Syriza wins Greece election

[mr friendly guy]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30975437

Greece election: Anti-austerity Syriza wins election

Anti-austerity Syriza party has won Greece's general election, putting the country on a possible collision course with the EU over its massive bailout.

With nearly 75% of the votes counted, Syriza is projected to win 149 seats, just two short of an absolute majority, though that number could change.

Left-wing party leader Alexis Tsipras, who wants to renegotiate Greece's debt, said "the Greeks wrote history".

The governing centre-right New Democracy has come a distant second.

Outgoing Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has admitted defeat and phoned Mr Tsipras to congratulate him.

Syriza's result will send shockwaves through Europe, the BBC's Gavin Hewitt in Athens reports.

A majority of voters in Greece have essentially rejected a core policy for dealing with the eurozone crisis as devised by Brussels and Berlin, our correspondent adds.

In Germany, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said he hoped "the new Greek government will not make promises it cannot keep and the country cannot afford".

The election result is expected to be one of the main issues during Monday's meeting of 19 eurozone finance ministers.

Belgium's representative Johan Van Overtveld was quoted by VRT network as saying that Greece "must respect the rules of monetary union", although he added that there was room for some - but not much - flexibility.

British Prime Minister David Cameron - whose country is not a member of the eurozone - said the result of the Greek election would "increase economic uncertainty across Europe".

Meanwhile, the euro fell to $1.1098 against the dollar - the lowest level in more than 11 years.

'Thing of the past'
Addressing his jubilant supporters in front of Athens' university, Mr Tsipras said Greek voters gave Syriza "a clear, powerful mandate".

You are an example of history which is changing... Your mandate is undoubtedly cancelling the bailouts of austerity and destruction.

"The troika for Greece is the thing of the past," he added, referring to the country's biggest international lenders - the European Union, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Central Bank (ECB).

He also promised to negotiate a fair and mutually beneficial financial solution.

Mr Tsipras earlier vowed to reverse many of the austerity measures adopted by Greece since a series of bailouts began in 2010.

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At the scene: BBC's Chris Morris in Athens
On Klathmonos Square, the flags were flying high, supporters of Syriza were singing and dancing, there were hugs and tears and broad beaming smiles.

This was an extraordinary victory for the radical left in Greece - probably beyond its own expectations.

Alexis Tsipras will now try to lead an anti-austerity revolution, backed by a strong democratic mandate.

He said in his victory speech that he is willing to negotiate with Greece's European partners. The question is: how much are they prepared to compromise with him?

Syriza victory: A turning point?

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For his part, Mr Samaras said earlier: "The Greek people have spoken and I respect their decision," pointing out that he had inherited a "hot potato" on coming into office and that he and his party had done much to restore his country's finances.

The result is being closely watched outside Greece, where it is believed a Syriza victory could encourage radical leftist parties across Europe.

"There is an ongoing thriller surrounding the absolute majority," said Michalis Karyotoglou, head of Singular Logic, the software group monitoring the voting process for the interior ministry.

Either way however, partial results from Greece's election commission showed a clear Syriza lead.

With most votes counted, Syriza is polling 36%, while New Democracy is on 28%.

Another five parties - including the far-right Golden Dawn and centrist The River - are expected to be represented in the 300-member parliament.

The proportion of votes won by smaller parties will have a large impact on whether Syriza can gain the required 151 parliamentary seats to govern with an absolute majority.

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Who are Syriza and what do they stand for?

An acronym meaning the "Radical Coalition of the Left", Syriza was formed in 2004 as an umbrella group
Led by 40-year-old Alexis Tsipras
The party first came to prominence following the 2008 Greek riots
It promises an end to Greece's painful austerity measures and wants to renegotiate its debt
Markets worry about a Greek debt default and a possible exit from the eurozone, though Syriza says it wants to keep the euro

Ok, so maybe a Greek exit will happen. I don't know why their would be big ramifications to the rest of the EU if Greece leaves the Eurozone. They will still be in the EU won't they? Their economy is what, 2% of the whole of the EU. If they leave, their debts are still in Euros, and they stuff their own economy up, but shouldn't the rest of the EU be relatively unscathed? Yes I know it obviously has bad effects on the rest of the EU, I am just struggling to see why it should given the relative size of their economy.

[Thanas]

Here is why Greece has no power at all:

First, the entire cash flow of Greek banks is depending on the European central bank.
Second, greece has a debt of 320 billion Euro. Of that debt only 20% is owned to private creditors.
Of the remaining 80%, it is owed to:
- 25 bns to the ECB, which per law is forbidden to forgive debts
- 32 bns to the IMF, which has ruled out any kind of debt forgiveness
- 190 bns to other EU countries. This debt is guaranteed for 32 years. Of that debt, Greece only has to start paying in 2020. And Greece does not have to pay interest on most of that debt until in a few years.

So Greece has no power and even more important there are no further avenues to immediately provide relief. The only way that is possible is to push the repayment date to a later one, but that does not provide much immediate help.

So I don't see any avenues for Greece to get a lot of debt forgiveness. Not unless they somehow manage to convince the remainder of Europe to just go along with it. This would be a very hard cell to the voters of countries like Germany or those of France, Spain and Italy, who are currently undergoing hard reforms.

[Thanas]

I should also add that I wholeheartedly approve of the Syrizan victory because the current Government did very little for reform and did not touch the big wigs of the country. Hopefully this new Government will do so.

[wautd]

What Greece needs is some kind of investment program to get their economy running again. The brutal savings during the last couple of years mostly destroyed what little economy they, and without an economy there's no way they'll be able topay back their loans anyway.

[The Romulan Republic]

Here is why Greece has no power at all:

First, the entire cash flow of Greek banks is depending on the European central bank.
Second, greece has a debt of 320 billion Euro. Of that debt only 20% is owned to private creditors.
Of the remaining 80%, it is owed to:
- 25 bns to the ECB, which per law is forbidden to forgive debts
- 32 bns to the IMF, which has ruled out any kind of debt forgiveness
- 190 bns to other EU countries. This debt is guaranteed for 32 years. Of that debt, Greece only has to start paying in 2020. And Greece does not have to pay interest on most of that debt until in a few years.

So Greece has no power and even more important there are no further avenues to immediately provide relief. The only way that is possible is to push the repayment date to a later one, but that does not provide much immediate help.

So I don't see any avenues for Greece to get a lot of debt forgiveness. Not unless they somehow manage to convince the remainder of Europe to just go along with it. This would be a very hard cell to the voters of countries like Germany or those of France, Spain and Italy, who are currently undergoing hard reforms.

What worries me about this is that the Greek people clearly chose change and if the party they chose can't deliver, who will they support next? As I recall, third place in this election went to Golden Dawn. That alone makes me inclined to hope that Syriza achieves as much of what the voters want as possible.

Edit: I admit, however, that I am not very knowledgeable about Greek politics, so I may be way off.

[Tribble]

Anyone with a working brain could have predicted that this was going to happen. Hell even Nigel Farage, idiot that he is, warned for years about the rise of far-left and far-right parties if Greece remained in the euro. I really hope that both sides have the common sense to negotiate debt relief and a Greek exit from the euro. If nothing changes and Syriza doesn't accomplish anything then there is a real risk that parties like Golden Dawn will be the next option that the Greeks will vote for.

[Thanas]

Golden Dawn failed to capitalize, their numbers have remained stable over the last elections. This suggests that the percentage of idiots in Greece remains unchanged.

EDIT: A Grexit is not an option and would not do anything because the cashflow in Greece is utterly dependent on the Euro. No Euro, no money for Greek banks. And printing the drachma is not an option.

[Zaune]

Well, as someone suggested in the comments when Charlie Stross weighed in, Greek banks could always start printing Euros instead.

Seriously, though, I'm in favour of any government that's talking about a more creative approach than "do the same thing but harder this time".

[Thanas]

Well, as someone suggested in the comments when Charlie Stross weighed in, Greek banks could always start printing Euros instead.

And a second later the Greek economy tanks past the point of no return.

[Tribble]

IMO at some point the Greeks would rather risk seeing their economy tank that being told over and over by Brussels what is verboten and what is not. Golden Dawn's numbers stabilised because it appeared to Greek voters that Syriza might be able to renegotiate with the EU. If negotiations don't change anything and Syriza becomes little more than another EU mouthpiece, who are Greek voters going to turn to next? I'm willing to bet a lot of voters will swing over to Golden Dawn as the option of last resort.

[Thanas]

IMO at some point the Greeks would rather risk seeing their economy tank that being told over and over by Brussels what is verboten and what is not.

Yeah, no. You can't imagine what will happen to Greece if Europe decides to seriously screw them over.

[DaveJB]

IMO at some point the Greeks would rather risk seeing their economy tank that being told over and over by Brussels what is verboten and what is not. Golden Dawn's numbers stabilised because it appeared to Greek voters that Syriza might be able to renegotiate with the EU. If negotiations don't change anything and Syriza becomes little more than another EU mouthpiece, who are Greek voters going to turn to next? I'm willing to bet a lot of voters will swing over to Golden Dawn as the option of last resort.

From what I understand, I don't think there are enough extremists in Greece for Golden Dawn to feasibly ever end up as the largest party, much less form a majority government. A more realistic danger is if at the next round of elections all the parties fall well short of a majority, and the various right-wing parties end up having to resort to inviting Golden Dawn to join a coalition government.

[Crown]

IMO at some point the Greeks would rather risk seeing their economy tank that being told over and over by Brussels what is verboten and what is not.

Yeah, no. You can't imagine what will happen to Greece if Europe decides to seriously screw them over.

Invade them, steal their gold and kill off 10% of their population by starvation? Been done.

I should also add that I wholeheartedly approve of the Syrizan victory because the current Government did very little for reform and did not touch the big wigs of the country. Hopefully this new Government will do so.

The only thing I think you and I will agree on in this thread.

[Thanas]

Invade them, steal their gold and kill off 10% of their population by starvation? Been done.

Ooh, a Nazi reference. How classy.

Why invade them? Just pull the plug and watch the whole corrupt nation fall into a spiral of depression. For extra fun time, just slap a few tariffs on them.

[Crown]

Invade them, steal their gold and kill off 10% of their population by starvation? Been done.

Ooh, a Nazi reference. How classy.

Why invade them? Just pull the plug and watch the whole corrupt nation fall into a spiral of depression. For extra fun time, just slap a few tariffs on them.

Just like West Germany in 1953?

[K. A. Pital]

Just pull the plug and watch the whole corrupt nation fall into a spiral of depression.

I have a better idea: let's pull the plug on the fucking EU and watch the corrupt oligarchic suprastate fall into a spiral of depression and suffering. Let's have the USA, Russia, France & Germany and all other major powers who dick around with smaller nations collapse and suffer endlessly.

[The Romulan Republic]

Wouldn't it be nice if millions of people suffered from violence and poverty for being born in nations you don't like? Wanker.

[J]

D is for default. I expect Greece to use threats of a default (which would explode many of the bond holders and set off a chain reaction in credit default swaps) to extract concessions from the EU, then selectively default if their demands aren't met. The rules are not what you think they are, it's now a game of chicken, we'll now see if the EU or Greece blinks first.

[DaveJB]

I have a better idea: let's pull the plug on the fucking EU and watch the corrupt oligarchic suprastate fall into a spiral of depression and suffering. Let's have the USA, Russia, France & Germany and all other major powers who dick around with smaller nations collapse and suffer endlessly.

No, no, no, don't you know anything? Once the EU is dismantled, Nigel Farage and Marine le Pen will lead Europe into embracing right-wing Christian Conservatism, and it'll become the most prosperous region on Earth once again! Some guy in my local pub told me that in-between episodes of foaming at the mouth, so it must be true, right?

More seriously, it looks like the result of this election may be finally causing Cameron to realize that the people aren't quite buying into his pleas of "Oh well, none of this is my fault, it's all on the guys who were in power before me."

[Crown]

Wouldn't it be nice if millions of people suffered from violence and poverty for being born in nations you don't like? Wanker.

Kinda unclear as to who you're responding to here since Thanas appeared to be perfectly fine if such a fate befell the Greeks - the metaphorical David - and Stas Bush would rather it happen to the metaphorical Goliath.

Personally I think it would be more constructive if we all just spoke about truths; i.e. Greece is completely and utterly bankrupt. It either needs to default on its loans (triggering the Grexit doomsday scenario) or the powers that be need to face reality that austerity has resulted in a 25% reduction in the Greek economy in 4 years, an unemployment rate of 25% (50% for those in their 20s), mass emigration, an increase in homelessness, an increase people no longer being food secure, an increase in suicide rates and homes being disconnected from the electrical grid. All of which adds up to austerity not working and any hope of Greece paying back it's loans can only be achieved by some major re-structuring of its debt repayment options or outright debt right off.

[Metahive]

Isn't it super-cool that Crown was so hysterically offended when I insinuated that he was repeating racist talking points and now here he comes and makes gratuitous Nazi-jokes about Germany to a german member of the board? Wait, no, that's not cool, that's fucking bullshit!

Why is that shit tolerated here again?

[Crown]

Isn't it super-cool that Crown was so hysterically offended when I insinuated that he was repeating racist talking points and now here he comes and makes gratuitous Nazi-jokes about Germany to a german member of the board? Wait, no, that's not cool, that's fucking bullshit!

Why is that shit tolerated here again?

We have a vendetta rule on this board. You've just violated it.

[The Romulan Republic]

Wouldn't it be nice if millions of people suffered from violence and poverty for being born in nations you don't like? Wanker.

Kinda unclear as to who you're responding to here since Thanas appeared to be perfectly fine if such a fate befell the Greeks - the metaphorical David - and Stas Bush would rather it happen to the metaphorical Goliath.

Personally I think it would be more constructive if we all just spoke about truths; i.e. Greece is completely and utterly bankrupt. It either needs to default on its loans (triggering the Grexit doomsday scenario) or the powers that be need to face reality that austerity has resulted in a 25% reduction in the Greek economy in 4 years, an unemployment rate of 25% (50% for those in their 20s), mass emigration, an increase in homelessness, an increase people no longer being food secure, an increase in suicide rates and homes being disconnected from the electrical grid. All of which adds up to austerity not working and any hope of Greece paying back it's loans can only be achieved by some major re-structuring of its debt repayment options or outright debt right off.

I was speaking to Stas Bush, and I find your defence of wishing horrors on the people of America/etc. because they happen to be from powerful countries despicable. Such things happening to Greece isn't okay either, but between the ruin of a single small nation and the ruin of several large nations, I know which is the greater evil in purely numerical terms.

[Crown]

Wouldn't it be nice if millions of people suffered from violence and poverty for being born in nations you don't like? Wanker.

Kinda unclear as to who you're responding to here since Thanas appeared to be perfectly fine if such a fate befell the Greeks - the metaphorical David - and Stas Bush would rather it happen to the metaphorical Goliath.

Personally I think it would be more constructive if we all just spoke about truths; i.e. Greece is completely and utterly bankrupt. It either needs to default on its loans (triggering the Grexit doomsday scenario) or the powers that be need to face reality that austerity has resulted in a 25% reduction in the Greek economy in 4 years, an unemployment rate of 25% (50% for those in their 20s), mass emigration, an increase in homelessness, an increase people no longer being food secure, an increase in suicide rates and homes being disconnected from the electrical grid. All of which adds up to austerity not working and any hope of Greece paying back it's loans can only be achieved by some major re-structuring of its debt repayment options or outright debt right off.

I was speaking to Stas Bush, and I find your defence of wishing horrors on the people of America/etc. because they happen to be from powerful countries despicable. Such things happening to Greece isn't okay either, but between the ruin of a single small nation and the ruin of several large nations, I know which is the greater evil in purely numerical terms.

Where have I advocated a defence of 'wishing horrors on the people of America/etc. because they happen to be from powerful countries'? This should be easy for you to prove.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, you seemed to be showing sympathy for Stas Bush's position by implying that wishing such things on America and such is good, or at least less bad, because they're "...the metaphorical Goliath." rather than "...the metaphorical David..." and implying that I should be attacking Thanas instead of Stas Bush, or at least that's how I took it. Apologies if I was mistaken.