US government Shutdown

[Simon_Jester]

I submit that the shutdown is more of a disaster than you believe- it just hasn't inconvenienced you personally yet, or has not done so in ways you are aware enough to notice.

You probably also wouldn't notice a hurricane flattening a city on the other side of the country, if the media weren't going to tell you about it in detail. That doesn't mean it isn't a problem.

[Patroklos]

I am an active duty military comptroller at a command that is at least 50% GSs who disperses hundreds of millions of dollars for shipyard repairs which are performed by civilians dependant on those contracts. I may have noticed something regarding government controls.

[bilateralrope]

Currently, US debt is considered literally the safest investment in the world. Seriously, if you asked any person who knows finance "What is the safest investment I can make?" they would say "US bonds". (or at least that was true previously, maybe they wouldn't say that today)

If we miss our interest payment, it would shake the foundations of the financial world. I'm not exaggerating or using hyperbole, I really can't stress enough the effects on world finances if US debt was no longer considered literally the safest place to park your money in the world.

That sounds like the kind of thing that would worry the rich people backing both parties.

[Covenant]

It does and it should. But this is a dangerous game of chicken they're playing here. Keeping the government shut down for that long is a huge fiasco for both sides, but hitting a default is a disaster. But this kind of hostage situation is toxic. It can't be allowed to succeed, but the Republicans can feel that the Democrats are holding the nation hostage too, by refusing to throw them a few bones. That's insanity, but they could think it, and it would convince them not to give up first.

There's not enough of a power differential here for this to have a natural conclusion outside of disaster, and it's unclear what the public thinks.

[bilateralrope]

I'm thinking that the rich backers will issue an ultimatum along the lines of "If the US defaults, anyone who blocked raising the debt ceiling will not see another cent in campaign contributions". Maybe they have already issued it.

Can the debt ceiling be raised without ending the shutdown ?

[Zwinmar]

I think that people do not understand what the long term effects of the Federal government shutting down means.
What is the worst case scenario after all? We go the way of the Balkans? It is conceivable, after all we do have idiots running rampant.

[Gaidin]

Can the debt ceiling be raised without ending the shutdown ?

If congress can pass a budget or CR or whatever term we want to use today and the President sign it, things that start as bills and end as laws, there is nothing stopping them from passing other bills and signing them into laws. Theoretically, they're the highest personnel in their branches of government, and you don't get more essential than them. In that sense, if they wanted to, they could go to SCOTUS and argue about the debt ceiling during the shutdown as well I'd bet. Congress just has the technicality of an amendment that keeps them getting paid.

[Simon_Jester]

I am an active duty military comptroller at a command that is at least 50% GSs who disperses hundreds of millions of dollars for shipyard repairs which are performed by civilians dependant on those contracts. I may have noticed something regarding government controls.

Ah. So, you are a nonrepresentative sample of the population; my apologies. I did not know.

That said, how long do you think this can go on without consequences? So far we've had one week of shutdown- what will the people you work with do if the shutdown proceeds for three weeks (about like last time) or (heaven forbid) four or even eight weeks?

[Purple]

I think that people do not understand what the long term effects of the Federal government shutting down means.
What is the worst case scenario after all? We go the way of the Balkans? It is conceivable, after all we do have idiots running rampant.

Is it really? I mean you do have some crazy right wingers. But I don't think that even the worst of them actually want to tear the union apart. Right?

[SirNitram]

I'm thinking that the rich backers will issue an ultimatum along the lines of "If the US defaults, anyone who blocked raising the debt ceiling will not see another cent in campaign contributions". Maybe they have already issued it.

Can the debt ceiling be raised without ending the shutdown ?

Yes. There are also options for Obama to raise the debt ceiling without Congress. Unfortunately, several violate laws, and one that doesn't is decried as ridiculous and silly.

[Zaune]

That said, how long do you think this can go on without consequences? So far we've had one week of shutdown- what will the people you work with do if the shutdown proceeds for three weeks (about like last time) or (heaven forbid) four or even eight weeks?

Well, that's easy to calculate theoretically. How many weeks could the average US worker last without a pay cheque before they lose their house or they can't afford to buy food? I bet someone's done a study on that, though my educated guess would be "not very long."

[Simon_Jester]

It's not quite that simple- even if the individual workers have plenty of savings, the things the federal government does are real and there are consequences if those things stop happening.

[Batman]

While that's true what I think Zaune was getting at was even the individual worker isn't going to last long under the circumstances, leave alone institutions that are dependent on federal money for their day-to-day operations.

[Broomstick]

That said, how long do you think this can go on without consequences? So far we've had one week of shutdown- what will the people you work with do if the shutdown proceeds for three weeks (about like last time) or (heaven forbid) four or even eight weeks?

Well, that's easy to calculate theoretically. How many weeks could the average US worker last without a pay cheque before they lose their house or they can't afford to buy food?

Last time I saw stats on that it was 2-4 weeks, but that was before the Great Recession kicked in and diminished a lot of peoples' resources.

[Zaune]

While that's true what I think Zaune was getting at was even the individual worker isn't going to last long under the circumstances, leave alone institutions that are dependent on federal money for their day-to-day operations.

Not quite, but I think the individual workers are going to feel the consequences first. Unless a nuclear power station whose annual safety inspection was postponed indefinitely comes down with an acute case of China Syndrome next week, I think the tipping point where the shutdown stops being merely bloody inconvenient and starts being directly responsible for injuries and property damage is likely to be when non-trivial numbers of federal employees start getting made homeless because they can't afford rent or mortgage payments, or caught shoplifting because they're not eligible for welfare and it's the only way to feed their kids.

[Dominus Atheos]

That said, how long do you think this can go on without consequences? So far we've had one week of shutdown- what will the people you work with do if the shutdown proceeds for three weeks (about like last time) or (heaven forbid) four or even eight weeks?

Well, that's easy to calculate theoretically. How many weeks could the average US worker last without a pay cheque before they lose their house or they can't afford to buy food?

Last time I saw stats on that it was 2-4 weeks, but that was before the Great Recession kicked in and diminished a lot of peoples' resources.

Yep. Zaune, I don't know if they have this saying in the UK or other countries, but it's called "living paycheck to paycheck" which literally means there are a lot of people who can go exactly 2 weeks without a paycheck.

[Zaune]

Yes. Yes, we do.

[gigabytelord]

I don't know if anyone's heard anything new recently but I ran over this info not to long ago and thought it might by important to the subject matter of this thread.

Government shutdown was planned (FOX new)

The Young Turks

From the LA Times.

Addicting info

NY Times

[KrauserKrauser]

All I know is that I hope that the Republicans get roasted in the mid terms. Sure, their ignorant base is loving this, hell they voted themin specifically for this, but the mindless middle won't be able to ignore this mich longer.

The Republicans can say all they want that this is Obama and the Dem's fault but none if them ever campaigned for a national office on a romise to shutdown the government as had a multitude of republicans. People are stupid, but most can recognize when they are being sold a pile of shit.

[Zwinmar]

I think that people do not understand what the long term effects of the Federal government shutting down means.
What is the worst case scenario after all? We go the way of the Balkans? It is conceivable, after all we do have idiots running rampant.

Is it really? I mean you do have some crazy right wingers. But I don't think that even the worst of them actually want to tear the union apart. Right?

Well except for nutjobs in Texas, and other areas, that want to secede which by its very nature is tearing the Union apart.

[eyl]

I'm thinking that the rich backers will issue an ultimatum along the lines of "If the US defaults, anyone who blocked raising the debt ceiling will not see another cent in campaign contributions". Maybe they have already issued it.

Relevant

[Broomstick]

energiewende, it's been several days and several pages since you were asked to either substantiate your claim that the US government is deliberately writing bad checks or concede your error. Which is it going to be?

[Purple]

I think that people do not understand what the long term effects of the Federal government shutting down means.
What is the worst case scenario after all? We go the way of the Balkans? It is conceivable, after all we do have idiots running rampant.

Is it really? I mean you do have some crazy right wingers. But I don't think that even the worst of them actually want to tear the union apart. Right?

Well except for nutjobs in Texas, and other areas, that want to secede which by its very nature is tearing the Union apart.

But even those have to just be a vocal minority, right? It can't be a serious political movement with any serious chance... right?

[Crossroads Inc.]

Yes and No.

there ARE 'serious' politicians in the US who have used "dog whistle" terms about seceding from the Union, but they have NO chance of doing anything with it.

The biggest problem with the right wingers is, what they are doing right now they Don't see as a "bad thing".
I posted a quote a while back, as well as ranted on about how the right wing WANTS to shut down the government because they think "The government" is this giant evil tax sucking monster. that 'America' will be better off without it. these same people also have no problem with flirting with defaulting on the US Debt, and again, some of them WANT to do it.
The problem is, when you ask "Do they want to tear the union apart" they don't see it that way. they think they are "Saving" America!

The irony of it all is that as they continue to do this sort of crap, the economy goes south, markets collapse, people loose jobs. And America is 'torn apart' Well, should it get that bad, they will never EVER admit that they caused any of it to happen.

THAT is the state of the right wing in America.

[Patroklos]

Gents, I don't think its unfair to say that should the US default on all of its debt this second, every cent, just for shits and giggles it is not going to lead to the Union falling apart. I am not sure how anyone is linking the one with the other.