My understanding there is that China did have a spy balloon fly over the US. The US shot it down once it was safely over water. Then some performative outrage about it.
Then the US probably used a $400k missile to shoot down a $12 balloon.
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My understanding there is that China did have a spy balloon fly over the US. The US shot it down once it was safely over water. Then some performative outrage about it.
As I commented (as Aim9snake) on a right-winger's blog:bilateralrope wrote: ↑2023-03-04 03:24amMy understanding there is that China did have a spy balloon fly over the US. The US shot it down once it was safely over water. Then some performative outrage about it.
China is not choosing to start shit with the US, much less a NUCLEAR WAR; it's the other way around.The panic over the "spy balloon" is ridiculous. Think logically: How can one control the direction a balloon will go, after it's launched? Answer: It cannot be controlled unless it's fitted with a propulsion system, i.e., a propeller and a motor- which are not visible on the balloon everyone is panicking over.
That means there is no guarantee the "spy balloon" will actually fly over anything worth spying on, or remain over such a thing long enough to collect useful intelligence. That means any spy equipment it carries, will likely end up dead weight.
It's certainly conceivable the Chinese military will add spy equipment to what is actually a weather balloon, on the off chance it will actually fly over something worth spying on; but as this chance is laughably miniscule, I think the Chinese military will insist the equipment be cheap, to avoid wasting money. The cheapness will further diminish its chances of catching anything worthwhile, but the "spy balloon" wasn't a worthwhile platform in the first place.
And why use an irreplaceable F-22 stealth fighter to shoot down the defenseless balloon? Shouldn't the Air Force conserve its remaining flight hours for use on something worthwhile, e.g., shadowing J-20 stealth fighters over the Taiwan Strait?
Which balloon was this? Since the first big one, the one that got shot down off Myrtle Beach, probably had tens of thousands of dollars worth of electrical equipment hanging from it.Broomstick wrote: ↑2023-03-04 06:18am The USAF shot down a $12 balloon with a $400k missile in part to appease the unwashed masses, which from a political viewpoint might have been money well spent even if it's ridiculous from other viewpoints.
Although the war in Ukraine has demonstrated just how dangerous inexpensive devices can be.
That's just fucking ignorance about how balloons actually work. You certainly can steer a balloon even without a propulsion system - you raise and lower the altitude to find an air mass going in the direction you want to go. Sure, it's limited, but jet streams and major air currents are no longer mysteries, and from that altitude a camera surveys a broad area. This is nothing new, balloons have been used since the 19th Century for all sort of things, they aren't entirely random thing.Sidewinder wrote: ↑2023-03-04 01:21pm As I commented (as Aim9snake) on a right-winger's blog:The panic over the "spy balloon" is ridiculous. Think logically: How can one control the direction a balloon will go, after it's launched? Answer: It cannot be controlled unless it's fitted with a propulsion system, i.e., a propeller and a motor- which are not visible on the balloon everyone is panicking over.
Actually, we are in fact able to replace an F-22 since we're the folks who make them and the tooling still exists. Granted, we aren't currently producing them, and it would cost a chunk of money, but we do have 180+ total. Losing one would be a shame, but not a disaster. But, that aside...And why use an irreplaceable F-22 stealth fighter to shoot down the defenseless balloon? Shouldn't the Air Force conserve its remaining flight hours for use on something worthwhile, e.g., shadowing J-20 stealth fighters over the Taiwan Strait?
Please. Calm down. Neither China nor the US wants an actual shooting war between them, much less something nuclear. But national militaries do engage in posturing, they poke and prod looking for weaknesses.Sidewinder wrote: ↑2023-03-04 01:21pmChina is not choosing to start shit with the US, much less a NUCLEAR WAR; it's the other way around.
It was a balloon shot down over Lake Huron, between Michigan and CanadaSteve wrote: ↑2023-03-04 01:31pmWhich balloon was this? Since the first big one, the one that got shot down off Myrtle Beach, probably had tens of thousands of dollars worth of electrical equipment hanging from it.Broomstick wrote: ↑2023-03-04 06:18am The USAF shot down a $12 balloon with a $400k missile in part to appease the unwashed masses, which from a political viewpoint might have been money well spent even if it's ridiculous from other viewpoints.
Although the war in Ukraine has demonstrated just how dangerous inexpensive devices can be.
Ukraine is withdrawing from Bakhmut, or rather what's left of it.Russian troops are likely using shovels for "hand-to-hand" combat in Ukraine because of an ammunition shortage, UK intelligence has said.
In its update on the war on Sunday, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said Vladimir Putin’s troops were ordered to attack a Ukrainian position armed just with “firearms and shovels” late last month.
It said the shovel was an MPL-50 - a tool that was designed in 1869 and has not changed much since. The MoD said it “highlights the brutal and low-tech fighting” that has characterised much of the war.
It said: “In late February 2023, Russian mobilised reservists described being ordered to assault a Ukrainian concrete strong point armed with only ‘firearms and shovels’. The ‘shovels’ are likely entrenching tools being employed for hand-to-hand combat.
“The lethality of the standard-issue MPL-50 entrenching tool is particularly mythologised in Russia. Little changed since it was designed in 1869, its continued use as a weapon highlights the brutal and low-tech fighting which has come to characterise much of the war.
“Recent evidence suggests an increase in close combat in Ukraine. This is probably a result of the Russian command continuing to insist on offensive action largely consisting of dismounted infantry, with less support from artillery fire because Russia is short of munitions.”
The MoD did not say where the battles where shovels were being used took place.
Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has blamed Russian deaths in Ukraine on the recent shortage. He recently posted an image of his dead troops in Ukraine, calling for ordinary Russians to help.
Last month he said in a message to his press service: “These are the guys who died yesterday because of so-called ‘shell shortages’. There are five times more of them than there should have been,”
He called for Russians to demand the defence ministry give ammunition to his troops, though he did not want them to resort to protests.
The leader of the Wagner Group has demanded that the Russian military send his mercenary troops ammunition immediately. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder and leader, who is on the frontline in the fight for Bakhmut, issued the demand under a veiled ultimatum. He warned that if his troops did not receive any more ammunition, they would retreat and the entire Russian frontline would collapse.
The threat was delivered in a four-minute video message recorded Sunday night near Bakhmut.
Mr Prigozhin said the retreat of mercenaries from Bakhmut due to "ammunition shortage" would lead to the collapse of the front up to the Russian border "or even further," adding Crimea would also fall to Ukraine.
The Wagner chief said: "If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse.
"The situation will be unpleasant for all military formations protecting Russia's interests."
He said claimed that the Russian army would be "forced to stabilise the front" while "Crimea falls".
The Wagner Chief suggested that the Russian military brass was trying to "set up" his forces to be the scapegoats for a Russian defeat in Ukraine.
He said: "What if they want to set us up and say we are villains, and that's why we aren't given ammo and weapons and allowed to reinforce personnel, including convicts?"
Hitting out at Russia's regular army, Mr Prigozhin described his mercenaries as the "cement" holding the whole war effort together.
He said: "Wagner is the cement. We are drawing the entire Ukrainian army on ourselves, breaking them and destroying them."
The threatening video message comes just a day after Mr Prigozhin boasted that Wagner was on the brink of victory in Bakhmut.
The Wagner boss has increasingly spoken out against the Russian military elite in recent months.
He publicly accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov of committing "treason" by trying to "destroy" Wagner out of jealousy of his victories in Ukraine.
Mr Prigozhin has also repeatedly praised the Ukrainian army as a worthy and capable adversary.
This comes as intense fighting continues to reign in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces still control the city despite the street fighting, according to the deputy mayor of Bakhmut, Oleksandr Marchenko.
Top Ukrainian commander, Volodymyr Nazarenko, said that Russian forces lacked ammunition and were shelling the city chaotically.
Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.bilateralrope wrote: ↑2023-03-06 12:13am Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.
I don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.LadyTevar wrote: ↑2023-03-06 01:10pmCouldn't happen to a more deserving guy.bilateralrope wrote: ↑2023-03-06 12:13am Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.
It will be interesting to see what actually happens.
Bakhmut is turning into no-man's land- Ukraine isn't holding it and Russia isn't taking it.Russia has been forced to turn to 60-year-old tanks because it is suffering heavy losses in its war against Ukraine, the UK has said.
An official intelligence update from the Ministry of Defence said the country’s military had taken 800 T-62 main battle tanks (MBTs), first introduced in 1961, out of storage “to make up for previous losses” in the ongoing conflict.
Russia has also deployed an unspecified number of Russian BTR-50 armoured personnel carriers, first used in war in 1954, in Ukraine for the first time and the update said it may bring more of both these types of vehicles into service as the war continues.
While some of these vehicles “have received upgraded sighting systems which will highly likely improve their effectiveness at night,” the intelligence update said, “both these vintage vehicle types will present many vulnerabilities on the modern battlefield, including the absence of modern explosive reactive armour”.
“There is a realistic possibilitiy that even units of the 1st Guards Tank Army (1GTA), supposedly Russia’s premier tank force, will be re-equipped with T-62s to make up for previous losses,” it added.
It comes as the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force pleaded for ammunition for his troops around the eastern Ukrainian city.
“If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse,” Yevgeny Prigozhin said on the weekend.
“The situation will not be sweet for all military formations protecting Russian interests,” he warned.
Meanwhile, it also comes amid reports that Russian soldiers are likely using “shovels” in hand-to-hand combat because of depleted stock.
The British defence ministry described how in late February Russian troops were ordered to attack a Ukrainian position armed just with “firearms and shovels”.
Russia has lost at least 1,780 tanks since the outset of the conflict in February 2022, according to an analysis by open-source intelligence platform Oryx.
The Russians would should then or the Ukrainians would have a trial and shoot them. Wagner mercs are everything from criminal scum, third world mercs or Russian citizens with a generous helping of "volunteers" who are there least they be shot. The solid core of Wagner is still private army mercs from every place on the planet but it seems Wagner uses them to keep the other groups in line these days not to fight.
They won't switch sides, but I would like to see what happens to the Russian Front if they did pull back and/or ignore orders (like they have in the past).
Makes you wonder if Putin has gotten himself so surrounded by yes men that what he hears of the state of things and how they actually are, are too very different things. So like Hitler in 1945 when Berlin was fought over Putin is making plans based on units and material that exists only on paper.EnterpriseSovereign wrote: ↑2023-03-06 02:15pmI don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.LadyTevar wrote: ↑2023-03-06 01:10pmCouldn't happen to a more deserving guy.bilateralrope wrote: ↑2023-03-06 12:13am Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.
It will be interesting to see what actually happens.
Speaking of people Putin getting upset with -- there's rumors that the Chechnyan Leader Ramzan Kadyrov has been Poisoned. It seems clear he's suffering severe kidney issues, perhaps going as far as Renal Failure. Sources say he's brought the United Arab Emirate’s chief nephrologist, to Chechnya’s capital for treatment, as Kadyrov doesn't trust Russian DoctorsLord Revan wrote: ↑2023-03-06 08:09pmMakes you wonder if Putin has gotten himself so surrounded by yes men that what he hears of the state of things and how they actually are, are too very different things. So like Hitler in 1945 when Berlin was fought over Putin is making plans based on units and material that exists only on paper.EnterpriseSovereign wrote: ↑2023-03-06 02:15pmI don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.
I mean we've seen several times that upsetting Putin results on the person taking a walk out of the nearest open window, so it's not unreasonable to assume that those close to him feed him what he wants to hear instead of how things actually are, as much as possible, so a total disaster becomes a minor delay or set back.
Perhaps Putin views this as a way to eliminate a potential threat to his power?EnterpriseSovereign wrote: ↑2023-03-06 02:15pm I don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.
It's possible he is being setup to take the blame for when Putin orders the retreat.EnterpriseSovereign wrote: ↑2023-03-06 02:15pmI don't know what Putin expects him to do without the ammo to actually do it.LadyTevar wrote: ↑2023-03-06 01:10pmCouldn't happen to a more deserving guy.bilateralrope wrote: ↑2023-03-06 12:13am Sounds like Prigozhin is aiming to get tried and executed for treason.
It will be interesting to see what actually happens.
Wagner isn't really an independent PMC though it's more the 'plausible deniability' arm of the Russian military, or Putin's personal janissaries.
Can that plausible deniability aspect survive the Ukraine war ?Marko Dash wrote: ↑2023-03-06 11:03pmWagner isn't really an independent PMC though it's more the 'plausible deniability' arm of the Russian military, or Putin's personal janissaries.