Iran says Russia won't let US use radar for ABM

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Vympel
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Post by Vympel »

The original schedule was to conduct the first air-to-air shots in 2007 and deploy from 2009 onwards. This has now been pushed back to an initial test firing in 2009 with deployment (finances permitting) in 2012. Seven aircraft are to be built as the program is presently constituted.
I'm having trouble finding a source for the 2002 firing claim that defencetech.org repeatedly uses in its coverage, however, from 2003 chronologically:-

Aviation Week quotes the program director on a test firing against a missile in 2004:-
But during the course of the next year all those elements will have to be integrated to confront one major remaining challenge: shooting down a boosting ballistic missile over the Pacific.

What lies ahead in the coming months is expected to be a difficult engineering endeavor. Program managers recognize that they still have to overcome high hurdles, and indicate the shootdown attempt is likely going to occur in 2005, not late 2004. "It gets more and more challenging to hold to the 2004 date," notes ABL program director USAF Col. Ellen M. Pawlikowski.
AvWeek also reported back in 2004 there were rumblings about cancelling the program outright in the Pentagon, though more supported simply paring it back (as occured in 2006): "The Pentagon has already awarded Boeing a contact for design work on a second 747-400F that would be converted into a laser carrier. But the actual aircraft order may be delayed."

As I understand it, the first test was pared back from an actual shoot down to "first light". Aviation Week noted this was because of:
"One reason ABL has fallen behind schedule stems from serious problems with component quality, Aviation Week says. "Around 800 components, largely in the laser area, were rejected when they were delivered because of shoddy workmanship, complained one industry official. Others argue that many components were being built for the first time, so unanticipated problems were encountered."

A recent Congressional report on the program notes that "specialized valves have been recalled twice, laser fluid management software has been delayed due to inadequate definition of requirements, and improperly cleaned plumbing and material issues have required over 3,000 hr. of unplanned work."
First light of course did happen.

However, after first light in 2004, the price of the program basically insantly doubled to the tune of an extra $1.47 billion, according to Inside Missile Defence- and they were only "80%" sure that would
cover their costs.

As anticipated by AvWeek in 2004, this article notes the program was demoted to a demonstration project last year, with the second aircraft deferred to after the shoot-down test:-
ABL officials now are solely focused on attempting to shoot down a target missile during a test the Missile Defense Agency has scheduled for late calendar year 2008. The agency has deferred the purchase of a second aircraft and the engineering studies needed for it until after the shoot-down test, the official told reporters the day the Defense Department unveiled its fiscal year 2007 budget. MDA and lead contractor Boeing continue to develop the first prototype 747-400 aircraft that will be used in the 2008 test.

The official called ABL “a different program now” and said it is considered a demonstration project “until shoot-down, then it will be serious time.”

The Air Force began the program in 1996, setting development costs at $2.5 billion and projecting that fielding would start in 2006. But by August 2001 the service revised its estimates, saying the cost would be about 50 percent more and the schedule stretched another four years, according to a July 2002 report by the Government Accountability Office. In October 2001, the Defense Department gave program management to the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, MDA's predecessor.
And subsequent to this it was pushed to 2009.
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Stuart
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Post by Stuart »

Vympel wrote:I'm having trouble finding a source for the 2002 firing claim that defencetech.org repeatedly uses in its coverage
You won't; the program only became a procuremt issue in 2001 so expecting the aircraft to start flying and shooting a year later isn't practical. I suspect they confused the first ground shot with the laser (took place in 2004) with firing the thing from an aircraft. I looked up the site (its defensetech.org by the way) and they're pretty low-key.
Aviation Week quotes the program director on a test firing against a missile in 2004
There's a reason why that magazine got nicknamed "Aviation Leak and Space Mythology." However, having said that, it is a very good, very expert and reliable defense industry newspaper. It is, however, a newspaper.
But during the course of the next year all those elements will have to be integrated to confront one major remaining challenge: shooting down a boosting ballistic missile over the Pacific. What lies ahead in the coming months is expected to be a difficult engineering endeavor. Program managers recognize that they still have to overcome high hurdles, and indicate the shootdown attempt is likely going to occur in 2005, not late 2004. "It gets more and more challenging to hold to the 2004 date," notes ABL program director USAF Col. Ellen M. Pawlikowski.
In other words, systems integration is going to be very difficult. Precisely what I said. Not surprising, guess who I got my comment from. I talk with program directors on a daily basis.
AvWeek also reported back in 2004 there were rumblings about cancelling the program outright in the Pentagon, though more supported simply paring it back (as occured in 2006):
There are always rumblings about cancelling every program. It's a part of the budget process. There are a series of budget briefings where every service (and clique within a service) gets up and trashes everybody elses programs in order to hijack the funds for their own pet projects. The USAF is a particularly avid practitioner of that game. Budget briefings are interesting but they have to be taken with a lot of salt. Basically, if a document quoted is from a Budget Briefing, its safest to disregard it until you know exactly the context and what happened afterwards (I've know people get in a lot of trouble by taking Budget Briefing documents out of context).
"The Pentagon has already awarded Boeing a contact for design work on a second 747-400F that would be converted into a laser carrier. But the actual aircraft order may be delayed."
The big debate at the moment is whether to use a cargo-configured or a passenger-configured Boeing 747 as a base (the current aircraft is a passenger-configured bird). There's advantages and disadvantages on both sides, the freighter configured bird can carry more weight and thus a bigger laser, the passenger configured bird has better command control facilities. Also, the new-Generation 747s are one heck of an advance on the -400 series and they can be transferred to the ABL
As I understand it, the first test was pared back from an actual shoot down to "first light".
No, the intent has always been simply to do a load of functionaloty checks before attemptinga shootdown.
"One reason ABL has fallen behind schedule stems from serious problems with component quality, Aviation Week says. "Around 800 components, largely in the laser area, were rejected when they were delivered because of shoddy workmanship, complained one industry official. Others argue that many components were being built for the first time, so unanticipated problems were encountered." A recent Congressional report on the program notes that "specialized valves have been recalled twice, laser fluid management software has been delayed due to inadequate definition of requirements, and improperly cleaned plumbing and material issues have required over 3,000 hr. of unplanned work."
This isn't unusual, most new projects have this problem. The YAL-1A is something completely unprecedented in military design, we're breaking a hell of a lot of new ground and going places nobody has tried. As such, designs and specs that were thought to be adequate proved not to be so and had to be replaced, equipment that was up to spec had to be returned when teh spec was found to be inadequate. Every defense program of this scale has those problems, go back to the history of the Manhattan Engineering District and you'll see the same thing applied there.
However, after first light in 2004, the price of the program basically insantly doubled to the tune of an extra $1.47 billion, according to Inside Missile Defence- and they were only "80%" sure that would
cover their costs. As anticipated by AvWeek in 2004, notes the program was demoted to a demonstration project last year, with the second aircraft deferred to after the shoot-down test
Only running US$1.47 bilion over budget? It is doing well.
ABL officials now are solely focused on attempting to shoot down a target missile during a test the Missile Defense Agency has scheduled for late calendar year 2008. The agency has deferred the purchase of a second aircraft and the engineering studies needed for it until after the shoot-down test, the official told reporters the day the Defense Department unveiled its fiscal year 2007 budget. MDA and lead contractor Boeing continue to develop the first prototype 747-400 aircraft that will be used in the 2008 test. The official called ABL “a different program now” and said it is considered a demonstration project “until shoot-down, then it will be serious time.”
Standard procedure

Nothing you've quoted here is actually relevent to the issue of how well development on the program is going which is what Golan III and I have been pointing out. Also, these are all, at best, secondary, tertiary or quaternary "sources" (I put "sources" in marks because they aren't actually sources. They're other people's opinions and thus, at best, "authorities". A "source" is something that gives original data.) The best source for data on how a project is running is the R1/P1 listings that is original source reports from the developing agencies and project managers to Congress in support of funding requests. R1 covers research and development funding, P1 covers procurement issues. The Public (unclassified) version of R1/P1 is available form the US Government - beware, its about three feet thick. The classified version is much thicker :)
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Sea Skimmer
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Chris OFarrell wrote:
Jadeite wrote:
What about defenses against Iran's ballistic missiles?
An AEGIS ship with SM3's off the coast would probably be the best idea for taking on SRMB's and MRBM's. Along with PAC-3 patriot systems.
Iran isn't going to use ICBM's against targets that close.
An ICBM couldn't hit a target that close, the minimal range is rather large for those things. You used to be able to see a deployed Patriot firing unit on the Google earth images of Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, but in the updated images it seems it location was taken over by new construction. No doubt other firing units are still deployed to defend the base and other locations.
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Chris OFarrell
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Post by Chris OFarrell »

Sea Skimmer wrote:
Chris OFarrell wrote:
Jadeite wrote:
What about defenses against Iran's ballistic missiles?
An AEGIS ship with SM3's off the coast would probably be the best idea for taking on SRMB's and MRBM's. Along with PAC-3 patriot systems.
Iran isn't going to use ICBM's against targets that close.
An ICBM couldn't hit a target that close, the minimal range is rather large for those things.
Uh thats what I meant, oh GREAT LEADER.
But of course you knew this.
You used to be able to see a deployed Patriot firing unit on the Google earth images of Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, but in the updated images it seems it location was taken over by new construction. No doubt other firing units are still deployed to defend the base and other locations.
I remember trying to hunt around for a Russian SAM battery picture back in the early days of Google Earth before they were all bookmarked. Despite having Lat and Long down to a square klick or so, it still took me a good hour to find the damn launcher. I started to get the slightest idea how painful a life the analysts must have doing sat image analysis for a living...
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