The Real Clear Politics map is fun because you can see the outcome if you move states from one column to the other. What I think should be most encouraging for Obama and scariest for McCain is that if you switch Minnesota and Wisconsin to "Leans Obama", that's 269 EVs right there,
without Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio, or even New Hampshire.
On the other hand, if all the toss-ups except Minnesota (the toss-up I feel is least likely to go for McCain) break for McCain, Obama loses by 11 EVs. Flip Michigan or Pennsylvania (extremely possible for both), and I don't see where Obama can make up the numbers. That's why I'm not partying yet. There's a very believable path to victory for McCain. I'll relax if and only if I see Obama building bulletproof leads in the Rust Belt, preferably around Halloween.
EDIT: To further emphasize what I mean, let's take the narrowest possible Obama win.
These are all the Kerry states, plus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, giving Obama 273 (the customizable map is available at DailyKos; I'm using screenshots because the only way to post it here would be using HTML).
Now watch what happens if Wisconsin flips:
McCain wins, 275-263. Worse, Nevada, the lowest-hanging swing state fruit, only brings Obama up to 268 if he flips it, and there aren't any other 3-5 EV states available. So Nevada is either useless or superfluous. If Obama loses Wisconsin, he needs to flip Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, or Florida to make it up. All of those are tougher targets than Wisconsin, where Obama had a big primary win and has been in the lead all year. Worse, you can probably safely assume whatever electoral dynamics cost Obama Wisconsin would be in play in the rest of the Rust Belt, so if he loses Wisconsin, it's unlikely he's going to make it up in Ohio or Indiana. In fact, I'm not convinced Obama will win Indiana in anything other than an EV landslide, so for the rest of these scenarios, we'll count Indiana as firmly red.
Now for a worse nightmare: Michigan flips.
Now Obama loses 282-256. He can make it up in one state only with Ohio or Florida; if he flips Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, or Missouri, he'll need Nevada too. If you stick with the assumption that a loss in one Rust Belt state indicates a weakness in all of them, his only option is to flip Florida, or some combination of Nevada and a southern state, or two southern states.
The same math applies if Pennsylvania flips.
And now the worst possible disaster:
two Rust Belt states flip.
Wisconsin and Michigan.
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. For both these scenarios, Obama will need 1) Florida, 2) Ohio and Nevada, or 3)
two southern states (Nevada is irrelevant in 1) and 3)).
But the worst calamity is this:
Pennsylvania and Michigan flip. Obama is now in a 35 EV hole (34 to tie and throw the election to the House). Even Florida isn't enough now. Obama needs 1) Florida and any other state, 2) Ohio, Nevada, and any other state, 3) all
three southern swing states.
How likely are any of these? Well, I listed them in what I think is order of probability. If Obama loses both Michigan and Pennsylvania, I'll be surprised (barring, of course, a shift in McCain's favor near election day), but the thing I have to emphasize is that all of these, I think, are
possible. There's plenty of good news in the electoral map, but there's good news for McCain, too. From where I'm sitting, Obama's first priority has to be to protect his lead in the Rust Belt; he can win without Virginia and North Carolina and even Florida, but without Michigan, he's toast. On the upside, if he flips Ohio, he's sitting pretty, and if he flips Florida, McSame is up shit creek. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of McCain flipping a Rust Belt state while Obama flips a Bush state in the south, since there are different electoral dynamics going on (in the Rust Belt, Obama is counting on working class, blue collar, older Democrats to feel the pain in their wallets more than they fear a liberal black president whose middle name is "Hussein"; in the south, McCain is trying to hold back the tide of young, wealthy, well-educated newcomers allying with Obama's black base).