Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by The Infidel »

Putin declares martial law in the occupied territories.
Hopefully, it won't last long as the only las there should be Ukrainian.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... index.html
Martial law in 4 annexed Ukrainian regions will come into effect on Thursday, according to Putin's decree

Martial law in the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims to have annexed will come into effect Thursday, according to the decree published by the press service of the Kremlin on Wednesday which was signed by Russian President Putin.

Remember: The regions — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk — are not under full Russian control. Western nations have decried the annexations, which violate international law, and vowed not to recognize them as Russian territory.

“I decide to introduce martial law on October 20, 2022 from zero hours in the territories of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions,” the decree reads.

According to the decree, territorial defense headquarters are being created in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

On Wednesday, Viktor Vodolatsky, Russian State Duma deputy, told Russian state media TASS that the introduction of martial law implies strengthening the work of all security and law enforcement services.

According to Vodolatsky, the evacuation of residents of the DPR, LPR and Zaporizhzhia region is not planned, the exception will be the Kherson region, where it is already taking place
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

The Infidel wrote: 2022-10-19 10:56am Putin declares martial law in the occupied territories.
Hopefully, it won't last long as the only las there should be Ukrainian.
Personally I wonder how he expects them to ENFORCE Martial Law in an area that's rapidly being retaken by the original owners, when his own troops are retreating.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Ralin »

LadyTevar wrote: 2022-10-20 09:59pm Personally I wonder how he expects them to ENFORCE Martial Law in an area that's rapidly being retaken by the original owners, when his own troops are retreating.
By re-conquering it, I imagine.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

Ralin wrote: 2022-10-20 10:10pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2022-10-20 09:59pm Personally I wonder how he expects them to ENFORCE Martial Law in an area that's rapidly being retaken by the original owners, when his own troops are retreating.
By re-conquering it, I imagine.
Arrest a bunch of civilians, put them into a prison, and now they are human shields/hostages.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Solauren wrote: 2022-10-20 10:27pm
Ralin wrote: 2022-10-20 10:10pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2022-10-20 09:59pm Personally I wonder how he expects them to ENFORCE Martial Law in an area that's rapidly being retaken by the original owners, when his own troops are retreating.
By re-conquering it, I imagine.
Arrest a bunch of civilians, put them into a prison, and now they are human shields/hostages.
Still doesn't solve then "when his own troops are retreating" issue, unless you're planning on using trains, ships or cars as prisons those prisons aren't gonna follow the retreating troops.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by bilateralrope »

Solauren wrote: 2022-10-20 10:27pm
Ralin wrote: 2022-10-20 10:10pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2022-10-20 09:59pm Personally I wonder how he expects them to ENFORCE Martial Law in an area that's rapidly being retaken by the original owners, when his own troops are retreating.
By re-conquering it, I imagine.
Arrest a bunch of civilians, put them into a prison, and now they are human shields/hostages.
Why do that when they are already "evacuating" civilians from one of the regions ?
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

Putin doesn't have to use Nukes to get a final Fuck You. Just blow a dam wide open.
Zelensky accuses Russia of plot to blow up dam

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of preparing to blow up a dam at a hydroelectric plant in southern Ukraine, which would lead to a "large-scale disaster".

In his overnight address he said the Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper river had been mined by Russian forces, according to Ukrainian information.

The dam is under Russian occupation, but Ukrainian forces are closing in.

Russia has already accused Ukraine of firing missiles at the Kakhovka dam.

The dam also provides Russia with one of the few remaining routes across the Dnieper river in the partially occupied Kherson region.

Russian-installed authorities in Kherson have rejected Ukraine's allegations of a plot to destroy the structure. They blamed Ukrainian forces for an attack on another key crossing, the Antonivskiy Bridge. Four people were killed, including the head of a TV channel, officials said.

Russia began evacuating its proxy authorities in Kherson this week but also said 50-60,000 civilians would leave too, a measure condemned as forced deportations by Kyiv authorities.

Russia's new military commander in Ukraine, Gen Sergei Surovikin, alleged that Ukrainian forces could be planning "banned methods of warfare" in Kherson city and the hydroelectric dam and argued that justified the "evacuation" of the civilian population.

The Institute for the Study of War, an independent US-based think tank, has suggested Russia is "likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack" on the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant, by creating "information conditions" for Russian forces to blow up the dam after they pull out of western Kherson and then accuse Ukraine of flooding the river and surrounding settlements.

President Zelensky told EU leaders by video on Thursday that Russia had already destroyed more than a third of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with the aim of creating as many problems with electricity and heating as possible over the winter months. For the first time since the start of the Russian invasion, Ukrainians have been asked to use less electricity, with nationwide limits on usage between 07:00 and 23:00.

If the Kakhovka dam were destroyed, Mr Zelensky warned it could devastate the water supply to much of the south and leave Europe's biggest nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia without cooling water.

"The dam of this hydroelectric power plant holds a volume of about 18m cubic meters of water," he said. "If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds of thousands of people could be affected."

The Ukrainian leader also said if the dam were destroyed then the North Crimean Canal would "simply disappear".

The canal, built in 1975, provides Russian-annexed Crimea with a reported 85% of its water supply. An early act in Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February was blowing up a dam that Ukraine had built in the canal after the peninsula was seized in 2014, accusing Russia of not paying for the water.

Several Russian commentators have pointed out that areas under occupation would be worst hit if the Kakhovka dam were destroyed, although dozens of communities under Ukrainian control would be badly affected too.

Pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda said a dam explosion would prompt a 5m-high wave that would wash away all villages beside the Dnieper river at a rate of 25km/h. Within two hours it said the water would hit Kherson city and flood vast areas over three days.

However, presidential office adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said that mining the dam was all part of a "Surovikin plan" that involved flooding territory to stop Ukraine's counter-offensive.

President Zelensky said that if the Russians were seriously considering blowing up the Kakhovka dam, it meant they realised they would not merely lose control of Kherson but the entire south including Crimea.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

Lord Revan wrote: 2022-10-21 03:43am
Solauren wrote: 2022-10-20 10:27pm
Ralin wrote: 2022-10-20 10:10pm

By re-conquering it, I imagine.
Arrest a bunch of civilians, put them into a prison, and now they are human shields/hostages.
Still doesn't solve then "when his own troops are retreating" issue, unless you're planning on using trains, ships or cars as prisons those prisons aren't gonna follow the retreating troops.
And you don't expect something like that from Putin because?????
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

LadyTevar wrote: 2022-10-21 10:57am Putin doesn't have to use Nukes to get a final Fuck You. Just blow a dam wide open.
Zelensky accuses Russia of plot to blow up dam

SNIPPED

President Zelensky said that if the Russians were seriously considering blowing up the Kakhovka dam, it meant they realised they would not merely lose
Yeah, that would be a very effective way of going 'Fuck you, if I can't have it, you can't, without risking the planet getting turned into a glowing sheet of glass. Also, time it right, and you would do alot of damage to the Ukraine's military.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Solauren wrote: 2022-10-21 02:11pm
Lord Revan wrote: 2022-10-21 03:43am
Solauren wrote: 2022-10-20 10:27pm

Arrest a bunch of civilians, put them into a prison, and now they are human shields/hostages.
Still doesn't solve then "when his own troops are retreating" issue, unless you're planning on using trains, ships or cars as prisons those prisons aren't gonna follow the retreating troops.
And you don't expect something like that from Putin because?????
Because trains, ships and cars need money and planning and Russians seem to lack both. Especially planning
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

Solauren wrote: 2022-10-21 02:14pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2022-10-21 10:57am Putin doesn't have to use Nukes to get a final Fuck You. Just blow a dam wide open.
Zelensky accuses Russia of plot to blow up dam

SNIPPED

President Zelensky said that if the Russians were seriously considering blowing up the Kakhovka dam, it meant they realised they would not merely lose
Yeah, that would be a very effective way of going 'Fuck you, if I can't have it, you can't, without risking the planet getting turned into a glowing sheet of glass. Also, time it right, and you would do alot of damage to the Ukraine's military.
The problem is this would also affect Crimea, so it'd be a very final "Scorched Earth" if Putin makes the call. He would seriously have lost everything.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

LadyTevar wrote: 2022-10-22 11:00am
Solauren wrote: 2022-10-21 02:14pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2022-10-21 10:57am Putin doesn't have to use Nukes to get a final Fuck You. Just blow a dam wide open.

Yeah, that would be a very effective way of going 'Fuck you, if I can't have it, you can't, without risking the planet getting turned into a glowing sheet of glass. Also, time it right, and you would do alot of damage to the Ukraine's military.
The problem is this would also affect Crimea, so it'd be a very final "Scorched Earth" if Putin makes the call. He would seriously have lost everything.
It's either that or it's "didn't really think this thru" which sadly doesn't seem to all that common in the Russian hierarchy currently.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

Let's think it through. What if Putin orders that damn destroyed?

First, he'll blame the Ukraine for it.
(Hoping Russians will be outraged at the deaths of so many Crimeans)

Second, he'll probably take out alot of the Ukraines military.
That would take pressure off of the Russian military (and prevent a Ukraine offensive into Russia, as they now have a bigger problem)

Third, he won't be paying for the damages. The Ukraine will have to
That would put economic pressure on the Ukraine.

Fourth, he's probably hoping companies he and his allies are invested in, or connected to financially, will be hired for rebulding or supplies of the damaged/destroyed area.
(Hiding ownership of shares isn't that hard. 25% of a legitimate Construction Company could be own by 'Holding SHell Company 1', which is owned by a second, which is partially owned by 3 companies, which is owned by 2 companies, which is owned by a company in China
That company in China is owned by Putin).

Fifth, by doing all that, he's hoping to retain power in Russia

Russian Big Wigs - Hey, we lost the war
Putin - Our companies stand to make several hundred billion dollars in profit helping with the repairs. My plan worked.
R.B.W - Hurrah for Putin!

Will that happen?
Probably not, but I can see Putin thinking it would.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by bilateralrope »

Wagner Group recruits large number of prisoners with HIV and hepatitis, marking them with wristbands
STANISLAV POHORILOV — TUESDAY, 25 OCTOBER 2022, 11:34

The Russian private military company Wagner has started to recruit large numbers of prisoners who are suffering from serious infectious diseases such as HIV and hepatitis C for the war in Ukraine. The phenomenon has already become widespread.

Source: press service of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence

Details: The fact that more than a hundred prisoners with confirmed HIV or hepatitis C have been recruited at Penal Colony No. 5 in Metalostroy (Leningrad Oblast, Russia) alone shows that this phenomenon is widespread.

The Wagner Group command "marks" the infected soldiers by forcing prisoners to wear red wristbands if they are HIV-positive and white ones if they have hepatitis.

According to the intelligence, the fighters are becoming angry about this situation. Russian medics are known to routinely refuse to treat injured [soldiers] with hepatitis or HIV.

Several fighters with HIV or hepatitis are already in Ukrainian captivity and have confirmed the information about the mass recruitment of infected prisoners by Wagner.
Are they desperate for recruits and/or do they want to maximise suffering ?
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

I wonder if part of the issue Russia is having with getting recruits is that young Russian are realizing that real war isn't like Call of Duty or Counter-Strike with aim bots and wall hacks turned on. Thus they're forced to recruit from less then optimal sources.

Though this news items could be also a case of the Wagner group (and/or Russian Government) hoping the recruits will infect the Ukrainian troops.

EDIT: It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Russian HQ is encouraging the idea among new recruits that they're some kind of war gods because they got top of the player ladder while playing an FPS with cheats on and then those recruits get exposed to their first taste of real combat and their will to fight more or less evaporates when faced with the unforgiving cruelty of modern war.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

Yes, if anything it's more like Battlefield. Though to be fair to CoD, the campaigns for the Modern Warfare era do not shy away from the fact that War is Hell.

Russia is probably using it as an opportunity to send them into the meatgrinder so they don't have to pay for the medication for infected prisoners when they get killed, so they'd be used as cannon fodder.

I've heard rumours that if the Republicans retake control of the House of Representatives in the midterms, they'd cut off aid to Ukraine because reasons.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2022-10-25 02:53pm Russia is probably using it as an opportunity to send them into the meatgrinder so they don't have to pay for the medication for infected prisoners when they get killed, so they'd be used as cannon fodder.
THIS.

The purpose of sending the sick, injuried, or criminals into combat is to get them killed off (to save you money), captured so the enemy has to care for them. In the case of criminals, you also hope they'll disappear into the enemy territory and become someone elses problem.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by bilateralrope »

Russia takes 'dirty bomb' allegation to UN
12:02, Oct 26 2022

Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator says Russian forces have been performing secret work at Europe's largest nuclear power plant, activity that could shed light on Russia’s claims that the Ukrainian military is preparing a “provocation” involving a radioactive device.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu made an unsubstantiated allegation that Ukraine was preparing to launch a so-called dirty bomb.

Shoigu made the charge over the weekend in calls to his British, French, Turkish and US counterparts. Britain, France and the United States rejected it out of hand as “transparently false.”

Ukraine also dismissed Moscow’s claim as an attempt to distract attention from the Kremlin’s own alleged plans to detonate a dirty bomb, which uses explosives to scatter radioactive waste in an effort to sow terror.

Energoatom, the Ukrainian state enterprise that operates the country's four nuclear power plants, said Russian forces have carried out secret construction work over the last week at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine.

Russian officers controlling the area won’t give access to Ukrainian staff running the plant or monitors from the UN's atomic energy watchdog that would allow them to see what the Russians are doing, Energoatom said in a statement issued on Tuesday (local time).

Energoatom said it “assumes" the Russians “are preparing a terrorist act using nuclear materials and radioactive waste stored at” the plant. It said there were 174 containers at the plant’s dry spent fuel storage facility, each of them containing 24 assemblies of spent nuclear fuel.

“Destruction of these containers as a result of explosion will lead to a radiation accident and radiation contamination of several hundred square kilometres of the adjacent territory,” the company said.

It called on the International Atomic Energy Agency to assess what was going on.

The UN Security Council was scheduled to hold closed-door consultations about the dirty-bomb allegations on Wednesday(NZT) at Russia's request.

Russia asked the council to establish a commission to investigate its claims that the United States and Ukraine are violating the convention prohibiting the use of biological weapons at laboratories in Ukraine.

Soon after Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine, its UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, claimed that secret American labs in Ukraine were engaged in biological warfare –a charge denied by the US and Ukraine.

The Kremlin has insisted that its warning of a purported Ukrainian plan to use a dirty bomb should be taken seriously and criticised Western nations for shrugging it off.

The dismissal of Moscow's warning is “unacceptable in view of the seriousness of the danger that we have talked about,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Speaking during a conference call with reporters, Peskov added: “We again emphasise the grave danger posed by the plans hatched by the Ukrainians.”

The White House on Monday again underscored that the Russian allegations were false.

“It’s just not true. We know it’s not true,” said John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council. “In the past, the Russians have, on occasion, blamed others for things that they were planning to do.”

Dirty bombs don’t have the devastating destruction of a nuclear explosion but could expose broad areas to radioactive contamination.
Sounds like Russia are planning to use radioactive material from the Zaporizhzhia plant in a dirty bomb. If they think other countries will believe that it was a Ukrainian bomb.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Ralin »

So, apparently this guy was fairly up at RT and has been fired/suspended. Turns out advocating the mass killing of Ukranian children and talking about how lucky elderly Ukranian women would be to get raped by Russian soldiers is still something you aren't supposed to come out and say on state TV.

From what I've read elsewhere many Russians have commented online to the effect that it's really not surprising he would say something so horrible since he is a known homosexual.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Ralin wrote: 2022-10-26 03:04am So, apparently this guy was fairly up at RT and has been fired/suspended. Turns out advocating the mass killing of Ukranian children and talking about how lucky elderly Ukranian women would be to get raped by Russian soldiers is still something you aren't supposed to come out and say on state TV.

From what I've read elsewhere many Russians have commented online to the effect that it's really not surprising he would say something so horrible since he is a known homosexual.
Russians being homophobic isn't really newsworthy these days, though I do wonder how gay people were among the Russian refugees who fled the country when this all started seeing as Putin's government no longer seems to care what others think and probably will now enact much harsher homophobic laws.

As for the person who got fired, yeah Putin stills wants to project the image that the Russians are good guys here, just because no one outside Russia or Belorussia is buying doesn't seem to have changed that.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by bilateralrope »

Ralin wrote: 2022-10-26 03:04am So, apparently this guy was fairly up at RT and has been fired/suspended. Turns out advocating the mass killing of Ukranian children and talking about how lucky elderly Ukranian women would be to get raped by Russian soldiers is still something you aren't supposed to come out and say on state TV.

From what I've read elsewhere many Russians have commented online to the effect that it's really not surprising he would say something so horrible since he is a known homosexual.
I saw something elsewhere about him saying Ukrainian children should be drowned. When it looks like Russia is planning to blow a dam.
He's pro-rape, while Russia is recruiting prisoners with HIV and hepatitis.

It looks like he was fired for saying the quiet part out loud.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Zaune »

You know, that's what I don't get about this: What do the Russian leadership think they stand to gain from allowing or even encouraging their troops to shoot for a full house in War Crimes Bingo? Even if the last of the men who remember the Nazis firsthand are all long retired or dead, you'd think they'd retain some institutional memory of how well that worked when it was Mother Russia on the other end of it. Unless they're absolutely committed to the systematic genocide of every Ukrainian who's not "ethnically Russian", of course, and I have no idea what they stand to gain from that either. In the increasingly likely event that Russia makes any permanent gains, a lot of oligarchs are going to be very annoyed that they don't have any peasants to farm the lands they've been gifted in return for all those backhanders.

I dunno, maybe Putin's also coming down with dementia and everyone who could talk sense into him has been sacked or worse.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by bilateralrope »

Here's an opinion piece you might find interesting:Russia's brutalisation in Ukraine is a losing strategy
Paul Buchanan
05:00, Oct 26 2022

Dr Paul G Buchanan is a former intelligence and defence policy analyst and consultant to US government security agencies who specialises in matters of comparative politics, international relations and security.


OPINION: The war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine since Vladimir Putin launched his “special military operation” in February have rightly been the subject of widespread and detailed reporting.

Less attention has been paid to the question of why Russian forces have been torturing, murdering, raping and pillaging in many of the areas they've occupied, or to the question of why they have targeted civilian infrastructure as well as civilians.

Many fighting cultures incorporate brutality into the warfare mix, and the Russians military culture is one of them.

Their attitude is that “if we cannot have it, then no one can,” and they destroy everything that they can as they retreat.

Part of that is literally destroying people and communities as a warning and reminder of what they are capable of.

If we remember that Russia invaded Ukraine under the pretext of “de-Nazification” but which in fact was an attempt at cultural genocide and regime change, then the destruction left behind retreating Russian forces becomes more understandable even if utterly indefensible.

Trouble is, brutalisation is a losing strategy. It does not achieve military strategic objectives either on the offensive or when in retreat. It reveals a military organisation to be an ill-disciplined criminal mob.

Moreover, prosecution for atrocities is more likely today than ever before because, for example, war crimes investigations are better today than before.

There is more video evidence and scientific forensics. Accused perpetrators in lower ranks can cut deals in order to blame superiors.

As atrocities and the futility of pursuing victory in a losing war of opportunity are revealed, even homeland support for the war wanes.

The proof of this in Russia is in the reaction of potential conscripts to Putin’s recent call-up (who voted with their feet by crossing borders into neighbouring states in droves), and in the increasingly angry debates in the government controlled media (and behind the scenes in Putin’s political circles).

Plus, the morale of the Ukrainians only hardens in the wake of atrocities, which is especially important in Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine where the Russians thought that they would find support, only to find out that being an ethnic Russian or Russian-speaking Ukrainian does not mean that one wants to be Russian.

In turn, that realisation has made Russian occupiers all the more prone to atrocities because they believe that they have been betrayed by what should have been ethnic kin.

That, and the counterproductive nature of the Russian air campaign targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, is almost ensuring eventual Russian retreat, if not defeat.

As the strategist Robert Pape has noted, air campaigns that seek to terrorise civilian populations such as the fire-bombing of Dresden and Tokyo did not result in German or Japanese military surrender.

In fact, successful “punishment” air campaigns that seek to destroy civilian morale and support for continuing war efforts are the exception to the rule.

The nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were “successful” not in that they killed many civilians and undermined the Japanese population’s will to fight, but because they demonstrated that there was no strategic defence against them, especially when a US ground invasion force was being assembled over the horizon that could follow up on the nuclear air-based “hammer” with the conventional “anvil” of ground assaults.

The logic behind the Japanese surrender was a military calculus, not a result of a loss of civilian moral support.

In the Ukraine, the Ukrainians have the advantage on the ground. Russian air strikes on their civilian infrastructure have had physical effect (including a loss of 30 percent of its electricity generation capacity) but have not undermined the morale of the population. The Russian anvil is in retreat, and its hammer has a ball-pean rather than a sledge effect.

For now the strategic race is into winter: can the Ukrainians roll back the Russians sufficiently by January, or can the Russians hold on until then in order to see if energy shortages cause domestic unrest in the EU that fractures the anti-Russian coalition?

There have already been anti-energy price demonstrations in the Czech Republic, Germany, Belgium and France; the new Italian government is full of pro-Russian right-wingers (including Silvio Berlusconi) who want to side with Putin; Hungary refuses to cooperate with Nato; Serbia is just another version of Belarus; and various motley crews of lefties and righties throughout Europe want Nato out of the Ukraine support business.

Putin is relying on those deepening fractures for long-term strategic success. He and his advisors believe that if they can hold the line in Ukraine until the deepest days of the European winter, then resolve within the EU and Nato will crack as politicians see electoral dangers in public discomfort and increased civil society resistance to ongoing sacrifices tied to supporting Ukraine’s war effort.

He may or may not be right. He has miscalculated along these lines before, during the planning for an initial days of the invasion when he thought that Nato would prove to be a paper tiger and succumb to his threats by not intervening on behalf of Ukraine even in a support role.

We shall see what scenario pans out. Ukraine needs to press its advantages while it can, which means now.

Brutality is an integral part of Russian fighting culture. It may work against opposing forces when defending the motherland but, even if conducted by air and on the ground, it does not work as an intimidation, warning and/or deterrent tactic when pursuing an expeditionary war of opportunity against a smaller but determined adversary fighting on its own territory with the support of other great and medium powers. In fact, it could well hasten defeat.
Basically, it's tough guy thinking. If we hurt them badly enough, they will do what we want. If that's not working, hit them harder. No attempt at understanding their opponents.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Zaune »

bilateralrope wrote: 2022-10-26 08:48amBasically, it's tough guy thinking. If we hurt them badly enough, they will do what we want. If that's not working, hit them harder. No attempt at understanding their opponents.
That's the thing, though. Putin always struck me as a somewhat deeper thinker than that. After all, one doesn't get to be rather senior in the KGB, enter politics in the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union imploding and ultimately manouevre oneself into becoming Tsar in all but name without picking up a pretty good understanding of human psychology along the way.

But like I said, maybe old age is finally catching up to him.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

More Saber-rattling, or prepping for the real thing?
Putin Watches Russian Nuclear Missile Test

Vladimir Putin has overseen annual nuclear exercises by Russia's strategic nuclear forces at a time of heightened tensions with the West over his eight-month-long war in Ukraine.

Ballistic and cruise missiles were launched in the Far East and Arctic, the Kremlin said.

The US was told about the drill under the terms of the New Start arms treaty.
These are ANNUAL tests, it seems, but NATO is answering.

From the same article:
Ahead of the exercise, military officials in Washington pointed out that, in notifying the US, the Russians were complying with arms control obligations.

Nato is also staging its own nuclear exercises, dubbed Steadfast Noon, in north-western Europe. The Western defensive alliance said training flights involving 14 countries were taking place until Sunday over Belgium, the UK and the North Sea.
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