Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[LadyTevar]

The BBC has found footage that is supposedly showing an explosion at the Dam.

BBC Ukraine Updates

[madd0c0t0r2]

The BBC has found footage that is supposedly showing an explosion at the Dam.

BBC Ukraine Updates

occurred back on the 11th: sat pics here: https://twitter.com/Maxar/status/1591158455808954368

seems to be sluice gates, access over the dam, and (I suspect) back up power station control systems on the east bank.

Loss of Sluice gates means loss of control over the dam and ability to finesse power. It doesn't mean widespread flooding though.

[Solauren]

Well, it may be too early, but it looks like that Russia has retreated across the river giving up Kherson. I am waiting for the other shoe to drop though I hope it doesn't.

Pretty much everyone is expecting that, I think.

At this rate, the other shoe will drop in the form of further Russian withdrawls, mass material abandonment, and mass surrenders by Russian forces.

[Zwinmar]

Well, it may be too early, but it looks like that Russia has retreated across the river giving up Kherson. I am waiting for the other shoe to drop though I hope it doesn't.

Pretty much everyone is expecting that, I think.

At this rate, the other shoe will drop in the form of further Russian withdrawls, mass material abandonment, and mass surrenders by Russian forces.

Yeah, that is what it is looking like and the result I hope for.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Oh shit, a Russian missile landed and killed two people in Poland. Basically, Russia has to admit they fucked up if they know what's good for them.

[Crazedwraith]

Well that has the potential to escalate real fast.

[Highlord Laan]

Well, then. Hold on to your butts, 'cause this might get fucking spicy.

[Crazedwraith]

News on the BBC is that it's a type of missile both Russia (offensively) and Ukraine (defensively) use and either way it's very unlikely to be intentional fired at Poland rather than an accident.

[Broomstick]

Oh shit, a Russian missile landed and killed two people in Poland. Basically, Russia has to admit they fucked up if they know what's good for them.

If Russia knew what was good for them they wouldn't have started the goddamned war in the first place.

This could get nasty. Is there anything official from NATO, the EU, or the UN about this?

[Broomstick]

News on the BBC is that it's a type of missile both Russia (offensively) and Ukraine (defensively) use and either way it's very unlikely to be intentional fired at Poland rather than an accident.

Well, yeah, considering Russia is the largest "donor" of equipment to Ukraine that's not entirely surprising.

[Crazedwraith]

This could get nasty. Is there anything official from NATO, the EU, or the UN about this?

They're basically in fact finding mode at the moment. They're going to have to be crystal clear on what exactly happened and who's missile it was before they do anything.

[Highlord Laan]

Poland has been screaming "do it you pussy!" at Russia since March.

I don't think they'll jump the gun, but the urge to make russians scream "kurwa!" is strong.

[Solauren]

This is one of those times where Russia going 'oops, we missed, sorry about that' is actually a possibility.

[LadyTevar]

Latvia is joining the Bandwagon:

“The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense for Latvia, Artis Pabriks, claimed the missiles were Russian as well. “My condolences to our Polish brothers in arms. Criminal Russian regime fired missiles which target not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland,” Pabriks said. “Latvia fully stands with Polish friends and condemns this crime.”

[LadyTevar]

And Russia is currently in full denial.

Posted at 1507 BBC News
Russia denies any involvement in 'missile strike on Poland'
Russia has denied statements from Polish media outlets and officials that Russian missiles fell on the Polish village of Przewodó near the Ukrainian border.

The Russian ministry of defence posted on its Telegram, calling the reports "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation".

"No strikes were made against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian means of destruction," the statement said.It said missile fragments from the scene, reportedly filmed by Polish media, did not relate to Russian weapons.

[Highlord Laan]

And Russia is currently in full denial.

Posted at 1507 BBC News
Russia denies any involvement in 'missile strike on Poland'
Russia has denied statements from Polish media outlets and officials that Russian missiles fell on the Polish village of Przewodó near the Ukrainian border.

The Russian ministry of defence posted on its Telegram, calling the reports "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation".

"No strikes were made against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian means of destruction," the statement said.It said missile fragments from the scene, reportedly filmed by Polish media, did not relate to Russian weapons.

Sure, poot-poot. Sure.

Time to thin the horde.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

And Russia is currently in full denial.

Posted at 1507 BBC News
Russia denies any involvement in 'missile strike on Poland'
Russia has denied statements from Polish media outlets and officials that Russian missiles fell on the Polish village of Przewodó near the Ukrainian border.

The Russian ministry of defence posted on its Telegram, calling the reports "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation".

"No strikes were made against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian means of destruction," the statement said.It said missile fragments from the scene, reportedly filmed by Polish media, did not relate to Russian weapons.

Sure, poot-poot. Sure.

Time to thin the horde.

Isn't that the standard Russian response?
On the first day, they immediately and strongly deny they had anything to do with it.
On the second day, they say they actually hit a military target.
On the third day, they claim it was the Ukrainians all along, who bombed Poland in order to make the Russians look bad.

[Lord Revan]

And Russia is currently in full denial.

Sure, poot-poot. Sure.

Time to thin the horde.

Isn't that the standard Russian response?
On the first day, they immediately and strongly deny they had anything to do with it.
On the second day, they say they actually hit a military target.
On the third day, they claim it was the Ukrainians all along, who bombed Poland in order to make the Russians look bad.

More or less like clockwork, which is why pretty much no one buys it. I mean People's Republic of China of all places has been calling them out on their BS and that's a long-term ally of Russia.

[Lord Revan]

This is one of those times where Russia going 'oops, we missed, sorry about that' is actually a possibility.

It is though that's a damn big "oops" both geographically and politically. You'd think Russia wants to avoid hitting NATO countries at all costs, but then you'd think that Russia plans/thinks about what's it doing at all before acting and I'm not convinced that's the case.

EDIT: I think Broomstick said it the best earlier on this page when she said "If Russia knew what was good for them they wouldn't have started the goddamned war in the first place."

This whole thing seems like a collection of not thinking before acting and then trying to panic fix things when things predictably blow up in your face.

[Solauren]

This is one of those times where Russia going 'oops, we missed, sorry about that' is actually a possibility.

It is though that's a damn big "oops" both geographically and politically. You'd think Russia wants to avoid hitting NATO countries at all costs, but then you'd think that Russia plans/thinks about what's it doing at all before acting and I'm not convinced that's the case.

EDIT: I think Broomstick said it the best earlier on this page when she said "If Russia knew what was good for them they wouldn't have started the goddamned war in the first place."

This whole thing seems like a collection of not thinking before acting and then trying to panic fix things when things predictably blow up in your face.

You can always blame it on someone doing something wrong. In this case, thinking they where further from the target then they were.
It was only about 4 miles into the border, so it's at least a feasible error.

There is also the possibility that Russia is telling the truth, and the missile was instead launched by the Belarus military instead.
That wouldn't actually make that big a difference interms of possible fallout from this, but still, it's worth a brief consideration.

[bilateralrope]

Do you think the Russian government has figured out who launched it yet ?

Because I find it very unlikely that it was ordered by someone high up in the chain of command. More likely is that it a targeting error or a decision made by someone lower down.

[wautd]

For all we know so far, it might as well been a misfired Ukrainian anti air missile. Which wouldn't have been fired in the first place if Russia didn't attacked with over a hundred missile attacks on Ukraine yesterday.
Or maybe Russian troops mistook a Polish tractor for a Malaysian airliner. Who knows. Lets wait what the conclusion of the investigations will be

[madd0c0t0r2]

well in the 8 hours since you all got on your high horse, Biden has also stated 'unlikely to be a russian missile'
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... biden-says

It seems possible it was a Ukrainian interceptor missile launched at a russian missile. It also seems likely that all parties (except Ukraine) want to play down the potential 'strike on a nato member' aspect. Why wouldn't they? Russia is already losing at little risk to Nato.

[ray245]

The rhetoric from Ukraine does annoy me from time to time.

[Solauren]

Let's also face facts here.

Russia has to realize what a mistake the invasion of the Ukraine was.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, is not part of any defense pacts.

And despite all that, just material from some friendly nations is letting the Ukraine military kick the crap out of Russia's invasion.

This has resulted in the invasion being a colossal waste of money and other resources by Russia.

If Russia had managed to occupy and annex the Ukraine, it could be argued it was economically worth it. (Captured territory, infrastructure, etc).
Especially if they don't care about political fall-out.

However, the counter-offensive looks like it's going to push Russia completely out of all Ukraine territory, and territory Russia illegally claimed from them.

That's bad. That's 'regime ending' bad. Russia's loses during World War 1 contributed greatly to the cause of the February Revolution and the end of the Russian monarchy.

And Putin and the upper leadership of Russia have to realize this. They're low on resources, morale, and even their allies are telling them off.

So, the last thing they need is to add to their potential problems. Attacking a NATO country would definately do that.

Right now, the best option Russia has is to continue their withdraw back to there traditional legally recognized borders, fortify, and sue for peace.

And if one of the conditions for peace is not arguing when the Ukraine joins NATO, then let them.

Once they have that peace, the current Russian leadership might be able to save their own positions at home. But they'll need the Russian military to do that.

But attacking NATO? That will give NATO a reason to start putting boots in the ground in the Ukraine, which makes it less likely of the Russian military getting out of the Ukraine in any condition to help prop up the Russian government.

Russia is not that stupid.