Brexit and General UK politics thread

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Thanas » 2017-12-05 12:33pm

From this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... der-lesson
But if we did not know already that this is fantasy, we know it now. The climbdown we are seeing on all three of the preliminary negotiating issues surely ends the illusions of all but the most deluded fanatics about Britain’s real position in the Brexit process. It is not in a position to make demands – certainly not demands that the EU destroy its whole raison d’etre by allowing a member state to leave the single market but still enjoy all its advantages.

It was always stupid to turn the border issue into a face-off between mighty Britain and little Ireland. But that’s how the hard Brexiters and their Tory press allies chose to construe it.

Having done so, they might now ask themselves: if, for the first time in 800 years, Ireland is proving to be in a much stronger political position than Britain, what does that say about what Brexit is doing to Britain’s strength? It is being forced to accept what it claimed to be unacceptable, not because Ireland has suddenly become a global superpower but because it has the unflinching support of EU member states, the European parliament, and the EU negotiating team. There might be a lesson in there somewhere for a country facing a future without the allies it has long taken for granted.



and from the comments on it:

These are unbelievable times. The British Prime Minister calls an ill-advised referendum to both placate and silence the right wing of his own party. He proceeds to lose that referendum, overnight devaluing the nation's assets by 20% and setting off a chain of events which may well lead to not only an exit from the EU without a deal and casting the country into a friendless international wilderness (the US special relationship being dead in the water). He resigns and his vanquishers turn on each other allowing a mediocre milquetoast to take the highest office in the land at a time of the greatest international challenges since WW2.

The new PM, who voted to remain, executes a volte-face and promises a successful Brexit, with no deal if necessary. In one of the worst political misjudgements in history, she calls a totally unnecessary general election, believing that she will wipe out her unpopular, beleaguered rival and gain the strongest hand possible in advance of the negotiations. Instead she runs the worst campaign in modern political history and loses her majority. Instead of running a minority government she chooses to get into bed with a party of Christian fundamentalists with antediluvian views on gay marriage whose raison d'être is to keep their province, the part with a future land border with the EU, in the UK at all costs- albeit a version of the UK set in 1950s aspic. Not only this, their own province did not vote for Brexit yet they see their own political leverage as more important than enacting the will of their constituents.

To add spice to the fiery mix, an openly gay half-Indian man then becomes PM of the country they long to keep separate from, and which they have long derided as a conservative theocratic backwater, and proceeds to run rings around the British PM.

Meanwhile the First Minister of Scotland, a wily political operator with every intention of steering her country out of the UK and keeping it in the EU, watches with barely disguised glee as the Brexit UK begins to disintegrate. In a further irony, the country she represents is the ancestral homeland of many of the Northern Irish Unionists, although it modern iteration wants to remain in the EU, and now has a stronger than ever argument to want to leave the UK.

To return to the UK electoral debacle, the British PM's electoral charge of the light brigade not only torpedoes her own majority but revitalises her moribund opponent, who enhanced and emboldened, goes on attack after attack and now looks odds on to succeed her as PM if and when her own bloodthirsty and fractious party stab her in the back.

It sounds like an extra dystopian modern take on Macbeth crossed with King Lear..
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by EnterpriseSovereign » 2017-12-05 01:37pm

I believe there was some talk of giving NI some sort of 'special status', only for Sturgeon to chime in saying if NI gets that, Scotland (who also voted remain) should get one too. The only success the Tories can claim from the last election is that the SNP were weakened as much as they were. Though the consequences are now being felt. Honestly if I wasn't a Brit in the UK I would be pointing and laughing.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Vendetta » 2017-12-05 04:28pm

EnterpriseSovereign wrote:
2017-12-05 01:37pm
I believe there was some talk of giving NI some sort of 'special status', only for Sturgeon to chime in saying if NI gets that, Scotland (who also voted remain) should get one too. The only success the Tories can claim from the last election is that the SNP were weakened as much as they were. Though the consequences are now being felt. Honestly if I wasn't a Brit in the UK I would be pointing and laughing.
Yeah, and also the Mayor of London and the First Minister of Wales wanted the same deal.

Except the DUP wouldn't accept it because it would mean a de-facto border between Northern Ireland and Britain (because Europe wouldn't accept goods manufactured under non-compliant regulations and we wouldn't accept European imports out of spite, and Northern Ireland would have to have completely seperate trade agreements and regulations to the rest of the UK because otherwise everything that was imported into the UK could enter Europe through Northern Ireland and anything brought across the border from Ireland could enter the UK).

And since they're propping up May's government they have the actual power.

It's a veritable tide of fuckwittery.

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Zaune » 2017-12-07 04:44am

Image

Found here.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by EnterpriseSovereign » 2017-12-07 12:33pm

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Thanas » 2017-12-08 03:57pm

So the UK has basically capitulated.

So they have to pay as much as before....but now won't get any votes on how the regulations are written.

Heck, she even agreed to pay everything in Euro.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by EnterpriseSovereign » 2017-12-08 04:40pm

My understanding was that in leaving the EU we were always going to lose any say on such things anyway?
It's no use debating a moron; they drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.

Just because you have the attention span of a fruit fly doesn't mean the rest of us are so encumbered.

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Juubi Karakuchi » 2017-12-08 08:56pm

As far as I can see, all May has done here is kick the can down the road and buy herself a few more days. If I understand correctly, she got round the Irish border issue by promising a new trade deal would make it irrelevant. That means the whole thing is now predicated on the outcome of the EU summit next week. As plenty of people have been saying, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

What's more, the DUP can still yank May's chain if they don't like the trade deal she's trying for, or the concessions she might try to make. She's not out of the woods yet.

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Thanas » 2017-12-09 07:55am

EnterpriseSovereign wrote:
2017-12-08 04:40pm
My understanding was that in leaving the EU we were always going to lose any say on such things anyway?
Yes but they would not have had to abide by those rules. Now they not only lose any say in how they are written, they have to obey anyway.

In essence, 50 bn payment to becoming an economic vassal.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Steel » 2017-12-09 09:46am

Thanas wrote:
2017-12-09 07:55am
EnterpriseSovereign wrote:
2017-12-08 04:40pm
My understanding was that in leaving the EU we were always going to lose any say on such things anyway?
Yes but they would not have had to abide by those rules. Now they not only lose any say in how they are written, they have to obey anyway.

In essence, 50 bn payment to becoming an economic vassal.
This is in many ways a great outcome. The soft brexit will mean as little as possible changes, with the exception that UKIP and our fuckwitted electorate have no say in EU laws, allowing the EU to progress faster.

For UK inhabitants this is second only to cancelling brexit, and might actually work out better for the EU.

For the moment I'm basking in the warm glow of the fact that it looks like Brexit voters are on track to get none of what they wanted and keep everything they didn't, all while they are made politically irrelevant. I'm sure there will be a spectacularly shitty follow up in a couple of days that reduces everything to a total shitshow, but right this minute the schadenfreude looks good.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Bedlam » 2017-12-09 10:42am

Steel wrote:
2017-12-09 09:46am
For the moment I'm basking in the warm glow of the fact that it looks like Brexit voters are on track to get none of what they wanted and keep everything they didn't, all while they are made politically irrelevant. I'm sure there will be a spectacularly shitty follow up in a couple of days that reduces everything to a total shitshow, but right this minute the schadenfreude looks good.
I voted for staying in the EU but I have to say I'm not really happy with this. You can talk about protest votes and not being given the truth of what they were voting for but the majority of the population who chose to vote voted to leave. Now being in a situation where as you said they don't get what they voted for an are considered irrelevant seems wrong, thanks for voting, your opinion is wrong and doesn't matter...

Would you feel quite so happy if things were the other way around, if the majority had voted to stay but the government had in some way twisted things around to get the UK kicked out of the EU?

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by EnterpriseSovereign » 2017-12-09 02:06pm

Now being in a situation where as you said they don't get what they voted for an are considered irrelevant seems wrong, thanks for voting, your opinion is wrong and doesn't matter...
Which is exactly how the 48% who voted remain (including myself and immediate family) felt when the result was announced.
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Just because you have the attention span of a fruit fly doesn't mean the rest of us are so encumbered.

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Zaune » 2017-12-09 02:08pm

Besides, you don't think it's going to be the Leave voters who have to suffer when the big day finally comes, do you?
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Crazedwraith » 2017-12-09 02:22pm

All the prominent Brexiteers are fine with this anyway apparently and all over the news crowing about how the EU blinked first in some kind of complete break from reality as I see it. Apparently saying you're right is more important than being right.

That said, the issue for me has always been there was never a clear consensus on what Brexit meant to start with. So it's hard to say 'the brexit voters aren't gettung what they wanted' because they're not all of one mind and what they wanted, and a good proportion of what the campaign said they wanted was flat out impossible anyway.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Vendetta » 2017-12-09 04:16pm

Zaune wrote:
2017-12-09 02:08pm
Besides, you don't think it's going to be the Leave voters who have to suffer when the big day finally comes, do you?
Overwhelmingly so, yes. The people who actually voted Leave are the people who are going to get the shit kicked out of them the hardest by the consequences of Brexit. The people they thought they were sticking it to ("The Establishment") are going to make out like bandits thanks to disaster capitalism.

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Bedlam » 2017-12-09 05:39pm

Zaune wrote:
2017-12-09 02:08pm
Besides, you don't think it's going to be the Leave voters who have to suffer when the big day finally comes, do you?
Well unless 52% of the population are leaving the UK, yes. Sure there are some high profile individuals who aren't going to suffer but most of those voters are going to be effected by their decision.
EnterpriseSovereign wrote:
2017-12-09 02:06pm
Now being in a situation where as you said they don't get what they voted for an are considered irrelevant seems wrong, thanks for voting, your opinion is wrong and doesn't matter...
Which is exactly how the 48% who voted remain (including myself and immediate family) felt when the result was announced.
That is the way a two choice vote will work, the minority don't get their way.

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by mr friendly guy » 2017-12-09 06:36pm

Bedlam wrote:
2017-12-09 10:42am
Steel wrote:
2017-12-09 09:46am
For the moment I'm basking in the warm glow of the fact that it looks like Brexit voters are on track to get none of what they wanted and keep everything they didn't, all while they are made politically irrelevant. I'm sure there will be a spectacularly shitty follow up in a couple of days that reduces everything to a total shitshow, but right this minute the schadenfreude looks good.
I voted for staying in the EU but I have to say I'm not really happy with this. You can talk about protest votes and not being given the truth of what they were voting for but the majority of the population who chose to vote voted to leave. Now being in a situation where as you said they don't get what they voted for an are considered irrelevant seems wrong, thanks for voting, your opinion is wrong and doesn't matter...

Would you feel quite so happy if things were the other way around, if the majority had voted to stay but the government had in some way twisted things around to get the UK kicked out of the EU?
This seems like an appropriate application of the old adage, be careful of what you wish for. One of the selling points of Brexit was that the UK was supposedly in a stronger negotiating position than the EU so the Brexiters could get what they wanted when the UK leaves. So they were clearly aware of the possibility that leaving would cause problems, but they made the judgement call that it was low risk. They got what they wanted, the UK leaving the EU. They just inaccurately predicted the consequences of it.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Dominus Atheos » 2017-12-10 04:52am

Vendetta wrote:
2017-12-09 04:16pm
Zaune wrote:
2017-12-09 02:08pm
Besides, you don't think it's going to be the Leave voters who have to suffer when the big day finally comes, do you?
Overwhelmingly so, yes. The people who actually voted Leave are the people who are going to get the shit kicked out of them the hardest by the consequences of Brexit. The people they thought they were sticking it to ("The Establishment") are going to make out like bandits thanks to disaster capitalism.

Given the massive age gap on leave vs remain, a non-trivial portion of leave voters are probably going to be dead before brexit is really felt.

(I wonder what the turnover point is, the date on which remain voters will hit 50.1% because enough of the leave voters have died of old age. Is it going to be before brexit actually happens? No seriously, I actually want to know)

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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by madd0ct0r » 2017-12-10 07:05am

Dominus Atheos wrote:
2017-12-10 04:52am
Vendetta wrote:
2017-12-09 04:16pm
Zaune wrote:
2017-12-09 02:08pm
Besides, you don't think it's going to be the Leave voters who have to suffer when the big day finally comes, do you?
Overwhelmingly so, yes. The people who actually voted Leave are the people who are going to get the shit kicked out of them the hardest by the consequences of Brexit. The people they thought they were sticking it to ("The Establishment") are going to make out like bandits thanks to disaster capitalism.

Given the massive age gap on leave vs remain, a non-trivial portion of leave voters are probably going to be dead before brexit is really felt.

(I wonder what the turnover point is, the date on which remain voters will hit 50.1% because enough of the leave voters have died of old age. Is it going to be before brexit actually happens? No seriously, I actually want to know)
One estimate I've seen put it at two months after the vote. This one I think: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/2 ... -has-been/
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Hillary » 2017-12-10 07:34am

Bedlam wrote:
2017-12-09 10:42am

I voted for staying in the EU but I have to say I'm not really happy with this. You can talk about protest votes and not being given the truth of what they were voting for but the majority of the population who chose to vote voted to leave. Now being in a situation where as you said they don't get what they voted for an are considered irrelevant seems wrong, thanks for voting, your opinion is wrong and doesn't matter...

Would you feel quite so happy if things were the other way around, if the majority had voted to stay but the government had in some way twisted things around to get the UK kicked out of the EU?
This is fundamentally incorrect. The vote was about membership of the EU, nothing more - not the single market, free movement, the ECJ or anything else. We are still, under these plans, leaving the EU. They get EXACTLY what they voted for.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Steel » 2017-12-10 10:40am

Bedlam wrote:
2017-12-09 10:42am
Steel wrote:
2017-12-09 09:46am
For the moment I'm basking in the warm glow of the fact that it looks like Brexit voters are on track to get none of what they wanted and keep everything they didn't, all while they are made politically irrelevant. I'm sure there will be a spectacularly shitty follow up in a couple of days that reduces everything to a total shitshow, but right this minute the schadenfreude looks good.
I voted for staying in the EU but I have to say I'm not really happy with this. You can talk about protest votes and not being given the truth of what they were voting for but the majority of the population who chose to vote voted to leave. Now being in a situation where as you said they don't get what they voted for an are considered irrelevant seems wrong, thanks for voting, your opinion is wrong and doesn't matter...

Would you feel quite so happy if things were the other way around, if the majority had voted to stay but the government had in some way twisted things around to get the UK kicked out of the EU?
All the vote said was that we leave the EU, in a dubious run advisory referendum. In that sense the vote has been more than respected by this deal.

If our rabid brexiteer negotiation team has determined the best possible route while leaving is for things to remain the same, then I regard that as a tacit, almost overt, admission they knew the whole thing was a shit idea in the first place.
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by mr friendly guy » 2017-12-17 09:09am

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 6.html?amp
Brexit: Britons now back Remain over Leave by 10 points, exclusive poll shows

Exclusive: The newly published survey gives Remainers their biggest lead since the 2016 referendum
Joe Watts Political Editor Sunday 17 December 2017


The British public has swung behind staying in the EU by its largest margin since the referendum, with those backing Remain outstripping Leavers by ten points, a new poll has revealed.

The exclusive survey for The Independent by BMG Research showed 51 per cent now back remaining in the union, while 41 per cent want Brexit.

Once “don’t knows” were encouraged to choose one way or the other, or excluded, the Remain lead rises to 11 points. Either way, it is the biggest gap since the June 2016 vote.

READ MORE
HAMMOND RISKS EUROSCEPTIC ANGER BACKING 'STATUS QUO' BREXIT TRANSITION
It comes as leading political figures write in The Independent tomorrow about whether the country needs a further referendum to decide on Brexit, once terms of departure are known.

Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson, Gina Miller and Vince Cable call for a rethink, while Leave campaign mastermind Matthew Elliott and Conservatives James Cleverly and Suella Fernandes demand Brexit is seen through.

Last week again underlined the difficulties of withdrawal, after the EU set out terms for a Brexit transition period that will likely be unacceptable to leading Conservative Eurosceptics.

Theresa May also suffered a damaging defeat in the Commons while trying to pass her key piece of Brexit legislation, before being forced to make a major concession to avoid further embarrassment next week.

Amid the furore, the latest poll indicates British voters have slowly but steadily been turning their backs on Brexit.

BREXIT: THE DECIDERS


European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier speaks to the media as he arrives at the Council of the European Union ahead of an EU Council meeting on April 29, 2017 in Brussels, Belgium. The 27 members of the European Union will meet in Brussels for a special European Council meeting to discuss the continuing Brexit negotiation Getty

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May stands on the flight deck and speaks to crew members of the 65,000-tonne British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth after it arrived at Portsmouth Naval base, its new home port on August 16, 2017 in Portsmouth, England. The HMS Queen Elizabeth is the lead ship in the new Queen Elizabeth class of supercarriers. Weighing in at 65,000 tonnes she is the largest war ship deployed by the British Royal Navy. She is planned to be in service by 2020 and with a second ship, HMS Prince of Wales, to follow Getty Images
When a weighted sample of some 1,400 people were asked: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?” – 51 per cent backed Remain, and 41 per cent backed Leave.

7 per cent said “don’t know” and 1 per cent refused to answer.

After “don’t knows” were either pushed for an answer or otherwise excluded, 55.5 per cent backed Remain and 44.5 backed Leave.

Polling since this time last year appears to demonstrate a clear trend; Leave enjoyed a lead last December which gradually shrank, before turning into a lead for Remain in the month of the general election, that has since grown.

BMG Research head of polling, Dr Michael Turner, said: “The last time Leave polled ahead of Remain was in February 2017, and since then there has been a slow shift in top-line public opinion in favour of remaining in the EU.

“However, readers should note that digging deeper into the data reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 referendum, with around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters still unchanged in their view.

“Our polling suggests that about a year ago, those who did not vote in the referendum were broadly split, but today’s poll shows that they are now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, by a margin of more than four to one.”

If we are to have control as a nation then we must insist on the democratic right to change our minds
Lord Mandelson
In a special edition of The Independent on Sunday, leading figures in British politics confront the question as to whether it is time to consider a second referendum.

Among the voices is Labour peer Lord Mandelson who says Brexit is not “some natural phenomenon we are consigned to live with”, before adding: “If we are to have control as a nation then we must insist on the democratic right to change our minds.”

Liberal Democrat Leader Mr Cable predicts the Government may need a referendum to help it avoid the political damage of a bad Brexit, while Ms Miller tells how another public vote may be a legal necessity.

Amid ongoing Tory divisions on Europe, ex-cabinet minister Lord Heseltine backs the integrity of MPs trying to reshape Ms May’s plans, while claiming hard-Brexiteers had “betrayed the achievements of Conservative governments from the 1950s onwards”.

But Matthew Elliott hits back at people promoting a further referendum, saying: “Whatever their high-sounding motives, this is nothing more than a shoddy plot to reverse Brexit.”

Reversing Brexit now would be deeply divisive, fundamentally undemocratic and destroy the trust of the British people
Suella Fernandes MP
Rising star Tory MP Ms Fernandes says any attempt to go back on withdrawal would be “deeply divisive, fundamentally undemocratic and destroy the trust of the British people”, while Mr Cleverly argues that “the best chance for a good outcome would be for us all to accept the outcome of the referendum”.

It shows that 18 months on, the fault lines over Brexit run just as deep now as they did in the shocked moments following the 2016 result.

Ms May won a temporary reprieve from conflict with soft-Brexit supporting backbenchers this week, after agreeing to back down over her plan to rigidly enshrine the date of withdrawal in law.

But on Saturday, Chancellor Philip Hammond said that the kind of transition period the UK would seek after Brexit would maintain the status quo. This suggests where the next internal battle will lie, given that the stance is likely to be unacceptable to many hard Brexiteers.

The new European Council guidelines to negotiators show that during a transition period, the EU wants the UK to implement all new rules created by the European Commission, without any say in drawing them up.

The guidelines also require the UK to stay in the customs union and single market, maintain free movement and remain under the jurisdiction of the European Court.

Meanwhile, there will be no full trade talks between the two sides until next March and the UK will not be able to sign other trade deals until after the transition period has ended, no earlier than 2021.

SOURCE NOTE: BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,509 adults living in Great Britain between 5 and 8 December. Data are weighted. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.
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EnterpriseSovereign
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by EnterpriseSovereign » 2017-12-21 02:45pm

And now Green has gone.

May really has no allies left.
It's no use debating a moron; they drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.

Just because you have the attention span of a fruit fly doesn't mean the rest of us are so encumbered.

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bilateralrope
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by bilateralrope » 2017-12-21 11:42pm

Can Brexit be stopped at this point ?

Or does the EU have the capability and motivation to force it to continue ?

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Thanas
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Re: Brexit and General UK politics thread

Post by Thanas » 2017-12-21 11:52pm

The UK can stop Brexit anytime they wish.
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A decision must be made in the life of every nation at the very moment when the grasp of the enemy is at its throat. Then, it seems that the only way to survive is to use the means of the enemy, to rest survival upon what is expedient, to look the other way. Well, the answer to that is 'survival as what'? A country isn't a rock. It's not an extension of one's self. It's what it stands for. It's what it stands for when standing for something is the most difficult! - Chief Judge Haywood
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