Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

Post Reply
User avatar
loomer
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4260
Joined: 2005-11-20 07:57am

Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s military on Friday directed the evacuation of northern Gaza, a region that is home to 1.1 million people — about half of the territory’s population — within 24 hours, a U.N. spokesman said.

This could signal an impending ground offensive, though the Israeli military has not yet confirmed such an appeal. On Thursday it said that while it was preparing, a decision has not yet been made.

The order, delivered to the U.N., comes as Israel presses an offensive against Hamas militants. U.N. spokesman Stéphane Dujarric called the order “impossible” without “devastating humanitarian consequences.”

Earlier, the Israeli military pulverized the Gaza Strip with airstrikes, prepared for a possible ground invasion and said its complete siege of the territory — which has left Palestinians desperate for food, fuel and medicine — would remain in place until Hamas militants free some 150 hostages taken during a grisly weekend incursion.

A visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, along with shipments of U.S. weapons, offered a powerful green light to Israel to drive ahead with its retaliation in Gaza after Hamas’ deadly attack on civilians and soldiers, even as international aid groups warned of a worsening humanitarian crisis. Israel has halted deliveries of basic necessities and electricity to Gaza’s 2.3 million people and prevented entry of supplies from Egypt.

“Not a single electricity switch will be flipped on, not a single faucet will be turned on and not a single fuel truck will enter until the Israeli hostages are returned home,” Israeli Energy Minister Israel Katz said on social media.

Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli military spokesman, told reporters Thursday that forces “are preparing for a ground maneuver” should political leaders order one.

A ground offensive in Gaza, which is ruled by Hamas and where the population is densely packed into a sliver of land only 40 kilometers (25 miles) long, would likely bring even higher casualties on both sides in brutal house-to-house fighting.

Hamas’ assault Saturday and smaller attacks since have killed more than 1,300 people in Israel, including 247 soldiers — a toll unseen in Israel for decades — and the ensuing Israeli bombardment has killed more than 1,530 people in Gaza, according to authorities on both sides. Israel says roughly 1,500 Hamas militants were killed inside Israel, and that hundreds of the dead in Gaza are Hamas members. Thousands have been wounded on both sides.

As Israel pounds Gaza from the air, Hamas militants have fired thousands of rockets into Israel. Amid concerns that the fighting could spread in the region, Syrian state media reported that Israeli airstrikes on Thursday put two Syrian international airports out of service.

The relentless barrage on Gaza — which the military said has so far involved 6,000 munitions — left Palestinians running through streets, carrying their belongings and looking for safety

A strike Thursday afternoon in the Jabaliya refugee camp took down a residential building on families sheltering inside, killing at least 45 people, Gaza’s Interior Ministry said. At least 23 of the dead were under the age of 18, including a month-old child, according to a list of the casualties.

The home belonging to the al-Shihab family was packed with relatives who had fled bombing in other areas. Neighbors said a second house was hit at the same time, but the toll was not immediately known. The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“We can’t flee because anywhere you go, you are bombed,” one neighbor, Khalil Abu Yahia, said. “You need a miracle to survive here.”

The number of people forced from their homes by the airstrikes soared 25% in a day, reaching 423,000 out of a population of 2.3 million, the U.N. said Thursday. Most crowded into U.N.-run schools.

Families were cutting down to one meal a day, said Rami Swailem, a 34-year-old lecturer at al-Azhar University, who had 32 relatives sheltering in his home. Water stopped coming to the building two days ago, and they have rationed what’s left in a tank on the roof.

Alaa Younis Abuel-Omrain has been staying in a U.N. school after a strike on her home killed eight members of her family — her mother, aunt, a sister, a brother and his wife and their three children. Most bakeries stopped producing bread for lack of electricity.

“Even if there is food in some areas, we can’t get to it because of strikes,” she said.

On Wednesday, Gaza’s only power station ran out of fuel and shut down, leaving only lights powered by scattered private generators.

Hospitals, overwhelmed by a constant stream of wounded and running out of supplies, have only a few days worth of fuel before their power cuts off, aid officials say.

“Without electricity, hospitals risk turning into morgues,” said Fabrizio Carboni, regional director of the International Committee of the Red Cross. Newborn incubators, kidney dialysis machines, X-ray equipment and more, are all dependent on power, he said.

Ambulance crews carrying bodies to the morgue at Gaza’s biggest hospital, Shifa, found no space left. Dozens of full body bags were lined up in the hospital parking lot. Fourteen health facilities have been damaged in strikes, health officials said Thursday.

With Israel sealing off the territory, the only way in or out is through the crossing with Egypt at Rafah, but Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said Thursday that airstrikes on Rafah have prevented it from operating. Egypt has been trying to convince Israel and the United States to allow aid and fuel through the crossing.

Israel is employing a new tactic of leveling whole neighborhoods, rather than just individual buildings. Hecht, the military spokesman, said targeting decisions were based on intelligence on locations being used by Hamas and that civilians were warned.

“Right now, we are focused on taking out their senior leadership,” Hecht said. The military said strikes have hit Hamas’ elite Nukhba forces, including command centers used by the fighters in Saturday’s attack, and the home of a senior Hamas naval operative used to store weapons.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to “crush” Hamas after the militants stormed into the country’s south on Saturday and massacred hundreds of people, including killings of children in their homes and young people at a music festival. Netanyahu said Hamas’ atrocities included beheading soldiers and raping women, descriptions that could not immediately be independently confirmed.

Amid grief and demands for vengeance among the Israeli public, the government is under intense pressure to topple Hamas rather than continuing to try to bottle it up in Gaza.

In a video released Thursday, civilian Hamas figures defended the group’s rampage and decried the civilian deaths in Gaza from six days of Israeli airstrikes. The solemn video lacked the bravado of a recording aired Saturday by Hamas’s military wing that hailed “the greatest battle” as the massacres were still taking place.

Basem Naim, a former Hamas government minister, said that in the “swift collapse” of the Israeli military on Saturday, “chaos prevailed and civilians found themselves in the middle of the confrontation.” The claim is contradicted by countless videos and survivor accounts of Hamas militants deliberately targeting and killing civilians in Israel.

Naim added that there would be no action to free the 150 captives taken back into Gaza while Israel’s operation continued.

Israel was a nation in mourning. At a funeral for a 25-year-old woman killed with at least 260 other people at a desert rave, and at another service for a slain Israeli soldier, mourners sat cross-legged on the ground next to caskets, wailing or quietly weeping.

In Gaza, too, mourners buried families together in shrouds. At one funeral, they placed the battered body of a little girl in the arms of her slain father.

Brewing anger over Israeli military and intelligence failures in the surprise attack is being directed at Netanyahu’s far-right government, which for months advanced a contentious legal overhaul that divided the country and affected the military.

In what appeared to be a first admission of fault from a government member, Israeli Education Minister Yoav Kisch told Israeli news outlet Ynet: “We are responsible. I, as a member of the government, am responsible. We were dealing with nonsense.”

Israel’s public diplomacy minister quit, the first fissure in Netanyahu’s government since the onslaught.

Four previous conflicts ended with Hamas still firmly in control of the territory it has ruled since 2007. Israel has mobilized 360,000 reservists, massed forces near Gaza and evacuated tens of thousands of residents from nearby communities. A new war Cabinet, which includes a longtime opposition politician, was sworn in Thursday to direct the fight.

A high-ranking Hamas official, Saleh Al-Arouri, warned Thursday that any Israeli invasion of Gaza “will turn into a disaster for its army,” saying the group was prepared to respond.

Blinken’s visit underscored American backing for Israel’s retaliation.

“You may be strong enough on your own to defend yourselves, but as long as America exists, you will never have to,” Blinken said after meeting with Netanyahu in Tel Aviv.

Blinken said he told Netanyahu that it was “so important to take every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.”

Blinken will also meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whose authority is confined to parts of the occupied West Bank, and Jordan’s King Abdullah II. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin planned to visit Israel on Friday.
Source

The people I talk to with a good picture on the situation are also pointing out that the majority of Gaza's functioning hospitals are located above the demarcation line, and emphasize the justified fear that any Gazan who leaves will never be allowed to return. To put it bluntly, this one isn't a 'might' - it is a will. The forced evacuation of 1.1 million people during a sustained campaign of deprivation and bombing will cause a humanitarian crisis of a massive scale, and very likely one sufficiently severe to constitute a crime against humanity. If Israel does not withdraw but instead seizes the land, it will be beyond any argument an act of forced population transfer, extermination, and the appropriation, destruction, and pillage of property.
"Doctors keep their scalpels and other instruments handy, for emergencies. Keep your philosophy ready too—ready to understand heaven and earth. In everything you do, even the smallest thing, remember the chain that links them. Nothing earthly succeeds by ignoring heaven, nothing heavenly by ignoring the earth." M.A.A.A
User avatar
loomer
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4260
Joined: 2005-11-20 07:57am

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

Quite how I managed to post the same thread twice, I don't know.
"Doctors keep their scalpels and other instruments handy, for emergencies. Keep your philosophy ready too—ready to understand heaven and earth. In everything you do, even the smallest thing, remember the chain that links them. Nothing earthly succeeds by ignoring heaven, nothing heavenly by ignoring the earth." M.A.A.A
User avatar
Jub
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4396
Joined: 2012-08-06 07:58pm
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Jub »

There are no words I can say about this that won't have Tev and Dalton threatening to ban me but fuck it. If they ban me they and the rest of the staff of this board will have shown themselves to be supporters of genocide and I wouldn't want to stay here anyway.

Israel. Is. A. Mistake.
User avatar
His Divine Shadow
Commence Primary Ignition
Posts: 12791
Joined: 2002-07-03 07:22am
Location: Finland, west coast

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by His Divine Shadow »

Why even post these threads here considering it cannot be talked about? What's the point?
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who did not.
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by MKSheppard »

So here we are again.

I really don't think the first thread should have been locked.

The whole IVP moratorium was because nothing ever changed in the situation. Everyone kept going round and round both here on the board and in the middle east.

This time around; things appear to be pretty different.

I've seen a graph going around where they go:

Per Capita Losses (per 1M)

2006 - Mumbai (India): 6.9 - NOT ON ORIGINAL, ADDED
1940 - The Blitz (London): 9
2001- September 11 (USA): 10
2023 - Israel Oct 10: 124

Even if we apply a correction factor for small population (like Israel is with only 9M) to avoid the effect of a single murder in nowhere Nebraska causing it to be 'deadlier' than inner city Baltimore per capita, it's really bad; so I feel that this time, Israel will not stop and will actually carry through to the end (of whatever they have planned).

That being said, this is 2023 not 2003. A lot has changed, with a lot more cards in play here.

The Islamic diaspora across Europe and the US is more advanced and in greater position(s) of power -- i.e. Dearborn Michigan for one.

Erdogan is still in power in Turkey -- and even though there was an official apology for the Mavi Marva flotilla mess a decade or more ago, Erdo is likely to use this crisis to extract his pound of flesh.

The US is fatigued out after two decades of war in the Middle East (Iraq) and Central Asia (Afghanistan) and dealing with a slow motion imploding economy.

A major regional war is going on right now between Ukraine and Russia -- Israel can't count fully on US/EU support; as AFU is consuming all the artillery ammo the US and EU are making pretty much -- I feel that if both the IDF and AFU get low on 155mm shells, AFU will be prioritized, etc.

In conclusion (it wouldn't be Shep without a meme)...

Image
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by MKSheppard »

loomer wrote: 2023-10-13 04:54amIf Israel does not withdraw but instead seizes the land, it will be beyond any argument an act of forced population transfer, extermination, and the appropriation, destruction, and pillage of property.
I feel most likely outcome of this is:

1.) Hamas obliterated -- pretty much what it says on the tin.

2.) Large portions of Gaza flattened in combined arms air/ground fighting.

3.) Remnants of Gaza turned over to international coalition to manage it -- I suspect that Turkey may be the one who gets it.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
loomer
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4260
Joined: 2005-11-20 07:57am

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

Jub wrote: 2023-10-13 05:59am There are no words I can say about this that won't have Tev and Dalton threatening to ban me but fuck it. If they ban me they and the rest of the staff of this board will have shown themselves to be supporters of genocide and I wouldn't want to stay here anyway.

Israel. Is. A. Mistake.
Perhaps you might like to actually contribute rather than just getting threads locked. If not, shut the fuck up with this zero-value noise.
His Divine Shadow wrote: 2023-10-13 06:44am Why even post these threads here considering it cannot be talked about? What's the point?
It can be. The rule isn't against reporting what's happening or providing analysis - only debate. In this case, we have a pretty clear situation that isn't debateable but may require some consideration of exactly what the actions mean. That being said - if it does get kicked off for being against the rule then the rule is clearly no longer fit for purpose.
MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-13 06:44am So here we are again.

I really don't think the first thread should have been locked.

The whole IVP moratorium was because nothing ever changed in the situation. Everyone kept going round and round both here on the board and in the middle east.

This time around; things appear to be pretty different.
There's also that. This is the largest escalation in a long time and already a humanitarian disaster on a mass scale. To not be free to discuss what stands out about it - sans high-noise low-signal shitposts - and the potential ramifications would be a joke.

That said, I can't say I see the relevance of Dearborn Michigan.
"Doctors keep their scalpels and other instruments handy, for emergencies. Keep your philosophy ready too—ready to understand heaven and earth. In everything you do, even the smallest thing, remember the chain that links them. Nothing earthly succeeds by ignoring heaven, nothing heavenly by ignoring the earth." M.A.A.A
Ralin
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4494
Joined: 2008-08-28 04:23am

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Ralin »

MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-13 06:55am
3.) Remnants of Gaza turned over to international coalition to manage it -- I suspect that Turkey may be the one who gets it.
Why would the Israeli government agree to that and/or who would force them to? It would only decrease their control over the area and interfere with what seems like a long-term goal of removing the Palestinians entirely.
bilateralrope
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 6090
Joined: 2005-06-25 06:50pm
Location: New Zealand

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by bilateralrope »

Jub wrote: 2023-10-13 05:59am There are no words I can say about this that won't have Tev and Dalton threatening to ban me but fuck it. If they ban me they and the rest of the staff of this board will have shown themselves to be supporters of genocide and I wouldn't want to stay here anyway.

Israel. Is. A. Mistake.
The circumstances behind why Israel exists do not matter. They exist. We can't undo it.

What matters is that neither Hamas or Israel seem to care about how many Gaza civilians are going to die here. Or worse, see mass civilian deaths as a good thing.

The only way I can see a genocide being averted here is if Israel runs out of ammo. Which leaves me worried about more civilian deaths if someone decides it's a good time to attack Israel.
User avatar
loomer
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4260
Joined: 2005-11-20 07:57am

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

The WHO's position is that the 24 hour window is not possible for critically ill patients.
...Israel’s evacuation order for Gaza amounts to a “death sentence” for vulnerable hospital patients, the World Health Organization has warned.

WHO spokesperson Tarik Jasarevic said health authorities in Gaza have advised that it is impossible to evacuate vulnerable hospital patients within 24 hours as ordered by Israel’s military.

“There are severely ill people whose injuries mean their only chances of survival is being on life support, such as mechanical ventilators,” Jasarevic said on Thursday.

“So moving those people is a death sentence. Asking health workers to do so is beyond cruel.”
To top it off, apparently the bombing is continuing along the routes out of Gaza City. It strikes me as particularly heinous - though unfortunately not out of character for the IDF - to demand a massive displacement, and then drop a few rounds on the (already shattered and difficult to traverse) ways to achieve that exit.

MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-13 06:55am
loomer wrote: 2023-10-13 04:54amIf Israel does not withdraw but instead seizes the land, it will be beyond any argument an act of forced population transfer, extermination, and the appropriation, destruction, and pillage of property.
I feel most likely outcome of this is:

1.) Hamas obliterated -- pretty much what it says on the tin.

2.) Large portions of Gaza flattened in combined arms air/ground fighting.

3.) Remnants of Gaza turned over to international coalition to manage it -- I suspect that Turkey may be the one who gets it.
I suspect 2 is the only one we'll actually see. Hamas will return, and 3 seems unlikely barring armed intervention - and since the majority of the world's governments are pledging support and the US is actually sending bombs...
"Doctors keep their scalpels and other instruments handy, for emergencies. Keep your philosophy ready too—ready to understand heaven and earth. In everything you do, even the smallest thing, remember the chain that links them. Nothing earthly succeeds by ignoring heaven, nothing heavenly by ignoring the earth." M.A.A.A
User avatar
Solauren
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 10324
Joined: 2003-05-11 09:41pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Solauren »

I don't think we'll see Hamas destroyed by this. It's current form annihilated is a possibility, but not destroyed outright.
I'm willing to bet it's upper leadership isn't even in the territory being bombed. Basic rule - don't shit where you live.

Now, As I stated before, I don't think Hamas is acting alone, and is probably being used as a proxy to lower material and political support away from the Ukraine. Apparently the initial attack came without Israeli intelligence noticing anything. You're think they were monitoring for stuff like this.

So, either someone in Israeli intelligence is on the take and helped conceal it, or the material entered Gaza via means that Israel wasn't working for. To me, that implies a new player and new movement methods, or a sudden massive shipment in concealed in someway.

If that's the case, and it's discovered, the situation, this is just the start of another major land war on the scale of what's happening in the Ukraine.

Of course, that has no baring on what is happening now.

Is the 24 hour window Israel gave unreasonable from a civilian/humanitarian perspective?
Absolutely. Then again, the entire situation in that area has been unreasonable since the end of World War 2, and there is plenty of blame to go around for that.

Is this going to cause an even bigger Humanitarian Crisis?
Again, absolutely.

Does a 24 hour window make sense from a military perspective?
Unfortunately, yes. You want to limit the time that your actual military targets (Hamas operatives) have time to move material that can be used against you later.

Are there things that Israel could be doing to lesson the impact of this?
Again, Absolutely. They could be sending in forces to help evacuate out hospitals, or to secure them and mark them so they don't get hit.

Is this going to result in the removal of the last Palestinians from Israel?
Probably.

This brings up another possibility I feel I need to speak.
Is the reason that Israel didn't receive any warning, because that is a false flag operation?

Simple idea - set up their own missile barrage into the rest of Israel, not do a lot of damage, and finally have the excuse to toss 'the rest' out....

Do I think that's likely? Hell No. Absolutely Not.

Simply because, if that happened, and it was revealed it was all a set up by Israel, they'd lose any international support they had at that point. Even if it was revealed to be one rogue general that pulled it off completely in secret, they'd lose it.

And since that's pretty much the only thing that let's Israel continue to exist, International Support, I can't see them risking it.

=

Now, all that being said.
I honestly hope that this was just 'bad timing for support of the Ukraine' situation, and it was entirely Hamas that's behind this. I hope that Israel's response is precise, with minimum civilian casualties, followed by Israel calming down and moving in to restore order and infrastructure and help people pick up their lives.

That would be the ideal.
I've been asked why I still follow a few of the people I know on Facebook with 'interesting political habits and view points'.

It's so when they comment on or approve of something, I know what pages to block/what not to vote for.
User avatar
LadyTevar
White Mage
White Mage
Posts: 23329
Joined: 2003-02-12 10:59pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by LadyTevar »

Jub wrote: 2023-10-13 05:59am There are no words I can say about this that won't have Tev and Dalton threatening to ban me but fuck it. If they ban me they and the rest of the staff of this board will have shown themselves to be supporters of genocide and I wouldn't want to stay here anyway.

Israel. Is. A. Mistake.
I TOLD HIM IF HE SAID THOSE WORDS IN **ANY** IVP THREAD I WOULD BAN HIM.

AND HERE HE EVEN SAYS HE KNOWS HE WILL BE BANNED, BUT SAYS THEM ANYWAY.

STUPIDITY HAS CONSEQUENCES. SAY GOODBYE.
Image
Nitram, slightly high on cough syrup: Do you know you're beautiful?
Me: Nope, that's why I have you around to tell me.
Nitram: You -are- beautiful. Anyone tries to tell you otherwise kill them.

"A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP" -- Leonard Nimoy, last Tweet
User avatar
Dalton
For Those About to Rock We Salute You
For Those About to Rock We Salute You
Posts: 22637
Joined: 2002-07-03 06:16pm
Location: New York, the Fuck You State
Contact:

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Dalton »

Jub wrote: 2023-10-13 05:59am There are no words I can say about this that won't have Tev and Dalton threatening to ban me but fuck it. If they ban me they and the rest of the staff of this board will have shown themselves to be supporters of genocide and I wouldn't want to stay here anyway.

Israel. Is. A. Mistake.
Ok cupcake. I mean, you could have continued the discussion without, y’know, flicking our noses and effectively daring one of us to ban you, and we called your bluff. Say what you will, but we don’t support genocide. We do, however, see eye to eye on kicking out arrogant shitposters who think they’re above the rules here. So, bye.
Image
Image
To Absent Friends
Dalton | Admin Smash | Knight of the Order of SDN

"y = mx + bro" - Surlethe
"You try THAT shit again, kid, and I will mod you. I will
mod you so hard, you'll wish I were Dalton." - Lagmonster

May the way of the Hero lead to the Triforce.
User avatar
LadyTevar
White Mage
White Mage
Posts: 23329
Joined: 2003-02-12 10:59pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by LadyTevar »

Ok.

now, for the OP.

No, this is not going to work, there's not enough time for people to be evacutated safely, especially those currently in hospitals. Also... Bigger Question:

WHERE WILL THEY GO?

Loomer mentioned the routes out of Gaza City are being bombed. I also wonder if Israel was going to allow border crossings. Was Egypt going to allow crossings? Are they goign to be able to leave by ship?

The UN and WHO are right, this is going to be a major crisis, and a major bloodbath when people can't get out.
Image
Nitram, slightly high on cough syrup: Do you know you're beautiful?
Me: Nope, that's why I have you around to tell me.
Nitram: You -are- beautiful. Anyone tries to tell you otherwise kill them.

"A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP" -- Leonard Nimoy, last Tweet
User avatar
EnterpriseSovereign
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4301
Joined: 2006-05-12 12:19pm
Location: Spacedock

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

I was wondering what role Egypt would play in this, however upon reading about the border, Egypt has its own reasons for hating Hamas. Of course, if Gaza received supplies that way despite Egyptian efforts you can expect the first target of the Israeli ground offensive will be the city of Rafah to take out any smuggling tunnels still present.
User avatar
loomer
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4260
Joined: 2005-11-20 07:57am

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-10-13 01:17pm I was wondering what role Egypt would play in this, however upon reading about the border, Egypt has its own reasons for hating Hamas. Of course, if Gaza received supplies that way despite Egyptian efforts you can expect the first target of the Israeli ground offensive will be the city of Rafah to take out any smuggling tunnels still present.
There's also the complication that Israel has already been actively bombing the crossing areas into Egypt.
Solauren wrote: 2023-10-13 11:01am I don't think we'll see Hamas destroyed by this. It's current form annihilated is a possibility, but not destroyed outright.
I'm willing to bet it's upper leadership isn't even in the territory being bombed. Basic rule - don't shit where you live.

Now, As I stated before, I don't think Hamas is acting alone, and is probably being used as a proxy to lower material and political support away from the Ukraine. Apparently the initial attack came without Israeli intelligence noticing anything. You're think they were monitoring for stuff like this.

So, either someone in Israeli intelligence is on the take and helped conceal it, or the material entered Gaza via means that Israel wasn't working for. To me, that implies a new player and new movement methods, or a sudden massive shipment in concealed in someway.

If that's the case, and it's discovered, the situation, this is just the start of another major land war on the scale of what's happening in the Ukraine.
It is a mistake to assume any intelligence agency is either a, infallible, or b, intelligent. Much as Israel's various agencies have pulled off some very impressive things, they also have a fairly conspicuous list of failures just like this - and from what I've been able to gather, are no more immune to the trap of trusting ELINT too much and forgetting the possibility of good old fashioned multi-level sneakernets than America's.

Of course, that has no baring on what is happening now.

Is the 24 hour window Israel gave unreasonable from a civilian/humanitarian perspective?
Absolutely. Then again, the entire situation in that area has been unreasonable since the end of World War 2, and there is plenty of blame to go around for that.
...
Does a 24 hour window make sense from a military perspective?
Unfortunately, yes. You want to limit the time that your actual military targets (Hamas operatives) have time to move material that can be used against you later.

Are there things that Israel could be doing to lesson the impact of this?
Again, Absolutely. They could be sending in forces to help evacuate out hospitals, or to secure them and mark them so they don't get hit.
And there we hit the rub. An action that is unreasonable and causes danger to civilians must cause that danger only proportionately to its military advantage and goals. Neither the blockade nor the 24-hour deadline - particularly given the UN, MSF, the WHO, and a variety of other serious authorities sounding off it is impossible and must be rescinded - meet the criteria. Proceeding with any planned action that follows is, though not automatically a war crime, extremely unlikely to meet the proportionality requirement.

Is the reason that Israel didn't receive any warning, because that is a false flag operation?

Simple idea - set up their own missile barrage into the rest of Israel, not do a lot of damage, and finally have the excuse to toss 'the rest' out....

Do I think that's likely? Hell No. Absolutely Not.

Simply because, if that happened, and it was revealed it was all a set up by Israel, they'd lose any international support they had at that point. Even if it was revealed to be one rogue general that pulled it off completely in secret, they'd lose it.

And since that's pretty much the only thing that let's Israel continue to exist, International Support, I can't see them risking it.
I'd say we've seen the fairly pitiful false flags already. Literal ones - the ISIS flags Hamas fighters 'just happened' to be carrying with them on the raids.

Meanwhile... Dozens killed while fleeing Gaza homes as Israel conducts ground raids
Dozens of Palestinians have been killed in Israeli air raids while trying to flee the northern Gaza Strip, according to Hamas officials, after the Israeli military ordered more than one million residents to evacuate in a demand rejected by the United Nations as “impossible”.

The media office of Hamas, the Palestinian group that governs the besieged Gaza Strip, said 70 people, mostly women and children, were killed in the air raids on cars leaving Gaza City. It said the vehicles were targeted in three places.

Thousands of Palestinian civilians began to flee to southern Gaza on Friday under a relentless barrage of air strikes after the Israeli military order although there were few signs of a mass exodus.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said any Palestinian who wants to “save their lives” must heed the order to move south as Israel prepares for an expected ground assault on the besieged coastal enclave.

About 1.1 million of Gaza’s 2.3 million people live in the northern part of the strip, which includes Gaza City, the most populated urban area.

Several rights groups have denounced the order and warned that a potential forced transfer of the civilian population would be a violation of international law.

Many Palestinians said they would not heed the order.

“The feeling is that there is no hope, that no one cares about Gaza or what’s happening to the people,” Gaza resident Mansour Shouman told Al Jazeera on Friday.

“If we’re going to die here, we’re going to die in our homes. We’re going to die in the north or the south. We’re going to die with our heads up high, standing on our lands, standing with our rights and holding strong to our faith.”

The Gaza Ministry of Health said on Friday that at least 1,800 people — more than half of them women or people under the age of 18 — have been killed as Israel pounds the strip with air strikes that have levelled entire neighbourhoods.

Hamas has told people to stay put, and many of the enclave’s residents already believe there is nowhere safe they can go.

“The noose around the civilian population in Gaza is tightening. How are 1.1 million people supposed to move across a densely populated war zone in less than 24 hours?” UN aid chief Martin Griffiths wrote on social media.

“Despite the occupation’s threats to shell; the decision has been made. We have not left and will not leave,” the medical organisation Palestinian Red Crescent said in a social media post. “Our medics will carry on their humanitarian duties. We won’t leave people to face death alone.”...
This is unequivocally vile. Targeting civilian transports that are obeying instructions to leave a conflict zone is inexcusable. Its also pretty clear evidence the instruction was never made in good faith (hands up if you thought it was - no? No one?) but couples with it in a particularly chilling way. The logic being set up is 'We told you to leave, so any civilian deaths aren't our fault' (which is not how it works on anything more than a tiny scale), followed by 'we will make it clear there is no point leaving so you don't bother', with inevitable, foreseeable, and criminal civilian deaths as the consequence. Its grotesque, and these bombings - just like the deliberate targeting of medics - constitute another war crime.
"Doctors keep their scalpels and other instruments handy, for emergencies. Keep your philosophy ready too—ready to understand heaven and earth. In everything you do, even the smallest thing, remember the chain that links them. Nothing earthly succeeds by ignoring heaven, nothing heavenly by ignoring the earth." M.A.A.A
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by MKSheppard »

loomer wrote: 2023-10-13 07:03amThat said, I can't say I see the relevance of Dearborn Michigan.
Dearborn has a population of 100K. Of that, 40K are roughly Arab.

Ten years ago in 2013...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... l/3460591/

Four of the people on Dearborn's seven-member council will be of Arab descent in a city that is more than 40% Arab American.

As Dearborn goes, so does everywhere else.

Lets pull out to a higher level and look at the latest news blurbs...I'm not gonna link, you can find them with google.

Berlin authorities have imposed a ban on Palestinian scarves in Berlin schools as part measures to curb antisemitism in the city, according to Tagesspiegel.

...

France’s interior minister on Thursday ordered local authorities to ban all pro-Palestinian demonstrations amid a rise in antisemitic acts since Hamas attacked Israel over the weekend.

...

Scholz announced a ban in Germany on all activity lauding Hamas crimes in Israel, including the use of their symbols, or expressions of praise for murder and manslaughter, and the burning of the Israeli flag. Anyone found to be doing so would be prosecuted, he said.

...

Foreign students, academics and workers who commit anti-Semitic acts or praise Hamas face being expelled from Britain under plans being drawn up by the Home Office....

...
Harvard students who blamed Israel for the massacre of its citizens by Hamas had their own future thrown into doubt last night as a host of blue chip CEOs declared them unemployable.

The elite university faced a massive backlash after 31 of its student societies issued a joint statement ‘holding the Israeli regime entirely responsible for all unfolding violence’.

The Anti-Defamation League denounced the statement as ‘anti-Semitic’ and others accused the university of tolerating hate speech.

But Wall Street appears even less forgiving with billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman revealing that his fellow bosses want to know who they are so ‘none of us inadvertently hire any of their members’.

The CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management said he has been approached by ‘a number of CEOs’, adding: ‘One should not be able to hide behind a corporate shield when issuing statements supporting the actions of terrorists, who, we now learn, have beheaded babies, among other inconceivably despicable acts.’
I went and checked the list of the Harvard organizations...and I found:

Harvard Kennedy School Bangladesh Caucus

So.. let's recap. Someone at Harvard joins the Bangladesh Caucus on their first day on campus, because their parents were from Bangladesh and BENGALI PRIDE is a thing.

Years later, they're threatened with blacklisting because they joined their nation's hometown caucasus?

I've come to realize that a ton of über-liberals, über-progressives and Jewish organizations are like BLART BLADE and ZOMG TORRENTS -- they're stuck in the past.

They still think it's about 1969-1989, when Jews were one of the largest/most visible religious/ethnic/whatever minority in the US and Western Europe.

It's been thirty-four years since 1989 and well; you've now got tons more minorities everywhere; i.e. there's a zillion and one Hindu/Bangladesh/Arab/etc etc student organizations, because the last 40~ years of ongoing migration patterns as well as Universities in teh US seeking overseas students -- because overseas students are a lucrative pile of cash -- i.e. they have to pay tuition in full, and don't get discounted state/local rates.

They all assumed everyone else in the minority game had the same goals and/or views as them (or could be guided to those views).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -book-bans
A recent school board meeting at which about 1,000 people gathered in Dearborn, Michigan, to pressure district officials to censor books with LGBTQ+ themes was in most ways similar to hundreds of other recent book ban hearings across the US.

Speakers alleged the books “promote mental health issues” and “self harm”, while the school district and liberals were seeking to “indoctrinate children”. Gay people, they said, were “creeps and pedohiles”, and gay lifestyles were equated with zoophilia.

“American values and the American way is not child pornography,” one angry parent told the Dearborn public school board.

But the speakers were not the white, rightwing conservative Christians usually behind efforts to censor literature in public schools. Instead, the heated audience was almost all Muslim Arab Americans.
The funny thing is -- a lot of this was happening before September 11, 2001 -- there were elements in the GOP which wanted to court the growing Arab population as a source of funding/votes for the GOP.

9/11 stopped that for two decades. Now that's possibly gonna happen in the next ten years or so.

Maybe even faster; because so many people are adopting positions all of a sudden in direct contravention to what they've been saying for decades.

Kissinger starts to have doubts
“It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,” the 100-year-old ex-top American diplomat said in an interview with Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner for Germany’s Welt TV. Axel Springer is POLITICO’s parent company.

German-born Kissinger — who fled Nazi Germany with his family in 1938, and went on to become the architect of American foreign policy during the Vietnam War — said that it was “painful,” in response to a question about seeing Arabs in Berlin celebrating last weekend’s assault on Israel.
All the crazy backlashes to pro-Palestinian demonstrations that are occuring are basically teaching the Brown People [tm] that all that bullshit about free speech, etc, human rights, etc whatever etc is just that -- bullshit.

How do you think this is gonna play out in the near future?

Let's recap here again rough Islamic pop %s (numbers are very vague)

Germany: 6.5~%
France: 5% total pop, up to 10% in certain cities
UK: 6.5% total pop, up to 30+% in London.

Crude approximations can be drawn from US history; where people of Irish ancestry made up 15% or more of the local population in key states, with the average being about 8% in many states.

Right now, Israel is in the Indian Summer of her influence in the US and Western Europe; and I don't think they can grok this; but some people may be more attuned to that fact than others.

The young population in Europe and the US is much browner than it used to be -- you see this reflected in, as I said before; the much larger groups in college, etc and also online.

The older, more pro-Israel (generally) population (on the internet and IRL) is just now too busy with life, families, etc to white knight anymore.

My advice to Israel would be to get this entire damn thing settled NOW; while you've still got enough influence to come out of it with a generally advantageous solution. If you push this off for another war in ten years' time, you'll have to deal with a much larger pro-Palestinian faction in the West.

But I get the feeling that they [Israel] won't. If the US in Iraq is a 1.0 on a scale of stupidity; Israel is about a 9 or 10 on the scale of stupid. You respond to the worst terrorist attack since 9/11 (and proportionately worse than 9/11 to you) by...cratering the runways of Damascus International Airport in Syria?

If you really wanted to stop Iranian arms from moving through Syria, you'd use covert operations using explosive laden drones to cause mysterious explosions of the arms caches as they move through Syria.

There's just something fundamentally "locked" into Israeli strategic and tactical thought -- the need to constantly teabag their opponents; even when it makes no sense to blatantly teabag them. The US is considerably more circumspect.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by MKSheppard »

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sj2h11muw6

I'll bulletpoint this for you.

1.) IAF has dropped 6,000 munitions on Gaza.

2.) During the most intense year of the American fighting in Afghanistan, a little more than 7,423 bombs were dropped.

3.) During the entire war in Libya, NATO reported dropping more than 7,600 bombs and missiles from aircraft.

4. ) In the fight against ISIS, from 2014 to 2019, the US-led coalition dropped 2,000 to 5,000 bombs all over Iraq and Syria.

Also, IAF has been spotted using M117 dumb bombs on F-16s -- that's a Vietnam era bomb long since retired by the US.

I think that the IDF is behaving like Strategic Air Command in 1962 -- they're going down the target list like rote, locked into a:

"we must react! We must show power! ZOMG" freakout where they go "Pull out that list of HAMAS C3I facilities we put together a year ago and bomb them all."

Similar to how SAC targeted three individual soviet Ministers with a nuke to each one...when they all worked in the same building.

EDIT: I'd like to point out that the last four wars the IDF has been in since like 2000 have all followed the same pattern even a dumb mofo like me can discern:

1.) Some sort of Atrocity or Attack by Hamas/Hizbollah that sparks the whole thing off.

2.) IDF starts reacting. Strong international support at the start.

3.) IAF continues to bomb, bomb bomb day after day. International support weakens.

4.) By the time the IDF ground forces actually go into operation, international support is much weaker then at the start of the war; and eventual war termination is forced by political means.

GOTO #1 about six years later.

Doesn't the IDF have staff officers who can plot "# of positive news articles per day in Western Newspapers" against "length of aerial campaign" and suggest an optimum air campaign length?

Also...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/worl ... -gaza.html
The 10 gunmen from Gaza knew exactly how to find the Israeli intelligence hub — and how to get inside.

After crossing into Israel, they headed east on five motorcycles, two gunmen on each vehicle, shooting at passing civilian cars as they pressed forward.

Ten miles later, they veered off the road into a stretch of woodland, dismounting outside an unmanned gate to a military base. They blew open the barrier with a small explosive charge, entered the base and paused to take a group selfie. Then they shot dead an unarmed Israeli soldier dressed in a T-shirt.

For a moment, the attackers appeared uncertain about where to go next. Then one of them pulled something from his pocket: a color-coded map of the complex.

Reoriented, they found an unlocked door to a fortified building. Once inside, they entered a room filled with computers — the military intelligence hub. Under a bed in the room, they found two soldiers taking shelter.

The gunmen shot both dead.

This sequence was captured on a camera mounted on the head of a gunman who was later killed. The New York Times reviewed the footage, then verified the events by interviewing Israeli officials and checking Israeli military video of the attack as well.
Clown World called and wants to say it's sorry for 2023 so far.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
Solauren
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 10324
Joined: 2003-05-11 09:41pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Solauren »

Please tell me they are (at least) NOT using M117Ds. If they don't go off, they act as mines that go off when something mental gets close. Meaning, local rescue vehicles, or people moving back into the area could set them off.
I've been asked why I still follow a few of the people I know on Facebook with 'interesting political habits and view points'.

It's so when they comment on or approve of something, I know what pages to block/what not to vote for.
User avatar
EnterpriseSovereign
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4301
Joined: 2006-05-12 12:19pm
Location: Spacedock

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

I expect them to be breaking out the bunker busters for use against the tunnel network underneath the strip.
bilateralrope
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 6090
Joined: 2005-06-25 06:50pm
Location: New Zealand

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by bilateralrope »

BBC journalists assaulted, held at gunpoint by Israeli police, broadcaster says
The BBC said on Friday a group of its journalists covering Israel's war with Hamas were held at gunpoint and assaulted by Israeli police in Tel Aviv.

It came as the team of three journalists drove to their hotel in a vehicle "clearly marked as media", the UK news network said.

The BBC said the team was "dragged from their vehicle", searched and pushed up against a wall during the stop. One of its journalists said when he tried to film the incident, an officer threw his phone to the ground.

"Journalists must be able to report on the conflict in Israel-Gaza freely," a BBC spokesperson said in a statement provided to CNN.

An Israeli police spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The incident came as Israel faces questions after firing artillery into southern Lebanon on Friday, killing a Reuters videographer and injuring six other journalists.

In that instance, the journalists were wearing jackets identifying themselves as members of the press. The Israel Defence Forces acknowledged firing artillery into Lebanon on Friday but did not respond to additional questions specifically related to the victims.
Is anyone surprised ?
User avatar
loomer
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4260
Joined: 2005-11-20 07:57am

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

"Doctors keep their scalpels and other instruments handy, for emergencies. Keep your philosophy ready too—ready to understand heaven and earth. In everything you do, even the smallest thing, remember the chain that links them. Nothing earthly succeeds by ignoring heaven, nothing heavenly by ignoring the earth." M.A.A.A
User avatar
LadyTevar
White Mage
White Mage
Posts: 23329
Joined: 2003-02-12 10:59pm

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by LadyTevar »

Thank you, guys, for doing a good job staying on OP. Dalton and I are monitoring this.

BBC LIVE UPDATES
  • The IDF has "cleared" two routes for the retreat.

    RUSSIA is trying to play Peacemaker, and is trying to meet Hamas to discuss release of hostages

    Ali Qadhi, the Hamas commander who led the cross-border attack on Israeli settlements last Saturday, reported killed by IDF via Drone Strike.
Image
Nitram, slightly high on cough syrup: Do you know you're beautiful?
Me: Nope, that's why I have you around to tell me.
Nitram: You -are- beautiful. Anyone tries to tell you otherwise kill them.

"A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP" -- Leonard Nimoy, last Tweet
User avatar
Zaune
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7510
Joined: 2010-06-21 11:05am
Location: In Transit
Contact:

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Zaune »

LadyTevar wrote: 2023-10-14 06:36amRUSSIA is trying to play Peacemaker, and is trying to meet Hamas to discuss release of hostages
Hah. You know things have gone spectacularly wahoonie-shaped when Tsar Vladimir is stepping up to play mediator.
There are hardly any excesses of the most crazed psychopath that cannot easily be duplicated by a normal kindly family man who just comes in to work every day and has a job to do.
-- (Terry Pratchett, Small Gods)


Replace "ginger" with "n*gger," and suddenly it become a lot less funny, doesn't it?
-- fgalkin


Like my writing? Tip me on Patreon

I Have A Blog
bilateralrope
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 6090
Joined: 2005-06-25 06:50pm
Location: New Zealand

Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by bilateralrope »

MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-13 09:13pm EDIT: I'd like to point out that the last four wars the IDF has been in since like 2000 have all followed the same pattern even a dumb mofo like me can discern:

1.) Some sort of Atrocity or Attack by Hamas/Hizbollah that sparks the whole thing off.

2.) IDF starts reacting. Strong international support at the start.

3.) IAF continues to bomb, bomb bomb day after day. International support weakens.

4.) By the time the IDF ground forces actually go into operation, international support is much weaker then at the start of the war; and eventual war termination is forced by political means.

GOTO #1 about six years later.
Which leads to two questions:
- What did Hamas think they would gain from their attack ?

- Did they make Israel angry enough that international support will need to get lower before this war ends ?
Post Reply