LaCroix wrote:Let's go ahead with the thought experiment that Britain does not yield, and starts blockading all of Europe (which it pretty much would have to in order to blockade Germany) - wouldn't that cause the other nations to (tentatively) ally in order to get the "Island bullies" to back off?
Who? The rest of Europe combined is roughly as strong as UK, but dispersed on huge area, easy to meet and destroy in detail. Meanwhile, by 1918 A-H fleet lost half of its best dreadnoughts, Russian fleet effectively ceased to exist, Hochseeflotte mutinied on first mention of engaging Royal Navy, and French/Italian fleets were far too weak to beat RN. At best, it would be repeat of 1941 Mediterranean campaign.
I mean, I could even see the US siding with Germany against Britain, as Britain would deny them trade with whole Europe, which I doubt they would tolerate. Could this lead to a clash between the combined US Navy & HSF and the RN?
Chance of US/IG alliance winning this are
zero. Without major UK fuckup, anyway. US navy would need to sail thousands of kilometers to other side of ocean on relatively short ranged ships without escorts. Can you say 'torpedoed while refuelling'? Meanwhile, Hochseeflotte can't sally without being engaged and beaten back unless US navy already entered north sea which is impossible because they would need to push through completely controlled channel or sail right next to Scapa Flow first.
Bedlam wrote:If the war had stretched on any longer what effect do you think the 1918 - 1920 Flu Pandemic would have had? I would assume it would have decimated the tightly packed armies living in poor conditions.
Ironically, might affect Allies worse due to blockade on central powers and travel cut due to front. Or not, might spread as historically did, and be worse in Germany due to lack of sufficient food. Hard to say.
Thanas wrote:The Bayern compares quite well plus there is the L20 class which might or might not have been built...
In real life Germany ran out of steel and brass for even small arms production by 1918. Where the materials to finish them will come from?
Because this time the soldiers will not be told that they will go on a suicide mission where the motto will be victory or death?
That wasn't any more suicidal than Jutland. Or what land army suffered daily on the front, really. If a force that fought only one battle years prior baulks at prospect of the next, morale is pretty much gone by then.
Yes, which is why I have said they would become satellites and not annexed.
Would that even work? Germany wanted to make satellite out of Poland, too, but as 1918 rolled around population that would have accepted that in 1914 just wasn't interested anymore and uprisings and disarming German soldiers started. Same in countries occupied after Brest, would Germany be able to hold all that in 1919 with war still going on?
The only reason Britain survived that was India. For obvious reasons, the situation will not be the same.
Why not? Even if France fell, UK has really nothing to lose by staying in the war. UK was against one power dominating the continent for 200 years, what would happen now for them to suddenly accept it? Loss of Royal Navy, maybe, but without Germany suddenly inventing Haunebu it isn't going to happen.
Sure, they got plenty of cannons. Tanks are not the end all and the CAS capabilites are laughable. These are not Stukas.
The problem is, allies would start trading tanks for german infantry and artillery. Any late war battle with massed tanks ended up with much higher German losses, and tanks, unlike manpower, are pretty replaceable.
The Soviets would not be going on an offensive, especially not with the white problem not over.
By 1919 it pretty much was, and with war still going on there will be no allied intervention and Whites will be beaten that much sooner.
The same reason the leading authority on the war thinks it would happen - declining morale, no shape to counterattack and a general sense of being unable to complete any objectives.
But allies don't need to counterattack, not really. They were gaining big advantage in Balkans, and with A-H and Turkey about to collapse, they would have big victories to sell to the public and soldiers. Delaying offensive till late summer/autumn of 1918 might mean no German offensive will ever start because troops from Russia will be sent into Hungary, not France.
What are your sources for the effect it had on French morale? Were the french suddenly attacking? No. After the Nivelle offensive the French army was pretty much finished as an offensive force.
Offensive, maybe, but harsh terms meant they still hold on to defensive, which was all that needed. I would need to re-read the book, but it implied Romania and Russia were big factors in why it was 1917, not 1918 French morale and will to defend was worst.
That front only collapsed after the victory of the allies in France, which should be enough to tell you that it won't be decisive on its own.
Why not? Austria and some Hungarians might want to fight on, but Czechs, Slovaks, Poles and all Balkan peoples will to fight for Central powers was pretty much gone. That's half of A-H army right there, and with Turkey suffering string of defeats Germany is the only country that can plug that massive hole opening in the south. Especially loss of Czech republic would be bad, as it only held the majority of A-H war industry and all the rail lines linking it to Germany.
You really think Brest-Litovsk was supposed to be a permanent treaty? No way. And German officers demanding the destruction of France are to be taken as serious as the French soldiers demanding the destruction of Germany. Both loudmouths matter little.
It might not had been, but it was supremely useful propaganda tool for allies. Had Germany offered magnanimous terms, it's possible Belgium and Greece would have thrown in the towel, at least, as it was, no allied country considered surrender for next year after that, IIRC.
Also, on what you base the opinion that France would have been treated lightly, if all the defeated countries so far were pretty much broken? Post-war sources, or is there any war time plan for it?
right and they can suddenly move their heavy guns and ship them with ease because.....?
British executed several fighting withdrawals through the entire war, starting with 1914. What makes you say they would lose all equipment in 1918, when they didn't with much less experienced forces? Sure, they will be losses, but as 1940 demonstrated, even withdrawal of BEF from France won't automatically end the war. You're forgetting British would withdraw over undamaged land, when Germans would chase them over broken no man's land, on foot. This was big reason why 1918 offensive failed in real life, after all.
Can you give any WWI example where retreating army lost all of its heavy material? Serbian army was pretty much pushed out of its country, yet not destroyed doing so.
The soviet army showed itself incapable of beating the Poles even after the white threat had been all but eliminated, so I don't favor their chances against the German army.
They didn't beaten unified Polish army fighting for their country with massive French material and command reinforcements. Would German troops fighting them in occupied countries, with populace unfriendly to them all around, and depressing news from other fronts fare any better? In real life, these were the troops that were disarmed and sent packing to Germany by the same Poles, after all, pre big French support.
Also, with the war still going on, pro-communist sympathies will be stronger, and it's possible Soviets will have more troops, including German defectors, than in RL.
Allies cannot take the Balkans if France collapses.
Why not? Bulgaria (country keeping vast majority of southern war effort alive) is on the verge of collapse with big pro-communist support. Turkey is about to fall, too, and Germany committed historically big blunder and didn't let combined A-H and Bulgarian army push hard into Greece when such an effort would have defeated it, in hopes of making Greece join central powers. By 1918, the situation was unrepairable and Germans failed to stop allied counterattack in RL.
If anything, in the war goes on any longer souther front collapses even with allies doing little as 400 kilometres of occupied territory separating it from central core states will erupt in rebellions, making supplying it very hard. With Bulgarians and A-H troops in area breaking, Germany has to find reserves stopping 2 million strong allied force pushing out of Greece (sure, most of it are Balkan, badly equipped troops, but still).
The food situation will be greatly helped with available harvest workers.
Weren't best German sources of food: Ukraine (unfriendly and badly connected) and Hungary, both on the verge of rebelling? Germany can't feed itself even at peace time, adding some workers won't change that, especially seeing commitments will grow even worse with each Central-aligned country collapsing.