UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by wautd »

Lavrov declares Moldova will be Russia's next victim and declares hybrid war against the country

(I'm quoting TASS Russian state media/disinformation channel, so don't forget to replace West/Brussels with Russia/Moscow to translate Kremlin BS to reality)
Moldova 'next victim' in West’s hybrid war against Russia — Lavrov
The Russian foreign minister also pointed out that the Kozak memorandum could have settled relations between Moldova and Transnistria 20 years ago
SKOPJE, November 30. /TASS/. The West has set its sights on Moldova as its next victim in the hybrid war that Western countries have unleashed against Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at an OSCE meeting.

He said the Kozak memorandum could have settled relations between Moldova and Transnistria 20 years ago, but this effort was derailed. Brussels "unceremoniously torpedoed" the proposal even after Chisinau and Tiraspol tentatively approved it, the minister said at the meeting of the Ministerial Council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

"Now they are killing the 5+2 format, the last thing that remains from joint efforts on the Transnistrian settlement," Lavrov said. "Moldova is essentially being readied as the next victim in the hybrid war that the West unleashed against Russia."

He added that every country that has a presence of Western emissaries, foundations and nongovernmental organizations "needs to think hard."
although to be fair, Russia was already waging a hybrid war against Moldova. I guess they want to fully annex it instead
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by LaCroix »

Zaune wrote: 2023-12-03 05:18pm
LaCroix wrote: 2023-12-02 11:04amA quick tally of "electrical fires" reported by the Russian MOD the last few days...
Some of them might even be genuine. Russia's doing badly enough that they've probably had to conscript a lot of people in what would previously have been considered reserved occupations, not to mention all the replacement equipment and spares getting hoovered up by the army: Deferred maintenance and jury-rigged repairs must be doing more damage than Ukrainian special forces and local malcontents combined.
I would assume that most of those that are not genuine sabotage or admitted drone strikes by the UAF are falling under these 2 catagories:

1.) Overworked people forced to meet quotas in production so their bosses are not criminally persecuted for failing to meet targets making even more mistakes than usual, in a worse environment thatn usual. Russian industry is not really the leader in workplace security, and stress, volatile materials, and generally lower skill level of the remaining workforce is not making things any safer.

2.) (And I do think this is the vast majority of the "accidents") Is simply the boss deliberately causing an incident so he can get out of the impossible production targets, cashes in on the money he already skimmed and gets some insurance payout on top.

This wave of accidents will most likely get worse as the targets were increased, and Medjedev and others are making noises about criminalizing people who do not meet the targets. These targets are generally unreachable due to lack of qualified personal, sometimes lack of material, lack of modern machinery, lack of investment in expanding the production and too much skimming off.

Speaking of, today another huge fire in Moscow, about 1 sqare KM!!! of industrial production burnt down. Pretty sure we'll have on of those every other day, soon.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

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Russia Lureing Migrants from Finland Border into Military Contracts

TL/DR : Refugees are being lured to the Russia/Finland border, which the Fins have closed, and the Russians are detaining the Refugees who've outstayed their 30day visa. They're given a option to join the Russian Military "for a year", but all the paperwork is in Russian which they can't read. They're shipped to a training camp to be made into soldiers.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Zaune »

Hah. Oh yes, conscripts who are more likely to turn their weapons on their own officers and surrender to the first Ukrainian soldier they find than put up a fight are really going to help turn the tide.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Lord Revan »

Zaune wrote: 2023-12-07 08:26pm Hah. Oh yes, conscripts who are more likely to turn their weapons on their own officers and surrender to the first Ukrainian soldier they find than put up a fight are really going to help turn the tide.
I suspects are only there to make up the numbers and to make sure the wealthy ethnic Russians from St. Petersburg or Moscow don't have to feel the effects of the war.

Idea isn't to get effective units, just more cannon fodder.

and if they surrender it's more logistical problems for the Ukrainians
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by bilateralrope »

Number of Deserting Russian Troops Surges
With no end to the war or likelihood of release from service in sight, the number of Russian soldiers seeking a way out has increased sharply over the last few months.

by Kyiv Post | December 7, 2023, 11:53 am


As Russia’s 21-month war in Ukraine drags on, reports are appearing that the numbers of its mobilized soldiers seeking to desert are surging.

On Tuesday the Moscow Times quoted the Georgian-based group Idite Lesom that aids troops attempting to leave Putin’s army, saying it had experienced an 89 percent increase in requests for assistance over the past few months.

The group’s name translates literally from Russian to “go through the forest,” although among troops it is more often used as a curse roughly equivalent to “get lost” or even “go f*** yourself.”

Grigory Sverdlin, founder and leader of the group said that between June and August it had received 305 requests for help but between September and November this number had almost doubled.

He told the news outlet that most requests had come from those who had been wounded, treated in hospital but then made to return to the front line.

Sergei Krivenko, director of the human rights group “Grazhdanin. Armiya. Pravo.” (“Citizen. Army. Law.”) echoed this view saying: “A year has passed since the beginning of mobilization. If some people still had hopes that they could go home after a certain period of service, there are no such illusions now.

He noted that “servicemen see that there is no rotation, that even seriously wounded men are being sent back to the front after being hospitalized.”

The Ukrainian equivalent of Idite Lesom, the government sponsored Khochu Zhyt (I Want to Live), also indicated that it has seen an increasing number of Russian troops trying to get out.

A spokesman for the project, Vitaly Matvienko, told the Meduza web-site in September that in the year Khochu Zhyt has been working, it was launched to coincide with Putin’s 2022 mobilization announcement, the project has received over 22,000 applications from Russians wishing to voluntary surrender to Ukraine.

He was unwilling to confirm how many of those requests had become actual desertions for security reasons. He also said that, to protect the individual from any Russian reprisals, those voluntarily surrendering were registered as being “captured in action” along with all other prisoners of war.

In August, Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military’s intelligence directorate (HUR), told the Ukrainian УНІАН news agency that one in five POWs captured by Kyiv surrender voluntarily.

“Every day, three to five Russian servicemen surrender under the ‘I Want to Live’ program,” he said.

In September Yusov said that there had been an almost 70 percent increase in the numbers seeking to desert following the Aug. 23 defection by Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov, who flew his Mi-8 armored combat helicopter to a Ukrainian airfield in an operation engineered by the HUR called “Sinitsa.”

Quoting the Russian online publication Mediazona, the New Voice of Ukraine news outlet said on Nov. 24 that since the start of the September 2022 mobilization in Russia, more than 4,000 criminal prosecutions for desertion had been brought before Russian courts.

Recent reports have indicated that it is not just the troops on the front line who have had enough. Their families are beginning to protest, forming a Telegram group with 30,000 members to organize demonstrations, petitions and letters to the Russian president demanding the return of those who have been fighting for more than a year without relief.

Now, with the public support of their families – in addition to a harsh winter setting in and battles such as that in Avdiivka turning into another meat-grinder slog – it is likely that the numbers of Russian troops seeking a way out will increase in the coming weeks and months.
I wonder how an increase in the number of desertions looks to Russian citizens. If they even know about them.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Broomstick »

Lord Revan wrote: 2023-11-18 01:46am
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-11-17 01:43pm
Lord Revan wrote: 2023-11-17 06:09am Hopefully this means Putin will pull out before a total collapse as a civil war in a country with nukes is a Bad Thing(tm).
That assumes he's still alive, there's plenty of rumours persisting that he actually died and it's someone else pulling the strings.
Even if someone else is ruling in his name, the point stands, I hope whoever is in charge of Russia stops this madness before Russia devolves into a civil war and us near Russia have to worry about some warlord nuking us for what ever reason.
Given Russia capabilities, even diminished, in many ways everyone is a neighbor. Still, some are are closer neighbors than others.

I shudder to contemplate a nation with nuclear weapons devolving into civil war.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Broomstick »

bilateralrope wrote: 2023-11-28 05:59am
wautd wrote: 2023-11-28 03:11am Sadly, western tankies/pro Russian propagandists seem to think that's an entirely reasonable demand
How do they try to justify the "don't join NATO" part ?

Because I don't see anything else that would stop Russia from trying again once they have rebuilt their military.
That's a feature not a bug.

The pro-Russian contingent don't want Ukraine to exist, they believe Russia is entitled to that land and resources.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Lord Revan »

Broomstick wrote: 2023-12-08 08:30am
Lord Revan wrote: 2023-11-18 01:46am
EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-11-17 01:43pm
That assumes he's still alive, there's plenty of rumours persisting that he actually died and it's someone else pulling the strings.
Even if someone else is ruling in his name, the point stands, I hope whoever is in charge of Russia stops this madness before Russia devolves into a civil war and us near Russia have to worry about some warlord nuking us for what ever reason.
Given Russia capabilities, even diminished, in many ways everyone is a neighbor. Still, some are are closer neighbors than others.

I shudder to contemplate a nation with nuclear weapons devolving into civil war.
True but as you, yourself have observed people for whom Russia isn't right next to them tend to have a more simplistic idea as to what risks Civil War in Russia would cause, us right at their doorstep don't really have the luxury.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Vympel »

*reads a post unironically positing that Putin is dead or somehow incapacitated*

If you actually believe this is is a possibility then you have created an epistemic bubble for yourself about this war that is so delusional and outside of reality you really need to wake up. I mean goddamn. His activities are not even remotely secret. He just had a state visit in the UAE. Like last week. This is an insane belief to hold. Like what is going on that this is a story still being spread around in late 2023?
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Solauren »

Vympel wrote: 2023-12-10 04:56pm *reads a post unironically positing that Putin is dead or somehow incapacitated*
There was alot of speculation on the internet about a month ago due to a report 'health crisis' or something like that.
Putin showed up a few days later, and anyone with brains is now going 'meh, too bad'.

Vympel wrote: 2023-12-10 04:56pm If you actually believe this is is a possibility then you have created an epistemic bubble for yourself about this war that is so delusional and outside of reality you really need to wake up. I mean goddamn. His activities are not even remotely secret. He just had a state visit in the UAE. Like last week. This is an insane belief to hold. Like what is going on that this is a story still being spread around in late 2023?
It's the same as the 'Cool Putin' stuff from about 5 - 6 years ago (or so, how long has it been).
Putin is a note-worthy figure, BUT he's also responsible for a major war. And he keeps making shit claims that could lead to the war spreading.

People are hoping the fucker drops dead or is removed from power, and that ends the war.

I have no doubt during WW2, rumors of Hitler's death spread from time to time. For much the same reason.

At this point, to believe Putin is dead; I want to hear Russian State media announce it (probably blaming the Ukraine), then it get picked up by mainstream media.

I won't believe it will change anything until something actually changes.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Vympel »

Solauren wrote: 2023-12-10 06:25pm
Vympel wrote: 2023-12-10 04:56pm *reads a post unironically positing that Putin is dead or somehow incapacitated*
There was alot of speculation on the internet about a month ago due to a report 'health crisis' or something like that.
Putin showed up a few days later, and anyone with brains is now going 'meh, too bad'.
Vympel wrote: 2023-12-10 04:56pm If you actually believe this is is a possibility then you have created an epistemic bubble for yourself about this war that is so delusional and outside of reality you really need to wake up. I mean goddamn. His activities are not even remotely secret. He just had a state visit in the UAE. Like last week. This is an insane belief to hold. Like what is going on that this is a story still being spread around in late 2023?
It's the same as the 'Cool Putin' stuff from about 5 - 6 years ago (or so, how long has it been).
Putin is a note-worthy figure, BUT he's also responsible for a major war. And he keeps making shit claims that could lead to the war spreading.

People are hoping the fucker drops dead or is removed from power, and that ends the war.

I have no doubt during WW2, rumors of Hitler's death spread from time to time. For much the same reason.

At this point, to believe Putin is dead; I want to hear Russian State media announce it (probably blaming the Ukraine), then it get picked up by mainstream media.

I won't believe it will change anything until something actually changes.
What I've seen is that these dumb stories invariably have their origin from low-quality propaganda being spread by non-credible sources that makes it way to UK (why is it always the UK in particular) rags. It got so bad last year I think one paper did an article on the coverage, calling it "the year Putin didn't die".

At this stage of the war, I simply can't believe its still being spread.

In any event, even if Putin did die, the war would go on. The idea that he's singularly responsible for ongoing Russian prosecution of the war is hopium IMO. There's no peace lobby waiting in the wings.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

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Vympel wrote: 2023-12-10 06:35pm What I've seen is that these dumb stories invariably have their origin from low-quality propaganda being spread by non-credible sources that makes it way to UK (why is it always the UK in particular) rags. It got so bad last year I think one paper did an article on the coverage, calling it "the year Putin didn't die".
British media are the ideal puke funnel for official lies that the National Security State wants spread to American readers and viewers. Remember all the "OH NOES! IRAQ HAS WMDS AND CAN USE THEM IN 45 MINUTES!" bullshit? It was laundered through Fleet Street, since Americans (depending on their "team") will dismiss out of hand articles in the WSJ, NYT, WaPo etc, etc...
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by LadyTevar »

Not Ukraine per se, but concerning.

Alexei Navaliny, Russia Opposition Leader, missing from Penal Colony
Mr Navalny's associates said earlier on Monday they had had no news of him for six days.
He had been absent from several recent court appearances, which he has in the past attended by video link. Prison authorities blamed the absences on technical problems at the colony.
Then Ms Yarmysh said lawyers waiting for news outside Melekhovo, 235 km (145 miles) east of Moscow, and another nearby colony, had been told that he was not registered in either place.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

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Elfdart wrote: 2023-12-11 11:20am British media are the ideal puke funnel for official lies that the National Security State wants spread to American readers and viewers. Remember all the "OH NOES! IRAQ HAS WMDS AND CAN USE THEM IN 45 MINUTES!" bullshit? It was laundered through Fleet Street, since Americans (depending on their "team") will dismiss out of hand articles in the WSJ, NYT, WaPo etc, etc...
Somewhat relatedly, US media coverage of the war has gone more realistic than the rah-rah propaganda mostly put out by the UK media until very recently (some more sober articles have slowly started to appear in some UK papers as well).

NYT just put this out. A week ago WaPo was absurdly calling the Ukrainian counteroffensive 'stalled', but that figleaf is over.

U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive

Extract:
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.

American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.

Some in the U.S. military want Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy — to focus on holding the territory it has and building its ability to produce weapons over 2024. The United States believes the strategy will improve Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and ensure Kyiv is in a position to repel any new Russian drive.
The bolded part about Ukrainian 'self-sufficiency' should be a huge red flag. The idea that Ukraine could somehow produce its own weapons is absolute batshit, pie in the sky stuff.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Elfdart »

Vympel wrote: 2023-12-11 08:10pm
Elfdart wrote: 2023-12-11 11:20am British media are the ideal puke funnel for official lies that the National Security State wants spread to American readers and viewers. Remember all the "OH NOES! IRAQ HAS WMDS AND CAN USE THEM IN 45 MINUTES!" bullshit? It was laundered through Fleet Street, since Americans (depending on their "team") will dismiss out of hand articles in the WSJ, NYT, WaPo etc, etc...
Somewhat relatedly, US media coverage of the war has gone more realistic than the rah-rah propaganda mostly put out by the UK media until very recently (some more sober articles have slowly started to appear in some UK papers as well).

NYT just put this out. A week ago WaPo was absurdly calling the Ukrainian counteroffensive 'stalled', but that figleaf is over.

U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive

Extract:
Many Ukrainian leaders do not realize how precarious continued U.S. funding for the war is, American officials said. These Ukrainian generals and senior civilian officials have unrealistic expectations about what the United States will supply, they said. They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.

American officials say Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.

Some in the U.S. military want Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy — to focus on holding the territory it has and building its ability to produce weapons over 2024. The United States believes the strategy will improve Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and ensure Kyiv is in a position to repel any new Russian drive.
The bolded part about Ukrainian 'self-sufficiency' should be a huge red flag. The idea that Ukraine could somehow produce its own weapons is absolute batshit, pie in the sky stuff.
And a good chunk of spare US ammo is going to the IDF since Washington's one true love is Israel; Ukraine is just an expensive side piece who's about to be asked to give back the keys to the sportscar and move her shit out of the apartment. Zelensky is already taking on the disposition of a mistress scorned.

No need to worry, though. Previous client states and fighting forces are well known to be forgiving when Uncle Sam feeds them to the sharks after getting their hopes up. Like anti-Castro Cubans... and the Mujahadin...
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by LadyTevar »

keep the IVP stuff to that thread, I want no spillovers to taint other threads.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by LaCroix »

Cyberattack succeeded - the Russian Tax system was deleted and completely destroyed. All data lost. Pretty sure they had no backups, neiter.
Must-do joke:
Not really important, for those people who had money didn't pay taxes, anyway, and the others are too poor to pay anything noticable. :D
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by Lord Revan »

Seriously though I suspect those tax records might have the citizen records too so Russia might have just lost massive amount of information on its population and with country as big as Russia that's not something you can rebuild over night.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by bilateralrope »

Could anyone elaborate on exactly how badly that hurts Russia ?

Sure, it sounds very damaging. But I'd like to be sure.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by LadyTevar »

That whole tax record thing must have made Russia mad.

Dozens wounded in Bombing Strike on Kviv
Dozens of people have been injured in a wave of missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv overnight, authorities say.

Fifty-three people were hurt in the attacks, including six children, Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
Kindergarten and hospital buildings were reportedly damaged by debris as authorities said 10 Russian ballistic missiles had been shot down.

The strikes happened after President Volodymyr Zelensky left the US.
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by LadyTevar »

bilateralrope wrote: 2023-12-13 05:22am Could anyone elaborate on exactly how badly that hurts Russia ?

Sure, it sounds very damaging. But I'd like to be sure.
The Western News hasn't heard about this as of 7:30am. I wanna know more too.

I would assume that's a big hit, because a database that large has to have knock-on effects for other government offices, particularly those involving payouts. Governmental Paychecks? Pensions? Government Aid? Tax Refunds?
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by LaCroix »

Also, I think the tax records are the most comprehensive database on your people. Where do they live, what do they work, spouses, children, etc. Do they have an income? A passive income? do they receive Pension? Benefits? How many people work at a company, how much does the company make? Who owns the company? And via bank reporting - do they have savings? How much? Stock? Oversea posessions/jobs?

A lot goes into that database out of sheer convenience, since it has to be your primary database on everybody, anyway.

It could very well be that they lost their whole census data.

On top of the inconvenience that they now have to redo all their tax projections, everything.
And if they are a bit like Hungary (which I assume - where else should a eastern bbloc country have learned how to administrate?), where they set up individual accounts for the taxpayers to pay into to have better overview how much someone has paid - even more issues with accessing those accounts to collect the money accumulating, since they don't know who has which account, anymore and have to re-link everything.

Now add the fact that without that data, it is likely that the triggering of monthly pension money, benefits, state salaries, soldier's pay, etc. might not work properly, sales tax might not work properly,... A lot of things that can wreak havok in public life can happen if they don't fix things quickly. Which they can't. At a time where russians protest that soldiers are not getting paid, people complain that they went weeks without heating in big cities, and have lines forming in front of supermarkets for things like eggs, and an election is looming.

Come to think of it - it might even cause problem with the voting, if they use that database for census purposes, but that isn't really a matter for Russian elections.

And you know too well what would happen if russian companies know that their taxes can not be properly monitored, at least for a while.
A minute's thought suggests that the very idea of this is stupid. A more detailed examination raises the possibility that it might be an answer to the question "how could the Germans win the war after the US gets involved?" - Captain Seafort, in a thread proposing a 1942 'D-Day' in Quiberon Bay

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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by J »

LaCroix wrote: 2023-12-13 04:20am Cyberattack succeeded - the Russian Tax system was deleted and completely destroyed. All data lost. Pretty sure they had no backups, neiter.
Must-do joke:
Not really important, for those people who had money didn't pay taxes, anyway, and the others are too poor to pay anything noticable. :D
Is this from the same source which claimed Putin has died from cancer, liver disease, strokes, and been replaced by a body double a dozen times?
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Re: UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

Post by LaCroix »

As I saidy back then, that source was rumors, based on a real medical emergency that was shrouded in suspicious secrecy (as it turned out - people thought it would be bad PR to admit health problems)

This time, it is an official statement of Kiev, publicated, and based on russian authorities having to deal with the incident and other hacking incidents for a few days, already...
https://kyivindependent.com/military-in ... thorities/

This article is the best I can provide, and it is the least overdramatic, claiming it will cuase at least a month of issues, while others state it might just as well be longer, because all data has to be recollected and re-verifies (e-.g. the database rebuilt from scratch)
A minute's thought suggests that the very idea of this is stupid. A more detailed examination raises the possibility that it might be an answer to the question "how could the Germans win the war after the US gets involved?" - Captain Seafort, in a thread proposing a 1942 'D-Day' in Quiberon Bay

I do archery skeet. With a Trebuchet.
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