UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Batman]

Putin may also be delusional enough to think people will Not immediately conclude this was his doing.

[LadyTevar]

Putin may also be delusional enough to think people will Not immediately conclude this was his doing.

All he'd have to do is claim he never gave the order and someone from Belarus did the actual shooting. (Never mind how/why a Belarus would have the codes to fire it).

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Assuming a Western response is limited to cruise missiles launched from Poland, any other outcome would end badly for Russia. Meanwhile...

Huge explosions rip through Russian-occupied town as Ukraine wipes out ammunition depot

Russia was dealt a devastating blow this morning after a Ukrainian ambush strike wiped out an entire ammunition depot. The strike destroyed a "very significant" ammunition depot in Rykove, near the Russian-occupied port city of Henichesk in the southern region of Kherson. The southern region is the centre of intense fighting amid Ukraine's recently-launched counter-offensive.

Videos shared on social media show the devastating explosions that rocked Rykove this morning.

Clips show vast plumes of fire and smoke rising on the horizon while sounds of further explosions and blasts can be heard in the background.

Footage also shows burning projectiles flying into the sky.

Rykove sits about 20 kilometres (12 miles) from Henichesk, which has been occupied by Kremlin forces since the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year.

Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed that a huge ammunition depot had been hit at Partyzany railway station in Rykove.

He praised his pilots for the decisive strikes.

Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the Odesa military administration, also confirmed the strike.

In a video message, the Ukrainian official said: "Our armed forces dealt a good blow in the morning - and a very loud one - in the village of Rykove, Henichesk district, in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region.

Ukraine's counter-offensive has stepped up its intensity as Kyiv appears to have seized a village on the frontline. Piatykhatky was reportedly abandoned by retreating Russian troops following an intense wave of Ukraine attacks this week. The liberation of Piatykhatky would mark Ukraine's first village gain for nearly a week, as well as an escalation of the offensive on the most direct route to Crimea.

"There was a very significant ammunition depot. It was destroyed."

Social media accounts that monitor the conflict shared the clips of the attack, with @Tendar writing: "Huge explosions are taking place in Russian-occupied areas.

"Russian ammunition warehouses have been hit and based on that footage this one was pretty full. This is in Rykove, Kherson Oblast, near Henichesk."

It was reported that the fire and explosions at the site have been ongoing for "the last three hours".

Meanwhile, the UK Ministry of Defence says heavy fighting is continuing to be focused in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, western Donetsk Oblast, and around Bakhmut.

In its daily intelligence briefing, the MoD stated that both sides are suffering high casualties, with Russian losses likely the highest since the peak of the battle for Bakhmut in March.

Speaking to Sky News this morning, Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko admitted that the counter-offensive was "intense" on everyone in the country.

She said: "Every time that Ukraine gets an upper hand in the war zone, Russia launches missiles and drones on the peaceful cities in Western Ukraine and especially on Kyiv the capital.

"So the whole country is in a very tense situation right now because whether you are fighting and living in the combat zones, or you are living in Kyiv, or you are living in western Ukraine, you are still countering Russia's aggression."

[Solauren]

Putin may also be delusional enough to think people will Not immediately conclude this was his doing.

All he'd have to do is claim he never gave the order and someone from Belarus did the actual shooting. (Never mind how/why a Belarus would have the codes to fire it).

Claim a traitor sold the codes to Belarus/Belarus hacked what they needed to. (It's not like anyone has any faith in Russian tech at that moment). if a traitor, use it as an excuse to execute a few people that you dislike but don't feel comfortable enough to move against otherwise.

[Batman]

Nobody's going to fall for that.

[Solauren]

True.
Doesn't mean he wouldn't consider it worth trying.

[bilateralrope]

Evidence suggests Russia blew Kakhovka dam in Ukraine: NYT

Reuters
June 18, 20239:59 PM GMT+12
Updated 8 hours ago

June 18 (Reuters) - Evidence suggests this month's destruction of the huge Kakhovka dam in a Russian-controlled area of Ukraine resulted from an inside explosion set off by Russia, the New York Times said.

Citing engineers and explosive experts, the newspaper said on Friday that its investigation found evidence suggesting an explosive charge in a passageway running through the dam's concrete base detonated, destroying the structure on June 6.

"The evidence clearly suggests the dam was crippled by an explosion set off by the side that controls it: Russia," the Times said.

Separately, a team of international legal experts assisting Ukraine's prosecutors in their investigation said in preliminary findings on Friday it was "highly likely" the collapse in Ukraine's Kherson region was caused by explosives planted by Russians.

The Kremlin accuses Kyiv of sabotaging the hydroelectric dam, which held a reservoir the size of the U.S. Great Salt Lake, to cut off a key source of water for Crimea and distract attention from a "faltering" counter-offensive against Russian forces.

Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing up the Soviet-era dam, under Russian control since early days of its invasion in 2022, unleashing floodwater across a large swath of the battleground, destroying farmland and cutting off water supplies to civilians.

Reuters could not independently verify the claims about the explosion's cause.

The Times cited engineers as saying only a full examination of the dam after the water drains from it can establish the sequence of events leading to the destruction.

"Erosion from water cascading through the gates could have led to a failure if the dam were poorly designed, or the concrete was substandard, but engineers called that unlikely," the newspaper said.

Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by William Mallard

Looks like it's going to be difficult for Russia to blame Ukraine for blowing the dam.

[Zaune]

Nobody's going to fall for that.

Doesn't matter what anyone believes if they can't prove it. And it's not like anyone vaguely sane is going to go actively looking for a pretext to engage in tit-for-tat nuclear strikes.

[Crazedwraith]

The real dilemma when the nukes go off to you, investigate go full bore and accuse someone and escalate everything to dangerous levels, or do you say nothing and tactical nukes become tacitly allowed and get used more and more?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Evidence suggests Russia blew Kakhovka dam in Ukraine: NYT

Reuters
June 18, 20239:59 PM GMT+12
Updated 8 hours ago

June 18 (Reuters) - Evidence suggests this month's destruction of the huge Kakhovka dam in a Russian-controlled area of Ukraine resulted from an inside explosion set off by Russia, the New York Times said.

Citing engineers and explosive experts, the newspaper said on Friday that its investigation found evidence suggesting an explosive charge in a passageway running through the dam's concrete base detonated, destroying the structure on June 6.

"The evidence clearly suggests the dam was crippled by an explosion set off by the side that controls it: Russia," the Times said.

Separately, a team of international legal experts assisting Ukraine's prosecutors in their investigation said in preliminary findings on Friday it was "highly likely" the collapse in Ukraine's Kherson region was caused by explosives planted by Russians.

The Kremlin accuses Kyiv of sabotaging the hydroelectric dam, which held a reservoir the size of the U.S. Great Salt Lake, to cut off a key source of water for Crimea and distract attention from a "faltering" counter-offensive against Russian forces.

Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing up the Soviet-era dam, under Russian control since early days of its invasion in 2022, unleashing floodwater across a large swath of the battleground, destroying farmland and cutting off water supplies to civilians.

Reuters could not independently verify the claims about the explosion's cause.

The Times cited engineers as saying only a full examination of the dam after the water drains from it can establish the sequence of events leading to the destruction.

"Erosion from water cascading through the gates could have led to a failure if the dam were poorly designed, or the concrete was substandard, but engineers called that unlikely," the newspaper said.

Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by William Mallard

Looks like it's going to be difficult for Russia to blame Ukraine for blowing the dam.

No it won't- Russia has been lying through its teeth since the very start of the war and has been giving its own narrative regardless of how divorced from reality it happens to be.

[Batman]

It's going to be difficult for them to make anybody believe them, though.

[wautd]

It's going to be difficult for them to make anybody believe them, though.

That'll be the job of the Western useful idiots/Kremlin propagandists like Tucker Carlson, Jason Hinkle, George Galloway, the Duran, Jimmy Dore,...

Meanwhile, Russian state media itself is already shifting it's narrative from 'we didn't do it' from 'we didn't do it, but if we did, it would have been a legal military strategy'

[LadyTevar]

The real dilemma when the nukes go off to you, investigate go full bore and accuse someone and escalate everything to dangerous levels, or do you say nothing and tactical nukes become tacitly allowed and get used more and more?

Or do you retaliate and THEN go investigate who did what to set it off?

[Lord Revan]

There is the option that Putin has no intention of using those nukes for a first strike and it's more setting up a negation tactic of "if you allow us to keep the parts we occupied, we'll withdraw the nukes from Belarus".

[LadyTevar]

There is the option that Putin has no intention of using those nukes for a first strike and it's more setting up a negation tactic of "if you allow us to keep the parts we occupied, we'll withdraw the nukes from Belarus".

That's the sensible option, yes.
We can't let him have that option, tho.. because give him another 10 years, as we did when he captured the Crimea, he'll try again, and it might not be Ukraine next time. It might be Estonia, or Latvia.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

There is the option that Putin has no intention of using those nukes for a first strike and it's more setting up a negation tactic of "if you allow us to keep the parts we occupied, we'll withdraw the nukes from Belarus".

That's the sensible option, yes.
We can't let him have that option, tho.. because give him another 10 years, as we did when he captured the Crimea, he'll try again, and it might not be Ukraine next time. It might be Estonia, or Latvia.

Those two countries are NATO members. Putin would have to be insane to try it.

[Gerald Tarrant]

There is the option that Putin has no intention of using those nukes for a first strike and it's more setting up a negation tactic of "if you allow us to keep the parts we occupied, we'll withdraw the nukes from Belarus".

That's the sensible option, yes.
We can't let him have that option, tho.. because give him another 10 years, as we did when he captured the Crimea, he'll try again, and it might not be Ukraine next time. It might be Estonia, or Latvia.

Those two countries are NATO members. Putin would have to be insane to try it.

I think Moldova was the likely next target; if three days to Kyiv hadn't turned into 15 months. They're not in NATO and not in the EU, and they have a separatist region that's supported by Russia (Transnistria). And if the Russian southern front had been able to drive straight West, they'd reach Transnistria and Moldova.

[Lord Revan]

There is the option that Putin has no intention of using those nukes for a first strike and it's more setting up a negation tactic of "if you allow us to keep the parts we occupied, we'll withdraw the nukes from Belarus".

That's the sensible option, yes.
We can't let him have that option, tho.. because give him another 10 years, as we did when he captured the Crimea, he'll try again, and it might not be Ukraine next time. It might be Estonia, or Latvia.

Well obviously we can't, but it doesn't mean they're not gonna try it and it sounds more likely then then "I'm gonna start WW3 because I'm bored" that seems to be pushed as the alternative option.

[Zaune]

Those two countries are NATO members. Putin would have to be insane to try it.

He'd have to be insane not to take one of the "off-ramps" the US has been offering and cut his losses rather than lose the war he's on now, but here we are.

[wautd]

That's the sensible option, yes.
We can't let him have that option, tho.. because give him another 10 years, as we did when he captured the Crimea, he'll try again, and it might not be Ukraine next time. It might be Estonia, or Latvia.

Those two countries are NATO members. Putin would have to be insane to try it.

I think Moldova was the likely next target; if three days to Kyiv hadn't turned into 15 months. They're not in NATO and not in the EU, and they have a separatist region that's supported by Russia (Transnistria). And if the Russian southern front had been able to drive straight West, they'd reach Transnistria and Moldova.

This.
Looking at Putin's track recording during the last decades, being a NATO member is the best insurance polis against Russian military aggression

[LadyTevar]

Those two countries are NATO members. Putin would have to be insane to try it.

He'd have to be insane not to take one of the "off-ramps" the US has been offering and cut his losses rather than lose the war he's on now, but here we are.

I don't think he CAN cut his losses
Look at his rhetoric that got him here -- Russia is fighting Nazis. Russia is saving the Russians living under oppression. Russia is taking back their nation, taking back the parts stolen from it. The WEST is evil and trying to stop us from being Great Again.

If he were to back out, the "Nazis" won. The WEST won. The Russians he was saving remain oppressed, in places that should still be Russia.

Backing out isn't an option, because he'd lose too much.

[Ralin]

I don't think he CAN cut his losses
Look at his rhetoric that got him here -- Russia is fighting Nazis. Russia is saving the Russians living under oppression. Russia is taking back their nation, taking back the parts stolen from it. The WEST is evil and trying to stop us from being Great Again.

If he were to back out, the "Nazis" won. The WEST won. The Russians he was saving remain oppressed, in places that should still be Russia.

Backing out isn't an option, because he'd lose too much.

I think you're not taking into account how much Putin's propaganda and general opinion shaping has been aimed at promoting mass apathy and disconnection from politics. Yeah he's used that rhetoric. He's also spent decades getting the bulk of the population into a 'Things may not be great but they're better than they were and what's the point complaining because politicians are all the same when you get down to it' mindset. Those things may seem contradictory, and they are, but it means a lot of Russians simultaneously sorta believe the rhetoric about Ukrainians/NATO/the war and will also just sorta shrug and keep their heads down if they see something that contradicts it.

And also as previously mentioned he has what is apparently a pretty damned good internal police army to deal with dissent before it has a chance to take off. If he backs down and ends the war it'll be a lot easier for most people to just go "Yeah well can't really trust anything you hear on the news" and go about their lives than to riot or something.

[LadyTevar]

Aaaaand then we have this bullshit.

Could Russia really play nuclear roulette

Last week, Profile published an article by prominent Russian foreign and defence policy expert Sergei Karaganov. The hawkish Mr Karaganov is honorary chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy. In short, he's well-connected to those in power here.

His argument goes like this. In order to "break the West's will", Russia "will have to make nuclear deterrence a convincing argument again by lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons".

"The enemy must know that we are ready to deliver a pre-emptive strike in retaliation for all of its current and past acts of aggression in order to prevent a slide into global thermonuclear war.

"But what if they do not back down? In this case, we will have to hit a bunch of targets in a number of countries in order to bring those who have lost their mind to reason."

[Batman]

""bring those who have lost their mind to reason."" So-retarget all of your missiles on Moscow then?

[Prannon]

Well, overnight things have gotten interesting. Evgeny Prigozhin (the guy behind the Wagner private military company of Bakhmut infamy) gave an interview, which has been translated on twitter, where he basically says that the war with Ukraine was started on false pretenses to enrich the oligarch class in Russia.

A few hours after that, he claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense struck his outfit with missiles and killed some thousands, and called for an armed uprising against the Ministry of Defense (and Shoigu in particular). He also said that Wagner would begin a justice march against those who've murdered hundreds of thousands of Russians in the meat grinder that this war has been.

The wartranslated twitter account is pretty good, and I would recommend reviewing the past few hours of his posts to get caught up.

I've trolled through a few other twitter accounts that I trust, and the general consensus at the moment is:

• This is real, and Prigozhin _has_ launched an armed rebellion.

• Nothing has super duper really happened yet? At least that was the case an hour ago. Jimmy here has posted a thread of Wager units apparently seizing the Southern Military District building in Rostov-on-Don. This doesn't look like a nothing burger to me.

• Prigozhin doesn't really have a chance, and he's probably been driven to this in desperation due to recent events (MOD trying to force Wagner to sign official military contracts to integrate them with the regular army). A lot of Russia's senior military leaders have lined up with Putin and have told Wagner to stand down, so there doesn't seem to be a split in the elite.

I'm in a wait and see mode, personally. It's a good development for Ukraine, certainly, but I wouldn't assume that this will lead to some sudden collapse.