Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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Ralin
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Ralin »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67144061
Gaza hospital: What video, pictures and other evidence tell us about Al-Ahli hospital blast
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12 hours ago

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Israel-Gaza war
Damage at a hospital in Gaza
IMAGE SOURCE,REUTERS
By Paul Brown, Joshua Cheetham, Sean Seddon and Daniele Palumbo
BBC Verify
A deadly blast at the crowded Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City is feared to have killed hundreds of people.

The Hamas-controlled Palestinian authorities in Gaza immediately blamed Israel, claiming it was a deliberate air strike. Israel has denied involvement.

Amid the claim and counterclaim, getting to the truth is harder than ever.

BBC Verify is trying to unravel what is and isn't known - looking at video footage, still imagery and other evidence, including eyewitness accounts. In addition, a BBC journalist has been to the blast site, where there is limited access.

New information is emerging all the time, so we will continue to update this article as we learn more and talk to experts about the evidence.

It is also important to note that as well as the physical fighting, this conflict is playing out as an information war. This is not the first time authorities in Israel and Gaza have given completely different accounts of an explosion. We are also looking at their various claims and statements.

The blast
The explosion at the hospital happened at around 19:00 local time (16:00 GMT) on Tuesday. A 20-second video which circulated on social media purporting to show the blast was the first significant piece of visual evidence to emerge of the incident.

In it, you can hear the whistling sound of an incoming projectile, followed by an explosion and a huge fire.


Media caption,
Watch: Moment of explosion near hospital in Gaza City

Live footage from the Al-Jazeera media network aired at 18:59 local time showed a bright light rising in the skies above Gaza. It flashes twice before drastically changing direction, and it then explodes.

An explosion is then seen on the ground far away, followed by a much larger explosion closer to the camera operator, which the BBC has geolocated.

Some commentators have suggested it is from a rocket which appears to explode or disintegrate.

Other footage which surfaced on social media channels showed what appears to be the same blast from different angles and distances.

We contacted 20 think tanks, universities and companies with weapons expertise. Nine of them are yet to respond, five would not comment, but we spoke to experts at the remaining six.

We asked whether the available evidence - including the size of the explosion and the sounds heard beforehand - could be used to determine the cause of the hospital blast.

So far, the findings are inconclusive. Three experts we spoke to say it is not consistent with what you would expect from a typical Israeli air strike with a large munition.

J Andres Gannon, an assistant professor at Vanderbilt University, in the US, says the ground explosions appeared to be small, meaning that the heat generated from the impact may have been caused by leftover rocket fuel rather than an explosion from a warhead.

Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, agrees. While it is difficult to be sure at such an early stage, he says, the evidence looks like the explosion was caused by a failed rocket section hitting the car park and causing a fuel and propellant fire.

Mr Gannon says it is not possible to determine whether the projectile struck its intended target from the footage he has seen. He adds that the flashes in the sky likely indicate the projectile was a rocket with an engine that overheated and stopped working.

Valeria Scuto, lead Middle East analyst at Sibylline, a risk assessment company, notes that Israel has the capacity to carry out other forms of air strike by drone, where they might use Hellfire missiles. These missiles generate a significant amount of heat but would not necessarily leave a large crater. But she says uncorroborated footage shows a pattern of fires at the hospital site that was not consistent with this explanation.

Visual evidence from the blast site
The BBC was able to match details of buildings and the layout of the Al-Ahli hospital site with publicly available satellite imagery, to establish the hospital was the scene of the blast.

Based on available evidence, it appears the explosion happened in a courtyard which is part of the hospital site. Images of the ground after the blast do not show significant damage to surrounding hospital buildings. What the images do show are scorch marks and burnt-out cars.

An annotated graphic of damage at the hospital
The hospital is owned and run by the Anglican Church.

Canon Richard Sewell, the dean of St George's College in Jerusalem, told the BBC that about 1,000 displaced people were sheltering in the courtyard when it was hit, and about 600 patients and staff were inside the building.

Map showing hospital site
The victims
BBC reporter Rushdi Abualouf has been to the the Al-Ahli Hospital. Witnesses there report scenes of devastation, and say bodies are still being collected.

One man told him that women, children and elderly people were at the hospital when the explosion happened.

We are still analysing images and footage of the victims to determine what they can tell us about the blast from the nature of their injuries.

The BBC has viewed extremely graphic images of victims and survivors at the explosion site, which show catastrophic injuries.

Pathologist Derrick Pounder, a founder member of Physicians for Human Rights in the UK and an expert in the field of conflict injuries, viewed some of the images.

"The overall pattern of scattered injuries is what would be expected from shrapnel resulting from an explosion," he said.

But he also said it was not possible to clearly make out all of the injuries in the limited number of verified images available.

The Palestinian health ministry said on Wednesday 471 people were killed in the blast.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said this number has been deliberately inflated, but has not released its own assessment of how many died. Because of lack of access to the site for independent organisations, it is difficult to verify the number killed.


Media caption,
BBC reporter Rushdi Abualouf at the scene of Gaza hospital blast: "People are still collecting body parts"

What we don't know yet
One of the most critical pieces of evidence is the nature of the crater left behind by the explosion.

The IDF say that the absence of a large crater, or blast damage to adjacent buildings, proves that the explosion was not caused by its weapons.

In the image below, you can see one small crater and we are investigating the other marks.

Annotated image of a crater at the hospital
Another important part of missing evidence is missile fragments. Projectiles are often identifiable by the wreckage of their shell, and they can be used to determine the projectile's origin. But in this case, we have not seen that evidence.

The IDF has released a recording of what it says is an intercepted conversation between two Hamas militants acknowledging the hospital was hit by a projectile fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). PIJ is the second-largest militant group in Gaza, and supported Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel.

It is not possible to independently verify this recording. In a statement, PIJ denied any involvement and blamed Israel for the blast
Fucking Christ, apparently there were about a thousand people camped out in the courtyard that got hit.

Also I'm not a bomb person, but I'm seeing people elsewhere saying that air bursts are actually especially good for killing people. So lack of a big crater doesn't mean much in terms of proof against it
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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Ralin wrote: 2023-10-19 04:15amFucking Christ, apparently there were about a thousand people camped out in the courtyard that got hit.
WHERE IS THE BLOOD, THEN.

People bleed a LOT. I've seen the photos from inside some of the kibbutzes that were assaulted when this all opened up and the amount of dark "stuff" on the floor is pretty impressive.

If 1K were sleeping in the courtyard; where is the:

1.) Debris from almost a thousand people sleeping -- blankets, pillows, etc; especially after a bomb burst over them and the survivors scattered or crawled off, leaving behind what little possessions they have.

2.) BLOOD. There would be tons of that.

Photos of the site show only the normal amount of debris from a small explosion.

I think the Palestinians need to fire their propaganda chiefs and get anyone from the current Russo-Ukrainian war to do it instead.

PROPAGANDA HAS TO HAVE AN ELEMENT OF TRUTH IN IT. YOU CAN'T JUST BLATANTLY AND UTTERLY LIE FOR PROPAGANDA TO WORK AGAINST ANYONE WITH MORE THAN A 70 IQ.

Good propaganda is below. There will be a short quiz at the end of the class, students.

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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by AniThyng »

""PROPAGANDA HAS TO HAVE AN ELEMENT OF TRUTH IN IT. YOU CAN'T JUST BLATANTLY AND UTTERLY LIE FOR PROPAGANDA TO WORK AGAINST ANYONE WITH MORE THAN A 70 IQ.""

I sincerely doubt Muslims the world over are buying the story that Israel did it because their IQ is <71.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by LaCroix »

The muslim world is buying it because they gleefully would murder Israel over anything, or even no reason. And the news they are fed are pretty one-sided, to boot. At the same time you will see that NONE of these Muslim nations declare they would take Palestinian refugees. They categorigally REJECT taking ANY refugees from them. Tells you all you need to know.

Regarding this failed PR attempt.

How would you even fit 500-1000 people on that parking lot, between all the cars?
Because obviously, that blast radius is less than a 100 feet- maybe even less than 50 feet, since the third car from the impact site seems to be quite ok.

Even if you were having people standing there like sardines in a tincan, you couldn't fit more than a hundred or maybe 200 into that space.
Yet, we see no blood, no torn clothes, luggage, blankets, medical utensils, shoes, viscera; or anything, while the cars are still standing there, untouched, all other debris untouched, while people claimed to have evacuated 500+ bodies through and over this wreckage.

But obviously, HAMAS is a pinnacle of integrity, and all their statments are immediately to be believed without evidence and even contrary to evidence resurfacing after the articles have been printed. (By the media that is at the same time believed to be conrolled by israel ,somehow, just to remind people of that common talking-point.)

At the same time we have literal video proof that the missiles were fired by HAMAS over the hospital towards an israeli CITY (where they were intended to indiscriminately bomb civilians - which is ok, because that's what HAMAs does, right, so we can't be mad at them for that) and one can be seen fuzzing out, followed by a detonation a few seconds later, but that doesn't count, because Israeli evidence can not be trusted.

Russia would hope their propaganda would be as successful as the palestinian one. They started the war by fucking around and massacring 1400 civilians, and then cried foul when they found out. ANd they will continue to find out until Israel is sure they learned to fuck around. The only reason it is ONLY 1400 dead israeli civilians is the fact that Isreas has decades of preparation for missile attacks and is shooting down almost everything that gets lobbed at israeli civilians, day by day. Even right now, as we speak. But that's ok, since they can shoot them down, we can't blame HAMAS for still firing indiscriminately into cities.

This will only end once Isreal says so. An attack of that magnitude can only lead to a conclusive response that ends with the end of Hamas. Israel is not going to go back to status quo and wait for the next batch of missiles being produced.

Btw..

Simple historical fact - if the side you are on is parading dead bodies of civilians, talking about the total elemination of the entire race of their enemy, and film themselves gleefully doing these things, you are on the wrong side of history.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by MKSheppard »

So....

The world has become jaded and desensitized by the last two years of war footage from Ukraine. We've seen it all.

Innocent people in vehicles eating a full 20 round burst of 30mm 2A42 autocannon High Explosive, Inciendary.

Dogs being eaten.

Rape, murder and rape.

Mass artillery barrages killing dozens at the start of the war; now transitioning to irregular missile warfare killing dozens (half of a village just got wiped out recently)

Stuff in Ukraine has been so wild the last two years that people's moral outrage meters are flatlined.

This is something I think the Israelis aren't quite grokking yet.

Their military/intel establishment is too full of über-boomers like Netanyahu who can't process that the world has changed and that TTP have to change as well, instead of pulling out propaganda tactics and messaging from the early 2000s which worked when the US was still reeling from 9/11.

The Euros have made Ukraine THE thing for their politics the next I guess ten years -- everything is now focused on Eastern Europe so the EU doesn't really care about the middle east now I would imagine; so that leaves only the US in Israel's corner; and the "We must support Ukraine!" arguments in US politics have eroded support for supporting Israel in any contingency now.

In addition to the aforementioned points (Aid for Ukraine fight draining US politics) (Euros focused on Eastern Europe Now), there's also Israel's behavior the last ten years (2014-Present) that have left a bad taste in people's mouths.

Israel steadfastly refused to send weapons to Ukraine, starting with Ukraine's attempts to buy drones from them in 2014. Unofficially, this is because Israel wanted to have a "free hand" in Syria so they can blow up random people in Syria, without having to worry from Russian intervention by Russian air defenses, etc protecting the Assad regime.

Yet, at the same time, Israel basically opened the spigot for Azerbaijan in terms of munitions (high end drones and missiles) -- which is a direct attack on Russian interests in the Caucasus region -- Armenia and Artsakh were Russian aligned, while Azerbaijan was Turkish aligned.

It's pretty much the most blatant act of realpolitik I've seen so far in my lifetime; all the more so that in the winter of 2022 when the Russians were rampaging towards Kiev and were looking like they would take over Ukraine rather shortly -- Poland, Italy, Germany and the U.S. asked Israel for permission to send their already bought for, paid for and stockpiled Israeli-made Spike ATGMs to the Ukrainians and received negative replies (due to arms control export laws the producing country has final veto). It was only because the US and UK were able to flood Ukraine with NLAW and Javelin that this wasn't catastrophic.

Likewise, in the runup to our present Russo-Ukrainian war, Ukraine asked for Iron Dome (which the US Co-funded and Co-Produced BTW) to prevent civilian casualties from mass artillery/rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities. Israel steadfastly refused to sell or allow US production to go to Ukraine; and went on and on about how Iron Dome wouldn't work for Ukraine...when Iron Dome is a $20-30K interceptor solution, vs the what $1M or $2M medium end and above SAM solution that Ukraine is now being forced to use to shoot down Shaheed suicide drones.

Now, all of these are forgettable -- but you need about ten years to "forget" -- and it's just too "fresh" in people's minds; hence worst possible time for Israel as pretty much every nation in the US/EU/NATO views Ukraine's survival as an existential matter, even in the face of Russian nuclear wagging. What happens to people who go against the bandwagon? They get ignored by the bandwagon.

There are really only two reasons I support limited military aid to Israel at this point:

A.) They're a Major Non Nato Ally (MNNA).

B.) They just had a 9/11 scale terror attack. The population of NYC was 8~ million in 2000; Israel's population is 9M now. A lot of nations across the world offered aid to the US after 9/11 twenty years ago. Debts must be repaid, etc.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by LadyTevar »

SHEP.

The only reason this thread is being allowed right now is because it's CURRENT EVENTS ONLY.

No bringing up what happened 10, 15, 20 yrs ago IVP.

Yes, it might be relevant, but it's also the reason there's an IVP Moritorium in the first place. Past History Cannot Be Changed. It happened, we leave it alone and don't debate it to death.

Stay on CURRENT TOPIC, stay on CURRENT EVENTS, and I won't have to get out the BanHammer.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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LadyTevar wrote: 2023-10-19 07:49pm SHEP.

The only reason this thread is being allowed right now is because it's CURRENT EVENTS ONLY.

No bringing up what happened 10, 15, 20 yrs ago IVP.
Is this current events enough?

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/19/us-isr ... apons-gaza
The Pentagon plans to send Israel tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells that had been destined for Ukraine from U.S. emergency stocks several months ago, three Israeli officials with knowledge of the situation tell Axios.

...

Flashback: Starting in early 2023, the U.S. began drawing down 155mm artillery shells from its considerable ammunition stockpiles in Israel to send to Ukraine.

At the time, the Israeli military told then-Prime Minister Yair Lapid and then-Minister of Defense Benny Gantz that there was no immediate scenario in which Israel would need an emergency supply of shells.

That all changed on Oct. 7, Israeli officials said.

Between the lines: The ammunition that had been destined for Ukraine was part of a U.S. weapons stockpile that is kept in Israel as part of an agreement between the countries.

Only U.S. military personnel have access to the weapons storage sites. But according to the agreement between the countries, Israel can use the ammunition in a war scenario in short order, with U.S. approval.
Back in May 2022...

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/israel ... any-russia
Israel turned down a U.S. request to allow Berlin to supply Ukraine with anti-tank missiles produced in Germany with Israeli technology under an Israeli license, two U.S. and Israeli officials said.

Colin Kahl, U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, met with Eshel and raised the Biden administration’s efforts to get countries around the world to supply Ukraine with weapons, according to the U.S. and Israeli officials.

Kahl asked Eshel if Israel would give permission to Germany to transfer “Spike” anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, the officials said.

The missiles are produced in an Israeli-owned factory in Germany. According to the license, Israel must approve any transfer of the missiles to a third party.

Eshel rejected the request, telling Kahl that Israel will only supply Ukraine with nonlethal military equipment, the officials said.

A senior Israeli official said Israel is concerned Russian soldiers will be killed by Israeli-made weapons, which could lead to Russia harming Israeli security interests in Syria.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

Looks like the St. Porphyrius church has now been bombed. You may recall that on the 10th, there were a lot of false claims it had been. This time, it looks like its actually happened. Unfortunately, it was also full of refugees seeking shelter.
THE PATRIARCHATE OF JERUSALEM CONDEMNS ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES TARGETING HUMANITARIAN INSTITUTIONS IN GAZA

The Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem expresses its strongest condemnation of the Israeli airstrike that have struck its church compound in the city of Gaza.

The Patriarchate emphasizes that targeting churches and their institutions, along with the shelters they provide to protect innocent citizens, especially children and women who have lost their homes due to Israeli airstrikes on residential areas over the past thirteen days, constitutes a war crime that cannot be ignored.

Despite the evident targeting of the facilities and shelters of the Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem and other churches – including the Episcopal Church of Jerusalem Hospital, other schools, and social institutions – the Patriarchate, along with the other churches, remain committed to fulfilling its religious and moral duty in providing assistance, support, and refuge to those in need, amidst continuous Israeli demands to evacuate these institutions of civilians and the pressures exerted on the churches in this regard.

The Patriarchate stresses that it will not abandon its religious and humanitarian duty, rooted in its Christian values, to provide all that is necessary in times of war and peace alike.
Source

I'm not going to address most of LaCroix's piece since we've already had the Red Texting but I will just take the opportunity to remind everyone that propaganda also exists in a context, and the current context is that there is a mass bombing campaign in the area by the IDF and IAF, that hospitals were told to evacuate due to the likelihood of being struck in the fighting, that the specific hospital was repeatedly warned, and that it and other health and humanitarian facilities have been repeatedly struck during the hostilities to the extent the UN's various agencies have been protesting strikes on their well-marked positions. This is not a clean war, and strong conditions exist to predispose people to accept claims it was an air strike. In the case of the hospital bombing, the immediate (then retracted) claim by an Israeli spox of responsibility didn't help matters either. We might or might not be seeing the same with the church bombing.

So basically: Kindly keep the fuck out of my thread with your rants designed to get it closed unless you're actually going to look at the situation properly yourself.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

"Doctors keep their scalpels and other instruments handy, for emergencies. Keep your philosophy ready too—ready to understand heaven and earth. In everything you do, even the smallest thing, remember the chain that links them. Nothing earthly succeeds by ignoring heaven, nothing heavenly by ignoring the earth." M.A.A.A
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by loomer »

Unless there is a reason to suspect that the American intelligence community is inflating the numbers, it seems that the Al-Ahli hospital blast did cause a lot of civilian deaths afterall.
The US intelligence community assesses that there likely were between 100 to 300 people killed in the blast at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, and there was “only light structural damage at the hospital,” according to an unclassified intelligence assessment obtained by CNN that adds more detail to the initial assessment released Wednesday finding Israel was not responsible for the strike.

The unclassified assessment sent to Capitol Hill by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence adds more detail to the US intelligence community’s initial assessment released Wednesday that Israel was not responsible for the strike on the hospital. ...

he US intelligence community also estimates the number of deaths from the hospital at the “low end of the 100-to-300 spectrum,” according to the assessment, a lower number than figures initially cited by Hamas of more than 500.

The intelligence community “observed only light structural damage at the hospital,” with no observable damage to the main hospital building and no impact craters, according to the assessment.

“We see only light damage to the roofs of two structures near the main hospital building, but both structures remained intact,” the assessment states. ..

“We continue to work to corroborate whether the explosion resulted from a failed PIJ rocket,” the ODNI assessment states.

“We are still assessing the likely casualty figures and our assessment may evolve, but this death toll still reflects a staggering loss of life,” the assessment states. “The United States takes seriously the deaths of all civilians, and is working intensively to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.” ...
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Broomstick »

MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-18 07:07pm
Ralin wrote: 2023-10-16 10:41amYeah but that can change. Maybe in a decade or three Israel's allies will be less willing or able to have their back, and that could get bad for them if they also can't whoop all their neighbors on their own anymore.
You've won. :P You just don't know it yet.

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/13/12056270 ... hamas-poll

In the US, only 48% of Gen Z/Millennials strongly support Israel in this, as opposed to 80%+ in Baby Boomerdom.

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2014/0729 ... poll-finds

On the whole, 35 percent of Americans believe Israel has responded appropriately to the conflict, and 15 percent say the nation has not gone far enough. Twenty-five percent, on the other hand, say Israel has overreacted.

Given that in the past few days hundreds of Jews in the US have been arrested for protesting against Israel's current actions the polls might be capturing disgust at Netanyahu's government's actions rather than true anti-Israel sentiment.

This article is sensationalist and simplistic but it illustrates how Israel's actions have divided the Jewish American community.

Algazeera has a much calmer and less biased report on the protests.

And here is a Times of Israel article, clearly butt-hurt that not all American Jews are marching in lockstep with Israel. How dare they think for themselves and have different opinions! Of course, at this point I expect bias in any Israeli media.

In sum: be careful of drawing any long-term conclusions from the response to an event that has split the staunchest supporters of Israel outside of Israel itself down the middle. I'm used to hearing arguments at local Jewish events, the old saw "two Jews three opinions" has some truth to it, but I've never seen so much shouting and literal table-pounding.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Broomstick »

MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 07:31pm The world has become jaded and desensitized by the last two years of war footage from Ukraine. We've seen it all.

Innocent people in vehicles eating a full 20 round burst of 30mm 2A42 autocannon High Explosive, Inciendary.

Dogs being eaten.
I've spoken to survivors of the siege of Leningrad. The dog-eating stage is fairly early in the "complete siege" process. The situation could get a lot worse there if significant aid doesn't arrive soon.
MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 07:31pm Stuff in Ukraine has been so wild the last two years that people's moral outrage meters are flatlined.
I'm not convinced most people have a calibrated "moral outrage meter". I do think a lot of people are just exhausted and focused on their own problems 99% of the time.
MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 07:31pmThis is something I think the Israelis aren't quite grokking yet.
Nope. They're in an information bubble.
MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 07:31pmThe Euros have made Ukraine THE thing for their politics the next I guess ten years -- everything is now focused on Eastern Europe so the EU doesn't really care about the middle east now I would imagine;
That actually makes a lot of sense - the Ukraine-Russia war is in their own backyard, after all, and has much more immediate ramifications for Europe than for anywhere else.
MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 07:31pmIn addition to the aforementioned points (Aid for Ukraine fight draining US politics) (Euros focused on Eastern Europe Now), there's also Israel's behavior the last ten years (2014-Present) that have left a bad taste in people's mouths.
Yep. Including a bad taste among the demographic that has historically been most supportive of Israel.
MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 07:31pmIt's pretty much the most blatant act of realpolitik I've seen so far in my lifetime; all the more so that in the winter of 2022 when the Russians were rampaging towards Kiev and were looking like they would take over Ukraine rather shortly -- Poland, Italy, Germany and the U.S. asked Israel for permission to send their already bought for, paid for and stockpiled Israeli-made Spike ATGMs to the Ukrainians and received negative replies (due to arms control export laws the producing country has final veto). It was only because the US and UK were able to flood Ukraine with NLAW and Javelin that this wasn't catastrophic.
With an added dose of irony that Israel wouldn't support a nation that had a Jewish president, despite Israel demanding/assuming unquestioning support from Jews all over the world. The people running Israel right now seem to have forgotten that the majority of Jews don't live in Israel (55-60% are in the diaspora) and aren't subjects of the Netanyahu government. Lose the support of the diaspora and what international support Israel has will rapidly evaporate.

Throwing Ukraine under the bus and now committing war crimes has alienated the more liberal end of the American Jewish community from Israel. Aside form the Ultra-Orthodox Jews who tend to favor Republicans, the majority of American Jews skew liberal.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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US Warship Intercepts Missiles from Yemen

TL:DR -- The USS CARNEY, a guided missile destroyer, shot down 3 cruise missiles and several drones that were fired from Yemen, presumably towards targets inside Israel. It's believed the missiles and drones were fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels, who are being backed by Iran. The Houthi have been in a 7yr battle with Yemen's government, which is backed by the Saudis.

Also, there have been drone and rocket attacks on US and International bases in Iraq and Syria, with so far only minor injuries.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 08:02pm
LadyTevar wrote: 2023-10-19 07:49pm SHEP.

The only reason this thread is being allowed right now is because it's CURRENT EVENTS ONLY.

No bringing up what happened 10, 15, 20 yrs ago IVP.
Is this current events enough?
Yes. Thank you.

As Loomer requested, please keep the rants out of this thread, they do not belong here and will get this thread locked, as well as get the ranter banned.

This goes for EVERYONE. Dalton and I are not playing games with this.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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The hospital bombing continues to be contentious. Forensic Architecture are heavy hitters, so I don't know these can just be dismissed without a proper explanation.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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Broomstick wrote: 2023-10-20 04:53am
MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 07:31pm The world has become jaded and desensitized by the last two years of war footage from Ukraine. We've seen it all.

Innocent people in vehicles eating a full 20 round burst of 30mm 2A42 autocannon High Explosive, Inciendary.

Dogs being eaten.
I've spoken to survivors of the siege of Leningrad. The dog-eating stage is fairly early in the "complete siege" process. The situation could get a lot worse there if significant aid doesn't arrive soon.
The British found quite a fondness for "roof rabbit" (that is, cat) during the Second World War.

Hamas frees American mother and daughter held hostage in Gaza
Hamas released two American citizens on Friday it had been holding hostage in Gaza, Israel has confirmed.

United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres made an appearance at Egypt's Rafah crossing, while truckloads of aid wait to be allowed into Gaza.

Distributing the aid comes with challenges, but humanitarian organisations are pleading for the border to re-open as the Gaza Strip plunges further into crisis.

More than 3,700 Palestinians and 1,400 plus Israelis have died, according to their respective officials, as the Israeli Defence Minister said the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will "soon see" the enclave "from the inside".

Two American citizens who were being held hostage in Gaza have been released, Israel has said.

Judith Raanan and her 17-year-old daughter, Natalie Raanan, who were kidnapped during the Hamas October 7 attack on Israel, have been handed over at the border and are on their way to an Israeli military base to be reunited with family.

Judith and Natalie, from Chicago, were taken hostage while visiting relatives in Nahal Oz for Simchat Torah, a festive Jewish holiday that marks the conclusion of the annual reading of the Torah.

They were in the kibbutz of Nahal Oz, near Gaza, when Hamas - a proscribed terror group - and other militants stormed out of the territory into southern Israeli towns, killing hundreds and abducting 203 others.

Hamas said it released them for humanitarian reasons in an agreement with the Qatari government.

US President Joe Biden said he is "overjoyed" with the release of Judith and Natalie, adding they will have the full support of the US government as they "recover and heal".

“Two of our abducted are home,” Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.

"We are not giving up the effort to bring all of the hostages and missing people home. At the same time, we are continuing to fight until victory.”

The release comes amid growing expectations of a ground offensive, which Israel says is aimed at rooting out Hamas militants who rule the Gaza Strip.

Relatives of other captives welcomed the release and, in a statement, appealed for the remaining hostages to be freed.

"We call on world leaders and the international community to exert their full power in order to act for the release of all the hostages and missing,'' it said.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which helped facilitate the release of Judith and Natalie, called "for the immediate release of all hostages".

"We are ready to visit the remaining hostages and to facilitate any future release following an agreement reached by the parties," the ICRC said in a statement.

"While held in captivity, hostages must be allowed to receive humanitarian assistance and medical care.

"They must be given the opportunity to contact their families. Families separated from their loved ones endure agony no matter what side of the divide they are on.

"Our commitment to helping people who have been kidnapped, detained, or missing is unyielding."

Earlier on Friday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres pleaded for aid to be allowed to start making its way into Gaza, as trucks filled with supplies wait at Egypt's border.

Gaza has been plunged into a humanitarian crisis as its population is currently without clean water and electricity, while facing a bombardment of Israeli missile strikes.

More than 3,700 Palestinians and 1,400 plus Israelis have died, according to their respective officials, as the conflict continues into its fourteenth day.

On Thursday, President Biden confirmed Israel had agreed to send 20 trucks, stocked with food, water, and medical supplies, into Gaza via the Rafah crossing at the border with Egypt.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told broadcasters on Friday the crossing should reopen "imminently".

He said the UK, along with its allies, have "prioritised consistently" re-opening the Rafah crossing, adding: "It's been a feature of all my conversations."

Mr Sunak also called for the need to "intensify dialogue" over the Israel-Gaza crisis as "we all have a shared interest in peace".

'In a situation like this, it's important to intensify dialogue, because we all have a shared interest in peace,' Rishi Sunak told broadcasters

Mr Guterres made a speech at the crossing in Egypt on Friday, issuing an urgent appeal.

"These trucks are not just trucks - they are a lifeline," he said. "They are a difference between life and death for so many people in Gaza.

"And to see them stuck here makes me be very clear: what we need is to make them move. To make them move to the other side of the wall.

"It is impossible to be here and not feel a broken heart."

The reason behind the hold-up at the crossing remains unclear.

Gaza's main hospital is expected to run out of fuel in the next 24 hours and the region has already run out of water.

Aid workers have said every hour that relief to the Gazan people is delayed will cost lives. Medical charity Doctors Without Borders have warned that the wounded in Gaza are in danger of dying in the "next few hours".

Late on Thursday evening, an explosion struck a Greek Orthodox church housing displaced Palestinians, resulting in deaths and dozens of injuries.

Mohammed Abu Selmia, director general of Shifa Hospital, said dozens were hurt at the Church of Saint Porphyrios, but could not give a precise death toll because bodies were still under the rubble.

Meanwhile, Israeli leaders are rallying troops on the Gaza border, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant saying they will "soon see" the enclave "from the inside," according to a statement from his office.

There have been looming fears of an Israeli ground invasion in Gaza, whose civilians are still waiting on life-saving supplies.

Meanwhile, violence has spread across other countries. A rocket attack near Baghdad International Airport, Iraq, on Wednesday added to a growing number of attacks targeting US and coalition forces in the Middle East.

'These trucks are the difference between life and death for so many people in Gaza,' the UN's secretary-general said from the Rafah crossing in Egypt

Two drones targeted the al-Tanf garrison in Syria, and on Friday, US officials said an American Navy warship intercepted missiles and drones launched from Yemen by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement.

Downing Street has also updated the number of Britons killed in Hamas's assault on Israel.

A spokeswoman for the prime minister said: "We can now confirm that at least nine British nationals were tragically killed in last week's terrorist attacks.

"And a further seven British nationals are missing, some of whom are feared to be among the dead or kidnapped."
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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Israel aims to cut Gaza ties after war with Hamas
By Henri Astier
BBC News


Israel has suggested that the long-term aim of its military campaign in Gaza is to sever all links with the territory.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said that once Hamas had been defeated, Israel would end its "responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip".

Before the conflict, Israel supplied Gaza with most of its energy needs and monitored imports into the territory.

The statement comes as Israel continues its strikes on Gaza and aid remains blocked on the border with Egypt.

The bombardments are a response to attacks by Hamas gunmen on Israel on 7 October, in which at least 1,400 people were killed and 203 taken hostage. Israel is now poised to launch a ground offensive.

On Friday, Mr Gallant told a parliamentary committee that the first stage of the campaign was meant to destroy Hamas's infrastructure, according to a statement from his office.

Israeli forces, he added, would then launch "operations at lower intensity" to eliminate "pockets of resistance".

The third phase, he said, "will require the removal of Israel's responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip, and the establishment of a new security reality for the citizens of Israel".

Although Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, the UN regards the strip - along with the West Bank and East Jerusalem - as occupied land and considers Israel responsible for the basic needs of its population.

Israel has previously allowed Gazans to cross the border for work. It has also overseen imports into the territory to prevent weapons from reaching Hamas.

Following the 7 October attacks it cut electricity supplies, as well as deliveries of food and medicines. The UN calls the situation there "beyond catastrophic".

The US and Egypt have reached a deal allowing some supplies to start bringing relief Gaza's 2.2 million residents.

An initial convoy of 20 trucks had been expected to enter southern Gaza through the Rafah border crossing on Friday, but they are still stuck on the Egyptian side.

Humanitarian organisations say much more aid is needed.

On Friday UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the crossing with a plea for aid trucks to be allowed into the territory.

"These trucks are not just trucks - they are a lifeline, they are the difference between life and death to many people in Gaza," he said. "What we need is to make them move."

Meanwhile Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has confirmed that he will join several world leaders at a summit in Cairo on Saturday aimed at achieving a ceasefire.

The event, hosted by Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, will involve talks on trying to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on a two-state solution.

Those attending will also include Mr Guterres and representatives from the EU, as well as several Arab and European countries.
It looks like Israel wants everyone in Gaza dead and doesn't care what anyone else thinks.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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Under the cover of the war, the expansion of illegal settlements is intensifying.

Given the mass arrests and violence in the West Bank, I don't think we'll see any improvement on that front either.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Broomstick »

EnterpriseSovereign wrote: 2023-10-21 12:37am
Broomstick wrote: 2023-10-20 04:53am
MKSheppard wrote: 2023-10-19 07:31pm The world has become jaded and desensitized by the last two years of war footage from Ukraine. We've seen it all.

Innocent people in vehicles eating a full 20 round burst of 30mm 2A42 autocannon High Explosive, Inciendary.

Dogs being eaten.
I've spoken to survivors of the siege of Leningrad. The dog-eating stage is fairly early in the "complete siege" process. The situation could get a lot worse there if significant aid doesn't arrive soon.
The British found quite a fondness for "roof rabbit" (that is, cat) during the Second World War.
The people I spoke to remarked that past a certain point, after the pets all disappeared, there was a sudden absence of rats and mice. After that, one did not ask where human bodies went.

But those in Leningrad were able to obtain water. Gaza is in an arid area. People might die of thirst before they die of lack of food. I expect that is already occurring.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Zwinmar »

I expect that the MEU in the area will be used for humanitarian relief in Gaza once things shake out a bit. At least that seems to be the best case, I could also see a UN security/aid zone set up but that is assuming there is anyone left.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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Broomstick wrote: 2023-10-20 04:36amIn sum: be careful of drawing any long-term conclusions from the response to an event that has split the staunchest supporters of Israel outside of Israel itself down the middle. I'm used to hearing arguments at local Jewish events, the old saw "two Jews three opinions" has some truth to it, but I've never seen so much shouting and literal table-pounding.
IDK, Bibi seems to have speed run the GW Bush 2001 to GW Bush 2005 course in about... two weeks.

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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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Saudi Prince slams Hamas, Israel, and The West
A speech made by Prince Turki al-Faisal of Saudi Arabia this week on the current violence in the Middle East is unusually frank for a senior member of the Saudi royal family.

It has been widely acknowledged as the clearest indicator yet of the Saudi leadership's thinking on the situation.

Prince Turki, a widely respected elder statesman in Saudi circles, has publicly condemned both Hamas and Israel for attacking civilians, following Hamas's 7 October attack on southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli bombardment of Gaza. There were no heroes, he said, only victims.

Such is the groundswell of Arab anger at those Israeli air strikes that Prince Turki, who was addressing a US audience at Rice University in Houston, is a rare Arab voice of criticism of Hamas in the current climate.

The group's acts, he said, went against Islamic injunctions not to harm civilians. The majority of those killed or kidnapped by Hamas were civilians.

Prince Turki, a careful, thoughtful ex-diplomat and spy chief, balanced his condemnation of Hamas with that of Israel, which he accused of "indiscriminate bombing of innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza" and the "indiscriminate arrest of Palestinian children, women and men in the West Bank".

He took issue with the US media's use of the phrase "unprovoked attack" in reference to the 7 October raid, saying: "What more provocation is required.. than what Israel has done to the Palestinian people for three-quarters of a century?"

He added that "all militarily occupied people have a right to resist occupation".

Prince Turki also condemned Western politicians for "shedding tears when Israelis are killed by Palestinians", but refusing to "even express sorrow when Israelis kill Palestinians".

President Joe Biden has since said, during his visit to Israel, that the US mourned all innocent victims.

So what lies behind this speech, which the prince must have known would be widely reported?

It is unlikely that he would have spoken without first checking in with his country's Royal Court, run by the all-powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who held talks with Rishi Sunak on Thursday.

Prince Turki has quite a pedigree. His father was the popular and modernising King Faisal, who was assassinated in 1975. His brother was Saudi Arabia's longstanding foreign minister until his death in 2015.

Prince Turki's US and British education at Princeton, Cambridge and Georgetown has given him an invaluable perspective on Western culture and thinking, as well as providing him with lifelong contacts amongst decision-makers in Washington and Whitehall.

He went on to become Saudi Arabia's spy chief, running the foreign intelligence department for 24 years, with special responsibility for Afghanistan.

Following the 9/11 attacks in 2001 he became Saudi Arabia's ambassador in London and then Washington.

In London, his media spokesman at the embassy was the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was eventually murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul by Saudi government agents in 2018. Saudi Arabia blamed this on an unauthorised "rogue operation".

Now aged 78, with no formal position in the Saudi government, Prince Turki al-Faisal nevertheless provides an intriguing insight into Saudi thinking on the few occasions when he speaks publicly at international forums.

Saudi Arabia's rulers don't like Hamas. In fact, many of the governments in the region don't like it either. The rulers of Egypt, Jordan, UAE and Bahrain see Hamas and its revolutionary brand of so-called "political Islam" as a threat to their secular rule.

The Palestinian Authority, based on Yasser Arafat's Fatah party, was effectively chased out of Gaza by Hamas in 2007. Some of its members were thrown off the roofs of high buildings during a short-lived internecine conflict.

Although Hamas maintains a political office in Qatar its main backer is Iran, which has long been a historic rival to Saudi Arabia.

Although the Saudis and Iranians formally agreed to end their dispute in March this year, there remains considerable mutual mistrust between them. Despite this, they have jointly condemned Israel's bombing of Gaza and reaffirmed their support for a Palestinian state.

It is hard to believe now but only two weeks ago, prior to the Hamas raid, Saudi Arabia was well on the way to normalising ties with Israel, just as the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have done. This is now on hold.

Several analysts believe that Hamas's deadly raid into Israel was partly prompted by a desire to derail that normalisation that would have left Hamas and Iran sidelined in a new Middle East.

Will things ever return to the status quo in the region?

Right now, it is hard to see that happening, with a wounded Israel in no mood for compromise and nervous Arab governments eyeing the growing anti-Israel protests on the streets.

But when the current conflict in Gaza ends, as it must do, then it may well be Saudi Arabia's deep pockets that help fund its reconstruction. It will be worth watching Prince Turki's speeches for the Saudi view of whatever comes next.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

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The wording of flyers and voice messages received by the inhabitants of Gaza is being disputed by the IDF. Al Jazeera's claim (and that of a good number of others on the ground) is that it warns that anyone found in Gaza City will be presumed to be a terrorist, be likely to be designated a terrorist, or be considered a collaborator (with all that entails), while the IDF's claim is that it basically just says 'you'll probably get caught in the crossfire and die'. Could any of our Arabic reading members take a look and see which translation is closer?

UN, WHO, and WFP joint statement calling for ceasefire and unfettered humanitarian access.
NEW YORK/GENEVA/ROME, 21 October 2023 – “A first, but limited, shipment of life-saving humanitarian supplies from the United Nations and the Egyptian Red Crescent entered Gaza today on 20 trucks, passing through the Rafah Crossing.

“It will provide an urgently needed lifeline to some of the hundreds of thousands of civilians, mostly women and children, who have been cut off from water, food, medicine, and other essentials. But it is only a small beginning and far from enough. More than 1.6 million people in Gaza are in critical need of humanitarian aid. Children, pregnant women and the elderly remain the most vulnerable. Nearly half of Gaza’s population are children.

With so much civilian infrastructure in Gaza damaged or destroyed in nearly two weeks of consistent bombings, including shelters, health facilities, water, sanitation, and electrical systems, time is running out before mortality rates could skyrocket due to disease outbreaks and lack of healthcare capacity.

“Hospitals are overwhelmed with casualties. Civilians face mounting challenges in accessing essential food supplies. Health facilities no longer have fuel and are running on small amounts they have secured locally. These are expected to run out in the next day or so. Water production capacity is at 5 per cent of normal levels. Pre-positioned humanitarian supplies have already been depleted. Vulnerable people are at greatest risk and children are dying at an alarming rate and being denied their right to protection, food, water and health care.

“Nearly one-third of the population of Palestine was food insecure before this conflict in Gaza. Today stocks in shops are nearly exhausted and bakeries are closing, while tens of thousands of people are displaced and unable to cook or safely purchase food.

“We call for a humanitarian ceasefire, along with immediate, unrestricted humanitarian access throughout Gaza to allow humanitarian actors to reach civilians in need, save lives and prevent further human suffering. Flows of humanitarian aid must be at scale and sustained, and allow all Gazans to preserve their dignity.

“We call for safe and sustained access to water, food, health - including sexual and reproductive health, and fuel, which is necessary to enable essential services.

“We call for the protection of all civilians and civilian infrastructure in Gaza, including healthcare facilities.

“We call for the protection of humanitarian workers in Gaza who are risking their lives for the service of others.

“And we call for the utmost respect of international humanitarian law by all parties.

“Gaza was a desperate humanitarian situation before the most recent hostilities. It is now catastrophic. The world must do more.”


Note also that it is no defence if the deaths occur from disease rather than direct violence. I will refrain from citing the most relevant precedents on that front due to IvP concerns, but note the ICC's Elements of Crime for Article 6(c)(4) specifically includes the 'deliberate deprivation of resources indispensable for survival,such as food or medical services, or systematic expulsion from homes.' At present, Israel's restrictions on aid prohibit the flow of it to the North where a considerable number of people remain, and the ongoing bombing of Rafah and refusal to permit more than a trickle by both Israel and Egypt may constitute just such a deliberate deprivation even in the South, and consider that it also satisfies the criteria of calculation required in Article 6(c). I also note that while Israel has pointedly refused to be bound by the ICC, any such protestation is actually of little relevance to violation of ius cogens offences where only the precise boundaries may be debated and not whether there exists an offence at all.

We also now have to keep an eye on the mass detention of Palestinians by Israeli security and defence forces. Unfortunately, torture and mistreatment is rife in these detentions (and also in PLA and Hamas custody, for that matter - it is a very ugly zone of suffering on that front) and I wish Darius Rejali wasn't retired so he'd be ready to bear witness again.
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Re: Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

Post by Solauren »

More and more, I'm wondering if the Israeli leader is not just using the attack as an excuse, that some will find palatable, just to annihilate that area and everyone in it. Possibly with the intention of claiming and building in it.
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