Iran recalling 40~ ambassadors...

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

General Brock
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1739
Joined: 2005-03-16 03:52pm
Location: Land of Resting Gophers, Canada

Post by General Brock »

tharkûn wrote:
Snort. Yup wasting lots of money on uneconomic power generation has been a real winning idea when it has been tried historicly.
Nuclear power is sold as clean and efficient. Reactors in the open air in the West and Russia have become money pits, though, because of long-term maintenance problems. They and their support facilities probably should have originally been placed in deep bunkers so that when the time comes to decomission them, just lock the door and fill the access corridors with concrete.
And when you have an arguement to put forward about why backing Iran would be in their neighbors best interests, get back to us.
The Middle Eastern saying translated as "Me and my brother against my cousin, my brother, cousin and I against the world" comes to mind. None of them really like Western imperialists come to do them the favour of ruling them for their own good.

Oh, look, Iran has an Export Development Bank.

http://edbi.org/en/news3.htm
Iran, Armenia ink seven cooperation deals

Iranian and Armenian economic delegates signed seven deals on energy cooperation between the two countries.

The other deals are related to mutual cooperation in the fields of power supply, the building of a wind farm in Armenia, procedure for customs agreement, financing the construction of a 40 kilometer gas pipeline and the third power transmission line in Armenia.
Export Development Bank of Iran (EDBI) and Armenian Sabir Co., are expected to finance the gas pipeline project in Armenia.

Iran-Iraq Trade Exchanges To Reach 3-4 Billion Dollars

The Iran-Iraq volume of trade exchanges is expected to reach between $3-4 billion annually because of the high economic potentials of the two countries, IRNA reported.

The Director General of the Iranian Export Development Bank said the Export Guarantee Fund of Iran (EGFI) and the Iraqi Trade Bank signed an agreement earlier this week, which lays down incentives for bolstering Iran-Iraq economic cooperation.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iranian banks will facilitate the opening of letters of credit for Iraqi tradesmen in Iranian banks.

The official added that trade exchanges between Iran and Iraq are set to undergo pivotal development with the help of their banking systems compared to mere border market transactions.

tharkûn wrote:
The unrest reaches across all social strata. Many of the most vocal dissidents are the university students who would happen to like little things; like human rights and real representative democracy.
That's kind of tough to pull here in the west, and we've been at it for a few hundred years and every now and then human rights and democracy become notwithstanding corperate interests, religious fanaticism, political corruption, and general ineptitude and stupidity.
Irrelevent. I said Iran is becoming dependent on Russia. Russia is supplying and will continue to supply the high technology needed to run its nuclear reactors (Iran simply lacks the facility to build many of these parts). Iranian arms for the foreseeable future will either be Russian built or crappy Chinese knockoffs of Russian arms. Politicly Iran is isolating itself from the EU over this very issue and has only Russia and China who might back it.
Iran wants to learn how. Russia needs hard currency. I'm sure they can work something out, and Russia won't be an overwhelmingly dominant partner.

The US can turn all the screws it wants; the world economy is so becoming so tightly interlinked that it would only be screwing itself.

Like that has stopped the US from doing so before. I refer you to WWII and Japan.
What are you talking about? The present world economy now is not reflective of 1939, and throughout WWII the US was victorious across Europe and the Pacific and benefitted from having its industrial and civillian infrastructres on US soil and safe from attack. They did not screw themselves by entering WWII against Japan, and none of their allies had a friendly stake in the Japanese empire.
The rest of the world can play along or watch their economies implode, I think I know the choice they would make.
Yes, hang the US out to dry at the earliest opportunity while saving their collective economies from manic unialteralist administrations who can't be counted upon to honour the simplest details of a free trade agreement on softwood lumber, let alone the principles international law and responsibility in warfare.

It just happens to be run by theocrats who like to call for the obliteration of the United States.
Did I miss a recent Guardian Council issuance of a Fatwa against the US? How about this guy:

http://www.ict.org.il/articles/fatwah.htm
Text of Fatwah Urging Jihad Against Americans

Published in Al-Quds al-'Arabi on Febuary 23, 1998

Statement signed by Sheikh Usamah Bin-Muhammad Bin-Ladin; Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of the Jihad Group in Egypt; Abu- Yasir Rifa'i Ahmad Taha, a leader of the Islamic Group; Sheikh Mir Hamzah, secretary of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Pakistan; and Fazlul Rahman, leader of the Jihad Movement in Bangladesh

Praise be to God, who revealed the Book, controls the clouds, defeats factionalism, and says in His Book "But when the forbidden months are past, then fight and slay the pagans wherever ye find them, seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them in every stratagem (of war)"; and peace be upon our Prophet, Muhammad Bin-'Abdallah, who said "I have been sent with the sword between my hands to ensure that no one but God is worshipped, God who put my livelihood under the shadow of my spear and who inflicts humiliation and scorn on those who disobey my orders." The Arabian Peninsula has never--since God made it flat, created its desert, and encircled it with seas--been stormed by any forces like the crusader armies now spreading in it like locusts, consuming its riches and destroying its plantations. All this is happening at a time when nations are attacking Muslims like people fighting over a plate of food. In the light of the grave situation and the lack of support, we and you are obliged to discuss current events, and we should all agree on how to settle the matter.

No one argues today about three facts that are known to everyone; we will list them, in order to remind everyone:

First, for over seven years the United States has been occupying the lands of Islam in the holiest of places, the Arabian Peninsula, plundering its riches, dictating to its rulers, humiliating its people, terrorizing its neighbors, and turning its bases in the Peninsula into a spearhead through which to fight the neighboring Muslim peoples.

If some people have formerly debated the fact of the occupation, all the people of the Peninsula have now acknowledged it.

The best proof of this is the Americans' continuing aggression against the Iraqi people using the Peninsula as a staging post, even though all its rulers are against their territories being used to that end, still they are helpless. Second, despite the great devastation inflicted on the Iraqi people by the crusader-Zionist alliance, and despite the huge number of those killed, in excess of 1 million... despite all this, the Americans are once against trying to repeat the horrific massacres, as though they are not content with the protracted blockade imposed after the ferocious war or the fragmentation and devastation.

So now they come to annihilate what is left of this people and to humiliate their Muslim neighbors.

Third, if the Americans' aims behind these wars are religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews' petty state and divert attention from its occupation of Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there.

The best proof of this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest neighboring Arab state, and their endeavor to fragment all the states of the region such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan into paper statelets and through their disunion and weakness to guarantee Israel's survival and the continuation of the brutal crusade occupation of the Peninsula.

All these crimes and sins committed by the Americans are a clear declaration of war on God, his messenger, and Muslims. And ulema have throughout Islamic history unanimously agreed that the jihad is an individual duty if the enemy destroys the Muslim countries. This was revealed by Imam Bin-Qadamah in "Al- Mughni," Imam al-Kisa'i in "Al- Bada'i," al-Qurtubi in his interpretation, and the shaykh of al-Islam in his books, where he said "As for the militant struggle, it is aimed at defending sanctity and religion, and it is a duty as agreed. Nothing is more sacred than belief except repulsing an enemy who is attacking religion and life."

On that basis, and in compliance with God's order, we issue the following fatwa to all Muslims

The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies--civilians and military--is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. This is in accordance with the words of Almighty God, "and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together," and "fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in God."

This is in addition to the words of Almighty God "And why should ye not fight in the cause of God and of those who, being weak, are ill-treated and oppressed--women and children, whose cry is 'Our Lord, rescue us from this town, whose people are oppressors; and raise for us from thee one who will help!'"

We -- with God's help -- call on every Muslim who believes in God and wishes to be rewarded to comply with God's order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan's U.S. troops and the devil's supporters allying with them, and to displace those who are behind them so that they may learn a lesson.

Almighty God said "O ye who believe, give your response to God and His Apostle, when He calleth you to that which will give you life. And know that God cometh between a man and his heart, and that it is He to whom ye shall all be gathered."

Almighty God also says "O ye who believe, what is the matter with you, that when ye are asked to go forth in the cause of God, ye cling so heavily to the earth! Do ye prefer the life of this world to the hereafter? But little is the comfort of this life, as compared with the hereafter. Unless ye go forth, He will punish you with a grievous penalty, and put others in your place; but Him ye would not harm in the least. For God hath power over all things."

Almighty God also says "So lose no heart, nor fall into despair. For ye must gain mastery if ye are true in faith."
Darn, I forgot, his verbosedness Osama Bin Laden is a rich Saudi Sheikh.

The example of the Iraqi Occupation is hardly going to convince the Iranian leaders the US is not the Great Satan, let alone that their own authoritarian methods are wrong. The theocrat's weren't making threats; the secular rep, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejadas, did, and secular leaders don't command religious authourity.
Iran never was contained. From the beginning Iran was making deals with Israel no less, if Iran weren't so mind numbingly stupid relations with the US would already be going back towards normalization.
Iran's mind-numbing stupidity arises from the fact that it is a theocracy founded on an ignorant religion... Never mind; my knee-jerk dislike of religion is not relevant here.

The Iranian people are quite bright, and perceive that US policy demands a level of submission and compliance unacceptable to their terms of Iranian independence. US sanctions included penalties for other sovereign nations that dealt with Iran, including buying its oil. Maybe Iran was never fully contained, but neither was it easy for them to participate openly in the world ecomomy.
Isfahan, Qom, etc. Iran may well survive a nuclear exchange with Israel. Severely weakened, but the country may not hit the rock bottomed envisioned in most US-USSR exchange scenarios.
The loss of major industrial and cultural centres, and educated elites, would mean the end of Iran as any kind of viable nation. Israel can count on a much more extensive diaspora to replace any losses.
You are a moron. Nukes are almost never "offensive" they allow you to undertake conventional actions with lesser risk of retaliation. Iran wouldn't need to nuke Azerbaijan, just march the army in and threaten to close Hormuz if anyone makes a huge deal out of it (which nuclear weaponry would allow it to do).
Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the only instances of real appled nuclear weaponry, and they were offensive strikes. You suggested the possible use of hypothetical Iranian nukes.

I don't think nukes allow a state like Iran to undertake conventional actions with lesser risk of retaliation. They might function more like a poison pill, a spoilsport in the event they are facing a pre-emptive nuclear strike, or losing a conventional fight against an invasion and need to negotiate something short of an unconditional surrender, and then, this will only work against targets they can reach, with weapons and delivery systems surviving to that point. Not a very good insurance policy.
In other words Allah receives many glorious new martyrs.
Most rulers let the peons do the dying, and the mullahs are no different. Martyrdom is not an ambition of the Iranian ruling elite. They are not walking around in their burial shrouds like the kids they sent to the front during the Iran-Iraq war.
Cut the sophistry crap. Iran bankrolls terrorists as defined by the people most likely to get upset and bomb Iran for funding these people. The semantics games are irrelevent to the fact that Iran is seeking proxy conflict with those most likely not to trust Iranian declarations of peaceful nuclear intent and most likely to bomb Iran. It is confrontational, deal with it.
Iran's differnces with Israel began well before Iran implemented its nuclear program. The entire Islamic world was upset with the establishment of Israel on Arab land, and the fact that the crusader state is called Israel instead of Outreamer and colonized with European Jews rather than Christians dosen't mean much to them at gut level.
No really? Are you going to tell me water is wet next? Of course the Supreme Leader or other nutcase on top will do the foisting, that still doesn't mean that Iran has many people in a position of authority who may well think mass matyrdom is good thing.
The supreme nutcase leader in this case would have to be el Shrub; if the US attacks, the Iranians will martyr themselves as effectively as they can for as long as they can. Their period of formal resistance in uniform might last a little longer than Iraq, after which they will don civvies to use IEDs and make dynamite fashion statements. Unlike Iraq, the Iranians do not have significant minorities who want their own state. They are the heirs of what was once the core of the Persian Empire, and they will fight more fiercely and effectivley than the Sunni Iraqis, heirs to a scribble of Western imperialist mapmakers.

BTW:

http://journals.aol.com/bloomingtoncp/news/entries/2092

The Iraq war is over, and the winner is... Iran
Hamstrung by the Iraq debacle, all Bush can do is gnash his teeth as the
hated mullahs in Iran cozy up to their co-religionists in Iraq.

- - - - - - - - - - - -
By Juan Cole
...

The Iranians hold a powerful hand in the Iraqi poker game. They have geopolitical advantages, are flush with petroleum profits because of the high price of oil, and have much to offer their new Shiite Iraqi partners. Their long alliance with Iraqi president Jalal Talabani gives them Kurdish support as well. Bush's invasion removed the most powerful and dangerous regional enemy of Iran, Saddam Hussein, from power. In its aftermath, the religious Shiites came to power at the ballot box in Iraq, bestowing on Tehran firm allies in Baghdad for the first time since the 1950s. And in a historic irony, Iran's most dangerous enemy of all, the United States, invaded Iran's neighbor with an eye to eventually toppling the Tehran regime -- but succeeded only in defeating itself.
Iranians won't be alone in this martyring party.
Such weak rates of growth under the best oil market in literally decades clearly show Iran's economic failings.
They are growing, though, in a controlled manner more like China under Deng than Russia under Yeltsin. They fear the cultural changes that come with explosive economic growth, the bad things like urban alienation and bureaucratic and political corruption and independent elites using newfound economic power to benefit themselves before the state or old guard ruling elite.
The tanker war endangered a far greater proportion of the world's oil supply than when Saddam rolled into Kuwait. Sinking neutral ships in neutral waters tends to be an act of war.
They obviously had the connections and clout to get away with it.
Because arming to the teeth is meaningless. If they present a conventional target the USAF can destroy them.
That must be why Iran isn't seriously preparing for a fight. Trash talking Israel and the US to the media, yet not making preparations to defend themselves obviously means they have decided on using other means. Perhaps Bush should stop trying to make a case for using a weapons he can't use against weapons he can't find and develop a more effective and constructive policy for Iran. Simply keeping his mouth shut during the Iranian election might have given the Iranian moderates a better chance against the conservatives.
Trenches just make it easier to napalm the defenders to death. Tanks and AA guns are little more than signs saying "drop bombs here". AK chicks aren't useful until the enemy actually gets in country and then you kinda want them to be irregular fighters who can blend in with the civillians.
Well, if Iran isn't posturing for war, maybe the Bush administration should stop their chickenhawk cha-cha; it looks stupid.
Because many of them have been infiltrated, killed, or dismembered. Syria doesn't do as much state sponsorship, so much as the Syrian border is porous as hell and central government control of the border sucks arse.
If Iran's proxy warriors are contained, then Iran is left with only peaceful means to ensure the continuation of its regime.
In real terms Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world.
If their proxies are all dead or in hiding, who are they sponsoring? Al Qaeda isn't Iranian in origin.
Evidence, let's see the numbers.
Rising GDP, regular elections, a restive electorate debating issues with mullas who don't shoot first, all indicate a nascent democracy under authoritarian leaders enough of whom care enough about their country to let the process take place.
Evidence, let's see the numbers.
Rising public debt? The number of anti-democratic measures in the Home Security act? The number of privacy-rights violations desired by the Bush administration? The number of human rights violations committed against the numbers of innocent people they carelessly labelled a terrorist? The numbers of illegal immigrants with no stake in the American way of life gaining social legitimacy and power because the desire for cheap labour outstrips any sense of national pride, law and security? I could Google all night.
They happen to be a joke for a large body of the Iranian public who made a precipitious decline in turnout.
They boycotted an election? How unusual. Like that could never happen in the west. Until the last election, voter turnout in the United States was nothing to brag about, and that was due to apathy and ignorance, not protest.
Because Khatami was term limited and all his successors were barred from running.
They are also all still alive and working at promoting political reform. Parliamentry delegates are the showmen of the political process. For most, the primary concern is getting elected, and interfacing with constituents, not researching and formulating policy.
It may be discouraging that the Guardian Council disqualified some 2400 of 8000 candidates, but that did not impact on the final result; the people wanted a more conservative regime.

Awful hard to tell when virtually every major reformer seeking to run was kicked off the ballot.
Replacement reform candidates apparently did not make the cut
Who in hell were these?
The Iranian parliament isn't missing sitting members. The Guardian Council can deny a candidate, but apparently can't name their own candiates in replacement. The reformers therefore lost on their platform, not because they couldn't field a reformer. Not a whole lot different in principle than the US electoral college or Canadian senate, which in their day were bodies intended to thwart the wrong-minded decisions of the commoners.
I see we read the official party line, not look at the turnout numbers and voter intimidation.
A closed ballot; who can say who voted for whom? Voters more likley boycotted, and were not intimidated. This 'official party line' was repeated in Western news services, with some additionally reporting that Bush's election-eve denunciation of the election probably swayed votes away from reformers.
Ain't it wonderful having a government monopoly on news, all the demonstrations don't have to be covered and the opposition can't go mud-slinging, because hey we can just close down the presses.
The people always seem to know what is really going on and not media illusions, when they are forced to develop their own grapevine. They may not know as much aboout the outside world, but their own internal issues become less of a mystery.
Unless of course Iran has yet more undeclared facilities, like Natanz and all the other facilities they only declared after being "outed" by an opposition group (the same group which maintains they are pursueing nukes BTW).
As if nuclear research facilities can be constructed just anywhere at any time in complete secrecy anymore. I trust the IAEA to know what it is doing.
General Brock
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1739
Joined: 2005-03-16 03:52pm
Location: Land of Resting Gophers, Canada

Post by General Brock »

tharkûn wrote:
After the fastie the Bush administration pulled in Iraq, it is safe to assume the UN security council won't allow itself to be trapped into laying seige to Iran the way they were in Iraq; the member countries don't want to be shut out of the world's largest oil reserves, which they can gain access to more easily in direct dealing with a free Iranian nation state rather than one liberated by US occupation forces.

I'm sure somewhere in there you had a point and weren't just rambling about opinions coming straight from your ass, damned if I can see it though.
The reconstruction of Iraq and parcelling out of its wealth is a clubby US affair. For all the talk that this was the wealth of Iraq, the Americans were quite clear that coalition partners and themselves in particular had earned first crack at the spoils of war. Russia, France and others ceded sweetheart deals worked out under Saddam to explore for oil, and had to forgive billions in debt. Most projects could not proceed at all because of UN sanctions. They won't repeat this mistake in Iran and will keep their options open, and US interests will be scrutinized with a much more cynical eye from here on in.

Bush asks Europe to forgive Iraq debt
By David Sanger, Douglas Jehl
Washington
December 12, 2003

US President George Bush yesterday called the leaders of France, Germany and Russia to ask them to forgive Iraq's debts - just a day after the Pentagon excluded them from bidding for Iraqi reconstruction projects.

White House officials were fuming about the timing and tone of the Pentagon's directive, even though they had approved the policy of limiting contracts to the 63 countries, including Australia, that gave the US political or military aid in Iraq. Many countries excluded from the list, including close allies such as Canada, were angry at the Pentagon action. They were incensed, in part, by the Pentagon's explanation that the restrictions were required "for the protection of the essential security interests of the United States".

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov, when asked about the decision, ruled out any debt write-off for Iraq.

White House officials said Mr Bush and his aides had been surprised by the timing and blunt wording of the Pentagon's declaration, relating to contracts for $US18 billion ($A24.3 billion) in reconstruction work.

But they said the White House had approved the policy, after a committee of officials agreed that the most lucrative contracts must be reserved for political or military supporters.

Those officials apparently did not realise that the Pentagon memorandum, signed by Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, would appear on a Defence Department website hours before Mr Bush was scheduled to ask world leaders to receive James Baker, the envoy heading the effort to wipe out Iraq's $125 million debt.

Several of Mr Bush's aides - speaking on condition of anonymity - said they feared the memorandum would undercut White House efforts to repair relations with traditional allies who opposed the invasion.

White House officials declined to say how Mr Bush explained the Pentagon policy to Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Jacques Chirac and Germany's Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. France and Russia were two of the largest creditors of the former Iraqi regime.

A senior Administration official described Mr Bush as "distinctly unhappy" about dealing with foreign leaders who had just learned of their exclusion from the contracts.

The decision suggested Mr Bush was in no mood to forgive allies who opposed the war and thwarted his effort to gain UN backing to invade Iraq, but would like to cash in on the aftermath.

The European Union's governing commission said it would investigate whether the US decision violated world trade rules. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan suggested it was a divisive move. Canada also protested.

Asked what a country would need to do to become a coalition member and eligible for the contracts, Pentagon spokesman Lawrence Di Rita said: "Countries that want to stand up publicly and say 'I'm in this coalition', we welcome. And if they did that, they would presumably be on this list."

- New York Times, Reuters

This story was found at: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/ ... 90331.html

Creditors to forgive 80% of Iraq debt

Saturday 20 November 2004 12:04 PM GMT

The debt is tied to the International Monetary Fund

Germany's finance minister has said that he and his US counterpart have reached an agreement under which Iraq's creditors would write off up to 80% of the war-ravaged country's debt.

"I had talks with my American colleague, John Snow, which created the basis on which the forgiveness of Iraqi debt can be settled mutually in the Paris Club" of creditor nations, Hans Eichel told reporters on Saturday on the sidelines of a meeting of ministers from the Group of 20 major economies.

"We agreed that there should be a write-off of debts in several stages amounting to 80% in total," Eichel said.

Thirty percent would be written off immediately, another 30% in a second stage "tied to a programme of the International Monetary Fund" and a further 20% linked to the success of this programme," he said.

"Within this framework, the necessary decisions can now be taken in the Paris Club," Eichel said. He did not say when the debt write-off would be formally approved and took no questions.

You can find this article at:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/ ... 65D185.htm

According to the Wikipedia, the permanent member-nations of the Paris Club are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Storm over US contract ban widens

...

It has also drawn denunciations from rejected countries - such as France, Russia and Germany - and from the European Union's foreign affairs chief.

But US President George Bush defended the move, saying contracts should go to countries that risked lives in Iraq.

...
The announcement by Washington bars opponents of the war in Iraq from bidding for American-financed Iraqi projects worth a total of $18bn.

The move was also sharply criticised by European Union External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten.

"This is a gratuitous and extremely unhelpful decision at a time when there is a general recognition of the need for the international community to work together for stability and reconstruction in Iraq," he said.

Mr Schroeder - along with Presidents Jacques Chirac of France and Vladimir Putin of Russia - raised the contracting issue during telephone calls with US President George W Bush on Wednesday.

In Canada - a country that also opposed the war - outgoing Prime Minister Jean Chretien said Mr Bush had assured him that Canadian firms would be allowed to bid for reconstruction contracts.

"He wished me good luck and thanked me for Canada's effort in Afghanistan and for the assistance to Iraq," said Mr Chretien, who retires on Friday.

...
In Washington, Mr Bush rejected the criticism.

"The US people understand why it makes sense for countries that risked lives to participate in the contracts in Iraq," he said.

The White House has made clear the ban was not up for reconsideration - although it has said the administration "will welcome the opportunity to talk to them and explain to them about why this decision was made".

The US Defense Department, for its part, said the move was not a punishment and the list of those eligible was not closed or fixed.

Pentagon spokesman Larry Di Rita said it was hoped more countries might consider joining the US-led coalition.

A total of 26 contracts - covering areas such as oil, power, communications and housing - are on offer to firms from the US, Iraq and countries involved in the coalition effort.

The ban applies only to prime contracts - not subcontracts.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/a ... 310935.stm

Published: 2003/12/11 18:04:35 GMT

© BBC MMV

http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oi ... 2heart.htm
...
After nationalization, the Iraqis sought to gain greater control of their oil resources. They shunned the UK and US companies, while developing working relationships with French companies and the (Soviet) Russian government.. Just before the Gulf War (1990-91), Japanese companies negotiated for production-sharing contracts in Iraq and were said to have concluded a deal for the Majnoun field, but that deal collapsed due to the US-led war and the subsequent sanctions. During the 1990s, various firms negotiated with the Iraqis in hopes of gaining access to Iraqi oil once the sanctions were lifted. Shell, and possibly other US-UK companies held secret talks that did not succeed. In 1997 TotalFinaElf, China National Oil Company, and Lukoil of Russia signed agreements with the Iraqis for deals worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Lukoil?s deal concerned development of the West Qurna field, while TotalFinaElf obtained rights to Majnoun and China Nations to North Rumailah (the latter is the huge field that lies astride the border with Kuwait). A number of smaller companies, mostly Russian but also from Malaysia and other countries, got contracts at about this time.

The US-UK companies, keen to regain their former dominance in Iraq, fear that they would lose their leading role in the world oil industry if these contracts with their competitors come to fruition. France and Russia pose the biggest threat, but serious competitors from China, Germany, Italy and Japan also are players in this sweepstakes. China is especially keen to gain a stake in the region?s oil reserves because its rapid economic growth is pushing up its oil consumption. Chinese economists estimate that China may have to import as much as 5.5 million barrels a day from the Gulf by 2020.

The US-UK companies strongly favored the sanctions, as a means to hold their competitors at bay (and hold down excess production on the world market), but weakening sanctions in the late 1990s threatened their future prosperity. The companies are nervous but enthusiastic about Washington?s war option, for it seems to be the only means left to oust their rivals and establish a dominant presence in the fabulously profitable future of Iraq oil production.

...

In December, 1996, Gaz de France and ENI of Italy formed a consortium to build a pipeline from the Iraqi fields to Turkey, a project that could eventually link up with the European gas grid. But because of the UN sanctions against Iraq, this project could not proceed. In post-war Iraq, the big US-UK companies will seek gas production and transport deals along with oil deals, in hopes of snatching these lucrative prospects away from continental European competitors. Other pipeline projects, to bring gas from Qatar and other Gulf states through Iraq to the European market, are also under study and offer huge profits to whichever companies get permission to build them.
If the Europeans entertained the cynical view of US interests in 1990 they presently hold, in 2005, UNSC resolutions imposing sanctions against Iraq never would have passed the way they were. Expecting them to lock themselves out of Iran is extremely unrealistic given the cheating that went on anyway throughout the post Gulf War seige; a seige is what the sanctions ended up functioning as, weakening Iraq by 500 000 children as well as making it an easy military target.

American neocons may think themselves clever for cashing in on an Anglo American alliance against continental European naivette, but the trust and goodwill they squandered can't be rebuilt. Or, maybe not. Maybe Europeans are rubes who can't keep their eye on the prize. They allowed Neocon and Iraq War architect Paul Wolfowitz to become World Bank president, and the Iran file surely must be prominant in his 'in' box.
tharkûn
Tireless defender of wealthy businessmen
Posts: 2806
Joined: 2002-07-08 10:03pm

Post by tharkûn »

Brock is too stupid to dress his links <<snip useless crap>>

Oh, look, Iran has an electrical grid. Connected to a nuclear power plant.
Oh look totally a strawman. I said Iran lacked the infrastructure to make large scale electricity exports. Yes they have an electrical grid, what is its capacity? How fast can it adjust load? How reliable is it? What type of maintainance does it require? How much electricity is lost to resistance?
Yet again Brock is a moron <<snip useless crap>>
Heavens me, they export the stuff. And they have an existing line into Iraq, of all places.
Heavens me they export less than 1% of their current power production and a very small amount to their neighbors. Here's a hint countries that due make money off electricity export quantify it in terawatt/hours.
They import electricity from their neighbors, who will not be happy if their client gets bombed to hel. And look, Iran exports to Pakistan.
Let's optimisticly say they make 10 cents a kWh (idiotic but I can't be assed to see if they even make 2 cents a kWh) Call it 120,000 dollars worth of electricity, the US will can afford to write that check for less than a single cruise missile.

Nuclear power is sold as clean and efficient. Reactors in the open air in the West and Russia have become money pits, though, because of long-term maintenance problems. They and their support facilities probably should have originally been placed in deep bunkers so that when the time comes to decomission them, just lock the door and fill the access corridors with concrete.
BS. There are no open air reactors in the West, these structures known as containment domes are mandatory. And frankly you are a dumbass. If you seal off nuclear waste with concrete the radioisotopic heat will crack the concrete and will eventually make its way out into the environment (this is why nuclear waste tends to get vitrified). Putting them in deep bunkers also risks ground water contamination. Yucca mountain sits in the midst of a giant bloody desert, has its waste encased in glass and ceramics, and has a massive titanium water barrier for a reason. Just filling in an old nuclear plant violates so many IAEA standards it's a joke.


The Middle Eastern saying translated as "Me and my brother against my cousin, my brother, cousin and I against the world" comes to mind. None of them really like Western imperialists come to do them the favour of ruling them for their own good.
Right we are supposed to ignore real boundary disputes, Iranian rhetoric that they will kill some of these countries leaders (i.e. Jordan) all because you have a nice little proverb to which I can cite counter examples dating back a thousand years (including during the bloody Crusades)?

This isn't English class, you don't get to dismiss a geopolitic concerns with a nice sounding proverb.
Oh, look, Iran has an Export Development Bank.
Wow it has a fund easily surpassed by the development funding any one of the major US oil companies dumps into the region. Color me unimpressed. When Iran manages something remotely close to the significance of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline let me know.
That's kind of tough to pull here in the west, and we've been at it for a few hundred years and every now and then human rights and democracy become notwithstanding corperate interests, religious fanaticism, political corruption, and general ineptitude and stupidity.
In many respects Iranian human rights are far worse than Jordanian or Iraqi which have had far less time to develop.
Iran wants to learn how. Russia needs hard currency. I'm sure they can work something out, and Russia won't be an overwhelmingly dominant partner.
Right Bush is evil and looking for a reason to nuke Tehran. Putin is going to train Iran to be self-sufficient rather than maintain them as a perpetual client and steady source of hard currency. Russia is an overwhelming dominant partner, very nations in the world would it not dominate in such a partnership.
What are you talking about?
Prior to the Day of Infamy the US cut off exports of several key goods: oil, rubber, and scrap iron key among them. This was an extremely expensive proposition which hurt the US economicly. It also did not stop the US from doing it. When push comes to shove the US has the most closed economy on the planet and it is more than willing to sustain economicly harmful policies if it feels them warranted (see Cuba and Libya for current examples).

The example of the Iraqi Occupation is hardly going to convince the Iranian leaders the US is not the Great Satan, let alone that their own authoritarian methods are wrong. The theocrat's weren't making threats; the secular rep, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejadas, did, and secular leaders don't command religious authourity.
Ahmadinejad is backed by the Basij and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, he was also supported by the theocratic Abadgaran (though that bastion of theocracy was split between him and another in the first round). It doesn't take a black turban to be a theocrat.
The Iranian people are quite bright, and perceive that US policy demands a level of submission and compliance unacceptable to their terms of Iranian independence. US sanctions included penalties for other sovereign nations that dealt with Iran, including buying its oil. Maybe Iran was never fully contained, but neither was it easy for them to participate openly in the world ecomomy.
The whole "aren't bloody purges fun", "nationalize foreign business", and "aren't human waves fun" have far more to do with it. In any event nothing prevented Iran from doing business with the Soviet Bloc or any firm that was based there or among the non-aligned states which didn't also do business in the states.
The loss of major industrial and cultural centres, and educated elites, would mean the end of Iran as any kind of viable nation. Israel can count on a much more extensive diaspora to replace any losses.
Israel is far smaller and denser. In the event of a nuclear strike they die and the resulting radiation (both real and feared) deter any possible diaspora migration in response (besides which immigration to Israel by diaspora Jews seems to be leveling off).
Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the only instances of real appled nuclear weaponry, and they were offensive strikes. You suggested the possible use of hypothetical Iranian nukes.
Using ones nukes can be as simple as letting them be the elephant in the negotiating room. The truth is Iran's president publicly calls for the obliteration of Israel, you decide to simply ignore that. The truth is Iran is run by religious whackaloons who have done such wonderfully sane things as banning dogs, dog walking, etc. The garuntee that the big red button won't be under the finger of a religious whackaloon simply cannot be assumed.

Even if we ignore the very real possibility of the Supreme Leader going off the deep end, internal coup by the hardliners, etc. Giving Iran more options is a bad thing. If a nuclear Iran closes the straights of Hormuz what exactly do you do? Open them in the hopes that they won't lob a nuke in response?
I don't think nukes allow a state like Iran to undertake conventional actions with lesser risk of retaliation. They might function more like a poison pill, a spoilsport in the event they are facing a pre-emptive nuclear strike, or losing a conventional fight against an invasion and need to negotiate something short of an unconditional surrender, and then, this will only work against targets they can reach, with weapons and delivery systems surviving to that point. Not a very good insurance policy.
That's right you don't think. I've read far better nuclear strategy from far more qualified minds. Having nuclear weapons raises the ante for conventional intervention. If you don't like that take it up with RAND, etc.
Most rulers let the peons do the dying, and the mullahs are no different. Martyrdom is not an ambition of the Iranian ruling elite. They are not walking around in their burial shrouds like the kids they sent to the front during the Iran-Iraq war.
So they sit out the exchange in an undisclosed bunker in the mountains. That changes the situation how? If they are willing to accept mass martyrdom of the peons it won't matter.
Iran's differnces with Israel began well before Iran implemented its nuclear program. The entire Islamic world was upset with the establishment of Israel on Arab land, and the fact that the crusader state is called Israel instead of Outreamer and colonized with European Jews rather than Christians dosen't mean much to them at gut level.
Ohh look another red herring. Why Iran is being confrontational doesn't matter. The fact that it chooses to bankroll groups that its enemies find to be terrorists is confrontational. Deal with it. Preferably honestly without strawmanning or using red herrings, but I know that is difficult for a dishonest debater like you.
The supreme nutcase leader in this case would have to be el Shrub; if the US attacks, the Iranians will martyr themselves as effectively as they can for as long as they can. Their period of formal resistance in uniform might last a little longer than Iraq, after which they will don civvies to use IEDs and make dynamite fashion statements. Unlike Iraq, the Iranians do not have significant minorities who want their own state. They are the heirs of what was once the core of the Persian Empire, and they will fight more fiercely and effectivley than the Sunni Iraqis, heirs to a scribble of Western imperialist mapmakers.
Which is why no one is contemplating goin in on the ground. The B-2s alone can destroy the Iranian nuclear program. The B-2s, F-117s, and F-22s can destroy Iranian air defenses. The US need not set foot on the ground to trash Iran, which it need not do merely to disarm Iran.
They are growing, though, in a controlled manner more like China under Deng than Russia under Yeltsin.
Snort. Their unemployment makes a lie of that statement, it has resisted all government control and continues to drain Iranian coffers. Looking at the actual GDP growth it shows remarkable correlation to world oil price and much less to Iranian economic policy. Iranian growth is not controlled.
They obviously had the connections and clout to get away with it.
:roll: You do realize you are contradicting yourself as this is the time period in which you claimed Iran was contained and isolated? Both cannot be true.

That must be why Iran isn't seriously preparing for a fight. Trash talking Israel and the US to the media, yet not making preparations to defend themselves obviously means they have decided on using other means. Perhaps Bush should stop trying to make a case for using a weapons he can't use against weapons he can't find and develop a more effective and constructive policy for Iran. Simply keeping his mouth shut during the Iranian election might have given the Iranian moderates a better chance against the conservatives.
Over a 1,000 candidates registered to run for president. 7 were allowed to do so with many front line reformers being excluded. Of those who did run both the #2 and #3 candidates have publicly stated there was endemic fraud, intimidation, and violations of electoral law. The outgoing president also noted similar sentiments.

The Iranian moderates had no reasonable chance in the light of the problems already witnessed.
Well, if Iran isn't posturing for war
:roll: How do you manage to breath without your brain going catatonic from over exertion? You noted Iran isn't digging trenches, etc. which is quite right; they happen to not be as tacticly ignorant as you and know that such defenses will not stop the American war machine. If they are preparing for war the number one imperative is security which means said preperations won't be making the news.
If Iran's proxy warriors are contained, then Iran is left with only peaceful means to ensure the continuation of its regime.
Replacing lost capabilities is expensive and resource intensive. Just because things are quiet now, hell let's even say its an official hudna, doesn't mean the money and support isn't flowing in (like say the intelligence agencies claim).
If their proxies are all dead or in hiding, who are they sponsoring?
The next batch of recruits. Read some Mao and the bloody Koran, times of calm, strategic retreat, and hudna are all endorsed.
They boycotted an election? How unusual. Like that could never happen in the west.
Yeah but when one side uses paramilitaries to intimidate the other in the west we tend to look askance at it.


They are also all still alive and working at promoting political reform. Parliamentry delegates are the showmen of the political process. For most, the primary concern is getting elected, and interfacing with constituents, not researching and formulating policy.
In other words the policy makers are the theocrats who rigged the rules and we should hence work from that premise until the reformers manage to get some power to change policy.
The Iranian parliament isn't missing sitting members.
:roll: You can't be THAT dumb.

The Guardian Council can deny a candidate, but apparently can't name their own candiates in replacement.
Only pro forma. As long as they have enough supporters in the country to fill out the seats (trivial) they can merely deny all others.
The reformers therefore lost on their platform, not because they couldn't field a reformer.
BS. The gaurdian council threw out over 99% of the candidates for president. In the end Rafsanjani, the man the reformer Khatami replaced, ended up being the closest thing to a serious reform candidate in the race.
A closed ballot; who can say who voted for whom? Voters more likley boycotted, and were not intimidated. This 'official party line' was repeated in Western news services, with some additionally reporting that Bush's election-eve denunciation of the election probably swayed votes away from reformers.
Right and the armed Basij in the streets did nothing? The out going president, the winner of the first round of voting, and other presidential candidates all cited intimidation. I trust their opinion far more than yours.

When it was reported by Western news services they did the stock "and official Iranian sources say, 'It was a perfect election' " bit. Merely quoting a lie does not make it true.

The people always seem to know what is really going on and not media illusions, when they are forced to develop their own grapevine. They may not know as much aboout the outside world, but their own internal issues become less of a mystery.
Why yes playing a grand game of Telephone is a wonderful way to get accurate news :roll:
As if nuclear research facilities can be constructed just anywhere at any time in complete secrecy anymore. I trust the IAEA to know what it is doing.
They were. The IAEA is either lying through its teeth or it had no idea that Natanz even existed (that is their official stance). So either you trust someone you beleive lied to you or they could be built in secrecy, which is your position again?
The reconstruction of Iraq and parcelling out of its wealth is a clubby US affair. For all the talk that this was the wealth of Iraq, the Americans were quite clear that coalition partners and themselves in particular had earned first crack at the spoils of war. Russia, France and others ceded sweetheart deals worked out under Saddam to explore for oil, and had to forgive billions in debt. Most projects could not proceed at all because of UN sanctions. They won't repeat this mistake in Iran and will keep their options open, and US interests will be scrutinized with a much more cynical eye from here on in.
The US has dumped billions INTO Iraq. France, Russia, etc. had the choice of forgiving Iraqi debt or having it repudiated (which both France and Russia have done themselves).

So your point was just another example of vague ramblings illustrating your ignorance?
Very funny, Scotty. Now beam down my clothes.
General Brock
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1739
Joined: 2005-03-16 03:52pm
Location: Land of Resting Gophers, Canada

Post by General Brock »

tharkûn wrote:

Quote:
Oh look totally a strawman. I said Iran lacked the infrastructure to make large scale electricity exports. Yes they have an electrical grid, what is its capacity? How fast can it adjust load? How reliable is it? What type of maintainance does it require? How much electricity is lost to resistance?
No idea, although I assume they can and have plans to expand their electrical grid to meet future demand.
Yet again Brock is a moron <<snip useless crap>>

Heavens me they export less than 1% of their current power production and a very small amount to their neighbors. Here's a hint countries that due make money off electricity export quantify it in terawatt/hours.

Let's optimisticly say they make 10 cents a kWh (idiotic but I can't be assed to see if they even make 2 cents a kWh) Call it 120,000 dollars worth of electricity, the US will can afford to write that check for less than a single cruise missile.
They need electrical power themselves, they want to be able to export, they are laying the groundwork to do so and this includes nuclear power generation. As far as energy security goes, they seem to want to cover all their bases for production.
BS. There are no open air reactors in the West, these structures known as containment domes are mandatory. And frankly you are a dumbass. If you seal off nuclear waste with concrete the radioisotopic heat will crack the concrete and will eventually make its way out into the environment (this is why nuclear waste tends to get vitrified). Putting them in deep bunkers also risks ground water contamination. Yucca mountain sits in the midst of a giant bloody desert, has its waste encased in glass and ceramics, and has a massive titanium water barrier for a reason. Just filling in an old nuclear plant violates so many IAEA standards it's a joke.
Fortunately, I didn't claim to be an expert in nuclear power storage. Some long-term nuclear waste storage facilities proposed for design in the West are concrete-reinforced shells that are essentially bunkers. I don't know the details of their internal construction any more that I do of Iran's facilities. Iranian bunkers were inspected by the IAEA, who would have been looking at their quality as well as for weapons, and they passed.
Right we are supposed to ignore real boundary disputes, Iranian rhetoric that they will kill some of these countries leaders (i.e. Jordan) all because you have a nice little proverb to which I can cite counter examples dating back a thousand years (including during the bloody Crusades)?

This isn't English class, you don't get to dismiss a geopolitic concerns with a nice sounding proverb.
Reality is Iran can't back their threats, while the US can and is spoiling to start an unnecessary fight to meet its perceived needs, or rather, those of powerful of elites who happen to be in charge right now. Furthermore, they are doing so without regard to geopolitical reality; other nation states benefit from Iran being left alone to sell oil to them.

America/Israel bashing is the PC thing in Iran. Still, the Iranian people are beginning to understand that they can't let their own government use this as an excuse for its own social failings, and they are starting to doubt the mullahs. Secular ideas on science, technology, and economics visibly improves their quality of life.

Bush's blustering is distracting them from this very important introspection, inspiring fear, anger and nationalist reactionism in its place. That is not a realistic policy for peace, but an attempt to force a war to gain a level of access to Iranian resources highly unlikley to happen any other way.
Wow it has a fund easily surpassed by the development funding any one of the major US oil companies dumps into the region. Color me unimpressed. When Iran manages something remotely close to the significance of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline let me know.
The point is, Iran dosen't want to do business with the US any more than they have to, possibly neither do many other states in the region, and the means to ignore American financial power is being developed.
In many respects Iranian human rights are far worse than Jordanian or Iraqi which have had far less time to develop.
Iranian human rights are worse than a lot of places, but better than what Iraqis enjoy, except perhaps those well within Kurdish or Shia controlled territory. At least the Iranians are free to work it out from within, under their own system, and earning those freedoms will mean more as they acheive them.
Right Bush is evil and looking for a reason to nuke Tehran. Putin is going to train Iran to be self-sufficient rather than maintain them as a perpetual client and steady source of hard currency. Russia is an overwhelming dominant partner, very nations in the world would it not dominate in such a partnership.
Russia has a lot of concerns; dominating Iran is probably on the list, but below subduing Chechnya and a whole lot of other problems. Keeping the US out of all that Iranian fossil fuel, though, is probably a bit higher and can be acheived without domination for the time being.

El Shrub fits any Saturday morning cartoon vision of slimy villany, and evil would is an inaccurate descriptor for lying warmongers. Most people prefer to view him as merely incompetant, as that makes his prescence in the Oval Office less embarassing.
Prior to the Day of Infamy the US cut off exports of several key goods: oil, rubber, and scrap iron key among them. This was an extremely expensive proposition which hurt the US economicly. It also did not stop the US from doing it. When push comes to shove the US has the most closed economy on the planet and it is more than willing to sustain economicly harmful policies if it feels them warranted (see Cuba and Libya for current examples).
Libya and Cuba could disappear from the face of the earth and that would not harm the US economically. The best way to contain the Japanese war machine was to deprive Japan of the raw resources they needed to sustain it. Japan was their rival in the Pacific. Japan tried to militarily acquire China's resources; the US wanted access too, but by more peaceful means.
Ahmadinejad is backed by the Basij and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, he was also supported by the theocratic Abadgaran (though that bastion of theocracy was split between him and another in the first round). It doesn't take a black turban to be a theocrat.
Read the Ahmadinejad bio at globalsecurity.org; quite an adventurer. He's not a cleric like Rafsanjani; a civil engineer lacks the religious credentials to send Islamic militants the world over to do battle with America. In a sense, just the right person to be vent Iranian spleen, without actually requiring commitment from the pious.
The whole "aren't bloody purges fun", "nationalize foreign business", and "aren't human waves fun" have far more to do with it. In any event nothing prevented Iran from doing business with the Soviet Bloc or any firm that was based there or among the non-aligned states which didn't also do business in the states.
Going to war with them will not improve matters for anyone, including the US. Iran is not as radical as it once was. Dangerous, religiously idiotlogical, certainly. Worth attacking over that, no, not while other means are available, and certainly not under the present administration which has a proven record of making bad situations even worse.
Israel is far smaller and denser. In the event of a nuclear strike they die and the resulting radiation (both real and feared) deter any possible diaspora migration in response (besides which immigration to Israel by diaspora Jews seems to be leveling off).
Persians, on the other hand, will be just short of extinct with the bulk of its population either dead or dying in an exchange with a nation like Israel, shooting for maximum effect with more effective weapons and more than likley better planning.
Using ones nukes can be as simple as letting them be the elephant in the negotiating room. The truth is Iran's president publicly calls for the obliteration of Israel, you decide to simply ignore that. The truth is Iran is run by religious whackaloons who have done such wonderfully sane things as banning dogs, dog walking, etc. The garuntee that the big red button won't be under the finger of a religious whackaloon simply cannot be assumed.

Even if we ignore the very real possibility of the Supreme Leader going off the deep end, internal coup by the hardliners, etc. Giving Iran more options is a bad thing. If a nuclear Iran closes the straights of Hormuz what exactly do you do? Open them in the hopes that they won't lob a nuke in response?
I don't see the Iranian leadership as whackaloony as the Bush administration.

If Iran tries to play the nuclear card against a major nuclear-armed power, they die, because they can't play the MAD card. Conventional muscle places a loose obligation on opponents to respond conventionally, whereas nuclear ability invites a pre-emptive strike to remove the nuclear threat.

What kind of options are those? The mullahs want to oversee a triumph of Islam upon all the Earth; tough to do that if they become radiaoactive ashes.
That's right you don't think. I've read far better nuclear strategy from far more qualified minds. Having nuclear weapons raises the ante for conventional intervention. If you don't like that take it up with RAND, etc.
They are welcome to their more qualified arguements and motivations for promoting those arguements.
So they sit out the exchange in an undisclosed bunker in the mountains. That changes the situation how? If they are willing to accept mass martyrdom of the peons it won't matter.
Losing a war and their peons might disrupt their theocracy and religious mission a little. Therefore they will avoid such wars and the possibility of having to fight them.
Ohh look another red herring. Why Iran is being confrontational doesn't matter. The fact that it chooses to bankroll groups that its enemies find to be terrorists is confrontational. Deal with it. Preferably honestly without strawmanning or using red herrings, but I know that is difficult for a dishonest debater like you.
I am an inept debater, learning slowly, but am trying to be honest. Iran supports Islamic 'charitiable' groups Israel and the US don't like. I will concede this is dirty, given the links to actual terrorists those groups have. These actions havn't been declared an act of war, and is not a direct threat of offensive Iraninan military force. I won't label it as confrontational.
Which is why no one is contemplating goin in on the ground. The B-2s alone can destroy the Iranian nuclear program. The B-2s, F-117s, and F-22s can destroy Iranian air defenses. The US need not set foot on the ground to trash Iran, which it need not do merely to disarm Iran.
The US has already claimed to have set foot on the ground, in the form of special forces recon troops. The US is not massing troops at the Iranian border, so a ground operation is not set to go, even if it is planned as a contingincy.

Coalition soldiers will be needed to deal with the Shia joining the Iraqi resistance more actively in the wake of an Iranian air war. Or is the US counting on exacerbating the Kurd-Sunni-Shia divide even worse with the likes of people like special agents Zarqawi?

Airstrikes against Iran will create more problems than they will solve, especially if air defenses have to be stripped first, prolonging the event. I was under the impression this would not be necessary, though, given the superiority of attacking aircraft and missiles.
Snort. Their unemployment makes a lie of that statement, it has resisted all government control and continues to drain Iranian coffers. Looking at the actual GDP growth it shows remarkable correlation to world oil price and much less to Iranian economic policy. Iranian growth is not controlled.
The mullahs want to limit the development of a large, capitalist middle class not dependent on the theocratic state's charity and succeptable to secularism. Unsurprisingly, this results in a poor rate of economic growth, but can't stop it entirely because they really don't want to give up the benefits of a modern state only a modern economy can deliver. Since they want to build it themselves, they need to give their people the freedom of choice and action they need to apply themselves.
You do realize you are contradicting yourself as this is the time period in which you claimed Iran was contained and isolated? Both cannot be true.
Dressed link
The Tanker War, 1984-87

Naval operations came to a halt, presumably because Iraq and Iran had lost many of their ships, by early 1981; the lull in the fighting lasted for two years. In March 1984, Iraq initiated sustained naval operations in its self-declared 1,126-kilometer maritime exclusion zone, extending from the mouth of the Shatt al Arab to Iran's port of Bushehr. In 1981 Baghdad had attacked Iranian ports and oil complexes as well as neutral tankers and ships sailing to and from Iran; in 1984 Iraq expanded the socalled tanker war by using French Super-Etendard combat aircraft armed with Exocet missiles. Neutral merchant ships became favorite targets, and the long-range Super-Etendards flew sorties farther south. Seventy-one merchant ships were attacked in 1984 alone, compared with forty-eight in the first three years of the war. Iraq's motives in increasing the tempo included a desire to break the stalemate, presumably by cutting off Iran's oil exports and by thus forcing Tehran to the negotiating table. Repeated Iraqi efforts failed to put Iran's main oil exporting terminal at Khark Island out of commission, however. Iran retaliated by attacking first a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Bahrain on May 13 and then a Saudi tanker in Saudi waters five days later, making it clear that if Iraq continued to interfere with Iran's shipping, no Gulf state would be safe.

These sustained attacks cut Iranian oil exports in half, reduced shipping in the Gulf by 25 percent, led Lloyd's of London to increase its insurance rates on tankers, and slowed Gulf oil supplies to the rest of the world; moreover, the Saudi decision in 1984 to shoot down an Iranian Phantom jet intruding in Saudi territorial waters played an important role in ending both belligerents' attempts to internationalize the tanker war. Iraq and Iran accepted a 1984 UN-sponsored moratorium on the shelling of civilian targets, and Tehran later proposed an extension of the moratorium to include Gulf shipping, a proposal the Iraqis rejected unless it were to included their own Gulf ports.

Iraq began ignoring the moratorium soon after it went into effect and stepped up its air raids on tankers serving Iran and Iranian oil-exporting facilities in 1986 and 1987, attacking even vessels that belonged to the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf. Iran responded by escalating its attacks on shipping serving Arab ports in the Gulf. As Kuwaiti vessels made up a large portion of the targets in these retaliatory raids, the Kuwaiti government sought protection from the international community in the fall of 1986. The Soviet Union responded first, agreeing to charter several Soviet tankers to Kuwait in early 1987. Washington, which has been approached first by Kuwait and which had postponed its decision, eventually followed Moscow's lead. United States involvement was sealed by the May 17, 1987, Iraqi missile attack on the USS Stark, in which thirtyseven crew members were killed. Baghdad apologized and claimed that the attack was a mistake. Ironically, Washington used the Stark incident to blame Iran for escalating the war and sent its own ships to the Gulf to escort eleven Kuwaiti tankers that were "reflagged" with the American flag and had American crews. Iran refrained from attacking the United States naval force directly, but it used various forms of harassment, including mines, hit-and-run attacks by small patrol boats, and periodic stop-and-search operations. On several occasions, Tehran fired its Chinese-made Silkworm missiles on Kuwait from Al Faw Peninsula. When Iranian forces hit the reflagged tanker Sea Isle City in October 1987, Washington retaliated by destroying an oil platform in the Rostam field and by using the United States Navy's Sea, Air, and Land (SEAL) commandos to blow up a second one nearby.

Within a few weeks of the Stark incident, Iraq resumed its raids on tankers but moved its attacks farther south, near the Strait of Hormuz. Washington played a central role in framing UN Security Council Resolution 598 on the Gulf war, passed unanimously on July 20; Western attempts to isolate Iran were frustrated, however, when Tehran rejected the resolution because it did not meet its requirement that Iraq should be punished for initiating the conflict.

In early 1988, the Gulf was a crowded theater of operations. At least ten Western navies and eight regional navies were patrolling the area, the site of weekly incidents in which merchant vessels were crippled. The Arab Ship Repair Yard in Bahrain and its counterpart in Dubayy, United Arab Emirates (UAE), were unable to keep up with the repairs needed by the ships damaged in these attacks.

Source: U.S. Library of Congress
Is this the tanker war you are referring to, began by Iraqi attacks on Iranian and neutral shipping? Kind of awkward to lay the blame entirely on the Iranians and punish them for it without indicting Iraq, but clearly you see things differently.

Iran would have also been importing arms and selling oil to fund the war. When I said they were contained, I took this into consideration. Iran's complaints that Iraq was using poison gas were ignored, like Iraqi tanker plinking, due to their diplomatic isolation. Their trade suffered because the worlds wealthiest nations wouldn't deal openly with them, out of respect for American interests. Iranian Islamic fundamentalism was prevented from becoming anything more than a national revolution.

In any case, North Korea is a contained nation, and it compels South Korea, China and Russia to protect it, no matter how embarassing the exercise, while offering little in return except demands for more aid.
Over a 1,000 candidates registered to run for president. 7 were allowed to do so with many front line reformers being excluded. Of those who did run both the #2 and #3 candidates have publicly stated there was endemic fraud, intimidation, and violations of electoral law. The outgoing president also noted similar sentiments.

The Iranian moderates had no reasonable chance in the light of the problems already witnessed.
They made their statements publically. They are not fleeing the country or going into hiding. The secret police is not disappearing them. They don't feel compelled to start a violent resistance movement. Iran is its own (oil rich) banana republic, not America's, and that is what upsets the US war party, not concern for Iranian electoral rights.
How do you manage to breath without your brain going catatonic from over exertion? You noted Iran isn't digging trenches, etc. which is quite right; they happen to not be as tacticly ignorant as you and know that such defenses will not stop the American war machine. If they are preparing for war the number one imperative is security which means said preperations won't be making the news.
Said preparations would be of limited military value but assure the Iranian public that the government is in charge. Maintaining legitimacy in the eyes of the public is important to authoritarian regimes. Whether or not the Iranian people would actually fall for this, I don't know; Iraq went through the motions till the very end even though it had far less of a chance. Iraq's real preparations; laying arms caches, stashing cash, and training soldiers to fight an insurgency and foreign operatives to keep them supplied, are certainly effective but not offensive in nature. The visible preparations revved up the population and they remained defiant even after 'shock and awe' and initial defeat, willing from the start to shelter an insurgency.
Replacing lost capabilities is expensive and resource intensive. Just because things are quiet now, hell let's even say its an official hudna, doesn't mean the money and support isn't flowing in (like say the intelligence agencies claim).
The same intelligence agencies who claimed Iraq had WMDs? While I don't doubt Iran is up to something, a surgical strike on their infrastructure won't prevent the flow of such funds. Going a step further with an occupation and removal of its indigenous government can't stop people from smuggling cash and quite possibly would increase the viability of black market operations more difficult to monitor than the Iranian government and its clandestine operatives.
The next batch of recruits. Read some Mao and the bloody Koran, times of calm, strategic retreat, and hudna are all endorsed.
As if attacking Iran won't just create even more terrorists and sympathizers willing to send money, under the banner of freedom fighting against American oppression.
Yeah but when one side uses paramilitaries to intimidate the other in the west we tend to look askance at it.
The paramiltaries weren't handing out pre-filled ballots and sticking guns into polling booths, either. The Iranian people don't want to be attacked and want the right to develop nuclear power. People look in askance at American motivations in trying to intimidate Iran, and many suspect this is not simple intimidation driven by concern for Iranian human rights and world security, but a buildup to a war for control of Iranian fossil fuel reserves.
In other words the policy makers are the theocrats who rigged the rules and we should hence work from that premise until the reformers manage to get some power to change policy.
Like the rules in the West aren't rigged to favour those in power, reflect the liberalism of those elites, and change over time.
You can't be THAT dumb.
Well, I'm not an Iran expert, but I haven't read any reports claiming that Iran's government is illegitimate outside the axis of oil.
Only pro forma. As long as they have enough supporters in the country to fill out the seats (trivial) they can merely deny all others.


Their electoral shenanigans are supposed to convince me Iran needs a good bombing? Their internal political process is their own business, that preferably will be worked out peacefully.
BS. The gaurdian council threw out over 99% of the candidates for president. In the end Rafsanjani, the man the reformer Khatami replaced, ended up being the closest thing to a serious reform candidate in the race.
Candidates willing to face Guardian Council scrutiny and censure. If they are willing to work with their own system, and trust it that far, that is good enough to convince me Iran is on the track to improvment.
Right and the armed Basij in the streets did nothing? The out going president, the winner of the first round of voting, and other presidential candidates all cited intimidation. I trust their opinion far more than yours.

When it was reported by Western news services they did the stock "and official Iranian sources say, 'It was a perfect election' " bit. Merely quoting a lie does not make it true.
They cited intimidation. And lived. And, they are politicians who have to explain to their followers why they lost. I trust their decision that it was safe to speak out. The Iranian reformers are counting on peaceful support from outside their country to enable them to operate freely and safely, not American bombs.
Why yes playing a grand game of Telephone is a wonderful way to get accurate news
Perhaps they should be allowed to buy the National Enquirer and watch Fox News. They probably say what they need to say face to face, to avoid nosy government eavesdropping.
They were. The IAEA is either lying through its teeth or it had no idea that Natanz even existed (that is their official stance). So either you trust someone you beleive lied to you or they could be built in secrecy, which is your position again?
Iran Timeline

This is 2005. Natanz isn't secret anymore, it was inspected, and nothing condemning was found. I don't trust people who lie to me. Especially big lies backed with wilful incompetance.

Where are those Iraqi WMDs, where is that Iraqi democracy whole-heartedly endorsed by happy Iraqis ever-so-grateful to neocon America, and why isn't US military force excelling at nation building? Why aren't the Coalition troops safely at home now that it is 'mission accomplished'? From the start, critics of the war like former Secretary of the Army Thomas White were censured for trying to tell the truth, and pro-war types applauded.

Why should I believe attacking Iran will make things better, coming as it is from the deliverers of previous bloody deceptions? Why should I trust pro-war advocates over the neutral IAEA and anti-war sources with a much better track record of credibility?
The US has dumped billions INTO Iraq. France, Russia, etc. had the choice of forgiving Iraqi debt or having it repudiated (which both France and Russia have done themselves).

So your point was just another example of vague ramblings illustrating your ignorance?
Iran has 2000 years of natural gas? Where did you find that specifically unusual figure? I can't find it.

The US has dumped billions of dollars of captured Iraqi oil money and American taxpayer's dollars into the coffers of its corporations, and corrupt individuals, laundering it through the Iraq war and reconstruction. Iran is right now next on their list. America is not as as whole profiting from war in Iraq; shooting up Iran is extremely unlikely to make their collective respective conditions any rosier.

Anyone reading the news can draw these conclusions; its not that hard to figure out, as some very educated and informed commentaries spell it out in so many words. Certainly, I'm not all that bright. I also don't count at all as much as the back room boys of the rivals to US power or individual citizens in Iraq or Iran, many of whom are smarter than myself with access to the same information and more, and a hell of a lot meaner, and unlike reporters and columnists, some of them are in a position to do more than talk. Americans are beng led into a greater and messier fight than they realize in Iran, for no good reasons.

France and Russia expected sanctions to eventually be lifted, allowing Iraq to pay them back, monetarily and with generous access to more Iraqi energy reserves. They did not expect an American invasion that returned control of Iraqi oil to American and British oil companies. Their payoff, had it worked out, would have profited them handsomely, while their failure has been written off with a little red ink and red faces, not the blood of their soldiers and Iraqi citizens.
tharkûn
Tireless defender of wealthy businessmen
Posts: 2806
Joined: 2002-07-08 10:03pm

Post by tharkûn »

:roll:
No idea, although I assume they can and have plans to expand their electrical grid to meet future demand.
They don't (so far as anyone has announced) and can't - even if they pushed modern infrastructure right up to the border capable of handling an export power load; it still wouldn't take the power to the consumers in the recipient nations.

If you have evidence, please post. Otherwise we shall ignore this fallicious line of thought.
They need electrical power themselves, they want to be able to export, they are laying the groundwork to do so and this includes nuclear power generation. As far as energy security goes, they seem to want to cover all their bases for production.
BS. They turned down European concessions for a free light water reactor (like those used throughout the world) if they stopped producing (at considerable expense) their heavy water program. The difference? The heavy water reactor breeds far more plutonium and is much easier to weaponize.
Fortunately, I didn't claim to be an expert in nuclear power storage.
Then I suggest you refrain from pulling BS justifications out of your ass. Bunkering nuclear facilities has a long history - and all other examples serve one purpose - to protect nuclear weapons programs.
Some long-term nuclear waste storage facilities proposed for design in the West are concrete-reinforced shells that are essentially bunkers.
BS. Western long-term nuclear waste storage is tunnelled into rock, mainly to avoid long term water exposure. The actual containment occurs inside ceramics and with the material being vitrified inside that. Iran's bunkers, so far as the details have been made public, show no design characteristics of long term storage or applicability in that regard.
Iranian bunkers were inspected by the IAEA, who would have been looking at their quality as well as for weapons, and they passed.
:roll: They passed on the qualities for which they were alleged to be designed; I know of no evaluations with regard to their applicability to be used as long term storage facilities.
Reality is Iran can't back their threats, while the US can and is spoiling to start an unnecessary fight to meet its perceived needs, or rather, those of powerful of elites who happen to be in charge right now.
Blah blah, must keep the tinfoil on, blah blah blah.
Furthermore, they are doing so without regard to geopolitical reality; other nation states benefit from Iran being left alone to sell oil to them.
Right we have people powerful enough and intelligent enough to control the world's most powerful democracy, but stupid enough to not realize this? Get real. Comic book evil masterminds who just want to bomb places don't exist.
America/Israel bashing is the PC thing in Iran. Still, the Iranian people are beginning to understand that they can't let their own government use this as an excuse for its own social failings, and they are starting to doubt the mullahs. Secular ideas on science, technology, and economics visibly improves their quality of life.
And when they have the power to shape policy you might begin to have a point. As it is this just another red herring to the fact that Iran's leaders have ostracized themselves from many of their neighbors, continue to adopt confrontational stances, and control the levers of power.
The point is, Iran dosen't want to do business with the US any more than they have to, possibly neither do many other states in the region, and the means to ignore American financial power is being developed.
Keep telling yourself that. The US is undertaking major developments in the Caspian, has deep ties with Islamabad, and now has friendly governments in both Afhganistan and Iraq. The truth is American finance is having an ever increasing role in the region (which in many cases it had zero back before the breakup of the USSR.
Iranian human rights are worse than a lot of places, but better than what Iraqis enjoy, except perhaps those well within Kurdish or Shia controlled territory.
Concession accepted. Iranian human rights are worse than Iraqi, excepting the majority of the population, economy, and large area is duplitious, but I cease to be surprised that you must sink to such unethical tricks to maintain your Iranian apologism.

At least the Iranians are free to work it out from within, under their own system, and earning those freedoms will mean more as they acheive them.
No they aren't. The Iranians wanted to work their freedoms out. Thousands of candidates were specificly excluded preventing them from so doing.
Russia has a lot of concerns; dominating Iran is probably on the list, but below subduing Chechnya and a whole lot of other problems. Keeping the US out of all that Iranian fossil fuel, though, is probably a bit higher and can be acheived without domination for the time being.
Yeah like the US doesn't have a list of things to do, like control the Mexican border, settle Canadian trade disputes, stabilize Iraq, deal with the Chinese trade imbalance. Ohh wait you will ignore that because Bush = Palpatine :roll:
El Shrub fits any Saturday morning cartoon vision of slimy villany, and evil would is an inaccurate descriptor for lying warmongers. Most people prefer to view him as merely incompetant, as that makes his prescence in the Oval Office less embarassing.
Remember if you keep the tinfoil on tight enough the mind control waves can't get through.
Libya and Cuba could disappear from the face of the earth and that would not harm the US economically.
What a dumbass. Libyan oil would send a massive oil price shock throughout the world.
The best way to contain the Japanese war machine was to deprive Japan of the raw resources they needed to sustain it. Japan was their rival in the Pacific. Japan tried to militarily acquire China's resources; the US wanted access too, but by more peaceful means.
BS. The US had no need of Chinese resources, and still doesn't. The US restricted Japanese importation of strategic resources because Japan was waging a brutal war in China.
Read the Ahmadinejad bio at globalsecurity.org; quite an adventurer. He's not a cleric like Rafsanjani; a civil engineer lacks the religious credentials to send Islamic militants the world over to do battle with America.
:roll: You do realize that all the crusaders, Zengi, Nur ad-Din, Saladin, etc. were all lay leaders. The Supreme Leader himself, in violation of the Iranian constitution, annointed him as the hardline Islamicist candidate.
Going to war with them will not improve matters for anyone, including the US. Iran is not as radical as it once was.
That says precisely nothing.
Persians, on the other hand, will be just short of extinct with the bulk of its population either dead or dying in an exchange with a nation like Israel, shooting for maximum effect with more effective weapons and more than likley better planning.
Due to geography Iran will have far more numerous enclaves that will survive. All those mountains, greater land area, and more dispersed population tends to do that.
I don't see the Iranian leadership as whackaloony as the Bush administration.
I know, you've more than proven you are either a troll or have a negative IQ.
If Iran tries to play the nuclear card against a major nuclear-armed power, they die, because they can't play the MAD card. Conventional muscle places a loose obligation on opponents to respond conventionally, whereas nuclear ability invites a pre-emptive strike to remove the nuclear threat.
If Iran marches into Azerbaijan right now anyone can begin intervening and protect Azerbaijan. If Iran goes nuclear any intervention runs the risk of being miscontrued by the Iranians as a preemptive strike against their nuclear arsenal. At this point Iran goes to a use it or lose it scenario which is a decidely bad thing.
What kind of options are those? The mullahs want to oversee a triumph of Islam upon all the Earth; tough to do that if they become radiaoactive ashes.
Aside from the clerics who have publicly called for nuclear use of an "Islamic bomb"? You do realize that some theocrats beleive the hand of Allah is the best NMD availible, others beleive that the sacrifice of Tehran will inspire the rest of the Muslim world to rise up from its stupor and overrun the West in righteous holy war. You admit they are not rational, but cannot see what irrational views they might hold which would welcome a nuclear exchange?
Losing a war and their peons might disrupt their theocracy and religious mission a little. Therefore they will avoid such wars and the possibility of having to fight them.
They had no problem sending the peons off in human waves during the Iran-Iraq war. Indeed they revelled in sending off underequipped children to become martyrs. Iran has a proven track record of sacrificing their peons to acheive their goals.

I am an inept debater, learning slowly, but am trying to be honest. Iran supports Islamic 'charitiable' groups Israel and the US don't like. I will concede this is dirty, given the links to actual terrorists those groups have. These actions havn't been declared an act of war, and is not a direct threat of offensive Iraninan military force. I won't label it as confrontational.
You are dishonest. Just because you refuse to live in reality does make it confrontational. Indeed the only opinion that matters is the Israeli and American ones, if they view it to be confrontational then it will be treated as such and hence it is confrontational.
The US has already claimed to have set foot on the ground, in the form of special forces recon troops. The US is not massing troops at the Iranian border, so a ground operation is not set to go, even if it is planned as a contingincy.
Concession accepted.
Coalition soldiers will be needed to deal with the Shia joining the Iraqi resistance more actively in the wake of an Iranian air war. Or is the US counting on exacerbating the Kurd-Sunni-Shia divide even worse with the likes of people like special agents Zarqawi?
Ahh the trolling tinfoil brigade.

Airstrikes against Iran will create more problems than they will solve, especially if air defenses have to be stripped first, prolonging the event. I was under the impression this would not be necessary, though, given the superiority of attacking aircraft and missiles.
That depends on how badly the US wishes to maul Iran.
Is this the tanker war you are referring to, began by Iraqi attacks on Iranian and neutral shipping? Kind of awkward to lay the blame entirely on the Iranians and punish them for it without indicting Iraq, but clearly you see things differently.
The difference between Iraqi and Iranian operations were simple. Iraq declared an exclusion zone, which it enforced, against Iranian ports. Iran attacked ships never entering Iraqi ports in Bahraini waters. The former was an act of war by Iraq against Iran; the latter was an act of war by Iran against 3rd parties with no role in the conflict.
They made their statements publically. They are not fleeing the country or going into hiding. The secret police is not disappearing them. They don't feel compelled to start a violent resistance movement. Iran is its own (oil rich) banana republic, not America's, and that is what upsets the US war party, not concern for Iranian electoral rights.
1. You apparently don't give a damn about the iron fist so long as it hides in a velvet glove.
2. You apparently are a moron who can't figure out that Iran became a target of US wrath by its own actions: supporting groups the US holds to be terrorists and pursueing a nuclear program that to any qualified opinion (which yours is not) looks to be designed for military programs. To whit the US will only attack Iran in response to Iranian policy.
Said preparations would be of limited military value but assure the Iranian public that the government is in charge. Maintaining legitimacy in the eyes of the public is important to authoritarian regimes. Whether or not the Iranian people would actually fall for this, I don't know; Iraq went through the motions till the very end even though it had far less of a chance. Iraq's real preparations; laying arms caches, stashing cash, and training soldiers to fight an insurgency and foreign operatives to keep them supplied, are certainly effective but not offensive in nature. The visible preparations revved up the population and they remained defiant even after 'shock and awe' and initial defeat, willing from the start to shelter an insurgency.
:roll: Iraqi preperations appear to have had little impact on public confidence. In any event doing that too soon makes the government look like Chicken Little and results in a loss of legitimacy.
The same intelligence agencies who claimed Iraq had WMDs?
No.
As if attacking Iran won't just create even more terrorists and sympathizers willing to send money, under the banner of freedom fighting against American oppression.
I doubt it. A strike on the nuclear facilities isn't going to get anyone other than the nuts willing to go die fighting the Americans; said nuts are already willing to come anyways.
The paramiltaries weren't handing out pre-filled ballots and sticking guns into polling booths, either.
There have been charges to the contrary.
. The Iranian people don't want to be attacked and want the right to develop nuclear power.
Then why refuse to stop building a heavy water reactor in exchange for a free European light water reactor?
People look in askance at American motivations in trying to intimidate Iran, and many suspect this is not simple intimidation driven by concern for Iranian human rights and world security, but a buildup to a war for control of Iranian fossil fuel reserves.
And such people are idiots. The US hasn't the manpower to control such reserves without at least the passive support of the populace. Keeping the oil flowing against any insurgency with broad popular support would prove impossible.
Like the rules in the West aren't rigged to favour those in power, reflect the liberalism of those elites, and change over time.
Black/white fallacy. "Rigging" isn't a binary choice, Iran has orders of magnitude worse elections.
Well, I'm not an Iran expert, but I haven't read any reports claiming that Iran's government is illegitimate outside the axis of oil.
I take it you are illeterate, the Beeb carried Rafsanjanis allegations as well as Khatami's statements.
Their electoral shenanigans are supposed to convince me Iran needs a good bombing? Their internal political process is their own business, that preferably will be worked out peacefully.
Oh look yet another topic shift when a dumbass comment you make is shown to be false. Iran "needs a good bombing" because they are pursueing nuclear weapons (the only reason to turn down the European offer cold) and the people who actually run the country aren't particularly rational and like to call for "annhilation" and "obliteration".
Candidates willing to face Guardian Council scrutiny and censure. If they are willing to work with their own system, and trust it that far, that is good enough to convince me Iran is on the track to improvment.
And when the opinion of a lobotimized troll like yourself is worth noting the world will send a telegram. Concession accepted, you have no legitimate reply.
They cited intimidation. And lived. And, they are politicians who have to explain to their followers why they lost. I trust their decision that it was safe to speak out. The Iranian reformers are counting on peaceful support from outside their country to enable them to operate freely and safely, not American bombs.
That depends on whom you ask. Funny though Iran has had journalists murdered by the hardliners as well as reformists. But I suppose cold dead bodies which just happen to be killed all at the same time means nothing.
This is 2005. Natanz isn't secret anymore, it was inspected, and nothing condemning was found. I don't trust people who lie to me. Especially big lies backed with wilful incompetance.
The IAEA makes no claim that it can detect clandestine Iranian nuclear activities, indeed it acknowledges its inability to do so, citing Natanz as an example.
Where are those Iraqi WMDs, where is that Iraqi democracy whole-heartedly endorsed by happy Iraqis ever-so-grateful to neocon America, and why isn't US military force excelling at nation building? Why aren't the Coalition troops safely at home now that it is 'mission accomplished'? From the start, critics of the war like former Secretary of the Army Thomas White were censured for trying to tell the truth, and pro-war types applauded.
Red herring not applicable to Iran. Concession accepted.
Why should I believe attacking Iran will make things better, coming as it is from the deliverers of previous bloody deceptions?
Because you should have brain capable of elementary critical thought, rather than a reflex reaction triggering verbal diahhrea of the "Bush = evil" variety.
Why should I trust pro-war advocates over the neutral IAEA and anti-war sources with a much better track record of credibility?
The IAEA is not on your side. They have found Iran to officially non-compliant on multiple issues, including illicitly acquiring undeclared uranium. They make no claims beyond the facilities they have personally observed.
Iran has 2000 years of natural gas? Where did you find that specifically unusual figure? I can't find it.
Look at Iran's natural gas reserves. Look at world natural gas consumption rates. Look at Iran's share of world population/economy. Note that they don't have severe heating issues like North America or Russia. Run with a simplistic population projection and see how long it takes for the natural gas reserves to be exhausted. Iran has HUGE natural gas reserves, with likely more than is proven.

Anyone reading the news can draw these conclusions; its not that hard to figure out, as some very educated and informed commentaries spell it out in so many words.
I prefer to read primary sources which tell me that Iran refuses a light water reactor, oh the horrors of not producing plutonium. "Informed commentaries" tend to be dreadfully short on information; given the number of outright falsehoods you've posted it appears you are less informed than had you read nothing.

Get off it troll. The Iranian nuclear program doesn't want a concessionary light water reactor, it wants an overly pricing heavy water reactor. Iran doesn't want energy independence based on its natural gas reserves and technology it already owns, but wishes to import Russian hardware, uranium by the ton, and technical expertise for a resource it has precious little reserves to ever use.

The state is run by the Supreme Leader and not surprising their "energy" project is run by his allies. Their president, duly annointed by the Supreme Leader, calls for the "obliteration" of Israel and the US. Even if we assume there is just laying on the rhetoric, that still means that conditions are such that genocidal rhetoric earns him points with either his supporters or the population - not a recipe for stability. Even if we assume there is a 99% Iran won't build a bomb, in spite of multiple assessments by professionals to the contrary, that 1% chance is simply too great a risk to take. Deal with it.
Very funny, Scotty. Now beam down my clothes.
General Brock
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1739
Joined: 2005-03-16 03:52pm
Location: Land of Resting Gophers, Canada

Post by General Brock »

tharkûn wrote:
Get off it troll. The Iranian nuclear program doesn't want a concessionary light water reactor, it wants an overly pricing heavy water reactor. Iran doesn't want energy independence based on its natural gas reserves and technology it already owns, but wishes to import Russian hardware, uranium by the ton, and technical expertise for a resource it has precious little reserves to ever use.
Having reread some stuff, and looked for new sources, I see that:

Iran never had to declare Natanz or Arak (heavy water plant) under Non Proliferation Treaty requirements, and the facilities were in fact still under construction and not even close to operational. They also need one more facility, a nuclear enrichment pilot plant, before they can begin figuring out how to enrich uranium.

The IAEA is not on 'my side'; it is neutral, and sees no danger from Iran's program, and has not reccommended to the UNSC that Iran is a threat.

Prather

A light water reactor can in fact be used to produce plutonium. Iraninan refusal of the EU light-water reactor and other incentives was due to EU inability to actually back those other incentives; promises of Airbus jetliners needed American engines, WTO entry needed American approval, and losing control over the uranium fuel cycle would crimp Iranian plans to become a major supplier of nuclear fuel.

MEI link

They were still willing to deal;
"... no media weenie has yet reported it to you that on March 23, 2005, Iran offered a package of "objective guarantees" (developed by an international panel of experts) that included a voluntary "confinement" of Iran's nuclear programs, including forgoing the reprocessing of spent fuel and the production of plutonium.

So, what did Reuters' Louis Charbonneau tell you about the Iranian Note Verbale of August 1st in which the Iranians noted that the EU had never responded to their offer of March 23 and did not appear to be negotiating in good faith, thereby effectively explaining why the Iranians were breaking off negotiations with the EU?
Prather

Since both light and heavy water reactors can produce plutonium, I don't think it matters what sort of reactor Iran has. An Arak Iranian heavy water reactor is years from completion. A light water reactor is what is in El Shrub's sights right now.

Global sec linky

Wisconsin Project link

Germany started the Bushehr reactors in 1974; light water reactors capable of making plutonium, enough in fact for thirty atomic weapons a year. Ayatollah Khomeni ended the project in 1979; the one person one would have expected to want nukes had no interest in nuclear power or weapons.

Perhaps he felt the US-built, heavy water Tehran Nuclear Research Center [located in suburban Amirabad] inherited from the Shah was good enough. Built in 1968, it can produce plutonium; oddly enough TNRC dosen't figure in the news as a target, only the one Russia is profiting from. In any case, Iran has had the most experience with heavy water reactors, perhaps another reason why Arak is designed to be a heavy water plant.

Now, of course, Iran is willing to buy Russian expertise to finish the German reactors, and build a few more. It won't be Western countries receiving those multi-billion dollar contracts. Iran is signatory to the NPT (while Israel is not, and has three German submarines capable of delivering nukes in addition to undisclosed land capability). I'll trust Iran not to be making nukes. Russia, of course, can, and has a large stockpile of nukes to maintain. Part of its deal with Iran includes re-importing spent nuclear fuel.

NTI Linky

I was wrong; Iran has lots of coal. It also has a fair amount of uranium, and 420 years of NG - but only at present requirements:
Date Added:Jun 23 2002

Iran's Uranium Reserves, 44 Billion Barrels of Crude Oil
Hamshahri, Daily Newspaper, Vol. 10, No. 2758, Jun. 23rd, 2002,

Head of the Center for Research on Energy and Environment Engineer Dariush Foroughi believes that Iran's uranium reserves can generate energy equal to 44 billion barrels of crude oil, using modern technology and methods. These reserves, which now stand at 12,000 tons, can produce energy equal to 880 million barrels of oil using domestic technology. He puts Iran's coal reserves at 13 billion tons and probably 50 billion tons and the country's wind energy capacity at 6,000 megawatts.

By exploiting its uranium reserves of 12,000 tons, the country can produce energy equal to 880 million barrels of crude oil using domestic technology but if the world's state-of-the-art technology is employed these reserves can be used for generation of energy equal to 44 billion barrels of oil.

According to Engineer Dariush Foroughi, head of the Center for Research on Energy and Environment, nuclear power plants are among the alternatives to fossil fuels and Iran's first nuclear power station in Bushehr would be considered as the first step taken by the country in this respect.

According to preliminary estimates, Iran's uranium reserves stand at around 12,000 tons which if used in current reactors can produce energy equal to 880 million barrels of crude oil. In this method, only 65 percent of the energy of uranium can be retrieved. Of course, with the same amount of uranium, up to 50 times this amount of energy or 44 billion tons can be generated by modern gas-fueled high thermal reactors or reactors using state-of-the-art technology. But access to such technologies in western countries will not be possible until 2015 to 2020 and therefore under a more realistic prediction such technologies would not be accessible to our country for several decades from now.

As for recoverable energies and their position in the country's energy basket, he said that our country enjoys high capacity for making use of solar energy. The studies now under way put wind energy capacity of the country at 6,000 megawatts. The country's capacity for generation of energy from the heat of the earth is relatively noticeable. However, the result of studies by leading international energy institutes show that the share of new energies in meeting the preliminary energy requirements of industrialized countries will rise from four percent to five percent in the next 20 years or between 2000 and 2020. In short, the said countries by drawing up a comprehensive long term plan and pursuing pre-determined goals, expect the share of new energies in their energy basket to rise by one percent in a 20 year long period.

...

At any rate, research findings point to this fact that the lion's share of the world's energy requirements in the long run will be met by solar energy. However, this objective can be achieved in the next two or three centuries only through systematic programming and well-calculated research and development plans. To this end, he recommended that world developments and trends be carefully pursued and a long-term research plan be drawn up without resorting to scattered and purposeless executive projects. The task of drawing up such research plans should be entrusted to one or more domestic research institutes in order to narrow the gap between research and development and manufacture of needed equipment.

In response to a question as to what should be done until the aforementioned time, he said that first of all the status of energy generation process and energy equipment in our country is such that based on exert estimates, it is possible to increase energy production and saving by between 30 to 40 percent. In addition, our country's present natural gas reserves of 26.7 trillion cubic meters can meet our requirements for 420 years at the current rate of consumption. Although these figures seem to be enticing, it should be noted that production and utilization of such a tremendous volume of gas need huge investments, which are not affordable for our country now. However, this problem is related to the financing of projects in the gas sector and not to the lack of adequate gas fields. The country's coal reserves that are mostly located in desert regions stands at 13 billion tons or probably 50 billion tons. Given the trend of research activities in the world, it is clear that developed countries never neglect research and development activities and based on existing information they make new findings in this field every week.

He added that in recent years, valuable achievements have been made in the field of electricity generation technology, increasing the output of gas turbines, conversion of coal into gas and so on. All of these efforts are being made to preserve energy resources and protect environment. With a simple calculation we can realize that if the recovery co-efficient of oil and gas fields in Iran increases merely by one percent, our country will own a big wealth and a huge capacity.

Engineer Foroughi added that our country has acquired valuable experiences in the oil, gas and electricity industries. When the developed countries are paying attention to this fact that fossil fuels will be the dominant energy resources in the next few decades and thus have concentrated their efforts on attaining higher output levels as well as newer technologies, why we should turn our back to this reality. In short I am of the belief that besides acquiring necessary knowledge about new energy resources and making use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes within the framework of definite plans, the grounds should be prepared to promote this science and master its related technology.

The question of energy saving, increasing energy output, new technologies for generation of electricity of gas and coal must be the centerpiece of the country's development efforts.
Iran generates a lot of sparks; for a sense of scale, as of 2001 they were #22 of the world's nations in terms of electrical generation, ahead of many small developed countries. They are not totally backwards North Koreans in turbans.

World Electricity Generation 2001
Electric Power

Currently, Iran has a capacity of about 31,000 MW of electricity, of which more than 75% is generated by natural gas plants, 7% by hydroelectric, and 18% by oil-fired plants. The corresponding percentages worldwide are, respectively, 17%, 17% and 8% [1]. Iran currently consumes about 28,000 MW of electricity (the rest of the electrical capacity is exported). The demand for electric power is growing at an annual rate of 8%. Thus, Iran projects needing 70,000 MW of electricity by 2021, of which it plans to produce 7,000 MW by NPPs, representing 10% of its electric power. Currently, 19% of the world's electricity is generated by NPPs, and the IAEA estimates that this will reach 27% by 2030 (see below for further discussions).
Iranian Electrical Generation
Ancient Egypt provides key to storing nuclear heritage

Paul Brown, environment correspondent
Tuesday August 9, 2005
The Guardian

The pyramids of the pharaohs and the nuclear bunkers of the past century may appear to have very little in common. But that could be about to change as the guardians of Britain's atomic heritage discover the benefits of working like an Egyptian.

The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority has undertaken an £8bn project to dismantle 26 research reactors and bury nuclear waste (that will remain dangerous for thousands of years) in concrete bunkers and storage facilities.
Concrete Bunkers

Nothing stopping Iran from properly lining its bunkers with ceramics when the time comes, but then I don't know this for sure. To the layman, it seems that Iran has the nuclear waste storage problem cased; every site may have long-term storage potential. Not every bit of radioactive waste is a fuel rod, although some countries describe their storage facilities as 'concrete bunkers'.
Increased storage of burned out fuel rods at plant sites in the Netherlands and West Germany

The electricity company operating the nuclear power station at Borssele in the Southwest of the Netherlands asked permission to expand the storage capacity for burned out fuel rods as well as permission to build a concrete bunker to store up to 8000 tons of other radio-active wastes.
More Bunkers

Iran has serious problems with the way it is governed. This Forbes article came out a couple of years ago, in hardcopy. I found it recently in electronic form:
On The Cover/Top Stories
Millionaire Mullahs
Paul Klebnikov, 07.21.03

A looming nuclear threat to the rest of the world, Iran is robbing its own people of prosperity. But the men at the top are getting extremely rich.

It's rumble time in Tehran. At dozens of intersections in the capital of Iran thousands of students are protesting on a recent Friday around midnight, as they do nearly every night, chanting pro-democracy slogans and lighting bonfires on street corners. Residents of the surrounding middle-class neighborhoods converge in their cars, honking their horns in raucous support.

Suddenly there's thunder in the air. A gang of 30 motorcyclists, brandishing iron bars and clubs, roars through the stalled traffic. They glare at the drivers, yell threats, thump cars. Burly and bearded, the bikers yank two men from their auto and pummel them. Most protesters scatter. Uniformed policemen watch impassively as the thugs beat the last stragglers.

These bikers are part of the Hezbollah militia, recruited mostly from the countryside. Iran's ruling mullahs roll them out whenever they need to intimidate their opponents. The Islamic Republic is a strange dictatorship. As it moves to repress growing opposition to clerical rule, the regime relies not on soldiers or uniformed police (many of whom sympathize with the protesters) but on the bullies of Hezbollah and the equally thuggish Revolutionary Guards. The powers that be claim to derive legitimacy from Allah but remain on top with gangsterlike methods of intimidation, violence and murder.

Who controls today's Iran? Certainly not Mohammad Khatami, the twice-elected moderate president, or the reformist parliament. Not even the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei--a stridently anti-American but unremarkable cleric plucked from the religious ranks 14 years ago to fill the shoes of his giant predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini--is fully in control. The real power is a handful of clerics and their associates who call the shots behind the curtain and have gotten very rich in the process.

The economy bears more than a little resemblance to the crony capitalism that sprouted from the wreck of the Soviet Union. The 1979 revolution expropriated the assets of foreign investors and the nation's wealthiest families; oil had long been nationalized, but the mullahs seized virtually everything else of value--banks, hotels, car and chemical companies, makers of drugs and consumer goods. What distinguishes Iran is that many of these assets were given to Islamic charitable foundations, controlled by the clerics. According to businessmen and former foundation executives, the charities now serve as slush funds for the mullahs and their supporters.

Iran has other lethal secrets besides its nuclear program, now the subject of prying international eyes. Dozens of interviews with businessmen, merchants, economists and former ministers and other top government officials reveal a picture of a dictatorship run by a shadow government that--the U.S. State Department suspects--finances terrorist groups abroad through a shadow foreign policy. Its economy is dominated by shadow business empires and its power is protected by a shadow army of enforcers.

Ironically, the man most adept at manipulating this hidden power structure is one of Iran's best-known characters--Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has been named an ayatollah, or religious leader. He was the speaker of parliament and Khomeini's right-hand man in the 1980s, president of Iran from 1989 to 1997 and is now chairman of the powerful Expediency Council, which resolves disputes between the clerical establishment and parliament. Rafsanjani has more or less run the Islamic Republic for the past 24 years.

He played it smart, aligning himself in the 1960s with factions led by Ayatollah Khomeini, then becoming the go-to guy after the revolution. A hard-liner ideologically, Rafsanjani nonetheless has a pragmatic streak. He convinced Khomeini to end the Iran-Iraq war and broke Iran's international isolation by establishing trade relations with the Soviet Union, China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the 1990s he restarted Iran's nuclear program.

He is also the father of Iran's "privatization" program. During his presidency the stock market was revived, some government companies were sold to insiders, foreign trade was liberalized and the oil sector was opened up to private companies. Most of the good properties and contracts, say dissident members of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, ended up in the hands of mullahs, their associates and, not least, Rafsanjani's family, who rose from modest origins as pistachio farmers. "They were not rich people, so they worked hard and always tried to help their relatives get ahead," remembers Reza, a historian who declines to use his last name and who studied with one of Rafsanjani's brothers at Tehran University in the early 1970s. "When they were in university, two brothers earned money on the side tutoring theological students and preparing their exam papers."

The 1979 revolution transformed the Rafsanjani clan into commercial pashas. One brother headed the country's largest copper mine; another took control of the state-owned TV network; a brother-in-law became governor of Kerman province, while a cousin runs an outfit that dominates Iran's $400 million pistachio export business; a nephew and one of Rafsanjani's sons took key positions in the Ministry of Oil; another son heads the Tehran Metro construction project (an estimated $700 million spent so far). Today, operating through various foundations and front companies, the family is also believed to control one of Iran's biggest oil engineering companies, a plant assembling Daewoo automobiles, and Iran's best private airline (though the Rafsanjanis insist they do not own these assets).

None of this sits well with the populace, whose per capita income is $1,800 a year. The gossip on the street, going well beyond the observable facts, has the Rafsanjanis stashing billions of dollars in bank accounts in Switzerland and Luxembourg; controlling huge swaths of waterfront in Iran's free economic zones on the Persian Gulf; and owning whole vacation resorts on the idyllic beaches of Dubai, Goa and Thailand.

But not much of the criticism makes its way into print. One journalist who dared to investigate Rafsanjani's secret dealings and his alleged role in extrajudicial killings of dissidents is now languishing in jail. He's lucky. Iranian politics can be deadly. Five years ago Tehran was rocked by murders of journalists and anticorruption activists; some were beheaded, others mutilated.

Some of the family's wealth is out there for all to see. Rafsanjani's youngest son, Yaser, owns a 30-acre horse farm in the superfashionable Lavasan neighborhood of north Tehran, where land goes for over $4 million an acre. Just where did Yaser get his money? A Belgian-educated businessman, he runs a large export-import firm that includes baby food, bottled water and industrial machinery.

Until a few years ago the simplest way to get rich quick was through foreign-currency trades. Easy, if you could get greenbacks at the subsidized import rate of 1,750 rials to the dollar and resell them at the market rate of 8,000 to the dollar. You needed only the right connections for an import license. "I estimate that, over a period of ten years, Iran lost $3 billion to $5 billion annually from this kind of exchange-rate fraud," says Saeed Laylaz, an economist, now with Iran's biggest carmaker. "And the lion's share of that went to about 50 families."

One of the families benefiting from the foreign trade system was the Asgaroladis, an old Jewish clan of bazaar traders, who converted to Islam several generations ago. Asadollah Asgaroladi exports pistachios, cumin, dried fruit, shrimp and caviar, and imports sugar and home appliances; his fortune is estimated by Iranian bankers to be some $400 million. Asgaroladi had a little help from his older brother, Habibollah, who, as minister of commerce in the 1980s, was in charge of distributing lucrative foreign-trade licenses. (He was also a counterparty to commodities trader and then-fugitive Marc Rich, who helped Iran bypass U.S.-backed sanctions.)

The other side of Iran's economy belongs to the Islamic foundations, which account for 10% to 20% of the nation's GDP--$115 billion last year. Known as bonyads, the best-known of these outfits were established from seized property and enterprises by order of Ayatollah Khomeini in the first weeks of his regime. Their mission was to redistribute to the impoverished masses the "illegitimate" wealth accumulated before the revolution by "apostates" and "blood-sucking capitalists." And, for a decade or so, the foundations shelled out money to build low-income housing and health clinics. But since Khomeini's death in 1989 they have increasingly forsaken their social welfare functions for straightforward commercial activities.

Until recently they were exempt from taxes, import duties and most government regulation. They had access to subsidized foreign currency and low-interest loans from state-owned banks. And they were not accountable to the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance or any other government institution. Formally, they are under the jurisdiction of the Supreme Leader; effectively, they operate without any oversight, answerable only to Allah.

According to Shiite Muslim tradition, devout businessmen are expected to donate 20% of profits to their local mosques, which use the money to help the poor. By contrast, many bonyads seem like rackets, extorting money from entrepreneurs. Besides the biggest national outfits, almost every Iranian town has its own bonyad, affiliated with local mullahs. "Many small businessmen complain that as soon as you start to make some money, the leading mullah will come to you and ask for a contribution to his local charity," says an opposition economist, who declines to give his name. "If you refuse, you will be accused of not being a good Muslim. Some witnesses will turn up to testify that they heard you insult the Prophet Mohammad, and you will be thrown in jail."

Other charities resemble multinational conglomerates. The Mostazafan & Jambazan Foundation (Foundation for the Oppressed and War Invalids) is the second-largest commercial enterprise in the country, behind the state-owned National Iranian Oil Co. Until recently it was run by a man named Mohsen Rafiqdoost. The son of a vegetable-and-fruit merchant at the Tehran bazaar, Rafiqdoost got his big break in 1979, when he was chosen to drive Ayatollah Khomeini from the airport after his triumphal return from exile in Paris.

Khomeini made him Minister of the Revolutionary Guards to quash internal dissent and smuggle in weapons for the Iran-Iraq war. In 1989, when Rafsanjani became president, Rafiqdoost gained control of the Mostazafan Foundation, which employs up to 400,000 workers and has assets that in all probability exceed $10 billion.

Theoretically the Mostazafan Foundation is a social welfare organization. By 1996 it began taking government funds to cover welfare disbursements; soon it plans to spin off its social responsibilities altogether, leaving behind a purely commercial conglomerate owned by--whom? That is not clear. Why does this foundation exist? "I don't know--ask Mr. Rafiqdoost," says Abbas Maleki, a foreign policy adviser to Ayatollah Rafsanjani.

A picture emerges from one Iranian businessman who used to handle the foreign trade deals for one of the big foundations. Organizations like the Mostazafan serve as giant cash boxes, he says, to pay off supporters of the mullahs, whether they're thousands of peasants bused in to attend religious demonstrations in Tehran or Hezbollah thugs who beat up students. And, not least, the foundations serve as cash cows for their managers.

"It usually works like this," explains this businessman. "Some foreigner comes in, proposes a deal to the foundation head. The big boss says: ‘Fine. I agree. Work out the details with my administrator.' So the foreigner goes to see the administrator, who tells him: ‘You know that we have two economies here--official and unofficial. You have to be part of the unofficial economy if you want to be successful. So, you have to deposit the following amount into the following bank account abroad and then the deal will go forward.'"

Today Rafiqdoost heads up the Noor Foundation, which owns apartment blocks and makes an estimated $200 million importing pharmaceuticals, sugar and construction materials. He is quick to downplay his personal wealth. "I am just a normal person, with normal wealth," he says. Then, striking a Napoleonic pose, he adds: "But if Islam is threatened, I will become big again."

Implication: He has access to a secret reservoir of money that can be tapped when the need arises. That may have been what Ayatollah Rafsanjani had in mind when he declared recently that the Islamic Republic needed to keep large funds in reserve. But who is to determine when Islam is in danger?

As minister of the Revolutionary Guards in the 1980s, Rafiqdoost played a key role in sponsoring Hezbollah in Lebanon--which kidnapped foreigners, hijacked airplanes, set off car bombs, trafficked in heroin and pioneered the use of suicide bombers. According to Gregory Sullivan, spokesman for the Near Eastern Affairs Bureau at the U.S. State Department, the foundations are the perfect vehicles to carry out Iran's shadow foreign policy. Whenever suspicion of complicity in a terrorist incident turns to Iran, the Tehran government has denied involvement. State Department officials suspect that such operations may be sponsored by one of the foundations and semiautonomous units of the Revolutionary Guards.

Iran's foundations are a law unto themselves. The largest "charity" (at least in terms of real estate holdings) is the centuries-old Razavi Foundation, charged with caring for Iran's most revered shrine--the tomb of Reza, the Eighth Shiite Imam, in the northern city of Mashhad. It is run by one of Iran's leading hard-line mullahs, Ayatollah Vaez-Tabasi, who prefers to stay out of the public eye but emerges occasionally to urge death to apostates and other opponents of the clerical regime.

The Razavi Foundation owns vast tracts of urban real estate all across Iran, as well as hotels, factories, farms and quarries. Its assets are impossible to value with any precision, since the foundation has never released an inventory of its holdings, but Iranian economists speak of a net asset value of $15 billion or more. The foundation also receives generous contributions from the millions of pilgrims who visit the Mashhad shrine each year.

What happens to annual revenues estimated in the hundreds of millions--perhaps billions--of dollars? Not all of it goes to cover the maintenance costs of mosques, cemeteries, religious schools and libraries. Over the past decade the foundation has bought new businesses and properties, established investment banks (together with investors from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) and financed big foreign trade deals.

The driving force behind the commercialization of the Razavi Foundation is Ayatollah Tabasi's son, Naser, who was put in charge of the Sarakhs Free Trade Zone, on the border with the former Soviet republic of Turkmenistan. In the 1990s the foundation poured hundreds of millions of dollars into this project, funding a rail link between Iran and Turkmenistan, new highways, an international airport, a hotel and office buildings.

Then it all went wrong. In July 2001 Naser Tabasi was dismissed as director of the Free Trade Zone. Two months later he was arrested and charged with fraud in connection with a Dubai-based company called Al-Makasib. The details remain murky, but four months ago the General Court of Tehran acquitted him.

Iran's most distinguished senior clerics are disgusted by the mullahcrats. Ayatollah Taheri, Friday prayer leader of the city of Isfahan, resigned in protest earlier this year. "When I hear that some of the privileged progeny and special people, some of whom even don cloaks and turbans, are competing amongst themselves to amass the most wealth," he said, "I am drenched with the sweat of shame."

Meanwhile the clerical elite has mismanaged the nation into senseless poverty. With 9% of the world's oil and 15% of its natural gas, Iran should be a very rich country. It has a young, educated population and a long tradition of international commerce. But per capita income today is 7% below what it was before the revolution. Iranian economists estimate capital flight (to Dubai and other safe havens) at up to $3 billion a year.

No wonder so many students turn to the streets in protest. The dictatorship has been robbing them of their future.
Forbes on Iran

I would rather Iran develop deomcratic checks on the behavior of its elites; it's not going to happen overnight. Iranian hypothetical nuclear capabilities are nothing compared to the actual conventional problems they pose.

The threat of war permits Iranians in power to justify stifling democratic and humanitarian developments, the same way neocons beating war drums have conned Americans into accepting 'temporary' measures curtailing their freedoms and moral standards.

An American military strike on nuclear facilities can't stop Iraninan activites that are like an international mafia in nature; neither will invasion and occupation. Iran needs a diplomatic solution, working with reformers within their system to ensure real humanitarian progress continues to be made. Its obvious El Shrub and his backers and minions will not be a part of this peaceful process in any meaningful way, and are in fact impeding it. Perhaps their feeling is, if they can't profit from Iran, neither will anyone else.
tharkûn
Tireless defender of wealthy businessmen
Posts: 2806
Joined: 2002-07-08 10:03pm

Post by tharkûn »

Iran never had to declare Natanz or Arak (heavy water plant) under Non Proliferation Treaty requirements, and the facilities were in fact still under construction and not even close to operational. They also need one more facility, a nuclear enrichment pilot plant, before they can begin figuring out how to enrich uranium.
Iran is required to report all facilities where it intends to store uranyl compounds. While they may have technicly avoided noncompliance with Natanz (as it was not operational when it was discovered) it was noncompliant with regards to the Jabr Ibn Hayam Multipurpose Laboratories where it stored several thousand kilograms of nondeclared fissile material. The IAEA has specicly cited Iran for this noncompliance.
A light water reactor can in fact be used to produce plutonium.
No really sherlock? Would you like to inform us water is wet? The point is it more difficult to extract plutonium from a light water reactor, particularly if the design is built around thrawting plutonium production.
Iraninan refusal of the EU light-water reactor and other incentives was due to EU inability to actually back those other incentives; promises of Airbus jetliners needed American engines, WTO entry needed American approval, and losing control over the uranium fuel cycle would crimp Iranian plans to become a major supplier of nuclear fuel.
BS. Iran doesn't have that much nuclear fuel, even if we take Iranian claims of uranium reserves at face value and assume they operate their enrichment facilities at peak efficiency, they still are not competitive in the global market against the Australians, Canadians, Kazahks, Namimbians, or Russians). As far as reprocessing, Urenco is far more efficient than anything the Iranians will be operating in the near future.
Since both light and heavy water reactors can produce plutonium, I don't think it matters what sort of reactor Iran has. An Arak Iranian heavy water reactor is years from completion. A light water reactor is what is in El Shrub's sights right now.
:roll: Both sugar and petrol burn, I guess it doesn't matter which I put into your car. Getting plutonium out of a light water reactor is far more difficult than a heavy (which is much more complex and competes with Iran's enrichment industry).
Germany started the Bushehr reactors in 1974; light water reactors capable of making plutonium, enough in fact for thirty atomic weapons a year. Ayatollah Khomeni ended the project in 1979; the one person one would have expected to want nukes had no interest in nuclear power or weapons.
It was ended because the Germans stopped delivery and the Ayatollah decided not to throw more money away at a non-functional reactor.
Perhaps he felt the US-built, heavy water Tehran Nuclear Research Center [located in suburban Amirabad] inherited from the Shah was good enough. Built in 1968, it can produce plutonium; oddly enough TNRC dosen't figure in the news as a target, only the one Russia is profiting from. In any case, Iran has had the most experience with heavy water reactors, perhaps another reason why Arak is designed to be a heavy water plant.
Because that reactor design can produce, at most, 600 grams of plutonium per annum (ignoring Plutonium 240 issues - which hurts your case) after 67 years of most meticulous operation Iran would finally acquire enough plutonium for a single critical mass. Of course long before that the core will be so irradiated that it will no longer be functional.

You see the AMOUNT of plutonium matters. Heavy water reactors produce far more plutonium, in this case orders of magnitude. It does matter which you pick.
Now, of course, Iran is willing to buy Russian expertise to finish the German reactors, and build a few more. It won't be Western countries receiving those multi-billion dollar contracts. Iran is signatory to the NPT (while Israel is not, and has three German submarines capable of delivering nukes in addition to undisclosed land capability). I'll trust Iran not to be making nukes. Russia, of course, can, and has a large stockpile of nukes to maintain. Part of its deal with Iran includes re-importing spent nuclear fuel.
Again your "trust" means precisely dick. Russian re-importation is a good thing, however with a heavy water reactor the lag time is sufficient for Iran to extract the plutonium and get a critical mass, not to mention jacketing fun.
I was wrong; Iran has lots of coal. It also has a fair amount of uranium, and 420 years of NG - but only at present requirements:
Oh look you found the unsubstaniated Iranian propoganda which doesn't give any technical details (like why this didn't show up on earlier radiometric measurements). It is phenomenally convenient that in 2003 the Ayatollah discovered these reserves, in an area already well surveyed, and of course Allah must have told the nation about them over a decade ago when they decided to start this nuclear program :roll:
Iran generates a lot of sparks; for a sense of scale, as of 2001 they were #22 of the world's nations in terms of electrical generation, ahead of many small developed countries. They are not totally backwards North Koreans in turbans.
No really? The problem is they don't have a grid capable of delivering power to their neighbors for export. The grid they do have has sufficient problems that Tehran undergoes frequent rolling blackouts. Iran can quite easily meet power production requirements with natural gas. Hell it could operate massive electrical exports with natural gas plants, their grid is infamous for blackouts.

Nothing stopping Iran from properly lining its bunkers with ceramics when the time comes, but then I don't know this for sure. To the layman, it seems that Iran has the nuclear waste storage problem cased; every site may have long-term storage potential. Not every bit of radioactive waste is a fuel rod, although some countries describe their storage facilities as 'concrete bunkers'.
:roll: If you just line the bunkers with ceramics you will create pressure pockets of radioactive air which will crack them. Again there is a reason why western storage vitrifies first.

As far as storing lesser levels of waste - you don't need a bunker. Dig a hole, put in a water proof seal, and use. Low level waste can be, and is store in 55 gallon drums. Quit with the BS bait and switch first you claimed this was going to be a long term storage facility, now you want to make the world's most overpriced short term storage facility.

Either bring a source which shows design for converting these bunkers to waste repositories (long or short term), a credible independent expert opinion that says it is feasible, or conceed you are pulling the entire scenario out of your ass to justify their decision to bunker post hoc.
I would rather Iran develop deomcratic checks on the behavior of its elites; it's not going to happen overnight. Iranian hypothetical nuclear capabilities are nothing compared to the actual conventional problems they pose.
At present it is simply not going to happen. Their control on the levers of power seems to be increasing of late.

The threat of war permits Iranians in power to justify stifling democratic and humanitarian developments, the same way neocons beating war drums have conned Americans into accepting 'temporary' measures curtailing their freedoms and moral standards.
Sacre bleu! You mean the Iranian elites have something to gain from pursueing a nuclear weapon? You mean that those sneaky bastards might want Natanz, etc. to be bombed because it would help them solidify power and stifle popular dissent? Say it ain't so.
Iran needs a diplomatic solution, working with reformers within their system to ensure real humanitarian progress continues to be made.
Europe tried that with Khatami, remind me again what changed as a result?
Very funny, Scotty. Now beam down my clothes.
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Post by Vympel »

What the heck is this argument even about?
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
Surlethe
HATES GRADING
Posts: 12272
Joined: 2004-12-29 03:41pm

Post by Surlethe »

Vympel wrote:What the heck is this argument even about?
Iran and nuclear weapons, as far as I can gather.
A Government founded upon justice, and recognizing the equal rights of all men; claiming higher authority for existence, or sanction for its laws, that nature, reason, and the regularly ascertained will of the people; steadily refusing to put its sword and purse in the service of any religious creed or family is a standing offense to most of the Governments of the world, and to some narrow and bigoted people among ourselves.
F. Douglass
Post Reply