Japanese Prime Minister to resign

[Morilore]

Japanese prime minister resigns

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced he is resigning after less than a year in office.

Mr Abe had been facing growing calls to quit since his party lost upper house elections in July, and opinion polls showed he was increasingly unpopular.

Visibly distressed, he told a packed news conference that Japan needed a new leader to "fight against terrorism".

His party is set to meet next week to pick a new PM, but analysts say a fresh general election is unlikely.

Days earlier, Mr Abe had staked his job on extending Japan's naval support for the US-led mission in Afghanistan beyond a current November deadline.

News of the resignation, coming just before a parliamentary debate on the issue, took many analysts by surprise.


He was expecting people to rally around him... Most people just raised an eyebrow and told him to shut the door on his way out


What led Abe to resign?

Mr Abe, who is seen as a nationalist, took over as prime minister a year ago. At 52, he was Japan's youngest post-war head of government.

But his poll ratings plummeted amid a row over pensions and a series of financial scandals involving some of his cabinet ministers.

The ruling Liberal Democrat Party is due to meet on 19 September to choose a new leader, who will automatically become prime minister.

Their secretary-general, Taro Aso, a close Abe ally who is seen to share most of his hawkish views on security policy, is the most likely candidate for the post.

Heavy blow

Mr Abe did not give a date for his departure from office but said he had instructed party leaders to search for a new premier.


ROAD TO RESIGNATION
Sept 2006: Shinzo Abe is elected as PM, with long agenda of reforms
Early 2007: Series of scandals involving senior ministers
July 2007: LDP loses control of Japan's upper house for the first time in its history.
27 Aug: Abe reshuffles his Cabinet
9 Sept: Abe stakes his job on extending Japan's support of US-led mission in Afghanistan
12 Sept: Abe announces he is stepping down

Resignation speech in full
Abe's road to resignation

"In the present situation it is difficult to push ahead with effective policies that win the support and trust of the public," he said.

"I have decided that we need a change in this situation... The people need a leader whom they can support and trust," he added.

Cabinet-level resignations and the disastrous defeat at the recent upper house elections left Mr Abe unable to gain momentum on any of his major policies.

Surprise timing

Mr Abe had been due to answer questions in parliament later on Wednesday over plans to extend the Japanese naval mission in support of US-led operations in Afghanistan.

Japanese naval ships on exercises in October 2006
Japan's navy refuels US aircraft in the Indian Ocean
Although he had pledged on Sunday to quit if he did not get parliamentary approval for the extension, on Wednesday he suggested his departure might aid passage of the bill.

"I believe that my resignation will let Japan continue to fight against terrorism under a new prime minister," he said.

Mizuho Fukushima, head of the opposition Social Democratic Party, condemned the timing as "irresponsible", adding that he should have left office after the July election defeat.

Koichi Haji, chief economist at NLI Research Institute, also said the move had come as "a huge surprise".

"He said he would risk his job in passing the anti-terrorism law, so I don't know why he is resigning before making the effort," he said.

Mr Haji suggested the resignation would have only limited impact on economic policy but he did expect stock prices to "get hit" because of the political uncertainty.

I wish these sorts of things would happen in America.

[Archaic`]

The only reason he hadn't resigned earlier, was because they didn't really have a suitable replacement. They must finally have ceased factional infighting, and found one. The question is...what kinds of policies will this new leader (almost certainly Taro Aso at this point) focus on? Domestic economic policy? Foreign trade? Or terrorism?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

The only reason he hadn't resigned earlier, was because they didn't really have a suitable replacement. They must finally have ceased factional infighting, and found one. The question is...what kinds of policies will this new leader (almost certainly Taro Aso at this point) focus on? Domestic economic policy? Foreign trade? Or terrorism?

Er? Then why all the bravado after he lost the upper house elections? That they are indulging in factional-infighting is probably without doubt. Something must have tipped over.

[Superman]

Wow. His ratings are almost as low as Shrubby's.

[Pelranius]

And since when did terrorism become a major electoral issue in Japan, anyways?

[Mlenk]

The question is...what kinds of policies will this new leader (almost certainly Taro Aso at this point) focus on? Domestic economic policy? Foreign trade? Or terrorism?

I think that the Japanese should just hit the 'fuck it' button and amend their Constitution to give them the right to potentially wage war again and perhaps even go nuclear. I always thought it kind of funny that unlike some of America's other allies whom we have sworn to defend, Japan can overwhelmingly "take care of itself" in most if not all ways.

[Mlenk]

And since when did terrorism become a major electoral issue in Japan, anyways?

Well, correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't Japan contribute a lot to America's global war on terror (through financial aid)?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Actually, terrorism isn't the issue. China and N.Korea is. That aside, the issue a lot of Japanese is not with the terrorism, but rather military aid. It's a lingering issue as to whether it conforms to the pacifist constitution.

[Sea Skimmer]

And since when did terrorism become a major electoral issue in Japan, anyways?

The US War on Terror is a major issue, though by no means the biggest around, in Japan because they currently maintain a naval oilier (somtimes two IIRC) in the Indian Ocean to help fuel coalition warships. At times they have been joined by surface warships as well. This deployment has been ongoing since 2001, and each year it has had to have it special constitution skipping around authorization renewed. That authorization is now once more due for renewal.

The Japanese deployment in Iraq occurred via a similar time limited authorization.

[Darth Raptor]

I think that the Japanese should just hit the 'fuck it' button and amend their Constitution to give them the right to potentially wage war again and perhaps even go nuclear. I always thought it kind of funny that unlike some of America's other allies whom we have sworn to defend, Japan can overwhelmingly "take care of itself" in most if not all ways.

I have a hard time imagining why such a nation would be clamoring to build up a military when there's no real need for it. The US takes care of almost all of Japan's external security needs- what few exist. There's so much else they could be doing with that money. Imagine what the US could accomplish domestically if the military was a non-issue. Were I in Japan's position, I'd be milking this arrangement as much as I could for as long as I could. It's not like they could take on China without us, anyway. There are only a few explanations for why Japan would want its own military, and most of them are either stupid or malicious. When I first read that Abe would be resigning, I was hoping his nationalistic bent would exit stage left with him. No such luck, it seems.

[Big Orange]

And since when did terrorism become a major electoral issue in Japan, anyways?

Since perhaps March the 20th 1995, when the Aum Shinrikyo cult released Sarin gas into the Tokyo subway? And Japan has little to fear from outsiders, since they've had many home grown loonies - one unusual case in the 1960s or 70s was when a clique of extreme nationalists held a JDF general hostage and the nationalist leader tried to appeal to the JDF soldiers to join the cause, then he and his henchman all suddenly committed suicide when they failed to gain support from the dumfounded JDF soldiers watching them.

[Archaic`]

The question is...what kinds of policies will this new leader (almost certainly Taro Aso at this point) focus on? Domestic economic policy? Foreign trade? Or terrorism?

I think that the Japanese should just hit the 'fuck it' button and amend their Constitution to give them the right to potentially wage war again and perhaps even go nuclear. I always thought it kind of funny that unlike some of America's other allies whom we have sworn to defend, Japan can overwhelmingly "take care of itself" in most if not all ways.

ou.

And Abe would've agreed with you. The voters however, are bitterly divided on the issue. Many believe that Japan should have no military projection power whatsoever, only what's necessary for defence of the home islands.

[phongn]

There are only a few explanations for why Japan would want its own military, and most of them are either stupid or malicious. When I first read that Abe would be resigning, I was hoping his nationalistic bent would exit stage left with him. No such luck, it seems.

What if the US has a change of heart and decides to leave Japan to fend for themselves? Relying on the goodwill of a nation on the other side of the Pacific does not constitute a good defense policy. Also, you might note that their military is almost entirely defensive in nature.

[Darth Raptor]

What if the US has a change of heart and decides to leave Japan to fend for themselves? Relying on the goodwill of a nation on the other side of the Pacific does not constitute a good defense policy. Also, you might note that their military is almost entirely defensive in nature.

It's my understanding that the Self Defense Forces are semi-kosher under the pacifist, post-war constitution. While what's really proscribed is the kind of military that can operate in an offensive capacity; allowing Japan to threaten other countries. What possible, non-bad thing could they want that for?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

It's my understanding that the Self Defense Forces are semi-kosher under the pacifist, post-war constitution. While what's really proscribed is the kind of military that can operate in an offensive capacity; allowing Japan to threaten other countries. What possible, non-bad thing could they want that for?

Well, a good question to ponder about, is how all the creative rewriting of history will change Japan say, in a decade or two?

[phongn]

It's my understanding that the Self Defense Forces are semi-kosher under the pacifist, post-war constitution. While what's really proscribed is the kind of military that can operate in an offensive capacity; allowing Japan to threaten other countries. What possible, non-bad thing could they want that for?

I didn't say anything about Japan building up a military capable of power projection (which could be useful in a "non-bad" way in defending their sea lanes - Japan obviously being a maritime power). I noted that their long-term strategic planners might see a day when the US withdraws - and then Japan will need to take up the slack themselves for defense. That would require a larger military - and quite possibly one capable of striking back rather than just defending.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I didn't say anything about Japan building up a military capable of power projection (which could be useful in a "non-bad" way in defending their sea lanes - Japan obviously being a maritime power). I noted that their long-term strategic planners might see a day when the US withdraws - and then Japan will need to take up the slack themselves for defense. That would require a larger military - and quite possibly one capable of striking back rather than just defending.

Japan's navy might not be large, but militarily speaking, it is quite capable of launching its own attacks. It is by and far one of the most advanced in Asia, though the Koreans are slowly building capability. Their navy is quite comparable to the Royal Navy at the moment, minus the carriers.

What they do need though, is medium to long range bombers and perhaps an aircraft carrier or two for force projection. Though the question is whether they have the money given the shaky nature of their economy.

[Mlenk]

Though the question is whether they have the money given the shaky nature of their economy.

Don't they spend only about a percent or two of their GDP on military expenditures? Anyways, according to most sources I've read Japan's economy has been on a steady rebound ever since the 1990's, which is considered their "Lost Decade".

[phongn]

Japan's navy might not be large, but militarily speaking, it is quite capable of launching its own attacks. It is by and far one of the most advanced in Asia, though the Koreans are slowly building capability. Their navy is quite comparable to the Royal Navy at the moment, minus the carriers.

I meant that they had virtually no land-attack capability - JASDF or JMSDF.

What they do need though, is medium to long range bombers and perhaps an aircraft carrier or two for force projection. Though the question is whether they have the money given the shaky nature of their economy.

It's entirely possible that Hyūga (and any future sisters) might see F-35Bs operating off them in ten years or so. But with a GDP of over $4 trillion, they could easily afford to start building real carriers if they wished. By comparison, the RN expects to build two CVFs and the UK's GDP is about half as much as Japan's.

Don't they spend only about a percent or two of their GDP on military expenditures? Anyways, according to most sources I've read Japan's economy has been on a steady rebound ever since the 1990's, which is considered their "Lost Decade".

The CIA World Factbook says that 2006 military spending amounted to 0.8% of GDP.

[Big Orange]

I'm not so concerned on conservative Japanese looking out on self reliant security with a slightly bigger and more independent military, but I'm far more concerned about the more extreme Japanese conservatives denying everything about their country's WWII war crimes and Japan itself being very institutionally racist for a supposedly modern country.