Meanwhile, in Syria

[LaCroix]

Turkey is also claiming the jet aircraft was "warned" 10 times prior to being fire upon.

Then they are lying. There is no way they could do that in the time the jet was actually in their territory, according to their own flight data.

[Elheru Aran]

Unless they were yelling really fast and calling the lock-on signals 'warnings'... yeah.

[NecronLord]

I'll just point out that during the Cold War the USSR did in fact shoot down a US plane or two... and no war ensued from it (probably because they were US spyplanes violating USSR airspace). I don't except this will mutate into something worse, either. I could be wrong, of course, but probably not.

I too doubt much will come of it except sanctions (and Russian tourists are an important source of revenue in Turkey) and Russia stepping up airstrikes on the Turkish-sponsored groups in Syria. Hopefully it'll just be a brief incident.

It strikes me as more a dangerous incident than spyplanes getting shot down though. The Gary Powers incident is a bit different I'd think; he was on a mission against the USSR and the USSR handled him through its legal system (setting aside whether that was a fair system, they were recognized as a state by everyone) in vaguely the right way (he actually was spying, and was convicted of it then traded back) I don't know much about other incidents, but obviously he wasn't shot out of hand on landing and of course, everyone expects spies to potentially get caught.

Certainly I don't imagine the Russian public would be too enraged about a spyplane pilot getting shot down and prosecuted for spying, while obviously their military pilots getting shot down and then executed is a different kettle of fish, rightly, in my mind.

Except there are no tensions between Russiaand Turkey.

Turkey and Russia have been longstanding strategic rivals since the days of the Ottoman Empire and the Crimean War, and their nationalists oppose each other.

There's not a Cold War, not yet at least, but to say there's no tensions seems odd.

[Channel72]

Turkey is being a blustering idiot, and shooting down that jet was completely irresponsible, especially given the small protrusion of Turkish land that the Russian jet entered, and this incident had zero purpose except to bolster Erdogan's ego. He obviously can't get in to some actual war with Russia, and frankly I really resent that he would risk dragging NATO into this nonsense.

[Channel72]

Video from the ground clearly shows fucks on the ground shooting at the ejected pilots. That's a blatant war crime caught on camera... Don't image Moscow taking that lightly.

Ha! War crime... yeah. As if any of the factions in Syria even knows what that means. Many of these groups commit 10 war crimes every day between breakfast and lunch.

[Patroklos]

A nuke? If that's the level of logic involved then Turkey has already forfeited any claim to reason.

I am not arguing it is unjustified in the legal sense. You can shoot down whatever is unauthorized in your airspace. I don't think it is justified from a moral, common sense or real politic standpoint.

Also this was no accident. It was a purposeful act by Turkey. It might have been by Russia too but it's also not unreasonable that it was an accident when so many targets hug the Turkish border. Perhaps such targets are too risky to hit with the Turks being overt dicks, but then that create a defacto safe zone for ISIS and other. Perhaps if we find it happened 50kms inside Turkey it will seem more purposeful on Russia's part. 1 mile? -1 mile? Not so much. The fact that the wreckage and then survivors were clearly in Syria signals the violation wasn't particularly blatant.

[Thanas]

Already posted and discussed in other thread. Merged.

[Grumman]

Also this was no accident. It was a purposeful act by Turkey. It might have been by Russia too but it's also not unreasonable that it was an accident when so many targets hug the Turkish border. Perhaps such targets are too risky to hit with the Turks being overt dicks, but then that create a defacto safe zone for ISIS and other. Perhaps if we find it happened 50kms inside Turkey it will seem more purposeful on Russia's part. 1 mile? -1 mile? Not so much. The fact that the wreckage and then survivors were clearly in Syria signals the violation wasn't particularly blatant.

ISIL's thirty miles away. Assuming those radar tracks show the aircraft maneuvering before and after performing airstrikes, the targets would almost certainly be non-ISIL rebels.

[LaCroix]

I hope the diplomatic repercussions include Russia backing the creation of Kurdistan. That would be the worst they could do to Turkey.

[Col. Crackpot]

Video from the ground clearly shows fucks on the ground shooting at the ejected pilots. That's a blatant war crime caught on camera... Don't image Moscow taking that lightly.

Ha! War crime... yeah. As if any of the factions in Syria even knows what that means. Many of these groups commit 10 war crimes every day between breakfast and lunch.

Sadly true

[The Romulan Republic]

I hope the diplomatic repercussions include Russia backing the creation of Kurdistan. That would be the worst they could do to Turkey.

Wouldn't that potentially involve their pets in the Syrian regime having to give up a certain amount of territory?

[NecronLord]

ISIL's thirty miles away. Assuming those radar tracks show the aircraft maneuvering before and after performing airstrikes, the targets would almost certainly be non-ISIL rebels.

I don't see the significance of that really? Russia's fighting nebulously defined 'terrorists' IE the opponents of Russia's strategic ally, Bashar al-Assad. Is that even a secret?

[LaCroix]

I hope the diplomatic repercussions include Russia backing the creation of Kurdistan. That would be the worst they could do to Turkey.

Wouldn't that potentially involve their pets in the Syrian regime having to give up a certain amount of territory?

Russia has already agreed that Assad is on his way out, after a transitional period. Taking that extra step would not be unthinkable, especially since that split would help creating a permanently stable Syria, and could even provide them with another source of non-russian ground troops against DAESH.

Knowing it would piss off Turkey like nothing else would be the cherry on top.

Still improbable, but one can dream.

[Grumman]

ISIL's thirty miles away. Assuming those radar tracks show the aircraft maneuvering before and after performing airstrikes, the targets would almost certainly be non-ISIL rebels.

I don't see the significance of that really? Russia's fighting nebulously defined 'terrorists' IE the opponents of Russia's strategic ally, Bashar al-Assad. Is that even a secret?

It's significant because if Russia can't bomb these particular rebels because they're too close to Turkish airspace, why should Turkey give a damn?

[Zaune]

I hope the diplomatic repercussions include Russia backing the creation of Kurdistan. That would be the worst they could do to Turkey.

That would be pretty much guaranteed to lead to war with NATO if they went beyond a bit of low-key lobbying in the UN and a promise to recognise the Kurds if they did break off.

[Patroklos]

ISIL's thirty miles away. Assuming those radar tracks show the aircraft maneuvering before and after performing airstrikes, the targets would almost certainly be non-ISIL rebels.

Can you share with us this map of current ISIL positions you have handy?

Not that it matters, 30kms is nothing when it comes to normal civilian maneuvering aircraft let alone ones looking for optimal cover/approach for airstrikes. A CVN marshalling stack and orbits alone goes out that far. I believe the lateral separation for civilian airliners for the FAA is three miles (5km), a normal airport will maintain several orbits with separation like that (as well as vertical).

The point being 30kms if that is even true is nothing when it comes to airspace. An Su-24's max speed is 1315 km/h. Even if it was only doing half that its something like three minute of travel.

[Grumman]

Can you share with us this map of current ISIL positions you have handy?

Here's one from the 18th.

Not that it matters, 30kms is nothing when it comes to normal civilian maneuvering aircraft let alone ones looking for optimal cover/approach for airstrikes.

Not 30km, 30 miles. That part of Syria is the most distant part of Syria from the parts occupied by ISIL.

[Korto]

I'm pretty much siding with Turkey on this, assuming Turkey's accounting of events are more or less correct as were recounted in the Guardian. Russia had trespassed multiple times before and had been diplomatically warned, this plane had been warned multiple times while approaching the Turkish border--

Turkey is also claiming the jet aircraft was "warned" 10 times prior to being fire upon.

Then they are lying. There is no way they could do that in the time the jet was actually in their territory, according to their own flight data.

Apparently the warnings started while the plane was still approaching Turkish airspace--
those warnings were completely ignored, diplomacy had already failed; there comes a time when you've got to either (a) escalate, or (b) spread your legs and bend over. I believe Russia was counting on (b). They got (a).

There's not going to be a war, most particularly if Turkey can back up its version of events, because Turkey is a member of NATO. You could argue "there's a chance", but then you could argue there's a chance of Roko's Basilisk

[ArmorPierce]

A nation has the inherent right to maintain the sovereignty and integrity of its borders. If a nation is unable to maintain sovereignty of its borders, it has de facto ceded it.

An unresponsive heavily armed air craft, or even an unarmed air craft, is a major threat. Why would there be different treatment from a group of heavily armed men entering the borders where the other side is a war torn nation? Is it far fetched to believe that Turkey does not want war planes flying over its borders?

Russia has repeatedly violated Turkish air space and has been warned that they will indeed engage if it continues.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-inva ... -official/

Turkey had stated that they provided ample warning to the the incoming air craft that they will engage prior to engaging. They have released all their records so we will find out soon enough if this is in fact true or not.

Neutral countries have a long history of firing on violations of it air space. Were they wrong too?

Nazi Germany repeatedly violated Swiss airspace. During the Invasion of France, German aircraft violated Swiss airspace at least 197 times.[9] In several air incidents, the Swiss shot down 11 Luftwaffe planes between 10 May 1940 and 17 June 1940.[9]

From 1943 Switzerland dropped American and British aircraft, mainly bombers, overflying Switzerland during World War II: six by Swiss air force fighters and nine by flab cannons, and 36 airmen were killed. On 1 October 1943 the first American bomber was shot near Bad Ragaz: Only three men survived. The officers were interned in Davos, airmen in Adelboden.

[ArmorPierce]

It appears that the United States military is confirming Turkish account of issuing repeated warnings.

A U.S. military spokesman confirmed that Turkish pilots issued repeated warnings to the Russian plane and didn't get a response. However, the spokesman said it was not immediately clear on which side of the border the Russian jet was flying.

http://www.voanews.com/content/turkish- ... 71322.html

released flight radar appears to confirm Turkish account of border violation
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/24/middleeas ... ey-border/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUkdnCuW4AAxX9L.png:large

[Exonerate]

Out of curiosity, what's the legality of shooting down aircraft that violated your national airspace but has already left it?

[Edi]

Out of curiosity, what's the legality of shooting down aircraft that violated your national airspace but has already left it?

Probably ambiguous.

[Borgholio]

Out of curiosity, what's the legality of shooting down aircraft that violated your national airspace but has already left it?

Depends on the circumstances. If it's a simple navigational error as in, "Oops, the navigation was off and we drifted across the border...we left as soon as we realized the error." then shooting them could be interpreted as an act of war.

On the other hand, if it was a spy plane that had crossed over to take some pictures, then turned around and ran...or a plane that actually launched some kind of attack, then it would probably be justifiable.

[Thanas]

A nation has the inherent right to maintain the sovereignty and integrity of its borders. If a nation is unable to maintain sovereignty of its borders, it has de facto ceded it.

An unresponsive heavily armed air craft, or even an unarmed air craft, is a major threat. Why would there be different treatment from a group of heavily armed men entering the borders where the other side is a war torn nation? Is it far fetched to believe that Turkey does not want war planes flying over its borders?

There is a huge fucking difference between having a right and using it in a responsible manner. Adults know that. Turkey does not. If Germany had shot down every plane that intruded on their airspace during the cold war there would have been a lot more casualties. If East Germany had done the same, it would have had the same result.

I am not somebody who is particularly sympathetic to Putin or Russia. But this is complete irresponsible bullshit on the part of Turkey.

EDIT: And it is just the latest link in that huge shit Turkey has taken on its allies and neighbours.

[Borgholio]

Russia is deploying anti-aircraft missile systems to the Turkish border.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/25/middl ... d=19044772