis in Podunkistan, I'm not sure if an occupation-of-natural-resources would be completely impossible or unprofitable.

Now granted, I doubt any mercenary army could get away with wanton slaughter *right now* but then again, I doubt any mercenary army right now could completely replace the national army of any nation needing a national army right now, so this is all hypotheticals anyway.
Remember, Mercenaries are in it for the money, there's not much of that to be had in trying to take over a nation when you only have a few thousand men at your disposal.
Granted, but if you've got only a couple thousand men, there aren't going to be many national armies you'll be capable of replacing. Either these mercs replace the national army of Liechtenstein, which is pointless, or we're talking about a much larger Future Merc Corporation, I think.
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Post by Aaron »

Sidewinder wrote: My recruiter once mentioned an ex-legionnaire who tried to join the US Army, but couldn't because joining the Foreign Legion gives you permanent French citizenship.

Anyways, I SERIOUSLY doubt the Foreign Legion has enough men and materiels to win against the combined forces of the French military if the legionnaires mutinied en mass.
The Legion consists of nine regiments and one battlegroup. Not enough troops to take on the rest of the Army but the Legion is commanded by French officers so a mutiny is unlikely.
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Post by Big Orange »

andrewgpaul wrote:I quite liked the fact that the old Cyberpunk 2020 RPG avoided this cliche. One 'security corporation' assassinated a member of the US government. The US then spent the next three months demonstrating that this was a very bad thing to do, and exterminated the corporation's entire worldwide payroll.
I like the idea of megacorporations not directly controlling the world per se, but the US Government rubbing out an entire megacorporation could not go down well with other megacorporations both domestic and foreign (it could invite other acts of assassination or sabotage, and the megacorps could suddenly pull out of vitally important contracts with US Government, likely going as far as selling military-industrial secrets to rogue third parties). Basically incurring a civil war and the US Government must be more heavily fucked up than in real life anyway if it allegedly casually killed every member of a business institution without due process or employing legal means such as just freezing assets.
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Post by Uraniun235 »

Yes and no; the impression I get from such fictional settings is that everyone prefers to maintain at least the superficial appearance of legitimacy, which directly attacking a government certainly undermines. It also makes business dealings that much messier and volatile, since now instead of attempting to entice the government and politicians with sweeter deals, contracts might now be decided based on "which corporation has more guns and is likelier to breach security and manage to put the hit on me?". It gets even worse when multiple corporations bidding on the same contract threaten committee members to choose them or else, and they follow through; now you've got politicians dying no matter who they chose. It is in nobody's interest that naked aggression against the 'legitimate' government of a major power be tolerated, because in the end it will be bad business for everyone.

I would also suggest that escalation against a government which was pissed enough to rub out an entire corporation is not necessarily in the best interests of any megacorp, since a major government can always ultimately win a cycle of escalation by sheer force of arms; sorry, but even the biggest corporation is going to take a massive stock hit (if not be fatally wounded) by their headquarters collapsing under the weight of airstrikes or going up in an atomic fireball. Granted, at that point things won't be going well for the government either, but at least it still exists. Granted, this might well trigger an escalation of armed response from other governments which ultimately leads into World War 3, but it's not like that's an implausible scenario either; nobody ever said governments had to be rational and reasonable.


EDIT: Also, "security corporation" is sort of vague, and doesn't necessarily denote that it's one of the elite handful that indirectly control the world; it could well be the equivalent of today's Blackwater.
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Post by Sidewinder »

Big Orange wrote:I like the idea of megacorporations not directly controlling the world per se, but the US Government rubbing out an entire megacorporation could not go down well with other megacorporations both domestic and foreign (it could invite other acts of assassination or sabotage, and the megacorps could suddenly pull out of vitally important contracts with US Government, likely going as far as selling military-industrial secrets to rogue third parties). Basically incurring a civil war and the US Government must be more heavily fucked up than in real life anyway if it allegedly casually killed every member of a business institution without due process or employing legal means such as just freezing assets.
Assuming the other mega-corporations decide to wage war-- the kind that involves soldiers shooting at each other-- instead of cooperating with the government to win government contracts and advantages over the unfortunate mega-corporation that ordered the assassination of a government official, what makes you think the mega-corporations can win? I've already calculated how many soldiers, tanks, fighter jets, and warships the US government can pay for by charging each citizen one dollar per day in taxes-- $110,612,520,000 per year, enough to pay the annual salaries of 6,457,994 soldiers, or buy 25,428 M1 tanks, or 803 F-22 Raptors, or 85 Zumwalt class destroyers. Can any mega-corporation, or alliance between multiple mega-corporations, match this?

And we haven't even mentioned "patriotism" or other reasons for people to fight, kill, and die for someone or something else. Can the CEO of Coca-Cola command the "I will die for you!" loyalty that Hitler enjoyed? Can Disney ask its consumers to fight, kill, and die for it, the way German citizens fought, killed, and died for their fatherland? I don't think so.
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
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Post by brianeyci »

Uraniun235 wrote:Yes and no; the impression I get from such fictional settings is that everyone prefers to maintain at least the superficial appearance of legitimacy, which directly attacking a government certainly undermines. It also makes business dealings that much messier and volatile, since now instead of attempting to entice the government and politicians with sweeter deals, contracts might now be decided based on "which corporation has more guns and is likelier to breach security and manage to put the hit on me?". It gets even worse when multiple corporations bidding on the same contract threaten committee members to choose them or else, and they follow through; now you've got politicians dying no matter who they chose. It is in nobody's interest that naked aggression against the 'legitimate' government of a major power be tolerated, because in the end it will be bad business for everyone.
Yeah I remember you talking about this when tuxedo brought up some RPG setting about corporations getting enough power to replace governments in some kind of medieval fiefdom with city states.

In the words of the Doctor, "He's just a businessman." If a military corporation had enough power to replace a national army, it would pull a John Lumic and just take over. If it didn't, it would be stupid to try and ultimately would fail. Either a coup d'etat happens and the security corporation becomes the government and national military, or it doesn't happen and the nationalists crush the corporation breaking the line, perhaps with the help of other corporations if it comes to that.
I would also suggest that escalation against a government which was pissed enough to rub out an entire corporation is not necessarily in the best interests of any megacorp, since a major government can always ultimately win a cycle of escalation by sheer force of arms; sorry, but even the biggest corporation is going to take a massive stock hit (if not be fatally wounded) by their headquarters collapsing under the weight of airstrikes or going up in an atomic fireball. Granted, at that point things won't be going well for the government either, but at least it still exists. Granted, this might well trigger an escalation of armed response from other governments which ultimately leads into World War 3, but it's not like that's an implausible scenario either; nobody ever said governments had to be rational and reasonable.

EDIT: Also, "security corporation" is sort of vague, and doesn't necessarily denote that it's one of the elite handful that indirectly control the world; it could well be the equivalent of today's Blackwater.
Well you can imagine something like this happening: a loose federal government, increasingly restricted by what laws can be passed and especially restricted in terms of tax which is the major advantage governments have over corporations (governments can force you to pay, and corporations have to convince you to buy their product.) This could happen through unrestrained democracy, with citizens tying politicians' hands and blindfolding them with propositions on ballots.

Rule by opinion polls, and nobody likes taxes so eventually raising taxes could be banned and perhaps taxes all together. With soaring inflation, tax could eventually become trivial and insufficient to pay the soldiers. There could be mass desertions. The national army consumes itself, a pittance of its former self with collapsing infrastructure and only the Presidential or Imperial guard reliable at all (since they're the only ones at this point who have anything to lose defending the old regime.)

The problem is obvious though: any situation which fucks up a government will fuck up a corporation.
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Post by Beowulf »

MS manage around $50 billion in revenue last year. Coke managed a bit less than that.
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Post by Sidewinder »

Beowulf wrote:MS manage around $50 billion in revenue last year. Coke managed a bit less than that.
Note that my hypothetical is of the US government collecting only one dollar per citizen per day. In actuality, the government collected $21.76 per citizen per day in 2007.
Wikipedia wrote:Total receipts
Receipts for fiscal year 2007 were $2,407 billion. FY2007 on-budget receipts were $1,798 billion. FY2007 off-budget receipts were $608 billion. Off-budget receipts include Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes, as well as the net profit or loss of the U.S. Postal Service.

* $1,163 billion - Individual income tax
* $869.6 billion - Social Security and other payroll taxes
* $370.2 billion - Corporate income tax
* $65.1 billion - Excise taxes
* $26.0 billion - Customs duties
* $26.0 billion - Estate and gift taxes
* $47.2 billion - Other
Source: preliminary FY2007 year-end estimate from the U.S. Treasury Dept.

The IRS estimated that there were about $345 billion in uncollected taxes, which is sometimes referred to as the "tax gap."
Now take the total number of soldiers, tanks, fighter jets, and warships I just calculated, and multiply the numbers by five. Can you name any corporation capable of matching that? And this is WITHOUT the US government raising taxes to pay for more soldiers, tanks, fighter jets, and warships.
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
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Post by alexholker »

Sidewinder wrote:Note that my hypothetical is of the US government collecting only one dollar per citizen per day. In actuality, the government collected $21.76 per citizen per day in 2007.
<SNIP>
The US is the "big fish" - being unable to match the world's sole superpower doesn't mean much unless you're planning on fighting against that superpower.
Shell apparently has made a profit of $26 billion in 2006. That's profit, not revenue, mind you. Wiki link That profit isn't enough to match the US military, but it isn't too bad compared to military spending by other countries like the United Kingdom:
Wiki link
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Post by brianeyci »

Big oil could.

The main problem isn't money. Either Sea Skimmer or someone else pointed out to me in a thread long ago that it isn't price gouging that makes military hardware difficult to produce, but difficulty in manufacturing. It doesn't matter if you have xxx billions if the stuff isn't sold.

Corporations are notoriously short sighted, and given the performance of CEO's in America I would say completely unsuited to compete with government. I laugh at people who say New Coke was some kind of insidious plot, and if they can't even manage that how the fuck can they manage a military? Research, education and even healthcare are out of their capabilities, unless said corporation specializes specifically in the area.

A modern standing loyal military is a logistical and scientific wonder. A container company would have the logistical expertise, but no experience with aviation. Coke would be so out of its depth making a motion picture or building houses, nevermind running a military. Stock holders will not like a company expanding into areas it has no expertise in and will not tolerate decades of losses. The corporate philosophy in cutting everything to the bone for short term profits is completely unsuited to the massive investment needed to produce researchers, productive citizens, and even soldiers.
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Even if a corporation could afford a decent military, it would never be able to make a profit from it, so it would never make such an investment. War is the most wasteful thing man can do, and keeping a military force ready to go to war is even more wasteful, hardly firm ground to start on. You can profit off war, but generally only if someone else pays for it. A cooperation that went to war would face all sorts of immediate sanctions and seizes of its assets, besides becoming a target its self.

War for a corporation would be nothing but a disaster as long as the modern system of nation-states exists.
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Post by eyl »

alexholker wrote:
Sidewinder wrote:Note that my hypothetical is of the US government collecting only one dollar per citizen per day. In actuality, the government collected $21.76 per citizen per day in 2007.
<SNIP>
The US is the "big fish" - being unable to match the world's sole superpower doesn't mean much unless you're planning on fighting against that superpower.
Shell apparently has made a profit of $26 billion in 2006. That's profit, not revenue, mind you. Wiki link That profit isn't enough to match the US military, but it isn't too bad compared to military spending by other countries like the United Kingdom:
Wiki link
The thing is, though, that Shell, Microsoft etc. have a permanent large market for their products - they can make that profit every year, because people need gas (or whatever product) all the time. Unless you're dealing with a situation where there is permanent war (and thus employment for the mercs) they're not going to be making much of a steady profit. Don't forget, also, that any heavy equipment they buy is going to be a large (and ongoing - operating and training on tanks, much less jet fighters, isn't cheap either) drain on their resources - and if they''re not continously using it, one which is hard to justify (after all, their end goal is profit). And since long wars tend to wreck the economy of the countries involved (Especially those on the losing end), their employer can't afford to hire them for long, further reducing their profit.

The only way I could see mercs becoming realistic is in a situation where the central authority dissolves completely, causing the country to become a patchwork of territories which are rich enough to afford mercs, but not enough for any advanced weaponry. In that situation, light weaponry* would be viable and the economy might be able to sustain mercs in the long term for things like garrison duty and raids.

*Including things like light APCs and heavy machine guns, for the sake of this argument
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