SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

A good breakdown of why its important for Sanders to get as many delegates as possible to influence the party platform, and how he might be prevented from doing so under party rules:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sa ... onvention/
Primary season began back on Feb. 3 in Iowa with a competitive, multicandidate race for the Democratic presidential nomination, and some reasonable chance that the process would end with tense delegate counting at the national convention in Milwaukee. However, after a string of primary losses in March and April, Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign and former Vice President Joe Biden is now the presumptive Democratic nominee.

But that doesn’t mean that delegate counting is over. There are still 24 delayed and reconfigured contests with a combined 1,555 delegates at stake. Sure, Biden has already amassed 1,293 delegates1 and is very likely to exceed the 1,991 pledged delegates necessary to clinch the nomination. But just how many delegates Sanders can rack up matters, because that will impact the concessions he and his campaign can win from Biden and the Democratic National Committee.

Any leverage Sanders has in that back and forth with Biden and the DNC hinges on three main factors. And two could work against the Vermont senator in any talks with the Biden team.

First, Sanders stands to lose a significant number of delegates headed into the convention. According to the DNC’s 2020 delegate selection rules, any candidate who is no longer running loses the statewide delegates2 they have won and those delegates are then reallocated to candidates still in the race. (That has not necessarily been how the DNC has interpreted this rule previously, but it is how the DNC has signaled that it will use it in 2020.) Second, if Sanders fails to clear the 25 percent delegate threshold required to secure representatives on convention committees, it’ll be harder to integrate his policies into the official DNC platform.

I’ve written previously for FiveThirtyEight about delegate reallocation and what that looked like after the race became a one-on-one contest between Biden and Sanders (a bit of a wash, with Biden picking up 23 statewide delegates and Sanders 25 from the early and Super Tuesday states). But now that Sanders has suspended his campaign, the delegates he won prior to dropping out will be reallocated, meaning he could lose more than a third of his delegates — 365 statewide delegates in total.

Sanders could lose more than a third of his delegates
Number of statewide delegates allocated to Sanders, by contest

CONTEST DELEGATES
Iowa 9
New Hampshire 8
Nevada 9
South Carolina 5
Alabama 3
Arkansas 3
California 81
Colorado 13
Democrats Abroad 9
Maine 3
Massachusetts 14
Minnesota 11
North Carolina 14
Oklahoma 5
Tennessee 8
Texas 37
Utah 7
Vermont 3
Virginia 10
Idaho 3
Michigan 18
Mississippi 2
Missouri 8
North Dakota 3
Washington 15
Arizona 10
Florida 21
Illinois 21
Alaska 3
Wisconsin 9
Total 365
Sanders’s statewide delegate total includes those delegates originally allocated to him plus those reallocated to him after other candidates dropped out.

Three contests were excluded: American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands and Wyoming. In American Samoa, Sanders did not win any delegates. In the Northern Mariana Islands, delegates cannot be reallocated, so the four Sanders delegates will go to the convention uncommitted. And in Wyoming, there are no rules for how the reallocation process would work.

That matters because without those statewide delegates, it would be nearly impossible for Sanders to clear the 25 percent delegate threshold needed to secure a spot on convention committees.3
Why does a seat at the table on these committees matter? Well, the answer circles back to the concessions that Sanders, his campaign and his supporters would like to extract from the DNC and Biden. Making up 25 percent or more of the delegates on the various convention committees means that the Sanders contingent at the convention would have a seat at the table.

Sanders still doesn’t have 20 percent of all pledged delegates, but 25 percent is within his reach should he continue to clear the 15 percent threshold to qualify for delegates in the remaining contests. And if Alaska is any indication, then Sanders will be in decent shape to get there. Biden took eight delegates in the Last Frontier to Sanders’s seven. But that effort takes a hit if the Vermont senator loses more than a third of the delegates he has won to date. That would leave Sanders with just 12 percent of pledged delegates.

Here’s the thing, though: The delegate math may not actually matter all that much. The Biden campaign seems keen to avoid the mistakes of 2016. They have already moved toward Sanders’s position on a number of issues, like expanding Medicare and student loan forgiveness programs, and have even floated letting Sanders keep his statewide delegates, rather than have them reallocated to Biden.

Party unity — or at least the appearance of it — is at a premium for Democrats, and the Sanders campaign knows this. It’s this third factor that Sanders’s leverage hinges on, and arguably, it’s the one that could work best to his advantage.

It is still a delicate dance for Sanders, though, as the rules as they currently stand could cost him. Treated like the other candidates who won delegates but then withdrew, Sanders would lose a seat at the table, so the next move is Biden’s.
It is not only unethical, but frankly stupid for the DNC to apply the rules in this way. It marginalizes the progressive wing, makes the pleas for unity ring very hollow, and gives Bernie or Bust another pretext to scream "Rigged Primary!' and walk. It risks undermining every bit of work Obama, Biden, and Bernie have done for party unity.

To his credit, I will note that Biden has reportedly intervened and urged the party to allow Sanders to keep some or all of his state-wide delegates.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Straha »

More contemporaneous, though circumstantial, evidence comes up regarding Tara Reade:


The Intercept wrote: A NEW PIECE of evidence has emerged buttressing the credibility of Tara Reade’s claim that she told her mother about allegations of sexual harassment and assault related to her former boss, then-Sen. Joe Biden. Biden, through a spokesperson, has denied the allegations. Reade has claimed to various media outlets, including The Intercept, that she told her mother, a close friend, and her brother about both the harassment and, to varying degrees of detail, the assault at the time. Her brother, Collin Moulton, and her friend, who has asked to remain anonymous, both confirmed that they heard about the allegations from Reade at the time. Reade’s mother died in 2016, but both her brother and friend also confirmed Reade had told her mother, and that her mother, a longtime feminist and activist, urged her to go to the police.

In interviews with The Intercept, Reade also mentioned that her mother had made a phone call to “Larry King Live” on CNN, during which she made reference to her daughter’s experience on Capitol Hill. Reade told The Intercept that her mother called in asking for advice after Reade, then in her 20s, left Biden’s office. “I remember it being an anonymous call and her saying my daughter was sexually harassed and retaliated against and fired, where can she go for help? I was mortified,” Reade told me.

Reade couldn’t remember the date or the year of the phone call, and King didn’t include the names of callers on his show. I was unable to find the call, but mentioned it in an interview with Katie Halper, the podcast host who first aired Reade’s allegation. After the podcast aired, a listener managed to find the call and sent it to The Intercept.

On August 11, 1993, King aired a program titled, “Washington: The Cruelest City on Earth?” Toward the end of the program, he introduces a caller dialing in from San Luis Obispo, California. Congressional records list August 1993 as Reade’s last month of employment with Biden’s Senate office, and, according to property records, Reade’s mother, Jeanette Altimus, was living in San Luis Obispo County. Here is the transcript of the beginning of the call:

KING: San Luis Obispo, California, hello.

CALLER: Yes, hello. I’m wondering what a staffer would do besides go to the press in Washington? My daughter has just left there, after working for a prominent senator, and could not get through with her problems at all, and the only thing she could have done was go to the press, and she chose not to do it out of respect for him.

KING: In other words, she had a story to tell but, out of respect for the person she worked for, she didn’t tell it?

CALLER: That’s true.

King’s panel of guests offered no suggestions, and instead the conversation veered into a discussion of whether any of the men on set would leak damaging personal information about a rival to the press.

Reade, after being read the transcript of the call, said that it gelled with her memory of it, and that she was sure it was her mother, despite the audio not yet being available.

There are several notable things about the emergence of the call. On the one hand, the caller does not specifically mention “sexual harassment” or retaliation, as Reade had recalled. On the other hand, the reference to being unable to “get through with her problems” aligns with Reade’s claim that she complained to superiors in Biden’s office and got nowhere, and the reference to going to the press makes clear that the caller is talking about more than just generic problems at the office. The problems, she makes clear, would damage the senator if exposed.

Reade’s inability to remember the exact date of the alleged assault, or its precise location, or the precise location of the office where she picked up the form needed to file a complaint, has been used by skeptics to suggest the allegation is fabricated. What the emergence of the call shows is that even if Reade’s memory is off on timing or details, the substance of her claims — in this case, that her mother called Larry King and discussed her situation — can still be true.

The call also calls into question the credibility of Biden’s denial. Reade said that she filed a complaint about Biden’s harassment with Marianne Baker, effectively the office manager in the Biden office. The Biden campaign released a statement from Baker, which said that neither Reade nor any other employee had ever complained about improper behavior. “In all my years working for Senator Biden, I never once witnessed, or heard of, or received, any reports of inappropriate conduct, period — not from Ms. Reade, not from anyone,” Baker said in the campaign’s statement. “These clearly false allegations are in complete contradiction to both the inner workings of our Senate office and to the man I know and worked so closely with for almost two decades.”

For Baker’s statement to be true, Reade would have had to have lied to her friend, brother, and mother about having complained to Biden’s office. There is no obvious reason Reade would make up a story to those closest to her about the Senate office not taking Biden’s harassment seriously, while at the same time resisting pressure to go to the press.

Reade has said that the complaint she filed was related to the harassment she said she faced, and did not address the assault. The complaint was left with Biden’s office, and if it still exists, is with Biden’s papers at the University of Delaware. The school recently told reporter Rich McHugh that the papers are sealed until two years after Biden leaves public life.

The harassment Reade first went public with last year involves stroking her neck and running his fingers through the curls in her hair, as well as asking her to effectively serve as a cocktail waitress at an event.

Reade’s assault allegation, which became public last month, involves an interaction in the spring of 1993. She said that she was sent by her manager to bring a gym bag to Biden, and they met in a hallway of the Russell Senate Office Building, in a tucked away corner. Before she knew it, he pressed her up against the wall, forcibly kissed her, and put a hand each up her blouse and skirt, penetrating her with his fingers. She had what she recalls now as an “absurd” thought. “I remember thinking, where’s the gym bag? Because he had taken it in his hand, but all of a sudden it wasn’t in his hands and his hands were where they weren’t supposed to be,” she said.

Reade said that her impression was that Biden believed he had consent, and was surprised at the rejection, but that she had done nothing to give him that impression. “There was no flirtation, he had no consent. He was by my ears when he said, ‘Do you wanna go somewhere else?’” She pushed him off and he stepped back, looking surprised, she recalled, and flashing a huge smile.

“‘Come on, man,’” she said he told her. “‘I heard you liked me.’”

“He had that smile he gets, but his eyes were not smiling,” she said.

“You’re fine,” she recalled he said, grabbing her by her shoulders. As he walked away, he pointed back, “You’re fine.”
Interestingly, it brings up a simple thing Biden could do to help clear his name: unseal the documents being held in his archive.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

All documents should absolutely be unsealed.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by bilateralrope »

Straha wrote: 2020-04-24 11:55am "No, but this time we really do need the sexual assaulter to be able to do the job."
That's what you get when the choice is down to two sexual assaulters.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

More corroboration of the Tara Reade story: what may be footage of her mother calling in to Larry King Live in 1993 has emerged, which indicates that her mother was aware of the accusations back then. So if it was an attempt to frame Biden, she would have had to carefully lay the groundwork and then sit on it for over twenty five years.

The Washington Post has also confirmed another element of her story, specifically that her responsibilities working for Biden changed near the time of the alleged assault.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04 ... biden.html
Tara Reade’s mother may have called in to the Larry King Show to discuss problems her daughter had experienced while working for “a prominent senator,” the Intercept reported on Friday. Reade has accused former Vice-President Joe Biden, the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, of sexually assaulting her when she worked for his Senate office. The Intercept report, which includes a partial transcript of the call in question, provides new corroborative evidence for Reade’s story.

In the call, a woman asks King, “what a staffer would do besides go to the press in Washington?” Her daughter, she added, “has just left there, after working for a prominent senator, and could not get through with her problems at all, and the only thing she could have done was go to the press, and she chose not to do it out of respect for him.”

Though the Intercept story doesn’t confirm that the Larry King caller was indeed Reade’s mother, some biographical details do match up. The caller and Reade’s mother, who died in 2016, lived in San Luis Obispo County in August 1993, and Reade would have just left Biden’s office around the time of the call. Reade told the Intercept in previous interviews that her mother had called into the Larry King Show, though she couldn’t recall the date.

Hours after the Intercept published its report, the conservative Media Research Group published a clip of the episode in question; Reade confirmed to Holly Otterbein of Politico that she could hear her mother’s voice.

Tara Reade told me this is her mother's voice. https://t.co/7ymN6Pj55m

— Holly Otterbein (@hollyotterbein) April 24, 2020
The right wing Media Research Center posted this video not long after I posted the transcript, which means they were sitting on it, waiting, and this was coming out whether The Intercept broke it or not.. https://t.co/bbwYkPmYEy

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) April 24, 2020
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Reade has said that in 1993, Biden pushed her up against a wall in the Senate complex, kissed her, and then digitally penetrated her underneath her skirt. In 2019, she told reporters that the former vice president had touched her neck and ran his fingers through her hair on several occasions, which made her one of over a half dozen women to say that Biden had kissed or touched them in ways that made them uncomfortable.

Through representatives, Biden has consistently denied assaulting Reade, and it is generally difficult for journalists to prove that a sexual assault definitively occurred. Deficiencies in the criminal-justice system and the fear and stigma associated with public identification as a victim of sexual abuse can also prevent a person from reporting an attack to the police, let alone the press. But key aspects of Reade’s account — namely, that she told friends and relatives about the incident — have proven true. The New York Times previously confirmed that Reade told a friend about the attack when it allegedly occurred. “Another friend and a brother of Ms. Reade’s said she told them over the years about a traumatic sexual incident involving Mr. Biden,” the Times reported.

The Washington Post confirmed another Reade claim: that her professional responsibilities changed around the time of the alleged assault. Reade initially oversaw internships in Biden’s Senate office. But two former interns “recalled that Reade abruptly stopped overseeing them in April — just a few weeks after the interns arrived — but neither was aware of the circumstances that led to her departure,” the Post found.

This post has been updated as new information became available.
CNN has been covering it in-depth on air this morning. Who knows, maybe things will get bad enough to force him to drop out after all. I'm not holding my breath though.

I think a lot of blame has to go to major media outlets here, as well. Why didn't they corroborate this months ago, back when it would have been more likely to make a difference to the outcome of the primary? Did it simply take this long for investigation to uncover these facts? Or did people sit on it until Sanders was safely out of the way and Biden was the presumptive nominee, and only then come forward with it?
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Omega18 »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-04-25 01:52pm More corroboration of the Tara Reade story: what may be footage of her mother calling in to Larry King Live in 1993 has emerged, which indicates that her mother was aware of the accusations back then. So if it was an attempt to frame Biden, she would have had to carefully lay the groundwork and then sit on it for over twenty five years.
It should be emphasized again, which the original article did note to be fair, that the individual in question said nothing about what the actual complaint about the Senator and his office was. (In other words it could have been a completely different topic.) It also in no way really proves the newer version of Tara Reade's story to be true. One other scenario which still fits would be the April 2019 version of the story is true and any complaint was about that, but not the newer version with the more severe accusation.

Edit: One other point I have seen brought up is not bringing the accusation up publicly out of "respect" for the Senator as the caller asserted was the reason would seem more surprising if the most recent version of Reade's accusation was true. Admittedly there are ways to explain it including this is all a secondhand summary of the situation (assuming it is Reade's mom) and people sometimes react in various ways to such a situation, but this does factor in why this still certainly has limitations as far as evidence is concerned.

As a practical matter with the papers, due to COVID-19 access to them would presumably be severely limited regardless due to University of Delaware procedures right now. Because evidence here here would involve the absence of a document as opposed to necessarily providing a copy of one document, it also would not necessarily be straightforward for an archive to make the material quickly accessible. I can say with my experience with archival collections that part of the issue of making it accessible could actually involve the privacy of completely unrelated individuals and what correspondence they may have sent to the Senator's office for example and involve processing that could take some time and likely has not occurred yet. (With a related complication that all the archivists may be staying home due to COVID-19 right now.) Biden might also be concerned that allowing too much access would allow individuals to find completely unrelated documents to the topic in question that could be embarrassing to Biden and his campaign. Having said all this, if viable I would support Biden making the relevant part of his papers publicly accessible at this point.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Starglider »

Here is an excellent argument why anyone opposing further wealth concentration in the US (to pick just one worthy cause) should not vote for Biden (abridged quote):
Jim Kavanagh wrote:Here we go again. Now that Bernie Sanders has completed his predictable circuit of loss and capitulation, leftists—those who stand for socialist and anti-imperialist, or even serious social-democratic and antiwar, politics—again confront the quadrennial quandary: Must one vote for the thoroughly neo-liberal and imperialist Democratic presidential nominee? Not just because Bernie—and, more importantly, Bernie’s agenda—is out of the picture, but because of the way he was taken out of the picture by the Democrats, the situation of extraordinary crisis in which it happened, and the horrible-on-every-level leading man the party settled on, 2020 has given us a gloriously clear version of a Hobson’s choice. I won’t be voting for Joe Biden. Here’s why, and here’s what I make of the arguments why I should vote Biden no matter what, a corollary of Vote Blue No Matter Who (VBNMW).

The basis of the VBNMW argument is that there is a decisive, dispositive, ethico-political difference in kind between the Democratic and Republican parties. In this line of thinking, the Democratic Party as an institution, and/or its nominee personally is, or wants to be, a force for progressive change on behalf of working people, and the Republican Party is the primary institution obstructing such change.

2020 has certainly left that argument in tatters.

We all know now what the Republican Party stands for. Its purpose is to advance the interests of capital against the interests of the working class. ... And the Democratic Party? Does it, in contrast, advance the interests of working people against the predations of capital? This pretense has been barely breathing since the last crisis, when the Democratic tribune of the working middle-class, Barack Obama, bailed out the banks, allowed the 1% to soak up most of the wealth, and left the working class to rot in the social devastation of the cool new gig economy. Even the supposedly not “working-“ but “middle-”class is now driving from their six-figure debt palaces in their five-figure debt chariots to queue up for bags of “welfare” food.

In that context, this primary season, the party... launched a full-spectrum offensive against the softest of social-democratic campaigns, led by Bernie Sanders. With its coronation of Joe Biden as its nominee, and Bernie’s own always-already given capitulation, the party has dispelled any lingering aroma of an FDR-style soft welfare-state legacy that it had long-since snuffed out. The Democratic Party has again—and finally, I hope—revealed itself to be an intractable enemy of the working class, the main obstacle of any serious program of the left, and a dedicated tool of the dictatorship of the ruling class.

Yes, the main obstacle. Given the demographics and the state of the social economy, the Republican Party... could not stop any social-democratic policy that a real opposition party and press representing working people’s interests wanted to enact. Those policies are not stopped by the opposition of the Republican Party. They are stopped by the opposition within the Democratic Party, which takes them in its false embrace, to co-opt and kill them. As it just did with Medicare-for-All.

Really, register this: The principal immediate goal of the Democratic Party in this primary (and when I say “Democratic Party” I always include “its allied media”), in the midst of a pandemic, was to kill single-payer healthcare, the most basically humanistic and politically advantageous social policy—indeed, as the present pandemic makes clear, the most obvious social necessity—one can imagine. The Party strangled it, and smothered any other such initiative, by coalescing around Joe Biden, who has vowed to veto Medicare-for-All even if it passes congress, has long sought to cut Social Security, and promises his billionaire donors that, if he’s elected, “nothing will fundamentally change.” No Republicans necessary.

We won’t even mention the principled difference between the two parties regarding U.S. imperialism (or whatever else you want to call it: militarism, American exceptionalism, regime-change wars, “foreign policy”), because nobody even pretends anymore that there is one. Furthermore, there is no longer the facade of personal charisma that distinguished Obama, and identity correctness that distinguished him and Hillary from Republican opponents, and inspired a lot of energetic support among Democratic constituencies. Joe Biden is arguably at least as much of a racist, sexist, liar, and war-monger, and more incoherent and cognitively impaired than Donald Trump.

...

So, 2020 has shown clearly that there is no affirmative case for Joe Biden or the Democratic Party. There is, at best, a case for sympathizing with the sincere left-progressive actors—many of whom understand all this, and themselves feel trapped within and fighting against it, because they are afraid to leave. Indeed, the best—at least most honest—arguments are from those who acknowledge how horrible—not trivially “problematic,” but unequivocally horrible from a left perspective the Democrats and their candidates are. A couple of very clear versions of that position can be found in articles from Daniel Ellsberg and my friend Tom Gallagher. Ellsberg put it perfectly:

“”Supporting Biden? Me?!
“I lose no opportunity publicly… to identify Biden as a tool of Wall Street, .. someone who’s launched an unconstitutional war… “Would you call that support?“…
“I don’t ‘support Biden.’ I oppose the current Republican Party.”

And my friend Tom Gallagher wrote a forthrightly-titled article: “Vote for the War Criminal – It’s Important!” He acknowledges that it’s “fair” to say their “military policies would ultimately turn out to be essentially the same,” and asks, pointedly: “So if we were to consider Biden as he really is, that is, among other things, a war criminal, how can we even vote for him, much less argue that it’s important to do so?”

For both of them, of course, the answer to that question was that Trump would be worse, at least on domestic policy. As Gallagher says “on domestic policies there are clear opportunities” for making a choice. Per Ellsberg, Trump would be “much worse, even catastrophically worse, on a number of other important issues:…Supreme Court appointments, the economy, women’s reproductive rights, health coverage, safety net, climate change, green energy, the environment” than Biden. [Ellsberg’s italics]

Oops, those Ellsberg and Gallagher quotes are from articles they wrote in 2012 about Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. I changed the names to highlight the point: No matter who the candidates of the two parties are, and no matter how bad the Democrat is, the Republican is always “catastrophically worse”—mainly because of alleged differences on domestic policy. And the person insisting on the catastrophic necessity to vote for the acknowledged criminal Democrat always assures us that, as a real critical leftist, s/he will absolutely, positively, pinky swear, continue, as Ellsberg promised, to “lose no opportunity publicly… to identify [Tweedledee Democrat] as a tool of Wall Street,” war criminal, etc.

Maybe you’re thinking, “But Trump! He’s Hitler. I read it in The Nation. And Bernie says he’s ‘the most dangerous president in the modern history of this country.’ He’s so much worse than Romney. And so much worser than Biden, than Romney was than Obama.” Really? But wasn’t it easy to think the above quotes were talking about Biden and Trump? Looking back, does anybody think the difference between Obama and Romney—now a “moved to tears” hero of the Democratic #Resistance!—was “catastrophic,” or much of a difference at all? And when did Bush—he of the million-casualty war—get demoted from arguably the most dangerous modern president to Michelle’s and Ellen’s best bud?

Please consider that it’s the same line they trot out every four years, jacked up this year to Hitler level because it’s got to be worse than, and you need to forget, the previous overstatements. The Democrats have spent the last four years focusing all your attention on demonizing Donald Trump as a Nazi-Russian agent, rather than analyzing the structural problems of U.S. capitalism that produced him, precisely in order to get you to accept that line for Election 2020. But this time, like every time before, it really is different? Abusive relationship, anyone?

The two signature Democratic-legacy safety-net programs, Social Security and Medicare? Did I mention Joe Biden? Hasn’t he been bragging about trying to cut them for decades? Didn’t Obama and he try to cut Social Security with their Grand Bargain? What about the devastating priority concern for Americans today, healthcare? Didn’t Obama, with a veto-proof Democratic Congress and Senate, institute Mitt Romney’s plan for that? Didn’t that Obama-Romney plan become, as it was intended to be, an impediment to real single-payer healthcare? Hasn’t Biden promised to continue using it as a blocking substitute for Medicare-for-All?

...

And don’t forget, domestic issues only! To browbeat leftists, invoking the specter of Hitler, that it’s “our high moral and political responsibility” to vote for the Democrat, we have to put aside both Joe Biden’s war-mongering history and disposition, and the now-banal observation of such analysts as Ajamu Baraka, Glenn Greenwald, and Robert Parry, that the Democratic Party, which impeached Trump for not sending deadly weapons quickly enough to actual Hitlerite fascists (whom Biden helped bring to power!), is “now the aggressive war party.” That’s excluded from the calculus of our high moral responsibility.


Let’s also consider how honest the I-know-how-bad-he-is pundits can be about their promise never to let up on, “to lose no opportunity” to make their thoroughgoing left critique of the war criminal and Wall Street tool they are insisting we must vote for. Pundits like the old SDS’ers who wrote the appeal in The Nation, and who also “think ‘endorsing’ [their scare quotes] Joe Biden is a step too far,” and just want to “work hard to elect him.”

...

From now until November, the must-vote-for-Biden folks are going to have to convince enough of those disillusioned people in enough swing states not to stay home or vote for a third party that really does support their positions on important issues, but to go out and vote for Joe Biden to save us from the fascist apocalypse. In trying to fulfill that moral imperative, will they really “lose no opportunity publicly” to say: “Joe Biden is indeed an imperialist, functionary of finance capital, sexual harasser, compulsive liar, and cognitively challenged.” Or will they take the tack some on the VBNMW “left” took about Obama, telling the “rancid sector of the far left” to “please stop your grousing!” and shut up and vote for Biden?

As it has to be. You can’t really “work hard to elect” Joe Biden and avoid unironically endorsing him. Once you decide you have to choose sides in the two-horse American electoral race, because “the very existence of American democracy is in jeopardy,” you cannot continually acknowledge to enraged Bernie supporters and other leftists what a dog your nag is. If you do, you will not get enough of their votes, you will lose, and American democracy—whatever that is, “You know, the thing”—will come crashing down. To prevent that from happening, your fellow travellers on the Biden bus will discipline you. They will browbeat you to fall back to focusing on the apocalyptic evil of the Republican and to hide or avoid the truth about your terrible-in-his-own-right Democrat, because the truth hurts your cause.

...

I do not accept the substitution of unpolitical lesser-evilism with absolute evilism, which is exactly what the invocation of Hitler is. It’s not I who is demanding purity; it’s they who are assuming it.

Particularly annoying is the “If you don’t vote for Biden, you’re voting for Trump” line, which hides a number of logical and ethico-political flaws. Sure, there’s a logic to that in our zero-sum electoral system, where any third possibility is effectively excluded. That logic is also, indisputably, reversible (as Caitlin Johnstone has pointed out in a trenchant way): If not voting for Biden means actually voting for Trump, then not voting for Trump means actually voting for Biden. Either way you put it, it’s just re-stating the obvious: The guy who gets the most votes wins.

...

So, The Democratic Party is not a party of the left. The idea that there’s any natural connection between the left and the Democratic Party, or that someone on the left is a Democrat or should be expected to vote for a Democrat, by default is—well, a figment of the MSNBC bubble universe. In any given circumstance, a leftist decides whom to vote for, or whether to participate at all in a corrupt capitalist electoral system, not based on their assumed Democratic identity, but based on an analysis of whether and how it will advance working-class power. A leftist does not betray their position by not voting for or supporting a Democrat; they betray their position by voting for or supporting an enemy of the working class.

As a leftist, I’m pleased to count myself among the majority of voters who are equally independent from, and tendentially dismissive of, both the Democratic and Republican parties, and owe no allegiance or vote to either. And when you tell me Biden will lose if he gets fewer votes than Trump, my response, too, is: “Thanks for spelling that out for me. What else you got?”


There’s another signature rhetorical maneuver of the “If you don’t vote for Biden, you’re voting for Trump” cohort (especially the “even though we all know how bad he is” group) that reprises a classic liberal concern for shedding and assigning guilt in a way that I find particularly deceptive and offensive. I refer to the surreptitious elision of political and moralizing discourses, a perceptible shift from a “political” register when they talk about whom they are voting for, to a “moralizing” register when they talk about whom you are not voting for: “Me, renowned leftist, a Biden supporter? I’m not supporting him (or any of the terrible things I acknowledge he has done and will continue to do), I’m just voting for him. But, you, if you don’t vote for Biden, are complicit in and responsible for all the horrible things the other guy, whom you didn’t vote for, may do.”

It’s an attempt to attenuate their complicity with Biden’s likely terrible policies by describing their act of voting for him in terms of political realism, only then to adopt a moralizing discourse that hangs responsibility for Trump’s possible future actions on voters who did not vote for him. They’re trying to shame people for what they are not voting for, while minimizing responsibility for what they are. Nice try, but you can’t make the indirect, negative choice more moralistically consequent than the direct, positive one. The most direct line of complicity is from the voter to the candidate s/he votes for.

...

And, of course, this is not just a matter of time, but of principle. Ethico-politically, everyone has, and should have, a line they won’t cross, a deal-breaker. For any leftist of any kind, there is some issue that would immediately stop them cold from voting for a Democratic candidate who held it. VBNMW implicitly has its deal-breaker: being a Republican. But that’s a hollow criterion that cannot hold, even for those who promote it. At some point, in some instance, the question “Don’t you prefer the better to the worse?” dissolves in the face of: “Are you really good with that?”

The difference between me and Bernie, Noam, and The Nation’s SDS’ers is that they find no deal-breaking that in Joe Biden, in the Democratic Party, or in the electoral system itself, while I find a slew. (Gotta wonder what it would take.)

Indeed, for me and many others, not just a certain number of his policies but the whole of Joe Biden’s/the Democratic Party’s policy paradigm is a deal-breaker. But let’s pick just one. Let’s go with the one highlighted by Thomas J. Adams and Cedric Johnson in a brilliant article:

“If this catastrophe makes one thing clear it’s that at this moment the most meaningful divide in US political life is between those actively working toward single-payer health care and those unwilling to embrace it.”

This real catastrophe we are living through has made it glaringly obvious that healthcare as a human right, not a commodity or perk of employment—universal, single-payer, free at point of service—is, ethically and politically, a minimal, indispensable demand. It’s a policy that was settled decades ago in every other advanced country in the world. It’s a program against which there are no arguments except the need to preserve the profit-making prerogative of private health insurance companies. Even the “How are you going to pay for it” argument has now evaporated in the light of a $4.5 trillion bailout!

It’s also a program that would virtually guarantee an election victory for any candidate or party that embraced it and really fought for it fiercely. It’s a program that Donald Trump and the Republicans could not stop—if there were an opposition party with a leadership and an allied media that enthusiastically explained and promoted it, that would ferociously demand of any opponent: Name the person who should be afraid to go the hospital to treat their coronavirus or their cancer. Name the parents who should be afraid to take their child to the doctor because they can’t afford it—for a single day, for lack of a single nickel. And if you don’t name your own child or yourself, then sit right the fuck down.

I have zero tolerance for any more evasive bullshit about this issue. Every argument and hesitation against single-payer is an excuse and a hypocrisy. Opposing it at this point is gratuitous cruelty to the people on behalf of the insurance companies. As far as I’m concerned, any and all of the candidates and parties who don’t support it—and certainly Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, which have made a point of setting themselves against it—deserve no leftist’s political support or vote. Anyone who urges voting for a candidate or party that does not support this, and will not challenge that party or candidate directly, constantly, and as pointedly as suggested above, is a silent shill and has no claim to be acting as a critical leftist.

...

That’s a deal-breaker for me. One of them. If it’s not a deal-breaker for you, if you think, rather, that it’s important to work on getting those votes for Joe, so be it. But if you try to tell me I’m betraying my “high moral and political responsibility” because that shit I will not eat, I’ll tell you to sit right down.

My summary response to the argument that leftists have some political or moral imperative to vote for the Democrat: You got nothing.
Voting for the democrats at this point is tangibly worse than not voting at all. You are an enabler for the sham. The only possible reason would be if moderately better environmental policy was of overriding importance but even there better off holding out for a Democratic party that isn't beholden to the exact same legacy-industrial donors (just with 80% more greenwashing).
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Omega18 »

Voting for the democrats at this point is tangibly worse than not voting at all. You are an enabler for the sham. The only possible reason would be if moderately better environmental policy was of overriding importance but even there better off holding out for a Democratic party that isn't beholden to the exact same legacy-industrial donors (just with 80% more greenwashing).
On the other hand you could behave vaguely rationally and vote for the Democrat while trying to move the party leftward down ballot...

The fact of the matter is flat single payer for example was simply never plausibly in the cards for 2021 given the realistic composition of the Senate. Anything a Bernie Sanders was going to propose also had to actually pass Congress to have a real impact.

If we had a different political system voting differently in the Presidential election or the like might make more sense, but in ours the reality is Trump winning would be viewed as a vindication of his politics and if anything likely move the Democratic Party more to the right.

Now depending on your personal position you might be personally fine with Trump getting re-elected and hope down the line a new Democratic Party would emerge that reflects your values better, but the question is how many vulnerable people are going to suffer in the meantime? (Not to mention if might be too late on issues like climate change at that point and we might be stuck with a extreme conservative dominated Supreme Court for decades by then.)
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Starglider »

The key question is, if the democrats fail miserably in this election, losing the youth vote in particular, will they finally run someone who does support single payer healthcare (but hopefully not a lot of SJW identitarian bullshit) next time? I admitt I don't have enough of a feel for Democratic party politics to know either way.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by aerius »

Starglider wrote: 2020-04-25 08:25pm The key question is, if the democrats fail miserably in this election, losing the youth vote in particular, will they finally run someone who does support single payer healthcare (but hopefully not a lot of SJW identitarian bullshit) next time?
Probably about as likely as getting pregnant from anal sex.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Starglider »

aerius wrote: 2020-04-25 08:34pm
Starglider wrote: 2020-04-25 08:25pm The key question is, if the democrats fail miserably in this election, losing the youth vote in particular, will they finally run someone who does support single payer healthcare (but hopefully not a lot of SJW identitarian bullshit) next time?
Probably about as likely as getting pregnant from anal sex.
Right but that is directly caused by Democratic voters being more willing to compromise their principles than Republican ones. In a simple two party system like the US, Hotelling's law is in effect: if voter behaviour was just to vote for the party closest to their principles, then the two parties would adopt positions marginally different from each other, right in the center of the spectrum of voter preferences. Equivalent to two ice cream shops opening on a beach, each maximises customers by setting up right next to each other in the middle, even though that isn't a minimal solution for how far people should walk. However in reality there is obviously a sensitivity to how far people are willing to walk to get an ice cream at all, which means that for a sufficiently large beach eventually the shops will space out to capture more total customer base. On the political spectrum, if the right-wing voters are unwilling to 'walk as far' (ideologically) to vote for their party as the left-wing voters, then the Republicans are compelled to move right to restore equilibrium. This then compels the Democrats to move right as well to maximise voting share. This is a very simple model of course, but it is essentially what happened with the Tea Party and the libertarians, constitution party; statistically the right wing voters are more willing to jump ship to a (hopeless) third party and thus the Republicans were pulled right. The democrats basically assumed their voters would vote for them regardless of their position, as long as it was notionally slightly to the left of the Republicans, so they moved right as well. All other things being equal this would have been a net vote share increase for the Democrats, as prophesied by endless 'the Republican party is finnished' editorials back in the early 2010s. However the nonlinear effects of the electoral college mechanism, more reliable turnout of older voters (who are more right wing) and with Hillary some evidence that the left-wing voting base isn't willing to eat quite as much shit as the democratic party assumed, meant that this hasn't panned out as expected.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Crossroads Inc. »

In summary...
When Republicans loose, they say “we weren’t conservative enough” and move to the right...
When Democrats loose, they say “we were TOO Liberal” and... Move to the right...
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Starglider wrote: 2020-04-25 08:25pm The key question is, if the democrats fail miserably in this election, losing the youth vote in particular, will they finally run someone who does support single payer healthcare (but hopefully not a lot of SJW identitarian bullshit) next time? I admitt I don't have enough of a feel for Democratic party politics to know either way.
Oh, yes, I remember the Bernie or Busters using this argument from 2016.

"Let Trump win, because it'll teach the Dems a lesson, everyone will see how right we were, and we'll get a progressive in 2020."

Yeah, how did that work out?

This idea fails on several grounds:

1. It is based on a massive assumption (that if Trump wins, we'll get the nominee we want in four years) which we have no way of proving and which evidence thus far has not born out.

2. It requires throwing the safety, basic rights, and indeed lives of millions of people under the bus, treating them as "acceptable collateral damage" to get the nominee we want. It is, therefore, a position of deep callousness and privilege.

3. It assumes there will still be free elections in four years if Trump gets another term.

But then, the fact that you're whinging about "SJWs" makes it pretty clear (if it wasn't already) what side you're really on. And that's the final reason not to take this idea seriously: a lot of the people pushing it are clearly not actual progressives, don't want progressives to win, and are simply trying to get progressives to self-destruct. Don't take strategy advice from your enemies.
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"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Crossroads Inc. wrote: 2020-04-26 02:09am In summary...
When Republicans loose, they say “we weren’t conservative enough” and move to the right...
When Democrats loose, they say “we were TOO Liberal” and... Move to the right...
The Democrats are slowly, slowly curing themselves of that habit (Biden has actually been moving steadily left, not right, since securing the nomination, and I fully believe that if the Boomers were taken out of the equation we'd have a progressive nominee). But that has been the historical pattern, yes.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Biden is facing more pressure to adopt support for Medicare for All, after new polling shows almost 90% of Democrats now support it:

https://commondreams.org/news/2020/04/2 ... -no-longer
A new poll showing nearly 90 percent approval among Democratic voters for Medicare for All has stirred fresh calls for Joe Biden, the party's presumptive nominee, to end his outdated opposition to the healthcare solution that would cover all Americans at less overall cost than the current, more wasteful for-profit system.

Arriving amid the coronavirus pandemic that has thrust the nation into a public health emergency and triggered a nearly unprecedented economic calamity in the U.S., the Hill-HarrisX survey released Friday showed overall voter support for Medicare for All 69 percent but that number soared to 88 percent for registered Democrats. Among independents, voters likely to be crucial in the 2020 general election, support now sits at 68 percent while even among Republicans sits at 46 percent.

Speaking to Hill.TV on the findings, Felicia Wong, president and CEO of the left-leaning Roosevelt Institute, said that the coronavirus has opened people's eyes even further to the need for a universal, single-payer healthcare system like Medicare for All. "These progressive policies have been popular for a long time," Wong said. "I think COVID-19 will make them more popular as it becomes clear just how fragile our American political economy really is."

The latest figures led to calls for Biden to drop his stubborn opposition to Medicare for All and join with the majority of Democratic voters and the American people who now recognize it as a necessary solution to the nation's healthcare woes.

"Hey, ⁦Joe Biden, ⁩ as a Democrat running for president in a pandemic, this looks like a popular idea," said Michael Lighty, a health policy expert and advocate, pointing at the poll.

Dear @JoeBiden:

69% of ALL voters now support #MedicareForAll, including 68% of Independents & 88% of Democrats.

It’s no longer a tenable position for you to oppose Medicare For All & be the Democratic nominee.

It’s time for you to put the people first. https://t.co/iUE4H6Qllw

— Ryan Knight (@ProudResister) April 25, 2020
Earlier this month Biden put forth a proposal to drop the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 down to 60 as an apparent effort to win over supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders, who suspended his presidential bid a week earlier. But critics, as Common Dreams reported, immediately said the plan does nothing to address the fundamental failures of the corporate-driven healthcare system that often ties coverage to employment, leaves tens of millions uninsured or underinsured, and leads to spiraling costs.

In new reporting by Politico, meanwhile, progressive advocacy groups like MoveOn.org confirmed they are going to make pushing Biden to the left on healthcare is going to be a focus amid the ongoing coronavirus crisis and through the general election season.

"Obviously the pandemic, with both its health and economic impacts, has become the top issue that everyone is talking about," Dan Kalik, MoveOn's senior political adviser, told Politico. "It's all-encompassing. It's impacting every aspect of our lives. It's the key issue we're working on, and it's going to be an issue through November."

While Julian Brave Noisecat of the progressive think tank Data for Progress said his group's general belief is " that the quote unquote establishment is going to tell the left to f--k off on Medicare for All," other Democrats aligned with the Sanders wing of the party believe there is still opportunity to move Biden and others in leadership.

Medicare For All WILL be on the Democratic party platform this year
https://t.co/fJDMtIjMiw

— Healthcare-NOW! (@HCNow) April 25, 2020
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and lead sponsor of The Medicare for All Act of 2019 in the U.S. House, said she has no illusions about who Biden is on the issue but that progressives would be pressuring him nonetheless. "I'd be fooling myself if I thought Joe Biden would embrace Medicare for All," Jayapal said. "But I do think there's room for him to move much more than he has so far."

Appearing on MSNBC with Ali Velshi on Saturday morning, Sanders said that he also believes Biden can be pushed to embrace something closer to his vision of complete Medicare for All. Specifically, Sanders said the former Vice President could support lowering the Medicare age to 55 as well as making all children under the age of 18 eligible would be "some of the things that Joe Biden can do without embracing a full Medicare for All concept."

According to The Hill, their online poll with HarrisX surveyed 958 registered voters between April 19 and 20 and has margin of error of +/- 3.17 percentage points.
Yeah, I think Biden needs to do this if he's serious about winning. Yes, winning over moderates and Never Trumpers matters. No, I don't think the hard core Bernie or Busters will all suddenly support him because he says he backs Medicare for All. But this election is going to be decided at least as much by turning out our own voters as by winning over undecideds on the Center Right, and given how hard turning out is going to be for a lot of people, especially with the pandemic and Republican voter restriction laws, anything that makes the base a bit more enthusiastic, a bit more motivated to turn out no matter what, is going to help. There is no single issue which will excite progressives more than Medicare for All, and it has near-universal support in the Democratic Party.

Winning over voters on the Center Right should not be more important to the Democratic nominee than the views of 90% of their own party. One of the arguments given for supporting Biden is that, while he may not be a progressive leader, he can be counted on to reflect the views of his party. But he is clearly not reflecting the views of his party on this issue, and he needs to start doing so.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders' legal team has sent a letter to the New York election officials protesting Sanders' possible removal from the primary ballot. Note that this is NOT something requested by either Biden or the DNC- it appears to be something that Cuomo is trying to push through the retroactive application of some vague new legislation:

https://commondreams.org/news/2020/04/2 ... rk-primary#
The legal team representing Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign expressed opposition on Sunday to New York election officials' possible decision to remove the Vermont senator from the state's presidential primary ballot, a ploy that has angered progressives eager to help Sanders accumulate as many delegates as possible ahead of the Democratic National Convention.

With a vote on whether to remove Sanders from the ballot expected Monday, Sanders attorney Michael Seymour wrote in a letter (pdf) to the New York State Board of Elections—first obtained by HuffPost—that "Senator Sanders wishes to remain on the ballot, and is concerned that his removal from the ballot would undermine efforts to unify the Democratic Party in advance of the general election."

The New York primary is scheduled to take place on June 23.

"His involuntary erasure from the ballot, on grounds of a law that was not in effect when he announced his campaign's limited suspension, would sow needless strife and distrust, impeding Senator Sanders' efforts to unify the Democratic Party in advance of November elections."
—Michael Seymour, Sanders campaign attorney
Though Sanders suspended his presidential campaign on April 8, Seymour noted, Senator Sanders has not "officially terminated his candidacy with the Federal Election Commission" and has explicitly voiced his desire to "remain on the ballot in upcoming primaries, gather delegates, and attend the Democratic National Convention, with an eye to influencing the party's platform."

"His involuntary erasure from the ballot, on grounds of a law that was not in effect when he announced his campaign's limited suspension, would sow needless strife and distrust, impeding Senator Sanders' efforts to unify the Democratic Party in advance of November elections," Seymour wrote.

The law to which Seymour referred is a budget measure signed by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on April 13 that contains a provision empowering the state's Board of Elections to remove from the ballot candidates who have ended their presidential campaigns.

The language of the provision indicates that New York election officials have discretion to determine whether a candidate should be removed from the ballot: "The state board of elections may determine... that the candidate is no longer eligible and omit said candidate from the ballot."

As HuffPost reported, Board of Elections co-chair Douglas Kellner, a Democrat, "interprets that language to mean they're effectively required to remove Sanders."

Commissioner Andrew Spano, also a Democrat, has "expressed ambivalence... weighing the inconvenience to county governments against the desire of Sanders supporters for a 'voice at the convention,'" HuffPost noted.

To remove Sanders from the presidential primary ballot, both officials must agree to do so.

Seymour warned in his letter Sunday that Sanders' removal from the ballot would "undermine the Democratic Party's interest in self-governance and unification."

"Senator Sanders has complied with the state party's Delegate Selection Plan and with the national party's Delegate Selection Rules," said Seymour. "The party's rules do not permit, much less require, his involuntary removal from the ballot because of a public announcement of campaign suspension."

Read the full letter:

Dear Sirs:

Our firm serves as outside counsel to the 2020 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders (the "Campaign"). We understand that the Campaign will not have an opportunity to present at tomorrow's meeting of Commissioners to determine whether Senator Sanders will remain on the ballot for the June 23, 2020 Presidential Primary (the "Primary"). In lieu of our live participation, we respectfully submit this letter for your consideration, and to document the Senator's position on the official record: Senator Sanders wishes to remain on the ballot, and is concerned that his removal from the ballot would undermine efforts to unify the Democratic Party in advance of the general election.

Senator Sanders has duly qualified for placement on the Primary ballot as a candidate for the Democratic nomination to the office of President of the United States. To get him on the ballot, the Campaign mobilized a vast network of volunteer circulators across New York's 27 congressional districts, gathering nearly 60,000 signatures for Senator Sanders and his 184 authorized pledged delegates. Before and after the petitioning process, the Campaign worked tirelessly in New York to conduct voter outreach and organizing initiatives. On April 8, 2020, Senator Sanders announced the limited suspension of his presidential campaign, emphasizing that he intended to remain on the ballot in upcoming primaries, gather delegates, and attend the Democratic National Convention, with an eye to influencing the party's platform. Unlike most of the other major candidates who have conceded in this year's Democratic primary, Senator Sanders has not officially terminated his candidacy with the Federal Election Commission.

On April 13, 2020, five days after announcing the suspension of his campaign, Senator Sanders endorsed Vice President Joe Biden, the likely Democratic nominee. Vice President Biden welcomed Senator Sanders's announcement, his endorsement, and his plan to continue collecting delegates for purposes of the Convention. In statements to the press, one Biden campaign official confirmed, "[w]e feel strongly that it is in the best interest of the party to ensure that the Sanders campaign receives statewide delegates to reflect the work that they have done to contribute to the movement that will beat Donald Trump this fall." It was also on April 13 that Governor Cuomo signed into law Senate Bill S7506B, an omnibus appropriations bill that added the following provision to the New York Election Law:

Notwithstanding any inconsistent provision of law to the contrary, prior to forty-five days before the actual date of a presidential primary election, if a candidate for office of the president of the United States who is otherwise eligible to appear on the presidential primary ballot to provide for the election of delegates to a national party convention or a national party conference in any presidential election year, publicly announces that they are no longer seeking the nomination for the office of president of the United States, or if the candidate publicly announces that they are terminating or suspending their campaign, or if the candidate sends a letter to the state board of elections indicating they no longer wish to appear on the ballot, the state board of elections may determine by such date that the candidate is no longer eligible and omit said candidate from the ballot; provided, however, that for any candidate of a major political party, such determination shall be solely made by the commissioners of the state board of elections who have been appointed on the recommendation of such political party or the legislative leaders of such political party, and no other commissioner of the state board of elections shall participate in such determination.

N.Y. Election Law § 2-122-A(13) (emphasis added). Several features of this new law warrant further discussion.

First, the law authorizes the Commissioners to remove a presidential candidate from the Primary ballot only if she or he "is otherwise eligible to appear" on that ballot. To the extent the Board is contemplating Senator Sanders' removal from the Primary ballot under this provision, it is acknowledging that he has satisfied all other requirements, and is "otherwise eligible" to appear on the ballot.

Second, the law is written in the present tense: it applies "if the candidate publicly announces," and not "if the candidate has publicly announced." This is significant because conduct-regulating statutes such as this one are presumed not to apply retroactively unless the legislature clearly signals that they should reach past conduct:

[A]pplication of a new statute to conduct that has already occurred may, but does not necessarily, have 'retroactive' effect upsetting reliance interests and triggering fundamental concerns about fairness. . . . A statute has retroactive effect if ‘it would impair rights a party possessed when he acted, increase a party's liability for past conduct, or impose new duties with respect to transactions already completed,’ thus impacting ‘substantive’ rights. . . .

In light of these concerns, "t takes a clear expression of the legislative purpose ... to justify a retroactive application" of a statute, which "assures that [the legislative body] itself has affirmatively considered the potential unfairness of retroactive application and determined that it is an acceptable price to pay for the countervailing benefits." . . . The expression of intent must be sufficient to show that the Legislature contemplated the retroactive impact on substantive rights and intended that extraordinary result. Even within the same legislation, language may be sufficiently clear to effectuate application of some amendments to cases arising from past conduct but not others with more severe retroactive effect.

Regina Metropolitan Co., LLC v. New York State Division of Housing and Community Renewal, -- N.E. 3d ---, 2020 WL 1557900, at *10-11 (N.Y., April 2, 2020) (quoting Landgraf v. USI Film Prods., 511 U.S. 244, 144 S.Ct. 1483, 128 L.Ed.2d 229 (U.S. 1994); Gleason v. Gleason, 26 N.Y.2d 28, 36 (N.Y. 1970)) (internal citations omitted).

The retroactive application of § 2-122-A(13) would severely impact Senator Sanders’ core substantive rights. Invoking this provision against him would subject him to the prospect of involuntary ballot removal, notwithstanding his publicly stated desire to remain a candidate, and his satisfaction of all legal prerequisites for ballot access. Because of the severity of this potential deprivation, the presumption against retroactive application must operate with maximum force.

Section 2-122-A(13) was not on the books when Senator Sanders announced the partial suspension of his campaign. He had no opportunity conform his conduct (by exploring alternatives to formal "suspension") to avoid adverse application of this new provision. The presumption against retroactive application dictates that, if the legislature truly intends to deprive a candidate of political rights by surprise and without prior notice, it must clearly say so. Because the statute here does not clearly state that it applies to announcements made before the law’s passage, the presumption is not overcome. The law should not be interpreted to apply to announcements made prior to April 13.

Third, the statute confers discretion on the Board to determine whether, under the circumstances of a particular candidacy, ballot removal is in fact appropriate. The legislature would not have given the Board this discretion if the legislature had not anticipated that situations would arise in which a candidate’s removal would be improper. This is clearly one such situation – Senator Sanders has publicly stated that he wishes to remain a candidate and has formally objected to his removal. Neither Vice President Biden, nor the New York State Democratic Party, nor the Democratic National Committee has asked the Board to dishonor the Senator’s wishes. Nobody wants Senator Sanders removed from the ballot. His involuntary erasure from the ballot, on grounds of a law that was not in effect when he announced his campaign's limited suspension, would sow needless strife and distrust, impeding Senator Sanders' efforts to unify the Democratic Party in advance of November elections.

Fourth, by entrusting this decision to the two Commissioners appointed at the recommendation of the New York State Democrats, the statute acknowledges the centrality of the party's prerogative to this determination. Primary elections were the creations of the parties themselves, they continue to operate by rules left largely to the design of the parties, and they exist to serve the parties’ interests in self-governance.

Removing Senator Sanders from the ballot would undermine the Democratic Party’s interest in self-governance and unification. Senator Sanders has complied with the state party's Delegate Selection Plan and with the national party's Delegate Selection Rules. The party's rules do not permit, much less require, his involuntary removal from the ballot because of a public announcement of campaign suspension. Nor has the party itself requested his removal.

Senator Sanders has collaborated with state parties, the national party and the Biden campaign, to strengthen the Democrats by aligning the party's progressive and moderate wings. His removal from the ballot would hamper those efforts, to the detriment of the party in the general election. The Board should exercise its discretion to avoid such interference.

Senator Sanders respectfully requests that the Board either: (1) determine as a matter of law that § 2-122-A does not apply to announcements of campaign suspension made prior to April 13, 2020, the date of the law's enactment; or (2) exercise its discretion to keep Senator Sanders on the Primary ballot, in the interest of party unification.


Yeah, applying this law in this way is pretty clearly bullshit, and while I'm not a lawyer, it sounds to me like Sanders would have excellent grounds to challenge it in court if they go forward.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

What Sanders is pushing for on health care:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -for-biden
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) outlined steps Joe Biden can take on health care that he says would be popular as the former vice president prioritizes uniting the Democratic Party ahead of the general election.

Sanders, a vocal progressive and advocate for “Medicare for All,” recognized that Biden, a centrist, is unlikely to adopt a single-payer system. However, he said decreasing the age to qualify for Medicare from 65 to 55 and expanding coverage for children would be positive steps.

“My best outcome is to go forward in the direction of Medicare for All but not do it perhaps as quickly as I would want,” Sanders said on MSNBC on Saturday.

“At least what we should do is lower the eligibility of Medicare from 65 to 55 and cover all of the children in this country. And then we can figure out ways that we can expand and improve the [Affordable Care Act]," he continued. "Those are some of the things Joe Biden can do without embracing a full Medicare for All concept.”

Sanders made Medicare for All one of the cornerstones of his failed presidential bid, thrusting an idea once unpopular deeper into the mainstream and making the policy a priority among progressives.

Biden has offered overtures to liberals since Sanders dropped out of the race and he all but clinched the nomination, including proposing dropping the age to qualify for Medicare from 65 to 60 and unveiling a plan to cancel some student debt.

While Biden still faces an uphill climb among Sanders’s most arduous supporters, some of whom have vowed to not support the former vice president, Sanders said the steps he proposed could gain support.

“If Joe Biden said tomorrow that every American 55 years of age or older would be eligible for Medicare, I think that would be enormously popular and an enormously effective policy program,” Sanders said.

Despite disagreements over Medicare for All, Sanders gave a full-throated endorsement to Biden earlier this month.

“We need you in the White House. I will do all that I can to see that that happens, Joe,” Sanders told Biden during a virtual event on the coronavirus. “Today, I am asking all Americans — I'm asking every Democrat, I'm asking every independent, I'm asking a lot of Republicans — to come together in this campaign to support your candidacy, which I endorse.”
There is no good reason for Biden not to continue shifting on this issue- the pandemic even gives him the perfect excuse to reevaluate his past position without it being "flip-flopping" or pandering.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Coop D'etat »

The thing about Medicare for All tends to poll much worse when the voters hear what it actually is. Its a successful slogan, not a widely held policy belief.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Soontir C'boath »

Bolded mine.

This is bullshit especially when we should be getting a mail-in ballot which is an easy way to reduce turnout without stopping people from voting! Also, voters shouldn't intentionally be discouraged to come out to vote when there are still state and local elections to vote for. Those matter too!
Miami Herald wrote:In an unprecedented move, New York has canceled its Democratic presidential primary originally scheduled for June 23 amid the coronavirus epidemic.

The Democratic members of the State’s Board of Elections voted Monday to nix the primary. New York will still hold its congressional and state-level primaries on June 23.

New York Democratic Party chair Jay Jacobs has said that the cancellation of the state’s presidential primary would mean a lower expected turnout and a reduced need for polling places.

“It just makes so much sense given the extraordinary nature of the challenge,” Jacobs said last week.Local election officials and voting groups have called on the state to use federal funds to purchase cleaning supplies and protective gear, and boost staff ahead of 2020 elections.

Both the state’s Democratic Party and Gov. Andrew Cuomo have said they didn’t ask election commissioners to make the change, which is allowed thanks to a little-known provision in the recently passed state budget that allows the New York board of elections to remove names of any candidates who have suspended or terminated their campaign from the ballot.

The decision to cancel a Democratic primary is left up to Democratic state election commissioners.

Former Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders announced earlier this month that he had suspended his campaign.In a Sunday letter, a lawyer for the Sanders campaign asked the commissioners not to cancel the primary.

“Senator Sanders has collaborated with state parties, the national party and the Biden campaign, to strengthen the Democrats by aligning the party’s progressive and moderate wings. His removal from the ballot would hamper those efforts, to the detriment of the party in the general election,” the lawyer, Malcolm Seymour, wrote in a letter obtained by The Wall Street Journal.

New York voters can now choose to vote with an absentee ballot in the June primaries under a Cuomo executive order that adds the risk of acquiring COVID-19 as a reason to vote absentee. Cuomo also recently announced the state is sending mail-in ballots to voters.

Jacobs has said it’s a significant change but that the party’s ready.

“It’s a big process for us. We don’t have many weeks to get it into place before the primary,” Jacobs said. “It’s going to be difficult to execute but we’re going to do it.”
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Disgusting, and self-destructive.

There's little legitimate public health argument for such a drastic step, since they've already decided to move to mail ballots and are holding the state and Congressional primaries. They appear to have passed this law (which does not actually require them to take this step), then applied it retroactively, for the sole purpose of illegally denying Sanders any delegates from the state of New York, and potentially denying his supporters a voice in the convention and the party platform (Sanders needs 25% of delegates to get representation on committees at the convention, and without any New York delegates that will be much harder to achieve, since he may also lose a chunk of his delegates under DNC rules after suspending his campaign).

As noted by Sanders' lawyers, neither Biden nor the DNC asked for this. This is a blatant power grab by Cuomo/the New York election commission. But that won't stop Bernie or Busters, Trump, and the Kremlin from trumpeting it as proof of a rigged primary to keep progressives home or voting third party, and it will also likely be used for Whataboutism to defend Republicans' own voter supression efforts in the general.

Sanders should sue the New York election commissioners/State of New York immediately. Hell, the DNC should sue, because this decision directly hurts their chances of uniting the party in the general election.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

In other news, Bernie Sanders' campaign will cover its staff's health care through October:

https://axios.com/bernie-sanders-campai ... ec3a9.html
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

And I just realized New York basically just gave Republicans a precedent to cite to try to justify cancelling elections "because of coronavirus".

I take back every positive thing I ever said about Cuomo.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

They haven't just canceled the Presidential primary in New York- they've cancelled the whole thing:

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/202 ... 9-outbreak
New York is canceling its primary because none of the races on the June 23 ballot are contested.

The cancellation comes after at least a dozen states, including New York, postponed their primaries or moved to mail-in-only voting because of the coronavirus pandemic.

New York is the first state to cancel its primary altogether.

The state Board of Elections on Monday removed candidates who are no longer seeking the presidency.

Democratic candidate Joe Biden has virtually sewn up the presidential nomination as the last of his rivals, Bernie Sanders, dropped out earlier this month.

The state was initially slated to hold its primary on April 28 that but was postponed until June 23 by Governor Andrew Cuomo in late March.

New York state sends 320 delegates to the Democratic nominating convention. David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee, said New York’s allocation of delegates will need to be approved by the party.

“Any substantive change to a state’s first determining step in allocating delegates like this one will need to be reviewed by the DNC’s Rules and By-Laws Committee,” Bergstein said. “Once the state party submits an updated selection plan on how they plan on allocating delegates, the committee will look at that plan and make a determination.”

New York has been the state hardest hit in the U.S. by Covid-19 with 288,045 confirmed cases as of Monday and 22,376 deaths -- triple that of New Jersey, the state which has seen the second most fatalities and cases.

At least 10 people in Wisconsin contracted the virus after voting in the state’s primary election earlier this month that was held despite attempts to postpone it by the governor.

The Associated Press first reported the cancellation.

(Adds DNC comment in seventh, eighth paragraphs
So, maybe they're not just targeting Sanders. But they are giving Republicans a precedent to point to when they try to cancel elections, and then scream "Both Sides!"

Also, they were all uncontested? Really? That's pathetic.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Dalton »

The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-04-27 01:52pm And I just realized New York basically just gave Republicans a precedent to cite to try to justify cancelling elections "because of coronavirus".

I take back every positive thing I ever said about Cuomo.
They were already cancelling primaries, purely to silence opposition to King Asshole.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Dalton wrote: 2020-04-27 03:00pm
The Romulan Republic wrote: 2020-04-27 01:52pm And I just realized New York basically just gave Republicans a precedent to cite to try to justify cancelling elections "because of coronavirus".

I take back every positive thing I ever said about Cuomo.
They were already cancelling primaries, purely to silence opposition to King Asshole.
Indeed they were. But now they've been handed a high-profile bit of Whataboutism to use to defend suspending votes (the Democrats did it too, Both Sides, they're just as bad, that makes it okay when we do it), and that New York is the first to use coronavirus as an excuse for cancelling a statewide vote.

Both those precedents bode ill for future elections.
"I know its easy to be defeatist here because nothing has seemingly reigned Trump in so far. But I will say this: every asshole succeeds until finally, they don't. Again, 18 months before he resigned, Nixon had a sky-high approval rating of 67%. Harvey Weinstein was winning Oscars until one day, he definitely wasn't."-John Oliver

"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan."-General Von Clauswitz, describing my opinion of Bernie or Busters and third partiers in a nutshell.

I SUPPORT A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE.
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Re: SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

Post by Soontir C'boath »

Cuomo has also cut the Medicaid budget and rolled back needed criminal justice reform recently.

He was the reason why the IDC existed in the first place preventing liberal policies from being passed in the state. He's always been a piece of shit.

Also, that Bloomberg article seems to be misleading. Every other publication states it's just the Presidential primary cancelled.
I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season."
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