Darth Tanner wrote:I'm still hopeful that Gadaffis regime will simply collapse when he runs out of money to pay for mercenaries/bribe for people not to riot.
EDIT: Spelling
Not likely. Gaddafi is used to being an international pariah. He'd be happy to build The Great Bloody Wall (of corpses) to wall off the rebel east, and then outlast the Western governments currently making unhappy noises about how he's cementing his hold on power with the blood of rebel traitors. It'll be just like Iraq, after the international community let Saddam Hussein ruthlessly suppress his own internal rebellion and wall off the troublesome Kurdish north with corpses after the first Gulf War.
On that note:
Gaddafi pushes eastward.
Auntie Beeb wrote:Rebels forced from Libyan oil port
Rebel near Sidra and Ras Lanuf, 10 March 2011 Rebels have been struggling to hold their ground amid fierce artillery attacks
Libyan rebels are fleeing the oil port of Ras Lanuf after sustained attacks by forces loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi.
Rebels were travelling eastwards in vehicles after coming under fire from rockets and shells, reports said.
Libyan state TV said pro-Gaddafi troops had also cleared rebels from the oil port of Sidra, west of Ras Lanuf.
In recent days, Col Gaddafi's forces have been trying to regain ground in the rebel-held east, as well as the town of Zawiya, west of Tripoli.
'Running away'
Meanwhile, France has become the first country to recognise the Libyan rebel leadership, the National Libyan Council (NLC), as the country's legitimate government.
It came as Nato met to discuss international military options in the Libyan conflict, including the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone.
There has been fierce fighting in Libya since mid-February, when opponents to Col Gaddafi's 41-year rule took many towns and cities in eastern Libya, in the wake of successful popular uprisings in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt.
One report on Thursday said that as they advanced on Ras Lanuf, tanks driven by pro-Gaddafi forces had moved to their easternmost position since the conflict began.
One rebel fighter told AFP news agency: "We've been defeated. They are shelling and we are running away. That means that they're taking Ras Lanuf."
Among those fleeing were staff at the town's central hospital, who had to hurriedly evacuate patients, AFP reported. Just one doctor remained, along with the body of a man killed in the fighting and pools of blood on the floor.
Zawiya is now reported to be either largely or wholly under the control of government forces, though journalists have been prevented from travelling to the town and it is hard to get an accurate picture of the result of several days of intense fighting there.
BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says fears that the military balance may be shifting in Col Gaddafi's favour have prompted calls for urgent international action.
Losing those oil facilities is a big blow to the rebel forces. If Gaddafi can consolidate his hold on those oil production facilities in the near-east, he can cut off the flow of oil to power plants in the far east. Also, Gaddafi's hold on the Libyan west is very strong, and is backed by deep tribal ties.
Gaddafi's military muscle concentrated in elite units.
NPR wrote:Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has deliberately kept his army weak in recent years, but he has bolstered elite forces that are personally loyal to him, Italian analysts say.
As the former colonial power in Libya, Italy has maintained a close interest in the country. The Italian intelligence services are relatively well informed about what's happening there; an Italian intelligence report on Gadhafi's military strength was recently presented to Parliament.
"We know very little, but we know one thing: His military machinery is not so big," says analyst Alessandro Politi.
After international sanctions on Libya were lifted in 2004, Gadhafi was able to refurbish his country's weapons systems, Politi says. But fearing a coup, Gadhafi kept the regular army relatively weak.
"The real nucleus of his security is around the presidential guards, mercenaries and a few other elite units who were directly controlled by his family and his tribe or his money," Politi says.
Tribal Loyalty
Along with an unknown number of foreign mercenaries, there are said to be four elite brigades with a total of some 10,000 men. One stands out: the 32nd Armored Brigade under the command of Gadhafi's son, Khamis. It's estimated to have 4,000 to 5,000 highly trained and very loyal fighters, armed with Russian-made tanks and rocket launchers.
Military analyst Carlo Jean says the other elite brigades are composed of members of the Libyan leader's tribe and another tribe loyal to him.
"Keep in mind that Gadhafi's tribe, the Gadhafa, is made up of a million people, as is that of the other tribe loyal to him, the Warfala," Jean says.
After seizing power in 1969, Gadhafi went on a spending spree — buying thousands of tanks, armored vehicles and cannons; hundreds of aircraft; and four submarines. In 1979, the mainly desert country with a population at the time of 2.5 million owned more fighter planes than Great Britain.
Libya had also stored 1,000 metric tons of Semtex, a key element of terrorist bombs in the 1980s.
With an army of some 50,000 men and highly sophisticated weapons — and with the dream of forging pan-Arab unity — Gadhafi launched three wars over two decades and lost them all.
Another Spending Spree
The Libyan army was demoralized, as was Gadhafi himself. His biographer, Angelo Del Boca, says the Libyan leader felt his people had not understood the utopian project he had laid out in his Green Book.
"When I last saw Gadhafi, I asked him how successful his Green Book had been in Libya. He said, sadly, 'It was a total failure. Libya is still dark, not green as I had hoped,' " Del Boca says.
For Gadhafi, Del Boca says, "dark" meant a country still riven by tribal loyalties. But with the army no longer trustworthy, tribal loyalties became key to Gadhafi's own political survival.
And with Libya's return to the international stage seven years ago, Gadhafi again went on a spending spree for his elite brigades.
"Libya is chock full of weapons, but we don't know how well they're maintained," says Jean, the military analyst. "Today, Ukrainians do the maintenance, but they're not as skilled as the East Germans were during the Cold War."
Italian analysts believe Gadhafi is still in control of his military machine and has reserves of tanks and artillery. He can continue to order airstrikes on rebel positions, but analysts say Gadhafi does not seem to have the logistical support to push eastward, into rebel-held territory.
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