Brexit and General UK politics thread

[Eternal_Freedom]

To quote Blackadder: "...our exclusive exit poll, which gives a 100% response for "Mind your own business you nosy bastard.""

[Rhadamantus]

If those exit polls are right, a parliament hung by Sinn Fein might just happen.
Consider:
Conservatives: 314

Labour: 266

SNP: 34

Lib Dems: 14

Plaid Cymru: 3

Greens: 1

Ukip: 0

Others: 18

Assuming Ireland stays the same, Con+DUP+UUP is 324 seats. Lab+Lib+Plaid+Green+SDLP+1 independent=322. And 4 for Sinn Fein.

[streetad]

That result being borne out would probably lead to another election in Autumn as It's hard to see how anyone could form a functioning government.

It would also probably put paid to Scottish Independence for the time being as the SNP would have got an even bigger kicking than the Tories...

[Dartzap]

Sinn Fein holding the union together! Oh.The.Irony

[Vendetta]

I'm in a super safe Labour seat, so my actual vote is minimal.

Still voted Labour though, first time I've done so, was Lib Dem before they chucked all their principles under the bus for a half assed electoral reform referendum (though last time I voted Green, which was basically a protest vote because they were the only ones with an anti-austerity manifesto in 2015. Not because I expected anything since, as noted, super safe Labour seat where the incumbent got almost as much as the next two put together)

[streetad]

That result being borne out would probably lead to another election in Autumn as It's hard to see how anyone could form a functioning government.

It would also probably put paid to Scottish Independence for the time being as the SNP would have got an even bigger kicking than the Tories...

[Vendetta]

That result being borne out would probably lead to another election in Autumn as It's hard to see how anyone could form a functioning government.

It would also probably put paid to Scottish Independence for the time being as the SNP would have got an even bigger kicking than the Tories...

IndyRef2 is an odd thing. The more the Tories win, the more likely it is because everyone else wants a positive relationship with Europe that will preserve most of the things that Scottish people want from it, and the power to actually hold the referendum lies with Holyrood not Westminster.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

If the exit polls are any indication, Theresa May is going to look mightily stupid if the Tories get the kicking this suggests. The Conservative leadership has always been a poisoned chalice, and if it turns out she's lost the election then she's going to go the way of David Cameron.

[Vendetta]

May'll feel a tory knife in her back no matter what. She could win that 74 seat majority the last Ashcroft poll indicated and the fact that this campaign made her look like a complete tool on literally every issue guarantees she'll be gone in six months.

[Bedlam]

I also wonder if there will be another challenge against Corbin despite the Labour increase (even if they do end up winning (unlikely but possible)) based on a 'we would have won if it wasn't for you' reasoning, however false that might be.

[streetad]

That result being borne out would probably lead to another election in Autumn as It's hard to see how anyone could form a functioning government.

It would also probably put paid to Scottish Independence for the time being as the SNP would have got an even bigger kicking than the Tories...

IndyRef2 is an odd thing. The more the Tories win, the more likely it is because everyone else wants a positive relationship with Europe that will preserve most of the things that Scottish people want from it, and the power to actually hold the referendum lies with Holyrood not Westminster.

The problem the SNP have is that through their own actions in making everything about independence (part monomania, part distraction from their own shaky record in government) they have pushed pro-union voters into uniting against them and getting clever with tactical voting. Given their own backpedalling from a new referendum over the last week or so I would suspect their own internal polling is similar to this exit poll.

Plus despite First Past The Post making it seem otherwise, Scotland is not as pro-EU as all that. We still saw 40% of Scots voting for Brexit after all

[The Vortex Empire]

The Yougov model is holding up well in the results so far, and they predicted hung parliament with the Tories all the way down to 302 seats and Labour up to 269.

[Raj Ahten]

Well I'll join the long list of people who didn't expect this result from this election. I suppose I bought into "Corbyn is too hated" hype train over here across the pond. But then I expected May to be far more competent at electioneering than she turned out to be.

[FireNexus]

So... is this result more or less a repudiation of brexit?

[The Romulan Republic]

Watching the results come in on BBC. They're forecasting that the Conservatives get the most seats at 314, but lose their majority. But of course, the night is young (last I checked, it stood at Labour 8, Cons 5), and as 2016 showed repeatedly, elections aren't over until they're over.

I can't say I much care for Corbyn- he comes off as a bit too radical for my tastes, and I'm not convinced he'll be able to work effectively with other parties. Though I can't claim any particular knowledge of British politics.

I do know that I want the Conservatives to pay for their handling of Brexit, though.

Edit: Incidentally, I did find it quite amusing when I turned on the BBC this morning and, despite having a national election tonight, they were focused entirely on the Comey hearings.

[streetad]

Not really. The Tories and Lib Dems campaigned pretty exclusively around Brexit and neither have got any traction. Labour have been pretty much ignoring Brexit and concentrating on health and education. Corbyn has always been Eurosceptic by nature and seems to have taken the attitude 'Brexit is definitely happening, let's ignore It'.

[Bedlam]

So... is this result more or less a repudiation of brexit?

Not really as leaving the EU is also on Labours manifesto, although they're hoping for a 'softer' option (if possible) only a huge shift to the Lib Dems could be taken as a direct rejection of Brexit as they were the only main(ish) party to want another referendum on the matter.

[The Vortex Empire]

I'd say this is mostly a rejection of Tory austerity and an endorsement of the real, non-Blairite Labour.

[streetad]

I'd say this is mostly a rejection of Tory austerity and an endorsement of the real, non-Blairite Labour.

Although not anywhere near enough to have a hope of forming a majority government...

[The Vortex Empire]

I'd say this is mostly a rejection of Tory austerity and an endorsement of the real, non-Blairite Labour.

Although not anywhere near enough to have a hope of forming a majority government...

No, but assuming the exit polls hold up, which they have been so far, it's the first time Labour has gained seats since 1997 so clearly the right approach.

[Elfdart]

Jon Schwarz has the best line on this:

https://twitter.com/tinyrevolution/stat ... 6731880448

Leftists have to admit that Corbyn and Sanders's success has nothing to do with their platforms, they both just possess unstoppable charisma.

Corbyn strikes me as a decent, honest man of principle -or as close to one as you can get among elected officials- no naturally the Blairites tried to pull a DNC on him and did their best to fuck him over at every turn, smearing him even worse than the Tories did. Like their American counterparts, "New Labour" decided that losing to the Right was preferable to winning with the Left. Only this time Corbyn got out the vote and has a good chance of forcing a second election -one he has an even better chance of winning.

Oh, and the Guardian can go fuck themselves sideways with a rusty crowbar. They smeared Corbyn for two years and now they want to jump on the bandwagon. Assholes.

[mr friendly guy]

So you guys don't have a preferential voting system then, given the way you're describing why you vote the party you don't prefer based on tactical reasons?

[The Vortex Empire]

So you guys don't have a preferential voting system then, given the way you're describing why you vote the party you don't prefer based on tactical reasons?

Nope, Britain is First Past the Post.

[streetad]

We are potentially looking at an unprecedented and weird situation where Scottish voters could be imposing an unpopular Tory government on the English...

[Venator]

We are potentially looking at an unprecedented and weird situation where Scottish voters could be imposing an unpopular Tory government on the English...

Can you explain for the benefit of a Canadian who has trouble with the concept of more than two parties being relevant?

Is that because Scotts are voting for May instead of SNP, or because SNP would likely form a coalition with the Tories over Labour?