Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Zaune]

There is that. Although our current government's relationship with the world as it is as opposed to how they think it ought to be can be rather tenuous, so at this point who knows?

[Lord Revan]

Also that guarentee of Poland is what committed the UK to an all out war that lead to total German defeat, so I'm not sure the analogy works.

It works if you look at it from Poland's point of view: Britain promised to declare war on Nazi Germany if they invaded Poland, and they kept that promise, but by the time they'd sent in the paperwork the Polish government had already been forced to capitulate.

And I can absolutely picture Johnson contriving something like that scenario on purpose, reasoning that he can get all the political benefits of being seen to Take A Firm Line on Russia but never have to back it up with a commitment of UK forces if he can just stall until the occupation is a fait accompli.

Yeah that's my PoV here, as a Finn it doesn't really matter what UK does after Russians have taken over my country, as the chances are if I wasn't killed in the conflict or escaped I'm heading towards the executioner for the crime of not having been born a Russian.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Also that guarentee of Poland is what committed the UK to an all out war that lead to total German defeat, so I'm not sure the analogy works.

It works if you look at it from Poland's point of view: Britain promised to declare war on Nazi Germany if they invaded Poland, and they kept that promise, but by the time they'd sent in the paperwork the Polish government had already been forced to capitulate.

And I can absolutely picture Johnson contriving something like that scenario on purpose, reasoning that he can get all the political benefits of being seen to Take A Firm Line on Russia but never have to back it up with a commitment of UK forces if he can just stall until the occupation is a fait accompli.

Yeah that's my PoV here, as a Finn it doesn't really matter what UK does after Russians have taken over my country, as the chances are if I wasn't killed in the conflict or escaped I'm heading towards the executioner for the crime of not having been born a Russian.

If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.

[Tiriol]

Well, Russia managed to get Finnish President and Prime Minister both come out and officially state that they support speedy application for Nato membership.

[Batman]

Maybe giving them an excellent reason TO join NATO is not the ideal approach to keeping nations OUT of NATO.

[Darth Nostril]

And I can absolutely picture Johnson contriving something like that scenario on purpose, reasoning that he can get all the political benefits of being seen to Take A Firm Line on Russia but never have to back it up with a commitment of UK forces if he can just stall until the occupation is a fait accompli.

He'd never be able to pull it off, Clownshoes Chamberlain is not as clever as he likes to think he is

[ray245]

Maybe giving them an excellent reason TO join NATO is not the ideal approach to keeping nations OUT of NATO.

What a colossal strategic mistake.

[Lord Revan]

It works if you look at it from Poland's point of view: Britain promised to declare war on Nazi Germany if they invaded Poland, and they kept that promise, but by the time they'd sent in the paperwork the Polish government had already been forced to capitulate.

And I can absolutely picture Johnson contriving something like that scenario on purpose, reasoning that he can get all the political benefits of being seen to Take A Firm Line on Russia but never have to back it up with a commitment of UK forces if he can just stall until the occupation is a fait accompli.

Yeah that's my PoV here, as a Finn it doesn't really matter what UK does after Russians have taken over my country, as the chances are if I wasn't killed in the conflict or escaped I'm heading towards the executioner for the crime of not having been born a Russian.

If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.

Well one can't rely on the Russian performance staying as bad as it is currently, to do so would be at best unwise.

[Tribble]

Yeah that's my PoV here, as a Finn it doesn't really matter what UK does after Russians have taken over my country, as the chances are if I wasn't killed in the conflict or escaped I'm heading towards the executioner for the crime of not having been born a Russian.

If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.

Well one can't rely on the Russian performance staying as bad as it is currently, to do so would be at best unwise.

Russia has enough manpower that they could eventually overwhelm Finland via sheer numbers… or if all else fails use WMDs.

That being said, given past history, what Russia is doing to Ukraine and Finland’s generally high war readiness via universal conscription… every inch of Finnish territory Russia takes would likely be paid in blood (not that Putin cares of course).

[Crazy_Vasey]

I don't think things that happened a hundred years ago are a particularly good guideline to what would happen today. The early days of the Second World War were very poorly executed by Britain and France and everyone involved paid a very serious price for that in the end.

But anyway, the EU has mutual defence clauses written into its treaties, and it would genuinely break the union if they left a member to suffer Russian aggression alone. What's the point of an alliance that leaves you to swing, right? The UK's involvement is, imo, largely symbolic and just serves as a chivvy to the EU's less enthusiastic members and more importantly for the people inking these deals it's a way for Boris to get some desperately needed good press. He's really only good for hot air and this is a time where that stuff is actually appreciated by a lot of people.

[Ralin]

Isn't Finland's military and national defense heavily planned around the specific goal of fighting off a Russian invasion and making it as painful as possible if they can't?

[Lord Revan]

Isn't Finland's military and national defense heavily planned around the specific goal of fighting off a Russian invasion and making it as painful as possible if they can't?

Well who else would we fight Sweden hasn't been in major wars since the 19th century, we barely got a border with Norway and it's up north anyway far from anything vital for either country, Estonia is far too small and Germany and rest of Western Europe is too far, which pretty much leaves the only realistic threat to be Russia.

That said part of that plan is to make sure we don't underestimate said threat either. We know perfectly well that Russia (and before that the Soviet Union) can overwhelm us with sheer numbers (there's a fairly common joke here that Russia has more soldiers on their side of the border then Finland has people in total) however such brute force tactics are extremely expensive against a prepared opponents and not just in manpower all the equipment lost needs to be paid some way as well.

In essence (and bare in mind I never made it past private during my service so all I know is public knowledge) you defense strategy is make the Russian HQ look at cost of annexing Finland, then look at gains they would get from that and after that look at what they would gain from a free and independent Finland and after they've done all that have them go "fuck this invading them is not worth the cost".

[Lord Revan]

If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.

Well one can't rely on the Russian performance staying as bad as it is currently, to do so would be at best unwise.

Russia has enough manpower that they could eventually overwhelm Finland via sheer numbers… or if all else fails use WMDs.

That being said, given past history, what Russia is doing to Ukraine and Finland’s generally high war readiness via universal conscription… every inch of Finnish territory Russia takes would likely be paid in blood (not that Putin cares of course).

Well as I said earlier it's not just blood that needs to be paid, all the wrecked tanks, planes, ships and rifles need to be replaced and those aren't gonna be cheap and when the Russian elite finds that thanks to the war their wallets have more moths then rubles they're gonna be upset.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Mariupol finally fell.

More than 260 Ukrainian fighters, including those badly wounded, have been evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and taken to areas under Russia's control.

Branded "heroes of our time" by the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, scores of troops have been trapped in the bombed remains of the giant plant for 82 days.

Azovstal served as the last stronghold of resistance in the shattered port city.

Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Anna Malyar said that on Monday, 53 seriously wounded fighters were taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk.

An additional 211 fighters were evacuated to Olenivka through a humanitarian corridor and an exchange would be worked out for their return home, she said, adding up to 264 fighters in total.

However, the Ukrainian military reports Russian troops kept up their blockade of the plant on Tuesday.

The army’s General Staff said in a post on its official Facebook profile that “in Mariupol, the enemy concentrated its main efforts on blocking our units in the area of the Azovstal plant.”

Ukrainian authorities did not disclose the number of fighters who remain in the steel mill.

Those who have been evacuated will be interrogated, Russia’s main federal investigative body has said, as part of its probe into alleged “crimes by the Ukrainian regime against the civilian population” in Ukraine’s industrial east.

Russia’s Investigative Committee said in a Telegram post that “Russian investigators will identify the nationalists (and) test whether they have been involved in crimes committed against the civilian population.

"The information obtained during interrogations will be compared with other data available in records pertaining to criminal cases.”

It did not provide any additional information regarding the location or legal status of the Ukrainian fighters.

Ludmila’s son has been underneath the steel works, where he has had his leg amputated. They’ve had “no food, no water, no medicine”, she said.

Ludmila said she wishes there could be a guarantee of her son's safety.
She’s a bit calmer now because she hopes he was one of those on the evacuation buses but is still fearful as the fighters have been taken to areas under Russia's control. “But still I just wish there was someone who could guarantee his safety,” she told ITV News.

“So they won’t go missing, so nothing will happen to them.”

Lily Stupina, whose childhood sweetheart and husband is in there too, said they have lost around “20 or 30 kilograms.”

“We have maybe a kind of hope, a little kind of hope,” she said.

“But we don’t trust Russia at all. We don’t know what to feel, how to feel and what to think.”

Why is the evacuation a major milestone?

Aside from the steel mill, the besieged city of Mariupol is under complete Russian control.

The full capture of Azovstal would be significant for Russia, as it would give Moscow its biggest victory of the war yet and could help free up forces for offensive action elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, a key focus of Russia's following a series of setbacks

Russia called the operation a mass surrender. The Ukrainians avoided using that word, but said the garrison had completed its mission.

The commander of the Azov Regiment, which led the defence of the plant, said the "mission" had ended with as many lives saved as possible.
“Absolutely safe plans and operations don’t exist during war,” Lieutenant Colonel Denis Prokopenko said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the evacuation to separatist-controlled territory was done to save the lives of the fighters who have spent weeks underground. He added that the “heavily wounded” were getting medical help.
“Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes to be alive. It’s our principle,” Mr Zelenskyy said.

"The work continues to bring the guys home and it requires delicacy and time."

After nightfall on Monday, several buses pulled away from the steel mill accompanied by Russian military vehicles. There was no immediate word on whether the wounded would be considered prisoners of war.

Oleksandr Danylyuk, a Ukrainian former national security chief and finance minister, told the BBC those evacuated should be swapped for Russian prisoners.

However, Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, said there are “war criminals” among the plant defenders and they should tried, rather than exchanged.

Mariupol has seen some of the worst fighting since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, with hundreds of civilians only recently finding safety and many others dying.

I would be amazed if any of the captured Ukrainians are seen alive again- based on Russia's slaughter of civilians they're going to kill every last one of them.

[Eternal_Freedom]

Something about that article really jumped out at me as ultimate proof that this is the 2020's: "The army’s General Staff said in a post on its official Facebook profile" - the fact that an army's General Staff has an official Facebook profile is just surreal.

[Broomstick]

I've been living the future so long (in comparison to the world I grew up in) that that sort of sureality no longer generates much reaction in me. But yes, very 2020's.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

I mean, quite a few of the old SciFi shows had us having FTL by this point, and no I'm not talking about those made in the Cold War.

Still, it's surreal that some of the plots of video games are unfolding before our eyes. We've got reports of the Ghost of Kyiv flying around who acted like an Ace Combat protagonist (seriously, a single plane and a single pilot going around, stopping an invasion, that sounds like a good portion of the first level of many an Ace Combat game) for a while! The Russians acting like their CoD selves in the Modern Warfare series...

... yeah, we're not going to entirely diss fictional depictions ever again.

[LadyTevar]

I mean, quite a few of the old SciFi shows had us having FTL by this point, and no I'm not talking about those made in the Cold War.

Still, it's surreal that some of the plots of video games are unfolding before our eyes. We've got reports of the Ghost of Kyiv flying around who acted like an Ace Combat protagonist (seriously, a single plane and a single pilot going around, stopping an invasion, that sounds like a good portion of the first level of many an Ace Combat game) for a while! The Russians acting like their CoD selves in the Modern Warfare series...

... yeah, we're not going to entirely diss fictional depictions ever again.

Honey, we've been living with ShadowRun tech for decades. "Slot your cred", but it's not a stick, it's your Visa/Mastercard/Whatever card so you don't carry cash. "Underground Virtual Actors Influencing the Masses"? See YouTube, TikTok, etc. Hell, for a time we had virtual reality with Second Life going, especially if you had a VR Helmet. Phone/Computers small enough to wear on your wrists?

All I need now is the "Leonization Treatment" (after Ponce de Leon). Roll my physical age back by 30years! Hell, roll it back 35, make me a teenager again!

[LadyTevar]

In other news: Russia made good on one threat:

RUSSIA HALTS GAS FLOW TO FINLAND

Russia is halting its supply of natural gas to Finland, the Finnish state-owned energy firm Gasum says.

Finland has been refusing to pay for its supplies in roubles. But it also follows an announcement that Finland will apply for Nato membership.

Gasum said the move was "regrettable" but said there would be no disruption to customers.

Despite the Ukraine conflict, Russia continues to supply gas to many European countries.

After Western powers sanctioned Russia over the war, Russia said "unfriendly" countries must pay for gas using the Russian currency, a move the EU considers blackmail.

Reliance on Russian energy is a contributing factor in the cost-of-living crisis faced by many consumers.

Finland imports most of its gas from Russia but gas accounts for less than a tenth of the country's energy consumption.

"It is highly regrettable that natural gas supplies under our supply contract will now be halted," said Gasum CEO Mika Wiljanen.

"However, we have been carefully preparing for this situation and provided that there will be no disruptions in the gas transmission network, we will be able to supply all our customers with gas in the coming months," he added.

Asked about the matter, a Kremlin spokesman said "it is obvious that nobody is going to deliver anything for free".

On Sunday, Russia also cut electricity supplies to Finland. It had threatened retaliation should Finland apply to join Nato.

In a separate development, Russia's state-owned oil company Rosneft said on Friday that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder had informed them he would no longer serve on their board.

Mr Schröder has faced increasing public outrage over the lucrative role. He has refused to criticise Russia's President Vladimir Putin over the conflict, who he counts as a personal friend.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Honey, we've been living with ShadowRun tech for decades. "Slot your cred", but it's not a stick, it's your Visa/Mastercard/Whatever card so you don't carry cash. "Underground Virtual Actors Influencing the Masses"? See YouTube, TikTok, etc. Hell, for a time we had virtual reality with Second Life going, especially if you had a VR Helmet. Phone/Computers small enough to wear on your wrists?

All I need now is the "Leonization Treatment" (after Ponce de Leon). Roll my physical age back by 30years! Hell, roll it back 35, make me a teenager again!

More like a mix of fiction at this point, we've got various shades of SciFi here, some cyberpunk there, and the really big ones are tabletop RPGs like Transhuman Space (or, more specifically, the memetics addon). Hell, we've got some serious Battletech in our metallurgy department over the last few years... I mean back in 2016, we discovered what amounts to be EndoSteel (tm) v0.1...

In other news: Russia made good on one threat:

RUSSIA HALTS GAS FLOW TO FINLAND

Not surprising, as going straight to nukes would get Putin's ass killed rather quickly... though to be honest, Putin is acting more and more like Makarov these days...

[Vendetta]

If Finland has any more soldiers like Simo Häyhä I doubt Russia could defeat Finland, especially in light of their poor performance in Ukraine.

Well one can't rely on the Russian performance staying as bad as it is currently, to do so would be at best unwise.

Russia has enough manpower that they could eventually overwhelm Finland via sheer numbers… or if all else fails use WMDs.

That being said, given past history, what Russia is doing to Ukraine and Finland’s generally high war readiness via universal conscription… every inch of Finnish territory Russia takes would likely be paid in blood (not that Putin cares of course).

People would have said the same of Ukraine three months ago.

The idea that Russia just has this vast quantity of manpower that they could activate and deploy may well be a drastic overstatement of reality. Russia doesn't really have a formal reserve and doesn't have a planned method of calling up former contract soldiers whose contracts are over. Their conscripts aren't trained well enough for any kind of operation outside Russia (because conscript service is pretty much only for people too poor or not connected enough to be able to get out of it), and it's looking like a lot of their "reserve" equipment is simply not reasonably activatable.

And even if they did have those things, they don't have the logistics to get them into operation even in Ukraine, to which they have a lot better logistic connections to than Finland.

If anything, right now, we can expect Russia's performance to get worse because they've been taking losses in plum regiments and of modern equipment (and that equipment is somewhat harder than expected to replace, IIRC it was 3rd Tank Guards which found when they needed them that 9 of their 10 ready reserve tanks had no engines in, those having disappeared to grift at some unspecified point.

[Ralin]

Their conscripts aren't trained well enough for any kind of operation outside Russia (because conscript service is pretty much only for people too poor or not connected enough to be able to get out of it),

I believe it was mentioned upthread that Russia has some fairly restrictive laws about deploying conscripts in combat. Obviously that could change, but those laws wouldn't exist if there hadn't been a perceived need for them.

[Lord Revan]

Well I'm pretty sure there is some provision in the Russian laws that allows Putin send troops where ever he wishes in what ever numbers he wants, should there be a formal state of war and full war time mobilization.

However a full war time mobilization (which to my knowledge hasn't happened in Russia/Soviet Union since WW2) makes pretty much impossible to pretend this isn't a big deal or isn't happening.

So yes Russia technically could have the potential to simply throw enough troops in either Ukraine or Finland to simply overwhelm them by sheer numbers but it's not potential that's easy to access and then there's the that Putin could simply nuke either of those (granted "just nuke them" comes with a downside so big that so far even Putin hasn't been quite that crazy).

Also we should remember that Ukraine has almost 10 times the population Finland has (and thus most likely a larger military as well) with Ukraine's pre-war Population being at around 42 million and Finland current population being 5.6 million or so.

There's a reason why we Finns joke there's more Russian Troopers at Border then Finland has people, it's because there's not that many of us and there's a lot of Russians.

[His Divine Shadow]

In other news: Russia made good on one threat:

RUSSIA HALTS GAS FLOW TO FINLAND

It's a complete yawn for us, we don't really use gas for anything at all here except for the hank hills. I've always felt it was weird how much other countries rely on gas for heating homes and cooking, and that some places have gas pipes going into houses. What an alien concept.

[Broomstick]

So how does Finland do most of its home heating?

Gas became prominent in part because it was available. Certainly, back in the early 20th Century when the US was a leading producer and exporter of petroleum products with natural gas a byproduct of that industry. A variation called "town gas" was a byproduct of coke ovens used by steel mills. So really, natural gas, at least in the US, was originally making use of industrial trash for heating and lighting.

Installation of new gas lines in residential areas is becoming less and less common in the US.

My mother's childhood home had no electricity - heating was done by coal and lighting was gas. Growing up the homes I lived in had electric lights but the heating, cooking, and the clothes dryer all ran on gas. Now I still have electric lights but my stove is electric. The furnace and the clothes dryer are still gas. I expect less and less gas in my home appliances in the future.