The Walls Come Down: No Travel Betwen US and Europe for 30 Days

[ray245]

Now's the perfect time for governments to buy up inactive wells, inactive refineries, etc. and shut them down in favor of greener solutions. Yes, demand will come back sharply after this is over and there may even be shortages as everybody races off to get to anywhere but where they've been holed up, but now's the best time to make a lasting change.

Green solutions need to be able to generate as much jobs as the fossil fuel industry does, otherwise sheer desperation to revive the economy might us even more dependent on fossil fuel.

The industries that relies heavily on fossil fuel like tourism and etc cannot switch to green solutions that easily.

Ideally that would be the case but even if it's only a 20% replacement we should act. We simply can't keep letting the economy hold the environment hostage.

And what's going to happen if unemployment continues to remain at a high level? Economic instability can have massive political consequences. You can't make much of an environmental impact if all it does is enable more right-wingers to climb to power.

[Coop D'etat]

Oil based autocracies aren't going to get away from the source of their power any time soon and the world economy isn't geared to let that happen. What happens in a 100 years isn't much important to a dictatorship trying to stay alive, in power and playing power games over the next decade. Meanwhile, oil is still too useful to do away with compared to its alternatives, unlike for example, electricity production where coal can easily be replaced and natural gas can be potentially phased out.

In theory you could shutter domestic NA production, but that would be very expensive for very little in the way of CO2 emissions reductions, because crude oil is a liquid, global market and local reductions are compensated by increases elsewhere.


Oil consumption and burning is a demand side problem. Unfortunately you're seeing this through the blinkered lens of the NA environmental left who use oil companies as a convenient political target and aren't much on the actual economics. This goes back to our previous discussions on why blocking pipelines is expensive and ineffective at its stated goals while carbon taxes are cheaper and good but much less easy to put on a bumper sticker.

[Agent Sorchus]

The more inforned view is that this has been caused by the Russians who are trying to force exactly this situation on US oil producers and the Saudi's are trying to get the Russians to blink.

The informed view is that Russia totally wanted to get buttfucked in a price war with Saudi Arabia at the same time as global oil demand has tanked, forcing them to slash productivity of the far and away largest sector of their economy.

This is why I called you ignorant. This is not speculative, we know that Russia is wanting to get into a production/price war with Saudi Arabia. Besides that article the most recent chart for production data that I easily found online only went through Dec 2019 and was only 10.87M barrels a day but the production figure in the bloomberg article above had an 11.29M barrels a day figure. Showing that the production cut OPEC was asking for of 1.5M a day was asking Russia to cut 10% of last years daily production.

Here is the other part you don't understand. Russia started this price war, all it would take for them to get out of it would be tell OPEC that the production demands would be followed and bow out of this little price war. BUT here you come with a totally dumbass interpretation of TRUMP saying that he is a Russian stooge who wants to end this price war by opening the US.

NO

TRUMP is not in Russia's pocket, he is just an evil narcissistic oligarch just like 100% of US national politicians.

The only reason I jumped on this comment is that it is apologist for TRUMP, putting the blame for the horrid comments asking people to die for the stock market in Russia instead. The fact that you cannot understand that this is why I needed to say it in the first place.


But this is not a politics thread and is not even on topic for COVID-19 since this isn't even caused by COVID-19.

[Coop D'etat]

As I understand it, Russian oil can't just be turned on and off, stopping production risks major and expensive damage to West Siberian wells. So once the price war started prior to the pandemic, they were pot committed and in the short run its cheaper for them to give the stuff away than stop production. So the Russians are more or less pot committed at this point, unlike the Saudis who can turn things on and off relatively easily.

[mr friendly guy]

Another airline goes into administration. This time Australia's Virgin. I haven't personally flown them for ages (I travel more internationally than domestic) so less likely to fly Virgin, but this won't be good for competition.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/ ... s/12167814

[Zaune]

On a less relentlessly depressing note, apparently Idris Elba got a lot of attention on social media for suggesting the world should hold an annual seven-day lockdown in rememberance of the pandemic.

Anyone else think that's actually not a completely terrible idea? I can't be the only person who would have appreciated the change of pace if it wasn't for all the death and human suffering.

[bilateralrope]

Another airline goes into administration. This time Australia's Virgin. I haven't personally flown them for ages (I travel more internationally than domestic) so less likely to fly Virgin, but this won't be good for competition.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/ ... s/12167814

Two states are fighting over which of them is going to bail it out.

'Bring a bazooka!' Virgin Australia at centre of heated battle between NSW and QLD govts

20/04/2020
Dan Lake

Struggling airline Virgin Australia has found itself in the odd position of having two different state governments fighting over which of them will bail the airline out of its current financial crisis.

Following an offer from the New South Wales (NSW) government to give financial assistance to the airline in return for moving their operations to a different airport, a minister from the Queensland state government has told NSW to "back off".

NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet has offered the airline millions of dollars if it agrees to move its operations to Sydney, but Queensland's State Development Minister Cameron Dick issued a warning to their State of Origin rivals at the same time as offering the airline $200 million if they remained in Queensland.

"Can I just say this to the NSW Treasurer - back off, back right off, just don't go there," Dick said.

"NSW might want to bring a peashooter to the fight, that's fine, we'll bring a bazooka and we're not afraid to use it."

Perrottet said any payment to the airline from the NSW government would be conditional on the airline moving their headquarters to Badgerys Creek west of Sydney.

With the interest from NSW to move the airline to Sydney from Brisbane, the bidding war could be just what Virgin Australia needs to get back in the air.
"If the world knows one thing it knows this: there is nothing more dangerous than Queenslanders with their backs to the wall," Dick told media.
Virgin Australia recently grounded most of its aircraft and closed its New Zealand bases permanently due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

[loomer]

Nearly 2000 inmates in an Ohio prison of 2500 have tested positive for the Vid. Nearly 5% of all state inmates in Ohio have contracted the disease now. We can expect higher death tolls out of the prison system than in most of the rest of the state, so, you know. I don't want to hear about how DeWine's been doing a good job when the Vid is ripping through the prison system.

Lots of people in close proximity to each other see high rates of transmission. You'll note that the populations in question are being treated, and managed both in the facilities, and outside of said facilities.

What, pray tell, would you have had the State of Ohio do differently given the conditions on the ground?

The mass release of all non-violent, non-terrorism offenders and the expedited release of offenders with between 1 and 5 years remaining on their sentences, depending on the risk they pose to public safety. But this needed to happen weeks ago.

And, since I forgot to initially include it since I was distracted, there would of course need to be the provision of accommodation and basic necessities to anyone released who lacks stable housing waiting for them. Hotels are a good option.

[TimothyC]

The mass release of all non-violent, non-terrorism offenders and the expedited release of offenders with between 1 and 5 years remaining on their sentences, depending on the risk they pose to public safety. But this needed to happen weeks ago.

What Ohio has been doing for the last several weeks is going through and applying various criteria (non-violence, first time, good behavior, ect) to those with less than 90 days left prior to release, and processing those for consideration of early release. There has been noise about extending it to 180 days, and maybe further, but they are not there yet. And yeah, evaluating the cases takes time. Your idea? Not legal under the current framework.

[loomer]

The mass release of all non-violent, non-terrorism offenders and the expedited release of offenders with between 1 and 5 years remaining on their sentences, depending on the risk they pose to public safety. But this needed to happen weeks ago.

What Ohio has been doing for the last several weeks is going through and applying various criteria (non-violence, first time, good behavior, ect) to those with less than 90 days left prior to release, and processing those for consideration of early release. There has been noise about extending it to 180 days, and maybe further, but they are not there yet. And yeah, evaluating the cases takes time. Your idea? Not legal under the current framework.

I'm aware. But it's also a simple fact that Ohio's approach hasn't been fast enough or sufficient. It's why the prisons are still mostly full.

[The Romulan Republic]

Oil is now worth less than nothing. I'm sure that bodes all kind of economic misfortunes, but still. Couldn't have happened to a nicer industry.

[aerius]

Oil is now worth less than nothing. I'm sure that bodes all kind of economic misfortunes, but still. Couldn't have happened to a nicer industry.

You clearly don't know how oil futures contracts work.

[The Romulan Republic]

Polling shows 58% of Americans support maintaining stay at home restrictions:

https://nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-p ... s-n1187011

WASHINGTON — Nearly 60 percent of American voters say they are more concerned that relaxing stay-at-home restrictions would lead to more COVID-19 deaths than they are that the restrictions will hurt the U.S. economy, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But while strong majorities of Democrats and independents are more worried about the coronavirus than the economy, Republicans are divided on the question, with almost half of them more concerned about how the restrictions could affect the economy.

The poll also finds a significant change in attitudes about the coronavirus. The percentage of voters saying they're worried that a family member might catch it has increased by 20 points since last month's survey.

And those saying the coronavirus has changed their families' day-to-day lives in a major way has jumped by more than 50 points from the March NBC News/WSJ poll.

So much else has stayed steady in the midst of the pandemic — President Donald Trump's job rating remains unchanged in the mid-40s, a majority continues to disapprove of the president's handling of the coronavirus, and Trump is still trailing apparent Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the race for the White House.

"We have not seen a change at all" for Trump, said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his colleagues at Hart Research Associates.

But Hart cautions that a long-lasting crisis could change things for the president.

"In every crisis, we go through this coming-together phase. And then we come to the recrimination phase," he said.

"President Trump faces some tough sledding ahead in the recrimination phase."

The NBC News/WSJ poll was conducted April 13 to 15 during a national debate over when to reopen the country amid the spread of the coronavirus that has killed more than 35,000 people in the U.S.

On Thursday, Trump announced federal guidelines that essentially leave it up to the states to decide when to begin pullbacks from stay-at-home orders.

Then, on Friday, Trump tweeted at states with Democratic governors who have instituted stay-at-home orders.

"LIBERATE MINNESOTA!" the president said.

In the poll, 58 percent of registered voters say that what worries them more is that the U.S. will move too quickly to loosen stay-at-home restrictions, resulting in the coronavirus' spreading and more lives' being lost.

That's compared with 32 percent who are more concerned that the U.S. will take too long to loosen restrictions, which will harm the economy.

McInturff, the GOP pollster, said the numbers represent a "powerful signal" that the country isn't ready for business as usual on May 1.

But there's also a familiar partisan divide inside the numbers: While 77 percent of Democratic respondents and 57 percent of independents are more worried about the coronavirus than the economy, Republicans are divided — with 48 percent expressing more concern about the economy and 39 percent more worried about the coronavirus.

Half of voters say they don't trust Trump's coronavirus statements
Also in the poll, 44 percent of voters say they approve of Trump's handling of the coronavirus, while 52 percent disapprove.

That's essentially unchanged from March, when 45 percent gave the president a thumbs-up and 51 percent gave him a thumbs-down.

Trump's overall job rating stands at 46 percent who approve and 51 percent who disapprove, which is identical to his score in March and consistent with his numbers over the past two years.

Only 36 percent of respondents in the poll say they generally trust what Trump has said when it comes to the coronavirus, while 52 percent say they don't trust him.

By comparison, 69 percent say they trust the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 66 percent trust their own governors; 60 percent trust Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert; 46 percent trust New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo; and 35 percent trust Vice President Mike Pence.


The numbers for Biden are 26 percent who trust, 29 percent who don't trust and 42 percent who aren't aware of his coronavirus statements or who don't have an opinion.

As for the federal government's response to the coronavirus, 50 percent of voters say they're satisfied with the measures intended to limit the disease's spread, versus 48 percent who are dissatisfied.

But just 34 percent are satisfied with the federal government's ensuring that there are enough tests to limit its spread, and only 34 percent are satisfied with the amount of medical supplies.

'A sea change' in attitudes about the coronavirus
The NBC News/WSJ poll also shows how the past month has changed Americans' attitudes about the coronavirus.

In March, 53 percent of voters said they were worried that someone in their immediate family would catch the disease. Now it's 73 percent.

Also in March, a combined 26 percent said the coronavirus has changed their day-to-day lives in a "very" or "fairly" major way. Now it's 77 percent.

And in a CNBC poll conducted in early April by the same polling firms, 27 percent said they personally know someone infected by the coronavirus. Now, just more than a week later, it's 40 percent.

"Socially and economically, we have seen a sea change in attitudes in just a month," said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.

Biden maintains lead over Trump in White House race
In the race for the White House, the NBC News/WSJ poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points nationally among registered voters, 49 percent to 42 percent.

That's down from Biden's 9-point advantage last month, 52 percent to 43 percent, although the change is well within the poll's margin of error.

Download the NBC News app for breaking news and politics

Looking inside the overall numbers, Biden's biggest advantages are with African American voters (among whom he leads Trump by 85 percent to 7 percent), Latinos (60 percent to 26 percent), voters ages 18-34 (54 percent to 31 percent), women (56 percent to 35 percent) and whites with college degrees (55 percent to 37 percent).

Trump's greatest strengths are with white voters (51 percent to 42 percent), men (50 percent to 41 percent) and whites without college degrees (60 percent to 33 percent).

Among independents, Biden is ahead of Trump by just 1 point, 43 percent to 42 percent.

And when the race is reduced to 11 swing states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden holds a combined 6-point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Biden also leads Trump by 9 points on which candidate would better handle a crisis (47 percent to 38 percent) and by 9 points on who would better handle the coronavirus (45 percent to 36 percent).

But Trump leads Biden by 11 points on which candidate would better handle the economy (47 percent to 36 percent).

Pessimism grows about the state of the economy
Yet voters are much more pessimistic about the economy than they were a month ago.

In the new poll, a plurality of 45 percent describe the economy as being poor, which is up more than 20 points since March.

That's the highest percentage of respondents calling the economy poor in the NBC News/WSJ poll since 2012.

Thirty-one percent rate the economy as being "only fair," and a combined 22 percent say it's either "excellent" or "good" — down 25 points from last month.

The NBC News/WSJ poll was conducted April 13-15 of 900 registered voters — more than half of whom who were reached by cellphone — and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points.

By American standards, getting 58% on almost anything is a landslide.

[Eulogy]

By American standards, getting 58% on almost anything is a landslide.

I don't want to presume anything, but some of the Covidiots dying off might have swung the poll that way.

[Broomstick]

Oil is now worth less than nothing. I'm sure that bodes all kind of economic misfortunes, but still. Couldn't have happened to a nicer industry.

You clearly don't know how oil futures contracts work.

So.... should we expect deflation to kick in soon, or is the oil thing the first sign of it?

[bilateralrope]

Here in New Zealand, the leader of our main opposition party (the National party) put up a Facebook post criticising the government for extending the level 4 lockdown by 5 days:

The decision for New Zealand to stay locked down in Level 4 shows the Government hasn’t done the groundwork required to have us ready.

The public has done a great job of self-isolating and social distancing. The entire country has made huge sacrifices to ensure the four week lockdown was effective.

Unfortunately the Government hasn’t done enough and isn’t ready by its own standards and rhetoric.

New Zealand is being held back because the Government has not used this time to ensure best practice of testing and tracing and the availability of PPE hasn’t been at the standard it should have been.

The rate of testing for the first half of lockdown was low, work has only just begun on surveillance testing to confirm whether community transmission is occurring. Tracing is the biggest challenge and experts have identified major shortcomings in the methods being used by the Government.

This is a real shame as businesses will suffer further damage and that will lead to poor health outcomes as a result of the huge stress this will cause for a lot of people.

Rapid and easily accessible testing for workers with symptoms will be essential to give small businesses the confidence needed to get back to work.

I’m sure many Kiwis feel frustration that we still can’t do many things Australians have done through the entire lockdown period, at great cost in terms of jobs and livelihoods, with similar health outcomes.

I now worry that the harm of staying in lockdown will be greater than if we were to come out. We will no doubt see a rise in mental health problems and stress related illnesses.

I also have real concerns about the delay in healthcare for some people, like cancer treatment, screening and thousands of operations across the country.

New Zealanders can be proud of the sacrifices they have made during this difficult time. The Government must now move as fast as it can to sort out the issues with tracing, testing and PPE so we can get our country moving again.

That got a lot of backlash:
National supporters threaten to abandon Simon Bridges after Facebook post criticising COVID-19 lockdown extension

Opposition leader Simon Bridges is defending a Facebook post he published criticising the extended COVID-19 lockdown after it received a flood of negative comments from National supporters.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced on Monday that the alert level 4 lockdown had been extended for a week, and Bridges responded on Facebook by criticising the Government's response, prompting backlash in the comment section.

"Simon, I'm a National supporter but don't support what you've just said at all," one woman said. "Your comments are not doing you any favours. I'm glad the Government has allowed a week for businesses, workplaces and schools time to prepare."

Bridges, who leads the National Party, brushed off the criticism on Tuesday by insisting there will "be a bunch of different views" online and that people are "entitled" to those views.

The Facebook post he published accused the Government of not doing enough to prepare the country to come out of alert level 4. It also pointed to Australia where industries like retail and manufacturing have been able to continue.

"I'm sure many Kiwis feel frustration that we still can't do many things Australians have done through the entire lockdown period, at great cost in terms of jobs and livelihoods, with similar health outcomes," Bridges said.

"I now worry that the harm of staying in lockdown will be greater than if we were to come out. We will no doubt see a rise in mental health problems and stress related illnesses."

Newshub looked through the comments on Bridges' Facebook post and found that people who appear to be legitimate National Party supporters are backing the Government en masse and its decision to extend the lockdown for a week.

Out of the 100 most recent comments on the post at the time of viewing it, Newshub found that four were in favour of the Opposition leader's remarks while 96 were opposed.

"My National vote is quickly turning because of your attitude Simon Bridges. You are acting like a child," a Christchurch man wrote in the comment section. "Your days are numbered as leader. Every time you open your mouth you are losing voters."

An Auckland woman who works at a dental centre wrote: "I'm a National supporter but think the PM has made the right decision. I'm in a high risk industry that won't be able to operate fully until we are in level 1.

"Level 2 would be with restrictions due to the risk of transmission in the industry and I'm definitely not prepared to risk mine or my [family's] health. What is money if you don't have your health?"

There was some support for Bridges, including a Waikato man, who said: "Agree with you Simon. Not enough time spent on the economic side of things. Businesses are going to fail over this extra two and a half weeks."

Bridges said he has "real concerns" about the delay in healthcare for some people, like cancer treatment, screening and thousands of operations across the country that were put on hold to manage the COVID-19 outbreak.

He said Kiwis can be "proud of the sacrifices they have made during this difficult time", but said the Government must improve contact tracing, testing and the availability of personal protective equipment (PPE) to "get our country moving again".

Bridges said the negative views online are "more than matched by over 50,000 people who contacted me in relation to our quarantining petition" - an idea that was adopted by the Government.

"Of the many thousands who've emailed me as small business people, some of them bring me to tears the way they beg for help in this instance when they do feel like sacrificial lambs," Bridges said.

The Ministry of Health confirmed just five new cases of the coronavirus on Tuesday, bringing the total number of cases to 1445, while the death toll has risen to 13 after a woman in her 70s with the virus passed away.

And now there are rumors that he might get replaced as leader of the National party.

This says good things about how kiwis feel about the lockdown.

[aerius]

So.... should we expect deflation to kick in soon, or is the oil thing the first sign of it?

Inflation in the things you need, deflation in the things you don't need. Necessities of life like food & shelter become expensive as hell, luxuries like dock space for your yacht gets real cheap. Pretty much the playbook in every depression.

[mr friendly guy]

An organisation known as Nursing Notes has reported that more than 100+ nurses and social workers (not counting other medical staff) has died from covid 19 in the UK. What I hear, the UK is only reporting 27 have died.

https://nursingnotes.co.uk/covid-19-mem ... TrojVcwKKk

Saw this on RT, but since people prefer mainstream sources, the Guardian is reporting the same thing ie official 27 have died but Nursing Notes has reported more than 100 have died.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... gures-show

Quick guys, the UK numbers cannot be trusted. I mean wasn't Boris the guy that arranged a bus talking about 350 million pounds for the NHS if they just did Brexit, and then walked it back?

[The Romulan Republic]

I don't think anyone here trusts Boris "Herd Immunity" Johnson.

[aerius]

Lethality of different strains confirmed
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... nese-study

Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds

The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type
New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States

Stephen Chen
Stephen Chen in Beijing
Published: 10:41pm, 20 Apr, 2020

A new study by one of China’s top scientists has found the ability of the new coronavirus
to mutate has been vastly underestimated and different strains may account for different impacts of the disease in various parts of the world.

Professor Li Lanjuan and her colleagues from Zhejiang University found within a small pool of patients many mutations not previously reported. These mutations included changes so rare that scientists had never considered they might occur.
They also confirmed for the first time with laboratory evidence that certain mutations could create strains deadlier
than others.

“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li and her collaborators wrote in a non-peer reviewed paper released on preprint service medRxiv.org on Sunday.

Li’s study provided the first hard evidence that mutation could affect how severely the virus caused disease or damage in its host.

Li took an unusual approach to investigate the virus mutation. She analysed the viral strains isolated from 11 randomly chosen Covid-19 patients from Hangzhou in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington state, according to their paper.

A separate study had found that New York strains had been imported from Europe. The death rate in New York was similar to that in many European countries, if not worse.

But the weaker mutation did not mean a lower risk for everybody, according to Li’s study. In Zhejiang, two patients in their 30s and 50s who contracted the weaker strain became severely ill. Although both survived in the end, the elder patient needed treatment in an intensive care unit.

A team led by Professor Li Lanjuan has studied how the novel coronavirus mutates and possible implications for the pandemic. Photo: EPA-EFEA team led by Professor Li Lanjuan has studied how the novel coronavirus mutates and possible implications for the pandemic. Photo: EPA-EFE
A team led by Professor Li Lanjuan has studied how the novel coronavirus mutates and possible implications for the pandemic. Photo: EPA-EFE
A new study by one of China’s top scientists has found the ability of the new coronavirus
to mutate has been vastly underestimated and different strains may account for different impacts of the disease in various parts of the world.

Professor Li Lanjuan and her colleagues from Zhejiang University found within a small pool of patients many mutations not previously reported. These mutations included changes so rare that scientists had never considered they might occur.
They also confirmed for the first time with laboratory evidence that certain mutations could create strains deadlier
than others.

“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li and her collaborators wrote in a non-peer reviewed paper released on preprint service medRxiv.org on Sunday.

Li’s study provided the first hard evidence that mutation could affect how severely the virus caused disease or damage in its host.

Li took an unusual approach to investigate the virus mutation. She analysed the viral strains isolated from 11 randomly chosen Covid-19 patients from Hangzhou in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington state, according to their paper.
Coronavirus Update
Get updates direct to your inbox
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy

A separate study had found that New York strains had been imported from Europe. The death rate in New York was similar to that in many European countries, if not worse.

But the weaker mutation did not mean a lower risk for everybody, according to Li’s study. In Zhejiang, two patients in their 30s and 50s who contracted the weaker strain became severely ill. Although both survived in the end, the elder patient needed treatment in an intensive care unit.

This finding could shed light on differences in regional mortality. The pandemic’s infection and death rates vary from one country to another, and many explanations have been proposed.

Genetic scientists had noticed that the dominant strains in different geographic regions were inherently different. Some researchers suspected the varying mortality rates could, in part, be caused by mutations but they had no direct proof.

The issue was further complicated because survival rates depended on many factors, such as age, underlying health conditions or even blood type.

In hospitals, Covid-19 has been treated as one disease and patients have received the same treatment regardless of the strain they have. Li and her colleagues suggested that defining mutations in a region might determine actions to fight the virus.

“Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, need to take the impact of these accumulating mutations … into account to avoid potential pitfalls,” they said.

Li was the first scientist to propose the Wuhan lockdown,
according to state media reports. The government followed her advice and in late January, the city of more than 11 million residents was shut down overnight.

The sample size in this most recent study was remarkably small. Other studies tracking the virus mutation usually involved hundreds, or even thousands, of strains.

Li’s team detected more than 30 mutations. Among them 19 mutations – or about 60 per cent – were new.

They found some of these mutations could lead to functional changes in the virus’ spike protein, a unique structure over the viral envelope enabling the coronavirus to bind with human cells. Computer simulation predicted that these mutations would increase its infectivity.

To verify the theory, Li and colleagues infected cells with strains carrying different mutations. The most aggressive strains could generate 270 times as much viral load as the weakest type. These strains also killed the cells the fastest.

It was an unexpected result from fewer than a dozen patients, “indicating that the true diversity of the viral strains is still largely underappreciated,” Li wrote in the paper.
Professor Li Lanjuan is a leading Chinese epidemiologist. Photo: Xinhua
Professor Li Lanjuan is a leading Chinese epidemiologist. Photo: Xinhua

The mutations were genes different from the earliest strain isolated in Wuhan, where the virus was first detected in late December last year.

The coronavirus changes at an average speed of about one mutation per month. By Monday, more than 10,000 strains had been sequenced by scientists around the globe, containing more than 4,300 mutations, according to the China National Centre for Bioinformation.

Most of these samples, though, were sequenced by a standard approach that could generate a result quickly. The genes were read just once, for instance, and there was room for mistakes.

Li’s team used a more sophisticated method known as ultra-deep sequencing. Each building block of the virus genome was read more than 100 times, allowing the researchers to see changes that could have been overlooked by the conventional approach.

The researchers also found three consecutive changes – known as tri-nucleotide mutations – in a 60-year-old patient, which was a rare event. Usually the genes mutated at one site at a time. This patient spent more than 50 days in hospital, much longer than other Covid-19 patients, and even his faeces were infectious with living viral strains.

“Investigating the functional impact of this tri-nucleotide mutation would be highly interesting,” Li and colleagues said in the paper.

Professor Zhang Xuegong, head of the bioinformatics division at the National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology at Tsinghua University, said ultra-deep sequencing could be an effective strategy to track the virus’ mutation.

“It can produce some useful information,” he said.

But this approach could be much more time consuming and costly. It was unlikely to be applied to all samples.

“Our understanding of the virus remains quite shallow,” Zhang said. Questions such as where the virus came from, why it could kill some healthy young people while generating no detectable symptoms in many others still left scientists scratching their heads.

“If there is a discovery that overturns the prevailing perception, don’t be surprised.”

We're gonna have some really shitty choices to make in North America. If we continue the lockdowns, the East Coast strain is going to keep spreading and kill a shitload of people since all the containment measures to date have failed to bring R0 below 1 and there's no vaccine in sight. Or we open up in a way that promotes the spread of the less deadly West Coast strain and allows it to decisively out-compete the East Coast variant, which still kills a ton of people but results in fewer deaths than allowing both strains to spread & compete naturally.

Basically, it's like using a backfire to create a firebreak and contain the main fire. We allow the less deadly strain to go through and provide herd immunity to contain the more deadly East Coast strain.

[The Romulan Republic]

TRUMP is not in Russia's pocket, he is just an evil narcissistic oligarch just like 100% of US national politicians.

The trite, cynical stereotype that all politicians are equally corrupt is the single most effective piece of propaganda for authoritarianism in our time. It erases nuance and meaningful evaluation of candidates and policies, encourages voters to disengage from the democratic system and turn to either extremism or apathy, and it normalizes the worst players by putting them on an equal footing with the best. Its an absolutely poisonous, toxic narrative, all the more because it masks itself behind a veneer of "fairness".

Not surprised to see it from the mouth of a collusion denier/Putin apologist- its one of the favorite tools of Lord Vladimort and his internet lemmings.

The only reason I jumped on this comment is that it is apologist for TRUMP, putting the blame for the horrid comments asking people to die for the stock market in Russia instead. The fact that you cannot understand that this is why I needed to say it in the first place.

Trump shares the blame for Putin's crimes, and Putin for Trump's. They are two parts of the same machine (I place no blame on either the Russian or American people collectively).

[Coop D'etat]

Lethality of different strains confirmed
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... nese-study

Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds

The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type
New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States

Stephen Chen
Stephen Chen in Beijing
Published: 10:41pm, 20 Apr, 2020

A new study by one of China’s top scientists has found the ability of the new coronavirus
to mutate has been vastly underestimated and different strains may account for different impacts of the disease in various parts of the world.

Professor Li Lanjuan and her colleagues from Zhejiang University found within a small pool of patients many mutations not previously reported. These mutations included changes so rare that scientists had never considered they might occur.
They also confirmed for the first time with laboratory evidence that certain mutations could create strains deadlier
than others.

“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li and her collaborators wrote in a non-peer reviewed paper released on preprint service medRxiv.org on Sunday.

Li’s study provided the first hard evidence that mutation could affect how severely the virus caused disease or damage in its host.

Li took an unusual approach to investigate the virus mutation. She analysed the viral strains isolated from 11 randomly chosen Covid-19 patients from Hangzhou in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington state, according to their paper.

A separate study had found that New York strains had been imported from Europe. The death rate in New York was similar to that in many European countries, if not worse.

But the weaker mutation did not mean a lower risk for everybody, according to Li’s study. In Zhejiang, two patients in their 30s and 50s who contracted the weaker strain became severely ill. Although both survived in the end, the elder patient needed treatment in an intensive care unit.

A team led by Professor Li Lanjuan has studied how the novel coronavirus mutates and possible implications for the pandemic. Photo: EPA-EFEA team led by Professor Li Lanjuan has studied how the novel coronavirus mutates and possible implications for the pandemic. Photo: EPA-EFE
A team led by Professor Li Lanjuan has studied how the novel coronavirus mutates and possible implications for the pandemic. Photo: EPA-EFE
A new study by one of China’s top scientists has found the ability of the new coronavirus
to mutate has been vastly underestimated and different strains may account for different impacts of the disease in various parts of the world.

Professor Li Lanjuan and her colleagues from Zhejiang University found within a small pool of patients many mutations not previously reported. These mutations included changes so rare that scientists had never considered they might occur.
They also confirmed for the first time with laboratory evidence that certain mutations could create strains deadlier
than others.

“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li and her collaborators wrote in a non-peer reviewed paper released on preprint service medRxiv.org on Sunday.

Li’s study provided the first hard evidence that mutation could affect how severely the virus caused disease or damage in its host.

Li took an unusual approach to investigate the virus mutation. She analysed the viral strains isolated from 11 randomly chosen Covid-19 patients from Hangzhou in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington state, according to their paper.
Coronavirus Update
Get updates direct to your inbox
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy

A separate study had found that New York strains had been imported from Europe. The death rate in New York was similar to that in many European countries, if not worse.

But the weaker mutation did not mean a lower risk for everybody, according to Li’s study. In Zhejiang, two patients in their 30s and 50s who contracted the weaker strain became severely ill. Although both survived in the end, the elder patient needed treatment in an intensive care unit.

This finding could shed light on differences in regional mortality. The pandemic’s infection and death rates vary from one country to another, and many explanations have been proposed.

Genetic scientists had noticed that the dominant strains in different geographic regions were inherently different. Some researchers suspected the varying mortality rates could, in part, be caused by mutations but they had no direct proof.

The issue was further complicated because survival rates depended on many factors, such as age, underlying health conditions or even blood type.

In hospitals, Covid-19 has been treated as one disease and patients have received the same treatment regardless of the strain they have. Li and her colleagues suggested that defining mutations in a region might determine actions to fight the virus.

“Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, need to take the impact of these accumulating mutations … into account to avoid potential pitfalls,” they said.

Li was the first scientist to propose the Wuhan lockdown,
according to state media reports. The government followed her advice and in late January, the city of more than 11 million residents was shut down overnight.

The sample size in this most recent study was remarkably small. Other studies tracking the virus mutation usually involved hundreds, or even thousands, of strains.

Li’s team detected more than 30 mutations. Among them 19 mutations – or about 60 per cent – were new.

They found some of these mutations could lead to functional changes in the virus’ spike protein, a unique structure over the viral envelope enabling the coronavirus to bind with human cells. Computer simulation predicted that these mutations would increase its infectivity.

To verify the theory, Li and colleagues infected cells with strains carrying different mutations. The most aggressive strains could generate 270 times as much viral load as the weakest type. These strains also killed the cells the fastest.

It was an unexpected result from fewer than a dozen patients, “indicating that the true diversity of the viral strains is still largely underappreciated,” Li wrote in the paper.
Professor Li Lanjuan is a leading Chinese epidemiologist. Photo: Xinhua
Professor Li Lanjuan is a leading Chinese epidemiologist. Photo: Xinhua

The mutations were genes different from the earliest strain isolated in Wuhan, where the virus was first detected in late December last year.

The coronavirus changes at an average speed of about one mutation per month. By Monday, more than 10,000 strains had been sequenced by scientists around the globe, containing more than 4,300 mutations, according to the China National Centre for Bioinformation.

Most of these samples, though, were sequenced by a standard approach that could generate a result quickly. The genes were read just once, for instance, and there was room for mistakes.

Li’s team used a more sophisticated method known as ultra-deep sequencing. Each building block of the virus genome was read more than 100 times, allowing the researchers to see changes that could have been overlooked by the conventional approach.

The researchers also found three consecutive changes – known as tri-nucleotide mutations – in a 60-year-old patient, which was a rare event. Usually the genes mutated at one site at a time. This patient spent more than 50 days in hospital, much longer than other Covid-19 patients, and even his faeces were infectious with living viral strains.

“Investigating the functional impact of this tri-nucleotide mutation would be highly interesting,” Li and colleagues said in the paper.

Professor Zhang Xuegong, head of the bioinformatics division at the National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology at Tsinghua University, said ultra-deep sequencing could be an effective strategy to track the virus’ mutation.

“It can produce some useful information,” he said.

But this approach could be much more time consuming and costly. It was unlikely to be applied to all samples.

“Our understanding of the virus remains quite shallow,” Zhang said. Questions such as where the virus came from, why it could kill some healthy young people while generating no detectable symptoms in many others still left scientists scratching their heads.

“If there is a discovery that overturns the prevailing perception, don’t be surprised.”

We're gonna have some really shitty choices to make in North America. If we continue the lockdowns, the East Coast strain is going to keep spreading and kill a shitload of people since all the containment measures to date have failed to bring R0 below 1 and there's no vaccine in sight. Or we open up in a way that promotes the spread of the less deadly West Coast strain and allows it to decisively out-compete the East Coast variant, which still kills a ton of people but results in fewer deaths than allowing both strains to spread & compete naturally.

Basically, it's like using a backfire to create a firebreak and contain the main fire. We allow the less deadly strain to go through and provide herd immunity to contain the more deadly East Coast strain.

There's huge downside risks to that approach. If the strains have mutated enough to have such different virulence, different strains may not confer immunity. Basically you're suggesting a very inept mass variolation. You'd be better off mass inoculating with an untested vaccine.

[Zaune]

An organisation known as Nursing Notes has reported that more than 100+ nurses and social workers (not counting other medical staff) has died from covid 19 in the UK. What I hear, the UK is only reporting 27 have died.

https://nursingnotes.co.uk/covid-19-mem ... TrojVcwKKk

Saw this on RT, but since people prefer mainstream sources, the Guardian is reporting the same thing ie official 27 have died but Nursing Notes has reported more than 100 have died.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... gures-show

Quick guys, the UK numbers cannot be trusted. I mean wasn't Boris the guy that arranged a bus talking about 350 million pounds for the NHS if they just did Brexit, and then walked it back?

I wouldn't attribute all of it to Tory skullduggery. At least some of the underreporting could likely be explained by cases where the cause of death is ambiguous because of underlying conditions. Suppose an ICU nurse in their late fifties with a known medical history of cardiac issues has tested positive, but still only has early-stage symptoms when they suffer a fatal heart attack, for example: COVID-19 can apparently attack the heart, but frankly so can the incredible stress the victim must have been under in the last couple of months, and without going through a full autopsy it could go either way.

If there's any massaging of figures going on, something the Conservative Party do admittedly have form for, it's probably taking the form of only reporting cases where the cause of death is proven beyond reasonable doubt rather than just highly likely.

[aerius]

There's huge downside risks to that approach. If the strains have mutated enough to have such different virulence, different strains may not confer immunity. Basically you're suggesting a very inept mass variolation. You'd be better off mass inoculating with an untested vaccine.

Yup, like I said, we only have shitty choices left. Keep in mind that at the current rate of spread and penetration based on the official confirmed numbers, which is an R0 of a bit under 1.4, an infected population of 0.1-0.2% of the total population, plus a generation time of 5 days or so, pretty much everyone will be infected in 3-4 months. There is no possible vaccine in that time frame.

As you said, the West Coast strain may not confer immunity to the other variants, but if it does it then letting it spread may be the least bad option. Even if the immunity is limited it still results in fewer overall deaths.

There is one other option and that's cutting of the disease vectors to drop the R0 below 1 and eventually contain & limit the virus. Problem is other than through nursing homes & hospitals we really don't know or have a good idea of how this damn thing spreads.

[mr friendly guy]

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... irus-cases

Kentucky sees highest spike in coronavirus cases after protests against lockdown
This comes after a Louisville church filed a lawsuit against the state’s stay-at-home orders.

By
Alexandra Kelley

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) announced in a press conference Sunday that 273 new cases of COVID-19 had emerged, the highest Beshear has announced so far. This brings the current state case count to 2,960, per the Kentucky Department of Health. And 148 fatalities have been reported.

In response to this figure, Beshear determined that the state will not reopen economic sectors or relax restrictions until there is a downward trajectory of reported cases for 14 days, in accordance with White House guidelines.

“We’re still in the midst of the fight,” Beshear said.

This comes after protests surged in Frankfort last week against Beshear’s restrictions, disrupting an evening news conference. The Lexington Herald-Leader noted that about 100 Kentuckians joined the protest, arguing that businesses needed to reopen after more than 500,000 Kentuckians filed for unemployment in March.

America is changing by the minute. Add Changing America to your Facebook and Twitter feeds to stay informed on the latest news and smartest insights.

Local outlets report that at least 13 percent, or roughly 385, of COVID-19 cases have been recorded in nursing home residents. Beshear also told reporters Sunday that 33 additional residents have tested positive for the virus, as well as eight nursing home staffers.

Beshear noted that the state will need to increase testing and obtain more personal protective equipment (PPE) even if case numbers decline.

This follows news that Pastor Jack Roberts of the Maryville Baptist Church in Louisville filed a lawsuit against Beshear, claiming that enforcing a stay-at-home order on Easter violates the constitutional right to religious freedom. The church argued for Kentucky to allow in-person Christian services provided social distancing and hygienic rules are observed.

Beshear’s office put out a press release stating that anyone attending an in-person religious service during the coronavirus pandemic will be notified that it is a misdemeanor violation.