Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

There's also the matter that FSB (KGB was a Soviet Union organization that doesn't exist anymore) is just as corrupt as the rest of the Russian Hierarchy, to "burn the 'paper tiger'" effectively Russia would have to solve the problem that caused the paper tiger to exist in the first place and a lot of people in the Russian hierarchy have an vested interest in keeping that problem unsolved. So rebuilding the Russian military as anything then another paper tiger will most likely take quite a while.

Putin's ambitions need to be curbed but preferably with as little expansion of the current conflict as it's realistically possible.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

bilateralrope wrote: 2023-01-11 09:01am
Solauren wrote: 2023-01-11 08:29am Otherwise, if Putin remains in control of Russia, he'll just purge out anything he considers problematic, blaming them for the failure of the 'special operation', and then rebuild the Russian military. Probably under KGB level monitoring to prevent the problems it's had during the 'special operation'.

Effectively burning the 'paper tiger', and replacing it with a pride of lions.

Then, Putin will just order another invasion, but with a far better military.
The time it takes Putin to rebuild the Russian military also gives time for the countries around Russia to join NATO if they don't want to become part of Russia. It's clear now that Russia isn't going to allow anyone to take any middle ground there. The next war, if it happens, will immediately be Russia VS NATO. Not the rest of the world walking a thin line trying to support Ukraine as much as possible without actually joining the conflict.
Right now, I would be surprised if Putin can rebuild the Russian Military in less than 5 years. Personally, I'd bet closer to 10yrs before Russia has the equipment base and stockpile to invade anywhere. Then, you add in the turmoil that's going to hit when Putin's "Special Operation" loses the battle for what bits of Ukraine it's holding (maybe even losing Crimea too), and Putin may not have the time to rebuild before he's ousted.

I just keep getting the feeling this is Putin's last shot, and when it's over so is he. Hopefully when it's over, everyone currently in power in Russia will also be 'over', but that's going to be up to the Russian People.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Honestly even if Putin isn't overthrown he's 70 years old already and having to rebuild his powerbase (since to rebuild the Russian military properly he'll have to throw many of his current allies under the bus) will most likely take toll on Putin's health (both mental and physical) and there's been rumors it's not that great to begin with.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

I've been hearing those too ever since the start of the invasion but unless he keels over and drops down dead I'm not holding my breath.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Ralin »

Yup, 70 isn't that old in billionaire politician years (Trump is 76). And the man is known for being fit. Fair point about the damage from losing, but see above about how the man to all appearances has the home front locked down pretty hard. Though granted we probably won't know that's about to change until after it changes.


ray245 wrote: 2023-01-11 08:45amHey, stop fantasizing about World War 3. Gee, the western delusion of power fantasy is becoming problematic.

There's a whole Iraq War-style power fantasy that has came back with far too many westerners. The whole "let's wish for more war because I'm sitting safely in my couch at home" needs to go.

Anyone who keeps calling for the expansion of war is ultimately just a war-monger at the end of the day.
The power fantasy of fantasizing about expanding the war Putin started to actually defeating Putin and stopping him from launching another war? Because I think that's less expanding the war and more fantasizing about winning the war.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by bilateralrope »

LadyTevar wrote: 2023-01-11 11:29amRight now, I would be surprised if Putin can rebuild the Russian Military in less than 5 years. Personally, I'd bet closer to 10yrs before Russia has the equipment base and stockpile to invade anywhere. Then, you add in the turmoil that's going to hit when Putin's "Special Operation" loses the battle for what bits of Ukraine it's holding (maybe even losing Crimea too), and Putin may not have the time to rebuild before he's ousted.

I just keep getting the feeling this is Putin's last shot, and when it's over so is he. Hopefully when it's over, everyone currently in power in Russia will also be 'over', but that's going to be up to the Russian People.
But what about whoever replaces Putin ?

If they are just as much of a warmonger as Putin, then the best attempt at peace is still to get everyone in the region to pick a side between Russia and NATO. If Putin's replacement is less willing to start another war, everyone picking sides won't hurt.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

Who ever replaces/succeeds Putin (for what ever reason) wouldn't magically have fixed the issues Russia has, the problem isn't that Putin is the leader of the Russian Federation but rather that Russian hierarchy is very corrupt and because of that there's massive corruption issues at all levels of the Russian military.

Putin's replacement would not get a fresh highly trained, equipped and motivated military that's just waiting to be used, they'd inherit the wreck of the Russian military with all the issues it has currently also most people in a position to replace/succeed Putin have interest to keep the corrupt system in place for personal gain.

Be it Putin or someone else it's gonna take long time for Russia to rebuild their military to anything that really can perform better then now, if that's even possible with very drastic changes within the Russian hierarchy.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

'We've saved Europe again': Energy crisis over as UK wind blows Putin away.
Instead of rocketing this winter, natural gas prices across Europe and the UK have plunged by almost 80 percent since August, when panic set in.

Gas prices have now fallen to levels last seen before Putin launched his cruel and reckless war in Ukraine.

The evil dictator was banking on the EU giving up on Ukraine as winter gas shortages triggered power cuts across the continent, provoked social unrest and threatened to destroy German industrial output.

Yet his plan has been smashed by the mild winter in Europe, and increasingly warn weather conditions in the US and Asia as well.

This has slashed demand for energy and allowed Europe to top up its storage tanks. It means the energy crisis is drawing to a close.

Europe has also had a secret weapon in the shape of British offshore wind power.

Last autumn, Europe was terrified of a so-called Dunkelflaute. This German compound word means "dark doldrums," and energy experts use it to refer to a period that is cloudy, cold, and windless.

When that happens, wind turbines fail to turn and no energy is created. It was a real fear into in the run-up to winter, but now we have exactly the opposite weather conditions, according to Daily Telegraph commentator Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

British "wind power has come roaring back" thanks to what he calls a "reverse Dunkelflaute". "Wind in the UK reached a fresh record of 20.9 gigawatts on December 30, and it alone has generated 49 percent of this country's total electricity over the last week."

British wind is an underestimated force, and its might is steadily growing. "Zero-carbon power briefly hit 88 percent of the UK's grid supply last Wednesday, which displaces gas megawatt for megawatt."

Evans-Pritchard added: "As a result, Europe has been able to refill its gas storage at times even in mid-winter. Levels are at 91 percent in Germany, 89 percent in Belgium, 82 percent in France and 81 percent in Italy."

It is a huge blow for Putin who calculated that the winter might come to his rescue again, just as it did when Napoleon invaded in 1812 and Germany in 1941.

Not this time.

Evans-Pritchard says natural gas futures prices have fallen for next winter as well, and for the winter after that.

"The market is no longer pricing in a protracted supply crisis caused by the cut-off in Russian gas. The world has adapted remarkably well to Vladimir Putin's energy war."

He quotes Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley who estimates that gas storage levels could still be above 50 percent at the end of the winter season in late March, well above the 32 percent total seen in a typical year.

Gas prices are now at pre-invasion levels having fallen below €70 per megawatt hour.

British wind has played a key role, as our coastline is increasingly dotted with offshore power plants generating huge amounts of electricity.

This may soon be reflected in our household bills, with the average household energy bill expected to fall to around £2,700 in April. That is below the anticipated £3,000 energy cap to be introduced that month.

This will save Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government tens of billions, putting paid to "scandalously wrong" reports that the Energy Price Guarantee would cost the Treasury a staggering £150billion, Evans-Pritchard says.

This could be a real boost for the UK economy and should ease the cost of living crisis and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's painful austerity plans.

HSBC reckons UK inflation will be down to 4.5 percent towards the end of this year, helping to break the price-wage spiral and calm today's labour unrest.

Evans-Pritchard said recent alarmism has been overdone and there are now grounds for optimism. "Putin's capacity for energy blackmail is greatly devalued, and he is running out of missiles to murder Ukrainians."

Things might just be getting better, and zero carbon renewable British wind power will have played its part.
So Putin's gamble on energy prices rising as a means to keep Europe out of the war in Ukraine has failed :lol:
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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If anything, it's pushing the world towards more renewables/alternatives.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

ray245 wrote: 2023-01-11 08:45am
Solauren wrote: 2023-01-11 08:29am Quite frankly, Russia being dealt with needs to happen.

Otherwise, if Putin remains in control of Russia, he'll just purge out anything he considers problematic, blaming them for the failure of the 'special operation', and then rebuild the Russian military. Probably under KGB level monitoring to prevent the problems it's had during the 'special operation'.

Effectively burning the 'paper tiger', and replacing it with a pride of lions.

Then, Putin will just order another invasion, but with a far better military.

The Russian military needs to be ground down to just the units Putin is keeping in defensive reserve (i.e his personnel guard).

Then Russia needs to be hit, hard. Hard enough, the Russian people go 'now is our chance', and remove the last bit of the old USSR that is still around (Putin and his cronies).

I'm not to worried about it getting to the point of Nuclear Weapons being used. As previously stated, given how bad the Russian military has performed, I expect a Simpson-esque moment with Russias nuclear warhead with Putin reading them and seeing 'Best before 1981' or similar.

That, or the missiles not having fuel, or had parts stolen from them, or launch doors refusing to open, or never existed in the first place.....
Hey, stop fantasizing about World War 3. Gee, the western delusion of power fantasy is becoming problematic.

There's a whole Iraq War-style power fantasy that has came back with far too many westerners. The whole "let's wish for more war because I'm sitting safely in my couch at home" needs to go.

Anyone who keeps calling for the expansion of war is ultimately just a war-monger at the end of the day.
I have no interest in WW3. I have no interest in Russia's borders being invaded unless absolutely required. (i.e to get back Ukraine citizens that Russia turns out to be holding in camps and the like).

Quite frankly, the Ukraine taking back all it's lost territory, including Crimea, that should be enough to effectively deal with Russia.
Because Putin is going to put everything he can into holding that territory.

He's destroyed Russias offensive ability with his stupidity, now it's going to cost him most of it's defensive capability.

He does that, and he and his cronies should be removed by the rest of the Russian government. (Which could get bloody, but that's internal to them).

That happens, and their replacements should have enough issues at home to prevent them from rearming for a while (assuming the new management wants to re-arm to the point of invading another country), and give their neighbors time to prepare, join NATO, etc.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by bilateralrope »

Lord Revan wrote: 2023-01-11 02:09pm Putin's replacement would not get a fresh highly trained, equipped and motivated military that's just waiting to be used, they'd inherit the wreck of the Russian military with all the issues it has currently also most people in a position to replace/succeed Putin have interest to keep the corrupt system in place for personal gain.
I don't think there is anyone here who disagrees with that.

I'm just expecting that Putin, or whoever replaces him, will try to rebuild the Russian military until the point where they think they are ready to try another war. Maybe the Russian military is successfully rebuilt into something competent, maybe it isn't. Either way, if the Russian leader believes that it has been rebuilt, I'm expecting another war.

Unless there is stronger deterrent, like NATO membership, to discourage a war.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Ralin wrote: 2023-01-11 01:09pm The power fantasy of fantasizing about expanding the war Putin started to actually defeating Putin and stopping him from launching another war? Because I think that's less expanding the war and more fantasizing about winning the war.
It is a power fantasy because one, we know what Ukraine is doing has severely limit's Russia's ability to project any forces in the future.

Winning the war rhetoric is coming across EXACTLY like Iraq War 2 because Saddam wasn't toppled in the first Gulf War.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Solauren wrote: 2023-01-11 05:16pm I have no interest in WW3. I have no interest in Russia's borders being invaded unless absolutely required. (i.e to get back Ukraine citizens that Russia turns out to be holding in camps and the like).

Quite frankly, the Ukraine taking back all it's lost territory, including Crimea, that should be enough to effectively deal with Russia.
Because Putin is going to put everything he can into holding that territory.

He's destroyed Russias offensive ability with his stupidity, now it's going to cost him most of it's defensive capability.

He does that, and he and his cronies should be removed by the rest of the Russian government. (Which could get bloody, but that's internal to them).

That happens, and their replacements should have enough issues at home to prevent them from rearming for a while (assuming the new management wants to re-arm to the point of invading another country), and give their neighbors time to prepare, join NATO, etc.
And there's really no need to discuss about eroding Russian's future capbility for war again, because the Russian forces right now is one that has years of financing via sale of gas to Western countries.

That's cut off now, and with an effective trade embargo against Russia and all the internal problem with Russian's economy, they won't be able to build up a military that can threaten anyone again in a very, very long time.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

Seems like more cracks appearing in the system

Putin Lays Into Minister for "Fooling Around"
BBC News wrote: Russian President Vladimir Putin lost his cool during his government's first meeting of 2023, publicly telling off the trade and industry minister.

For several minutes he accused Denis Manturov of bureaucratic delays in ordering civilian and military planes.
"Too long, it is taking too long," said the Russian leader, who has never been one to hold back in criticising top officials in public.
"What are you fooling around for? When will the contracts be signed?"

The government's first meeting came on the same day that President Putin replaced his top commander in Ukraine after just three months in charge.
Gen Sergei Surovikin was appointed in October after a series of setbacks in Russia's invasion of Ukraine but he has failed to reverse the course of the war.

In an otherwise upbeat video call shown on Russian TV in which President Putin praised his ministers' handling of the economy, President Putin repeatedly interrupted Mr Manturov, as the minister detailed plans for planes, helicopters and boats.
"These 700 aircraft, including helicopters... you need to sort this out with the defence ministry... several enterprises still haven't received any orders," he complained.

Mr Manturov has been a loyal member of the Putin ministerial team since 2012, and has regularly travelled with the president on foreign and domestic visits. He was handed the task of overseeing Russia's weapons industry last summer when shortcomings had already been exposed on the battlefield.

As he explained that his ministry had launched a programme to produce helicopter engines in St Petersburg that were previously made in Ukraine, the president butted in, complaining it was all taking too long.

As the minister's public humiliation neared its end, he promised his department would do its best with its economic partners. But this was clearly not enough for an increasingly agitated president.
"No, do it within a month. Don't you understand the situation we're in? It needs to be done in a month, no later."

The televised dressing-down echoed an even more dramatic event three days before the war broke out, when Mr Putin ordered his top security figures to say whether Russia should recognise two occupied areas of eastern Ukraine as independent.

When one of his closest allies, foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin, hesitantly suggested Russia's Western partners should be given one last chance, President Putin began to interrogate him.
Mr Naryshkin stumbled over his words several times before declaring he would support the two occupied regions being brought into the Russian Federation.
Although President Putin said incorporating Ukraine's regions into Russia was not on the table, several months later that was exactly what he announced.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

It's clear that things aren't going according to plan in Russia, while I suspect this was staged to give a scapegoat to the current issues it's telling that Putin thought that a scapegoat was needed.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

They're also looking at raising the conscription age by 3 years from 27 to 30. Not that it will do them any good since they won't be able to equip or supply them.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Juubi Karakuchi »

This just in.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 62158.html
Ukraine news – live: Sunak confirms UK will provide tanks as Russia targets Kyiv
Tanks announcement comes as Russia renews air strikes on Ukraine capital Kyiv

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar, Daniel Reast

Rishi Sunak has confirmed the UK will provide Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine during a call with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The announcement comes after the US promised 50 Bradley tank-killing armoured vehicles in its biggest military assistance package for Ukraine to date.

Earlier this week, Western officials warned Ukraine would not be able to take back significant territory from Russia without an increase in fighting power – including tanks and other heavy armour.

On Saturday morning Russian missiles targeted the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in an attack aimed at hitting infrastructure facilities.

A Ukrainian regional governor has also warned that a “massive missile attack” could take place today, with reports of Russian Tupolev bombers in the air.

Meanwhile, Mr Zelensky said the battle for the salt-mining town of Soledar in the country’s Donetsk region is still ongoing contrary to Russia’s claims.

On Friday Moscow said it has taken control of the eastern town of Soledar after days of fierce fighting. Russia’s foreign ministry said that the capture would allow Russian units to cut off Ukrainian forces from the nearby and much larger town of Bakhmut.
This might be a little premature, and other sources claim only ten tanks will be sent. But the possibility has been attracting a lot of attention; since it might lead to Germany authorising Leopard-2 transfers.

In the meantime, Putin's fixation on Verdun...I mean Bakhmut continues.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by EnterpriseSovereign »

Ukraine is giving them hell:
Ukraine wipes out entire Russian military unit in Soledar with single HIMAR strike.
Ukraine took out around 25 Russian troops with a single strike after tracking a military unit to a house in Soledar. The small salt mining town has seen the fiercest fighting of the war in months. The footage of the attack raises questions about the Russian tactics after the troops were easily tracked overhead by Ukrainian forces.

In the clip, the Russian forces can be seen clearly walking along a train track in the snow-covered terrain.

The armed unit was then tracked to a building that the Russians used for shelter.

The Ukrainian forces simply blasted the house with a Himar missile, wiping out the entire building in a single strike as smoke billowed into the air afterwards.

Users on Telegram claimed that the men were Wagner Group troops.

The Ukrainian @bayraktar_1love account, which monitors the frontline, tweeted the footage.

It added: "Tracking of a Russian military unit and subsequent HIMARS/M270 strike at their location, eastern front."

The HIMAR strike comes as conflicting reports persist about the fate of Soledar.

On Friday, Russia announced that it had taken control of the salt-mining town in eastern Ukraine, in what would be a rare success for Moscow.

However, Kyiv said its troops were still holding on and counterattacking in the town, with the Ukrainian military spokesperson Serhii Cherevatyi reporting "ongoing battles".

Speaking in his nightly address on Friday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said the battle in the region continued to rage and avoided any reference to Russia's claims of control.

The fight over Soledar as well as Bakhmut in the east of Ukraine has descended into some of the bloodiest fighting of the war so far.

Andriy Yermak, head of the office of the president of Ukraine, said that Soledar is "Verdun for 21st century," referencing the longest and bloodiest battle in the first world war.

Regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said on Thursday that 559 civilians including 15 children remained in Soledar and could not be moved out.

If Russia does capture the town, victory would allow its troops to push on to the nearby city of Bakhmut, and cut off the Ukrainian forces there.

The battle, however, has also opened up a rift between regular Russian forces and the Russian Wagner paramilitary group, as they both battle to claim credit for the victory.

Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said that Wagner needed victory in Soledar "to deliver some kind of proof to declare they're better than the regular armed forces of the Russian Federation".
The Challenger 2 is unique amongst NATO tanks for still possessing a 120mm rifled gun instead of the more common smoothbore. However if the Challenger 2 has any one major claim to fame, it is the armour. Dorchester Composite is widely reputed to be the strongest armour on any main battle tank in the entire world and the encounters in Iraq definitely seemed to prove it. The Chally was known to shrug off RPG-7 attacks without even noticing, in addition to withstanding Iraqi tank fire with such little effect on the crew they had to be told by a flanking tank they had been hit. In one situation it withstood 14 RPG hits on all angles as well as a MILAN anti-tank missile to the top of the turret (generally a weak point in tank armour, at least relative to the front and sides of the turret). Another survived over 70 RPG strikes alone in one day. This is a seriously hard tank.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

Russia Struck Back:
BBC News wrote:9:30
People trapped in residential building after missile strike
A Russian missile has hit a residential building in the city of Dnipro and people are trapped under the rubble, a Ukrainian official has said.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential office, posted a picture on Telegram of a block of flats that was badly damaged by an explosion.
He said that people who were at home for the St Basil's Day holiday in Ukranie were trapped under the rubble, adding that emergency services were at the scene.

10:50
People rescued after Dnipro apartment strike - Ukrainian official
More now on the situation in Dnipro where a Russian missile hit a residential building earlier.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential office, says 15 people have been rescued from the rubble of the nine-storey block of flats in the eastern city.
He adds that at least 10 people, including two children, were injured in the strike.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

I suppose someone should tell the Russians that it's pretty damn hard to win the propaganda war (or even the actual war) when the enemy seems to target military targets, while you focus on targeting residential housing.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

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Putin faces devastating setback in Donbas as Ukraine eyes major military breakthrough.
Ukraine's army is on the brink of a major military breakthrough that could lead to the collapse of the entire Russian front in Luhansk region. Luhansk makes up one part of the highly prized Donbas - the other being Donetsk region. The Donbas was one of four territories that Russia formally and illegally annexed back in September.

But although the Russian army secured control over the entire of Luhansk last summer, they have been unable to drive the Ukrainians out of Donetsk. The past few weeks have seen intense fighting for Soledar in Donetsk region, as Putin's army continues its fierce assault on the eastern front.

The Kremlin hopes that the capture of Soledar will allow its forces to encircle Ukrainian units in Bakhmut and deliver a devastating defeat on Kyiv. The situation remains fluid in Soledar with Ukrainian forces continuing to offer pockets of resistance, according to reports.

Despite Russia's Ministry of Defence claiming victory in Soledar on Friday, a new video believed to have been shot today shows a Ukrainian flag still flying in the western part of the city.

While Putin's army has focused its attentions on Soledar and Bakhmut, Ukraine's generals have been targeting the city of Kreminna in Luhansk region and could be about to deliver a crushing blow to Putin's hopes of controlling the Donbas.

If the Kremlin loses control of Kreminna, then the Ukrainian army will be able to open a direct road to Luhansk city and the entire Russian front in the region could collapse.

Moreover, a Russian defeat in Kreminna would allow Kyiv's forces to outflank and encircle Putin's troops trying to take Soledar and Bakhmut - in effect delivering a double whammy to the Kremlin.

Oleg Zhdanov, a Ukrainian military expert, told the website obozrevatel.com that Ukraine's army was having success in storming Kreminna. He said: "We are storming Kreminna, and we are making progress.

"The loss of Kreminna is a chance of collapsing the entire [Russian]front of Luhansk Oblast. It is an opportunity for our troops to encircle the grouping near Soledar.

"We can go eastward from Kreminna to Starobelsk. This is a direct road to Luhansk." He added: "Most likely, if we liberate Kreminna, we will head for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

"Then the Bakhmut direction is also in the semicircle. If we retake Kreminna and advance further on Severodonetsk, there is a threat of encirclement of Russian troops. By the way, the Russian occupation troops have thrown into combat the best they have today - airborne units - in Kremenna area.

"They are trying to use the counter-fighting tactics there. So we attack and they attack."

Ukraine's advance on Kreminna was confirmed by Serhiy Haidai, Head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by LadyTevar »

Well well well... HERE'S something that you'd not expect:

Russia's Wagner Group commander requests Norway asylum
A former commander with the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group has claimed asylum in Norway after deserting from the mercenary outfit.

Andrey Medvedev, 26, crossed the border into Norway last Friday, where he was detained by border guards.
He is currently being held in the Oslo area where he faces charges of illegal entry to Norway, his lawyer Brynjulf Risnes told the BBC.
Mr Risnes said his client left Wagner after witnessing war crimes in Ukraine.

The Norwegian Border Guard confirmed to the BBC that a Russian man had been detained after crossing the country's 198km (123miles) long border with Russia, but said it could not comment further for "reasons of security and privacy".

Tarjei Sirma-Tellefsen, police chief of staff in the Norwegian region of Finnmark, said a man had been detained by a border patrol and said he had applied for asylum.

But the Russian human rights group Gulagu, who helped Mr Medvedev leave Russia, confirmed his identity. His escape is believed to be the first known instance of one of the group's soldiers defecting to the West.
Gulagu's founder Vladimir Osechkin told the BBC that Mr Medvedev had joined the paramilitary group in July 2022 on a four-month contract, but had deserted after witnessing a host of human rights abuses and war crimes while serving in Ukraine.
He said that Mr Medvedev is a former soldier in the Russian army and that he later served time in prison between 2017 and 2018 before joining the Wagner Group.
He was placed in charge of a Wagner division in Ukraine, where the mercenary group supplied him with around 30-40 troops every week, Mr Osechkin said.

In a video posted by Gulagu to its social media channels, Mr Medvedev said he fled Ukraine in November after being informed that the group intended to extend his contract indefinitely.

After spending two months underground in Russia, he crossed the border into Norway last week.

Mr Risnes said his client had also witnessed a host of war crimes while fighting in Ukraine, including seeing "deserters being executed" by the Wagner Group's internal security service.
"In short he felt betrayed and wanted to leave as soon as possible," Mr Risnes said.
He added that he believed Mr Medvedev had taken some evidence of war crimes with him to Norway and that he intends to share his information with groups investigating war crimes in the coming weeks.

In response to the allegations, the founder of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, confirmed that Mr Medvedev was a former Wagner soldier.
But in a press release issued by one of his companies, he said Mr Medvedev held Norwegian citizenship and had led a battalion of soldiers from the Scandinavian nation.
Mr Prigozhin also accused him of "mistreatment of prisoners" and said that his former employee was "very dangerous". Mr Risnes told the BBC that Mr Prigozhin's claims were not true.

UK officials believe the Wagner Group makes up about 10% of Russia's forces in Ukraine, and played a significant part in helping Moscow's forces take the town of Soledar in eastern Donbas region last week.
Thousands of its troops have been recruited from Russian prisons. Mr Prigozhin - a former convict himself - has promised recruits their freedom in exchange for six months service in Ukraine.

Before the invasion of Ukraine, it had only a few thousand mercenaries. Most were believed to be experienced former soldiers, including some from Russia's elite regiments and special forces.
Since 2015, it is believed to have deployed troops to Syria, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic.
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by wautd »

Mr Prigozhin also accused him of "mistreatment of prisoners" and said that his former employee was "very dangerous".
That's rich coming from the criminal who praised Wagner Group's execution by sledgehammer video.
Seriously, why isn't Wagner Group designated as a terrorist group yet?
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Lord Revan »

For all we know it has been it just not made public yet.

That said something I've been thinking is that Russia is probably gonna have a massive drug problem in their hands soon considering they're got large number of wounded soldiers at least some of which will end up addicted to pain killers (I highly doubt Russia has any programs in place to make sure veterans treated with heavy duty pain killers will not end up addicted or at least if they do that addiction is treated).
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Re: Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

Post by Solauren »

Lord Revan wrote: 2023-01-17 11:20am For all we know it has been it just not made public yet.

That said something I've been thinking is that Russia is probably gonna have a massive drug problem in their hands soon considering they're got large number of wounded soldiers at least some of which will end up addicted to pain killers (I highly doubt Russia has any programs in place to make sure veterans treated with heavy duty pain killers will not end up addicted or at least if they do that addiction is treated).
Why would Putin want them treated? With them addicted, you have another way to control them.
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