Uprising in Libya

[Edward Yee]

Source on the claim of Unit 777's presence?

[Sea Skimmer]

I can easily believe an air attack was carried out, and only a few of the vessels in Gaddafis tiny navy have anything even remotely respectable for air defenses.

I was expecting Rebel air power to come into play at some point if Gaddafi approached Benghazi, or else when the rebel advanced near Tripoli. One clearly operational (looked almost new) rebel Mi-24 and rebel Mi-17 with rocket pods were filmed on the ground fairly early in the uprising, and while no jets were filmed the airfields known to have them (via google earth they are all well east of Benghazi)) were nowhere near the areas most reporters swarmed too.

[Block]

I wonder what exactly the Egyptians are doing in all of this?

Apparently Unit 777 is inside Libya (hopefully they're not as bad as they were in the 70s and 80s) and the timing of the rebel's air strikes (if true) is very curious.

They supposedly train with the SAS and Delta, so they can't be THAT bad. As for them being in the country... do you have any sort of source for that? Their presence would be an act of war after all.

[Sea Skimmer]

They supposedly train with the SAS and Delta, so they can't be THAT bad. As for them being in the country... do you have any sort of source for that? Their presence would be an act of war after all.

They are that bad. While retaking a hijacked plane in the 1980s they used a large explosive charge to blow in the roof of the plane. It killed 20 hostages instantly, and the plane was then stormed with fragmentation grenades killing dozens more. People stopped hijacking Egyptian planes after that as the government made it blatantly clear they didn’t give a shit about anything but killing the terrorists. They might be better today, but I wouldn’t trust it. The SAS and Delta Force also train with random third world militia type forces when it suits western national interests. I likewise highly doubt Egypt has more then a few covert agents alone or in pairs in Libya. Like you say it’d be an invasion, and Egypt has far too many lingering internal problems to start fucking around in Libya. All is not well in that country just because Mubarak left power.

[Block]

The training program wasn't in place in the 80s as far as I know. I know about their history, and it is pretty incompetent, but a consistent long term training program should have improved their skills somewhat.

[Pelranius]

Here's the source from the Mirror.

Egyptian special forces secretly storm Libya

by Chris Hughes, Daily Mirror 3/03/2011

CRACK special forces troops have been secretly pouring into Libya to back the rebellion against Colonel Gaddafi.

The elite troops moved in as the defiant tyrant vowed to “fight to the last man and woman” – and warned that “thousands will die” if the West intervenes.

But the Mirror can reveal his Tripoli stronghold is now under threat from a growing army of special forces preparing to quell civil war.

Intelligence sources have told us that post-Mubarak Egyptian troops have been allowed into Libya by Tunisian soldiers – showing increasing Arab-backing for the anti-Gaddafi revolt.

The move came as a ferocious battle raged yesterday for control of the key oil port town of Brega after loyalists launched their first counter-offensive in the eastern desert in an attempt to reclaim “Free Libya”.

Rebels gathered to defend the nearby airport and city of Ajdabiya, sending out the rallying cry: “Any man with a gun – come and fight for freedom!” They claimed to be pushing back Gaddafi’s troops – and said they had taken a number of prisoners. One rebel, Mashala Agoub, 40, said: “The battle for Brega is crucial. It has the oil, it has the airport – it is vital to the control of the region.”

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Cornered Gaddafi has lashed out at international moves against his regime.

He branded the freezing of his assets abroad “an act of piracy”. And he warned: “There will be no stability in the Mediterranean if there is no stability in Libya.”

But western governments, including Britain, were yesterday shoring up their relations with rebel leaders.

And David Cameron stood by plans for a no-fly zone over Libya – despite international opposition. The Prime Minister said he was still considering sending RAF jets – even after America, Turkey and other nations raised concerns about the use of force, which has no UN backing.

An SAS squadron is on standby in Malta. A source claimed yesterday that plans may be under way to take out Gaddafi with a drone-style laser-guided missile.

The source added: “By just targeting him, it could save an awful lot of lives.”

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-storie ... -22962119/

Stratfor also thinks the same thing.

BEIRUT, Lebanon, March 9 (UPI) -- Egypt, still grappling with a revolution that toppled President Hosni Mubarak in February, is reported to be quietly aiding rebel forces seeking to oust Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.

This is seen as part of a drive by the transitional regime in Cairo to restore Egypt's leadership of the Arab world.
While the United States and the international community debate whether to intervene in the civil war raging in Libya to support the ragtag rebel forces holding the east of the country, Egypt apparently has sent around 100 Special Forces troops to help the insurgents.

The U.S. global security consultancy Stratfor says these troops "have played a key role in quietly providing weaponry and training to Libyan opposition forces while trying to organize a political command in the east."

Cairo has made no official comment on the report. But the transitional regime is dominated by the Egyptian military.

It is deeply concerned about a flood of refugees pouring across the desert border from Libya as well as a resurgence of Islamist militancy in eastern Libya that could reignite its own Muslim extremists.

No Arab state wants to see Libya degenerate into perpetual war and chaos, as has happened in Somalia.

Stratfor claimed that, Tunisia, Libya's western neighbor where the people power uprisings erupted in January, is "allowing armed volunteer fighters, along with Egyptian special operations forces, to enter Libya."

It gave no numbers but noted, "This reported influx of fighters would presumably be used to flank Gadhafi's forces from the west while other opposition forces move in from the east for a potential battle over Tripoli," the Libyan capital held by Gadhafi's loyalists and mercenaries.

Arab sources say that the Egyptian commandoes are most likely from Unit 777 of the Egyptian army's Special Operations Command set up in the late 1970s. Unit 777's 250-300 personnel trains with Germany's elite GSG-9 counter-terrorism force, the U.S. Army's Delta Force and France's GIGN, special operations arm of the National Gendarmerie.

The GIGN was instrumental in regaining control of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, from Islamic fundamentalists in December 1979.

There have been unconfirmed reports that Unit 777, whose main mission has been battling Islamist militants, has conducted operations outside Egypt.

There has been speculation that with Mubarak gone, Egypt will have a freer hand in terms of foreign policy and that the powerful military will have a bigger say in that regard.

"Unlike Persian Gulf Arab states, whose power is derived from petrodollars, Egypt has real military might and regional intelligence networks with which to assert itself," Stratfor observed.

"This means that in the near future, the United States may conceivably get a new source of manpower in the Middle East," analyst Victor Kotsev wrote in Asia Times Online.

"For Egypt's military rulers, this would also be a way to divert public attention away from domestic problems and to demonstrate competent rule in one area where they are indeed expert: military intervention.

"In a sense, the uprising created the ideal conditions for expanding Egypt's military role in the region. It weakened the political structure of the country while empowering the army," Kotsev wrote.

Egypt is well-placed to act as a regional gendarme, particularly as U.S. power and authority in the Middle East is waning.

It has the largest military in the Arab world: active armed forces totaling 468,500 personnel, including a 340,000-man army and reserves of some 500,000.

These forces haven't seen conventional combat since the 1973 war against Israel, except a four-day border shootout with Libya in 1977 in which Egyptian forces drove a few miles into Libyan territory before Algeria mediated a cease-fire.

Indeed, Egypt and Libya have had a rocky relationship since the unpredictable Gadhafi seized power from King Idris in September 1969.

"Libya's energy assets give it internal wealth that Egypt lacks, though these resources also make the country an attractive target," Stratfor noted.

"Coming out of its own political crisis, Egypt is experiencing a reawakening in the Arab world and appears eager to reassert its influence following years of insularity …

"In the case of Libya, Egypt is trying to position itself as a regional power that the outside world must rely on to operate in the country."

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/201 ... 299696518/

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Good on Egypt, because the rebels need all the help they can get.

Moammar Gadhafi's forces intensified offensives in the east and the west Wednesday with relentless shelling aimed at routing holdout rebels and retaking control of the country he has ruled with an iron fist for more than four decades.

As Gadhafi's forces advanced on their eastern stronghold, the rebels lashed out at the West for failing to come to their aid.

"People are fed up. They are waiting impatiently for an international move," said Saadoun al-Misrati, a rebel spokesman in the city of Misrata, the last rebel-held city in the west, which came under heavy shelling Wednesday.

"What Gadhafi is doing, he is exploiting delays by international community. People are very angry that no action is being taken against Gadhafi's weaponry."

An international diplomatic push to create a no-fly zone to prevent Gadhafi from bombing civilians has so far failed, although French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Wednesday that several unspecified Arab countries have pledged to participate in possible military action in Libya.

Residents fled the strategic city of Ajdabiya, 480 miles (800 kilometers) southeast of Tripoli, as a bombardment continued for a second day and a breakdown in rebel defenses threatened to open the gateway to the long stretch of eastern Libya that has been in the control of the opposition throughout the monthlong uprising.

Rebels braced for a possible attack on the next major city in the east, Benghazi, Libya's second-largest city and the birthplace of the monthlong rebellion, which began with protests in the city by opposition activists emboldened by successful uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.

Gadhafi's son, Seif al-Islam, warned the rebels the regime was closing in on them and urged them to leave the country.

"We don't want to kill, we don't want revenge, but you, traitors, mercenaries, you have committed crimes against the Libyan people: leave, go in peace to Egypt," he said in an interview with Lyon, France-based EuroNews television. "Military operations are over. Within 48 hours everything will be finished. Our forces are almost in Benghazi. Whatever the decision, it will be too late."

Mustafa Gheriani, an opposition spokesman, said rebels in Benghazi would be ready for an attack.

"A large percentage of Benghazi's population is armed. Can Gadhafi bomb the city? Sure he can. Can he go in? I don't think so," he told The Associated Press. "Also, I think it is too far for his supply lines."

Gheriani said anti-aircraft equipment has been deployed, and the army mobilized, although he didn't know where. There have been few signs in recent days of the rebels digging in defensive preparations on the city's outskirts.

An activist hiding out in the city said the rebels were lightly armed but managed to ambush a group of regime troops marching into the city on foot late Tuesday, but the victory was short lived. Artillery shelling was ongoing, he said.

"The rebels set a trap and managed to take over four tanks, but now I see none of them," Abdel-Bari Zwei said when reached by telephone. "Ajdabiya is witnessing unprecedented destruction. This is the end of the city."

Residents in Ajdabiya fled either to tents set up outside the city or 140 miles (200 kilometers) northeast to Benghazi.

"The shelling hasn't stopped since last night. The residential areas are under attack," Zwei said, adding that the hospital had been overwhelmed and many of the injured had to be taken to Benghazi.

The city was besieged from the west, where Gadhafi's brigades were deployed from his stronghold of Sirte, and from the north with a warship in the Mediterranean Sea.

"The city is sealed off from the south, from the west and the northern Zwitina port by a warship," he said.

Libyan state television aired calls for the opposition to stop fighting, apparently hoping to sway populations in the east away from support of the rebels.

Ajdabiya has been a key supply point for the rebellion, with ammunition and weapons depots. Until now, the Gadhafi forces' offensive toward the east has battled over two oil ports on the Mediterranean Sea, and Ajdabiya is the first heavily populated city in the area they have tried to retake.

Its loss was a major setback to the rebels, who less than two weeks ago were poised to march on Tripoli, the capital, and had appeared capable of sweeping Gadhafi out of power, inspired by successful uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. But the regime's better armed and organized military has reversed the tide.

Oil prices rose to above $98 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as fears that clashes in Libya and the Gulf kingdom of Bahrain could further disrupt crude supplies outweighed concern Japan's disaster will crimp demand.

Gadhafi's forces also launched an attack on Misrata — which for days has been under a punishing blockade, its population running out of supplies. The barrage came a day after the government recaptured the last rebel-held city west of Tripoli, solidifying his control over the coastline from the capital to the Tunisian border.

"There is coordinated shelling by Gadhafi's brigades firing artillery and machine guns from three different city entrances," rebel spokesman Saadoun al-Misrati said, speaking by satellite phone.

He said the shelling began at 7 a.m. and regular telephone lines had been cut.

France was pushing for rapid action as supporters of a no-fly zone over Libya worked to persuade Russia, Germany and other reluctant members of the U.N. Security Council to back a resolution aimed at stopping Gadhafi's planes from bombing civilians.

The French foreign minister wrote on his blog Wednesday that France and Britain have sought targeted air strikes for two weeks and said two conditions are necessary: a Security Council mandate for such force and "effective" participation by Arab states. "Several Arab countries assured us that they will participate," Juppe wrote, without elaborating.

tl;dr: Gaddafi's turning this into a one-sided ass-kicking contest.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I don't think it's for altruism.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

I don't think it's for altruism.

Nobody is claiming that the Egyptians are doing it out of the goodness of their hearts. They're doing it because they A) Have enough problems without facing a humanitarian crisis of people fleeing a victorious Gaddafi; and B) Bringing down Gaddafi while the West sits on its collective thumbs would dramatically boost Egyptian prestige on the international scene and ensure the new Libyan government starts out in debt to Egypt.

[xerex]

Im honestly surprised that Egypt hasnt sent troops in already.


an oil rich puppet state in East Libya would do wonders for Egypt.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I don't think it's for altruism.

Nobody is claiming that the Egyptians are doing it out of the goodness of their hearts. They're doing it because they A) Have enough problems without facing a humanitarian crisis of people fleeing a victorious Gaddafi; and B) Bringing down Gaddafi while the West sits on its collective thumbs would dramatically boost Egyptian prestige on the international scene and ensure the new Libyan government starts out in debt to Egypt.

I think rather for the oil...

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Im honestly surprised that Egypt hasnt sent troops in already.


an oil rich puppet state in East Libya would do wonders for Egypt.

Egypt's military is pretty occupied right now . . . what, with running the entire country since they sent Mubarak off to retirement at his seaside resort at Sharm el-Sheik and all.

[Eulogy]

"We don't want to kill, we don't want revenge, but you, traitors, mercenaries, you have committed crimes against the Libyan people: leave, go in peace to Egypt," he said in an interview with Lyon, France-based EuroNews television. "Military operations are over. Within 48 hours everything will be finished. Our forces are almost in Benghazi. Whatever the decision, it will be too late."

The monster says this without a hint of irony and hypocrisy. His claims that the regime doesn't want to kill is plainly bullshit with mountains of evidence backing it up, ditto on the vengeance part, and the real traitors to the people have terrorized the country for decades and have now decimated it.

The powers who could have done something about this have failed; all of the innocent people whose deaths, whose sacrifices have been made to help ensure a better Libya, have been made in vain. When Gaddaffi croaks, it will be on a pile of corpses and anguish.

Libya has no reason to trust Western powers now. Hatred and anger could very well override greed as oil fields and refineries suffer mysterious accidents, made in an effort to hurt those who, through their inaction, permitted and condoned this great tragedy.

There should be fucking riots breaking out over this. The fact that this was allowed to happen in the first place is simply unconscionable.

If there is an afterlife, Gaddaffi and his spawn will not enjoy it.

[Big Orange]

Meanwhile in Bahrain...

Troops Attack Bahrain Protesters


MANAMA, Bahrain—Military troops and security forces opened a large-scale assault Wednesday against hundreds of anti-government protesters occupying a landmark square in Bahrain's capital, the Associated Press reported.

The assault came a day after Bahrain declared a three-month state of emergency and handed wide powers to the armed forces, as it moved to quell weeks of demonstrations by mainly Shiite protesters a day after the arrival of Saudi troops. It was unclear whether the Saudi troops were involved in the assault, the AP reported.

Police and military units fired tear gas as they pushed into Pearl Square, the center of the uprising against Bahrain's rulers since it began more than a month ago. Shooting was heard as the attack was launched shortly after daybreak, but there was no immediate word on casualties. Black smoke was seen rising from the square and helicopters flew overhead as protesters fled to side streets.

Tuesday, Bahrain temporarily withdrew its ambassador from Tehran, after Iran described the arrival of the foreign troops as an "occupation." Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia denied a report that a protester shot and killed one of its soldiers.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Meanwhile in Bahrain...

Troops Attack Bahrain Protesters


MANAMA, Bahrain—Military troops and security forces opened a large-scale assault Wednesday against hundreds of anti-government protesters occupying a landmark square in Bahrain's capital, the Associated Press reported.

The assault came a day after Bahrain declared a three-month state of emergency and handed wide powers to the armed forces, as it moved to quell weeks of demonstrations by mainly Shiite protesters a day after the arrival of Saudi troops. It was unclear whether the Saudi troops were involved in the assault, the AP reported.

Police and military units fired tear gas as they pushed into Pearl Square, the center of the uprising against Bahrain's rulers since it began more than a month ago. Shooting was heard as the attack was launched shortly after daybreak, but there was no immediate word on casualties. Black smoke was seen rising from the square and helicopters flew overhead as protesters fled to side streets.

Tuesday, Bahrain temporarily withdrew its ambassador from Tehran, after Iran described the arrival of the foreign troops as an "occupation." Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia denied a report that a protester shot and killed one of its soldiers.

And there's the other, much larger, aspect to this. The regimes of the Middle East are carefully watching what goes on in Libya. So far, Gaddafi is demonstrating that other nations of the world are content to stand by, wring their hands, and mumble mostly-empty threats of action while he claws his way back to power atop a heap of corpses. So now other countries, like Bahrain, are feeling free to be a little more unrestrained about using force to resolve their little disputes. The strongest words of condemnation about Bahrain bringing in Saudi troops to crack down on anti-government protesters have come from . . . are you ready for this . . . Iran (though this is more to do with the traditional Shia/Sunni enmity than any desire on Iran's part to see a flowering of democracy in their back yard.)

[Thanas]

There should be fucking riots breaking out over this. The fact that this was allowed to happen in the first place is simply unconscionable.

The west is fighting two wars at the same time atm. There is nothing to be done here. Even the US military is incapable of intervening at this moment.

[erik_t]

We would certainly have the capability to make some airstrikes happen, but that's not politically tenable. All of the plausible talk focuses on no-fly zones and such, which are vastly harder to keep up than sending in a few strike packages.

[Sea Skimmer]

It took about 200 planes to enforce two no fly zones over Iraq separated by a belt of heavy Iraqi air defenses. Fucking enforcing one over Libya which literally has rusting SAM sites is trivial. The US has over 2,000 tactical fighters, most of which are doing nothing at the moment. Any claim that we 'can't do this' is pure bullshit being made up by people with a political or economic ax against it. It has no military basis what so ever. All the more so since Libya SAMs are almost all in hardened fixed sites which will survive about 10 seconds against a cruise missile attack, assuming they even work. Hell 75% of what needs to be done could be done by one AEGIS cruiser.

[Block]

There should be fucking riots breaking out over this. The fact that this was allowed to happen in the first place is simply unconscionable.

The west is fighting two wars at the same time atm. There is nothing to be done here. Even the US military is incapable of intervening at this moment.

No we're really not, we could easily set up a no fly zone over Lybia. The issue is more along the lines of should we, and will any good really come of it?

[erik_t]

It took about 200 planes to enforce two no fly zones over Iraq separated by a belt of heavy Iraqi air defenses. Fucking enforcing one over Libya which literally has rusting SAM sites is trivial. The US has over 2,000 tactical fighters, most of which are doing nothing at the moment. Any claim that we 'can't do this' is pure bullshit being made up by people with a political or economic ax against it. It has no military basis what so ever. All the more so since Libya SAMs are almost all in hardened fixed sites which will survive about 10 seconds against a cruise missile attack, assuming they even work. Hell 75% of what needs to be done could be done by one AEGIS cruiser.

I don't think it's the number of aircraft that is argued to be the challenge, rather the distances involved. We don't necessarily have the equivalent of Saudi or Turkey. Assuming for the sake of argument that Malta was unwilling to host, it's about 650mi each way from Taranto to Surt. I don't suggest that these are exactly the relevant locations, but we're talking about substantial distances. You're certainly not going to go untanked in a F-16 and have four hours on station.

[Eulogy]

No we're really not, we could easily set up a no fly zone over Lybia. The issue is more along the lines of should we, and will any good really come of it?

A no-fly zone won't do much now, since the rebellion is done. Only an invasion or assassination will slay the beast in his lair now.

If Egypt doesn't excise the tumour, then good Libyans will have to resort to real dirty tactics and hit-and-run style attacks. When Gaddaffi is dead or wishing he was, Libya will not be too fond of the western powers, investments be damned. Treating people like assets tend to do things like that.

[Beowulf]

I don't think it's the number of aircraft that is argued to be the challenge, rather the distances involved. We don't necessarily have the equivalent of Saudi or Turkey. Assuming for the sake of argument that Malta was unwilling to host, it's about 650mi each way from Taranto to Surt. I don't suggest that these are exactly the relevant locations, but we're talking about substantial distances. You're certainly not going to go untanked in a F-16 and have four hours on station.

A likely location to have the no-fly zone enforced from is NAS Sigonella, in Sicily (there's a couple more Italian Air Force bases, but NAS Sigonella is American already, so would only need host country permission to start up, rather than trying to add USAF/USN aircraft to a foreign operated base). That's about 500 miles to cover most of the important bits of western Libya. This is less than half a quoted combat radius of a F-15C (which, incidentally, aren't used much in either OEF or OND as they are used only for air superiority, and we don't have much of a problem with that at those locations).

[Sea Skimmer]

I don't think it's the number of aircraft that is argued to be the challenge, rather the distances involved. We don't necessarily have the equivalent of Saudi or Turkey. Assuming for the sake of argument that Malta was unwilling to host, it's about 650mi each way from Taranto to Surt. I don't suggest that these are exactly the relevant locations, but we're talking about substantial distances. You're certainly not going to go untanked in a F-16 and have four hours on station.

Doesn't even matter, we already have a carrier and a marine assault ship off offshore as well as several AEGIS warships. Thats more then enough firepower to take out all air defenses and crater runways if we need too. I see zero reason why SPY-1 radar backed up by carrier fighters launched on demand cant shutdown all the air action we need dead. Libya is flying fucking Su-22s on maximum range missions and Hind helicopters.. even Marine Harriers can rape this. Furthermore if we did that and moved an AEGIS warship inshore the worthless Libyan navy might try to fire on it, allowing us to sink the blockade and maybe conduct a few 5in bombardments.

This is the fucking US navy against Libya MINUS its regular military! Give me a break people are going to be fucking mass murdered; and Gaddafi has already shown he knows how to conceal fucking piles of bodies! I see hilary Clinton on TV right now BTW, saying nothing but the UN must tell us and we wont even try. Also she claims they rebels aren't losing so this is becoming purely a matter of lies. The demand to take out all the air defenses alone is already a fucking lie, we never accomplished that in Bosnia or over Iraq. We lost an F-15E even while Saddam was fleeing his capital. Who fucking cares when we are throwing away men and money like crazy trying to win in Afghanistan?

[Lonestar]

Isn't our problem, it's in Europe's backyard, they can handle it, if only they express the political will.

[Sea Skimmer]

The two largest European military powers are pretty supportive on the matter, everyone else in Europe is a joke. Also its now being reported that four MSNBC reporters have gone missing. The other day an Al Jazeera new crew was ambushed with gunfire and RPGs and had one member killed. I'm sure Gaddafi has nothing to do with this, just like he didn't murder everyone on and below Pan Am Flight 103.

Also, dont let the rebels falling back so much in the desert fool you. This was a rebellion born in Benghazi, and Benghazi is a big city full of heavy buildings. They know if they give up at the least everyone who took up arms or formed the government is dead. This place isn't going to fall quickly and the bloodshed could rival everything in Japan.