Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by Phantasee »

So Apple has $100 billion in cash or near cash-equivalents, sitting around. What they'll do with it has been a burning question for a while now.

Apple hasn't cut a dividend cheque since 1995...until now. Starting in Q4, Apple will start issuing a $2.65/share dividend. On top of that, they're starting a 3-year share buyback worth $10 billion.
The Globe and Mail wrote:March 18, 2012

Apple decision on cash balance expected Monday

By PETER SVENSSON
The Associated Press

Coming on heels of new iPad release, anticipation over possible buyback or dividend propelled stock past $600


Apple Inc. AAPL-Q said it will announce the outcome of its internal discussion concerning its enormous cash balance Monday morning.

Analysts expect Apple to institute a dividend. It had $97.6-billion in cash and securities at the end of 2011. That would be enough for a one-time $100 dividend for every shareholder, but analysts expect the company to institute a modest recurring dividend.

Apple CEO Tim Cook and chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer will discuss the decision on a conference call Monday morning, the company said late Sunday.

A dividend would reward shareholders and open ownership of Apple shares to a wider range of funds. Many "value-oriented" funds are not allowed to buy stocks that don't pay dividends.

Analysts say the lack of a dividend or other meaningful way of using the cash has held down Apple's share price.

Mr. Oppenheimer said on a quarterly conference call with analysts in January that the board was in "active" discussions on ways to use the cash. Late CEO Steve Jobs, haunted by lean years in the mid-90s, likely stood in the way of returning cash to shareholders. Mr. Jobs died in October.

Partly in anticipation of a dividend, Apple's stock has risen 37 per cent since a Jan. 24 conference call, closing much of the gap between analyst price targets and the actual stock price. In February, Apple shares broke the $500 level for the first time. Last week, they briefly rose above $600.

Apple is the world's most valuable publicly traded company, with a market capitalization of $545-billion.

Its shares closed Friday at $585.57, up 1 cent on the day.
I also came across this breakdown of Apple's strategies on Reddit:
mantra wrote:My "Engineer/MBA with 30 years in high tech" view of Apple's strategy and wins:
• Awareness that any leading edge technology company must fund R&D and fund it well enough to stay leading edge and even to stay a technology company. Competitor HP, for example, is NOT a technology company any longer - hasn't been since the mid-1990s.

• Awareness that R&D is a crap shoot with a 10%-20% probability of pay-off. Most companies have gotten rid of R&D because it "didn't pay for itself". This is entirely misses the point of course. Wrong answer!. And yes, Apple is a meat popsicle.

• Awareness that outsourcing is risky but is only acceptable risk if you are VERY hands-on with your suppliers. Outsourcing is only trivial when you are doing trailing-edge, 2-3 generation from leading-edge technologies. This is stuff like ERP systems, for example. For leading-edge technology you either don't outsource at all, or you have your keester planted at your outsource supplier's factory 24x7x365xN because that's the level of focus and attention you must have to make it work. It's not a "throw it over the fence" proposition if success or schedule or budget matter. Normal project management gives you 2 of those; outsourcing without being on-site give you only 1.

• Awareness that "creatives" (either/or designers or engineers) must call the shots to "stay young" and "stay agile". Other professions in charge are the kiss of death. Companies have life-cycles. The type of person in charge is intimately related to this. You can judge the "age" of a company by the professional training of the C-level management. Corporate youth requires creatives to be in charge. Other professions are needed for their part; just not as leaders/managers of innovation.

• Creation of financial structure to support the above by assuring high margins This is part that has work very well (perhaps too well) with Apple - all that cash is a result of this.

• Selling on value rather than selling on price to create margins. This is includes all of Apple's advertising (they sell benefits, not features). This is how you create high margins. It takes cojones to stick to a price and walk away if someone doesn't want to pay it. A trait missing from 90% of the Fortune 1000. Edit: this also creates "slow growth at your speed" characteristic of Apple (yet they "own" more market "margins" than all their Smart Phone competitors combined - nothing is left on the table for their competitors.

• Use of a consultative selling process at Apple stores (this is again "selling on value" by definition). But it also creates a direct link between customers and end-users of their product. That "communication" includes their generous return/exchange policies which per unit are gold mines of failure analysis and manufacturing feedback information that likely pay for themselves.

• Creating value that can be sold (ties to selling strategy and R&D expenditures tied to available margins) - this is the central flaw of most every other US Wintel PC vendor: they neither are capable of creating value nor do they sell on value (used to work for HP; know FAR TOO MUCH about this - one of the main reasons I left HP) and this is entirely self-inflicted (I expected the HP TouchPad fiasco 12-13 years ago - it was only a question of when and which product would flop that badly, not if)

• Tied to value creation/selling is never marketing or selling a product until it is ready. All the secrecy enters into this. Never selling vaporware is also key. All the "reality distortion field" aspects of Apple product intros revolves around this as well - reality is "distorted" because what you are seeing really is novel and unexpected and that's because it's not pre-sold or half-baked.

• Product risk management through primarily using well-established, mature, off-the-shelf technologies (for low risk and high margin) spiced with a few essential risky leading edge technologies (for higher risk but higher competitive value) resulting in a net portfolio effect of mostly low risk but high value. The former includes choosing ARM, using industry standard parts and interfaces, using open source, etc. The latter includes display, battery and similar technologies.

• Having direct supply chain linkage to suppliers and customers. If you look at Wintel and Android they are separated for actual users and suppliers by an extra supply chain node both up and down chain which creates barriers to communication critical to both marketing and manufacturing. Any substantive change Microsoft or Intel want to make for end-users requires a committee and inter-corporate communication while at Apple it's "all in-house with people on the same team". Similarly, most of Microsoft's "customers" are NOT END-USERS but intermediary agents (IT, ISVs, HW vendors) who have different motives and interests from actual users of Microsoft's products. Companies like HP have outsourced literally everything but the HP logo to their suppliers and largely have a "hands-off", indirect, distributor-like relationship with both suppliers and end-users compared to Apple.

• The previous is also tightly coupled to NOT participating in a "split-market" of separate HW and SW. The separation is what Wintel, Linux and Android are and they suffer for it, in part for the reasons above. But also because "Computer Devices" which include everything from Mainframes to Minis to Micros (PC) to Smart Phones are in Late Technology adoption. Late adoption absolutely requires products be "appliances", not techno-geek-toys. The "split market" works really well for the latter but utterly sucks for the former because appliances have squeezed margins and broader, less sophisticated markets which demand near-perfect usability. A split market can not compete on these terms.


In terms of the specific question
1. All of the above and more

2. Current position: Apple is to its competition (Wintel/Android) what PCs (microcomputers) are to minicomputers right now. This is the whole "post-PC" thing which is basically saying a large disruptive technology change is occurring (of the scale of Mini-to-Micro in the 1970s-1980s) and right now none of the incumbents (Apples competitors) are handling it any better than Data General or Wang Computer did back in the day. They "don't get it" like the stereotypical "Innovator's Dilemma" incumbent scenario. They also don't have the financial structure or technology capabilities to compete. (Dell says they aren't a PC company - well, yeah, not a technology company).

3. Mostly Apple is already doing everything right. Minor tweaks but absolutely should not change any of the above strategy points at all. Absolutely never take any play out of the Microsoft playbook. Microsoft is NOT HEALTHY right now anyway so I can't see how any one would be that stupid to suggest "do Microsoft". This will be an "Apple" way of things from now on.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by loomer »

Maybe they could start by not charging more than the new cost of a fucking Ipad 3 to repair some minor damage to my Ipad 2. Fucking pile of horseshit right there.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by Stark »

There's obviously no reason for them to do that.

This is an interesting strategy, though; I winder what the plan is. Are they afraid of declining performance going forward?
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by GrandMasterTerwynn »

Stark wrote:There's obviously no reason for them to do that.

This is an interesting strategy, though; I winder what the plan is. Are they afraid of declining performance going forward?
It's nothing, really. They're buying back roughly five billion dollars of stock per year (so they can turn around and give it back to their employees in stock options) and paying ten billion dollars a year in dividends. Which works out to be a small fraction of their cash pile . . . and Apple's cash pile will continue to grow, in spite of the dividends and stock buybacks, such is their profitability. The main effects are two-fold: First is to shut up some of Apple's investors, who have been asking for stock dividends for years. Second is to open up Apple stock to more institutional investors (i.e. income funds whose goal is to provide cash income from the funds' investments to the funds' shareholders.)
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by Questor »

Stark wrote:It's jut a bit strange if this is all they're doing. Do they really have nothing to invest in?
I doubt that this is all they're doing. My guess is that this is all they're willing to tell you that they're doing.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by Marko Dash »

what would be awesome is if they sent some to nasa
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by Starglider »

Stark wrote:This is an interesting strategy, though; I winder what the plan is.
As mentioned in the story, it's mostly a desperate attempt to maintain their valuation rally well into bubble territory, by suckering in new classes of 'value investor' for the final pump (and dump). Apple now has a market capitalisation greater than all large US retailers combined and is owned by the majority of hedge funds. There should be a decent correction in the price during the next gap between QE episodes (i.e. early summer).
loomer wrote:Maybe they could start by not charging more than the new cost of a fucking Ipad 3 to repair some minor damage to my Ipad 2.
Is the price enough to make you consider buying a non-Apple equivalent? No? Then there's no reason for Apple to charge less.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Stark wrote:It's jut a bit strange if this is all they're doing. Do they really have nothing to invest in?
One theory I've been reading is that it's a way to avoid having to re-patriate a bunch of earnings to the US (where they would face US corporate income tax). Instead, they wait for a tax holiday to bring a bunch of it back.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Starglider wrote: Is the price enough to make you consider buying a non-Apple equivalent? No? Then there's no reason for Apple to charge less.
Actually, yes. It's also enough, coupled with the shit at Foxconn, to make me abstain completely from purchasing anything from them.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Starglider wrote:As mentioned in the story, it's mostly a desperate attempt to maintain their valuation rally well into bubble territory, by suckering in new classes of 'value investor' for the final pump (and dump). Apple now has a market capitalisation greater than all large US retailers combined and is owned by the majority of hedge funds. There should be a decent correction in the price during the next gap between QE episodes (i.e. early summer).
I tend to agree, skimming through their latest quarterly report reveals they only have $10.3 billion in cash & cash equivalents, with most of their $97 billion tied up in corporate securities and US agency securities, and mostly long term at that. These securities are high quality and AAA according to the report, given similar claims by financial companies, some of which are now dead, I reserve my right to remain sceptical. There isn't anything as far as I can see that says "we're in trouble" but I think they're taking too much risk with the way their cash is distributed.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by Phantasee »

Apparently this only amounts to $35 billion. The rest of their nearly $100 billion is held overseas, and until Apple (and others) get their way on corporate income taxes it's likely to stay overseas.

Which makes me wonder about US taxation: why would you penalize corporations trying to bring their cash back to the US? All they're doing is inflating the profitability of Irish subsidiaries and the like.

I wonder what the unintended consequences would be of instituting a tax deduction for income tax paid overseas, and then charging the same tax rate on revenue regardless of geographic source. This way you'd only be taxed on the income once, effectively, and you'd be paying the same amount of tax on all your income, eliminating any benefits for holding the cash overseas.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Marko Dash wrote:what would be awesome is if they sent some to nasa
Please get the fuck out until you have something worth contributing to the discussion.

Fucking NASA... :roll:
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Stark wrote:It's jut a bit strange if this is all they're doing. Do they really have nothing to invest in?
Supposedly they've already found everything they want to invest in, in terms of R&D, plant, equipment, etc. There's a limit to what you can pour cash into without diluting your companies focus or even just wasting the money.

I've heard some ideas that they should buy AT&T (stupid) or invest heavily in AT&T and Verizon, but I'm not sure they'd benefit very much from that, and between anti-trust issues and having to deal with your competitors, I don't see them doing it anyway.

I think the lack of dividends was something Jobs wanted and nobody said no to him; Cook doesn't seem very opposed to placating shareholders.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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J wrote:I tend to agree, skimming through their latest quarterly report reveals they only have $10.3 billion in cash & cash equivalents, with most of their $97 billion tied up in corporate securities and US agency securities, and mostly long term at that.
That's completely standard cash management practice for large corporations, money market rates are so low at the moment that you don't want to keep anything more than necessary in ultra-liquid form, also given current banking system stresses high quality bonds are probably safer.
There isn't anything as far as I can see that says "we're in trouble" but I think they're taking too much risk with the way their cash is distributed.
Disagree, they aren't really taking any more risk than other large US companies. If fixed income collapses enough that Apple faces a significant loss on its bond portfolio the cash loss will be a minor factor in its valuation compared to the cratering market sentiment, massive liquidations of its stock (by desperate funds and banks), consumer credit lock-up, supply chain problems and general doom and gloom.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Starglider wrote:
Stark wrote:This is an interesting strategy, though; I winder what the plan is.
As mentioned in the story, it's mostly a desperate attempt to maintain their valuation rally well into bubble territory,
What world do you live in where a stock with a P/E ratio of 17 is in bubble territory?
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Phantasee wrote: Which makes me wonder about US taxation: why would you penalize corporations trying to bring their cash back to the US? All they're doing is inflating the profitability of Irish subsidiaries and the like.
Because of the way US Tax law works it's quite possible to produce a TV set with parts made 90% in the US and via accounting gimmicks get it labled as overseas production thus don't have to pay taxes on any part. Corporations which make money overseas don't pay taxes on any of it until they bring it back to the US. And via loopholes and gimmicks it's possible to have lots of profit made in the US be immune from US taxation. Toss in the actual production overseas which may also be immune from local taxation and you have situations where companies make profits no government taxes until they return it someplace.

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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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They could invest in new technology. Bring the bleeding edge to the real world and all that.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Why would they do that when they can get away with selling mediocre stuff that's been around for years while calling it 'revolutionary'?
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Chirios wrote:They could invest in new technology. Bring the bleeding edge to the real world and all that.
Apple doesn't really do bleeding-edge technology but they do a good chunk of applied RD&E (e.g. batteries, power-efficient processors, etc.)
Ryan Thunder wrote:Why would they do that when they can get away with selling mediocre stuff that's been around for years while calling it 'revolutionary'?
:roll:
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Oh, I know, they can invest in either making iOS compatible with something other than Objective fucking C or improving it so that it isn't such a Byzantine mess of a language.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

Post by Mr. Coffee »

Honestly, they'd be best off with paying the smaller recurring dividends, use some of the rest of the money to invest in R&D with a sizable chunk held in reserve in case they have a bad quarter or three and need some rainy day money to rid it out.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Mr. Coffee wrote:Honestly, they'd be best off with paying the smaller recurring dividends, use some of the rest of the money to invest in R&D with a sizable chunk held in reserve in case they have a bad quarter or three and need some rainy day money to rid it out.
That's exactly what they're doing. At least that's my understanding.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Some good old Alabama business sense applies to the world's biggest company? Who knew!

Chirios: Read the discussion on Apple's strategy after the article. Apple prefers safe bets for technology generally, with bleeding edge stuff used to increase competitiveness.

In fact, here's the relevant bit:
Product risk management through primarily using well-established, mature, off-the-shelf technologies (for low risk and high margin) spiced with a few essential risky leading edge technologies (for higher risk but higher competitive value) resulting in a net portfolio effect of mostly low risk but high value. The former includes choosing ARM, using industry standard parts and interfaces, using open source, etc. The latter includes display, battery and similar technologies.
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Re: Apple decides what to do with $100 billion

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Phantasee wrote:Ryan: Shut the fuck up.
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