Haiti collapse

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wautd
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Haiti collapse

Post by wautd »

Haiti always has been bad at the best of times, but it seems that these last few weeks to country is collapsing to total anarchy and gang warfare

Reuters
PORT-AU-PRINCE, March 22 (Reuters) - Almost half of Haiti's people are struggling to feed themselves as gang violence spreads across the country, with several areas close to famine, international organizations said on Friday.
Inflation and poor harvests have also helped push Haiti to its worst levels of food insecurity on record, they said.
"Rising hunger is fueling the security crisis that is shattering the country. We need urgent action now - waiting to respond at scale is not an option," Jean-Martin Bauer, the World Food Programme's Haiti director, said.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) - an organization which sets a scale used by the United Nations and governments to assess hunger - said in a report that about 4.97 million people out of a population of about 11.5 million were facing crisis or worse levels of food insecurity.
Eight areas were now assessed to be in an emergency phase - the worst level before famine, it said.
These include the Artibonite valley, Haiti's farming heartland, which has been badly hit by gangs expanding from the capital Port-au-Prince, rural parts of the Grand-Anse peninsula and neighborhoods of the capital such as the poor Cite Soleil district.

The Caribbean country has been gripped by violence since rival gangs unleashed a wave of attacks this month, including raids on police stations and the international airport. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands.
Regional leaders are trying to form a transitional council and Prime Minister Ariel Henry has promised to resign once it is set up. But he is currently stranded abroad, shut out of the country after making a visit to Kenya to discuss the deployment of an international security force. This has now been put on hold.

The WFP said Haiti was now suffering its worst levels of food insecurity on record, with many people resorting to desperate measures and taking on more debt as armed groups take over farmlands and steal crops.
The IPC report found only 5% of Haitians had received humanitarian food aid and the WFP said that operations were "woefully under-funded."
More than 30,000 people have fled violence and shortages in the capital in just two weeks this month, according to U.N. data, most of them people who had already lost their homes and were living in camps or with other families.

Authorities in the neighboring Dominican Republic, who have deported tens of thousands of Haitian migrants, have said they have not agreed to an air bridge announced by the U.N. to supply aid to Haiti, saying its air route is for evacuating foreigners.
Laurent Uwumuremyi, who heads aid group Mercy Corps' Haiti arm, said gangs now control nearly 90% of the capital with basic errands impossible, key infrastructure closed, shortages in basic supplies and hospitals on the brink of collapse.
"Even in areas like Petion-Ville, an upscale neighborhood that until recently was considered safe, the population has been barricaded indoors," he said. "If the situation deteriorates without any efforts to address the unfolding humanitarian crisis, Port-au-Prince will soon find itself completely overwhelmed."

BBC
Gangs tighten grip as Haiti spirals to collapse

Haiti is fast descending into anarchy.

Over the weekend, the violence in the capital Port-au-Prince ramped up once again. Heavily armed gangs attacked the National Palace and set part of the Interior Ministry on fire with petrol bombs.

It comes after a sustained attack on the international airport, which remains closed to all flights - including one carrying Prime Minister Ariel Henry.

He tried to fly back to Haiti from the United States last week, but his plane was refused permission to land. He was then turned away from the neighbouring Dominican Republic too.

Mr Henry is now stuck in Puerto Rico, unable to set foot in the nation he ostensibly leads.

Among those who did manage to get into the stricken Caribbean nation, though, was a group of US military personnel.

Following a request from the US State Department, the Pentagon confirmed it had carried out an operation to, as it put it, "augment the security" of the US embassy in Port-au-Prince and airlift all non-essential staff to safety.

Soon after, the EU said it had evacuated all of its diplomats, fleeing a nation mired in violence and facing its biggest humanitarian crisis since the 2010 earthquake.

Millions of Haitians, however, simply don't have that luxury. They're trapped, no matter how bad things get.

The situation is dire at the State University of Haiti Hospital, known as the general hospital, in downtown Port-au-Prince. There is no sign of any medical staff at all.

A dead body, covered by a sheet and swarming with flies, lies in a bed next to patients waiting in vain for treatment.

Despite the overpowering stench, no-one has come to remove the body. It is rapidly decomposing in the Caribbean heat.

"There are no doctors, they all fled last week," said Philippe a patient who didn't want to give his real name.

"We can't go outside. We hear the explosions and gunfire. So, we must have courage and stay here, we can't go anywhere."

With no prime minister and a government in disarray, the gangs' power over the capital is near absolute.

They control more than 80% of Port-au-Prince and the country's most notorious gang leader, Jimmy "Barbecue" Chérizier has again told the prime minister to resign.

"If Ariel Henry doesn't step down and the international community continues to support him," he said last week, "they will lead us directly to a civil war which will end in genocide."

Meanwhile, the police, outnumbered and demoralised, are struggling to keep looters at bay. The Salomon police station in Port-au-Prince was attacked and burnt out, and charred police vehicles lie outside the still-smouldering building.

Nevertheless, even in the face of the total collapse of law and order, people must still venture out to make a living.

At a nearby market, several street hawkers told the BBC they had no other option but to leave their homes, even with gunmen roaming the streets.

"I have three kids, and I'm all they have - I'm their mother and their father," said Jocelyn, a market trader who also didn't want to give her real name.

So, I'm obliged to take to the streets. Yesterday gunmen came here and stole all our money. A lot of vendors lost all their money. But there's no way to stay at home when you have three mouths to feed."

"The anxiety is killing me when I'm in the street," echoed an older woman selling fruit. "I keep thinking what if I get shot dead? Who will take care of my children then? I have no family to support me."

To the west, in one of Haiti's nearest neighbours, Jamaica, the dignitaries, diplomats and heads of state of the Caricom regional group are gathering for an emergency summit.

The instability in Haiti is a problem for the entire Caribbean community, and for Washington too. The idea of a nation of some 11 million people being run by gangs is of huge concern, particularly the potential impact on outward migration during an election year in the US.

It's clear Caricom favours seeing Mr Henry resign as soon as possible, from outside of the country if necessary.

The Biden administration in the US has publicly said the unelected prime minister - who had promised to hold an election in February - should return to Haiti, but only in order to stand down and begin a transition to a new government.

Privately, though, US diplomats are increasingly aware that it might now be impossible for him to return, and that even attempting to do so could further destabilise Haiti.

A UN-backed plan for a Kenyan-led rapid reaction force to tackle the gangs is still far from becoming a reality.

To add to the lawlessness, a week ago, around 4,000 inmates escaped after the gangs attacked the main prison in Port-au-Prince.

Those prisoners are now back on the streets and bolstering the ranks of their gangs.

In the aftermath, the cell doors are now wide open, the facility is virtually abandoned and there are blood stains on the ground after gunmen overpowered the guards.

A prime minister unable to return, violent gangs in control of the capital and dead bodies piling up on the streets: Haiti is currently a nation about as close to a failed state as it's possible to be.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by Solauren »

Well, shit.

You have a gang leader telling the Prime Minister to resign, and possibly be able to cause it to happen.

Haiti needs direct military intervention at this point.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by LadyTevar »

Solauren wrote: 2024-03-27 01:03pm Well, shit.

You have a gang leader telling the Prime Minister to resign, and possibly be able to cause it to happen.

Haiti needs direct military intervention at this point.
From whom?
Dominican Republic?
USA?
NATO?

Who really wants to stick their foot into that wasp nest?
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by Solauren »

The UN stepped in as a result of the 2004 Haitian coup d'état.

This is no different conceptually.

Do I expect anything to happen?

Probably not.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by LadyTevar »

Solauren wrote: 2024-03-27 09:06pm The UN stepped in as a result of the 2004 Haitian coup d'état.

This is no different conceptually.

Do I expect anything to happen?

Probably not.
I don't remember the UN being much use during that 2004 mess. I could be wrong.
Either way, I do not see the UN going in with "peacekeepers" in any way that would not result in people getting killed.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by madd0c0t0r2 »

LadyTevar wrote: 2024-03-28 10:27am
Solauren wrote: 2024-03-27 09:06pm The UN stepped in as a result of the 2004 Haitian coup d'état.

This is no different conceptually.

Do I expect anything to happen?

Probably not.
I don't remember the UN being much use during that 2004 mess. I could be wrong.
Either way, I do not see the UN going in with "peacekeepers" in any way that would not result in people getting killed.
They did have a load of peacekeepers, which did kinda keep a lid on the worst violence. They also accidentally triggered a malaria outbreak, which was unhelpful, and trigged a child sex scandal too.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UN_chil ... l_in_Haiti

https://sites.bu.edu/pardeeatlas/advanc ... -failures/
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by Bedlam »

LadyTevar wrote: 2024-03-28 10:27am
Solauren wrote: 2024-03-27 09:06pm The UN stepped in as a result of the 2004 Haitian coup d'état.

This is no different conceptually.

Do I expect anything to happen?

Probably not.
I don't remember the UN being much use during that 2004 mess. I could be wrong.
Either way, I do not see the UN going in with "peacekeepers" in any way that would not result in people getting killed.
Whatever happens and whoever interferes people are going to die, the number and composition might not even vary all that much. It's one of the reason's no one wants to get involved there's little to gain and they don't want the blame for what happens to fall on them.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

The DR won't have any choice in the matter of getting involved if the violence spills over on to their side of the island, though I don't know how well-defended the border is. They do have a military though.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by Solauren »

Maybe the D.R should start shoring up their border defenses and patrols 'just in case' then.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by LadyTevar »

Solauren wrote: 2024-03-29 08:59am Maybe the D.R should start shoring up their border defenses and patrols 'just in case' then.
There was an article about DR denying entry to Haitian refugees, so they already may be upping patrols.
I was never sure how the island was split and how porous the border actually is. I know there's official crossings, but how many backroads are there?
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

LadyTevar wrote: 2024-03-29 09:23am
Solauren wrote: 2024-03-29 08:59am Maybe the D.R should start shoring up their border defenses and patrols 'just in case' then.
There was an article about DR denying entry to Haitian refugees, so they already may be upping patrols.
I was never sure how the island was split and how porous the border actually is. I know there's official crossings, but how many backroads are there?
I did some more reading, this describes the state of the border.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by Rogue 9 »

Last I heard, Kenya was planning to provide peacekeeping forces, though no timeline was set last I knew.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by LadyTevar »

I asked my brother his thoughts on the matter, as he'd been in Haiti in the late 80s.

His comment was blunt -- LET IT BURN. "Haiti is nothing on the world scale, they produce nothing that isn't done more and better elsewhere. Let it burn and then afterwards go in and loot the body"

Rather harsh, but hard to refute. What does Haiti produce besides cane sugar and rum?
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Re: Haiti collapse

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LadyTevar wrote: 2024-03-31 04:55pm I asked my brother his thoughts on the matter, as he'd been in Haiti in the late 80s.

His comment was blunt -- LET IT BURN. "Haiti is nothing on the world scale, they produce nothing that isn't done more and better elsewhere. Let it burn and then afterwards go in and loot the body"

Rather harsh, but hard to refute. What does Haiti produce besides cane sugar and rum?
According to Wikipedia...
Haiti is the world's leading producer of vetiver, a root plant used to make luxury perfumes, essential oils and fragrances, providing for half the world's supply.

Roughly 40–50% of Haitians work in the agricultural sector. However, according to soil surveys by the United States Department of Agriculture in the early 1980s, only 11.3 percent of the land was highly suitable for crops.

Haiti relies upon imports for half its food needs and 80% of its rice.

Haiti exports crops such as mangoes, cacao, coffee, papayas, mahogany nuts, spinach, and watercress.

Agricultural products constitute 6% of all exports.

In addition, local agricultural products include maize, beans, cassava, sweet potato, peanuts, pistachios, bananas, millet, pigeon peas, sugarcane, rice, sorghum, and wood.


====

In short, nothing important or affecting the world, and we have to feed them.

So, yeah.....
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Re: Haiti collapse

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The other issue with Haiti is that being so poor and being in the path of so many natural disasters means that no matter how good a leader is they'll fail to provide stability. So the people will inevitably feel as if any leadership that can exist there has failed them and the revolutionary spirit will rise again. It has been so stripped of anything of value and so unable to build anything else, like tourism, that it remains valueless except to those who would siphon off what little of value it has for themselves.

It is a failed state that I see no way to save.
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Re: Haiti collapse

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LadyTevar wrote: 2024-03-31 04:55pm Rather harsh, but hard to refute. What does Haiti produce besides cane sugar and rum?
A completely unacceptable amount of telling white slavers to get fucked. Backed up with violence.

Or are we just going to ignore the decades of post independence pariah state status they had to choke on?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti_Independence_Debt
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Re: Haiti collapse

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Ralin wrote: 2024-03-31 08:32pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2024-03-31 04:55pm Rather harsh, but hard to refute. What does Haiti produce besides cane sugar and rum?
A completely unacceptable amount of telling white slavers to get fucked. Backed up with violence.

Or are we just going to ignore the decades of post independence pariah state status they had to choke on?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti_Independence_Debt
No one is denying that the people of Haiti have had an extremely difficult time historically, or that they don't deserve better.

Unfortunately, you're going to have one hell of a time convincing the people that could give them better, to do so. ANything that large, economics plays a massive factor.

And really, Haiti has nothing to offer to be worth that kind of investment. Go through what has been attempted to help Haiti, and failed every time.

At this point, the best thing might be to evacuate anyone that asks to leave.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by 3-Body Problem »

Ralin wrote: 2024-03-31 08:32pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2024-03-31 04:55pm Rather harsh, but hard to refute. What does Haiti produce besides cane sugar and rum?
A completely unacceptable amount of telling white slavers to get fucked. Backed up with violence.

Or are we just going to ignore the decades of post independence pariah state status they had to choke on?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti_Independence_Debt
Yes, and...? History is shitty and theirs is worse than almost anybody's but nobody with any power is going to get guilt-tripped into doing what would be needed to fix things. The people there are too ready to revolt, there are no natural resources or industries for corporate "rebuilders" to see any value in stepping in and investing, and the only people who even want to run the place are tin-pot dictators who lack the self-awareness to see where their story ends. The situation is 100% fucked and it would take benevolence on a massive never before seen scale to change things.
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Re: Haiti collapse

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3-Body Problem wrote: 2024-04-01 01:13am
Ralin wrote: 2024-03-31 08:32pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2024-03-31 04:55pm Rather harsh, but hard to refute. What does Haiti produce besides cane sugar and rum?
A completely unacceptable amount of telling white slavers to get fucked. Backed up with violence.

Or are we just going to ignore the decades of post independence pariah state status they had to choke on?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti_Independence_Debt
Yes, and...? History is shitty and theirs is worse than almost anybody's but nobody with any power is going to get guilt-tripped into doing what would be needed to fix things. The people there are too ready to revolt, there are no natural resources or industries for corporate "rebuilders" to see any value in stepping in and investing, and the only people who even want to run the place are tin-pot dictators who lack the self-awareness to see where their story ends. The situation is 100% fucked and it would take benevolence on a massive never before seen scale to change things.
The situation, from what I'm seeing, would take another Invader coming in and completely taking over all levels of government, then brutally putting down the gangs

Considering putting down gangs is something that most countries have trouble doing on their own, even the US still has massive gang problems, this would lead to yet another dictator police state and Haiti would once again be fucked.

There's no way to play this game and win from the outside. Haiti's problems have to be solved from within.
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Re: Haiti collapse

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3-Body Problem wrote: 2024-03-31 06:44pm The other issue with Haiti is that being so poor and being in the path of so many natural disasters means that no matter how good a leader is they'll fail to provide stability. So the people will inevitably feel as if any leadership that can exist there has failed them and the revolutionary spirit will rise again.
Then please explain the much greater stability of the Dominican Republic which occupies half the exact same island.

Yes, Haiti is fucked and historically has been fucked - but saying that due to location it is impossible to have a stable government in that location is bullshit.

Not that I expect anything to be done for Haiti, not at this point in history where more and more nations are turning inward and getting quite selfish.

I feel compelled to state that I don't like any of this, think it's morally bankrupt, and disgusting. However, I have little to no power in this world and can't do a damn thing to fix this problem.
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Re: Haiti collapse

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With Haiti if you want to break the gangs quickly nothing short of a full military clean and screen operation of a ten mile wide sweeping column is going to do the job. We are talking about a door to door sweep of the entirety of Port-au-Prince. Nothing short of landing 70k troops in the harbor and sweep out across the city door to door until you hit the city limits and lock down the capital is going to do the job.

That is going to be a massive military undertaking and frankly no one has the stomach to do it because there will be casualties on both sides and your going to lose civilians and soldiers if the Gangs resist which they likely will since to preform that sweep with the least casualties you can't send it scouts and hellfire anything that shoots back your going to have to go building to building screens civilians and disarm them since you can't know who's in a gang and who's trying to defend themselves to best disarm everyone until you've swept the capital clear.

What I'm talking about is a best case for success defined as stability and order in the capital but at a rough guess without knowing the specifics on the ground (Which would make the troop count in one direction which is up) your going to suffer anywhere from dozens to low thousands of casualties with maybe three to four times that on the other side plus who knows how many civilians in the crossfire. This would be a WW2 level effort of city clearing, two soldiers per yard of front style across a ten mile wide city home to just shy of a million people. Oh and my count does not include support staff so triple that number.

No one is going to sign up for it, it's needed but no way in hell that any country is going to be willing to muster something half the size of the Iraq war even if it is in our back yard so to speak. Oh and of course none of this is going to restore the government this is just an effort to secure one city (Even if it is the capital) and break the back of the gangs there who are of course free to withdraw into the wilderness if someone wants to play freedom fighter.

TL:DR to restore order to Hati you basically have to invade it at this point, and no one wants to do that so it's just going to continue to get worse.

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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by Eternal_Freedom »

I hate to sound deeply cynical, but isn't "invading another country to install a preferable government" exactly what the US tried in Afghanistan and Iraq, and what Britain did in, well, most of the world? It's worked out very well before.

And if the justification is "it's for their own good" then you sound even more like some neo-colonialist (if that's even a word) - even if you actually are acting in their best interests. Even if you do have good intentions, any country that doesn't like you will rip to to shreds PR wise.

And given what I know of Haiti's history, another nation invading/occupying them is what started their cycle of revolutions in the first place, so I'm not sure how it will actually help longer-term.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by Mr Bean »

Eternal_Freedom wrote: 2024-04-01 01:34pm I hate to sound deeply cynical, but isn't "invading another country to install a preferable government" exactly what the US tried in Afghanistan and Iraq, and what Britain did in, well, most of the world? It's worked out very well before.

And if the justification is "it's for their own good" then you sound even more like some neo-colonialist (if that's even a word) - even if you actually are acting in their best interests. Even if you do have good intentions, any country that doesn't like you will rip to to shreds PR wise.

And given what I know of Haiti's history, another nation invading/occupying them is what started their cycle of revolutions in the first place, so I'm not sure how it will actually help longer-term.
Better to say "invading another country to install a government period" because that's were Haiti is now at the moment. And what's going on in Haiti does not match the issues of Afghanistan or Iraq. In one we attempted to overthrow a movement (The Taliban) that was trying to be a government and did not really stand up anything that could survive without US assistance because the US never managed to build institutions that were self support and that for a myriad of reasons. In Iraq by contrast we overthrew a government that had been keeping the peace by force between a three way fight between the Sunni,the Shiite's and the Kurds. Our attempts to make them play nice failed.

Haiti is not even that, Haiti is state with a long history of failure where the current government had fled and the various gangs are fighting it out to determine who gets to be the top dog who becomes the next strongman ruler of a 3rd world nation except none of them have the critical mass to start throwing together a revolution, so they fight and they die and are replaced and the violence feeds on itself until everything burns or someone crawls to the top of the corpse pile. Even now various gangs are setting up alliances both for or against other gangs and the violence swings between the occasional indirect shooting at the enemy territory to targeted killing.

In order to bring order to that kind of scenario where things have fallen that far you have to do thing like out manpower the gangs because the last thing Port-au-Prince needs is circling American Apache's and JSOC special action teams running around in theater. If you can establish order and calm things down and introduce a sense of normalcy for a few weeks you can look at massively scaling back operations. As mentioned however no one is going to do that.

I will add you are correct, regardless if this kind of military action would be in Haiti's short term interest to stop the killing and provide stability, it's Haiti's history that argues strongly that such a move would backfire over the long term which is why the Kenya option was being explored it's just that the manpower needed and what Kenya was suggesting to supply was enough to hold a few city blocks if that.

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3-Body Problem
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by 3-Body Problem »

Broomstick wrote: 2024-04-01 09:34am
3-Body Problem wrote: 2024-03-31 06:44pm The other issue with Haiti is that being so poor and being in the path of so many natural disasters means that no matter how good a leader is they'll fail to provide stability. So the people will inevitably feel as if any leadership that can exist there has failed them and the revolutionary spirit will rise again.
Then please explain the much greater stability of the Dominican Republic which occupies half the exact same island.

Yes, Haiti is fucked and historically has been fucked - but saying that due to location it is impossible to have a stable government in that location is bullshit.
The Dominican Republic is no where near as poor as Haiti because they haven't been historically shafted the same way. Haiti doesn't even have trees left up to stop the floods and mudslides. You can see the border between the two nations from well above them for this reason.

The poorness and terrible leaderships has Haiti more traumatized and less trusting than those they share an island with. It's too expensive to break the cycle so nobody who could do it wants to. This isn't rocket science.
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Re: Haiti collapse

Post by Ralin »

LadyTevar wrote: 2024-04-01 08:23am The situation, from what I'm seeing, would take another Invader coming in and completely taking over all levels of government, then brutally putting down the gangs

Considering putting down gangs is something that most countries have trouble doing on their own, even the US still has massive gang problems, this would lead to yet another dictator police state and Haiti would once again be fucked.
Aren't the gangs what amounts to the local government at this point?

Like, I don't know what terrible things the gang leader telling the prime minister to resign has done, but if they're both equally unelected and one controls the capitol and the other isn't physically able to enter the country sounds like gang leader guy has at least as much legitimacy as the prime minister. Wouldn't it be better for him to be recognized and given access to foreign aid and markets than foreign troops be sent in to install someone else?

It also seems like the countries willing to send troops into Haiti would do more good if they focused on forcing France to pay massive reparations to build up Haiti.
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