Re: Has McCain actually already LOST?
Posted: 2008-10-31 11:05am
I've got $25.00 that says a mysterious "bin Laden" tape shows up at a major news network sometime in the next four days. Anybody want to take me up on it?
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I match your bet. It's little talked about but they are aggressively hunting Bin Laden again(*Edit as Bush tries to salvage a legacy) forcing him to move around or go totally to ground, it might be hard for them to smuggle a tape out now.ArcturusMengsk wrote:I've got $25.00 that says a mysterious "bin Laden" tape shows up at a major news network sometime in the next four days. Anybody want to take me up on it?
So with another 4 days of early voting Obama is already banking votes to the point that McCan wouldn't just have to win late deciders but he'd need to win them by ridiculous margins.In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004's total.
It's a long shot at best for McCain. +8 is a lot of ground to make up in 3 days. Polls don't move that quickly without some sort of news event to cause a shift in momentum. Even if there is a shift in momentum, McCain would have to be gaining 2-3 points per day before he could really claim to be in a good position. That kind of momentum just doesn't happen without some sort of major event intervening. Obama would have to get himself caught with a hooker or convicted of a felony or something of that magnitude.Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Unless Obama gets caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, there's no fucking way. Turnout in Philadelphia is going to be astronomical and McCain is getting crushed in the Philly suburbs. Even if McCain had a commanding lead in the rest of the state (and he doesn't), historically, in all statewide elections in Pennsylvania, high Philadelphia turnout plus a Democratic lead in the suburbs equals a Democratic win.Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Turnout everywhere is going to astronomical. I'm not sure what exactly caused it, but the past few election cycles have seen a surge in voter turnout, which makes me happyRedImperator wrote:Unless Obama gets caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, there's no fucking way. Turnout in Philadelphia is going to be astronomical and McCain is getting crushed in the Philly suburbs. Even if McCain had a commanding lead in the rest of the state (and he doesn't), historically, in all statewide elections in Pennsylvania, high Philadelphia turnout plus a Democratic lead in the suburbs equals a Democratic win.Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Sen. Barack Obama hit key swing states Saturday, taking a jab at his GOP counterpart's endorsement by the nation's vice president.
At an event in Laramie, Wyoming, on Saturday, Vice President Dick Cheney said he will cast his ballot for the McCain-Palin ticket.
"This year, of course, I'm not on the ballot, so I am here ... not to vote for me, but I want to join daughter Liz, who is with me today, join us in casting ... our ballots for John McCain and Sarah Palin."
Obama started his day with a morning rally in Henderson, Nevada, and moved on to Pueblo, Colorado, and Springfield, Missouri.
At a rally in Pueblo, Obama lashed out at the Cheney endorsement.
"I'd like to congratulate Sen. McCain on this endorsement, because he really earned it. That endorsement didn't come easy," he said. "George Bush may be in an undisclosed location now, but Dick Cheney's out there on the campaign trail because he'd be delighted to pass the baton to John McCain."
"He knows that with John McCain, you get a twofer: George Bush's economic policy and Dick Cheney's foreign policy, Obama continued. "And that is a risk we cannot afford to take."
In a statement, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responded, "Barack Obama and Dick Cheney aren't just cousins; they've shared support for the Bush energy policy and the out-of-control spending that John McCain has fought to oppose," he said.
Earlier at a rally in Henderson, Nevada, Obama continued to defend his tax plan for the middle class -- and defended against "socialist" claims.
"The choice in this election isn't between tax cuts and no tax cuts. It's about whether you believe we should only reward wealth or we should also reward the work and the workers who give it," he said. "John McCain calls this socialistic. I call it opportunity."
Across the country, former President Clinton hit the campaign trail for Obama in Beckley, West Virginia.
Clinton defended Obama's economic policies and blasted the GOP for believing in a "top-down economy."We can't afford the wrong philosophy, and they're out there whacking on Obama, saying he's for redistribution," Clinton said. "Gimme a break, folks."
"We just had the biggest redistribution of income upwards in the last eight years since the 1920s, and we know how the 1920s ended," he added.
Sen. Joe Biden said he hoped McCain would finish the campaign with a positive tone. The Delaware senator said he doesn't remember a presidential campaign ending so viciously.
"In my view, over the last few weeks, John McCain's campaign has gone way over the top," Biden said Saturday at an outdoor rally on Evansville, Indiana's Main Street. "They are trying to take the low road to the highest office in the land. It's not only George Bush's economic policies that John McCain has bought hook, line and sinker. He's also bought Karl Rove's brand of political tactics. Watch more of Biden's take on the race »
"It is disappointing, I never thought I'd see this from a McCain campaign," Biden continued. "They're calling Barack Obama every name in the book. They are going out in a way that I don't recall it being more personally vicious."
Biden also holds events in Marion, Ohio; and Bowling Green, Ohio. Watch analysts weigh the state of the race
Biden's Republican counterpart, Gov. Sarah Palin, kicked off a bus tour of Central Florida on Saturday by focusing on the financial concerns of the nearly 3 million Floridians over the age of 65.
Palin, speaking at a rally in New Port Richey, Florida, promised that she and McCain will "keep our defining commitments to our senior citizens."
But she wasted little time on the Republican agenda and turned her sights, as usual, on Obama, who has accused McCain of wanting to cut Medicare funding and place Social Security benefits in the stock market. Watch more of Palin's comments »
"Obama goes around promising a new kind of politics, then he comes here to Florida. ... He tries to exploit the fears and worries about Social Security and Medicare to our retirees, and that's the oldest and cheapest kind of politics there is," she said.
The Alaska governor had rallies scheduled in five cities in three key states Saturday: Florida, North Carolina and Virginia
At an event Saturday in Springfield, Virginia, McCain also hit Obama hard on issues facing seniors.
"Every four years, the Democrats roll out these ads try to scare seniors over Social Security and Medicare. ... I was there when we saved Social Security under President Reagan, and I'm going to protect Social Security. I'm going to protect Medicare, and I'm not going to let this Congress tax away your retirement," McCain said. Watch more of McCain's Virginia rally »
McCain also told voters in Springfield, in northern Virginia, that the area is key to a Republican victory.
"I want to remind you again: Fairfax County is key to this election," McCain said. "You know that. You know how important it is for us to win here; you know how important it is that we put this country in the right direction. I need your help for the next three days."
A month ago, McCain's brother Joe called northern Virginia "communist country." And just two weeks ago, McCain adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer said the area wasn't even a "real" part of the state.
"I certainly agree that northern Virginia has gone more Democratic. And as a proud resident of Oakton, Virginia, I can tell you that the Democrats have just come in from the District of Columbia and moved into northern Virginia. And that's really what you see there. But the rest of the state, 'real' Virginia, if you will, I think will be very responsive to Sen. McCain's message."
Asked whether she wanted to clarify her comments, Pfotenhauer stood by them.
After Virginia, McCain traveled to Perkasie, Pennsylvania, for a rally before heading to New York for a scheduled appearance on "Saturday Night Live."
Yep, pretty terrifying. Also, the colors on Billy's costume are all wrong. Did he make it in a cave or something? With a pile of scraps?Ender wrote: Also, it appears that McCain has won the crucial "comic strip artist" vote, receiving an endorsement from Bill Keane of Family Circus
I can't think of anything scarier then Sarah Palin, can you?
So Red, have you bought that party hat yet? What's your election projection? I'd be interested in hearing it since you live where a lot of the action is and have followed things pretty tightly.RedImperator wrote:Unless Obama gets caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, there's no fucking way. Turnout in Philadelphia is going to be astronomical and McCain is getting crushed in the Philly suburbs. Even if McCain had a commanding lead in the rest of the state (and he doesn't), historically, in all statewide elections in Pennsylvania, high Philadelphia turnout plus a Democratic lead in the suburbs equals a Democratic win.Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Playing around with the Daily Kos electoral map gets me Obama 311-McCain 200 with Florida a toss-up (my guess is Florida won't come in until well after midnight, but it won't matter because Virginia and Ohio will be called hours earlier). Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Ohio.Illuminatus Primus wrote:So Red, have you bought that party hat yet? What's your election projection? I'd be interested in hearing it since you live where a lot of the action is and have followed things pretty tightly.RedImperator wrote:Unless Obama gets caught with his dick stuck in a kitten, there's no fucking way. Turnout in Philadelphia is going to be astronomical and McCain is getting crushed in the Philly suburbs. Even if McCain had a commanding lead in the rest of the state (and he doesn't), historically, in all statewide elections in Pennsylvania, high Philadelphia turnout plus a Democratic lead in the suburbs equals a Democratic win.Tribun wrote:Watching how extremely agressive McLooser is waltzing through Pennsylvania and how the polls are indeed tightening in that state (visible in every graph I could find), I honestly ask: is is really possible that he can win over the state with three days left? (for example, the Mühlberg poll is now only at O+8)
Why do you believe that to be anything what it is, a "rally-the-troops" type beagle blast?Illuminatus Primus wrote:So what is the deal with McCain releasing memos that Obama is struggling for 270 EVs and that they're actually close in PA? Are they just lying and hoping PR and give the hope and delusion will keep the GOP vote out and give them every prayer they need?