Uprising in Libya

[Pu-239]

From Al-Jazeera quoting AFP- snippets from the draft UN resolution:

Demands the immediate establishment of a ceasefire and a complete end to violence and all attacks against, and abuses of, civilians;

"Stresses the need to intensify efforts to find a solution to the crisis which responds to the legitimate demands of the Libyan people and notes the decisions of the Secretary-General to send his Special Envoy to Libya and of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union to send its ad hoc High Level Committee to Libya with the aim of facilitating dialogue to lead to the political reforms necessary to find a peaceful and sustainable solution;

"Demands that the Libyan authorities comply with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, human rights and refugee law and take all measures to protect civilians and meet their basic needs, and to ensure the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance;

"Authorises member states ... to take all necessary measures ... to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign
occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory...;

"Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;

"Calls upon all member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, to provide assistance, including any necessary over-flight approvals, for the purposes of implementing" the no-fly zone.

"Calls upon all member states, in particular states of the region, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, in order to ensure strict implementation of the arms embargo established (by Resolution 1970) to inspect in their territory, including seaports and airports, and on the high seas, vessels and aircraft bound to or from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya...

"Deplores the continuing flows of mercenaries into the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and calls upon all member states to comply strictly with their obligations under (Resolution 1970) to prevent the supply of armed mercenary personnel to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya;

"Decides that all states shall deny permission to any aircraft registered in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya or owned or operated by Libyan nationals or companies to take off from, land in or overfly their territory
unless the particular flight has been approved in advance by the Committee, or in the case of an emergency landing;

"Decides that all States shall deny permission to any aircraft to take off from, land in or overfly their territory, if they have information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that the aircraft contains items the
supply, sale, transfer, or export of which is prohibited ... including the provision of armed mercenary personnel, except in the case of an emergency landing;

"Decides that the asset freeze imposed by (Resolution 1970) shall apply to all funds, other financial assets and economic resources which are on their territories, which are owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by the Libyan authorities ... or by individuals or entities acting on their behalf or at their direction...

"Affirms its determination to ensure that assets frozen pursuant to (Resolution 1970) shall, at a later stage, as soon as possible be made available to and for the benefit of the people of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya."

[Pu-239]

The Guardian has a live blog on the vote: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... rikes-live
EDIT: And the resolution has passed.
EDIT: Apparently celebratory gunfire or fireworks and cheeringin Benghazi

[somnick]

hooray

[somnick]

I really hope it's not too late.

[Pelranius]

So long, Colonel Daffy!

[Eulogy]

The rebels desperately need a victory at this point otherwise everyone will think Kaddafi is unstoppable. Unfortunately the rebel tactics have been retarded as far as I can tell. They mostly mill about in the open at checkpoints on the highways. This might partly have to do with the fact that many of Libya'[s towns are easily surrounded and then shelled into surrender. As noted earlier hopefully the more broken terrain around Benghazi will give them some defensive advantage. Turning it into an urban fight is also entirely to their advantage; especially if they field fortify structures. Actually even fox holes have been lacking so far in the engagements I've seen online. They need people to dig as well as to shoot. This is where the revolutions lack of organization really hurts. If there was any real authority the enthusiastic revolutionary crowds could be put to good use filling sand bags.

Someone hasn't read Sun Tzu! Goddamn, no wonder the rebels are getting their asses kicked!

Gadzooks has the advantage in almost every way: experience, firepower, range, money, infrastructure, and mobility. This is NOT the time to be standing out in the fucking open waiting for your enemy to spot and shell you!

They should've used guerilla tactics from the very start: hit-and-run/fade, harassment, traps, ambushes, attacks on prisons. And before the enemy starts getting frustrated, hand out cameras to everyone so that they can record said frustration and upload it to Youtube.

It also goes without saying that they should have prepared better. Jesus Christ, even Egypt has special forces! If the rebels had sought their training and guidance before the open rebellion, they wouldn't be on the ropes right now, not to mention giving good people at the UN more time to pass resolutions before more innocent people died.

Now we just have to wait until the intervention actually happens.

[Sea Skimmer]

Egypt is already arming the rebellion and many have been for the last several days; this was announced about 20 minutes after the resolution passed.

Gadzooks has the advantage in almost every way: experience, firepower, range, money, infrastructure, and mobility. This is NOT the time to be standing out in the fucking open waiting for your enemy to spot and shell you!

They should've used guerilla tactics from the very start: hit-and-run/fade, harassment, traps, ambushes, attacks on prisons. And before the enemy starts getting frustrated, hand out cameras to everyone so that they can record said frustration and upload it to Youtube.

You really have no clue what the terrain is like do you? Hint, vast empty desert between mostly small urban areas, or the need of the rebellion to liberate areas as bases and to increase its numbers? They don't want special forces BTW, the rebellion gains vast legitimacy by NOT using foreigners to shoot other Libyans on the ground. Some special forces might be around, but they wont be training rebels, certainly not openly. Furthermore seizing the oil ports was a sure way to strangle Gaddafi economically without having to think about seizing Tripoli by storm.

[Eulogy]

You really have no clue what the terrain is like do you? Hint, vast empty desert between mostly small urban areas, or the need of the rebellion to liberate areas as bases and to increase its numbers? They don't want special forces BTW, the rebellion gains vast legitimacy by NOT using foreigners to shoot other Libyans on the ground. Some special forces might be around, but they wont be training rebels, certainly not openly. Furthermore seizing the oil ports was a sure way to strangle Gaddafi economically without having to think about seizing Tripoli by storm.

So no guerilla tactics? Hanging around the vast empty desert won't protect them from shells or sniper fire, especially not on the fucking highways.

Besides, I didn't say the rebellion should beg their neighbours to kill Gadzooks for them. I'm saying that they should have prepared better. Like say, training rebels in secret.

[Thanas]

Eulogy, please stop before you embarras yourself any further. Training rebels in secret? What is this, the newest RTS?

[Thanas]

It is completely shameful that Germany abstained on this.

[Sea Skimmer]

So no guerilla tactics? Hanging around the vast empty desert won't protect them from shells or sniper fire, especially not on the fucking highways.

Besides, I didn't say the rebellion should beg their neighbours to kill Gadzooks for them. I'm saying that they should have prepared better. Like say, training rebels in secret.

You are fucking completely retarded then. You think this was planned, that means you don't even have the slightest clue what the fuck you are talking about in the first place. You know what guerilla warfare means idiot? It means Gaddafi death squads can keep on murdering you, your friends and your family and anyone else they fucking care to murder because you are only fighting covertly instead of forming an army and kicking those murders the fuck out of your homes. Guerilla warfare is ugly, brutal and completely destroys nations. No one would ever resort to that when they have in fact been relatively successful as a field army. The rebellion has been driven back sure, it has not been destroyed and thousands of armed men are still in the field. If they listened to stupidity like you spout they would be wiped out by now. Instead they are now a field army that just got all the air support in the world.

[Phantasee]

It is completely shameful that Germany abstained on this.

Why did Germany abstain?

[somnick]

Someone hasn't read Sun Tzu! Goddamn, no wonder the rebels are getting their asses kicked!

Gadzooks has the advantage in almost every way: experience, firepower, range, money, infrastructure, and mobility. This is NOT the time to be standing out in the fucking open waiting for your enemy to spot and shell you!

They should've used guerilla tactics from the very start: hit-and-run/fade, harassment, traps, ambushes, attacks on prisons. And before the enemy starts getting frustrated, hand out cameras to everyone so that they can record said frustration and upload it to Youtube.

It also goes without saying that they should have prepared better. Jesus Christ, even Egypt has special forces! If the rebels had sought their training and guidance before the open rebellion, they wouldn't be on the ropes right now, not to mention giving good people at the UN more time to pass resolutions before more innocent people died.

Now we just have to wait until the intervention actually happens.

Um, I don't think the rebellion went like:
""Ok guys, we are a bunch of really good strategists, experienced in guerilla warfare and have total control&communication, an established chain of command, experienced and disciplined fighters and well planned logistics. We will start the rebellion at xxxx Zulu time and get rid of Gaddafi"

I think this is a protest that went violent and gradually became an armed rebellion, whith nobody really expecting it to go this far in the beginning.

[Sea Skimmer]

The entire rebellion is nothing but a reaction to Gaddafi’s goons blowing away two funeral processions in a row, and then flying in planeloads of mercenaries who began not just shooting every protesters in sight but EVERY SINGLE PERSON in sight in Benghazi and several other cities! The local army units were ordered to join in the slaughter and immediately rebelled at the order.

Yeah guerrilla warfare sure sounds like a brilliant response to that scenario How fucking stupid can people be?

[Lord Woodlouse]

It is completely shameful that Germany abstained on this.

Why did Germany abstain?

In their statement it sounded like the German ambassador was broadly in support of the resolution, they just didn't want to go anywhere near an interventionalist military strike with a ten foot barge poll, so abstained.

[Phantasee]

Does this affect any possible German contribution to a no-fly zone or other intervention, or are they going to be abstaining from the actual action as well?

[Lord Woodlouse]

Does this affect any possible German contribution to a no-fly zone or other intervention, or are they going to be abstaining from the actual action as well?

The reason for the abstaining is because they definitely don't want to contribute anything.

[Tribun]

I'd thought that tomorrow Gaddafi would murder thousands in Bengazi. I never thought the UN would actually quickly wave through a resolution that not only creates a no-fly zone but actually gives green light to bomb Gaddafi's forces into the ground (granted, only if civilians are in danger, but considering their track record, that's always the case).

I'm only angry that the pussies in our goverment didn't dare to make a point against this dictator.

[somnick]

It is completely shameful that Germany abstained on this.

I agree, but I think the general public opinion is very anti-war at the moment (can't back that up though) and that the current government just really wants to avoid that kind of thing right now.

But this is as close to a "just war" as it gets i think.

[Thanas]

Does this affect any possible German contribution to a no-fly zone or other intervention, or are they going to be abstaining from the actual action as well?

The reason for the abstaining is because they definitely don't want to contribute anything.

Depends. I think logistical support and a few warships of the coast are probably doable, as well as some commandoes.

However: Germany for obvious reasons has a lot of hangups about attacking another country and with casualties mounting in Afghanistan, the politicians probably think more will not be tolerated by the populace. That said, we will see. If all of Europe goes in, Germany will have no choice but act. I sure hope we do, otherwise purchasing all these shiny Eurofighters was a waste.

[Sea Skimmer]

As angry as I have openly been; I have always believed that the UN would not allow Benghazi to fall or come under bombardment for more then a day or two. Allowing that would make the UN such a zero credibility joke that it could be an actual stepping stone to abandonment of the organization. It was just question as to which standard of defense of the rebellion would be adapted; barely allowing its survival or as we now have, an all out effort to not only defend Benghazi but while the rebel army is still fighting well outside it. Too bad bullshit had to stop this from happening a week earlier when the situation would have placed three quarters of the oil in rebel hands, allowing it to still be pumped to the world and the pocket of the Libyan people without funding Gaddafi. Gaddafi had no friends in the world who even remotely matter, no real claim to rule except persistence, this should have been the easiest UN resolution ever.

Looks like the assets of the Libyan state oil company are being frozen, so that may be the end of exports from the ports Gaddafi does have. Higher gas prices ahoy.

[Eulogy]

I only hope Gadzooks was relatively sloppy hiding his funds (being mad and all) so what blood money he has left can be put to good use.

I'm not holding my breath, however.

[somnick]

This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us we will get crazy too. We will respond. We will make their lives hell because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace.

There we are: Muammar Gaddafi threatens to "get crazy".

I think that was quite funny

[Thanas]

My respect for Hillary Clinton has just soared:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/51515.html

Clinton’s position was vindicated early Thursday evening when the United Nations Security Council - at the urging of the United States - approved a resolution authorizing “all necessary measures” to protect Libyan civilians, including a no-fly zone. U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice told reporters that such a move could involve direct attacks on pro-Qadhafi forces now bearing down on the rebel stronghold of Benghazi in eastern Libya.

Clinton’s persistence in the anti-Qadhafi cause has been such a constant in the White House in recent days that Obama, according to reports, joked about Clinton lobbing rocks through his window during his remarks at Saturday night’s Gridiron dinner.
[...]Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s revelation that she won’t be staying on if there is a second Obama term may have been news to those who don’t know her, but did not surprise her friends, who say she’s spending an increasing amount of time considering her post-government options even as challenges mount at Foggy Bottom.

Clinton has made similar “I’m not here forever” comments before – but it was the timing of her remarks to CNN on Wednesday that raised eyebrows, coming at a critical moment in her fierce internal battle to push President Barack Obama to join the fight to liberate Libya from Muammar Qadhafi.

[...]The biggest strain on Clinton has been her effort, not embraced by everyone in the administration, to stave off the kind of genocide in Libya that her husband permitted to occur in Rwanda in the 1990s.

Clinton, according to sources, has been pressing Obama to take bolder action in the Middle East for weeks, especially in Libya where she has privately implored the president and his top aides to impose a no-fly-zone to aid anti-Qadhafi rebels before it’s too late.

But she’s reportedly faced opposition from National Security Adviser Tom Donilon and Defense Secretary Robert Gates who have argued for a far more cautious approach, warning against the cost, logistical complications and political blow-back of further U.S. military involvement in such a volatile part of the world.

Clinton has not publicly pressured Obama. But her husband has.

“I wouldn’t do it if they hadn’t asked, but if the (insurgent) leaders are on television pleading…I think that we should do it,” Bill Clinton told the Women in the World conference in New York a week ago.

“Qadhafi has internationalized the conflict himself by hiring people from other countries who do not give a rip about the Libyans,” he said. “So that’s why (the insurgents) said, ‘Just give us the chance to have a fair fight,’ and I, for whatever it’s worth, think that’s what we should do.”

Clinton, speaking in Tunis on Thursday, pressed even harder for action against Qadhafi, warning that the dictator should be taken at his word when he promised to show “no mercy” on his enemies in Benghazi.

“A no-fly zone requires certain actions taken to protect the planes and the pilots, including bombing targets like the Libyan defense systems,” she said in Tunis, her last stop on a trip that also took her to Cairo and Paris.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Even if Qaddafi goes, who's going to take over the country? Qaddafi has effectively crushed opposition to his rule for decades, and I seriously doubt getting rid of him is going to solve the problems. The opposition is hardly united. If anything, getting rid of him is just going to open more can of worms. It's not that I am saying he should stay, but no one seems to be even remotely openly talking about "what next?" but shying away from the issue altogether. Impose democracy? There are no insitutions to support democracy. Nevermind the part of the population pissed off at having their favourite patron kicked off the perch. The Eygptians are likely to take advantage, and quite likely, we are simply swapping one dictator for another.