Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Jub]

Poland is beside the Ukraine.
Move them close to the Ukraine, fuel them up, and let the Ukraines come across the border to fly them back.
Or, fly them to the Ukraine, and the pilots either stay to help defend Ukraine, or head back home.

I'm pretty sure that armed Polish jets flying into Ukraine would be a bad idea so, based on what analysts are saying, you'd need to fly them unarmed and then ship in munitions via another route. This could work, but it could also turn into a turkey shoot if Russia decides to commit to stopping these jets. Everything points to it not being as easy as people are thinking it might be.

[Batman]

How is flying in the planes unarmed and shipping in their weapons seperately going to be any less provocative?

[bilateralrope]

I am beginning to think the purpose of these is to cause a leak that drifts over Russia, thereby providing "proof" that Ukraine had nuclear weapons, or used them on people, and now the poor, poor Russians are suffering so efforts to destroy the despots much be increased...

If Putin didn't mind the army going from merely demoralised to flat-out mutinous when word got about, which it would eventually. Assuming the order was obeyed in the first place, because artillerymen of all frontline troops would know exactly what direction the prevailing winds were blowing and what that would mean for their own country if they scored a bullseye.

Then again, if Putin was still making good cost-benefit calculations then we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.

What if the leak comes from poor maintenance instead of shelling ?

Russia-Ukraine war: World atomic energy authority concerned by changes at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

Russian forces that seized Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have now placed staff running the facility under their command and restricted communications with the outside world, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Sunday.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said it was "extremely concerned" about developments at Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, citing information from Ukraine's nuclear regulator.

"Ukraine reports that any action of plant management - including measures related to the technical operation of the six reactor units - requires prior approval by the Russian commander," the IAEA said in a statement.

"In a second serious development, Ukraine has reported that the Russian forces at the site have switched off some mobile networks and the internet so that reliable information from the site cannot be obtained through the normal channels of communication," it added.

Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces had seized control of Zaporizhzhia on Friday after setting an adjacent training facility on fire. Russia's defence ministry blamed the attack on Ukrainian saboteurs, calling it a "monstrous provocation".

The fire was quickly extinguished and there was no damage to reactors or release of radioactive material but the incident raised concerns about the potentially catastrophic consequences should the conflict damage one of the country's four operating nuclear power plants.

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi voiced his worries over the information received from Ukrainian officials about Russian troops placing staff under their command.

"In order to be able to operate the plant safely and securely, management and staff must be allowed to carry out their vital duties in stable conditions without undue external interference or pressure," he said.

CHERNOBYL CONCERNS

The IAEA also expressed concern about developments at another Ukrainian site seized by Russia, the spent-fuel and radioactive waste facilities at Chernobyl, next to the now defunct power plant where the world's worst nuclear accident happened in 1986.

More than 200 people there, both technical staff and guards, have not left since Feb. 23, the day before it was seized, the IAEA said, despite the U.N. agency's calls for the technical staff to be rotated out on safety grounds.

The Ukrainian regulator said it was "facing problems communicating with personnel" at Chernobyl, said the IAEA, adding that communication was only possible via email.

Reuters

[Jub]

How is flying in the planes unarmed and shipping in their weapons seperately going to be any less provocative?

It might not be, but I suspect that it will be a term attached to sending planes over if they do get sent. Nobody wants to give Russia an excuse to point fingers and say that a NATO or EU country has crossed the line. Would unarmed jets be under that line? I can't say, but it seems like the world's support for Ukraine is as low-key and deniable as possible.

I could be wrong, but as I've said, I don't see many credible sources who think fighter jets to Ukraine are all that plausible and it's not just an issue of finding somebody willing to send jets their way.

-----

Shep, what are your thoughts on the plausibility of Polish jets ending up being shipped to Ukrainian airbases? You're probably the most tuned into that side of things of anybody here.

[Zaune]

What if the leak comes from poor maintenance instead of shelling?

If the upper echelons of the Russian chain of command is still mostly made up of rational actors then it won't come to that, because if big chunks of the Ukraine end up too radioactive to be useful for anything except wildlife preserves and slighly ghoulish adventure tourism experiences then they'll have Sweet Fanny Adams to show for waging war on the place. It's likely that they're planning to have their own technicians come in and put the plant through the shutdown process rather than ordering the Ukranian staff to do it and risking them deliberately trashing the turbines.

[Sidewinder]

The US is working on giving Polish planes to Ukraine.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/u ... ne-2543011
Maybe read the news?

Did you read what you linked? Poland is saying they won't supply planes and the US has nothing to give Poland as replacements if they were to send them. The idea of getting fighters to Ukraine is a pipe dream and many analysts are question the logistics of it even if there were planes enough for such a plan.

It's considered enough of a possibility that the US secretary of state is still working on making it happen. The whole point is to try and get Poland to change their mind.

Poland hasn't changed its mind yet. From the following The War Zone article:

Poland Still Isn't Interested In Transferring Its MiG-29s To Ukraine

The U.S. is actively pushing for the transfer but Poland still says it won't give its MiG-29s to Ukraine.

BY STETSON PAYNE AND TYLER ROGOWAY
MARCH 6, 2022

Days after a European Union-announced plan to supply Ukraine with fighter jets fell through upon statements from Polish, Slovakian and Bulgarian defense officials, it appears the U.S. government is still encouraging a transfer of jets to Ukraine despite Russian warnings.

<Snip.>

Despite Secretary Blinken’s endorsement on Sunday morning, the Polish government is swiftly labeling any claims that Poland has or will provide its MiGs to Ukraine as “fake news.” The Chancellery of the Polish Prime Minister’s Twitter account has habitually replied to claims with a quote tweet from the Polish Armed Force emphasizing Polish MiG-29s are not in Ukraine and stating explicitly:

Poland won't send its fighter jets to #Ukraine as well as allow to use its airports. We significantly help in many other areas.

Apart from the need to backfill Poland's fighter inventory if their roughly 28 MiG-29s go to Ukraine, there’s the incredibly real problem of Russia considering such a move as active participation in the war by a NATO country.

NATO Article 5 being what it is, the threat of escalation beyond Ukraine is real. If the Russian government made good on its declaration and attacked Poland in some manner, even via a cyberattack, things could quickly turn into a larger war between Russia and NATO. That likely played no small part in the original rejection of the E.U. fighter transfer plan by the relevant NATO members last week.

Still, Secretary Blinken’s statements on the Sunday morning news circuit could indicate a split between how badly the U.S. government wants to reinforce Ukraine’s air combat capabilities and how much NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ countries are willing to risk doing it. These countries certainly have aircraft suitable for transfer, but independent of incurring a Russian response in the short term, they could also be wary of giving away a large chunk of their air power when they might need them to deter Russia or even for a potential conflict with Russia. In fact, so outrageous were the claims by major media outlets and some Ukrainian officials early in the week in regards to how many aircraft would be donated that some air arms would have been left with no fighters at all for their own defense.

<Snip.>

Given the Russian declaration that would seemingly rule out flying new jets into Ukraine directly, it appears the overt transfer of fighter aircraft could become a ‘red line’ red line for Russia in terms of potential escalation.

<Snip.>

But how does one get potentially several dozen MiGs over the border without being detected or even flying them at all, and do so covertly enough that it does not invite a widening of the conflict? Partially disassembling them and trucking them in is a possibility, but, then again, the sudden appearance of new MiG fighters in Ukraine and the disappearance of them from Poland certainly wouldn’t go unrecognized by Russia.

With all this in mind, it still seems unlikely that Poland will hand over its full MiG-29 fleet to Kyiv, at least at this time and at the scale currently being discussed. Additionally, even if it decided to do it today, there could be major timeline and logistics obstacles. NATO equipment would likely have to get removed from the aircraft for one. Then the aforementioned issue of just getting them into the country is becoming more tumultuous a proposition with each passing day. This, along with the fact that western allies claim that Ukraine’s air defense capabilities remain remarkably intact, and the reality that the Russian air threat has not dictated the course of the war, makes providing a couple of dozen old MiGs to Ukraine less of a strategic imperative than other initiatives aimed at supporting the country’s ability to whether Kremlin’s military onslaught.

I wonder if anyone realizes the current war isn't just isolating Russia, it's also isolating the US, as multiple nations view Ukraine as yet another proxy in the Second Cold War, and are deciding, "It's none of my business."

[ray245]

There's talks that Poland wants F 35 in exchange. So not giving up their fighters easily could be a bargaining chip on Poland's part.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/0 ... e-00014424

[Zaune]

Not a particularly unreasonable request, given that if the Ukraine doesn't hold out they're going to have the Union of Soviet Putinist Republics on their border.

[Broomstick]

I am beginning to think the purpose of these is to cause a leak that drifts over Russia, thereby providing "proof" that Ukraine had nuclear weapons, or used them on people, and now the poor, poor Russians are suffering so efforts to destroy the despots much be increased...

If Putin didn't mind the army going from merely demoralised to flat-out mutinous when word got about, which it would eventually. Assuming the order was obeyed in the first place, because artillerymen of all frontline troops would know exactly what direction the prevailing winds were blowing and what that would mean for their own country if they scored a bullseye.

Then again, if Putin was still making good cost-benefit calculations then we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.

I would find your argument more compelling if we had not already seen two nuclear facilities fired upon. One is an accident, two is "hmmm....", and three is...?

What if the leak comes from poor maintenance instead of shelling ?

That's called sabotage under the circumstances described by your link. And the results may be quite similar.

Irradiating big chunks of one of the most productive agricultural regions on the planet would be worse than having "Sweet Fanny Adams" to show for an invasion. We're most likely going to see what happens when that piece of the food puzzle gets taken out of production this year, making that permanent has global ramifications. Now just Ukraine - any significant leak puts Russia's farmland at risk, too.

Or maybe that's the plan - fuck up some Russian farmland then use that as an excuse to demand the most fertile regions of Ukraine as compensation. Yet another claim on someone else's land.

[Broomstick]

I wonder if anyone realizes the current war isn't just isolating Russia, it's also isolating the US, as multiple nations view Ukraine as yet another proxy in the Second Cold War, and are deciding, "It's none of my business."

I don't blame any nation for sitting this out. However, there are a number of nations, and not just in Europe, who are not isolating the US and even participating in aid for Ukraine. Russia has.... what?... Syria, North Korea, Eritrea, and ??? on their side. The US still has more allies.

That said - an isolated US is going to be in a better position than an isolated Russia at this point. Also, there's a difference between "we're not getting involved" and "we're cutting all ties, including economic ones".

[Ralin]

I don't blame any nation for sitting this out. However, there are a number of nations, and not just in Europe, who are not isolating the US and even participating in aid for Ukraine. Russia has.... what?... Syria, North Korea, Eritrea, and ??? on their side. The US still has more allies.

That said - an isolated US is going to be in a better position than an isolated Russia at this point. Also, there's a difference between "we're not getting involved" and "we're cutting all ties, including economic ones".

China.

Allies in this case mostly means staying neutral and making general calls for peace and negotiation. But that's a pretty big trading partner to not be locked out of when your actual enemies are focusing on economic sanctions.

[Zaune]

I would find your argument more compelling if we had not already seen two nuclear facilities fired upon. One is an accident, two is "hmmm....", and three is...?

I am choosing to credit the Russian military leadership with at least enough grasp of consequences to realise what a stupid idea it would be to intentionally shoot the lid off a reactor vessel, because if they're batshit insane enough to do that then it's only a matter of time before someone says, "Oh, what the hell, we've already come this far so why not?" and authorises using either a tactical nuclear warhead or chemical weapons.

I'm not sure that isn't wishful thinking, but I'll take any excuse to put off seeing if I can bend far enough to kiss my arse goodbye.

[ray245]

Not a particularly unreasonable request, given that if the Ukraine doesn't hold out they're going to have the Union of Soviet Putinist Republics on their border.

Exactly. Which is probably why Poland aren't going to give up their MiGs easily. Officially, it helps to say no to the request, because it allows plausible deniability ( Poland aren't going to advertise they are giving Ukraine planes so openly), and secondly, it makes the US having to offer something to Poland.

Which is why Blinken are saying they are working on it rather than saying they are giving up on the idea of giving planes to Ukraine.

[Col. Crackpot]

I would find your argument more compelling if we had not already seen two nuclear facilities fired upon. One is an accident, two is "hmmm....", and three is...?

I am choosing to credit the Russian military leadership with at least enough grasp of consequences to realise what a stupid idea it would be to intentionally shoot the lid off a reactor vessel, because if they're batshit insane enough to do that then it's only a matter of time before someone says, "Oh, what the hell, we've already come this far so why not?" and authorises using either a tactical nuclear warhead or chemical weapons.

I'm not sure that isn't wishful thinking, but I'll take any excuse to put off seeing if I can bend far enough to kiss my arse goodbye.

My friend after what I have seen over the past week and and a half I would not credit the Russian military leadership with any ability to grasp anything but the flaccid appendage between their legs. Even then I’d want sources cited.

They have lost significantly more soldiers in a week and a half than the US did in TWENTY YEARS of Iraq and Afghanistan combined, they have had twenty miles of tanks stuck on a road for a week, fought The Battle Of Chernobyl (which sounds like it should be the title of a fucking Rage Against The Machine song) and then opened fire on two other nuclear power plants, dropped cluster munitions on apartment blocks.. and on and on. And don’t get me started on their half assed attempts at propaganda.

So no. After the comic book villain level of malignant idiocy I have no faith in them whatsoever to know that they shouldn’t cause a nuclear disaster and neither should you.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-eur ... type=share

BBC: per the The Red Cross, Russia mined the civilian evacuation routes.

Thus answering the age old question, How many war crimes can you fit in one sentence.

Unfathomable evil.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Apparently Russia will only open 'corridors' for civilians headed for Russia itself, or Belarus.

[Broomstick]

I don't blame any nation for sitting this out. However, there are a number of nations, and not just in Europe, who are not isolating the US and even participating in aid for Ukraine. Russia has.... what?... Syria, North Korea, Eritrea, and ??? on their side. The US still has more allies.

That said - an isolated US is going to be in a better position than an isolated Russia at this point. Also, there's a difference between "we're not getting involved" and "we're cutting all ties, including economic ones".

China.

Allies in this case mostly means staying neutral and making general calls for peace and negotiation. But that's a pretty big trading partner to not be locked out of when your actual enemies are focusing on economic sanctions.

If they only trading partner left for Russia is China then China will own Russia. I don't think the Russians will be happy with that. China will, of course. China might even be hoping for it.

Apparently China is replacing Visa and Mastercard (which have pulled out of Russia) with a card of their own. Absolutely if they can take advantage of this they will.

[Ralin]

If they only trading partner left for Russia is China then China will own Russia. I don't think the Russians will be happy with that. China will, of course. China might even be hoping for it.

That seems a wee bit melodramatic.

Apparently China is replacing Visa and Mastercard (which have pulled out of Russia) with a card of their own. Absolutely if they can take advantage of this they will.

Unionpay? Suppose that makes sense.

Kinda hard to see how they could take advantage of it more than the US government freezing enemies out of the international banking system and seizing money they have in foreign accounts. Gotta figure that's about balanced at least, and the Chinese government isn't starting from the position the US is in with SWIFT so I figure they have more incentive not to abuse it.

[Broomstick]

Hey, it's economic warfare. No bullets, but there is conflict and it can cause financial hurt, including to innocent bystanders (like the average Russian experiencing a Great Depression or Hyperinflation or whatever is happening over there).

[bilateralrope]

Kinda hard to see how they could take advantage of it more than the US government freezing enemies out of the international banking system and seizing money they have in foreign accounts. Gotta figure that's about balanced at least, and the Chinese government isn't starting from the position the US is in with SWIFT so I figure they have more incentive not to abuse it.

China's advantage is long term. If they can get themselves established in the Russian economy now, they will still be there after sanctions lift.

[Ralin]

China's advantage is long term. If they can get themselves established in the Russian economy now, they will still be there after sanctions lift.

Yes, stands to reason.

[bilateralrope]

Another thought is that, right now, Visa and Mastercard have a major advantage over other credit cards because they are taken by a lot of places that won't accept any other credit card. Making them the only options for a lot of people, including me, no matter how much cheaper the fees/interest on other cards might be.

But if China gets their card to become the dominant card in Russia after sanctions lift, that's going to force companies to accept it. Maybe giving them a way into the CC market worldwide.

[Broomstick]

Good point. For sure, China will try to take advantage of the situation to the own benefit.

[bilateralrope]

Bread, porridge, guns, and radiation: Chernobyl workers still on the clock, 12 days after invasion

21:35, Mar 08 2022

Bread, porridge, guns and the spectre of radiation.

The reality of what has been unfolding at the Chernobyl nuclear plant is becoming clearer, 12 days after invading Russian forces captured it.

More than 100 workers at the plant in Ukraine are effectively still on the clock, sleeping at the site they went to work at as normal almost two weeks ago, BBC reports.

The workers, who are surrounded by armed Russian guards, remain stuck inside the plant they have to keep running smoothly, or risk minor to moderate nuclear fallout.

The atmosphere among the workers, and another 200 captured Ukrainians who were guarding the site was said to be “calm”, but conditions inside are “difficult”, with food and medicine limited, BBC reports.

Chernobyl, the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster in 1986, was never fully abandoned because even though it is no longer a working power station it still requires constant management from more than 1000 employees, who usually work in shifts.

Russian troops swarmed into the plant's exclusion zone on day one of the invasion. It claimed to have secured the site jointly with the Ukrainian national guard, but Ukraine has disputed this and said Russian troops have full control.

A relative of one of the workers stuck at the plant told the BBC that the Russian side was willing to let them swap shifts, but that they could not guarantee their safety on the journey home, nor of workers travelling to take their place.

“The situation is complicated and tense,” Yuri Fomichev, Mayor of nearby town Slavutych, told the BBC. “It is difficult for them morally, psychologically and physically.”

Fomichev said workers were limiting themselves to one meal a day - mainly bread and porridge – prepared by cooks who are also stuck inside the plant as they had no idea how long they would be there.

Temporary sleeping quarters have been created with workers sleeping on camp stretchers, tables, or on the floor.

Russia has offered food, but it has been turned down as Ukraine believes that it was a propaganda stunt.

“Under these conditions, the workers' concentration gets worse and worse, and that is a threat to safety,” Fomichev said.

Experts say radiation levels have been known to spike at Chernobyl, including a brief spike on the day of the invasion, but the risk of nuclear catastrophe from it is low, even if workers were to abandon it.

Hopefully nothing goes wrong there.

[Col. Crackpot]

China's advantage is long term. If they can get themselves established in the Russian economy now, they will still be there after sanctions lift.

Yes, stands to reason.

The great irony in this whole mess is that in it’s quest to regain a client state, Russia itself may end up ruining itself and becoming a client state.