[Official Thread] OBAMA WINS RE-ELECTION

[Skgoa]

so what is this I hear about Paul supporters "stealing" delegates by voting for themselves to become delegates? how can that work?

[Dalton]

Delegates are unassigned until the RNC. It is possible for faithless delegates to vote for someone other than for whom they are expected to cast their ballot.

[Block]

and supposedly a number of Paul supporters have been instructed to hang around after the caucuses to make sure they're selected as delegates in order to do just that.

[Dalton]

More on Maine... Flagg, you're not the only one.

Maine Republicans, who've set themselves up as the state's guardians of electoral integrity, held their own electoral contest last weekend. As Steve noted on Sunday, Mitt Romney won the state GOP caucus by an underwhelming three points, beating Ron Paul 39 percent to 36 percent with a margin of 194 votes. The victory gave Romney the chance to look like a winner again after a string of losses to Rick Santorum the week before.

Here comes the asterisk -- one county delayed its caucus until March because Saturday's forecast called for snow. The Maine GOP has declared a winner anyway, for now:

More in the link.

[bilateralrope]

Delegates are unassigned until the RNC. It is possible for faithless delegates to vote for someone other than for whom they are expected to cast their ballot.

If sufficient delegates do that to change who the Republican party nominates, how big of a shitstorm would that cause ?

[Dalton]

They'd probably rope a compromise candidate. Like Jeb Bush. haha

[Mr Bean]

They'd probably rope a compromise candidate. Like Jeb Bush. haha

As was pointed out on Rachel's show and I checked later, lots of state laws require only the first vote of delegates to be mandated by the popular vote. IE they come to the convention and Florida's delegates must vote for Mitt Romney on that first vote. However if no one wins the nomination on the first vote, the Florida delegates can switch their votes as they wish.

The more I look at Ron Paul's strategy of getting his campaign people elected delegates plus staying in the race to pick up delegates of his own, and I'm looking over the math and... Holy shit Ron Paul might be able to pull that off. And the reason he could is because he's Ron Paul and no one takes him seriously.

[Skgoa]

Can you elaborate on "looking over the math"? Can Paul really get the nomination that way?

[lance]

The winner needs a 50+% majority, and with how things are going now romney is going to wind up with like 40% of the votes and go to a revote, where the electorate can vote for who ever they want

[Skgoa]

Yes. That was already said. Now, can Paul actually get the nomination that way? I.e. can he get enough delegates to be in his camp?

[Gandalf]

I don't think Paul can ever get enough for the nomination. The best he can accomplish is to get others to try and get his voters by adopting the "Ron Paul message".

Ron Paul the man can't go far, but Ron Paul the brand can.

[Mr Bean]

I disagree, Paul already has over 133 delegates who are Paul supporters per the Paul campaign. That's 59% of the 225 delegates handed out. If he keeps that up he can clear the 1.1k mark easily and that's on top of actual delegate wins.

*Edit
This all assumes neither Santorum, Gingrich or Romeny gets the required 1.1k votes to win the first vote.

[Skgoa]

So might it actually be beneficial for Paul supporters to vote for Santorum or Gingrich in winner-take-all states?

[Mr Bean]

So might it actually be beneficial for Paul supporters to vote for Santorum or Gingrich in winner-take-all states?

Not only beneficial but encouraged, he can't be direct about it least he starts the rumors of dropping out again.

[Simon_Jester]

Wait, Ron Paul has a majority of the delegates handed out to date?

How is this happening, procedurally, when he hasn't won a single state? I must be confused about how this process works.

[TimothyC]

Wait, Ron Paul has a majority of the delegates handed out to date?

How is this happening, procedurally, when he hasn't won a single state? I must be confused about how this process works.

His campaign is getting people assigned to be delegates to the national convention who are supporters of Ron Paul. Most of these people are legally obligated to only vote for the person that they are supposed to based on popular vote or caucus result on the first ballot at the national convention. If no other candidate gets an outright majority on the first ballot at the republican convention this September, then these Ron Paul supporters can throw their votes behind Rep. Paul, and potentially, win him the nomination. In short, the Ron Paul Campaign is planning on gaming the system, and is betting that no one else gets half plus one of the delegates. If someone else has an outright majority on the first ballot, then there is no downside for the campaign, but if there isn't, then Ron Paul gets the GOP nomination, and the republican party falls apart in the general.

Edit: also, a lot of states have had proportional delegate apportionment so far. This means that by wracking up 10-20% in most contests so far, Rep. Paul has been picking up delegates in almost each and every contest (South Carolina and Florida were Winner-take-all, but as you can see here, there are a lot of proportional states to go. It's going to get uglier and uglier as it goes on.

[LaCroix]

Aren't the other candidates aware of this and taking steps to counter it? Or is this something that everybody has teh knee-jerk opinion of "Naw, can't happen..."

[TimothyC]

Aren't the other candidates aware of this and taking steps to counter it? Or is this something that everybody has teh knee-jerk opinion of "Naw, can't happen..."

I talked to a friend in the Ohio republican party, and he was saying that people are waking up to this, and it's generating a general "Oh shit" feeling in the party. Remember, this only happens if someone doesn't win outright on the first ballot, and the last time that happened for the GOP was in '48. In '76 Ford pulled just enough delegates in on the first ballot to avoid a second, so it's been over 35 years from the last time this could have happened, and that's a political generation. In short, no one saw this coming, but people are starting to see it now, but the Paulites have a lead on organization.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Don't now if this deserves its own thread, but a Sheriff here in Arizona left after he was Outed as gay

An Arizona sheriff resigned from a volunteer position with Mitt Romney's Arizona campaign Saturday in the face of charges that he tried to coerce his homosexual partner into silence.


An Arizona sheriff resigned from a volunteer position with Mitt Romney's Arizona campaign in the face of charges that he tried to coerce his homosexual partner into silence.Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu told reporters the allegations against him were "absolutely, completely false, except for the issues that refer to me as being gay."

"Because that's the truth. I am gay," Babeu said.

The denial and resignation came after the Phoenix New Times reported that Babeu had threatened to deport his alleged lover, a Mexican national identified only as Jose, after he had refused to sign a non-disclosure agreement covering their relationship.

Babeu, who is running for Congress as a Republican, said he did not break any laws, arguing the allegations against him were merely attempts to derail his congressional campaign.

He said he had called the Romney campaign to resign from his position as co-chair of the Arizona "Romney for President" organization.

"We support his decision," Romney spokesman Ryan Williams said in a statement.

The 'story' here such as it is, is that his partner tried to Out Babeu, who then threatened to Deport him if he came forward.

[Skgoa]

Funny, but from a moral point of view both men are equally big scumbags.

[Dalton]

That's bizarre. There is only 95% in. These cunts tell people they can't vote if they don't have a fucking picture ID and they can't even run a goddamned election.

*shrug* There are still several county caucuses to go, but I don't think they're going to matter much. However, keep in mind that no delegates are assigned until the Convention, but I don't foresee much of a change in terms of the percentage. Romney and Paul will likely earn equal amounts of delegates.

Maine held their last caucus over the weekend; Romney is still the winner.

[Mr Bean]

Arizona and Michigan are tonight and Arizona has been called based on exit polling alone which annoys the heck out of me. Shame on you Dalton and shame on your network for hating Freedom like that.

On the Michigan side Santorum is winning, now losing, now losing now winning. Every single county that comes in seems to swing it one way or another with less than 5k votes separating them with 30% in.

[Mr Bean]

And Michigan has been called for Romney but still waiting to see if he loses on delegates which is a possibility.

[Block]

Arizona and Michigan are tonight and Arizona has been called based on exit polling alone which annoys the heck out of me. Shame on you Dalton and shame on your network for hating Freedom like that.

On the Michigan side Santorum is winning, now losing, now losing now winning. Every single county that comes in seems to swing it one way or another with less than 5k votes separating them with 30% in.

I think that's pretty damning in his home state that it's so close.

[Maraxus]

I'm not. Romney hasn't lived in the state for the better part of thirty years. He was governor in Massachusetts and made a name for himself as a semi-moderate Republican governor in a Democratic East Coast state. Sure, Romney's dad was the apparently well liked governor of Michigan in the 1960's, but that was over forty years ago. I don't know how much that kind of nostalgia motivates people. Being Pat Brown's son wouldn't make me particularly motivated to vote for Governor Moonbeam if he decided to run for president again.